If Chris is town, I'll obviously wolfside tonight so game ends and we both win.
There are obviously Starks on the wolf team - shoot whichever of LnG/Rhand is a villager tonight. At least one of them is, if Chris is a wolf here. That'll get Starks their alt win condition, at least. Do not shoot Vaimes, he's mine because he's super obviously town, and this keeps you guys from having to out yourselves to give me a target.
If Chris is a wolf uh.
Ignore this post, as I'm going back to being a good townsiding doggo and my reads are right that I posted in thread, and town is gonna win pretty handily from here.
Just covering my bases, no hard feelings.
Isn't this a contradiction since this whole paragraph is talking about town Chris world?
Winds, not sure why you keep throwing out 4-man scumteams when it almost certainly has to be five scum.
I don't think there has to be 5?
Think game makes more sense if there's 4.
But it doesn't really change much beyond makes it more likely one of Shinichi/LnG is a wolf too.
If it's 4 then today isn't possibly mylo? 12 > townchris = 11 > 2 town deaths toNight = 9 > 9 = 4v4v1 and OP states mafia/town wincons are when all threats are eliminated or it's inevitable. 4v4v1 wouldn't be inevitible and so even with worst case scenario the game couldn't possible be over during Night actions which shadow has said is possible. Unless there is somehow ANOTHER killing ability that hits town toNight. But no.
And then when it's 5 you need to start thinking a little bit outside your world view because now you have to include shin AND LnG who is almost guaranteed to be town, then when you shoot me toNight and I flip town, now you have another slot to fill and have to start considering GJ/xy/towncore.
I concur with the idea that XY should attempt the dayvig on Chris. Um...unless there's a chance that if XY vigs Chris we then have to lynch Winds. I guess that wouldn't be the end of the world, though.
Hunger, I feel that my unclaimed ability really is better unclaimed. If Shinichi disagrees/everyone feels like it's necessary, I don't mind claiming it, but I'd rather not, especially since we're locked in to Chris or Winds.
For the first part, yeah that's why I said Rhand/KJ. But you are correct, we could just end up lynching Winds which wouldn't be terrible. Especially considering I'm guessing the "could be mylo" situation accounts for him hitting town toNight and wins him the game if he does.
@shin - You don't think there is a scum Stark. You don't think LnG can be scum. You don't think xy is scum. So your scum team is Chris/Rhand/GJ/Hunger/? Vaimes is the only one left, but pretty sure you have said he isn't scum either? You have to be wrong about something because you don't even have enough PoE names to fill out the scum team in that case.
OK, yeah, per this post I'm guessing tom hasn't claimed anything other than his flavor/faction. I don't really have time to go through 25 pages of an ISO to find out though.
@shin - tom is probably a bad rolecop because he is so likely town, but I guess if he is deep scum then he is one of the most likely to be a RB if they do have one since I think he is the only unclaimed person in the game? Pulling his ISO after this post to see if I can find any claim. GJ is a great target since his Dr. claim is what is essentially keeping him out of PoE. xy is a bad target because we know he has a killing ability and if you just get that ability at most you would learn he has more shots which we can probably check toDay like I said above.
EBWOP: Also if xy was lying because he didn't want to shoot it's mostly likely he is scum that didn't want to be forced to shoot a buddy. Which in turn makes it less likely Chris is scum.
@everyone
Shin has a good point in saying he doesn't believe xy is 1 shot. Not in that he is probably right, but why aren't we picking a vig target to have him try? KJ/Rhand? Make him post the bolded Dracarys in thread to prove it's one shot. If it's not we probably get a scum kill and wiggle room if Chris somehow flips town.
Also also, Rhand being in the PoE of everyone is one thing, but he also was the counterwagon to Grape D1 and seemed to have momentum with the Starks alt wincon and then that somehow just faded. Need look at how that went down again.
Also, I don't think 4 man scum team is possible. Given that the stated win condition for town/mafia is when they outnumber or it's inevitable to outnumber. So if it's a tie + SK at 4v4v1 it wouldn't be over since SK could vote with town.
I really wish LnG hadn't used his ability today. It clamped down on discussion and analysis pretty hard it feels like.
I'm also like. Concerned that people aren't trying to push the "LyNcH tHe CoNfIrMeD nOn-ToWn" angle, I'd have expected at least 1-2 of his buddies to try and test out the traction for that.
Maybe it's just an element of town needs my kills to climb back into the game, and wolves are hoping I'll wolf side/miss/they can block me if they think I might hit?
Maybe Chris was even like 'just bus me I don't even care anymore' in wolf chat.
Who knows, I guess.
And why am I putting this much effort into a game as a neutral when odds of me winning are pretty low the way I'd like to win at least. (with town, pack surviving etc).
Fun fact. I brought that up in my mylo theory post trying to see if anyone would jump on it, but no one did.
Unrelated but I'm kind of impressed by Hunger this game. I feel like I caught him super easy when he randed wolf the last time I played with him, and I read through his ISO twice last night before switching my kill from him to Tubba, and came away pretty impressed. Just figure he deserves some props for high quality posting even if the wolf team seems to have gotten kind of brutally PoE'd out despite being in good shape going into today.
(Watch Cantrip end up being a deep wolf or something and this is why the PoE doesn't quite fully make 100% sense)
You caught me easy because I'm bad as scum. My posting recently with the state the game was in is so far from my scum game it's pretty ridiculous. But that's self meta and doesn't really help.
The important thing is you and others have thought my posts are pretty towny, so I should at least be a little further down the PoE than KJ and Rhand who are I think consensus? Tom asked you to not shoot Rhand so he can go for 5 wincons. I'd ask you to shoot Rhand because he has the highest possibility of being scum instead of shooting me to give tom a shot at 5 wincons. I'd like to be around tomorrow to help figure this game out.
Granted, if Chris flips town somehow, you have no incentive to do that since you could just win with scum by killing me. But if that happens and you still want to win with town, Rhand is a good shot.
@Cantrip - Your joke was great and I'm sorry I wasn't around to partake! I hadn't read the PM yet so I was like, "ooooOOoOOOO, no way!" That said, you do still have an unclaimed part of your role that shin is keeping under wraps no? Is it still not shareable?
@tom - I take your silence as you aren't going to share the thing?
And then when it's 5 you need to start thinking a little bit outside your world view because now you have to include shin AND LnG who is almost guaranteed to be town, then when you shoot me toNight and I flip town, now you have another slot to fill and have to start considering GJ/xy/towncore.
Second part is good. No need to claim then.
@everyone
Shin has a good point in saying he doesn't believe xy is 1 shot. Not in that he is probably right, but why aren't we picking a vig target to have him try? KJ/Rhand? Make him post the bolded Dracarys in thread to prove it's one shot. If it's not we probably get a scum kill and wiggle room if Chris somehow flips town.
The important thing is you and others have thought my posts are pretty towny, so I should at least be a little further down the PoE than KJ and Rhand who are I think consensus? Tom asked you to not shoot Rhand so he can go for 5 wincons. I'd ask you to shoot Rhand because he has the highest possibility of being scum instead of shooting me to give tom a shot at 5 wincons. I'd like to be around tomorrow to help figure this game out.
Granted, if Chris flips town somehow, you have no incentive to do that since you could just win with scum by killing me. But if that happens and you still want to win with town, Rhand is a good shot.
@Cantrip - Your joke was great and I'm sorry I wasn't around to partake! I hadn't read the PM yet so I was like, "ooooOOoOOOO, no way!" That said, you do still have an unclaimed part of your role that shin is keeping under wraps no? Is it still not shareable?
@tom - I take your silence as you aren't going to share the thing?