Wizards of the Coast has reprinted many recent modern staples and as we all know Return to Return to Ravnica is coming soon. I've been playing magic for a quite about 8 years but only own a few shock lands from draft and packs. Some prices of the cards have already dropped but should I invest in them now or wait till after the new Ravnica Set is released? My fear is that they might go up in price after the reprint because of Standard.
I would mostly get just what you need or what you lean towards. I believe the highest Shocklands went up to (before RTR was printed) was $30 and the lowest they've been was $6. So right now, we're in between that. I don't think it will go up much from now, but who knows? With extreme popularity for a deck, it could easily propel them near $20 each, depending on which ones of course.
Make sure to get lots of opinions. That's the most important thing.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
There is no investing in modern magic. It's more of a cyclical pattern following seasons based on the formats being pushed and what products are getting released. Shocks are a huge gamble because if they do not get a reprint speculators could make a killing unloading them after the fall set is spoiled. If they do show up in the fall set you will have a very short window to unload them before the prices collapse.
As a player, set a threshold on price per card and stick with it. If the card is within your budget and you need them, buy them. That is the best advice I can give.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
1. All ten checklands are in standard. The synergy between those and shocklands will not only drive demand through the roof in general, but I predict we will see several 3-4 color decks (which means a demand for 4-6 shocks per deck)
2. Because of that checkland/shockland synergy...I would not be surprised if WOTC didn't reprint them. I would not be taken aback at all if WOTC said "we know you all love shocklands, but we have a new idea" and just provided something flat out worse.
Either way, though, they're going to be more expensive. I agree with Colt though in that you shouldn't think of it as some investment where you can make a big profit. If you want shocks for play and want to save some money, that's a better way to handle this mtg finance stuff.
I think that it'll be worth getting a set of any you don't already have if they get reprinted in Ravnica 3.0. I think its pretty safe to assume they will. I bought a set of each during RTR block and they were pretty cheap tehn
Collectors want the Reserve List to stay and Players want the reserve list gone.
Players got what they wanted in Modern--the whole idea that magic is for playing, not collecting.
Wizards basically started reprinting modern cards into oblivion.
You should not expect anything in Modern to ever go up again long term. If something goes up, it will be for a short-term.
Short term profits are pure speculation. You not only have to be correct about the direction of the price, you have to be correct within a given time frame.
Don't invest in modern. If you need the cards to play, buy them.
Yes they will be cheaper after the reprint. Yes its possible that standard will increase demand for the shocklands.
No that won't last for the duration of standard. If you can afford to wait, then wait.
Collectors want the Reserve List to stay and Players want the reserve list gone.
Players got what they wanted in Modern--the whole idea that magic is for playing, not collecting.
Wizards basically started reprinting modern cards into oblivion.
You should not expect anything in Modern to ever go up again long term. If something goes up, it will be for a short-term.
Short term profits are pure speculation. You not only have to be correct about the direction of the price, you have to be correct within a given time frame.
Don't invest in modern. If you need the cards to play, buy them.
Yes they will be cheaper after the reprint. Yes its possible that standard will increase demand for the shocklands.
No that won't last for the duration of standard. If you can afford to wait, then wait.
When you have a format that still has cards that cost more than 80 bucks a piece, the format has not been reprinted into oblivion.
The problem with this kind of thinking, is that there's really no end to it.
It doesn't matter how cheap magic gets, the reprint crowd will still advocate something like:
When you have a format that still has cards that cost more than 60 bucks a piece, the format has not been reprinted into oblivion.
When you have a format that still has cards that cost more than 40 bucks a piece, the format has not been reprinted into oblivion.
When you have a format that still has cards that cost more than 20 bucks a piece, the format has not been reprinted into oblivion.
When you have a format that still has decks that cost more than 400 bucks a piece, the format has not been reprinted into oblivion.
When you have a format that still has decks that cost more than 200 bucks a piece, the format has not been reprinted into oblivion.
When you have a format that still has decks that cost more than 100 bucks a piece, the format has not been reprinted into oblivion.
The problem with this kind of thinking, is that there's really no end to it.
It doesn't matter how cheap magic gets, the reprint crowd will still advocate something like:
When you have a format that still has cards that cost more than 60 bucks a piece, the format has not been reprinted into oblivion.
When you have a format that still has cards that cost more than 40 bucks a piece, the format has not been reprinted into oblivion.
When you have a format that still has cards that cost more than 20 bucks a piece, the format has not been reprinted into oblivion.
When you have a format that still has decks that cost more than 400 bucks a piece, the format has not been reprinted into oblivion.
When you have a format that still has decks that cost more than 200 bucks a piece, the format has not been reprinted into oblivion.
When you have a format that still has decks that cost more than 100 bucks a piece, the format has not been reprinted into oblivion.
Actually, what happens is the reprint crowd grows smaller and smaller until all of the reasonable voices are on the side of "okay that's pretty reasonable, we're good." There is no literal end to it, but there's a point of general consensus. People who play on a budget exist in tiers. For instance, I refuse to pay more than $30 for a single card. I think the existence of $80 cards is mostly the result of wannabe stock traders trying to make a quick buck while being too wimpy to play the actual stock market. See, the real stock market has risk. Anything you buy can tank two months later. Odds might be low, but it can happen. MtG is this weird place where people want to play the market like its the NYSE while also wanting reprints low to preserve their investments, like these are CDs. The investor types want high profit margins and minimal risk, and that just isn't a thing in finance.
Collectors want the Reserve List to stay and Players want the reserve list gone.
Players got what they wanted in Modern--the whole idea that magic is for playing, not collecting.
Wizards basically started reprinting modern cards into oblivion.
You should not expect anything in Modern to ever go up again long term. If something goes up, it will be for a short-term.
Short term profits are pure speculation. You not only have to be correct about the direction of the price, you have to be correct within a given time frame.
Don't invest in modern. If you need the cards to play, buy them.
Yes they will be cheaper after the reprint. Yes its possible that standard will increase demand for the shocklands.
No that won't last for the duration of standard. If you can afford to wait, then wait.
When you have a format that still has cards that cost more than 80 bucks a piece, the format has not been reprinted into oblivion.
This requires empirical data to fully assess. In theory it should work as you say.
But in reality, it just hasn't been so.
Maybe it's because people love to find something to complain about. Maybe it's because an argument can be made that any amount is too much for a game and 'just' cardboard.
I've been playing magic since 1994. I remember a time when black lotus went for about 70 dollars, moxes for 30, and duals for 3. I distinctly remember thinking "pfft, 30 bucks for a mana?"
Back in 94, people would spend $150 building a new deck. I remember thinking that was just crazy. For that kind of money you could have purchased a new SNES and link to the past.
There's a reason why so few people took mtg to the cleaners and bought out every single dual land they could find. The perception we have about magic today didn't exist back then. It's the same reason why I refused to pick up lotuses or moxes when they were in the hundreds. Even as recently as 2008, underground sea was still going for $60 a piece. 10 years later, it goes for about $600.
The point I'm trying to make is that it works both ways. Price perception and price memory are as concrete as emotions. People, included myself, refused to pick up every dual land we could when magic was young because we thought it was too expensive. By 1995, when dual lands were "discontinued" and Wizards printed 4th edition, duals, also known as multilands at the time, rose from a buck or two to a strong 5 bucks each. If we thought duals were too expensive back in 94, we really thought duals went crazy when they went for 5 each in 95! $5 each? rip off.
So when you say there's an equilibrium when a sufficient number of reasonable people will come to a consensus, I have to disagree. That has not been my experience. Instead what seems to happen is when the price of a card drops, that new price becomes the new perception of what it's worth. The price of the card on tcgplayer/SCG is then judged as cheap or expensive against the "new" perception. The inevitable end state is that people always whine and complain.
To be fair, there might be a period of time when people were initially happy with the new price. When thoughtseize was reprinted, people initially felt happy they were getting a $70 card for $10 bucks. Now it's $20, and people think they're just picking up a $20 card for $20.
Suppose I want to pick up a tarmogoyf and I think the following:
$70 dollars for a card? ugh. too expensive. That's like what? $280 for a playset? GG
Wizards still needs to reprint more if they want to maintain business.
If I feel that way, what just happened? Better yet, what didn't happen? I did NOT feel happy that I was able to pick up a formerly $120 card for $70. The fact that 'goyfs used to be 120 is a point lost on me. Instead I'm focusing on now, and now I feel 280 for a playset is too pricey. Let's face it. I have a point. 280 for cardboard IS pricey.
The point I'm trying to make is not whether goyf is too pricey or not. Frankly I think it is. I'm not made of money and there's a reason I don't own a playset of 'goyfs.
The point I'm trying to make is that Wizards capitulating to complaints over price is an endless wasteland. It really makes nobody happy in the long run. Whatever happiness i derived from obtaining a 120 card for 70 is yesterday's news.
But by going on a reprint tear, Wizards has damaged the perception of the secondary market over their non-reserve list cards by so much, there's no point in holding onto them.
That's the reason why I advocated to OP, never buy any magic cards until you need them. As a general rule, the longer you wait, the cheaper it gets.
Wizards really damaged the "collectible" part of the card game, giving the players what they wanted. And are players happy? Or will they simply find something else to gripe about. Giving into players gripes about price is so short sighted.
Let's talk about the way things used to be. I don't want to sit around and complain without offering a solution. And I think the best solution is what Wizards did for years--being very conservative in their reprints.
When is a card more pricey? When a goyf is $70 dollars a copy but will sell for $30 when you're done? Or when a goyf is 80 dollars, but will sell for $90 when you are done?
The funny thing is, $70 a goyf seems cheaper than $80 a goyf. But when the math works out in the end, I will be poorer with the $70 goyf than with the $80 goyf because I could sell at a slight profit.
People always forget this subtle point. The cost of magic isn't just the upfront costs. The total cost of magic = amount you buy the cards for - amount you can resell your cards for.
Wizards going on a reprint tear hasn't made magic cheaper, it's simply shifted the costs from resell to upfront. You win on the upfront costs, but lose out when you resell!
Second the opinion of not investing in Modern. I've sold out of a lot of the more expensive stuff, it will all be reprinted eventually and the costs will decrease.
The funny thing is, $70 a goyf seems cheaper than $80 a goyf. But when the math works out in the end, I will be poorer with the $70 goyf than with the $80 goyf because I could sell at a slight profit.
People always forget this subtle point. The cost of magic isn't just the upfront costs. The total cost of magic = amount you buy the cards for - amount you can resell your cards for.
Wizards going on a reprint tear hasn't made magic cheaper, it's simply shifted the costs from resell to upfront. You win on the upfront costs, but lose out when you resell!
But that supposes that your enjoyment of the card is solely based on how much money you can sell it for. This (in my opinion) is part of the problem. I would rather people be able to pick cards up cheaply, so everyone can play what they want.
Legacy and vintage are hardly played because people can't afford the cards. That doesn't seem good for the game.
Prices need to come down in my estimation. They need a more robust, more consistent Modern reprint schedule to drop these.
Buy the Shocks if you want/need them to play. If you are dead set to "invest" in them, get the original versions, they always hold the most value to collectors.
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Playing since 1994: Currently MAGS (HomeBrew),Standard & Pauper (Pioneer and Modern are degenerate trash formats)
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
Except that I collected and played with all of these cards for years with the knowledge that should i want to get out, i could (to a dealer) for at least half what i invested in. I played Standard, Modern, Extended and Legacy since 2007, investing in my collection and playing every weekend across the country. I sold 75% of my collection after MM15. I could no longer expect to receive back anything close to 50% should the reprint chain continue. I wasn't playing 10+ decks a week so i was forced to consolidate on my investment in the game to be able to continue to play.
The problem isn't just reprints though. Reprints were needed to match the boom of the playerbase. There are more foil mythics printed today than some of these sets print runs. Any smart player from my era saw this coming in 2012-2014 when the playerbase boomed. 90% of the non-legacy cards that have become outragous in price are due to a redistribution of collection priorities from players like me. I could have sold 10 modern decks for 5 legacy decks and made a safer and wiser investment in playing magic. I sold out instead, because I don't play as much magic anymore, despite cards being more avalible. The only format i can play anymore is modern. The reprint policy by wizards has priced out everyone from the formats they want to play.
This coupled with the terrible two years of standard has made magic an unatrractive game for new players to play and invest in. You cannot as a new player anymore put money into the game in the form of a deck and have it carry you into a new deck in X months. I started playing extended with All-In-Red. I used the pieces from it to build 3 more decks and so on. You cannot do that anymore, nothing holds value and decks share so little numbers of cards in modern anymore.
Prices need to come down in my estimation. They need a more robust, more consistent Modern reprint schedule to drop these.
Buy the Shocks if you want/need them to play. If you are dead set to "invest" in them, get the original versions, they always hold the most value to collectors.
There's no question that modern is still expensive in terms of upfront cost.
But total cost in magic isn't as simple as Goyf cost 70, Shocklands cost 15.
The resell value is the second critical part of the equation which determines your costs.
If the resell value of goyf is 30, MTG is expensive. If the resell value of goyf is 80, mtg feels expensive, but actually isn't. In fact the costs are sustainable. Players who are loyal to the game get rewarded.
In other words, being conservative with reprints, giving mtg players faith that their cards are actually collectible, rewards players who are loyal to the game and keeps costs manageable to those loyal players. The problem with this system is that it makes it hard for newcomers to enter the game.
But here's why that's not as bad as it seems.
Let's say wizards reprints a ton, lowering upfront costs. Going back to my example:
-Goyf is 40, but you'll get back 10 for it.
Yes, this system will attract new players better than a system where Goyf is 70 and you'll get back 80 for it. The problem is those new players won't stick around. They won't stick around because there's no reward in being loyal to the game. They'll play for a bit and move on. At this point magic is just like every other game out there. A sink of time and money.
On the other hand if staples go up in value slowly, you attract fewer new people, but the people who stick with the game notice their collections going up in value. They want to hold onto their cards because they tend to up go over time. They can keep exploring the game because the high resell value lets them trade for other cards. Most of all, in this system you actually stop losing your loyal customers.
The game is vibrant when magic doesn't feel like I'm riding a sinking ship.
Yes, this system will attract new players better than a system where Goyf is 70 and you'll get back 80 for it. The problem is those new players won't stick around. They won't stick around because there's no reward in being loyal to the game.
You happen to be looking through the narrow view of value only on this one. It may be the case, but maybe they WILL stick around because their decks are competitive, they have fun with them AND they win them prizes or money.
Cost of entry will become more and more exclusive, playership will dwindle, and eventually prices will come down as the format dies and people look to sell out at whatever they can get or will just sit on the cards taking them out of circulation.
A robust yearly Modern Masters reprint set is needed, one very much like the first MM set. Or certain staples continue the road to 150 a piece or more and Modern turns into Legacy part 2.
I guess we have to agree to disagree. No harm, no foul.
So back to the original post, again, buy them if you need them to play and get the original Ravnica ones if you want to "invest" or the original foil Ravnica shocks as they should retain most of their monetary value if they get reprinted.
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Playing since 1994: Currently MAGS (HomeBrew),Standard & Pauper (Pioneer and Modern are degenerate trash formats)
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
When is a card more pricey? When a goyf is $70 dollars a copy but will sell for $30 when you're done? Or when a goyf is 80 dollars, but will sell for $90 when you are done?
The funny thing is, $70 a goyf seems cheaper than $80 a goyf. But when the math works out in the end, I will be poorer with the $70 goyf than with the $80 goyf because I could sell at a slight profit.
People always forget this subtle point. The cost of magic isn't just the upfront costs. The total cost of magic = amount you buy the cards for - amount you can resell your cards for.
Wizards going on a reprint tear hasn't made magic cheaper, it's simply shifted the costs from resell to upfront. You win on the upfront costs, but lose out when you resell!
As a former Legacy player. I can say that the prices of some cards in that format exploded because of the reserved list, so I left. Went to Modern and the prices are much better. Hmm, as for the issue of reprinting.. I think WoTC is still doing just fine on that... there is no over reprinting happening yet. The Masters sets and the revival of the core set has helped bring in a supply of cards, so more people can enjoy Modern. For example, Eidolon of the Great Revel used to be almost 20$, but a reprint cut the price to 4$... the ones who got Eidolons for 20 each maybe sad now, but I would assume many more people would be happy because they now got Eidolons for cheaper at 4$. Even some budget Burn lists can now have Eidolon.
Since you've used goyf as an example. Yeah, I lost out on that one.. the two I own got the first for 76 and the second for around 63. Goyf is now hovering around 50. Well, but I'm still glad to have those two because for a time.. goyf was a 150$ card, that reprints helped to bring down the price. Could never afford them if they stayed at 150 each, but WoTC made them more affordable with reprints. They add muscle to my BGx deck, so buying is not really a waste.
The thing is wizards isn't concerned with the price of a card on the secondary market in the same way players are. WoTC has a lot of information that the market doesn't have access to, such as the number of copies printed, along with data estimates such as how many cards are opened during the life cycle of the set, how many copies remain sealed in unopened boxes, how many copies of a card are typically lost, damaged, or taken out of circulation with time, etc. Basically, they measure Scalding Tarn on the same scale as Path to Exile as far as when the card needs a reprinting. The reason some cards on the market are so expensive is simply expectations on the people holding onto the card. The idea is that if a card is in a lot of deck lists and is popular in a format like modern, than the price should be higher because modern players will pay more. Battlebond is in a similar boat with Brightling and arcane artisan: Since the cards appeared in legacy deck lists speculators bought up copies to relist at higher prices since they know those players will pay a higher price. The main difference between that and modern, though, is that the legacy crowd is smaller, so the prices can't stay stable at the inflated prices the people trying to spike the cards want them to sell at, so the prices drop with time. Unfortunately, once these spikes happen, it raises the floor on the cost of the card that spiked.
All of this inflation on the cost of a card due to rampant speculation is not typically the concern of WoTC. WoTC wants to reprint cards when their data shows that the card is heavily used, has reached a point in it's life where the attrition will have an averse effect on a given format, or it simply is needed to make a set work or sell. If anything, they like the high prices on cards from speculation because it generates motion on the marketplace and keeps it alive.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
There's only two types of Shocklands that are worth "investing" in - the original Ravnica: City of Guilds originals (preferably in foil, but even the normal ones are fine) and the Zendikar Expeditions (I personally feel like with all factors involved around the whole Masterpiece system they chose to end, they are price-protected by their circumstances). Any other version (which basically amounts to the RTR ones, foil or not) are going to be in for a turbulent price ride over the years/decades depending on reprints.
Okay, that's my direct answer to the opening question, from my own standpoint as a player. As for the whole market-reprint-pricing debate, I'll just put my own statement on it:
Based on the current printing patterns of WotC, the whole reprinting "meta" is a very delicate balance and from what I see, WotC is trying to make it less delicate over time (whether they're successful or not is very up to the individual and it can also be argued considering the longevity of the game, taking MM13 as a marker, 5 years still isn't enough to even make a judgment).
They made the biggest mistake back then (the RL) that they can/will no longer repair (on the technicality they basically outright stated that themselves, not in any random possible concept usable, because that's like arguing we can achieve world peace by installing a hive mind) and they made a "smaller" mistake with literally every card not on the List prior to "the reprint era" (basically Masters and Supplementary products like Conspiracy and Battlebond).
Honestly, the game kept itself regulated pretty well in its earlier stages because of 2 factors - Core Sets and the fact MTG wasn't as big (both in terms of total card pool and participants). But the second factor is not a lasting one and eventually Core Sets alone would not be able to support regulating a larger card pool with a larger player base. Also, their biggest mistake was also a knee-jerk reaction to a backlash of a reprint back then and so, let's not pretend that did put a lot more cautiousness on cards not the List over the years between then and the "reprint era".
So, what's the problem? This era literally created "too much confidence" in price sustenance, which led to the whole "investment" and "players vs investors" situation that have more or less erupted in the recent few years. As people have pointed out, it's not completely negative (it does retain player loyalty a lot better in an industry that churns out endless competitors by the day) but clearly WotC let the situation balloon up before recognizing the issue (rather than preemptively predicting it) - of course, to be fair it's a company and there's no guarantee there were enough people consistently around to recognize the problem in time, let alone predict it.
It's clear the negatives outweigh the positives by then - but it's not so easy either - unfortunately it clashes with an era where many, many more close competitors started to pop up and ability to sustain player loyalty also becomes much more important - if you just abandon it, you do essentially lose the one advantage they had over these new competitors (whom have staying power of their own as well). They can't let the problem escalate, but neither can they just abandon their advantages in light of rising competition, which gets to my main point to why it's a delicate balance.
The balance of what? The sustenance of player loyalty while lowering confidence in price sustenance. It's clear as day (the RL being the shining example), we've overshot the point where the Secondary Market just constantly speculates and spikes anything that isn't reprinted and/or potentially can be unbanned. "The reprint era" so far is essentially a message that they are trying to do the same as what Core Sets did for the first 10-15 years of the game (of course then they had the bright idea that apparently since Core Sets couldn't support it any longer they abolished it instead and that sent Standard tumbling down, but that's another issue).
That being said, I do agree that it isn't enough - the Core sets worked because they only had 10-15 years worth of card pool to operate with. The game has essentially reached a point you basically need 2 "Core Sets" a year to retain similar sustenance. They did intensely increase the output in the recent year (MM3, IMA and M25 were attempts at the very least), but well, there's a reason I said "2 Core Sets" and not "more Masters", because bluntly put, one Masters' output rates were insufficient when compared a Core Set's. They're still erring on the side of caution of the mistake back then, plus not wanting to tilt it to the point they start losing too much player loyalty overall, overall being a key word here, there's always some old-player who eventually gives up loyalty regardless so just raising some examples of them isn't exactly statistics. (In fact, myself as someone who essentially retired into EDH and Cube, I'm basically a non-factor in quite several angles already).
Long story cut short - the reprint output of the current reprint sets aren't enough to match up with what Core Sets did for the game in the first 15 years and WotC needs to find a solution to that, be it reprinting more quantity a year (remember core set volume > Masters volume) and/or resorting to rarity drops to achieve the same (seriously Mythics should not be a thing in reprints of any kind). The game can't have any quality if the servers aren't running and well, MTG's servers aren't exactly in the best of shape. (Although please don't use this analogy if you can explain it to them, given their track record with technology )
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Make sure to get lots of opinions. That's the most important thing.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)As a player, set a threshold on price per card and stick with it. If the card is within your budget and you need them, buy them. That is the best advice I can give.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
1. All ten checklands are in standard. The synergy between those and shocklands will not only drive demand through the roof in general, but I predict we will see several 3-4 color decks (which means a demand for 4-6 shocks per deck)
2. Because of that checkland/shockland synergy...I would not be surprised if WOTC didn't reprint them. I would not be taken aback at all if WOTC said "we know you all love shocklands, but we have a new idea" and just provided something flat out worse.
Either way, though, they're going to be more expensive. I agree with Colt though in that you shouldn't think of it as some investment where you can make a big profit. If you want shocks for play and want to save some money, that's a better way to handle this mtg finance stuff.
Collectors want the Reserve List to stay and Players want the reserve list gone.
Players got what they wanted in Modern--the whole idea that magic is for playing, not collecting.
Wizards basically started reprinting modern cards into oblivion.
You should not expect anything in Modern to ever go up again long term. If something goes up, it will be for a short-term.
Short term profits are pure speculation. You not only have to be correct about the direction of the price, you have to be correct within a given time frame.
Don't invest in modern. If you need the cards to play, buy them.
Yes they will be cheaper after the reprint. Yes its possible that standard will increase demand for the shocklands.
No that won't last for the duration of standard. If you can afford to wait, then wait.
I have sold almost all the cards I've "invested" in Modern, because of the recent reprinting spree of WoTC. Nothing is safe from reprint.
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When you have a format that still has cards that cost more than 80 bucks a piece, the format has not been reprinted into oblivion.
It doesn't matter how cheap magic gets, the reprint crowd will still advocate something like:
When you have a format that still has cards that cost more than 60 bucks a piece, the format has not been reprinted into oblivion.
When you have a format that still has cards that cost more than 40 bucks a piece, the format has not been reprinted into oblivion.
When you have a format that still has cards that cost more than 20 bucks a piece, the format has not been reprinted into oblivion.
When you have a format that still has decks that cost more than 400 bucks a piece, the format has not been reprinted into oblivion.
When you have a format that still has decks that cost more than 200 bucks a piece, the format has not been reprinted into oblivion.
When you have a format that still has decks that cost more than 100 bucks a piece, the format has not been reprinted into oblivion.
Actually, what happens is the reprint crowd grows smaller and smaller until all of the reasonable voices are on the side of "okay that's pretty reasonable, we're good." There is no literal end to it, but there's a point of general consensus. People who play on a budget exist in tiers. For instance, I refuse to pay more than $30 for a single card. I think the existence of $80 cards is mostly the result of wannabe stock traders trying to make a quick buck while being too wimpy to play the actual stock market. See, the real stock market has risk. Anything you buy can tank two months later. Odds might be low, but it can happen. MtG is this weird place where people want to play the market like its the NYSE while also wanting reprints low to preserve their investments, like these are CDs. The investor types want high profit margins and minimal risk, and that just isn't a thing in finance.
Karn Liberated, Mox Opal, Liliana of the Veil, Scalding Tarn, Noble Hierarch, Engineered Explosives.
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But in reality, it just hasn't been so.
Maybe it's because people love to find something to complain about. Maybe it's because an argument can be made that any amount is too much for a game and 'just' cardboard.
I've been playing magic since 1994. I remember a time when black lotus went for about 70 dollars, moxes for 30, and duals for 3. I distinctly remember thinking "pfft, 30 bucks for a mana?"
Back in 94, people would spend $150 building a new deck. I remember thinking that was just crazy. For that kind of money you could have purchased a new SNES and link to the past.
There's a reason why so few people took mtg to the cleaners and bought out every single dual land they could find. The perception we have about magic today didn't exist back then. It's the same reason why I refused to pick up lotuses or moxes when they were in the hundreds. Even as recently as 2008, underground sea was still going for $60 a piece. 10 years later, it goes for about $600.
The point I'm trying to make is that it works both ways. Price perception and price memory are as concrete as emotions. People, included myself, refused to pick up every dual land we could when magic was young because we thought it was too expensive. By 1995, when dual lands were "discontinued" and Wizards printed 4th edition, duals, also known as multilands at the time, rose from a buck or two to a strong 5 bucks each. If we thought duals were too expensive back in 94, we really thought duals went crazy when they went for 5 each in 95! $5 each? rip off.
So when you say there's an equilibrium when a sufficient number of reasonable people will come to a consensus, I have to disagree. That has not been my experience. Instead what seems to happen is when the price of a card drops, that new price becomes the new perception of what it's worth. The price of the card on tcgplayer/SCG is then judged as cheap or expensive against the "new" perception. The inevitable end state is that people always whine and complain.
To be fair, there might be a period of time when people were initially happy with the new price. When thoughtseize was reprinted, people initially felt happy they were getting a $70 card for $10 bucks. Now it's $20, and people think they're just picking up a $20 card for $20.
$70 dollars for a card? ugh. too expensive. That's like what? $280 for a playset? GG
Wizards still needs to reprint more if they want to maintain business.
If I feel that way, what just happened? Better yet, what didn't happen? I did NOT feel happy that I was able to pick up a formerly $120 card for $70. The fact that 'goyfs used to be 120 is a point lost on me. Instead I'm focusing on now, and now I feel 280 for a playset is too pricey. Let's face it. I have a point. 280 for cardboard IS pricey.
The point I'm trying to make is not whether goyf is too pricey or not. Frankly I think it is. I'm not made of money and there's a reason I don't own a playset of 'goyfs.
The point I'm trying to make is that Wizards capitulating to complaints over price is an endless wasteland. It really makes nobody happy in the long run. Whatever happiness i derived from obtaining a 120 card for 70 is yesterday's news.
But by going on a reprint tear, Wizards has damaged the perception of the secondary market over their non-reserve list cards by so much, there's no point in holding onto them.
That's the reason why I advocated to OP, never buy any magic cards until you need them. As a general rule, the longer you wait, the cheaper it gets.
Wizards really damaged the "collectible" part of the card game, giving the players what they wanted. And are players happy? Or will they simply find something else to gripe about. Giving into players gripes about price is so short sighted.
Let's talk about the way things used to be. I don't want to sit around and complain without offering a solution. And I think the best solution is what Wizards did for years--being very conservative in their reprints.
When is a card more pricey? When a goyf is $70 dollars a copy but will sell for $30 when you're done? Or when a goyf is 80 dollars, but will sell for $90 when you are done?
The funny thing is, $70 a goyf seems cheaper than $80 a goyf. But when the math works out in the end, I will be poorer with the $70 goyf than with the $80 goyf because I could sell at a slight profit.
People always forget this subtle point. The cost of magic isn't just the upfront costs. The total cost of magic = amount you buy the cards for - amount you can resell your cards for.
Wizards going on a reprint tear hasn't made magic cheaper, it's simply shifted the costs from resell to upfront. You win on the upfront costs, but lose out when you resell!
Spirits
But that supposes that your enjoyment of the card is solely based on how much money you can sell it for. This (in my opinion) is part of the problem. I would rather people be able to pick cards up cheaply, so everyone can play what they want.
Legacy and vintage are hardly played because people can't afford the cards. That doesn't seem good for the game.
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/index/modern#paper
Prices need to come down in my estimation. They need a more robust, more consistent Modern reprint schedule to drop these.
Buy the Shocks if you want/need them to play. If you are dead set to "invest" in them, get the original versions, they always hold the most value to collectors.
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
The problem isn't just reprints though. Reprints were needed to match the boom of the playerbase. There are more foil mythics printed today than some of these sets print runs. Any smart player from my era saw this coming in 2012-2014 when the playerbase boomed. 90% of the non-legacy cards that have become outragous in price are due to a redistribution of collection priorities from players like me. I could have sold 10 modern decks for 5 legacy decks and made a safer and wiser investment in playing magic. I sold out instead, because I don't play as much magic anymore, despite cards being more avalible. The only format i can play anymore is modern. The reprint policy by wizards has priced out everyone from the formats they want to play.
This coupled with the terrible two years of standard has made magic an unatrractive game for new players to play and invest in. You cannot as a new player anymore put money into the game in the form of a deck and have it carry you into a new deck in X months. I started playing extended with All-In-Red. I used the pieces from it to build 3 more decks and so on. You cannot do that anymore, nothing holds value and decks share so little numbers of cards in modern anymore.
My wife was on MTV with this video.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUutIZg2EpU
There's no question that modern is still expensive in terms of upfront cost.
But total cost in magic isn't as simple as Goyf cost 70, Shocklands cost 15.
The resell value is the second critical part of the equation which determines your costs.
If the resell value of goyf is 30, MTG is expensive. If the resell value of goyf is 80, mtg feels expensive, but actually isn't. In fact the costs are sustainable. Players who are loyal to the game get rewarded.
In other words, being conservative with reprints, giving mtg players faith that their cards are actually collectible, rewards players who are loyal to the game and keeps costs manageable to those loyal players. The problem with this system is that it makes it hard for newcomers to enter the game.
But here's why that's not as bad as it seems.
Let's say wizards reprints a ton, lowering upfront costs. Going back to my example:
-Goyf is 40, but you'll get back 10 for it.
Yes, this system will attract new players better than a system where Goyf is 70 and you'll get back 80 for it. The problem is those new players won't stick around. They won't stick around because there's no reward in being loyal to the game. They'll play for a bit and move on. At this point magic is just like every other game out there. A sink of time and money.
On the other hand if staples go up in value slowly, you attract fewer new people, but the people who stick with the game notice their collections going up in value. They want to hold onto their cards because they tend to up go over time. They can keep exploring the game because the high resell value lets them trade for other cards. Most of all, in this system you actually stop losing your loyal customers.
The game is vibrant when magic doesn't feel like I'm riding a sinking ship.
You happen to be looking through the narrow view of value only on this one. It may be the case, but maybe they WILL stick around because their decks are competitive, they have fun with them AND they win them prizes or money.
Cost of entry will become more and more exclusive, playership will dwindle, and eventually prices will come down as the format dies and people look to sell out at whatever they can get or will just sit on the cards taking them out of circulation.
A robust yearly Modern Masters reprint set is needed, one very much like the first MM set. Or certain staples continue the road to 150 a piece or more and Modern turns into Legacy part 2.
I guess we have to agree to disagree. No harm, no foul.
So back to the original post, again, buy them if you need them to play and get the original Ravnica ones if you want to "invest" or the original foil Ravnica shocks as they should retain most of their monetary value if they get reprinted.
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
As a former Legacy player. I can say that the prices of some cards in that format exploded because of the reserved list, so I left. Went to Modern and the prices are much better. Hmm, as for the issue of reprinting.. I think WoTC is still doing just fine on that... there is no over reprinting happening yet. The Masters sets and the revival of the core set has helped bring in a supply of cards, so more people can enjoy Modern. For example, Eidolon of the Great Revel used to be almost 20$, but a reprint cut the price to 4$... the ones who got Eidolons for 20 each maybe sad now, but I would assume many more people would be happy because they now got Eidolons for cheaper at 4$. Even some budget Burn lists can now have Eidolon.
Since you've used goyf as an example. Yeah, I lost out on that one.. the two I own got the first for 76 and the second for around 63. Goyf is now hovering around 50. Well, but I'm still glad to have those two because for a time.. goyf was a 150$ card, that reprints helped to bring down the price. Could never afford them if they stayed at 150 each, but WoTC made them more affordable with reprints. They add muscle to my BGx deck, so buying is not really a waste.
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All of this inflation on the cost of a card due to rampant speculation is not typically the concern of WoTC. WoTC wants to reprint cards when their data shows that the card is heavily used, has reached a point in it's life where the attrition will have an averse effect on a given format, or it simply is needed to make a set work or sell. If anything, they like the high prices on cards from speculation because it generates motion on the marketplace and keeps it alive.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Okay, that's my direct answer to the opening question, from my own standpoint as a player. As for the whole market-reprint-pricing debate, I'll just put my own statement on it:
Based on the current printing patterns of WotC, the whole reprinting "meta" is a very delicate balance and from what I see, WotC is trying to make it less delicate over time (whether they're successful or not is very up to the individual and it can also be argued considering the longevity of the game, taking MM13 as a marker, 5 years still isn't enough to even make a judgment).
They made the biggest mistake back then (the RL) that they can/will no longer repair (on the technicality they basically outright stated that themselves, not in any random possible concept usable, because that's like arguing we can achieve world peace by installing a hive mind) and they made a "smaller" mistake with literally every card not on the List prior to "the reprint era" (basically Masters and Supplementary products like Conspiracy and Battlebond).
Honestly, the game kept itself regulated pretty well in its earlier stages because of 2 factors - Core Sets and the fact MTG wasn't as big (both in terms of total card pool and participants). But the second factor is not a lasting one and eventually Core Sets alone would not be able to support regulating a larger card pool with a larger player base. Also, their biggest mistake was also a knee-jerk reaction to a backlash of a reprint back then and so, let's not pretend that did put a lot more cautiousness on cards not the List over the years between then and the "reprint era".
So, what's the problem? This era literally created "too much confidence" in price sustenance, which led to the whole "investment" and "players vs investors" situation that have more or less erupted in the recent few years. As people have pointed out, it's not completely negative (it does retain player loyalty a lot better in an industry that churns out endless competitors by the day) but clearly WotC let the situation balloon up before recognizing the issue (rather than preemptively predicting it) - of course, to be fair it's a company and there's no guarantee there were enough people consistently around to recognize the problem in time, let alone predict it.
It's clear the negatives outweigh the positives by then - but it's not so easy either - unfortunately it clashes with an era where many, many more close competitors started to pop up and ability to sustain player loyalty also becomes much more important - if you just abandon it, you do essentially lose the one advantage they had over these new competitors (whom have staying power of their own as well). They can't let the problem escalate, but neither can they just abandon their advantages in light of rising competition, which gets to my main point to why it's a delicate balance.
The balance of what? The sustenance of player loyalty while lowering confidence in price sustenance. It's clear as day (the RL being the shining example), we've overshot the point where the Secondary Market just constantly speculates and spikes anything that isn't reprinted and/or potentially can be unbanned. "The reprint era" so far is essentially a message that they are trying to do the same as what Core Sets did for the first 10-15 years of the game (of course then they had the bright idea that apparently since Core Sets couldn't support it any longer they abolished it instead and that sent Standard tumbling down, but that's another issue).
That being said, I do agree that it isn't enough - the Core sets worked because they only had 10-15 years worth of card pool to operate with. The game has essentially reached a point you basically need 2 "Core Sets" a year to retain similar sustenance. They did intensely increase the output in the recent year (MM3, IMA and M25 were attempts at the very least), but well, there's a reason I said "2 Core Sets" and not "more Masters", because bluntly put, one Masters' output rates were insufficient when compared a Core Set's. They're still erring on the side of caution of the mistake back then, plus not wanting to tilt it to the point they start losing too much player loyalty overall, overall being a key word here, there's always some old-player who eventually gives up loyalty regardless so just raising some examples of them isn't exactly statistics. (In fact, myself as someone who essentially retired into EDH and Cube, I'm basically a non-factor in quite several angles already).
Long story cut short - the reprint output of the current reprint sets aren't enough to match up with what Core Sets did for the game in the first 15 years and WotC needs to find a solution to that, be it reprinting more quantity a year (remember core set volume > Masters volume) and/or resorting to rarity drops to achieve the same (seriously Mythics should not be a thing in reprints of any kind). The game can't have any quality if the servers aren't running and well, MTG's servers aren't exactly in the best of shape. (Although please don't use this analogy if you can explain it to them, given their track record with technology )