MTG Salvation

I think Mox Diamond rox.
But maybe i'm too colored by my own cube, that have multicolor as theme.

Mox Diamond has been solid for us around here. Most cube decks run a considerable percentage of lands (40%-45%), which is like running around 25-27 lands in a traditional constructed deck (which is enough to hit your land drops for a number of turns consecutively). The boost Diamond gives is often enough to push aggro decks to the next level (turn 2 Wake Thrasher unanswered is pretty much GG we've discovered, lol).

Quote from Darkmindtone

Mox Diamond has been solid for us around here. Most cube decks run a considerable percentage of lands (40%-45%), which is like running around 25-27 lands in a traditional constructed deck (which is enough to hit your land drops for a number of turns consecutively). The boost Diamond gives is often enough to push aggro decks to the next level (turn 2 Wake Thrasher unanswered is pretty much GG we've discovered, lol).

You can't compare 40 and 60 card decks like that.
You have to use combinatorics and binomial distributions.
I don't have time to make the excact calculation here (i'm on work), but a 17 land 40 card deck is about the same as a 24 land 60 card deck.

Quote from bondafong

You can't compare 40 and 60 card decks like that.
You have to use combinatorics and binomial distributions.
I don't have time to make the excact calculation here (i'm on work), but a 17 land 40 card deck is about the same as a 24 land 60 card deck.

Sounds good. Don't listen to me about this then everyone, I haven't taken a math class in nearly a decade.

Quote from wtwlf123 »

That is in my top FIVE overall pics. Did it get cut because it was too good? The Diamond has been outstanding in our cube.

That's the most blunt exaggeration I've heard for some time (even more than Shelldock Isle being degenerate). Regular moxen are never first pick, so this could safely be later.
But it's a fair point about Chrome Mox. I guess I was just used to see it. I think I'll replace it with Mox Diamond next update.

Quote from wtwlf123 »

Even if you can't return the lands... you answered your own question. It accelerates you by 1. One mana of any color mind you. So, in an aggro deck, you play your 2 drop on T1, your 3 drop on T2... I fail to see how this card isn't busted. Just because you have to pitch a land? IMO it's even better than Chrome Mox because with the Chrome, you're losing gas, not land.

Chrome Mox is a bad example IMO. It easily tables and doesn't always make a deck. Losing a card is almost never worth the acceleration, that's why even Black Lotus isn't among the top five cards. And really, why would you pass a bomb/removal/good creature for this?

Quote from bondafong »

I don't have time to make the excact calculation here (i'm on work), but a 17 land 40 card deck is about the same as a 24 land 60 card deck.

Can you write it down please? I do believe you, but I always thought the higher percentage was intentional.

Honestly, its no exaggeration. I will pick Mox Diamond first card, first pack 95% of the time. It's better than Chrome Mox (especially in aggro) because you don't lose cards you are going to kill your opponent with... you just pitch an extra land. It is one of the best aggro cards in the cube. BTW... Black Lotus is also amongst the top picks. It's not the best card in the cube, but it's up there.

24 Lands in a 60 card deck is 40% land. 17 Lands in a 40 card deck is 42.5% land. You need more land in limited. I'll run between 17 and 19 mana sources depending on the curve of the deck I've constructed. So, you'll have the lands to pitch to Mox Diamond, but not always non-land cards to pitch to Chrome Mox.

What makes the Mox Diamond a sure pick it the lack of detication to play it. It's a safe early pick because it taps for everything... and is good in pretty mych anything. I can't imagine ever cutting it from the cube, because I always play it if I get it... and it's always good. Different strokes for different folks I guess.

Ok here's the simple version of how you calculate it:

---------------------------------------------------------

The goal is to get the first 4 land-drops.

For 40 card-decks:

We presume that:
- The deck consists of 40 cards: 17 lands and 23 spells.
- We don't take a muligan
- We are on the play
- We get a total of 10 cards during the first 4 turns

There are (40 choose 10) = 847 660 528 combinations of 10 cards from the deck.
The idea is now to calculate how many of these combinations that contains 4 or more lands.

0 lands: (23 choose 10) = 1 144 066
1 lands: (23 choose 9) * (17 choose 1) = 13 892 230
2 lands: (23 choose 8) * (17 choose 2) = 66 682 704
3 lands: (23 choose 7) * (17 choose 3) = 166 706 760
(166 706 760 + 66 682 704 + 13 892 230 + 1 144 066) = 248 425 760

That means (248 425 760 / 847 660 528) = 0.293072229 of the times the first 10 cards consists of 3 or less lands.
That also means that 1 - 0.293072229 = 0.706927771 of the times the hand consists of 4 or more lands.



For 60 card-decks:

We presume that:
- The deck consists of 60 cards: 24 lands and 36 spells.
- We don't take a muligan
- We are on the play
- We get a total of 10 cards during the first 4 turns

There are (60 choose 10) = 75 394 027 566 combinations of 10 cards from the deck.
The idea is now to calculate how many of these combinations that contains 4 or more lands.

0 lands: (36 choose 10) = 254 186 856
1 lands: (36 choose 9) * (24 choose 1) = 2 259 438 720
2 lands: (36 choose 8) * (24 choose 2) = 8 351 853 840
3 lands: (36 choose 7) * (24 choose 3) = 16 895 704 320
(254 186 856 + 2 259 438 720 + 8 351 853 840 + 16 895 704 320) = 27 761 183 736

That means (27 761 183 736 / 75 394 027 566) = 0,368214627 of the times the first 10 cards consists of 3 or less lands.
That also means that 1 - 0,368214627 = 0,631785373 of the times the hand consists of 4 or more lands.

------------------------------------------------------------------

This is ofcourse only an example that shows how to calculate it. You can see that here the numbers don't really match, but that's because it's an isolated example.
If you take all the other various situations into account, like flooding, mulligans, you play more than one color and need both, etc. etc. you will find that 17/40 and 24/60 have the same consequenses for the deck.

Quote from metamind

That's the most blunt exaggeration I've heard for some time (even more than Shelldock Isle being degenerate).

I'm not sure I saw anyone claim Isle is degenerate...it is, however, a GREAT card in 40-card formats, especially when you get to cast Cube cards for free off of it.

Chrome Mox is a bad example IMO. It easily tables and doesn't always make a deck. Losing a card is almost never worth the acceleration, that's why even Black Lotus isn't among the top five cards. And really, why would you pass a bomb/removal/good creature for this?

Chrome mox easily tables in powered cubes, maybe, but not in ours. If it does, it is snatched up quickly because acceleration is at a premium.

I've been a little surprised by your card evaluations, and I wonder honestly what causes those opinions. Is it your playgroup, your cube experience, your M:tG experience...I'm trying to figure it out. It seems there are a lot of cards you discount, even though I think your cube is on the large side (correct me if I'm wrong, I'm not looking at your list while i type this)



-AA

Shelldock Isle is excellent. I'm glad I added it. I'm planning on adding a Horizon Canopy as a small boost for green/white too, speaking of lands.

Quote from Ammo187

Shelldock Isle is excellent. I'm glad I added it. I'm planning on adding a Horizon Canopy as a small boost for green/white too, speaking of lands.

Both excellent choices. Neither are 'degenerate' and both are playable.

Chrome Mox on the other hand is kinda bad if you are not playing some extremely aggro deck. Losing a spell sucks a lot more than losing a land and Chrome Mox doesn't fix colors. While he gets drafted, i have often seen him in the sideboard.

That's kinda what I was saying. The card isn't very strong, so it's a bad example.

I'm not sure I saw anyone claim Isle is degenerate...it is, however, a GREAT card in 40-card formats, especially when you get to cast Cube cards for free off of it.

I won't start this again.

I've been a little surprised by your card evaluations, and I wonder honestly what causes those opinions. Is it your playgroup, your cube experience, your M:tG experience...I'm trying to figure it out. It seems there are a lot of cards you discount, even though I think your cube is on the large side (correct me if I'm wrong, I'm not looking at your list while i type this)

My cube is 720 cards. About the card evaluations, I'd like to think at least some of them are right... They are affected by all of what you say of course, but will you be able to figure it out? My last few discounted cards were: Shelldock Isle, Willbender, Chrome Mox, Memory Jar, Jace (kinda recounted, though), Mox Diamond (again, this may not count)
I don't think the fact that my cube is powered changes the whole issue, because my cube is large and still the moxen aren't first picks. Aether Vial, however is a first pick. Sol Ring is obviously first pick, Black Lotus is 1-2, Grim Monolith and Mana Vault can sometimes table, Ancient Tomb tables easily...

Shelldock Isle is excellent. I'm glad I added it. I'm planning on adding a Horizon Canopy as a small boost for green/white too, speaking of lands.

Horizon Canopy is great in my cube. I wait for the day the whole cycle will come out, I will add it for sure.

Quote from metamind

My last few discounted cards were: Shelldock Isle, Willbender, Chrome Mox, Memory Jar, Jace (kinda recounted, though), Mox Diamond (again, this may not count)

Shelldock Isle is good in a large cube (which you have) but it may not make the cut for cubes that are <550 cards.

Willbender has never been worse than a 3 for 1! I love this card.

Chrome Mox... not as good as Mox Diamond but still great.

Memory Jar is a colorless draw 7. Period.

Jace Beleren is one of the best planeswalkers. I heard drawing cards is good? IDK.

And Mox Diamond... P1P1 95%+ of the time. One of the 15 or 20 best cards in the cube.

I'm now curious... what did you replace these cards for?

In a nutshell:

Shelldock Isle is good in a large cube (which you have) but it may not make the cut for cubes that are <550 cards.

The land CIPT, and has a hard condition to just drawing a card, and in that condition you are winning anyway.

Willbender has never been worse than a 3 for 1! I love this card.

Has been barely better than a 2/2 for 3. Hard to find the time to put it, not so easy to activate it, doesn't deal with enough.

Chrome Mox... not as good as Mox Diamond but still great.

Discarding a card is a harsh drawback, and most decks cannot afford it for a mere acceleration of 1 (and it doesn't even fix all the time)

Memory Jar is a colorless draw 7. Period.

As much as it helps you in the discard, it helps your opponent, it costs a lot, is slow and never seems useful.

Jace Beleren is one of the best planeswalkers. I heard drawing cards is good? IDK.

Playing it turn three is almost always just to cycle. He's clearly the worst planeswalker in my cube, and in limited.

And Mox Diamond... P1P1 95%+ of the time. One of the 15 or 20 best cards in the cube.

You realise the number is decreasing constantly? Once you said it was top 5, then 8-9, now 15-20...

Why do I bother arguing with the guy who says Suntail Hawk is better than Isamaru?

Quote from metamind

Why do I bother arguing with the guy who says Suntail Hawk is better than Isamaru?

For the same reason I'm arguing with someone that thinks Mox Diamond is bad.

For me in my cube (which is smaller) I would say it's closer to the top 5, whereas in your bigger cube, it's more like 15-20. It doesn't matter though, because it's still P1P1 so ranking it is really meaningless.

The Suntail Hawk thing was explained, was it not? It didn't say it was better than Isamaru, I said it was more likely to deal a 5th point of damage (which is true). Now, in a deck that has tons of removal, you're obv. better off with the 2 Power creature for 1 mana (like in WR or WB aggro, for example). In a typical mono-white aggro deck, the removal is more limited, so the evasion provided by the Hawk is useful. That's also in my cube which has less playable 1-drop white creatures (people can check out the thread for a better explanation if they want one). It's not like I told you to pull out your Isamaru for a Suntail Hawk, that's ridiculous.

For the same reason I'm arguing with someone that thinks Mox Diamond is bad.

You shouldn't. It won't develop anywhere.

If we're already talking about Jace, how do you usually play him? Do you just milk him for as many cards as possible via the second ability.

Quote from metamind

You shouldn't. It won't develop anywhere.

If we're already talking about Jace, how do you usually play him? Do you just milk him for as many cards as possible via the second ability.

It depends on the matchup I think... If my opponent has creatures on the board, I'll usually +2 him first, and then -1 him after that. If the board is empty, I feel it's better to just -1 him until he's empty (or -1 him til he's at 1 then +2 him on the following turn). It depends on the aggro quality of your opponent's deck and the control quality of your own. Plus, if you've seen the quality of the cards in your opponent's deck, game 3 you may be able to +2 him constantly (if their deck is more midrange stuff with no real bomb cards) or you may not want to +2 him at all (if the quality of your opponent's deck is > than yours)...

On another note, I agree that we don't need to argue anymore about card selections, because in the end, it's up to your personal choice anyways (it's your cube, not mine ;)).

~Peace

I was reminded by Manaplasm in another thread so I wrote it down in my Top Contenders section. Prolly instead of Elvish Visionary, but I'm willing to let it see some play first.

I really like the Elvish Visionary myself. Manaplasm seems like it has potential, but it requires you to play bad Magic in order for the card to work (playing spells pre-combat that should wait until your 2nd main phase). Seems like he makes you a lot more vulnerable to instant speed removal and cards like Wing Shards.

The same could be said of Chimeric Idol and it's a great card.

Yep. But the Idol's better.

Testing reminded me that most pro. black creatures have one or two toughness, making Bane of the Living much more appealing. I'm still concerned about the lack of aggro in black, but Bane fixes this problem so well it will stay.

Hell ya the Bane should stay! That guy's pro!

The problem is that all black's mass removals are good. I play:

• Damnation
  
• Innocent Blood
  
• Barter in Blood
  
• Bane of the Living
  
• Ashes to Ashes

You may say that's not too much, but black is also the color of targeted removal and CIP destroy effects.
I see many more playable black mass removals, like Reckless Spite and Decree of Pain.

Quote from metamind

The problem is that all black's mass removals are good. I play:

• Damnation
  
• Innocent Blood
  
• Barter in Blood
  
• Bane of the Living
  
• Ashes to Ashes

You may say that's not too much, but black is also the color of targeted removal and CIP destroy effects.
I see many more playable black mass removals, like Reckless Spite and Decree of Pain.

And mulilate.

I really like Decree of Pain. I like it better than Mutilate because for the one extra mana, you can cast it at instant speed, draw a card, and have it be uncounterable (not to mention the fact that you can also wrath + draw cards with it too, ftw).

In mono-black control the Mutilate can be better sometimes, but in B/X control, the Decree is king.