you're going to spend a card and your whole turn and miss
You don't HAVE to activate it every turn. Use the card when it's correct to do so and you won't run into this problem. If I was discarding a creature I could cast, ya, that's a big potential miss. If I'm discarding an excess land or an uncastable card, I'm actually spending my mana and a card for a shot to do something proactive in a turn cycle that was otherwise guaranteed to do nothing. Not to mention all the times that I'm discarding a card I want to be discarding ...in those cases it's pure upside.
I really want this card to be great, but it seems a bit overhyped here. Just some quick hypergeometric math to approximate hit rates:
If you have 17 Creatures cmc <= 4, you'll miss 10% of the time you activate this for 4
If you have 17 Creatures cmc <= 3, you'll miss 18% of the time you activate this for 3
Having that many hits in your deck is not common to begin with, and the rate you miss is almost too high for my taste. Spending two mana for an enchantment and then spending a card AND more mana for not a sure thing? Even if you hit, whose to say you don't just hit a mana dork. If you spend that much time/resources on a play that isn't impactful, you're going to lose. I see the appeal that it's a powerful mana sink and at worst it's a discard outlet, but my gut says this asks way too much of you.
I'll likely still test it, as I support the toolbox pod strategies, and often am looking for mana sinks because those decks can play the Vizier of Remedies + Devoted Druid combo, but I'm skeptical.
It's definitely a card for mana elf based creature strategies that have the tools to take the game longish. In general, activating it for 4, should probably only be done if you are flooding and need something to do with your mana.
I agree with you that it's easy to underestimate the initial card disadvantage to play the card AND an extra card to activate, as well as the cost of whiffing.
On the other hand, I think it's easy to underestimate the power of threatening instant speed creatures, having a late game mana sink that has a cheap initial investment, and having a game ending engine that can easily be played around soft counter magic.
In the Vizier of remedies + druid deck it seems incredible. While casting it for x=5 has a clear whiff rate, that is offset by your ability to dig deep through your deck to find a high valued target, like a creature combo piece (Kiki jiki, vizier of remedies).
I expect there to be some wildly differing opinions on the card with initial testing. It's a card who's value is heavily sensitive to the composition of the deck. Very much a build around that naturally fits into some builds of existing archetypes.
you're going to spend a card and your whole turn and miss
You don't HAVE to activate it every turn. Use the card when it's correct to do so and you won't run into this problem. If I was discarding a creature I could cast, ya, that's a big potential miss. If I'm discarding an excess land or an uncastable card, I'm actually spending my mana and a card for a shot to do something proactive in a turn cycle that was otherwise guaranteed to do nothing. Not to mention all the times that I'm discarding a card I want to be discarding ...in those cases it's pure upside.
What you quoted was part of a response to a person who was discussing activating this on turn 3, the context there is important.
FWIW I agree with everything you say in this post. My specific concern is that the scenario you're mentioning doesn't make me want to include a card in my deck. I would rather include another piece of action/top end unless I'm planning on abusing the discard outlet. It will be fantastic as an engine when the game stalls out, but it seems to me like that's very BCS, and the average case won't be so good.
I jammed this into a mono G cube deck (with no discard synergies) and played ~8-10 games with it against a control deck. That's obviously going to be it's best matchup, but whew this card was strong. It was only ever activated for 5-6+, but it would just churn through your deck and dump your 5-8 drops into play once it got going (uncounterable at instant speed to boot). Imo if you're activating this for 3-4, you're just doing it wrong (or you're very desperate/flooded).
In games where I had it, it perfectly solved the "green running out of gas" problem. It also has a really neat play pattern once you start activating it for 6-7; good players can do a lot with knowing the bottom 7 or 14 cards of their library. It becomes easy to predict what you're going to hit and far more consistent.
And I don't even think that's the best deck for it - that's probably a BG reanimator deck that can use the discard to its advantage too. This is obviously a limited sample size in one deck, but I was impressed and will be testing it extensively.
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you're going to spend a card and your whole turn and miss
You don't HAVE to activate it every turn. Use the card when it's correct to do so and you won't run into this problem. If I was discarding a creature I could cast, ya, that's a big potential miss. If I'm discarding an excess land or an uncastable card, I'm actually spending my mana and a card for a shot to do something proactive in a turn cycle that was otherwise guaranteed to do nothing. Not to mention all the times that I'm discarding a card I want to be discarding ...in those cases it's pure upside.
What you quoted was part of a response to a person who was discussing activating this on turn 3, the context there is important.
FWIW I agree with everything you say in this post. My specific concern is that the scenario you're mentioning doesn't make me want to include a card in my deck. I would rather include another piece of action/top end unless I'm planning on abusing the discard outlet. It will be fantastic as an engine when the game stalls out, but it seems to me like that's very BCS, and the average case won't be so good.
Sorry, I misunderstood the original quoted context.
I agree that the ACS gets lowered if you're using it in decks that don't want the discard outlet. Which is why I plan to play it in decks that want it as a discard outlet.
I don't know why we are okay on 75% here? Spending two mana, and then three mana AND a card is a big cost to pay when there's a 25% chance you brick. Sure, it's not the only application of the card, but until you have a bunch of mana mana, you're going to spend a card and your whole turn and miss a non insignificant portion of the time.
Putting some more thought into the percentages and the opportunity costs, another good flashy three drop might just be better. I agree with your points, I still love the cards for the others decks and will test it in the CoCo deck and see if it is acceptable. I am looking for it to be what experimental frenzy is for the red standard burn deck, even if limited to one cast per turn.
I just can’t see past the card disadvantage or mana inefficiency. You’re always going to be down at least 1 card and always going to be down at least 2 mana, probably more.
I might just be poor at playing the game and/or drafting, but I've found myself out of steam relatively often in the ramp archetype, especially if it turned out to be difficult to get enough serious threats. This card singlehandedly can solve that conundrum, and given how fast ramp can go it should be able to dig 6-7-8 cards deep by turn 5 or 6. That alone, I think, makes it reasonably worthwhile in green for me. The fact that it adds interesting dynamics to all decks that want discard just makes it more interesting.
My fear for this card is now just that it will be expensive.
It's a rare. They are nearly ALL sub-$5 a few weeks past relesae. No tall, but nearly every single one, yeah, even the 'good' ones. (good news)
It's Legendary, which decreases the relative # of copies people will seek out for Standard decks. (definitely good news)
This set appears pretty juiced (or at least folks seem to have that initial impression) so looks like it'll sell A LOT. (best possible news)
Nothing's ever for sure, but all things being equal, but I think you can pretty safely relax here.
Card looks good. I'll try it out for sure. I don't really like Pod (but never really played with it either) but I'm certainly more willing to try this out costing 2 mana than I would take a chance on Pod at 4.
Had my first testing session yesterday, 2 of which features decks that drafted and main decked this card. I'm a little bit lower on the card than I was initially, but am still optimistic.
The issue really comes down to that it's more narrow than it looks. Big ramp decks tend to have multiple 7+ mana creatures, multiple elfs as well as a few planeswalkers. Meaning, unless you are spining the wheel for 7+, it's generally a poor use of mana/resources. You might stumble into a ramp variant where this isn't true, but on average, the card will have an unpalatable whiff rate outside of high activation costs
If the deck is has a ton of cmc 3-5 creatures, it's probably reasonably agressive, so the initial 2 mana + a card investment is going to sting a bit more.
It's not a "fast" effect, but it's a good grindy option. Generally you almost will never want to play it if you could play another creature. Is hurting your tempo in a high powered format worth it for an effect like this ? probably depends on the matchup.
However, I still expect there to be the occasional creature shell where it's excellent in.. and I expect it to really shine in GB reanimator or anything that can use the discard clause as a means for value... But, I also expect it to be played in green main decks much more often than it should.
Just not seeing this card. I like the idea but it seems very narrow and slow. My graveyard decks are very creature heavy with aggro beats like gravecrawler or they are fairly creature light cheating in fatties. Neither decks wants this card. As a late game value in midrange sure, but lots of things do that. It also doesn't work in a toolbox card like pod or shaman. It beats pod in a general value deck but I still think pod is the better card.
To me this can be put in the pile of cards like call of the wild that you can write a good script for but will be the wrong thing at the wrong time in most match ups. As far as giving green some more late game value vs. blue, just play any planeswalker.
It beats pod in a general value deck but I still think pod is the better card.
So much this! I'm seeing a lot of people in this thread that dislike pod, but like this card. Both are a form of card disadvantage, that enable powerful plays and card selection. However, this requires SO MUCH MORE mana with no guarantees. The reason that Pod is so powerful is because you know what you're getting and can plan accordingly. I am a huge advocate for Pod, but also understand why many don't think it's good enough/too narrow. However, I simply believe that this is because drafting an optimal pod deck is HARD. Very very very hard. Understanding when to prioritize curve vs. value vs. mana vs. combo is incredibly difficult, and you need to tailor your cube slightly for good options at 3 and 4 cc as they're the most important slots (e.g. why Huntmaster has no chance of being cut from my Gruul section). So far both Pod and Vannifar have regularly been in undefeated decks, and I just don't see this card facilitating the same consistency in power.
I will test it, but I don't believe it will stick around.
It beats pod in a general value deck but I still think pod is the better card.
So much this! I'm seeing a lot of people in this thread that dislike pod, but like this card. Both are a form of card disadvantage, that enable powerful plays and card selection. However, this requires SO MUCH MORE mana with no guarantees. The reason that Pod is so powerful is because you know what you're getting and can plan accordingly. I am a huge advocate for Pod, but also understand why many don't think it's good enough/too narrow. However, I simply believe that this is because drafting an optimal pod deck is HARD. Very very very hard. Understanding when to prioritize curve vs. value vs. mana vs. combo is incredibly difficult, and you need to tailor your cube slightly for good options at 3 and 4 cc as they're the most important slots (e.g. why Huntmaster has no chance of being cut from my Gruul section). So far both Pod and Vannifar have regularly been in undefeated decks, and I just don't see this card facilitating the same consistency in power.
I will test it, but I don't believe it will stick around.
The reason Pod is so powerful is you can play a creature, take advantage of its ETB effect, and then trade it away for a better creature. Arkbow can't do that.
I’m skeptical as well. In small cubes, all the cheaty effects (Natural Order, Tooth and Nail, Birthing Pod, Green Sun’s Zenith) are tutors. If this works for large Xs only then I will rather play Chord of Calling (which I won’t at 450). At least with Chord I will get exactly what I need.
I like this card because it can turn resources I can't use or don't need into ones I want. Pod only exchanges a resource with value into another resource with value. And it does so at sorcery speed. Plus, Pod doesn't put Griselbrand into my graveyard, or allow me to pitch Bloodghast and turn it into a Flesh Carver, or discard excess lands and flip a Ramunap Excavator. Those are the decks that I'll actually be playing Arkbow in.
I don't like the comparison to Pod. Partially because I think Pod is a bad cube card, but more because I think this is a completely different card. This is closer to a Survival or Evolutionary Leap effect than a Pod effect. So the Pod comparison simply isn't a good one.
I don't like the comparison to Pod. Partially because I think Pod is a bad cube card, but more because I think this is a completely different card. This is closer to a Survival or Evolutionary Leap effect than a Pod effect. So the Pod comparison simply isn't a good one.
I think this is the card we were looking for when we were initially excited about Evolutionary Leap during that spoiler season.
Maybe, ya. For the record, I don't think this card is broken or anything. I think that it might be good in the right decks. It reminds me a bit of cards like Wild Mongrel and Noose Constrictor. I don't play them because they're broken. I play them because they serve an important role in the right deck, and they can serve as solid filler in other decks. This card will be similar. It will play great in graveyard-centric creature decks, but it'll also be a fringe playable 23rd card for your random green midrange deck too. This is the Noose Constrictor of green utility cards.
Seems nuts; it's a discard outlet, a mana sink and card quality generator all rolled into one. If I can get my hands on one I will include it for sure.
I had to read it twice before I even notice it is any card and it isn't tied to that cards CMC.
Pity about the flavour, I care little for Vivian and her Arcbow.
Look I get it, sometimes you even thoughtseize yourself to get griselbrand in the graveyard but I feel this card is essentially a mulligan against aggro and combo which combined take up an average of 4 out of 8 decks in my draft. I primarily keep my outlets in black with just a couple of the best in each other other color. Obviously survival and shaman are in. I have had much better luck leaning into the toolbox with GSZ and Eldritch Evolution, but that could jsut be me.
For those looking for other green discard, try Greenseeker.
You don't HAVE to activate it every turn. Use the card when it's correct to do so and you won't run into this problem. If I was discarding a creature I could cast, ya, that's a big potential miss. If I'm discarding an excess land or an uncastable card, I'm actually spending my mana and a card for a shot to do something proactive in a turn cycle that was otherwise guaranteed to do nothing. Not to mention all the times that I'm discarding a card I want to be discarding ...in those cases it's pure upside.
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It's definitely a card for mana elf based creature strategies that have the tools to take the game longish. In general, activating it for 4, should probably only be done if you are flooding and need something to do with your mana.
I agree with you that it's easy to underestimate the initial card disadvantage to play the card AND an extra card to activate, as well as the cost of whiffing.
On the other hand, I think it's easy to underestimate the power of threatening instant speed creatures, having a late game mana sink that has a cheap initial investment, and having a game ending engine that can easily be played around soft counter magic.
In the Vizier of remedies + druid deck it seems incredible. While casting it for x=5 has a clear whiff rate, that is offset by your ability to dig deep through your deck to find a high valued target, like a creature combo piece (Kiki jiki, vizier of remedies).
I expect there to be some wildly differing opinions on the card with initial testing. It's a card who's value is heavily sensitive to the composition of the deck. Very much a build around that naturally fits into some builds of existing archetypes.
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What you quoted was part of a response to a person who was discussing activating this on turn 3, the context there is important.
FWIW I agree with everything you say in this post. My specific concern is that the scenario you're mentioning doesn't make me want to include a card in my deck. I would rather include another piece of action/top end unless I'm planning on abusing the discard outlet. It will be fantastic as an engine when the game stalls out, but it seems to me like that's very BCS, and the average case won't be so good.
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In games where I had it, it perfectly solved the "green running out of gas" problem. It also has a really neat play pattern once you start activating it for 6-7; good players can do a lot with knowing the bottom 7 or 14 cards of their library. It becomes easy to predict what you're going to hit and far more consistent.
And I don't even think that's the best deck for it - that's probably a BG reanimator deck that can use the discard to its advantage too. This is obviously a limited sample size in one deck, but I was impressed and will be testing it extensively.
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Sorry, I misunderstood the original quoted context.
I agree that the ACS gets lowered if you're using it in decks that don't want the discard outlet. Which is why I plan to play it in decks that want it as a discard outlet.
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Putting some more thought into the percentages and the opportunity costs, another good flashy three drop might just be better. I agree with your points, I still love the cards for the others decks and will test it in the CoCo deck and see if it is acceptable. I am looking for it to be what experimental frenzy is for the red standard burn deck, even if limited to one cast per turn.
I just can’t see past the card disadvantage or mana inefficiency. You’re always going to be down at least 1 card and always going to be down at least 2 mana, probably more.
I’m skeptical that something this fair and this inefficient can be a real card in a format with Splinter Twin, Sneak Attack, Hellrider or Reanimate
It's a rare. They are nearly ALL sub-$5 a few weeks past relesae. No tall, but nearly every single one, yeah, even the 'good' ones. (good news)
It's Legendary, which decreases the relative # of copies people will seek out for Standard decks. (definitely good news)
This set appears pretty juiced (or at least folks seem to have that initial impression) so looks like it'll sell A LOT. (best possible news)
Nothing's ever for sure, but all things being equal, but I think you can pretty safely relax here.
Card looks good. I'll try it out for sure. I don't really like Pod (but never really played with it either) but I'm certainly more willing to try this out costing 2 mana than I would take a chance on Pod at 4.
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It's way worse if you're just comparing them sitting in play, but it's a lot less fragile. I still think Shaman is way better though.
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The issue really comes down to that it's more narrow than it looks. Big ramp decks tend to have multiple 7+ mana creatures, multiple elfs as well as a few planeswalkers. Meaning, unless you are spining the wheel for 7+, it's generally a poor use of mana/resources. You might stumble into a ramp variant where this isn't true, but on average, the card will have an unpalatable whiff rate outside of high activation costs
If the deck is has a ton of cmc 3-5 creatures, it's probably reasonably agressive, so the initial 2 mana + a card investment is going to sting a bit more.
It's not a "fast" effect, but it's a good grindy option. Generally you almost will never want to play it if you could play another creature. Is hurting your tempo in a high powered format worth it for an effect like this ? probably depends on the matchup.
However, I still expect there to be the occasional creature shell where it's excellent in.. and I expect it to really shine in GB reanimator or anything that can use the discard clause as a means for value... But, I also expect it to be played in green main decks much more often than it should.
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To me this can be put in the pile of cards like call of the wild that you can write a good script for but will be the wrong thing at the wrong time in most match ups. As far as giving green some more late game value vs. blue, just play any planeswalker.
So much this! I'm seeing a lot of people in this thread that dislike pod, but like this card. Both are a form of card disadvantage, that enable powerful plays and card selection. However, this requires SO MUCH MORE mana with no guarantees. The reason that Pod is so powerful is because you know what you're getting and can plan accordingly. I am a huge advocate for Pod, but also understand why many don't think it's good enough/too narrow. However, I simply believe that this is because drafting an optimal pod deck is HARD. Very very very hard. Understanding when to prioritize curve vs. value vs. mana vs. combo is incredibly difficult, and you need to tailor your cube slightly for good options at 3 and 4 cc as they're the most important slots (e.g. why Huntmaster has no chance of being cut from my Gruul section). So far both Pod and Vannifar have regularly been in undefeated decks, and I just don't see this card facilitating the same consistency in power.
I will test it, but I don't believe it will stick around.
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The reason Pod is so powerful is you can play a creature, take advantage of its ETB effect, and then trade it away for a better creature. Arkbow can't do that.
I don't like the comparison to Pod. Partially because I think Pod is a bad cube card, but more because I think this is a completely different card. This is closer to a Survival or Evolutionary Leap effect than a Pod effect. So the Pod comparison simply isn't a good one.
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I think this is the card we were looking for when we were initially excited about Evolutionary Leap during that spoiler season.
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I had to read it twice before I even notice it is any card and it isn't tied to that cards CMC.
Pity about the flavour, I care little for Vivian and her Arcbow.
For those looking for other green discard, try Greenseeker.