MTG Salvation

I was reading wtwlf123's MCD thread on counterburn, and saw that Augur of Bolas almost went overlooked.

You need to have a way more than above average number of targets in your deck to have this reliably draw you a card.

The typical blue deck will still fall short of drawing a card at least 25% of the time or so.

But he's a good card for the counterburn archetype if you have a bunch of other creatures that can benefit from running a high % of spells (which is what that other thread was all about, lol).

#1 He wiffs say 25% of the time. But when he doesn't wiff he always gets you a real card and not a land. Is drawing a spell 75% of the time worth more, less or the same amount as a random draw 100% of the time?

#2 He is also a great early game blocker and the 1/3 body isn't too ugly in decks that usually want to fend off early aggro and go to the late game. So even when he wiffs, he is still worth about half a card IMO.

Is drawing a spell 75% of the time worth more, less or the same amount as a random draw 100% of the time?

I'd rather draw a card all of the time. Who says you're always going to want to dig for an instant/sorcery on T2? I'm usually looking for a 3-drop, a mana rock or a land with an effect like that.

And that's assuming the number is 75%, which is really high. You need a lot of instants and sorceries to do that. More than average. It's probably closer to 2/3 of the time.

An influx of 2 power one drops, hasty 2 drops and another aggro nonsense has pushed this guy in for me.

This card has me wondering about cantrips creatures of all stripes especially in blue. I really feel like these guys give some grease to blue decks and make them mroe reliable. Most of these are not playable but if Augur is an indication this class of creatures might be getting better soon.

Sea Gate Oracle Staple
Tower Geist Evasive, but unplayed due to 4 CMC and 2 toughness
Baleful Strix Becoming a Staple
Council of Advisors 1/1 is too small
Court Hussar Need white Mana
Jungle Barrier Simic Guild too crowded
Owl Familiar Cycling not draw, but is evasive
Raven Familiar Echo Cost
Muldrifter Staple


Creatures that only set up draw, not exactly cantrips and are usually not played.
Augury Owl
Sage Owl
Wu Spy

I am quite happy with Sea Gate Oracle, so I am interested in Augur of Bolas as well. I plan on testing it at some point, but I have not played Cube in ages and have plenty of other tests still going on, so that has to wait. Compared to the Oracle it does not always get a card which is huge, but it also costs 1U and not 2U which is huge as well.

With Sea Gate Oracle, I found that relatively often I already know what is on top of my library because of some Ponder or Brainstorm action. That also lets you time Augur in such a way as to get value from it (if only to get rid of two dead cards after a Brainstorm). Sadly Wizards finally realized how powerful cards like Ponder are, so it is unlikely that they print new ones, but there is still Portent that I occasionally consider adding.

I was playing a Standard Grand Prix Trial yesterday and my last round opponent whiffed on this guy twice, in a deck designed to take advantage of it. To which the guy sitting next to me asked if we'd ever heard the real text of the card. We said no and he replied "quietly look at the bottom three cards of your library." That's been my experience with the card every time I've played it, and I'd hate to have to do that in Cube.

Quote from ChampBlankman

I was playing a Standard Grand Prix Trial yesterday and my last round opponent whiffed on this guy twice, in a deck designed to take advantage of it. To which the guy sitting next to me asked if we'd ever heard the real text of the card. We said no and he replied "quietly look at the bottom three cards of your library." That's been my experience with the card every time I've played it, and I'd hate to have to do that in Cube.

Statistically speaking, in a deck with 8 targets Augur of Bolas draws about half a card. You can't really expect more than half a card on a 1/3 body for the low cost of 1U. The problem I see is to consistently build decks with 8 targets, because often you play artifacts, planeswalkers and enchantments as your non-creature spells, so how many instants and sorceries does that leave you with?

When I played Yugioh there was a running gag about a similar luck based card called Snipe Hunter. The joke was that the REAL effect of the card was "You may discard a card from your hand... Repeat this as many times as you want and/or ragequit the game when nothing gets destroyed and your hand is empty."

Bad luck happens, but I think you should build your deck assuming average luck and take risks where required. Auger of Bolas is definitely a marginal card for cube. It really wants to be a Seagate Oracle, but it's not. Do the math for your cube and the decks that would want this card, and decide whether you can include it based on the average scenario IMO.

Quote from eidolon232

Also even if you would never start with a 1/3 vanilla in your maindeck, these cards still happen to be exceptional against aggressive decks.

I think this point is most important. I am pushing aggro a lot and Blue is more and more in need of an early body.

I think blue has a lot more going for it at the 2-drop slot than Augur. I don't know how else to say it. If I'm building my blue deck, the only reason I want Augur in the mix is if I can't beat a fast deck, and then I should have better support cards and/or artifact mana to assist. It provides nothing as far as a clock, and pseudo-impulsing doesn't really sell it for me. When you hit, it's great, but when you don't it feels awful. Not a big fan, but I know a few in my group who like him.

I don't buy into the notion that late game, augur would be better than a cantrip, unless there is an absurd number of targets remaining. If you cantrip and brick; you at least have better chance of drawing action with your next draw. If you augur and brick, you know the bottom three of your library. Augur can't find creatures or walkers either, so it doesn't help you directly dig to those, if you need a threat. Lastly, augur reveals the card, which can be a significant drawback; many instants (and some sorceries as well) are significantly worse when your opponent can play around it.