As much as I hate it, Winter Orb seems like the pick here. We're a lock to wheel something W or R agro here. I like Sower/Tutor a lot, however, if you know something about who you're drafting with (i.e. how drafted blue is).
I have to admit, if I was drafting this myself, or doing a team draft, I'd probably go for Winter Orb, for many reasons that have already been stated. However, of all the first pick worthy cards, I think starting with Future Sight will lead to the most interesting discussions, so I'm picking that.
I don't know if it was the FTV picture that threw me off or that I looked at the cards too quickly but I completely missed that Mox Diamond was in the pack. I'm still sticking with Winter Orb but I can definitely see a strong argument for the Diamond.
I would agree with not locking into aggro if the basis was on a creature, like figure, student, jackal, guide, ect. Those are not strong enough to choose. And the way I see it is, its a colorless card, the other cards we're giving up are not going to be that much of a determinant, that picking this one card to start will end our chances at a solid deck.
In addition, not only does it start the solid foundation for a possible aggro deck, it keeps it out of the hands of our opponents. While yes I agree Future Sight, Mox Diamond, and SS are very difficult to pass p1p1, I'm not exactly that scared of those cards if we do end up being aggro. I'm not saying they aren't good, but I would hate to be on the receiving end of a winter orb.
That's my reason behind winter orb.
Again, thanks for starting this, I miss these things