I'd like to elicit some suggestions from those that have still been playing Esper these last few weeks, especially those of you that have been playing in tournaments of more than 4 rounds.
I recently played in PTQ Chengdu which was 60-70 people (4-2-1) and a GPT with 62 players in Beijing (4-2). I expect Saturday's GPT in Taipei to have a similar field to that seen in Beijing, that is to say, a lot of aggro, MonoU and Mono B.
I feel pretty good against these match-ups with my current configuration but I'd like to see what others think.
I'm actually not sold on playing Aetherling at the moment. I rarely bring him in from the sideboard anymore. Just control and sometimes versus MonoU, I never have needed to bring him in versus MonoB. I'd be open to finding a way to add another Gainsay into the sideboard without compromising the Negates. Negate is very good against G/R, Control, MonoB, and the burn deck. Notion Thief is pretty tech right now as very few are using it and stealing a revelation in the mirror is back-breaking, he also is hard to kill postboard, 3 to the face every turn.
Ok, so remember to keep in mind, I'm an Elixir deck that "gets there" through BBoV more often than not.
I'd make room for Mutavault and Devour Flesh. They help immensely against Aggro, and Devour Flesh is great against everything. I don't care how much life an opponent gains because BBoV and Elspeth catch up quick.
I'd make room for Mutavault and Devour Flesh. They help immensely against Aggro, and Devour Flesh is great against everything. I don't care how much life an opponent gains because BBoV and Elspeth catch up quick.
Devour Flesh is a card I've ran in the recent past and could find a place for it. The problem is that there are tons of playables available for this deck. If yu add cards you must cut cards. What cards would you cut for Devour Flesh and why would Devour Flesh be better in the current meta than the cards removed (please also explain why you would MB/SB it).
Mutavault has no chance of making my deck. The manabase is already greedy enough and the easiest way to lose with this deck is not drawing a mana source you need.
If you're worried about Aggro, Hero's Downfall is not as good as Devour Flesh. I would say that you could afford to lose the Dark Betrayal's on the SB if you want to keep the Hero's Downfall's in your 75.
I'd also either MB AEtherling or get rid of him, what are you going to side him in against?
As for the mana, in my experience, it's crucial to hit that 2nd white source to cast Verdict T4 against Aggro. Even taking a shock if necessary can save you if the Aggro overextended to try and kill you before Verdict.
I thought you were running Ashiok; why the change?
Not a fan of the Guildgate or 17 U sources. 16 gives you an 82% chance of UU on T3 and 86% T4. Along the same lines, you've only got 15 B sources. With 3 Hero's Downfall, it would be nice to have BB on T3, but you're down to 78%.
What prompted you to use the guildgate instead of a 4th Godless Shrine? Your current mana base is 17U/15B/15W, but you want UU and BB T3. I'd suggest you put the shrine back in, for 16U/16B/15W. That gives you an 82-83% chance of getting the mana you want on the turn you want it (UU and BB T3, WW T4).
(These numbers are all assuming one extra card exposed/drawn, be it from Scry or on the draw. You could conceivably be +/-3% or more in different scenarios, but I think think this is the average/most likely.)
I like your win con package. It would be nice to have a third BBoV in the main, but the control suite is so vital, there's not much to cut for it.
3 Thoughtseize and 3 Downfall feels like a lot when you only have five 2-cmc removal spells. Azorius Charm has been my least-favorite card in the deck for months. They're all good spells, but in a meta you expect to be aggro-heavy, what if you pulled a Thoughseize, Downfall, and Az Charm to the SB for the 2 Doom Blade and a third Dimir Charm? Now you've got a better chance at early removal with 7 at 2 mana and 6 at 3.
I'm very tempted to cut Dissolve entirely. I love the spell, but Esper Control is evolving into a sorcery-speed deck that answers everything on the board, and Thoughtseizes the rest. Experienced midrange/control players expect counterspells, and often either Thoughtseize us first or hold Gainsay as backup. Against aggro, you just wish it was removal (or Drown in Sorrow!), and against devotion, you might as well Thoughtseize their bomb and let them hope for a topdeck (which Dimir Charm can manipulate). I haven't tested it yet, but what about dropping Dissolve for Thoughtseize and/or Downfall? If you do that, drop an Island for a Plains.
As you pointed out in another post, I don't think you need Aetherling anymore. BBoV, Elspeth, and Elixir should probably be enough.
Notion Thief seems fun, except that the opponent is probably holding a counterspell to back up their Rev. Also, why do you think it's hard to remove post-board? Verdict, D Sphere, and Downfall should all still be present, no?
I'm also curious about the singleton Needle and Glare of Heresy. Are you expecting to eventually hit them in a drawn-out Elixir game?
What about Last Breath instead of Dark Betrayal?. It's just as strong against MBD -- it can kill Mutavault, and we still have Downfall, D Sphere, and Verdict for Desecration Demon -- and it's another option vs Mono-U and most aggro. The only MU I'd rather have Dark Betrayal is Jund aggro (8 B/x 3-power hasties), and that's pretty obscure.
I'd like to elicit some suggestions from those that have still been playing Esper these last few weeks, especially those of you that have been playing in tournaments of more than 4 rounds.
I recently played in PTQ Chengdu which was 60-70 people (4-2-1) and a GPT with 62 players in Beijing (4-2). I expect Saturday's GPT in Taipei to have a similar field to that seen in Beijing, that is to say, a lot of aggro, MonoU and Mono B.
I feel pretty good against these match-ups with my current configuration but I'd like to see what others think.
I'm actually not sold on playing Aetherling at the moment. I rarely bring him in from the sideboard anymore. Just control and sometimes versus MonoU, I never have needed to bring him in versus MonoB. I'd be open to finding a way to add another Gainsay into the sideboard without compromising the Negates. Negate is very good against G/R, Control, MonoB, and the burn deck. Notion Thief is pretty tech right now as very few are using it and stealing a revelation in the mirror is back-breaking, he also is hard to kill postboard, 3 to the face every turn.
Ok, so remember to keep in mind, I'm an Elixir deck that "gets there" through BBoV more often than not.
Discuss...
I have been actively playing Esper the last two weeks, but they have been 4 round tournaments so take my opinion as you will,
- I agree with the comments on the manabase. I think that 16U sources is sufficient and that guildgates for the most part are trash. Guildgate > Plains/Godless.
- Devour Flesh has been imo the best 2CMC removal spell, especially if you are expecting some number of aggro/mono black decks. The main weakness of devour flesh is Master of Waves, but even against MonoU it is strong to keep devotion count low. I would cut some number of Heros Downfall/Azorius Charm to add Devour Flesh.
- Nightveil Spectre has without a doubt been the best sideboard card for me in my matches. Its insane against MonoU, MonoB and Control (especially if you are playing a high threat count). I would definitely make room for it (cutting 2 x dark betrayal, Aetherling and Dimir Charm).
General Opinions:
I think that playing proactively with a higher threat count is the way to go atm. It makes us weaker against other control decks, but stronger against the rest of the field (especially thoughtseize). You yourself are not predicting control in the meta so I would consider taking this approach.
3x Heroes Downfall is too much. Planeswalker kill spells in general are not the best because your opponent almost always gets value before you kill it. I get that are necessary, but I feel like you are overloading on this effect.
I agree with Aetherling being poor at the moment, and I have cut it from my sideboard.
If you're worried about Aggro, Hero's Downfall is not as good as Devour Flesh. I would say that you could afford to lose the Dark Betrayal's on the SB if you want to keep the Hero's Downfall's in your 75.
I'd also either MB AEtherling or get rid of him, what are you going to side him in against? Aetherling gets sided in against U/W, R/U/W and Esper, occassionally MonoU. I see no good reason to mainboard him.
As for the mana, in my experience, it's crucial to hit that 2nd white source to cast Verdict T4 against Aggro. Even taking a shock if necessary can save you if the Aggro overextended to try and kill you before Verdict.
After several suggestions I will take out the guildgate and return the Godless Shrine.
I thought you were running Ashiok; why the change?The meta at a lot of these Asian events is full of aggro, Ashiok is just so-so versus aggro and often a really bad top deck.
Not a fan of the Guildgate or 17 U sources. 16 gives you an 82% chance of UU on T3 and 86% T4. Along the same lines, you've only got 15 B sources. With 3 Hero's Downfall, it would be nice to have BB on T3, but you're down to 78%.
What prompted you to use the guildgate instead of a 4th Godless Shrine? Your current mana base is 17U/15B/15W, but you want UU and BB T3. I'd suggest you put the shrine back in, for 16U/16B/15W. That gives you an 82-83% chance of getting the mana you want on the turn you want it (UU and BB T3, WW T4).
(These numbers are all assuming one extra card exposed/drawn, be it from Scry or on the draw. You could conceivably be +/-3% or more in different scenarios, but I think think this is the average/most likely.)
It was an experiment from my last big tourney but I'll go back to the Godless Shrine and report the results.
I like your win con package. It would be nice to have a third BBoV in the main, but the control suite is so vital, there's not much to cut for it.
Correct. Two seems right at the moment.
3 Thoughtseize and 3 Downfall feels like a lot when you only have five 2-cmc removal spells. Azorius Charm has been my least-favorite card in the deck for months. They're all good spells, but in a meta you expect to be aggro-heavy, what if you pulled a Thoughseize, Downfall, and Az Charm to the SB for the 2 Doom Blade and a third Dimir Charm? Now you've got a better chance at early removal with 7 at 2 mana and 6 at 3. In game 1 I think Azorius Charm is better than Dimir Charm. Thoughtseize is really good against control and midrange, I have to try and balance my handling of aggro.
I'm very tempted to cut Dissolve entirely. I love the spell, but Esper Control is evolving into a sorcery-speed deck that answers everything on the board, and Thoughtseizes the rest. Experienced midrange/control players expect counterspells, and often either Thoughtseize us first or hold Gainsay as backup. Against aggro, you just wish it was removal (or Drown in Sorrow!), and against devotion, you might as well Thoughtseize their bomb and let them hope for a topdeck (which Dimir Charm can manipulate). I haven't tested it yet, but what about dropping Dissolve for Thoughtseize and/or Downfall? If you do that, drop an Island for a Plains. Above you suggested cutting Thoughtseize and Downfall, now you are suggesting cutting Dissolve for Thoughtseize/downfall?
As you pointed out in another post, I don't think you need Aetherling anymore. BBoV, Elspeth, and Elixir should probably be enough. You very well may be right here. I feel a little naked taking Aetherling completely out of the 75 thought, but I'll consider it
Notion Thief seems fun, except that the opponent is probably holding a counterspell to back up their Rev. Also, why do you think it's hard to remove post-board? Verdict, D Sphere, and Downfall should all still be present, no?
Control doesn't keep all of their S.V. post board and most control decks aren't esper so have no access to Downfall. If they're holding counter to back their revs than why can't I be holding counters to back my Notion Thief?
I'm also curious about the singleton Needle and Glare of Heresy. Are you expecting to eventually hit them in a drawn-out Elixir game? This is a common thing people don't understand about sideboarding. It's not about having 2-3 of everything but instead adding cards that make a match-up better. Needle is a good card to bring in against a ton of decks, if you draw it, good, if you don't know big deal. Drawing two would generally be pretty bad.
What about Last Breath instead of Dark Betrayal?. It's just as strong against MBD -- it can kill Mutavault, and we still have Downfall, D Sphere, and Verdict for Desecration Demon -- and it's another option vs Mono-U and most aggro. The only MU I'd rather have Dark Betrayal is Jund aggro (8 B/x 3-power hasties), and that's pretty obscure.Nice observation! There Dark Betrayals could be Last Breath or the 4th Dimir Charm + L.B. I'll think on this.
I have been actively playing Esper the last two weeks, but they have been 4 round tournaments so take my opinion as you will,
- I agree with the comments on the manabase. I think that 16U sources is sufficient and that guildgates for the most part are trash. Guildgate > Plains/Godless.
I'm going back to the Godless Shrine as you all suggest.
- Devour Flesh has been imo the best 2CMC removal spell, especially if you are expecting some number of aggro/mono black decks. The main weakness of devour flesh is Master of Waves, but even against MonoU it is strong to keep devotion count low. I would cut some number of Heros Downfall/Azorius Charm to add Devour Flesh. I'll try to fit it in, I need to take a look at the deck again.
- Nightveil Spectre has without a doubt been the best sideboard card for me in my matches. Its insane against MonoU, MonoB and Control (especially if you are playing a high threat count). I would definitely make room for it (cutting 2 x dark betrayal, Aetherling and Dimir Charm). I'm not looking to go in that direction right now. Not saying it isn't effective but I'm not wanting my control deck to be that threat-based. Perhaps it's a matter of taste.
General Opinions:
I think that playing proactively with a higher threat count is the way to go atm. It makes us weaker against other control decks, but stronger against the rest of the field (especially thoughtseize). You yourself are not predicting control in the meta so I would consider taking this approach.
3x Heroes Downfall is too much. Planeswalker kill spells in general are not the best because your opponent almost always gets value before you kill it. I get that are necessary, but I feel like you are overloading on this effect. I've gone back and forth versus 2-3 Downfall, they are really useful against MonoB and R/G and the package most people are running makes it really hard to kill Master of Waves, so I'm not sure yet.
I agree with Aetherling being poor at the moment, and I have cut it from my sideboard.
I agree with what has been said about the manabase, would revert back to the full set of shocks instead of that guildgate. 9 tapped lands seems like too much, and I don't really think you actually need the extra U source.
3 hero's downfall seems like too much. I really like the spell overall, but honestly I don't think it even has a slot in esper lately. It's too slow as a removal spell for creatures unless you're going against R/G. And against PWs we already have thoughtseize, counters and spheres!My deck almost never loses to MonoB and I think one of the main reasons is that I run 3 downfalls. That allows me to dedicate D-Sphere solely to Underworld Connections and Pack Rat. D-Demon is hard to beat if they Thoughtseize your Downfall and see the coast is clear.
I'd really up the count on 2cmc removal spells if you're counting on a lot of aggro. Including a number of devour flesh would be a good idea, and if you want to take a split between azorius and dimir charms I'd go 3-2 in favour of dimir charm.
Just to clarify, yes, I did suggest removing a Thoughtseize and a Downfall for 2-cmc removal, and later I posed the idea of removing Dissolve to put Thoughtseize and Downfall back in.
I think increasing the low-cost removal is a high priority. My experience vs aggro has usually left me one removal spell short of stabilizing. Conventional Wisdom says TS and HD are the most likely candidates to cut.
That being said, a less-popular idea might be to drop the Dissolve instead. The end result is a deck with cheaper disruption and more board control, which allows us to take the initiative and play more aggressively.
I feel pretty good about this. I've added a bit more cheap removal, but kept the third Downfall in the board for MonoB, G/R, etc. My maindeck is a bit shaky against control so my sideboard really shores it up. 4 copies of Thoughtseize, Notion Thief, Needle, 4 more counter spells and Glare.
Dropped Aetherling entirely. I'm bringing in 11 cards against control in this iteration, I think that is more than enough. I'd love to have one more Gainsay, but such is life I guess.
So I just started playing Esper, however I did play in the PTQ Taipei on the 4th this month so unless there was a drastic overhaul the field should be similar to what I saw.
There were 85-90 total including me. The field consisted of more Mono B than Mono U by a far margin and the Mono B and U ranged from not streamlined to basically Owen Turtenwald's list. There was also at least 10 to 15 players playing Esper, U/W and some American Control. Of my 7 prelim matches 3 were against Esper Control, 2 Mono B, 1 G/R Monsters, 1 Mono U. G/R Monsters was also a thing and you did see some Rakdos and some W/R Barely Boros. Overall though there was less aggro then I thought'd there'd be. (Don't quite consider Mono B and U aggro more midrange and tempo respectively) The level of play was also pretty high and there were some pros; for example, Kuo Tzu-Ching was playing Esper Control there that day.
So I just started playing Esper, however I did play in the PTQ Taipei on the 4th this month so unless there was a drastic overhaul the field should be similar to what I saw.
There were 85-90 total including me. The field consisted of more Mono B than Mono U by a far margin and the Mono B and U ranged from not streamlined to basically Owen Turtenwald's list. There was also at least 10 to 15 players playing Esper, U/W and some American Control. Of my 7 prelim matches 3 were against Esper Control, 2 Mono B, 1 G/R Monsters, 1 Mono U. G/R Monsters was also a thing and you did see some Rakdos and some W/R Barely Boros. Overall though there was less aggro then I thought'd there'd be. (Don't quite consider Mono B and U aggro more midrange and tempo respectively) The level of play was also pretty high and there were some pros; for example, Kuo Tzu-Ching was playing Esper Control there that day.
Just a note on notion thief, I find that it absolutely curb stomps players who are not expecting it. But against control players who are decent, your chances of stealing a rev are very low.
For one thing, opponents can simply choose to rev when you rev. If you both leave up one slot for countermagic, flashing in notion thief means they can counter it. If you leave up two slots for countermagic... then it is not a very big rev and probably not worth it in the first place. In either case, your opponent can simply match the number of counterspell slots you leave open.
Notion thief is only good if they rev first and you can see how many countermagic slots they've left open. So as long as they don't rev first, you're okay.
Your best realistic case scenario is to steal a divination, which is still really good, but this is pretty much specific to the Azorius matchup and even then some of them only run 2, so the chances of notion thief actually lining up at a relevant time are pretty low.
Also you are esper, so they leave in verdicts and have no problems dealing with this card after it hits the board. If you're playing the esper mirror, the level of hand disruption brought in will significantly reduce the chances that anyone dives head first into a notion thief.
Just a note on notion thief, I find that it absolutely curb stomps players who are not expecting it. But against control players who are decent, your chances of stealing a rev are very low.
For one thing, opponents can simply choose to rev when you rev. If you both leave up one slot for countermagic, flashing in notion thief means they can counter it. If you leave up two slots for countermagic... then it is not a very big rev and probably not worth it in the first place. In either case, your opponent can simply match the number of counterspell slots you leave open.
Notion thief is only good if they rev first and you can see how many countermagic slots they've left open. So as long as they don't rev first, you're okay.
Your best realistic case scenario is to steal a divination, which is still really good, but this is pretty much specific to the Azorius matchup and even then some of them only run 2, so the chances of notion thief actually lining up at a relevant time are pretty low.
Also you are esper, so they leave in verdicts and have no problems dealing with this card after it hits the board. If you're playing the esper mirror, the level of hand disruption brought in will significantly reduce the chances that anyone dives head first into a notion thief.
I've played several Asian Pro Players in recent weeks and they've had to take action other than what you suggest. One player went for a big revelation and left three mana up, I cast Dissolve anyway, and low and behold he was bluffing. No counter magic to back it up. I've done the same thing. It's pretty normal to bluff counter Magic. Also if my opponent is doing a big rev, I probably have All my mana up, so I can Notion Thief and counter is counter presumably. U/W control does typically take out at least two S.V. sometimes all four and bring in two Celestial flares.
I wouldn't take out Verdict. Even though flare hits BBOV, flare is a lot worse against Elspeth tokens. Flare is also counterable if that becomes a battle worth fighting for some reason.
But what you say about thief is true - if they rev first, you have the advantage and can probably steal the rev. The only issue I have is if they don't rev first but instead do it in response to you tapping out. So NT becomes kind of like a liability in the "land-go" game.
I'm not sure if I'll take him out of my sideboard, but it is worth exploring how the card does or doesn't work.
Do you have any experience siding him in against mono black? They bring in 3 Erebos.
I actually am going to steal your 2x BBOV win con plan. I am currently running 1 Elixir 1 Aetherling no Elspeth (which may also change...). What I liked about Aetherling was that it ends the game quickly, and that once it has resolved your opponent cannot interact with it effectively. In the control mirror, it rewards you for outplaying your opponent. At least in game 1... In game 2, pithing needle does work and effectively stretches out the countermagic war across 2 turns. So you have to already be ahead for this to work.
I wouldn't take out Verdict. Even though flare hits BBOV, flare is a lot worse against Elspeth tokens. Flare is also counterable if that becomes a battle worth fighting for some reason.
But what you say about thief is true - if they rev first, you have the advantage and can probably steal the rev. The only issue I have is if they don't rev first but instead do it in response to you tapping out. So NT becomes kind of like a liability in the "land-go" game.
I'm not sure if I'll take him out of my sideboard, but it is worth exploring how the card does or doesn't work.
Do you have any experience siding him in against mono black? They bring in 3 Erebos.
Against MonoB NT is ok. Usually you steal a Underworld connection activation and end up trading him off for a creature in combat. I only have had him on the board in three games in that match-up but it was just so-so. I don't bring it in anymore unless the MonoB deck is a little rouge.
I actually am going to steal your 2x BBOV win con plan. I am currently running 1 Elixir 1 Aetherling no Elspeth (which may also change...). What I liked about Aetherling was that it ends the game quickly, and that once it has resolved your opponent cannot interact with it effectively. In the control mirror, it rewards you for outplaying your opponent. At least in game 1... In game 2, pithing needle does work and effectively stretches out the countermagic war across 2 turns. So you have to already be ahead for this to work.
Aetherling went from mainboard, to sideboard, to out of the 75 for me. I just didn't use it much. In the control mirror I an beat a resolved Aetherling if I'm chaining Revs and Elixir. I can often counter their Elixir and just mill them out.
One Elspeth seems essential right now and will win a lot more games then the Aetherling, you might give it a try.
I actually thought about it and decided that the BBOV plan has some weaknesses that Aetherling doesn't. I think BBOV is reasonable in most of your G1 except against control where he is miserable and monoblack where he is only okay depending on how many devour fleshes they draw.
I think G2 he is pretty good against aggro decks (they can still brave through him...), but G2 he is bad against almost all the rest of the field. Monoblack brings in LBZ's against you, which means you are giving them the potential for a 2-for-1 in a matchup defined almost entirely by card advantage. Control doesn't care about BBOV. G/R monsters are all bigger than him and they have mortars anyway. Trading 1:1 at 5 mana is not what I want to be doing.
Although in the control matchup, playing BBOV can force them to tap out for verdict or elspeth, which you can then use to your advantage to push a bigger threat or to draw more cards. Subtle.
Against MonoB NT is ok. Usually you steal a Underworld connection activation and end up trading him off for a creature in combat. I only have had him on the board in three games in that match-up but it was just so-so. I don't bring it in anymore unless the MonoB deck is a little rouge.
I had 2x elspeth 1x elixir in my azorius deck. Elspeth feels okay. I might cut a hero's downfall for her. I have 3 in my deck at the moment but that might be too much. I'm just tired of R/G monsters planeswalker spam.
I actually thought about it and decided that the BBOV plan has some weaknesses that Aetherling doesn't. I think BBOV is reasonable in most of your G1 except against control where he is miserable and monoblack where he is only okay depending on how many devour fleshes they draw.
I think G2 he is pretty good against aggro decks (they can still brave through him...), but G2 he is bad against almost all the rest of the field. Monoblack brings in LBZ's against you, which means you are giving them the potential for a 2-for-1 in a matchup defined almost entirely by card advantage. Control doesn't care about BBOV. G/R monsters are all bigger than him and they have mortars anyway. Trading 1:1 at 5 mana is not what I want to be doing.
Although in the control matchup, playing BBOV can force them to tap out for verdict or elspeth, which you can then use to your advantage to push a bigger threat or to draw more cards. Subtle.
Aetherling is miserable versus aggro, BBoV is very good. How long does Aetherling sit in your hand versus MonoB? Till 8-9 mana.... I haven't lost a game to MonoB in a high level tournament. BBoV just gets it done. Against G/R I just win with Elspeth, Aetherling is unnecessary/.
Against control neither is needed. Not sure where Aetherling is meant to shine.
Anti-climactic 0-2 drop at the GPT in Taipei. There were only 16 players.
In the first round I played Mono-Black "splash" Blood Barons.
G1: I stabilize the board just facing down a Erebos and rip a Revelation for 6 and get 4 lands, Thoughtseize (his hand is empty and he can draw at instant speed), and an Azorius Charm. I flood out and get Merchanted out.
G2:My opponent misses his 4th and 5th land drops and has to discard 2x Grey Merchant, I'm a bit flooded but land an Elspeth and as he hits his creatures I fight through and get him.
G3:I have trouble hitting my land drops but it ends up being ok, but I lose on a terrible misplay. The match has 1 minute left, we both have pretty much nothing going on but I have a Revelation in my hand and a lot of lands but he has Pithing Needle on my Elspeth. I draw Detention Sphere and mindlessly name Pithing Needle (I HAVE A P.N. ON HIS F-ING WHIP!!!) I give him back his whip and get my Elspeth. On his turn he drops his thrid Grey Merchant and drains me for 8, than whips back a (now) 10/10 Lifelink BBoV! and I die. If I name Grey Merchant and then next turn Revelation I either draw or tiny, tiny chance to win but I blew it.
R2 I'm playing a very strange Esper deck that james tons of creatures mainboard.
G1:I get out Elspeth and he gets out an Obzedat that I fail to answer and then resolves 2 Aetherlings.
G2: Mull a two lander with no black, get back a single island, send it back and get Temple of Silence, Temple of deceit, Thoughtseize, Thoughtseize, Duress. I take his Ashiok, he takes my other Thoughtseize, I take his Elspeth, and then never draw any spell that game.
Out of 5 games my mana was only good in M2 G1. I had 4 mulligans due to one lander or 2 lander without color diversity. Really, really was upset for blowing M1 but what can you do? There is another tournament at another store tomorrow, I might go, I don't know. A little dejected right now.
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I recently played in PTQ Chengdu which was 60-70 people (4-2-1) and a GPT with 62 players in Beijing (4-2). I expect Saturday's GPT in Taipei to have a similar field to that seen in Beijing, that is to say, a lot of aggro, MonoU and Mono B.
I feel pretty good against these match-ups with my current configuration but I'd like to see what others think.
4 Temple of Silence
4 Temple of Deceit
4 Hallowed Fountain
4 Watery Grave
3 Godless Shrine
4 Island
3 Plains
1 Azorius Guildgate
Planeswalkers (5)
4 Jace, Architect of Thought
1 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
2 Blood Baron of Vizkopa
Other Spells (26)
4 Sphinx's Revelation
4 Detention Sphere
4 Supreme Verdict
3 Thoughtseize
3 Hero's Downfall
3 Azorius Charm
2 Dissolve
2 Dimir Charm
1 Elixir of Immortality
2 Blood Baron of Vizkopa
1 Aetherling
1 Notion Thief
2 Gainsay
2 Negate
2 Doom Blade
2 Dark Betrayal
1 Pithing Needle
1 Glare of Heresy
1 Dimir Charm
I'm actually not sold on playing Aetherling at the moment. I rarely bring him in from the sideboard anymore. Just control and sometimes versus MonoU, I never have needed to bring him in versus MonoB. I'd be open to finding a way to add another Gainsay into the sideboard without compromising the Negates. Negate is very good against G/R, Control, MonoB, and the burn deck. Notion Thief is pretty tech right now as very few are using it and stealing a revelation in the mirror is back-breaking, he also is hard to kill postboard, 3 to the face every turn.
Ok, so remember to keep in mind, I'm an Elixir deck that "gets there" through BBoV more often than not.
Discuss...
http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/modern/developing-competitive-modern/598381-kiki-chord-kiki-company
Bring to Niv
https://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/modern/deck-creation-modern/814060-bring-to-niv-the-golden-deck
Legacy - Lands
http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/legacy-type-1-5/established-legacy/control/535484-primer-lands
Devour Flesh is a card I've ran in the recent past and could find a place for it. The problem is that there are tons of playables available for this deck. If yu add cards you must cut cards. What cards would you cut for Devour Flesh and why would Devour Flesh be better in the current meta than the cards removed (please also explain why you would MB/SB it).
Mutavault has no chance of making my deck. The manabase is already greedy enough and the easiest way to lose with this deck is not drawing a mana source you need.
-1 Island
+1 Godless Shrine
-1 Azorious Guildgate
+1 Plains
-2 Hero's Downfall
+2 Devour Flesh
If you're worried about Aggro, Hero's Downfall is not as good as Devour Flesh. I would say that you could afford to lose the Dark Betrayal's on the SB if you want to keep the Hero's Downfall's in your 75.
I'd also either MB AEtherling or get rid of him, what are you going to side him in against?
As for the mana, in my experience, it's crucial to hit that 2nd white source to cast Verdict T4 against Aggro. Even taking a shock if necessary can save you if the Aggro overextended to try and kill you before Verdict.
http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/modern/developing-competitive-modern/598381-kiki-chord-kiki-company
Bring to Niv
https://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/modern/deck-creation-modern/814060-bring-to-niv-the-golden-deck
Legacy - Lands
http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/legacy-type-1-5/established-legacy/control/535484-primer-lands
Not a fan of the Guildgate or 17 U sources. 16 gives you an 82% chance of UU on T3 and 86% T4. Along the same lines, you've only got 15 B sources. With 3 Hero's Downfall, it would be nice to have BB on T3, but you're down to 78%.
What prompted you to use the guildgate instead of a 4th Godless Shrine? Your current mana base is 17U/15B/15W, but you want UU and BB T3. I'd suggest you put the shrine back in, for 16U/16B/15W. That gives you an 82-83% chance of getting the mana you want on the turn you want it (UU and BB T3, WW T4).
(These numbers are all assuming one extra card exposed/drawn, be it from Scry or on the draw. You could conceivably be +/-3% or more in different scenarios, but I think think this is the average/most likely.)
I like your win con package. It would be nice to have a third BBoV in the main, but the control suite is so vital, there's not much to cut for it.
3 Thoughtseize and 3 Downfall feels like a lot when you only have five 2-cmc removal spells. Azorius Charm has been my least-favorite card in the deck for months. They're all good spells, but in a meta you expect to be aggro-heavy, what if you pulled a Thoughseize, Downfall, and Az Charm to the SB for the 2 Doom Blade and a third Dimir Charm? Now you've got a better chance at early removal with 7 at 2 mana and 6 at 3.
I'm very tempted to cut Dissolve entirely. I love the spell, but Esper Control is evolving into a sorcery-speed deck that answers everything on the board, and Thoughtseizes the rest. Experienced midrange/control players expect counterspells, and often either Thoughtseize us first or hold Gainsay as backup. Against aggro, you just wish it was removal (or Drown in Sorrow!), and against devotion, you might as well Thoughtseize their bomb and let them hope for a topdeck (which Dimir Charm can manipulate). I haven't tested it yet, but what about dropping Dissolve for Thoughtseize and/or Downfall? If you do that, drop an Island for a Plains.
As you pointed out in another post, I don't think you need Aetherling anymore. BBoV, Elspeth, and Elixir should probably be enough.
Notion Thief seems fun, except that the opponent is probably holding a counterspell to back up their Rev. Also, why do you think it's hard to remove post-board? Verdict, D Sphere, and Downfall should all still be present, no?
I'm also curious about the singleton Needle and Glare of Heresy. Are you expecting to eventually hit them in a drawn-out Elixir game?
What about Last Breath instead of Dark Betrayal?. It's just as strong against MBD -- it can kill Mutavault, and we still have Downfall, D Sphere, and Verdict for Desecration Demon -- and it's another option vs Mono-U and most aggro. The only MU I'd rather have Dark Betrayal is Jund aggro (8 B/x 3-power hasties), and that's pretty obscure.
Hope this helps. Best of luck this weekend!
I have been actively playing Esper the last two weeks, but they have been 4 round tournaments so take my opinion as you will,
- I agree with the comments on the manabase. I think that 16U sources is sufficient and that guildgates for the most part are trash. Guildgate > Plains/Godless.
- Devour Flesh has been imo the best 2CMC removal spell, especially if you are expecting some number of aggro/mono black decks. The main weakness of devour flesh is Master of Waves, but even against MonoU it is strong to keep devotion count low. I would cut some number of Heros Downfall/Azorius Charm to add Devour Flesh.
- Nightveil Spectre has without a doubt been the best sideboard card for me in my matches. Its insane against MonoU, MonoB and Control (especially if you are playing a high threat count). I would definitely make room for it (cutting 2 x dark betrayal, Aetherling and Dimir Charm).
General Opinions:
I think that playing proactively with a higher threat count is the way to go atm. It makes us weaker against other control decks, but stronger against the rest of the field (especially thoughtseize). You yourself are not predicting control in the meta so I would consider taking this approach.
3x Heroes Downfall is too much. Planeswalker kill spells in general are not the best because your opponent almost always gets value before you kill it. I get that are necessary, but I feel like you are overloading on this effect.
I agree with Aetherling being poor at the moment, and I have cut it from my sideboard.
After several suggestions I will take out the guildgate and return the Godless Shrine.
I think increasing the low-cost removal is a high priority. My experience vs aggro has usually left me one removal spell short of stabilizing. Conventional Wisdom says TS and HD are the most likely candidates to cut.
That being said, a less-popular idea might be to drop the Dissolve instead. The end result is a deck with cheaper disruption and more board control, which allows us to take the initiative and play more aggressively.
4 Watery Grave
4 Godless Shrine
4 Hallowed Fountain
4 Temple of Deceit
4 Temple of Silence
4 Island
3 Plains
Win-cons (8)
4 Jace, Architect of Thought
1 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
2 Blood Baron of Vizkopa
1 Elixir of Immortality
2 Devour Flesh
4 Supreme Verdict
4 Detention Sphere
2 Azorius Charm
2 Hero's Downfall
3 Dimir Charm
Disruption (4)
2 Thoughtseize
2 Dissolve
Card Advantage (4)
4 Sphinx's Revelation
2 Blood Baron of Vizkopa
1 Notion Thief
1 Pithing Needle
2 Gainsay
2 Negate
2 Thoughtseize
2 Doom Blade
1 Hero's Downfall
1 Dimir Charm
1 Glare of Heresy
I feel pretty good about this. I've added a bit more cheap removal, but kept the third Downfall in the board for MonoB, G/R, etc. My maindeck is a bit shaky against control so my sideboard really shores it up. 4 copies of Thoughtseize, Notion Thief, Needle, 4 more counter spells and Glare.
Dropped Aetherling entirely. I'm bringing in 11 cards against control in this iteration, I think that is more than enough. I'd love to have one more Gainsay, but such is life I guess.
There were 85-90 total including me. The field consisted of more Mono B than Mono U by a far margin and the Mono B and U ranged from not streamlined to basically Owen Turtenwald's list. There was also at least 10 to 15 players playing Esper, U/W and some American Control. Of my 7 prelim matches 3 were against Esper Control, 2 Mono B, 1 G/R Monsters, 1 Mono U. G/R Monsters was also a thing and you did see some Rakdos and some W/R Barely Boros. Overall though there was less aggro then I thought'd there'd be. (Don't quite consider Mono B and U aggro more midrange and tempo respectively) The level of play was also pretty high and there were some pros; for example, Kuo Tzu-Ching was playing Esper Control there that day.
Hope this helps!
That does help, I have some work to do.
For one thing, opponents can simply choose to rev when you rev. If you both leave up one slot for countermagic, flashing in notion thief means they can counter it. If you leave up two slots for countermagic... then it is not a very big rev and probably not worth it in the first place. In either case, your opponent can simply match the number of counterspell slots you leave open.
Notion thief is only good if they rev first and you can see how many countermagic slots they've left open. So as long as they don't rev first, you're okay.
Your best realistic case scenario is to steal a divination, which is still really good, but this is pretty much specific to the Azorius matchup and even then some of them only run 2, so the chances of notion thief actually lining up at a relevant time are pretty low.
Also you are esper, so they leave in verdicts and have no problems dealing with this card after it hits the board. If you're playing the esper mirror, the level of hand disruption brought in will significantly reduce the chances that anyone dives head first into a notion thief.
I've played several Asian Pro Players in recent weeks and they've had to take action other than what you suggest. One player went for a big revelation and left three mana up, I cast Dissolve anyway, and low and behold he was bluffing. No counter magic to back it up. I've done the same thing. It's pretty normal to bluff counter Magic. Also if my opponent is doing a big rev, I probably have All my mana up, so I can Notion Thief and counter is counter presumably. U/W control does typically take out at least two S.V. sometimes all four and bring in two Celestial flares.
But what you say about thief is true - if they rev first, you have the advantage and can probably steal the rev. The only issue I have is if they don't rev first but instead do it in response to you tapping out. So NT becomes kind of like a liability in the "land-go" game.
I'm not sure if I'll take him out of my sideboard, but it is worth exploring how the card does or doesn't work.
Do you have any experience siding him in against mono black? They bring in 3 Erebos.
Against MonoB NT is ok. Usually you steal a Underworld connection activation and end up trading him off for a creature in combat. I only have had him on the board in three games in that match-up but it was just so-so. I don't bring it in anymore unless the MonoB deck is a little rouge.
Aetherling went from mainboard, to sideboard, to out of the 75 for me. I just didn't use it much. In the control mirror I an beat a resolved Aetherling if I'm chaining Revs and Elixir. I can often counter their Elixir and just mill them out.
One Elspeth seems essential right now and will win a lot more games then the Aetherling, you might give it a try.
I think G2 he is pretty good against aggro decks (they can still brave through him...), but G2 he is bad against almost all the rest of the field. Monoblack brings in LBZ's against you, which means you are giving them the potential for a 2-for-1 in a matchup defined almost entirely by card advantage. Control doesn't care about BBOV. G/R monsters are all bigger than him and they have mortars anyway. Trading 1:1 at 5 mana is not what I want to be doing.
Although in the control matchup, playing BBOV can force them to tap out for verdict or elspeth, which you can then use to your advantage to push a bigger threat or to draw more cards. Subtle.
Aetherling is miserable versus aggro, BBoV is very good. How long does Aetherling sit in your hand versus MonoB? Till 8-9 mana.... I haven't lost a game to MonoB in a high level tournament. BBoV just gets it done. Against G/R I just win with Elspeth, Aetherling is unnecessary/.
Against control neither is needed. Not sure where Aetherling is meant to shine.
In the first round I played Mono-Black "splash" Blood Barons.
G1: I stabilize the board just facing down a Erebos and rip a Revelation for 6 and get 4 lands, Thoughtseize (his hand is empty and he can draw at instant speed), and an Azorius Charm. I flood out and get Merchanted out.
G2:My opponent misses his 4th and 5th land drops and has to discard 2x Grey Merchant, I'm a bit flooded but land an Elspeth and as he hits his creatures I fight through and get him.
G3:I have trouble hitting my land drops but it ends up being ok, but I lose on a terrible misplay. The match has 1 minute left, we both have pretty much nothing going on but I have a Revelation in my hand and a lot of lands but he has Pithing Needle on my Elspeth. I draw Detention Sphere and mindlessly name Pithing Needle (I HAVE A P.N. ON HIS F-ING WHIP!!!) I give him back his whip and get my Elspeth. On his turn he drops his thrid Grey Merchant and drains me for 8, than whips back a (now) 10/10 Lifelink BBoV! and I die. If I name Grey Merchant and then next turn Revelation I either draw or tiny, tiny chance to win but I blew it.
R2 I'm playing a very strange Esper deck that james tons of creatures mainboard.
G1:I get out Elspeth and he gets out an Obzedat that I fail to answer and then resolves 2 Aetherlings.
G2: Mull a two lander with no black, get back a single island, send it back and get Temple of Silence, Temple of deceit, Thoughtseize, Thoughtseize, Duress. I take his Ashiok, he takes my other Thoughtseize, I take his Elspeth, and then never draw any spell that game.
Out of 5 games my mana was only good in M2 G1. I had 4 mulligans due to one lander or 2 lander without color diversity. Really, really was upset for blowing M1 but what can you do? There is another tournament at another store tomorrow, I might go, I don't know. A little dejected right now.