Question for all you energy deck pilots out there: how frequently do you get mana screwed?
I raise this question because I recently stopped playing a Jund Energy list because I went through 3-4 consecutive weeks of Standard nights losing due to being mana screwed. Prior to that, I played R/G and B/G Energy and also stopped after losing too many games due to being mana screwed. At first I just thought I needed more lands, but all my list followed the same patterns as nearly all energy decks that performed well at SCG Opens, GPs, etc. Like them, I played 20-21 lands with 4x Attune with Aether. But that's one aspect of the energy decks that has me thinking: Is Attune with Aether really 1 full land towards your deck's land count? And does shuffling your deck after searching for your land increase your likelihood of being mana screwed?
Attune with Aether is functionally very similar to a fetchland. Thinning out your deck with lands doesn't really impact your land count all that much. Not enough that people run "extra" lands in other formats with a prevalence of fetchlands, for instance.
What it does do that can set you up for mana screw, which is demonstrably different from fetchlands, is that it costs one green mana instead of no mana. So there's a higher fail rate, particularly in tricolor decks that dabble to a nontrivial extent in their non-green colors, where you end up drawing Attune and no green mana.
Additionally, fetches can get duals, where Attune can get only a basic land. Attune certainly can't be considered a full source of every color in a tricolor deck, because you can end up with Bristling Hydra, Glorybringer, Ob Nixilis Reignited hands where you have a Game Trail, a Canyon Slough, and an Attune, and not be able to cast everything.
Of course, both of these things are color screw and not merely being stuck on lands. Are you having trouble with colors or land drops?
If it's land drops, play another land. No joke. I can only really speak experientially because I haven't done any formal observations in my games. But I just kept getting stuck on lands with 20-21 lands. That extends to the Delirium decks with Traverse the Ulvenwald, btw. I've honestly found that 23 lands is the right place to be with 4 Attune and/or 4 Traverse in those styles of decks, if you're counting on making land drops through turn 5 and don't operate very well if you stall out on 3 mana.
My extrapolation from that is that 4x Attune is really more like three lands instead of four, despite giving you four mana sources. I'm not sure why that would be the case.
My issues were only land drops, not so much colors. Although I completely agree that color screw is another big issue with these tricolor decks that shouldn't be overlooked. For reference, this was the most recent energy deck I played and subsequently stopped; it's based off the Jund Gods list played by Patrick Dickmann at PT (7-2), which also played the same number of lands.
Your explanation also touched on exactly what I was thinking in regards to land screw: the fact that you have to pay 1 Green to use Attune means that playing a land you searched for isn't really "making your land drop" for the turn because you just paid 1 Green. This also led me thinking that 4x Attune counts for 2-3 lands rather than a full 4; this means all those energy decks I see from mtggoldfish or SCG that are playing 3-4x Glorybringer or Verdurous Gearhulk with only 20-21 actual lands are in fact playing something like 22-24 instead of 24-25. It doesn't take someone like LSV to know that managing a deck containing 3-4 five-drops with only 22-24 lands is really pushing it.
Secondly, when I played Standard back in Khans of Tarkir era, all decks ran the adequate number of lands for their type: aggro decks like Atarka Red ran 20-22, midrange decks like Abzan ran 23-25, and control decks like Esper Dragons ran 26-27. My extrapolation is that everytime you shuffle your deck, you're reordering the cards so that it gives you a higher chance of being land screwed. This issue is less significant with the fetchlands since the fetchlands were actual lands and that after you fetch the land, there's still an adequate number of lands left. For example, if you're playing a Tricolor Energy deck with 20 lands and you play Attune with Aether on Turn 1, you're left with only 18 actual lands left in the deck and 3 more Attune with Aether; that's pretty low if you're hoping to bring out a Glorybringer or Gearhulk by Turn 5; color screw only makes this situation much worse because of that inherent risk of not drawing another green source after you've casted your Servant of the Conduit, Winding Constrictor, or Longtusk Cub on Turn 2.
That's only my speculation but it's my attempt to make sense of how on I could be mana screwed so consistently with these gosh darn energy builds. I'm sure there's some statistical explanation for how exactly this is happening but that is beyond my knowledge; maybe this is a topic Frank Karsten from CFB outta write about.
This issue is less significant with the fetchlands since the fetchlands were actual lands and that after you fetch the land, there's still an adequate number of lands left.
How so? Imagine two decks, one with 20 lands 4 attune, other 24 lands with 4 fetchlands in it.
Deck 1, 1 lander with attune:
Forest, attune. You now have 18 lands in deck and 3 attunes, 21 mana sources left, one land for sure in your hand.
Deck 2, 2 lander:
Fetch, search. You have one other land in hand, so you have 21 lands left in deck.
Its exaclty the same. Attune just consumes mana.
If you draw attune on turn two you can just skip it and play your two drop, then turn 3 go attune plus another 2 drop.
It's important to notice what your deck tries to do. Jund deck you posted with 21 lans and 4 attunes does not look into casting hulks. It is pure aggro deck. It has only 2 5-drops (glorybringer) and 5 4-drop. Lower we get 5 3-drops and whopping 14 2-drops and 7 1-drops + blossoming defences (excluding attunes here). This deck can probably operate on 2-3 lands for a while just fine.
If your deck tries to go for midrange plan with gearhulks, glorybringers more than deck up there, then 21 lands + 4 attune is for sure too low. Play more.
Also look into your shuffling. When i learnt to shuffle properly, decks started working more often.
Here Frank talks about lands. He said that we can realistically count fetchland as a full source, and with attune being close to a fetchland, I think we can assume it is a full mana source. Maybe when balancing your colors count it as 0.5 or 0.75, but for sake of making land drops, count it as full.
22 land with 4 attune, 4 hub and 4 servant seems to be enough for everyone, including myself. If anything you'll run out of gas and have too many lands sometimes (unless you aren't mulliganning bad hands).
I raise this question because I recently stopped playing a Jund Energy list because I went through 3-4 consecutive weeks of Standard nights losing due to being mana screwed. Prior to that, I played R/G and B/G Energy and also stopped after losing too many games due to being mana screwed. At first I just thought I needed more lands, but all my list followed the same patterns as nearly all energy decks that performed well at SCG Opens, GPs, etc. Like them, I played 20-21 lands with 4x Attune with Aether. But that's one aspect of the energy decks that has me thinking: Is Attune with Aether really 1 full land towards your deck's land count? And does shuffling your deck after searching for your land increase your likelihood of being mana screwed?
What it does do that can set you up for mana screw, which is demonstrably different from fetchlands, is that it costs one green mana instead of no mana. So there's a higher fail rate, particularly in tricolor decks that dabble to a nontrivial extent in their non-green colors, where you end up drawing Attune and no green mana.
Additionally, fetches can get duals, where Attune can get only a basic land. Attune certainly can't be considered a full source of every color in a tricolor deck, because you can end up with Bristling Hydra, Glorybringer, Ob Nixilis Reignited hands where you have a Game Trail, a Canyon Slough, and an Attune, and not be able to cast everything.
Of course, both of these things are color screw and not merely being stuck on lands. Are you having trouble with colors or land drops?
If it's land drops, play another land. No joke. I can only really speak experientially because I haven't done any formal observations in my games. But I just kept getting stuck on lands with 20-21 lands. That extends to the Delirium decks with Traverse the Ulvenwald, btw. I've honestly found that 23 lands is the right place to be with 4 Attune and/or 4 Traverse in those styles of decks, if you're counting on making land drops through turn 5 and don't operate very well if you stall out on 3 mana.
My extrapolation from that is that 4x Attune is really more like three lands instead of four, despite giving you four mana sources. I'm not sure why that would be the case.
GW ~ Angels ~ WG
Modern:
RBW ~ Shadowmancer ~ WBR
Legacy:
BUG ~ Shadow Delver ~ GUB
4x Voltaic Brawler
4x Greenbelt Rampager
4x Scrapheap Scrounger
3x Bristling Hydra
2x Glint-Sleeve Siphoner
2x Rhonas the Indomitable
2x Hazoret the Fervent
2x Glorybringer
Artifacts (4):
4x Heart of Kiran
Instants (8):
3x Unlicensed Disintegration
3x Fatal Push
2x Blossoming Defense
4x Attune with Aether
Lands (21):
4x Aether Hub
4x Blooming Marsh
4x Game Trail
2x Sheltered Thicket
2x Mountain
3x Forest
2x Swamp
3x Radiant Flames
3x Transgress the Mind
2x Release the Gremlins
2x Skysovereign, Consul Flagship
1x Nissa, Vital Force
1x Cut//Ribbons
1x Key to the City
1x Heroic Intervention
1x Fatal Push
Your explanation also touched on exactly what I was thinking in regards to land screw: the fact that you have to pay 1 Green to use Attune means that playing a land you searched for isn't really "making your land drop" for the turn because you just paid 1 Green. This also led me thinking that 4x Attune counts for 2-3 lands rather than a full 4; this means all those energy decks I see from mtggoldfish or SCG that are playing 3-4x Glorybringer or Verdurous Gearhulk with only 20-21 actual lands are in fact playing something like 22-24 instead of 24-25. It doesn't take someone like LSV to know that managing a deck containing 3-4 five-drops with only 22-24 lands is really pushing it.
Secondly, when I played Standard back in Khans of Tarkir era, all decks ran the adequate number of lands for their type: aggro decks like Atarka Red ran 20-22, midrange decks like Abzan ran 23-25, and control decks like Esper Dragons ran 26-27. My extrapolation is that everytime you shuffle your deck, you're reordering the cards so that it gives you a higher chance of being land screwed. This issue is less significant with the fetchlands since the fetchlands were actual lands and that after you fetch the land, there's still an adequate number of lands left. For example, if you're playing a Tricolor Energy deck with 20 lands and you play Attune with Aether on Turn 1, you're left with only 18 actual lands left in the deck and 3 more Attune with Aether; that's pretty low if you're hoping to bring out a Glorybringer or Gearhulk by Turn 5; color screw only makes this situation much worse because of that inherent risk of not drawing another green source after you've casted your Servant of the Conduit, Winding Constrictor, or Longtusk Cub on Turn 2.
That's only my speculation but it's my attempt to make sense of how on I could be mana screwed so consistently with these gosh darn energy builds. I'm sure there's some statistical explanation for how exactly this is happening but that is beyond my knowledge; maybe this is a topic Frank Karsten from CFB outta write about.
How so? Imagine two decks, one with 20 lands 4 attune, other 24 lands with 4 fetchlands in it.
Deck 1, 1 lander with attune:
Forest, attune. You now have 18 lands in deck and 3 attunes, 21 mana sources left, one land for sure in your hand.
Deck 2, 2 lander:
Fetch, search. You have one other land in hand, so you have 21 lands left in deck.
Its exaclty the same. Attune just consumes mana.
If you draw attune on turn two you can just skip it and play your two drop, then turn 3 go attune plus another 2 drop.
It's important to notice what your deck tries to do. Jund deck you posted with 21 lans and 4 attunes does not look into casting hulks. It is pure aggro deck. It has only 2 5-drops (glorybringer) and 5 4-drop. Lower we get 5 3-drops and whopping 14 2-drops and 7 1-drops + blossoming defences (excluding attunes here). This deck can probably operate on 2-3 lands for a while just fine.
If your deck tries to go for midrange plan with gearhulks, glorybringers more than deck up there, then 21 lands + 4 attune is for sure too low. Play more.
Also look into your shuffling. When i learnt to shuffle properly, decks started working more often.
https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/frank-analysis-how-many-colored-mana-sources-do-you-need-to-consistently-cast-your-spells/
Here Frank talks about lands. He said that we can realistically count fetchland as a full source, and with attune being close to a fetchland, I think we can assume it is a full mana source. Maybe when balancing your colors count it as 0.5 or 0.75, but for sake of making land drops, count it as full.
Are you playing 4 of each of those?