MTG Salvation

Sure hope that R Eldrazi goes nowhere.

Humans success interesting for sure, and yeah I guess the Phoenix folks stumbled in Limited.

Anyone know what the Top8 brackets were? I just got up

Quote from Spsiegel1987 »

Humans really good, too. So many people talked bad about that deck once spirits arrived as a top deck.

Humans is definitely still a good deck (never really wasn't), but it is being drastically pushed thanks to 4x Meddling Mage and seeing your opponent's decklist. Giving someone a menu of things to name, as early as turn 2, without the need to make that guess from their turn 1 play, is paramount to their success.

Except for when they don't even have meddling mage...this ain't yuuya watanabe not everyone was marking their cards.

Do all Humans deck still play a standard 3-4 Kitesail in the main? That's their other strong card, because it gives them an idea on what to name with mage.

The R eldrazi looks sweet. Having dismember in the main instead of lightning bolt reminds me of eldrazi winter days. Looks like the deck has potential to be improved.

Karsten posted full MWP (!!) data for the event on an official Wizards channel. It's very similar to the data EV posted earlier:
https://magic.wizards.com/en/events/coverage/2019MC2/modern-win-rates-and-interesting-decklists-2019-04-28

There are some oddities in either Karsten's data or his confidence interval calculation, and I'm not sure how he's finding the Ad Naus/Hardened Scales lower CI to be >50% on a 95% interval. But overall, it's great data. Humans definitely appears a strong contender again, and Tron appears very middling.

Here's the Modern-only data we wanted. Wizards noted that no player had a perfect 10-0 Modern record, so no one earned 30 points. The list below represents all decks with an 8-2 or better record. Wizards did not separate out 9-1s and 8-2s, and I don't want to do that parsing myself when the 8-2+ bracket is already a valuable grouping. Here's the Wizards' list:
https://magic.wizards.com/en/events/coverage/2019MC2/24-27-modern-match-point-decklists-2019-04-28

And here's my breakdown of conversion/representation rates of top decks. It's ordered from highest Day 2-->24+ Point conversion and includes both the Day 2% share and the 24+point% share. You'd read it like so: Ad Nauseam made up 1.9% (6 players) of the Day 2 metagame and 7.69% (2 players) of the 24+ point metagame, representing a 33.33% conversion rate of Day 2 --> 24+ players and an over-representation of +5.79% percentage points.

1. Ad Nauseam: 1.9% (n=6) --> 7.69% (n=2) (33.33% conversion / +5.79% representation)
2. Jund: 1.3% (n=4) --> 3.85% (n=1) (25% conversion / +2.55% representation)
3. Affinity: 1.6% (n=5) --> 3.85% (n=1) (20% conversion / +2.25% representation)
4. Titanshift: 2.2% (n=7) --> 3.85% (n=1) (14.29% conversion / +1.65% representation)
5. Humans: 9.7% (n=31) --> 15.38% (n=4) (12.9% conversion / +5.68% representation)
6. Izzet Phoenix: 12.2% (n=39) --> 19.23% (n=5) (12.82% conversion / +7.03% representation)
7. Eldrazi variants: 5.3% (n=17) --> 7.69% (n=2) (11.76% conversion / +2.39% representation)
8. Burn: 2.8% (n=9) --> 3.85% (n=1) (11.11% conversion / +1.05% representation)
9. Dredge: 6.6% (n=21) --> 7.69% (n=2) (9.52% conversion / +1.09% representation)
10. Whir Prison: 3.4% (n=11) --> 3.85% (n=1) (9.09% conversion / +0.45% representation)
11. W/U Control: 7.5% (n=24) --> 7.69% (n=2) (8.33% conversion / +0.19% representation)
12. Amulet Titan: 3.8% (n=12) --> 3.85% (n=1) (8.33% conversion / +0.05% representation)
13. Hardened Scales: 5.9% (n=19) --> 3.85% (n=1) (5.26% conversion / -2.05% representation)
14. Tron: 12.8% (n=41) --> 7.69% (n=2) (4.88% conversion / -5.11% representation)
15. Grixis Shadow: 5.3% (n=17) --> 0% (n=0) (0% conversion / -5.3% representation)
16. The Rock: 3.8% (n=12) --> 0% (n=0) (0% conversion / -3.8% representation)
17. Esper Control: 1.6% (n=5) --> 0% (n=0) (0% conversion / -1.6% representation)
18. Infect: 1.6% (n=5) --> 0% (n=0) (0% conversion / -1.6% representation)
19. Bogles: 0.9% (n=3) --> 0% (n=0) (0% conversion / -0.9% representation)
20. Other: 10% (n=32) --> 0% (n=0) (0% conversion / -10% representation)

Humans is the clear winner here, with the second highest 24+ point share (15.4%), the fourth highest conversion rate (12.9%) and the highest of decks with >10 Day 2 pilots, and the second highest over-representation (+5.7% points). Izzet Phoenix has comparable numbers: highest 24+ point share (19.2%), comparable Day 2 N (62 vs. 53), equal conversion rate (12.8%), and the highest over-representation of Day 2 to 24+ points (+7%).

All decks above Amulet Titan in the list had expected or better conversions into the 24+ points. Hardened Scales, Tron, GDS, BG Rock, Esper Control, Bogles, Infect, and the "Other" decks all fared much worse. Notably, 49 players played "Other" decks that weren't listed here representing 9.5% of Day 1 and 10% of Day 2, but ZERO of them (0%) made 24+ points. I'm comfortable viewing all these listed decks as the most viable 19 strategies in Modern, with everything else in a lower bracket of viability.

Also, Ad Nauseam looked really good in this event. Karsten identified it as having the highest MWP in the event and these metrics show it having the best conversion rate (33.3%) and one of the best representations (+5.8% relative to Day 2). Definitely a sleeper pick I would look into.

Ad Nauseam, just like the Titanshift list that Thien Nyugen ran with 3 Mwonvuli Acid-Moss, is very good against Tron. It's definitely good against other decks here as well, but I'm too sleepy right now to look them up.

Also pretty surprised, but not, that a local guy won the Pro Tour. I would look out for that team in the future if I were you guys.

Quote from ThatOneNinja »

Am I the only one excited about the Red Eldrazi deck Mark Jacobson piloted? I think there is a lot of potential to tune and polish that deck (not a fan of the Blood Moon plan personally).

It's just Colorless Eldrazi Stompy splash red for Obligator, a fine tech choice in metagames where Act of Treason is bound to be pretty good (i.e. vs. Death's Shadow/Wurmcoil Engine/Awoken Horror). Check out the thread on MTGS or my archives on Modern Nexus if you're interested in the deck's evolution/future.

Just taking modern into account, phoenix was a very powerful deck at the pro tour. Im surprised about how the deck performs even with a red dot on their head. Not in a bad way. It's a very powerful fair deck

Quote from Sabertooth »

Just taking modern into account, phoenix was a very powerful deck at the pro tour. Im surprised about how the deck performs even with a red dot on their head. Not in a bad way. It's a very powerful fair deck

Even if it does have a red dot on its forehead, it is a very resilient deck. I personally don't think it folds to cards, but there are DECKS that have positive matchups against it. In Modern, there's just too many decks to account for.

Thien Nyugen's Titanshift list is teched to beat Tron. That's what was in his sights, even if Titanshift already had a pretty good matchup vs. Tron. You never know what someone is shooting for in a format as diverse (too diverse) as Modern.

The mulligan rule hasn't been implemented for tournament play, outside of testing it during the Pro Tour though.

And most people I know, including myself, don't think it would be a positive change.

Has anyone else played against the Allosaurus rider combo deck? I got turn 1 killed on the draw which is the first time I can ever remember that happening in modern.

I have no idea how often this can happen, the person I played said they were winning on turn 1 30% of the time but I'm doubtful it's that high but even at just 10% that's still 1 in 10 games you get a free win because your opponent can't do anything. Leyline of the void? nope, leyline of sancitity? nope, surgical? nope. You'd need a mindbreak trap/disrupting shoal and hope they don't have a pact backup.

Obviously if you're on the play and have discard you can interact but looking at the top decks (tron, humans, phoenix, dredge, amulet titan, hardened scales) none of them have maindeck turn 1 ways to interact and even WU control with a path I'm not sure that it's enough just like the goryo's version since they already get to draw all the cards.

Hopefully it's just a novelty deck which doesn't see much play but if it sees any sort of traction or string of results something needs to be banned to slow the deck down.

When are they announcing if the london mulligan is going to be a real thing going forward or not?

Quote from lukey52 »

Has anyone else played against the Allosaurus rider combo deck? I got turn 1 killed on the draw which is the first time I can ever remember that happening in modern.

I have no idea how often this can happen, the person I played said they were winning on turn 1 30% of the time but I'm doubtful it's that high but even at just 10% that's still 1 in 10 games you get a free win because your opponent can't do anything. Leyline of the void? nope, leyline of sancitity? nope, surgical? nope. You'd need a mindbreak trap/disrupting shoal and hope they don't have a pact backup.

Obviously if you're on the play and have discard you can interact but looking at the top decks (tron, humans, phoenix, dredge, amulet titan, hardened scales) none of them have maindeck turn 1 ways to interact and even WU control with a path I'm not sure that it's enough just like the goryo's version since they already get to draw all the cards.

Hopefully it's just a novelty deck which doesn't see much play but if it sees any sort of traction or string of results something needs to be banned to slow the deck down.

I've seen it happen, linked a video of it (https://twitter.com/nikachumtg/status/1122513186081652736) and I have been Turn 1 killed before, but that was a Narset build.

I doubt it is that consistent, if it remains as such, well who knows.

Quote from idSurge »

Quote from lukey52 »

Has anyone else played against the Allosaurus rider combo deck? I got turn 1 killed on the draw which is the first time I can ever remember that happening in modern.

I have no idea how often this can happen, the person I played said they were winning on turn 1 30% of the time but I'm doubtful it's that high but even at just 10% that's still 1 in 10 games you get a free win because your opponent can't do anything. Leyline of the void? nope, leyline of sancitity? nope, surgical? nope. You'd need a mindbreak trap/disrupting shoal and hope they don't have a pact backup.

Obviously if you're on the play and have discard you can interact but looking at the top decks (tron, humans, phoenix, dredge, amulet titan, hardened scales) none of them have maindeck turn 1 ways to interact and even WU control with a path I'm not sure that it's enough just like the goryo's version since they already get to draw all the cards.

Hopefully it's just a novelty deck which doesn't see much play but if it sees any sort of traction or string of results something needs to be banned to slow the deck down.

I've seen it happen, linked a video of it (https://twitter.com/nikachumtg/status/1122513186081652736) and I have been Turn 1 killed before, but that was a Narset build.

I doubt it is that consistent, if it remains as such, well who knows.

In my 7 matches against it, it has pulled a turn 1 kill off with london mulligan on 6 of those matches. The problem is that after the turn 1 if it doesn't land a kill, it fold harder than goyros does.

Yes, its the peak of 'all in' but pretty neat to see it go off at all. :]

Just throw it on the pile of "well I guess I don't get to play magic this round" decks together with the other third of the format.

It is incredbily infuriating to me that from a set filled with so many cool goodies, the first big breakout appears to be yet another glass cannon combo deck.

This is probably fair. /s

I guess we'll see where it goes, but I won't be surprised when WotC does anything from an emergency ban to say it's "on their radar" for a year straight.

This probably explains why Allosaurus Rider is currently out of stock at SCG.

I am unsurprised that the current hot glass cannon deck leads to ban mania and speculation. There have been literally dozens of ban suggestions in the last 18 months, and at this point more ban hysteria is par for the course. Whether or not the deck ends up being banned is irrelevant. Ban discussion should only be based off auditable results in large fields and datasets. We can't change our ban analysis method just because a deck sparks panic. We also can't say a deck is bannable based off a few streamer games. Let's at least get some MOCS and Challenge events in the books before assessing the bannability of a deck.

Again, the ban mania reaction is inappropriate independently of whether or not a deck is ultimately banned. Bad analysis methods are bad whether or not they are right one in twenty (or more) times. If people speculate about bans on every top deck in Modern, which they did throughout all of 2017 and 2018, they are eventually going to be right. And they were this year: KCI did get banned. But that doesn't mean it's a good method when ever other ban candidate (Stirrings, Company, Temple, GDS, Vial, Cavern, Tron lands, Bridge, Moon, SSG, Opal, etc.) was safe. We need to condition ourselves to avoid this kneejerk reaction and wait for results before making statements like Justin Cohen's. Unfortunately, there is significant incentive to make those statements today, whether financial (people are speccing on Riders or some other piece,) social (people want the upvotes/shares), or just personal (people enjoy the praise and accolades of "Getting it right" or "Saying it first").

Thanks for this opinion and posting

Quote from gkourou »

@ktk, I am sorry for this and I said that you are right, but I already watched multiple games today with turn 0,turn 1,turn 2 kills.

The first two pictures are from a game where the opponent turn 0 killed kanister(I mean turn 1 before the opp plays a land), then turn 1 killed kanister.

There is no way this deck does not have consistency in pre-turn 4 kills.

Meanwhile, lot's of cards look silly on the banlist.

Again, it doesn't matter if the deck is ultimately broken. That shouldn't change our method of ban analysis. We need auditable results that make up a large dataset over multiple larger events/fields. Just because a knee-jerk ban mania response is right every 20 or so cards doesn't make it a good response or approach to banlist analysis. Streamers and social media perosnalities have significant incentive to overyhype these kinds of claims. It drives views, clicks, ad revenue, future partnerships, speculation targets, etc. We cannot rely on this as an indicator of anything. Wait for neutral, large N results

Quote from gkourou »

Quote from ktkenshinx »

Quote from gkourou »

@ktk, I am sorry for this and I said that you are right, but I already watched multiple games today with turn 0,turn 1,turn 2 kills.

The first two pictures are from a game where the opponent turn 0 killed kanister(I mean turn 1 before the opp plays a land), then turn 1 killed kanister.

There is no way this deck does not have consistency in pre-turn 4 kills.

Meanwhile, lot's of cards look silly on the banlist.

Again, it doesn't matter if the deck is ultimately broken. That shouldn't change our method of ban analysis. We need auditable results that make up a large dataset over multiple larger events/fields. Just because a knee-jerk ban mania response is right every 20 or so cards doesn't make it a good response or approach to banlist analysis. Streamers and social media perosnalities have significant incentive to overyhype these kinds of claims. It drives views, clicks, ad revenue, future partnerships, speculation targets, etc. We cannot rely on this as an indicator of anything. Wait for neutral, large N results

Well, we do not have to speak about bans, that's what you did not get. Most of us(me included) prefer no bans, unbans instead! But, I did have the pictures, and this is a thread about the state of the meta. I am telling you that the state of the meta in MODO right now, is closing in on lot's of pre-turn 4 kills. You don't have to turn every discussion about the meta into possible ban mania comments(unless you are referring to Justin Cohen and other notorious twitter posters).

This transition from an issue discussion to a hyperbolic, personal one ("You don't have to turn every discussion...") is unfortunate and inaccurate. Even a cursory review of my post history shows that I have not mentioned ban mania as an issue in this thread in months. Talking about the metagame is fine. Talking about bans or unbans is also fine. Speculating on bans with extremely limited data over an extremely limited time period is, however, ban mania. There is no good reason for posters in this thread or Magic personalities elsewhere to buy into this uncritical method of ban analysis/prediction. It doesn't matter if this bad method is right once every 20+ cards. It's still a bad method. Once we have data from events like Challenges and MOCS's or other similarly sized venues, we can revisit with a more informed perspective.

Reporting that people are pre-turn-3 killing opponents 50% of the time on MTGO is not ban mania. I counter your "knee-jerk ban-mania" claim with "anti-ban knee-jerk" claim! And double down for using the tired glass canon meme. Yes, combo-decks that are disrupted mid-combo fail to win, we know that.

The key points with this new deck are that:

1. It draws the entire library.
2. It kills on the turn it goes off.
3. Due 1 and 2, it can run pact of negation for protection.
4. Due to 1, it can ensure it has pact in hand.

There is a reason Enter the Infinite is 12 mana. It basically is ad-nauseam, but with a faster clock, an earlier fundamental turn. Sure, people can start packing dispel or some 1-mana creature bounce as a reaction, but that would not be healthy. (And still fails if they happen to have pact of negation in hand.)

Funny coincidence that Allosaurus Rider is also a dinosaur. I remember how Rampaging Ferocidon got pre-emptively banned. Will WoTC do the same with the rider?

Quote from The Fluff »

Funny coincidence that Allosaurus Rider is also a dinosaur. I remember how Rampaging Ferocidon got pre-emptively banned. Will WoTC do the same with the rider?

Ferocidon wasn't pre-emptively banned. It was legal for like 4 months before they banned it and Ramanup Ruins.