Sword of plowshares would make shadow in modern unplayable
Its close enough to be functionally Condemn. It wouldnt do ***** to GDS, they would just Stubborn it and move on. Sword's is pretty much what a Modern playable looks like.
Condemn isa lot worse because of discard. If ashadow player expects it, they can wait to attack until they find a discard/counter spell. Not the case with plow.
I don't think there is a ton of room for design on 1 mana removal. I doubt WotC will print anything better than Path, Push, and Bolt. We just got Necrotic Wound and I don't think I've seen it mentioned once for modern after the release of the set. I do hope they continue to experiment with 2 mana removal though. I think Trophy was a really good design, but it's power is in it's flexibility and not it's single application use. What we need is a 2 mana removal with some real single application punching power.
Would we accept an instant speed removal that 2-for-1s at 2 mana?
What would you tack onto a creature only removal spell to make it Path/Push/Bolt level at 2 mana?
Sword of plowshares would make shadow in modern unplayable
Its close enough to be functionally Condemn. It wouldnt do ***** to GDS, they would just Stubborn it and move on. Sword's is pretty much what a Modern playable looks like.
You shouldn't forget that all white decks would be able to play up to 8 one mana removal spells that basicaly don't care about textboxes of creatures. The Control matchup already isn't the best. It certainly wouldn't get better.
Besides in what Standard would this be fine? Maybe in one where everything has hexproof or protection from white or instants which obviously comes with a slew of other problems.
Sword of plowshares would make shadow in modern unplayable
Its close enough to be functionally Condemn. It wouldnt do ***** to GDS, they would just Stubborn it and move on. Sword's is pretty much what a Modern playable looks like.
You shouldn't forget that all white decks would be able to play up to 8 one mana removal spells that basicaly don't care about textboxes of creatures. The Control matchup already isn't the best. It certainly wouldn't get better.
Besides in what Standard would this be fine? Maybe in one where everything has hexproof or protection from white or instants which obviously comes with a slew of other problems.
How about another Alara standard? Path to Exile made it's first appearance in Conflux. If we someday return to Alara, they could print Swords to Plowshares instead of Path.
Interesting to think what would happen. Which decks would use 4 path and 4 swords? Would Zoo decks use all 8 white removals? Would uw control decks do the same? Oh well, just gonna think about it when it happens.
________________
(a) format event attendance, mapped over set releases and large events, and bans/unbans, over a five year period.
This would give us a clue as to what each ban or unban accomplishes from event attendance pov.
It may also enable us to see how much the health of one format affects the attendance of another, although disentangling the data to isolate the effects might be challenging. When modern attendance drops where does it go? When overall attendance goes down does it go down proportionally for each format?
(B) and (C) are probably hard to come by and likely out of our reach. For (A), we do have full attendance data for all Modern GP and SCG Open/Classic events basically for the existence of the format. I think we'd also have some Hareruya event attendance, at least for their bigger events, as well as some of the Italian events. It's definitely not FNM-level data, but it's something, and one could try and identify trends in that data as related to B&R decisions.
Yes, I expect neither the b or c part of my data wants.
It would be interesting looking at larger events, but I would guess many have their own unique factors associated with them. E. G. a modern GP placed in an expensive city or with a Legacy GP nearby the month after might be lower than it otherwise would be. Fnm and online data would be ideal.
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People with belligerent signatures are trying to compensate for something....
In this article, he makes some bold claims about the modern format as it currently stands:
. Bant Spirits has now all but completely separated itself from Humans as the top creature deck in Modern.
. Izzet Phoenix, first popularized by Ross Merriam with his win at SCG Baltimore in late November, has solidified itself as a top-tier contender in Modern. The deck continues to evolve week to week, and the lists are tuned enough at this stage to beat the metagame at large. The deck makes sure to follow the cardinal rule of Modern right now (have a Turn 4 goldfish), so it's hard to go wrong here.
. Grixis Death's Shadow has seen a recent resurgence, as players have started to pick up the deck again and tune it properly. Besides Bant Spirits, Grixis Death's Shadow is the other top disruptive deck in the format. A deck such as this one thrives in a format that is degenerate and fast, so this is to be expected.
. Amulet Titan, Ironworks, Tron, and Dredge all still sit at the top of the format as degenerate powerhouses, generally impervious to the hate cards that so frequently end up in sideboards. Ironworks uses Sai, Master Thopterist to easily circumvent Stony Silence and Rest in Peace; Dredge comes more than prepared for the hate it faces; Amulet Titan gets to live in a format devoid of Blood Moons; and Tron is, well, Tron.
. Short of Grixis Death's Shadow and Bant Spirits, it doesn't make sense to play fair or interact in Modern right now. Your goal should be to get your opponent dead on Turn 3 (yes, Turn 3!) or 4, and then know how to dodge sideboard cards.
Are these statements true for the entire format at larger or only for the specific metagame found at SCG events?
My opinion: you often can't beat decks with permanent sideboardcards, because your opponent destroy them easy with playset nature's claim as examples or engineered explosives (8cards..they will have it sure) . Tron, dredge, Kci even amulet... You need narrow cards like ghost quarter and tectonic edge VS Tron and amulet, surgical vs dredge and kci. You can't beat them with bloodmoon or damping sphere or stony silence or grafdiggers cage etc and this makes it difficult to beat them. Even if you draw your sideboard they can go infinity after destroying end of your turn. This is not difficult for them or lucky.
In this article, he makes some bold claims about the modern format as it currently stands:
. Bant Spirits has now all but completely separated itself from Humans as the top creature deck in Modern.
. Izzet Phoenix, first popularized by Ross Merriam with his win at SCG Baltimore in late November, has solidified itself as a top-tier contender in Modern. The deck continues to evolve week to week, and the lists are tuned enough at this stage to beat the metagame at large. The deck makes sure to follow the cardinal rule of Modern right now (have a Turn 4 goldfish), so it's hard to go wrong here.
. Grixis Death's Shadow has seen a recent resurgence, as players have started to pick up the deck again and tune it properly. Besides Bant Spirits, Grixis Death's Shadow is the other top disruptive deck in the format. A deck such as this one thrives in a format that is degenerate and fast, so this is to be expected.
. Amulet Titan, Ironworks, Tron, and Dredge all still sit at the top of the format as degenerate powerhouses, generally impervious to the hate cards that so frequently end up in sideboards. Ironworks uses Sai, Master Thopterist to easily circumvent Stony Silence and Rest in Peace; Dredge comes more than prepared for the hate it faces; Amulet Titan gets to live in a format devoid of Blood Moons; and Tron is, well, Tron.
. Short of Grixis Death's Shadow and Bant Spirits, it doesn't make sense to play fair or interact in Modern right now. Your goal should be to get your opponent dead on Turn 3 (yes, Turn 3!) or 4, and then know how to dodge sideboard cards.
Are these statements true for the entire format at larger or only for the specific metagame found at SCG events?
The bone I would pick with that analysis is naming Amulet Titan among decks "at the top of the format as degenerate powerhouses". It's oddly popular on the SCG circuit, but that's definitely not the case on MTGO, or at GPs, I don't think. Also Ironworks has never seen a lot of play online, outside of short hype spikes.
The bone I would pick with that analysis is naming Amulet Titan among decks "at the top of the format as degenerate powerhouses". It's oddly popular on the SCG circuit, but that's definitely not the case on MTGO, or at GPs, I don't think. Also Ironworks has never seen a lot of play online, outside of short hype spikes.
Thanks. This is good to know, as I don't play MTGO at all, so I really mostly have no idea of what goes on there. Online trends are good to know and good to compare with paper trends.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Someone as competitive as you, I'm surprised your not online. You could get in as many rep's as you could want there.
This is true. For me, not going online was a way to avoid having another addiction (in addition to paper Magic). In the recent years, it's more of a "I can top 8 or I can win this tournament without the same resources as you." I'm trying to prove that it can be done without that particular resource, but I also know in the end that I'm doing myself a big disservice. That's okay. I'm starting to move toward the casual side (premodern and cube) and the financial side more than the competitive side.
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
The bone I would pick with that analysis is naming Amulet Titan among decks "at the top of the format as degenerate powerhouses". It's oddly popular on the SCG circuit, but that's definitely not the case on MTGO, or at GPs, I don't think. Also Ironworks has never seen a lot of play online, outside of short hype spikes.
Thanks. This is good to know, as I don't play MTGO at all, so I really mostly have no idea of what goes on there. Online trends are good to know and good to compare with paper trends.
KCI isn't online as much because the combo loop is extremely slow and tedious to click through. If opponents don't scoop, it's entirely possible that the KCI pilot simply times out, especially if the match goes to 3 games.
Since there has been some great statistical work presented in this thread recently, I would like to continue this trend by analyzing play/draw.
How many games have been won while on the play vs on the draw in modern? How does this compare to other formats such as standard, limited, and legacy. And finally, how do these numbers compare on a year-by-year basis.
I am sure we can all agree that more games are won on the play than draw, but how large of a difference is it? If the difference is large, should this be worrisome? With Magic Arena supporting best-of-one matches, will something in the rules need to be changed to better accommodate this?
as for that article by dylan hand: am i the only one who sees the irony of a writer who works in informatics, and specifically wrote an article on the importance of data using none of it to back his statements?
'data is very important in making decisions in magic. take a look at my arbitrary list of the best decks...'
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
I am sure we can all agree that more games are won on the play than draw, but how large of a difference is it? If the difference is large, should this be worrisome? With Magic Arena supporting best-of-one matches, will something in the rules need to be changed to better accommodate this?
Anecdotal evidence/stories from the Ranked Ladder seem to show it is a huge factor. Since there are a handful of plugins available for Arena (many of which do cumulative tracking), it's entirely possible to gather enough points from enough games played with enough willing participants. But WOTC being WOTC probably doesn't actually see a problem with it, just as they don't see the "problem" of Modern trending to fast/linear over the past few years (which leans into play/draw), but declaring it "healthy" anyway.
As far as stats, I'm reminded of my favorite jokes:
A Statistical Department is hiring mathematicians. Three recent graduates are invited for an interview: one has a degree in pure mathematics, another one in applied math, and the third one obtained his B.Sc. in statistics.
All three are asked the same question: "What is one third plus two thirds?"
The pure mathematician: "It's one."
The applied mathematician takes out his pocket calculator, punches in the numbers, and replies: "It's 0.999999999."
The statistician: "What do you want it to be?"
Since there has been some great statistical work presented in this thread recently, I would like to continue this trend by analyzing play/draw.
How many games have been won while on the play vs on the draw in modern? How does this compare to other formats such as standard, limited, and legacy. And finally, how do these numbers compare on a year-by-year basis.
I am sure we can all agree that more games are won on the play than draw, but how large of a difference is it? If the difference is large, should this be worrisome? With Magic Arena supporting best-of-one matches, will something in the rules need to be changed to better accommodate this?
I actually just plugged a batch of data into pierakor's MTGO Replay Tool (which is amazing, I encourage everyone to use it) so I have this info. From 1503 matches played with Tron, I won 62% of games on the play and 53% on the draw, so a 9% difference on average.
A few matchups were surprisingly below that average, with Burn at 45.2%/51.3%, Hollow One 51.8%/54.2%, and Storm 56.6%/53.9%(winning more on the draw!)
Some big differences were Humans - 54% win on the draw compared with 87.2% on the play! Boggles 50% draw vs 77.4% play, and Infect - just 16.1% win on the draw and 44.2% on the play.
Since there has been some great statistical work presented in this thread recently, I would like to continue this trend by analyzing play/draw.
How many games have been won while on the play vs on the draw in modern? How does this compare to other formats such as standard, limited, and legacy. And finally, how do these numbers compare on a year-by-year basis.
I am sure we can all agree that more games are won on the play than draw, but how large of a difference is it? If the difference is large, should this be worrisome? With Magic Arena supporting best-of-one matches, will something in the rules need to be changed to better accommodate this?
I actually just plugged a batch of data into pierakor's MTGO Replay Tool (which is amazing, I encourage everyone to use it) so I have this info. From 1503 matches played with Tron, I won 62% of games on the play and 53% on the draw, so a 9% difference on average.
A few matchups were surprisingly below that average, with Burn at 45.2%/51.3%, Hollow One 51.8%/54.2%, and Storm 56.6%/53.9%(winning more on the draw!)
Some big differences were Humans - 54% win on the draw compared with 87.2% on the play! Boggles 50% draw vs 77.4% play, and Infect - just 16.1% win on the draw and 44.2% on the play.
Some very interesting results. Would be fascinating to see this breakdown using a large player sample (like the turn N kill from earlier). It appears to validate many of the claims of play/draw mattering a lot in Modern. Or at least mattering a lot for a certain subset of decks.
Since there has been some great statistical work presented in this thread recently, I would like to continue this trend by analyzing play/draw.
How many games have been won while on the play vs on the draw in modern? How does this compare to other formats such as standard, limited, and legacy. And finally, how do these numbers compare on a year-by-year basis.
I am sure we can all agree that more games are won on the play than draw, but how large of a difference is it? If the difference is large, should this be worrisome? With Magic Arena supporting best-of-one matches, will something in the rules need to be changed to better accommodate this?
I actually just plugged a batch of data into pierakor's MTGO Replay Tool (which is amazing, I encourage everyone to use it) so I have this info. From 1503 matches played with Tron, I won 62% of games on the play and 53% on the draw, so a 9% difference on average.
A few matchups were surprisingly below that average, with Burn at 45.2%/51.3%, Hollow One 51.8%/54.2%, and Storm 56.6%/53.9%(winning more on the draw!)
Some big differences were Humans - 54% win on the draw compared with 87.2% on the play! Boggles 50% draw vs 77.4% play, and Infect - just 16.1% win on the draw and 44.2% on the play.
Some very interesting results. Would be fascinating to see this breakdown using a large player sample (like the turn N kill from earlier). It appears to validate many of the claims of play/draw mattering a lot in Modern. Or at least mattering a lot for a certain subset of decks.
I would be more interested in seeing the comparison between formats. If Standard decks had the same distribution, that would point to a wider Magic issue. If they didn't, and worse, if Legacy didn't either, then we could successfully isolate a Modern phenomenon.
Since there has been some great statistical work presented in this thread recently, I would like to continue this trend by analyzing play/draw.
How many games have been won while on the play vs on the draw in modern? How does this compare to other formats such as standard, limited, and legacy. And finally, how do these numbers compare on a year-by-year basis.
I am sure we can all agree that more games are won on the play than draw, but how large of a difference is it? If the difference is large, should this be worrisome? With Magic Arena supporting best-of-one matches, will something in the rules need to be changed to better accommodate this?
I actually just plugged a batch of data into pierakor's MTGO Replay Tool (which is amazing, I encourage everyone to use it) so I have this info. From 1503 matches played with Tron, I won 62% of games on the play and 53% on the draw, so a 9% difference on average.
A few matchups were surprisingly below that average, with Burn at 45.2%/51.3%, Hollow One 51.8%/54.2%, and Storm 56.6%/53.9%(winning more on the draw!)
Some big differences were Humans - 54% win on the draw compared with 87.2% on the play! Boggles 50% draw vs 77.4% play, and Infect - just 16.1% win on the draw and 44.2% on the play.
Some very interesting results. Would be fascinating to see this breakdown using a large player sample (like the turn N kill from earlier). It appears to validate many of the claims of play/draw mattering a lot in Modern. Or at least mattering a lot for a certain subset of decks.
I would be more interested in seeing the comparison between formats. If Standard decks had the same distribution, that would point to a wider Magic issue. If they didn't, and worse, if Legacy didn't either, then we could successfully isolate a Modern phenomenon.
Would highly depend on where you're looking in Standard. For example, the Arena Ranked Ladder is going to give you wildly different results than an MTGO League. Given the kinds of decks/results I see in the Ranked Ladder, I'd hazard a guess it's closer to the Humans/Bogles side of things. I have no idea what the MTGO/paper meta looks like for Standard.
Most interesting thing is this is a totally verifiable thing to get with crowd-sourced replays. Perhaps someone with a big Reddit reputation could try to gather such data.
I would be more interested in seeing the comparison between formats. If Standard decks had the same distribution, that would point to a wider Magic issue. If they didn't, and worse, if Legacy didn't either, then we could successfully isolate a Modern phenomenon.
Indeed. How much of an impact do the powerful generic answer cards in legacy make to play/draw win %? Do things like Force of Will, Wasteland, and Daze allow for games to go longer and thus reduce the win rate of the player who starts? Or, on the other hand, do the existence of more turn 1 and turn 2 kill decks sway it in the opposite direction and make the first player more likely to win?
Its close enough to be functionally Condemn. It wouldnt do ***** to GDS, they would just Stubborn it and move on. Sword's is pretty much what a Modern playable looks like.
Spirits
Would we accept an instant speed removal that 2-for-1s at 2 mana?
What would you tack onto a creature only removal spell to make it Path/Push/Bolt level at 2 mana?
"Reveal a Dragon"
You shouldn't forget that all white decks would be able to play up to 8 one mana removal spells that basicaly don't care about textboxes of creatures. The Control matchup already isn't the best. It certainly wouldn't get better.
Besides in what Standard would this be fine? Maybe in one where everything has hexproof or protection from white or instants which obviously comes with a slew of other problems.
How about another Alara standard? Path to Exile made it's first appearance in Conflux. If we someday return to Alara, they could print Swords to Plowshares instead of Path.
Interesting to think what would happen. Which decks would use 4 path and 4 swords? Would Zoo decks use all 8 white removals? Would uw control decks do the same? Oh well, just gonna think about it when it happens.
________________
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Want to play a UW control deck in modern, but don't have jace or snaps?
Please come visit us at the Emeria Titan control thread
Yes, I expect neither the b or c part of my data wants.
It would be interesting looking at larger events, but I would guess many have their own unique factors associated with them. E. G. a modern GP placed in an expensive city or with a Legacy GP nearby the month after might be lower than it otherwise would be. Fnm and online data would be ideal.
http://www.starcitygames.com/articles/38136_How-To-Prepare-For-SCG-Columbus.html
In this article, he makes some bold claims about the modern format as it currently stands:
Are these statements true for the entire format at larger or only for the specific metagame found at SCG events?
Is there any release date?
BGUSultai Shadow
BURGrixis Shadow
BGUSultai midrange
BRWMardu Pyromancer
BGRJund
Online, SCG and GP level, I'd say that's correct.
Spirits
Thanks. This is good to know, as I don't play MTGO at all, so I really mostly have no idea of what goes on there. Online trends are good to know and good to compare with paper trends.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Spirits
This is true. For me, not going online was a way to avoid having another addiction (in addition to paper Magic). In the recent years, it's more of a "I can top 8 or I can win this tournament without the same resources as you." I'm trying to prove that it can be done without that particular resource, but I also know in the end that I'm doing myself a big disservice. That's okay. I'm starting to move toward the casual side (premodern and cube) and the financial side more than the competitive side.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
How many games have been won while on the play vs on the draw in modern? How does this compare to other formats such as standard, limited, and legacy. And finally, how do these numbers compare on a year-by-year basis.
I am sure we can all agree that more games are won on the play than draw, but how large of a difference is it? If the difference is large, should this be worrisome? With Magic Arena supporting best-of-one matches, will something in the rules need to be changed to better accommodate this?
'data is very important in making decisions in magic. take a look at my arbitrary list of the best decks...'
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Anecdotal evidence/stories from the Ranked Ladder seem to show it is a huge factor. Since there are a handful of plugins available for Arena (many of which do cumulative tracking), it's entirely possible to gather enough points from enough games played with enough willing participants. But WOTC being WOTC probably doesn't actually see a problem with it, just as they don't see the "problem" of Modern trending to fast/linear over the past few years (which leans into play/draw), but declaring it "healthy" anyway.
As far as stats, I'm reminded of my favorite jokes:
A Statistical Department is hiring mathematicians. Three recent graduates are invited for an interview: one has a degree in pure mathematics, another one in applied math, and the third one obtained his B.Sc. in statistics.
All three are asked the same question: "What is one third plus two thirds?"
The pure mathematician: "It's one."
The applied mathematician takes out his pocket calculator, punches in the numbers, and replies: "It's 0.999999999."
The statistician: "What do you want it to be?"
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
A few matchups were surprisingly below that average, with Burn at 45.2%/51.3%, Hollow One 51.8%/54.2%, and Storm 56.6%/53.9%(winning more on the draw!)
Some big differences were Humans - 54% win on the draw compared with 87.2% on the play! Boggles 50% draw vs 77.4% play, and Infect - just 16.1% win on the draw and 44.2% on the play.
Some very interesting results. Would be fascinating to see this breakdown using a large player sample (like the turn N kill from earlier). It appears to validate many of the claims of play/draw mattering a lot in Modern. Or at least mattering a lot for a certain subset of decks.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
I would be more interested in seeing the comparison between formats. If Standard decks had the same distribution, that would point to a wider Magic issue. If they didn't, and worse, if Legacy didn't either, then we could successfully isolate a Modern phenomenon.
Would highly depend on where you're looking in Standard. For example, the Arena Ranked Ladder is going to give you wildly different results than an MTGO League. Given the kinds of decks/results I see in the Ranked Ladder, I'd hazard a guess it's closer to the Humans/Bogles side of things. I have no idea what the MTGO/paper meta looks like for Standard.
Most interesting thing is this is a totally verifiable thing to get with crowd-sourced replays. Perhaps someone with a big Reddit reputation could try to gather such data.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Indeed. How much of an impact do the powerful generic answer cards in legacy make to play/draw win %? Do things like Force of Will, Wasteland, and Daze allow for games to go longer and thus reduce the win rate of the player who starts? Or, on the other hand, do the existence of more turn 1 and turn 2 kill decks sway it in the opposite direction and make the first player more likely to win?