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Quote from cfusionpm »As "good" as Settle may or may not be, basically no meaningful deck is playing it, and the few that might, play 0-1 copies in the 75.
Quote from MrTzoulis »Saying Settle sees little to no play (or less than verdict) in modern is absurd and suggests a lack of knowledge for the archetype(s) that play it.
Each and every deck that can play both typically plays +1 Settle over Verdict, usually a 2-1 split in favor of Settle. It's the 2nd best 4cmc sweeper after verdict (and arguably the best in Mdern). Hell, I even put 2 in a Boros midrange jank brew that I played a few times over Wrath of God.
It's just THAT good.
Quote from idSurge »So something I was thinking about, is the puzzle of 'What to Play', for myself really, but I wanted to get it in front of more eyes.
If you did not want to lose to UW, GDS, and Tron (the 3 main builds of each) what would you play?
Quote from sicsmoo »I'd be interested to know the N for that UW Spirits data. IME Spirits is one of Tron's best matchups, and this has been echoed by Kat Light and other Spirits players. I'm guessing it's a small sample because UW was only played for a bit and has basically disappeared at this point. Though there is very little practical difference from the Tron side between UW or Bant, FWIW.
Quote from Cody_X »Burn seems like a pretty good choice vs uw/tron/gds too, especially if you go hard on stuff like firecraft.
Quote from Galerion »Just saw this on Channel Fireball. A metagsme analysis of GP Portland
Quote from Thenarus »Would a Preordain unban be more realistic if Manamorphose was banned? I'm not normally a fan of any swap ban arguments, but Manamorphose is a key card for the Arclight Phoenix decks as well as Storm. If the Phoenix decks in particular end up dominant, I would expect Manamorphose to be one of the first cards on the chopping block, as it's one of the most critical pieces to explosive early turns.
Quote from DaveJacinto »From Phoenix being a good deck and Preordain improving it slightly to Preordain isn't safe to unban goes a long way.
I don't know the definite answers to any of these questions, but I know that spreading the fear of unbanning something like Preordain that could have potential effect in so many different decks and archetypes, will lead to a place where no generic good card will ever be unbanned.
Quote from cfusionpm »Quote from Thenarus »Would a Preordain unban be more realistic if Manamorphose was banned? I'm not normally a fan of any swap ban arguments, but Manamorphose is a key card for the Arclight Phoenix decks as well as Storm. If the Phoenix decks in particular end up dominant, I would expect Manamorphose to be one of the first cards on the chopping block, as it's one of the most critical pieces to explosive early turns.
Manamorphose is orders of magnitude more powerful than Preordain in those decks.
It can be shown mathematically that Preordain's gains over the current cantrip suite available to Modern is minimal at best. Just more fear and doomsaying.
Quote from ktkenshinx »Also, I've heard people cite this Preordain vs. SV/Sleight math comparison before, but I don't think I've seen it. I've seen simulations of how the cantrips affect your likelihood of finding cards (see stuff like http://www.joseprio.com/blog/2013/04/24/ponder-vs.-preordain-vs.-the-rest/), but I have not seen how this plays out in actual games or metagame standings. If someone has that analysis, I'd love to see it. If the only analysis we have is how Preordain gains margins over SV, however, then that's not a very useful analysis for unbanning purposes; it's not the case that if Preordain digs N% better than SV, that decks which benefit from Preordain gain N% metagame share. Rather, they gain X% metagame share, and the relationship between N and X is totally unknown.
Quote from ktkenshinx »Quote from Cody_X »Burn seems like a pretty good choice vs uw/tron/gds too, especially if you go hard on stuff like firecraft.
Burn is positive in the dataset against Gx Tron and GDS. It's around 44% vs. UW Control with about 75 matches recorded. Most GDS pros seem to think Burn is actually about even with GDS too, so the true MWP might be lower. Complicating matters further, Nassif thinks UW Control is actually unfavored vs. Burn, so that's another discrepancy with the data. Most of the better players I could find on Reddit/Twitter put it more in the "even" category.
As for Bant Spirits vs. Tron, I've looked at a bunch of pro articles, Reddit comment threads, and forum discussions. The consensus seems to be it's about even overall and worse in G1 than in G2/G3 where Spirits can win back percentage points: see Mengucci, Stevens, Strasky, and PVDDR for pros who echo that sentiment. Baumeister rated it as favorable, but he's less experienced with the deck than people like Strasky, so I don't credit his opinion too heavily.
Overall, matchup estimations are pretty messy. I rarely find clear answers to these questions, and I'm only confident in the MWP numbers that are >100 matches. In the dataset, that really limits it to stuff like Humans vs. Gx Tron, Humans vs. Burn, and UW Control vs. Humans. Karsten wrote a great article on using smaller Ns to estimate matchups (https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/magic-math-how-many-games-do-you-need-for-statistical-significance-in-playtesting/), demonstrating how we don't need 10,000 games to actually have a good sense of the matchup odds. By those metrics, we'd probably find a lot of matches closer to even than we think. Some would still remain polarized, such as the notoriously bad Jeskai vs. Gx Tron, Gx Tron vs. Infect, and others.
Quote from Grim_Flayer »^Interesing data, guys.
On a related note: I once read (can’t remember where) some statistics from a player with an enormous amount of matches on the same deck reporting a ~5% (from memory) winrate decline when comparing Friendly League results with those of Competitive Leagues. In other words, a pilot whose winrate is 60% over the course of many Friendlies could reasonably expect to clock in around 55% in Comps.
Does anyone here have supporting or countervailing data/experiences?
Quote from Huviam »The only argument against the Stoneforge mystic unban is that every white deck would run it, thus warping the usage of the card. BUT, most 1 drops are used already in tons of decks, like Noble hierarch and Faithless looting.