Any notion of difficulty is going to be *entirely* subjective. Necessarily, your perspective on difficulty is your own. You can't use your own sense of difficulty as a basis for forming other arguments, as if what you personally find easy is some sort of universal constant.
As a teacher, it took me a while to properly get that. No matter how difficult you find something, someone else will find it trivial. And the reverse is also true. The most basic, fundamental easy task can seem impossible to others.
Arguing over what you personally feel is more difficult or less difficult is going to be a cyclical, pointless exercise. It doesn't matter how hard you try to back yourself up or 'logic' your arguments, it doesn't work. Everyone's different. What's easy for you won't necessarily be easy for others etc.
Any notion of difficulty is going to be *entirely* subjective. Necessarily, your perspective on difficulty is your own. You can't use your own sense of difficulty as a basis for forming other arguments, as if what you personally find easy is some sort of universal constant.
As a teacher, it took me a while to properly get that. No matter how difficult you find something, someone else will find it trivial. And the reverse is also true. The most basic, fundamental easy task can seem impossible to others.
Arguing over what you personally feel is more difficult or less difficult is going to be a cyclical, pointless exercise. It doesn't matter how hard you try to back yourself up or 'logic' your arguments, it doesn't work. Everyone's different. What's easy for you won't necessarily be easy for others etc.
True. I'm sorry I brought it up.
I for one should definitely know this. I can barely play Burn, but I know how to play Combo decks pretty well. Midrange doesn't feel tough to me, but I am probably overestimating myself and have just gotten lucky the few times I've played it. Control does feel tough, but only because I haven't played it much in the past 8 years. I feel that I could get it back if I wanted (since I did spend a lot of time playing it in the past), but just haven't put in the reps.
*Funny story I have from a while back when Tron was RG. I tried Tron because I heard that people here on mtgs at the time said that it was so easy and just herp derp 7 mana, drop fatties. I took it for granted and made some egregious mistakes, including several "punts" against Jund. In the end I only won because 2 Wurmcoil Engines is impossible for Jund to beat in a game. I felt pretty badly, knowing I played terribly, yet won.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
oh yeah for sure. I don't really know for certain why certain decks attract the misconception that they are point-and-click "dumb" decks, because universally it's still Magic, and regardless of deck, games are still complex. Burn is a great example of this, being a surprisingly complex deck to pilot optimally. Having repped a bunch of decks to tournament-ready level, and without incorporating my own sense of ease or difficulty into the equation, the lines, sequencing and plays are complex in every deck, even decks like Tron, when played to a high level. Decks are decks.
although I guess it's probably somehow reassuring to imagine that the deck that crushed my brew at FNM is "super easy" and flatters my opponent's skills. They weren't really outplaying me, they just used a 'noob' deck. That's it, yeah. There's no way someone else could be a more accomplished player than me. /s
in all reality, that's probably a factor in the popular tron-hate that bubbles up in modern every now and again. there'll be other factors, too.
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Modern: G Tron, Vannifar, Jund, Druid/Vizier combo, Humans, Eldrazi Stompy (Serum Powder), Amulet, Grishoalbrand, Breach Titan, Turns, Eternal Command, As Foretold Living End, Elves, Cheerios, RUG Scapeshift
I tried playing UW Control at an FNM over a month ago and it was just awful.
I was losing track of my mana, my lands were sloppily laid all over the place. I attempted to miracle off of Azcanta finding Terminus. I only untapped 1 mana when I was supposed to untap 2 mana from Teferi's +1 ability. Despite this, I was beating a semi pro on a Shadow deck, but I was playing awful on a logistical and technical skill.
I went to time against another player who was better than me while he was on Scales. I ulted Teferi with Jace on board but I wasn't fast enough for the clock.
I haven't been in a tie for over a year, even with some really slow Blue/Lantern decks.
You have to be too fast and too efficient to play something like UW Control. Outside of something like Twin being unbanned, I'm very much off any type of slow blue deck. Going to sell off a lot of blue staples when I get the chance.
Also, question on the side, but do you guys think Humans is here to stay as like a pillar of modern---or was it just a flavor of the year type of deck? It was interesting to read Andrea Mencguchi on Channelfireball just say, "the deck just isn't good anymore".
Eldrazi Tron might make a comeback if Humans go away. I saw a few articles saying it was Humans that caused E.Tron to decline in popularity.
Well, a comeback is quite within the normal state of things for modern. Happens all the time.
As for the reason for eldratron biting the dust for a while? Very likely. Humans is the woooooooorst if you're on the eldrazi deck haha
However, as this is the 'state of modern' it's worth pointing out that humans and spirits are kind of like a yin-yang. They are good against different things.
One of the major reasons for humans picking up steam so quickly when it first broke onto the top tables was because it *destroyed* storm. At that point in time, storm had been maybe the best deck in the format for a few months. Humans also had (and still has) a proactive game against many other decks in the format too. Spirits is good in the 'tribal mirror' and better in other spots (dredge, kci) so it's likely we'll see a seesaw over the next year or two where humans and spirits vie for top dog and we see a tidal effect where they fall in and out of prominence.
The notion that any Modern deck is brain-dead, point-and-click, or bestows nothing but free wins upon its pilots is obviously ridiculous. This game is incredibly complex! Every deck has its foibles and nuances, its hidden tricks and unorthodox lines, its spicy fringe side tech for certain metagames; every deck provides dedicated pilots room for growth while rewarding experience and mastery. People denying this are either lazy thinkers who unwittingly broadcast their lack of understanding about the format; or, they are employing hyperbole and logical fallacies in order to air their particular grievances. Regardless, this type of commentary is inaccurate and unproductive, and I love to see people pushing back against it.
That said, the idea that every Modern deck is just as challenging to pilot optimally as the next one—which is a subtext found within the arguments of some who fight back against the erroneous thinking mentioned above—is also obviously incorrect. GDS has been the focal point of the last few pages and it’s the perfect example of what I mean. It’s just not true that most Modern decks require their pilots to make as many difficult decisions in an average game as a GDS pilot is required to make. The GDS discard decisions alone arguably rival all of the decisions made in an entire game by some of the format’s most linear decks...then when you begin to factor in developing the board vs holding up counters, which cards to delve away, when to go all-in on TBR, and of course the infamously difficult aspect of managing life totals unique to Shadow decks, etc...well, it’s really no contest.
I say this only to remind everyone that nuance and accuracy are necessary to foster the sort of productive discussion that can help make our format better. The radically dismissive mindset that “x deck could be played by a monkey” and the radically subjectivist mindset that “all decks are more or less equally difficult and rewarding of mastery” are two sides of the same coin IMO...and perhaps more importantly, the presence of one type of argument encourages people who disagree to make the other type of argument.
Anyway, this whole subject is a bit of a bugbear for me. Generally, in life as a whole, it’s bizarre to me how much time people spend communicating, but how imprecise and counterproductive that communication tends to be! Truly a strange phenomenon, if you ask me.
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in all reality, that's probably a factor in the popular tron-hate that bubbles up in modern every now and again. there'll be other factors, too.
I have to fight this down personally nearly every day. I'm trying to remain positive though. I had a Hollow One match last night that really tested my ability to keep that positive thinking.
Turn 1 Game 1 - Burning Inquiry screws my hand (leaving me with a 1 lander instead of the 2 I had) and he dumps 2 Hollow Ones. None Game.
Game 2 - No Burning Inquiry, he has to play a mostly fair game, we grind it out and I win.
Turn 1 Game 3 - Burning Inquiry screws my hand AGAIN (removes my path), but he only gets 1 Hollow One. Turn 2, Street Wraith, Faithless, Hollow One, Phoenix. GG.
I am getting to the point where I believe Burning Inquiry is pretty nonsense.
I think that Burning Inquiry is the single most frustrating card to play against in Modern. I'll take Blood Moon, Ensnaring Bridge, or Chalice any day over how rage-inducing Inquiry can be sometimes.
I have never spent so much time staring at tcgplayer going "do I just want to buy another deck?" after buying into grixis shadow. Considering I decided 2019 was the year I did some traveling for the SCG tour.
So I don't know if you guys have seen it but there was a big post on Reddit talking about GP Top8s and possible bannings/unbannings. It's a fact based and unbiased post which got my attention. I will copy and past it here for everyone but also give the link to the original post on Reddit since the formating is a bit better on there and you can upvote if you like it.
With the final Modern GP of 2018 in the books, I decided to categorize the decks that have appeared in GP Top 8s this year, both to see how each archetype and super-archetype has been doing at the highest level of competition, and to speculate about the implications for the B&R list.
I only included individual GPs, because team events have either the confounding factor of being multi-format or the confounding factor of the Unified deck construction rules.
Toronto (Feb 9-11)
Lyon (Feb 16-18)
Phoenix (Mar 16-18)
Hartford (Apr 13-15)
Las Vegas (Jun 14-16)
Barcelona (Jun 29-Jul 1)
São Paulo (Jul 6-8)
Prague (Aug 24-26)
Hong Kong (Sep 14-16)
Stockholm (Sep 14-16)
Atlanta (Nov 2-4)
Portland (Dec 7-9)
Each black star (★) represents a win and each white star (☆) represents a top 8 appearance.
If anyone wants to challenge my super-archetype categories, have at it in the comments.
Blue Control - 15/96
Jeskai Control ☆☆☆☆☆☆☆
UW Miracles ☆☆☆☆☆☆
UB Faeries ☆
4C Scapeshift ☆
The [[Cryptic Command]]/[[Snapcaster Mage]] decks. Despite being the single most represented super-archetype in Top 8s, Blue Control failed to win a GP in 2018--the closest it came was in Stockholm, where Miracles lost to Spirits in the finals. Also of note is that Blue Control's GP Top 8 representation disproportionately comes from events held in Europe and in the summer--all six of the UW Miracles showings, plus two of the Jeskai, are from either GP Barcelona in July or GP Stockholm in September.
White Disruptive Aggro - 13/96
5C Humans ★☆☆☆☆☆
Bant Spirits ★★☆☆☆
Jeskai Tempo ☆
GW Taxes ☆
The [[Aether Vial]] decks. And S. Takao's rogue deck from GP Hong Kong, a low-curve version of Jeskai Geist that gave up [[Cryptic Command]] for [[Figure of Destiny]] and [[Grim Lavamancer]]. These decks play aggressive creatures and then use either permission or preemptive disruption like [[Thalia, Guardian of Thraben]] and [[Meddling Mage]] to prevent the opponent from answering its threats or enacting their own plan. [[Geist of Saint Traft]] decks and Taxes/Hatebears decks had seen some success in the past, but Humans in its current form didn't exist until Ixalan, Spirits wasn't a significant part of the metagame until Core Set 2019, and both decks were a much larger part of the 2018 metagame than Geist or Taxes decks have ever been. Despite not emerging until GP Prague in August, Bant Spirits was one of only two decks to win two GPs.
Pump Aggro - 13/96
Bogles ★☆☆
Affinity ☆☆☆
Elves ☆☆☆
Hardened Scales ★☆
Infect ☆☆
These decks play cheap creatures and turn them into real threats with auras, equipment, combat tricks, +1/+1 counters, and/or lord effects. Once represented almost entirely by Affinity, which was a pillar of Modern from the format's creation, Pump Aggro is now one of the most diverse super-archetypes.
Black Midrange - 12/96
Grixis Shadow ★☆☆
Abzan ☆☆☆
Mardu Pyromancer★☆
Jund ☆☆
Traverse Shadow ☆
BG Midrange ☆
The [[Thoughtseize]]/[[Inquisition of Kozilek]] decks. In 2017, the year of [[Fatal Push]], Black was stronger than it had ever been since [[Deathrite Shaman]] was legal, but this year the super-archetype fell back to earth as the metagame finished adapting to Push. Still, the finals of two of this year's GPs were pseudo-mirrors between two different Black Midrange decks--Mardu versus Abzan in São Paulo, and Grixis Shadow versus GB Midrange in Portland.
Engine Combo - 12/96
Ironworks ★★☆☆☆☆☆☆☆
Gifts Storm ☆☆
Grishoalbrand ☆
The heirs of ProsBloom from the distant age of Mirage Block Constructed, these decks finish the game in one big turn in which they draw or recur a large portion of their library, and consist largely of spells that convert one resource into another. In the 2018 GP metagame, this super-archetype was overwhelmingly represented by a single deck, [[Krark-Clan Ironworks]]. Ironworks was second to Tron in total top 8 showings, the only deck other than Spirits with two wins, and also had two second-place finishes (losing to Dredge in Barcelona and to Spirits in Atlanta).
Big Mana - 12/96
Mono-G Tron ★☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆
Amulet Titan ☆☆
Gb Tron ☆
Decks which employ mana acceleration to start casting 6+ mana haymakers as early as turn 3. Two of the major decks of 2017, Eldrazi Tron and Titanshift, vanished from the 2018 GP metagame leaving this super-archetype represented almost entirely by Mono-Green Tron. If the mono-green and black-splashing versions are combined, Tron was the single most represented deck in Top 8s this year. However, four of its ten showings came in a single event near the beginning of the year: GP Lyon, the "lame duck GP" held after the [[Jace, the Mind Sculptor]] and [[Bloodbraid Elf]] unbans were announced but before they took effect.
Red Aggro - 8/96
Burn ☆☆☆☆☆
RG Eldrazi ★☆☆
Decks that cast creatures and turn them sideways and cast [[Lightning Bolt]], and don't have permission, discard, or recurring creatures. In 2018, RG Eldrazi was the new Big Zoo, while Burn was still the same old Burn.
Graveyard Aggro - 7/96
Dredge ★
Hollow One ☆☆
Bridgevine ☆☆
UR Phoenix ☆☆
The [[Faithless Looting]] decks (although some Black Midrange decks also play the card) These decks use creatures that enter the battlefield from the graveyard both to rapidly build board presence and to attain inevitability against opposing decks that can neither interact with the graveyard nor answer creatures without putting them into the graveyard. This super-archetype has been turbulent all year--[[Hollow One]] was the bogeyman of the format early on, Bridgevine was a fringe deck until Core Set 2019, and [[Arclight Phoenix]] didn't exist until Guilds of Ravnica, a set which also drew renewed attention to Dredge. However, Dredge's one win was from GP Barcelona in July, which was before Guilds of Ravnica was released.
Two-Card Combo - 3/96
Bant Knightfall ☆
Bant Company ☆
Abzan Evolution ☆
The heirs of [[Channel]] [[Fireball]], these decks include combinations of two specific cards which interact to win the game immediately, or at least produce an overwhelming advantage such as infinite life. All Two-Card Combo decks in 2018 GP Top 8s used the combo of [[Devoted Druid]] and [[Vizier of Remedies]], which produces infinite green mana. One deck also added the second combo of [[Knight of the Reliquary]] and [[Retreat to Coralhelm]].
Non-Blue Control - 1/96
Martyr Proc ☆
Decks which play a slow, inevitability-based game without the permission or card draw provided by Blue. Lantern Control, formerly the standout example of this super-archetype in Modern, won the Pro Tour in February but then faded away, leaving only Martyr Proc's surprise appearance in GP Stockholm.
The New Pillars of Modern?
Some commentators have recently taken to calling [[Ancient Stirrings]], [[Faithless Looting]], and [[Aether Vial]] plus [[Noble Hierarch]] the new pillars of Modern. Although that may be a premature declaration considering how much the format has evolved from 2017 to 2018, there is a glimmer of truth to it: since the Jace and BBE unbans came into effect in February, all ten decks that won a Modern GP included either Stirrings, Looting, or Vial and Hierarch (in chronological order: Humans, Ironworks, Ironworks, Dredge, Mardu Pyromancer, Hardened Scales, Tron, Spirits, Spirits, Grixis Shadow)
Just imagine what would happen if you traveled back in time to February 19th and asked a random Modern player to guess three cards, neither lands nor removal spells, that every deck to win a Modern GP between then and the end of 2018 would be playing one of. Maybe they might have gotten one out of three right, if that.
Predicting Bans and Unbans
In 2015, if you only count events after the January bans came into effect, [[Splinter Twin]] decks won 2 out of 7 GPs, took 10 out of 56 Top 8 slots, won the Pro Tour and put another copy in the PT Top 8, and we all know what happened to Twin. In 2017, [[Death's Shadow]] decks won 2 out of 8 GPs, took 8 out of 64 Top 8 slots, put one copy in the PT top 8, and contrary to many predictions the deck escaped a ban. Apparently the threshold for banworthiness based on GP dominance lies somewhere above 12% and below 18%.
No deck this year performed as well as 2017 Death's Shadow, let alone 2015 Splinter Twin. The most successful decks, Ironworks and Tron, each took about 10% of GP top 8 slots throughout the year, and out of 12 GPs no more than 2 were won by any single deck. Also, Ironworks and Tron both had their greatest success in the first half of the year and then leveled off, in a similar trajectory to last year's Death's Shadow. It seems unlikely that any cards are in danger of being banned on the grounds of metagame dominance.
That leaves the possibility of bans on other grounds, such as frequency of turn 3 kills. Without knowledge either of R&D's exact criteria for banning or of how often various decks are actually winning before turn 4, it is difficult to make any educated predictions (when Jeff Hoogland scoops as soon as he sees his opponent drop [[Urza's Mine]], does it count as a turn 1 kill?)
Regarding unbans, players hoping for a [[Stoneforge Mystic]] unban in the near future are likely to be disappointed. Interactive decks with White (both Disruptive Aggro and Blue Control) are the decks that would benefit from SFM, and those are already among the most successful decks in Modern. Earlier in the year one might have argued that Humans, then the most successful White deck, would be unable to adopt SFM due to its mana base, but Humans is now being outperformed by Bant Spirits, a deck which would have no trouble casting SFM or activating it.
On the other hand, [[Green Sun's Zenith]], which has also been speculated as a possible unban target, would most likely be adopted by decks that are not currently in a strong position, such as [[Devoted Druid]] combo decks, [[Primeval Titan]] Big Mana decks (which are currently overshadowed by Tron), or aggro decks other than Humans and Spirits (both of which play no green creatures in the main deck except [[Noble Hierarch]])
Given that R&D prefers to help struggling archetypes and colors with unbans rather than give new tools to already successful decks, GSZ is more likely to be unbanned than SFM.
I dont want to touch on a few of the things put forward here, but its fundamentally true that the pillars of the format are Stirrings, Vial, and to a far lesser degree Looting (at least pre Phoenix/2018). I dont know how it could be argued otherwise.
I predict KCI, Tron, Spirits/Humans, and the Looting decks, will continue to represent the majority of GP Top 8's in 2019.
I think the logic around SFM not coming off is questionable at best, I may even play it in my current project, but...its whatever.
I still grossly disagree with their opinions on SFM, as neither "blue control" or the "disruptive aggro" decks that exist could feasibly slot in SFM + equipment without totally restructuring the deck, how it functions, and what it's doing.
Interesting article, but I still believe that Stoneforge Mystic doesn't do all that much. I would hope that it would transform UW "Control" to a different deck. I'm not sure if people believe that Stoneforge Mystic AND Teferi, Hero of Dominaria will be played in the same deck optimally? White Aggro is and always has been trash. I'm sorry to say it because I am horribly biased, but honestly the only times I've lost to White Aggro in Modern (no, I don't count Humans as this), it has been with 4 Lightning Bolt and some number of Red burn spells in my deck that I failed to draw. If White Aggro was the only deck that people played, I wouldn't be surprised to see my Modern win rate to be over 90%.
Stoneforge Mystic in Spirits? Interesting. I think to be quite honest, someone can always think up or imagine a scenario when a card could be broken. Imagine a world where many people played GBx and Eldrazi - do you think Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle would survive a ban in that world? Nope. The color White does not have to see 0 play for Stoneforge Mystic to see an unban. At least I would hope not...
My opinion on SfM and Green Sun's Zenith is not a mystery. Obviously I feel that both should be unbanned. Stoneforge Mystic technically is more of a risk only if the format is Midrange vs. Control. I don't know what world you're in if you believe this to be the case. And if it is, please let me move to your area, stay in your home, and grind a little bit there (if there are solid monetary prizes). I will give you 50% if the prizes are high enough.
Green Sun's Zenith has no chance of being busted, but it does homogenize card play in Green a bit. People are going to decide which of Eldritch Evolution, Collected Company, Lead the Stampede, Chord of Calling, and Green Sun's Zenith will be played and some will probably stop seeing play. Green Sun's Zenith is a powerful option, but I don't think lowering the choices of THAT many choices is that bad a thing. Just my 2 cents.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
The thing these kinds of statements do, is just drive me nuts. 'SFM would go in UWx Control/Humans/Spirits'. Have people actually looked at these lists? Do they know how they function? Blows my mind that people continue to make statements like that.
Green Sun's Zenith has no chance of being busted, but it does homogenize card play in Green a bit. People are going to decide which of Eldritch Evolution, Collected Company, Lead the Stampede, Chord of Calling, and Green Sun's Zenith will be played and some will probably stop seeing play. Green Sun's Zenith is a powerful option, but I don't think lowering the choices of THAT many choices is that bad a thing. Just my 2 cents.
I agree that GSZ might homogenize green decks, but moreover, I also think it has a chance of being busted in Elves. Given that green decks appear to have pretty broad representation right now, I don't see Wizards wanting to risk that with an uncertain unban. The last thing they want is homogeneity in Modern.
there more that I think of it, the more I feel that SFM would be fine, the format has so many answers to it and the equipment it finds. Then there are decks that just don't care about it
I think that Previous rankings of the pillars of the format in both cards and decks are pretty correct, stirrings, looting and vial have all been huge parts of the format this year
there more that I think of it, the more I feel that SFM would be fine, the format has so many answers to it and the equipment it finds. Then there are decks that just don't care about it
I think that Previous rankings of the pillars of the format in both cards and decks are pretty correct, stirrings, looting and vial have all been huge parts of the format this year
I encourage you and others to replace Vial with Hierarch in that assessment. Hierarch is a staple of far more decks, notably Infect and the Company decks. There are decks that play Hierarch and no Vial that remain GP contenders. There are no decks that play Vial without Hiearch in the same category. The closest is D&T/E&T, but it's not in the same category as Infect or the Company decks.
there more that I think of it, the more I feel that SFM would be fine, the format has so many answers to it and the equipment it finds. Then there are decks that just don't care about it
I think that Previous rankings of the pillars of the format in both cards and decks are pretty correct, stirrings, looting and vial have all been huge parts of the format this year
I encourage you and others to replace Vial with Hierarch in that assessment. Hierarch is a staple of far more decks, notably Infect and the Company decks. There are decks that play Hierarch and no Vial that remain GP contenders. There are no decks that play Vial without Hiearch in the same category. The closest is D&T/E&T, but it's not in the same category as Infect or the Company decks.
Probably fair, but Hierarch is simply the best at what it does. Vial is unique in what it does.
there more that I think of it, the more I feel that SFM would be fine, the format has so many answers to it and the equipment it finds. Then there are decks that just don't care about it
I think that Previous rankings of the pillars of the format in both cards and decks are pretty correct, stirrings, looting and vial have all been huge parts of the format this year
I encourage you and others to replace Vial with Hierarch in that assessment. Hierarch is a staple of far more decks, notably Infect and the Company decks. There are decks that play Hierarch and no Vial that remain GP contenders. There are no decks that play Vial without Hiearch in the same category. The closest is D&T/E&T, but it's not in the same category as Infect or the Company decks.
that's true, Noble covers a lot more and fills a role that cant be replaced
A quick history and I just realized we have seen unbans in four of the past five years, always in the first four months. Wild Nacatl, Bitterblossom, then GGT, then sword and AV, then BBE and Jace with only 2017 seeing zero new cards (meanwhile like ten cards were banned in standard between start of 2017 and 2018, so let's say WOTC was distracted). So WOTC definitely isn't stingy about unbans. Three of these four cases saw two cards unbanned, but not cards that would clearly fit a single archetype. If there's an unban, I'll bet two options:
Preordain
GSZ
OR
SFM by itself
My reasons are as follows:
1. SFM will be attempted in all sorts of decks, so in an attempt to avoid boosting any decks with two new cards, I think if it is unbanned it will be done entirely alone. If, for instance, SFM and preordain arrived and we saw some Stoneblade-style deck dominate, it would be tough to know which card caused the problem. In order to avoid a "BBE died for DRS sins" reaction, it would make sense to allow SFM to be by itself.
2. Preordain and GSZ would almost certainly not work together. The former helps control, midrange, and technically combo but I'll get to that. The latter helps green based midrange, toolbox, and elves dicks. The only blue combo deck that is currently seeing a decent amount of play is storm, which even with preordain is still vulnerable to creature removal as well as GY hate.
Graveyard Aggro - 7/104
Dredge ☆☆☆
Hollow One ☆☆
UR Phoenix ★
Mono-R Phoenix ☆
Two-Card Combo - 2/104
Kiki Moon ☆☆
Non-Blue Control - 2/104
GW Value Company ☆
Skred Red ☆
What's interesting is that while it does look different from the GPs Blue Control still managed to snatch the top spot here too. It's noteworthy to me because Brad Nelson recently wrote in his articles that people actually came up to him and asked him why he plays Jeskai as if it would be a terrible deck. Yet he has a 71% win rate with it over five different events and so he is baffled by the fact that there is a group of people out there who think that's really true.
I wish I had premium as Sam Black I believe wrote an article on why the SCG meta is not the same, but the biggest thing to look at for me?
There is a huge link between the amount of Humans, and UWR as I mentioned in the first 2 quarters of the year. UWR has several people who grind it regardless at SCG, and are masters of the deck, in a meta that has TONS of Creature decks, compared to GPs, which (especially if we look at North American meta) have more Stirrings.
How many of those Top 8's for Storm are 1 of 2 people as well, or both of the Storm Bros?
I dont know, SCG is soo inbred, running off the echo chamber of their articles, and the people who will play whatever they want, regardless of if its the 'best deck'.
Which is fine. I stomped Affinity and JDS into the ground today with my Esper brew, but I'm not going to pretend I would play it for money.
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UW Spirits
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...I do when the only decks listed as difficult with a high ceiling of difficulty was KCI and Amulet : /
None of these decks are rocket science, though.
I also agree with Wraith, in that scenario you definitely play the death shadow and not worry about a 4 mana spell from Ponza.
As a teacher, it took me a while to properly get that. No matter how difficult you find something, someone else will find it trivial. And the reverse is also true. The most basic, fundamental easy task can seem impossible to others.
Arguing over what you personally feel is more difficult or less difficult is going to be a cyclical, pointless exercise. It doesn't matter how hard you try to back yourself up or 'logic' your arguments, it doesn't work. Everyone's different. What's easy for you won't necessarily be easy for others etc.
True. I'm sorry I brought it up.
I for one should definitely know this. I can barely play Burn, but I know how to play Combo decks pretty well. Midrange doesn't feel tough to me, but I am probably overestimating myself and have just gotten lucky the few times I've played it. Control does feel tough, but only because I haven't played it much in the past 8 years. I feel that I could get it back if I wanted (since I did spend a lot of time playing it in the past), but just haven't put in the reps.
*Funny story I have from a while back when Tron was RG. I tried Tron because I heard that people here on mtgs at the time said that it was so easy and just herp derp 7 mana, drop fatties. I took it for granted and made some egregious mistakes, including several "punts" against Jund. In the end I only won because 2 Wurmcoil Engines is impossible for Jund to beat in a game. I felt pretty badly, knowing I played terribly, yet won.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)oh yeah for sure. I don't really know for certain why certain decks attract the misconception that they are point-and-click "dumb" decks, because universally it's still Magic, and regardless of deck, games are still complex. Burn is a great example of this, being a surprisingly complex deck to pilot optimally. Having repped a bunch of decks to tournament-ready level, and without incorporating my own sense of ease or difficulty into the equation, the lines, sequencing and plays are complex in every deck, even decks like Tron, when played to a high level. Decks are decks.
although I guess it's probably somehow reassuring to imagine that the deck that crushed my brew at FNM is "super easy" and flatters my opponent's skills. They weren't really outplaying me, they just used a 'noob' deck. That's it, yeah. There's no way someone else could be a more accomplished player than me. /s
in all reality, that's probably a factor in the popular tron-hate that bubbles up in modern every now and again. there'll be other factors, too.
I was losing track of my mana, my lands were sloppily laid all over the place. I attempted to miracle off of Azcanta finding Terminus. I only untapped 1 mana when I was supposed to untap 2 mana from Teferi's +1 ability. Despite this, I was beating a semi pro on a Shadow deck, but I was playing awful on a logistical and technical skill.
I went to time against another player who was better than me while he was on Scales. I ulted Teferi with Jace on board but I wasn't fast enough for the clock.
I haven't been in a tie for over a year, even with some really slow Blue/Lantern decks.
You have to be too fast and too efficient to play something like UW Control. Outside of something like Twin being unbanned, I'm very much off any type of slow blue deck. Going to sell off a lot of blue staples when I get the chance.
Also, question on the side, but do you guys think Humans is here to stay as like a pillar of modern---or was it just a flavor of the year type of deck? It was interesting to read Andrea Mencguchi on Channelfireball just say, "the deck just isn't good anymore".
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Want to play a UW control deck in modern, but don't have jace or snaps?
Please come visit us at the Emeria Titan control thread
Well, a comeback is quite within the normal state of things for modern. Happens all the time.
As for the reason for eldratron biting the dust for a while? Very likely. Humans is the woooooooorst if you're on the eldrazi deck haha
However, as this is the 'state of modern' it's worth pointing out that humans and spirits are kind of like a yin-yang. They are good against different things.
One of the major reasons for humans picking up steam so quickly when it first broke onto the top tables was because it *destroyed* storm. At that point in time, storm had been maybe the best deck in the format for a few months. Humans also had (and still has) a proactive game against many other decks in the format too. Spirits is good in the 'tribal mirror' and better in other spots (dredge, kci) so it's likely we'll see a seesaw over the next year or two where humans and spirits vie for top dog and we see a tidal effect where they fall in and out of prominence.
That said, the idea that every Modern deck is just as challenging to pilot optimally as the next one—which is a subtext found within the arguments of some who fight back against the erroneous thinking mentioned above—is also obviously incorrect. GDS has been the focal point of the last few pages and it’s the perfect example of what I mean. It’s just not true that most Modern decks require their pilots to make as many difficult decisions in an average game as a GDS pilot is required to make. The GDS discard decisions alone arguably rival all of the decisions made in an entire game by some of the format’s most linear decks...then when you begin to factor in developing the board vs holding up counters, which cards to delve away, when to go all-in on TBR, and of course the infamously difficult aspect of managing life totals unique to Shadow decks, etc...well, it’s really no contest.
I say this only to remind everyone that nuance and accuracy are necessary to foster the sort of productive discussion that can help make our format better. The radically dismissive mindset that “x deck could be played by a monkey” and the radically subjectivist mindset that “all decks are more or less equally difficult and rewarding of mastery” are two sides of the same coin IMO...and perhaps more importantly, the presence of one type of argument encourages people who disagree to make the other type of argument.
Anyway, this whole subject is a bit of a bugbear for me. Generally, in life as a whole, it’s bizarre to me how much time people spend communicating, but how imprecise and counterproductive that communication tends to be! Truly a strange phenomenon, if you ask me.
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I have to fight this down personally nearly every day. I'm trying to remain positive though. I had a Hollow One match last night that really tested my ability to keep that positive thinking.
Turn 1 Game 1 - Burning Inquiry screws my hand (leaving me with a 1 lander instead of the 2 I had) and he dumps 2 Hollow Ones. None Game.
Game 2 - No Burning Inquiry, he has to play a mostly fair game, we grind it out and I win.
Turn 1 Game 3 - Burning Inquiry screws my hand AGAIN (removes my path), but he only gets 1 Hollow One. Turn 2, Street Wraith, Faithless, Hollow One, Phoenix. GG.
I am getting to the point where I believe Burning Inquiry is pretty nonsense.
Spirits
https://www.reddit.com/r/ModernMagic/comments/a64wnc/looking_back_at_2018_gp_top_8s_plus_br_speculation/
With the final Modern GP of 2018 in the books, I decided to categorize the decks that have appeared in GP Top 8s this year, both to see how each archetype and super-archetype has been doing at the highest level of competition, and to speculate about the implications for the B&R list.
I only included individual GPs, because team events have either the confounding factor of being multi-format or the confounding factor of the Unified deck construction rules.
Toronto (Feb 9-11)
Lyon (Feb 16-18)
Phoenix (Mar 16-18)
Hartford (Apr 13-15)
Las Vegas (Jun 14-16)
Barcelona (Jun 29-Jul 1)
São Paulo (Jul 6-8)
Prague (Aug 24-26)
Hong Kong (Sep 14-16)
Stockholm (Sep 14-16)
Atlanta (Nov 2-4)
Portland (Dec 7-9)
Each black star (★) represents a win and each white star (☆) represents a top 8 appearance.
If anyone wants to challenge my super-archetype categories, have at it in the comments.
Blue Control - 15/96
Jeskai Control ☆☆☆☆☆☆☆
UW Miracles ☆☆☆☆☆☆
UB Faeries ☆
4C Scapeshift ☆
The [[Cryptic Command]]/[[Snapcaster Mage]] decks. Despite being the single most represented super-archetype in Top 8s, Blue Control failed to win a GP in 2018--the closest it came was in Stockholm, where Miracles lost to Spirits in the finals. Also of note is that Blue Control's GP Top 8 representation disproportionately comes from events held in Europe and in the summer--all six of the UW Miracles showings, plus two of the Jeskai, are from either GP Barcelona in July or GP Stockholm in September.
White Disruptive Aggro - 13/96
5C Humans ★☆☆☆☆☆
Bant Spirits ★★☆☆☆
Jeskai Tempo ☆
GW Taxes ☆
The [[Aether Vial]] decks. And S. Takao's rogue deck from GP Hong Kong, a low-curve version of Jeskai Geist that gave up [[Cryptic Command]] for [[Figure of Destiny]] and [[Grim Lavamancer]]. These decks play aggressive creatures and then use either permission or preemptive disruption like [[Thalia, Guardian of Thraben]] and [[Meddling Mage]] to prevent the opponent from answering its threats or enacting their own plan. [[Geist of Saint Traft]] decks and Taxes/Hatebears decks had seen some success in the past, but Humans in its current form didn't exist until Ixalan, Spirits wasn't a significant part of the metagame until Core Set 2019, and both decks were a much larger part of the 2018 metagame than Geist or Taxes decks have ever been. Despite not emerging until GP Prague in August, Bant Spirits was one of only two decks to win two GPs.
Pump Aggro - 13/96
Bogles ★☆☆
Affinity ☆☆☆
Elves ☆☆☆
Hardened Scales ★☆
Infect ☆☆
These decks play cheap creatures and turn them into real threats with auras, equipment, combat tricks, +1/+1 counters, and/or lord effects. Once represented almost entirely by Affinity, which was a pillar of Modern from the format's creation, Pump Aggro is now one of the most diverse super-archetypes.
Black Midrange - 12/96
Grixis Shadow ★☆☆
Abzan ☆☆☆
Mardu Pyromancer★☆
Jund ☆☆
Traverse Shadow ☆
BG Midrange ☆
The [[Thoughtseize]]/[[Inquisition of Kozilek]] decks. In 2017, the year of [[Fatal Push]], Black was stronger than it had ever been since [[Deathrite Shaman]] was legal, but this year the super-archetype fell back to earth as the metagame finished adapting to Push. Still, the finals of two of this year's GPs were pseudo-mirrors between two different Black Midrange decks--Mardu versus Abzan in São Paulo, and Grixis Shadow versus GB Midrange in Portland.
Engine Combo - 12/96
Ironworks ★★☆☆☆☆☆☆☆
Gifts Storm ☆☆
Grishoalbrand ☆
The heirs of ProsBloom from the distant age of Mirage Block Constructed, these decks finish the game in one big turn in which they draw or recur a large portion of their library, and consist largely of spells that convert one resource into another. In the 2018 GP metagame, this super-archetype was overwhelmingly represented by a single deck, [[Krark-Clan Ironworks]]. Ironworks was second to Tron in total top 8 showings, the only deck other than Spirits with two wins, and also had two second-place finishes (losing to Dredge in Barcelona and to Spirits in Atlanta).
Big Mana - 12/96
Mono-G Tron ★☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆
Amulet Titan ☆☆
Gb Tron ☆
Decks which employ mana acceleration to start casting 6+ mana haymakers as early as turn 3. Two of the major decks of 2017, Eldrazi Tron and Titanshift, vanished from the 2018 GP metagame leaving this super-archetype represented almost entirely by Mono-Green Tron. If the mono-green and black-splashing versions are combined, Tron was the single most represented deck in Top 8s this year. However, four of its ten showings came in a single event near the beginning of the year: GP Lyon, the "lame duck GP" held after the [[Jace, the Mind Sculptor]] and [[Bloodbraid Elf]] unbans were announced but before they took effect.
Red Aggro - 8/96
Burn ☆☆☆☆☆
RG Eldrazi ★☆☆
Decks that cast creatures and turn them sideways and cast [[Lightning Bolt]], and don't have permission, discard, or recurring creatures. In 2018, RG Eldrazi was the new Big Zoo, while Burn was still the same old Burn.
Graveyard Aggro - 7/96
Dredge ★
Hollow One ☆☆
Bridgevine ☆☆
UR Phoenix ☆☆
The [[Faithless Looting]] decks (although some Black Midrange decks also play the card) These decks use creatures that enter the battlefield from the graveyard both to rapidly build board presence and to attain inevitability against opposing decks that can neither interact with the graveyard nor answer creatures without putting them into the graveyard. This super-archetype has been turbulent all year--[[Hollow One]] was the bogeyman of the format early on, Bridgevine was a fringe deck until Core Set 2019, and [[Arclight Phoenix]] didn't exist until Guilds of Ravnica, a set which also drew renewed attention to Dredge. However, Dredge's one win was from GP Barcelona in July, which was before Guilds of Ravnica was released.
Two-Card Combo - 3/96
Bant Knightfall ☆
Bant Company ☆
Abzan Evolution ☆
The heirs of [[Channel]] [[Fireball]], these decks include combinations of two specific cards which interact to win the game immediately, or at least produce an overwhelming advantage such as infinite life. All Two-Card Combo decks in 2018 GP Top 8s used the combo of [[Devoted Druid]] and [[Vizier of Remedies]], which produces infinite green mana. One deck also added the second combo of [[Knight of the Reliquary]] and [[Retreat to Coralhelm]].
Non-Blue Control - 1/96
Martyr Proc ☆
Decks which play a slow, inevitability-based game without the permission or card draw provided by Blue. Lantern Control, formerly the standout example of this super-archetype in Modern, won the Pro Tour in February but then faded away, leaving only Martyr Proc's surprise appearance in GP Stockholm.
The New Pillars of Modern?
Some commentators have recently taken to calling [[Ancient Stirrings]], [[Faithless Looting]], and [[Aether Vial]] plus [[Noble Hierarch]] the new pillars of Modern. Although that may be a premature declaration considering how much the format has evolved from 2017 to 2018, there is a glimmer of truth to it: since the Jace and BBE unbans came into effect in February, all ten decks that won a Modern GP included either Stirrings, Looting, or Vial and Hierarch (in chronological order: Humans, Ironworks, Ironworks, Dredge, Mardu Pyromancer, Hardened Scales, Tron, Spirits, Spirits, Grixis Shadow)
Just imagine what would happen if you traveled back in time to February 19th and asked a random Modern player to guess three cards, neither lands nor removal spells, that every deck to win a Modern GP between then and the end of 2018 would be playing one of. Maybe they might have gotten one out of three right, if that.
Predicting Bans and Unbans
In 2015, if you only count events after the January bans came into effect, [[Splinter Twin]] decks won 2 out of 7 GPs, took 10 out of 56 Top 8 slots, won the Pro Tour and put another copy in the PT Top 8, and we all know what happened to Twin. In 2017, [[Death's Shadow]] decks won 2 out of 8 GPs, took 8 out of 64 Top 8 slots, put one copy in the PT top 8, and contrary to many predictions the deck escaped a ban. Apparently the threshold for banworthiness based on GP dominance lies somewhere above 12% and below 18%.
No deck this year performed as well as 2017 Death's Shadow, let alone 2015 Splinter Twin. The most successful decks, Ironworks and Tron, each took about 10% of GP top 8 slots throughout the year, and out of 12 GPs no more than 2 were won by any single deck. Also, Ironworks and Tron both had their greatest success in the first half of the year and then leveled off, in a similar trajectory to last year's Death's Shadow. It seems unlikely that any cards are in danger of being banned on the grounds of metagame dominance.
That leaves the possibility of bans on other grounds, such as frequency of turn 3 kills. Without knowledge either of R&D's exact criteria for banning or of how often various decks are actually winning before turn 4, it is difficult to make any educated predictions (when Jeff Hoogland scoops as soon as he sees his opponent drop [[Urza's Mine]], does it count as a turn 1 kill?)
Regarding unbans, players hoping for a [[Stoneforge Mystic]] unban in the near future are likely to be disappointed. Interactive decks with White (both Disruptive Aggro and Blue Control) are the decks that would benefit from SFM, and those are already among the most successful decks in Modern. Earlier in the year one might have argued that Humans, then the most successful White deck, would be unable to adopt SFM due to its mana base, but Humans is now being outperformed by Bant Spirits, a deck which would have no trouble casting SFM or activating it.
On the other hand, [[Green Sun's Zenith]], which has also been speculated as a possible unban target, would most likely be adopted by decks that are not currently in a strong position, such as [[Devoted Druid]] combo decks, [[Primeval Titan]] Big Mana decks (which are currently overshadowed by Tron), or aggro decks other than Humans and Spirits (both of which play no green creatures in the main deck except [[Noble Hierarch]])
Given that R&D prefers to help struggling archetypes and colors with unbans rather than give new tools to already successful decks, GSZ is more likely to be unbanned than SFM.
I predict KCI, Tron, Spirits/Humans, and the Looting decks, will continue to represent the majority of GP Top 8's in 2019.
I think the logic around SFM not coming off is questionable at best, I may even play it in my current project, but...its whatever.
Spirits
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Stoneforge Mystic in Spirits? Interesting. I think to be quite honest, someone can always think up or imagine a scenario when a card could be broken. Imagine a world where many people played GBx and Eldrazi - do you think Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle would survive a ban in that world? Nope. The color White does not have to see 0 play for Stoneforge Mystic to see an unban. At least I would hope not...
My opinion on SfM and Green Sun's Zenith is not a mystery. Obviously I feel that both should be unbanned. Stoneforge Mystic technically is more of a risk only if the format is Midrange vs. Control. I don't know what world you're in if you believe this to be the case. And if it is, please let me move to your area, stay in your home, and grind a little bit there (if there are solid monetary prizes). I will give you 50% if the prizes are high enough.
Green Sun's Zenith has no chance of being busted, but it does homogenize card play in Green a bit. People are going to decide which of Eldritch Evolution, Collected Company, Lead the Stampede, Chord of Calling, and Green Sun's Zenith will be played and some will probably stop seeing play. Green Sun's Zenith is a powerful option, but I don't think lowering the choices of THAT many choices is that bad a thing. Just my 2 cents.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Spirits
I agree that GSZ might homogenize green decks, but moreover, I also think it has a chance of being busted in Elves. Given that green decks appear to have pretty broad representation right now, I don't see Wizards wanting to risk that with an uncertain unban. The last thing they want is homogeneity in Modern.
I think that Previous rankings of the pillars of the format in both cards and decks are pretty correct, stirrings, looting and vial have all been huge parts of the format this year
I encourage you and others to replace Vial with Hierarch in that assessment. Hierarch is a staple of far more decks, notably Infect and the Company decks. There are decks that play Hierarch and no Vial that remain GP contenders. There are no decks that play Vial without Hiearch in the same category. The closest is D&T/E&T, but it's not in the same category as Infect or the Company decks.
Probably fair, but Hierarch is simply the best at what it does. Vial is unique in what it does.
Spirits
that's true, Noble covers a lot more and fills a role that cant be replaced
Preordain
GSZ
OR
SFM by itself
My reasons are as follows:
1. SFM will be attempted in all sorts of decks, so in an attempt to avoid boosting any decks with two new cards, I think if it is unbanned it will be done entirely alone. If, for instance, SFM and preordain arrived and we saw some Stoneblade-style deck dominate, it would be tough to know which card caused the problem. In order to avoid a "BBE died for DRS sins" reaction, it would make sense to allow SFM to be by itself.
2. Preordain and GSZ would almost certainly not work together. The former helps control, midrange, and technically combo but I'll get to that. The latter helps green based midrange, toolbox, and elves dicks. The only blue combo deck that is currently seeing a decent amount of play is storm, which even with preordain is still vulnerable to creature removal as well as GY hate.
Blue Control - 19/104
Jeskai Control ★☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆
UW Miracles ☆☆☆☆
UW Spreading Seas ☆☆☆
4C Scapeshift ☆
Disruptive Aggro - 18/104
Humans ★☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆
UR Wizards ☆☆
UW Spirits ★
Bant Spirits ☆
Eldrazi & Taxes ☆
Big Mana - 16/104
Mono-G Tron ☆☆☆☆☆
Eldrazi Tron ☆☆☆☆☆
Amulet Titan ★☆
Titanshift ☆☆
RG Ponza ★
Gb Tron ☆
Black Midrange - 13/104
Jund ★☆☆☆☆☆☆
Grixis Shadow ★☆☆☆
Traverse Shadow ★
Mardu Pyromancer ★
Engine Combo - 10/104
Gifts Storm ☆☆☆☆☆☆☆
Ironworks ☆☆
Living End ★
Pump Aggro - 9/104
Infect ★☆☆
Affinity ☆☆☆
Hardened Scales ☆
Bogles ☆
Elves ☆
Red Aggro - 8/104
Burn ☆☆☆☆☆☆☆
RG Eldrazi ★
Graveyard Aggro - 7/104
Dredge ☆☆☆
Hollow One ☆☆
UR Phoenix ★
Mono-R Phoenix ☆
Two-Card Combo - 2/104
Kiki Moon ☆☆
Non-Blue Control - 2/104
GW Value Company ☆
Skred Red ☆
What's interesting is that while it does look different from the GPs Blue Control still managed to snatch the top spot here too. It's noteworthy to me because Brad Nelson recently wrote in his articles that people actually came up to him and asked him why he plays Jeskai as if it would be a terrible deck. Yet he has a 71% win rate with it over five different events and so he is baffled by the fact that there is a group of people out there who think that's really true.
There is a huge link between the amount of Humans, and UWR as I mentioned in the first 2 quarters of the year. UWR has several people who grind it regardless at SCG, and are masters of the deck, in a meta that has TONS of Creature decks, compared to GPs, which (especially if we look at North American meta) have more Stirrings.
How many of those Top 8's for Storm are 1 of 2 people as well, or both of the Storm Bros?
I dont know, SCG is soo inbred, running off the echo chamber of their articles, and the people who will play whatever they want, regardless of if its the 'best deck'.
Which is fine. I stomped Affinity and JDS into the ground today with my Esper brew, but I'm not going to pretend I would play it for money.
Spirits