[KCI is] one of those decks that I just don't want to play anymore cause it's not really fun for either player. You either win uncontested, or they play something like three stonys and you lose."
For 6 months I'm buying modern staples - I already have a decent collection and I wanted to play some competetive magic - someday - but now Wizards really confuses and scares me...
I also read about standard plus - a new extended format.
Now I don't know if I should go on with my modern collection or leave (a sinking ship?) it alone and start something else - like full time modern.
Modern is fine. AF just Tweeted that it's an important part of their plans going forward. MTGO might be an economic mess, but Modern remains the most popular and played format by all the metrics I've seen.
Re: KCI
Unlike most of the Modern alarm, this weekend is rapidly proving that KCI alarm is justified. If we get 2+ copies in the GP Portland T8, I'm switching to red flag ban mode. 1 copy would be an orange flag and 0 would diminish my worries until at least GP Oakland. Even then, however, the writing is mostly on the wall for KCI as far as I'm concerned. It's the best deck in Modern. If you aren't playing it you are willfully playing a worse deck OR you know your local metagame enough to know it's too hated.
I would rather see another powerful discard spell printed than a preordain unbanning.
Powerful discard help the fair Bx midrange decks, whereas powerful cantrips just help the linear decks more.
The problem, of course, is getting it through standard first. But if it's cleverly designed, I think it can be done. Collective Brutality was an excellent example of this - a card that's much stronger in modern than standard.
EDIT: even something like a non-random Hymn to Tourach would be very welcome in the format. It would greatly help attrition strategies, especially 8-rack
I think they need to come back to Revolt. it's fine in Standard if they design with it mostly being creatures dying to enable it, but it's SO good in Modern. UU Revlt Counterspell that's a Mana Leak without it. Duress with a 2 life loss that turns into Thoughtseize, Shock that turns into Bolt. That mechanic was the best in a really long time, and it still has a lot of room
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For 6 months I'm buying modern staples - I already have a decent collection and I wanted to play some competetive magic - someday - but now Wizards really confuses and scares me...
I also read about standard plus - a new extended format.
Now I don't know if I should go on with my modern collection or leave (a sinking ship?) it alone and start something else - like full time modern.
Modern is fine. AF just Tweeted that it's an important part of their plans going forward. MTGO might be an economic mess, but Modern remains the most popular and played format by all the metrics I've seen.
Re: KCI
Unlike most of the Modern alarm, this weekend is rapidly proving that KCI alarm is justified. If we get 2+ copies in the GP Portland T8, I'm switching to red flag ban mode. 1 copy would be an orange flag and 0 would diminish my worries until at least GP Oakland. Even then, however, the writing is mostly on the wall for KCI as far as I'm concerned. It's the best deck in Modern. If you aren't playing it you are willfully playing a worse deck OR you know your local metagame enough to know it's too hated.
I think the conversation is beginning to loop back on itself. Any guess why we might see a resurgence of KCI after its most recent hiatus? Decks like Izzet/Monored Phoenix and Dredge have resulted in a meta that chased off the (at least more) midrange and control decks that were best equipped to deal with it. You can worry about the (potential) resurgence of KCI, but it's a symptom not the cause.
Just to be clear, I don't think Dredge or Phoenix are the problem either. The issue is a rock/paper/scissor meta where all three options are linear aggro/combo decks. Hopefully the meta shakes itself clear of this.
For 6 months I'm buying modern staples - I already have a decent collection and I wanted to play some competetive magic - someday - but now Wizards really confuses and scares me...
I also read about standard plus - a new extended format.
Now I don't know if I should go on with my modern collection or leave (a sinking ship?) it alone and start something else - like full time modern.
Modern is fine. AF just Tweeted that it's an important part of their plans going forward. MTGO might be an economic mess, but Modern remains the most popular and played format by all the metrics I've seen.
Re: KCI
Unlike most of the Modern alarm, this weekend is rapidly proving that KCI alarm is justified. If we get 2+ copies in the GP Portland T8, I'm switching to red flag ban mode. 1 copy would be an orange flag and 0 would diminish my worries until at least GP Oakland. Even then, however, the writing is mostly on the wall for KCI as far as I'm concerned. It's the best deck in Modern. If you aren't playing it you are willfully playing a worse deck OR you know your local metagame enough to know it's too hated.
I think the conversation is beginning to loop back on itself. Any guess why we might see a resurgence of KCI after its most recent hiatus? Decks like Izzet/Monored Phoenix and Dredge have resulted in a meta that chased off the (at least more) midrange and control decks that were best equipped to deal with it. You can worry about the (potential) resurgence of KCI, but it's a symptom not the cause.
Just to be clear, I don't think Dredge or Phoenix are the problem either. The issue is a rock/paper/scissor meta where all three options are linear aggro/combo decks. Hopefully the meta shakes itself clear of this.
KCI has been the best deck for a while. It just keeps cementing that position. All the other Modern-related alarms this last year have not panned out over any appreciable length of time. Heck, that's been true for the past 2 years. But the KCI issue continues to return. It continues to disproportionately perform and continues to have the highest MWP of any Modern deck.
Midrange and control are format pillars and super-archetypes we need to be having at a healthy format.
Those going extinct(especially midrange) is super alarming and should easily be a red flag.
I agree. Even though I HATE Midrange and actually very rarely play Control, I see the importance of them being represented. It is important to the pendulum of decks that are on top and their sway from getting good matchups to getting bad matchups, then back again. I'm not sure if Human (Aggro) is enough.
I have seen a bit of a resurgence in straight GB Rock played over Jund. Does anyone know why this is the case? I guess a 4 of Scavenging Ooze is needed for this type of meta?
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Midrange and control are format pillars and super-archetypes we need to be having at a healthy format.
Those going extinct(especially midrange) is super alarming and should easily be a red flag.
I agree. Even though I HATE Midrange and actually very rarely play Control, I see the importance of them being represented. It is important to the pendulum of decks that are on top and their sway from getting good matchups to getting bad matchups, then back again. I'm not sure if Human (Aggro) is enough.
I have seen a bit of a resurgence in straight GB Rock played over Jund. Does anyone know why this is the case? I guess a 4 of Scavenging Ooze is needed for this type of meta?
GB Rock is able to play 4 field of ruin, while Jund cannot, dramatically improving the Tron matchup
Speaking of which, Ancient Stirrings ban would weaken Tron thus making midrange/control better.
With a Stirrings ban, would KCI switch over to Fabricate / Whir of Invention instead? Either way, it would be much weaker.
If all signs point to something from KCI getting banned, it likely won't be a card shared by other decks that aren't breaking the format like Stirrings. KCI itself is obvious, but would kill the deck outright. Neither Scrap Trawler nor Myr Retriever see competitive play in any other Modern decks, so one of those would be the most likely victim in the event of a targeted ban.
Todd Anderson just said: "there are so many 90/10 matchups in modern"
I thought this was proven false?
It's statistically false but the popular perception is that it's true. It also makes for a better sound bite that gets more upvotes, views, clicks, and publicity.
Todd Anderson just said: "there are so many 90/10 matchups in modern"
I thought this was proven false?
It's statistically false but the popular perception is that it's true. It also makes for a better sound bite that gets more upvotes, views, clicks, and publicity.
This perception comes from so many games where the outcome is decided upon whether or not somebody draws exactly one card. Either they draw it and they win, or they don't draw and they lose. Those are not good, healthy, or engaging games. And those are exactly the kinds of games we just saw in this SCG top8
Todd Anderson just said: "there are so many 90/10 matchups in modern"
I thought this was proven false?
It's statistically false but the popular perception is that it's true. It also makes for a better sound bite that gets more upvotes, views, clicks, and publicity.
This perception comes from so many games where the outcome is decided upon whether or not somebody draws exactly one card. Either they draw it and they win, or they don't draw and they lose. Those are not good, healthy, or engaging games. And those are exactly the kinds of games we just saw in this SCG top8
If you have numbers to prove that allegation, I would love to see them. If not, I am going to stick with the numbers I have that show the MWP and matchup spectrum between top decks in thousands of 2018 games. Those numbers show that for the most part, matches are in the 45-55 range. It is unlikely this would happen if "the outcome is decided upon whether or not somebody draws exactly one card."
Todd Anderson just said: "there are so many 90/10 matchups in modern"
I thought this was proven false?
It's statistically false but the popular perception is that it's true. It also makes for a better sound bite that gets more upvotes, views, clicks, and publicity.
This perception comes from so many games where the outcome is decided upon whether or not somebody draws exactly one card. Either they draw it and they win, or they don't draw and they lose. Those are not good, healthy, or engaging games. And those are exactly the kinds of games we just saw in this SCG top8
If you have numbers to prove that allegation, I would love to see them. If not, I am going to stick with the numbers I have that show the MWP and matchup spectrum between top decks in thousands of 2018 games. Those numbers show that for the most part, matches are in the 45-55 range. It is unlikely this would happen if "the outcome is decided upon whether or not somebody draws exactly one card."
Dredge causes the players to have the exact one sideboard card, or lose though. a-la, sideboard wars. Same with hollow one, bridgevine.
KCI, you need to draw stony (graveyard hate is not enough most of the times).
Tron, if you are a fair deck, you need to draw land hate or you lose.
@CF is not exactly right. That's because he is wrong in the lower tier matchups. But in the top tier decks, he is up to a point(not completely).
Only GGT Dredge was proven to have this problem. So far this year, we have not yet seen a clear battle of sideboard metagame. If someone wants to make this case by comparing 2018 stats to 2016 GGT stats, sweet. I'd love to see that. Until that's done, however, I am unwilling to make format wide characterizations based on anecdotal observations and hyperbolic pro and player opinions.
My ears always perk up when I hear someone say, "90/10 matchup." 80/20s happen in my opinion, but are rare, but the 90/10 is truly a super rare unicorn.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Sorry if I’m way off here: from what I understand, since thus far no commentator has really been able to explain the combo - which is its own problem imo - the KCI combo is due to a very specific rules interaction. If R&D changed the rule around that interaction, would this solve the problem? Does that interaction matter in any other deck or format?
I still believe the issue is that people (SCG Grinders) have not been willing to accept the reality that you are either playing the 'Starting Meta' which is what people believe Modern to be, or the 'winners meta' that is what we saw at SCG, which (and I'm still tring to find comfirmation) had the 3 'Main Event' level Modern tournaments end up with KCI vs Dredge.
If thats legit, that is alarming, and does not align with what we have seen out of SCG all year.
There have been 3 distinctly different meta games all year. MTGO, SCG, and GP level. MTGO and GP are far closer to eachother, and this last SCG was the closest to those 2 that we have seen all year.
Its like people within the SCG sphere are not exposed to KCI, but :spoilers: its an obnoxious deck.
Sorry if I’m way off here: from what I understand, since thus far no commentator has really been able to explain the combo - which is its own problem imo - the KCI combo is due to a very specific rules interaction. If R&D changed the rule around that interaction, would this solve the problem? Does that interaction matter in any other deck or format?
No, no other 'tier level' deck, makes use of this rules manipulation. Some of the loops dont even work on MTGO its so obscure.
IME Tron vs Mardu Pyromancer is 90/10, or pretty damn close. Oliver Tiu said this as well, as someone with a lot of experience with Mardu. He actually took the Molten Rains out of his deck because it just didn't translate to winning any more games, and I've found this to be the case from the Tron side. But I don't know of any other matchups that are that extreme. I still beat Infect 25% of the time as Tron.
Actually, Mill vs Tron might be 90/10 in Mill's favor, but thankfully I don't have a large enough sample size to say that with confidence.
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'I cry every time.
[KCI is] one of those decks that I just don't want to play anymore cause it's not really fun for either player. You either win uncontested, or they play something like three stonys and you lose."
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
I'm on my phone, not gonna watch that, but I imagine Sai or a Nature's Claim, breaks it wide open.
Spirits
Modern is fine. AF just Tweeted that it's an important part of their plans going forward. MTGO might be an economic mess, but Modern remains the most popular and played format by all the metrics I've seen.
Re: KCI
Unlike most of the Modern alarm, this weekend is rapidly proving that KCI alarm is justified. If we get 2+ copies in the GP Portland T8, I'm switching to red flag ban mode. 1 copy would be an orange flag and 0 would diminish my worries until at least GP Oakland. Even then, however, the writing is mostly on the wall for KCI as far as I'm concerned. It's the best deck in Modern. If you aren't playing it you are willfully playing a worse deck OR you know your local metagame enough to know it's too hated.
I think they need to come back to Revolt. it's fine in Standard if they design with it mostly being creatures dying to enable it, but it's SO good in Modern. UU Revlt Counterspell that's a Mana Leak without it. Duress with a 2 life loss that turns into Thoughtseize, Shock that turns into Bolt. That mechanic was the best in a really long time, and it still has a lot of room
I think the conversation is beginning to loop back on itself. Any guess why we might see a resurgence of KCI after its most recent hiatus? Decks like Izzet/Monored Phoenix and Dredge have resulted in a meta that chased off the (at least more) midrange and control decks that were best equipped to deal with it. You can worry about the (potential) resurgence of KCI, but it's a symptom not the cause.
Just to be clear, I don't think Dredge or Phoenix are the problem either. The issue is a rock/paper/scissor meta where all three options are linear aggro/combo decks. Hopefully the meta shakes itself clear of this.
KCI has been the best deck for a while. It just keeps cementing that position. All the other Modern-related alarms this last year have not panned out over any appreciable length of time. Heck, that's been true for the past 2 years. But the KCI issue continues to return. It continues to disproportionately perform and continues to have the highest MWP of any Modern deck.
Any kind of objectivity proves this.
Dredge
Tron
Phoenix
Hollow One
KCI
Spirits
Humans
I don't know that BGx or UWx can answer that well.
Spirits
I agree. Even though I HATE Midrange and actually very rarely play Control, I see the importance of them being represented. It is important to the pendulum of decks that are on top and their sway from getting good matchups to getting bad matchups, then back again. I'm not sure if Human (Aggro) is enough.
I have seen a bit of a resurgence in straight GB Rock played over Jund. Does anyone know why this is the case? I guess a 4 of Scavenging Ooze is needed for this type of meta?
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)GB Rock is able to play 4 field of ruin, while Jund cannot, dramatically improving the Tron matchup
Speaking of which, Ancient Stirrings ban would weaken Tron thus making midrange/control better.
With a Stirrings ban, would KCI switch over to Fabricate / Whir of Invention instead? Either way, it would be much weaker.
Spirits
UB Faeries (15-6-0)
UWR Control (10-5-1)/Kiki Control/Midrange/Harbinger
UBR Cruel Control (6-4-0)/Grixis Control/Delver/Blue Jund
UWB Control/Mentor
UW Miracles/Control (currently active, 14-2-0)
BW Eldrazi & Taxes
RW Burn (9-1-0)
I do (academic) research on video games and archaeology! You can check out my open access book here: https://www.sidestone.com/books/the-interactive-past
I thought this was proven false?
It's statistically false but the popular perception is that it's true. It also makes for a better sound bite that gets more upvotes, views, clicks, and publicity.
Spirits
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
If you have numbers to prove that allegation, I would love to see them. If not, I am going to stick with the numbers I have that show the MWP and matchup spectrum between top decks in thousands of 2018 games. Those numbers show that for the most part, matches are in the 45-55 range. It is unlikely this would happen if "the outcome is decided upon whether or not somebody draws exactly one card."
Very curious how Portland ends up.
Spirits
Only GGT Dredge was proven to have this problem. So far this year, we have not yet seen a clear battle of sideboard metagame. If someone wants to make this case by comparing 2018 stats to 2016 GGT stats, sweet. I'd love to see that. Until that's done, however, I am unwilling to make format wide characterizations based on anecdotal observations and hyperbolic pro and player opinions.
My ears always perk up when I hear someone say, "90/10 matchup." 80/20s happen in my opinion, but are rare, but the 90/10 is truly a super rare unicorn.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)GWUBRDraft my Old Border Nostalgia Cube! and/or The Little Pauper Cube That Could!RBUWG
Modern:WDeath & TaxesW | RUGRUG DelverRUG
I still believe the issue is that people (SCG Grinders) have not been willing to accept the reality that you are either playing the 'Starting Meta' which is what people believe Modern to be, or the 'winners meta' that is what we saw at SCG, which (and I'm still tring to find comfirmation) had the 3 'Main Event' level Modern tournaments end up with KCI vs Dredge.
If thats legit, that is alarming, and does not align with what we have seen out of SCG all year.
There have been 3 distinctly different meta games all year. MTGO, SCG, and GP level. MTGO and GP are far closer to eachother, and this last SCG was the closest to those 2 that we have seen all year.
Its like people within the SCG sphere are not exposed to KCI, but :spoilers: its an obnoxious deck.
Spirits
No, no other 'tier level' deck, makes use of this rules manipulation. Some of the loops dont even work on MTGO its so obscure.
Spirits
Actually, Mill vs Tron might be 90/10 in Mill's favor, but thankfully I don't have a large enough sample size to say that with confidence.