About Preordain, I've posted this before, so I'll just copy and paste:
Preordain is really not that much better than Serum Visions if you look at each iteration of possible cases with the cards:
You want none of the top 3 cards: The same. Both draw you a card you don't want and bottom two others you don't want. Both dig 3 deep towards the card you're looking for. You want the top card, but not the next two: Serum Visions is better. You have to draw the third card next turn with Preordain, but SV bottoms it. You want the second card, but not the top or third: Preordain is better. Both draw you a card you don't want and bottom another, but Preordain gets you the card you want this turn, whereas SV gets it next turn. You want the third card, but not the top two: Preordain is better. You get to bottom both top cards and get the card you want, while SV has to draw one you don't want and get the card you want next turn. You want the top two cards, but not the third: Serum Visions is better. You get to bottom the third card, while Preordain won't see it, so you'll draw it two turns later. You want the top and third card, but not the second: Roughly the same. Both draw you the top card this turn and bottom the second card. However, you do have the added information from seeing the third card with SV, so it's very slightly better. You don't want the top card, but do want the second and third: Preordain is better. Lets you bottom the top card you don't want, while SV has to draw it. You want all three cards: Roughly the same. SV lets you pick the order you draw the second and third cards in, while Preordain lets you pick the order you draw the first and second in. Also as above, you do get the added info of seeing the third card with SV.
So Preordain is better in 3 cases, SV is better in 2 cases, and they're roughly the same in 3 cases, but SV does get you more info in two of those cases. So if you're playing Preordain over SV, it takes an average of 8 casts before you're +1 on better cases with the card. You're probably not casting more than 3 or 4 of these cantrips in even a long game, so you're maybe seeing an average of a little over 1 extra case where Preordain is better than SV in a three game match. That's really not a huge difference.
So Preordain is just a small amount better than Serum Visions. How is Serum Visions doing in the format right now? It's prevalence has dropped quite a bit. Opt actually sees more play now. With UW shifting to the Terminus build, people have progressively traded their SVs for Opts, to the point where a lot of people (including myself) play 4 Opt and 0 SV. Jeskai plays Opt because the instant speed is better with Snapcaster Mage. GDS has largely abandoned SV in favor of Faithless Looting and Baubles, although some people still play a couple copies. UR Tempo also prefers the instant speed.
The only blue decks that are really still in on SV are the combo decks (Storm, Ad Naus, blue Scapeshift), and the Blue Moon decks. None of these decks are at the top of the meta. Storm is probably the one doing the best, but Preordain doesn't really solve any problem the deck has, it's just a minor improvement. There's just no way you could formulate an argument that Preordain would damage Modern, it seems very apparent to me that it would do almost nothing in the format.
People hold on to the idea that Serum Visions is good because that's all we've had for many years (and that's all some of us have EVER had). It's been the gold standard, the bar, the definition of cantrip against all other cantrips were judged. This elevated status blinded a lot of us to how mediocre (or downright poor) it is in a lot of situations. Preordain is just a slightly better Serum Visions. Which means it's slightly better than a mediocre-to-bad cantrip.
What would interest me, and what I think would progress the conversation to more than us posting to a forum attempting to support what we already think is true, is if we had an analysis like what was done with ModernNexus, where they are able to simulate 100,000 games and analyze how effective it is at contributing to the consistency and speed of a deck that could potentially play it. We already have a concrete argument that the deckbuilding requirements for Ancient Stirrings are more strict than Preordain, and we can see how dominating a card like Ancient Stirrings is to the meta (in that it isn't, as demonstrated by the wide open metagame), then if we can compare the respective power that each card brings to respective decks that they can be played in, we will have come to a better understanding of the nature of the card and it's potential effect(s) on the format.
Thanks for pointing that out, I didn't know they did that I like the effort put into it, but I personally prefer the method used with the Ancient Stirrings test. I won't discount what is presented in the article, though, as it does provide valuable insight into the subject. With that said, I suppose my personal opinion on the subject right now is that I'm indifferent to a Preordain unban. If it really is mediocre compared to Serum Visions and Sleight of Hand, then who cares if it stays banned? I suppose those who really don't like playing against Tron, KCI, and Lantern will continue to be angry that Ancient Stirrings exists and might use Preordain being banned as a way to lash out about Ancient Stirrings being legal, but unless I'm looking at the metagame wrong, Ancient Stirrings decks aren't having a negative effect on the format.
People hold on to the idea that Serum Visions is good because that's all we've had for many years (and that's all some of us have EVER had). It's been the gold standard, the bar, the definition of cantrip against all other cantrips were judged. This elevated status blinded a lot of us to how mediocre (or downright poor) it is in a lot of situations. Preordain is just a slightly better Serum Visions. Which means it's slightly better than a mediocre-to-bad cantrip.
Hit the nail on the head!
For years, I hated, HATED Serum Visions. I refused to play Blue decks with such a bad cantrip. But after a while, I just kind of got used to it. I didn't play Blue often, but I learned to somewhat appreciate Serum Visions, especially when I was able to keep a Blood Moon on top of my library vs. an opponent on BGx that I knew had a discard spell. Got him with it next turn. But in reality, it is a very mediocre, at best, cantrip. Preordain is a step above, but still it is not ultra cantrip like Ponder or Brainstorm. No one is asking for those. Those would indeed have Modern looking a tiny bit more like Legacy, which I know people hate (mostly for monetary reasons, but whatever...)
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
I've got my Preordains pulled aside ready to Make Delver Great Again tonight. Please.
I'm ready for Pod or more likely Zenith to cone off the list. Midrange is trash and I think putting it back in a good position is a good thing for the fornat.
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I can't say I'm pleased to see you and must warn you I may have to do something about it.
EDH: UGEdric
Pauper: URDelver
Modern: UGRDelver
Draft my cube: Eric's 390 Unpowered
So Preordain is just a small amount better than Serum Visions. How is Serum Visions doing in the format right now? It's prevalence has dropped quite a bit. Opt actually sees more play now. With UW shifting to the Terminus build, people have progressively traded their SVs for Opts, to the point where a lot of people (including myself) play 4 Opt and 0 SV. Jeskai plays Opt because the instant speed is better with Snapcaster Mage. GDS has largely abandoned SV in favor of Faithless Looting and Baubles, although some people still play a couple copies. UR Tempo also prefers the instant speed.
That's indeed the logic, but if my simulator results are correct, and I see no reason to believe they aren't, SV is slightly better than Preordain. Like I said before, I was using the 3 deep hypothesis for it, but now I'm not so sure. I've never actually built a test to measure this, but after reading this discussion I'm thinking more and more that the information advantage of Serum Visions is what's making it better. It's better by a very slim margin, so that could be an explanation.
But as always, it's contextual. My tests have revolved around scenarios where you're just looking for any sort of action, rather than one specific card. And context naturally matters a lot.
Why? They almost always wait 1 year after significant changes before doing anything. We have a new set releasing that will undoubtedly have Modern impact, including cards deliberately designed to benefit Modern players and decks. I don't see a reason to hate Wizards over an expected no-changes update when the format is in such good shape. It's yet another endorsement that Modern is stable and healthy.
That said, there are zero good reasons for a card to not be unbanned in February. Of course, barring major metagame shifts. That would be a fine time to look at SFM or GSZ. If Wizards doesn't act then, I think many players would be justifiably upset. But right now, Wizards just gave Modern a bevvy of new cards in Guilds and "no changes" continues our 2.5+ year running narrative of a healthy format despite the vocal criticisms and minority naysayers arguing to the contrary.
So Preordain is just a small amount better than Serum Visions. How is Serum Visions doing in the format right now? It's prevalence has dropped quite a bit. Opt actually sees more play now. With UW shifting to the Terminus build, people have progressively traded their SVs for Opts, to the point where a lot of people (including myself) play 4 Opt and 0 SV. Jeskai plays Opt because the instant speed is better with Snapcaster Mage. GDS has largely abandoned SV in favor of Faithless Looting and Baubles, although some people still play a couple copies. UR Tempo also prefers the instant speed.
The only blue decks that are really still in on SV are the combo decks (Storm, Ad Naus, blue Scapeshift), and the Blue Moon decks. None of these decks are at the top of the meta. Storm is probably the one doing the best, but Preordain doesn't really solve any problem the deck has, it's just a minor improvement. There's just no way you could formulate an argument that Preordain would damage Modern, it seems very apparent to me that it would do almost nothing in the format.
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Thanks for pointing that out, I didn't know they did that
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Hit the nail on the head!
For years, I hated, HATED Serum Visions. I refused to play Blue decks with such a bad cantrip. But after a while, I just kind of got used to it. I didn't play Blue often, but I learned to somewhat appreciate Serum Visions, especially when I was able to keep a Blood Moon on top of my library vs. an opponent on BGx that I knew had a discard spell. Got him with it next turn. But in reality, it is a very mediocre, at best, cantrip. Preordain is a step above, but still it is not ultra cantrip like Ponder or Brainstorm. No one is asking for those. Those would indeed have Modern looking a tiny bit more like Legacy, which I know people hate (mostly for monetary reasons, but whatever...)
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)I'm ready for Pod or more likely Zenith to cone off the list. Midrange is trash and I think putting it back in a good position is a good thing for the fornat.
EDH: UGEdric
Pauper: UR Delver
Modern: UGR Delver
Draft my cube: Eric's 390 Unpowered
That's indeed the logic, but if my simulator results are correct, and I see no reason to believe they aren't, SV is slightly better than Preordain. Like I said before, I was using the 3 deep hypothesis for it, but now I'm not so sure. I've never actually built a test to measure this, but after reading this discussion I'm thinking more and more that the information advantage of Serum Visions is what's making it better. It's better by a very slim margin, so that could be an explanation.
But as always, it's contextual. My tests have revolved around scenarios where you're just looking for any sort of action, rather than one specific card. And context naturally matters a lot.
https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/news/october-1-2018-banned-and-restricted-announcement-2018-10-01
Spirits
Why? They almost always wait 1 year after significant changes before doing anything. We have a new set releasing that will undoubtedly have Modern impact, including cards deliberately designed to benefit Modern players and decks. I don't see a reason to hate Wizards over an expected no-changes update when the format is in such good shape. It's yet another endorsement that Modern is stable and healthy.
That said, there are zero good reasons for a card to not be unbanned in February. Of course, barring major metagame shifts. That would be a fine time to look at SFM or GSZ. If Wizards doesn't act then, I think many players would be justifiably upset. But right now, Wizards just gave Modern a bevvy of new cards in Guilds and "no changes" continues our 2.5+ year running narrative of a healthy format despite the vocal criticisms and minority naysayers arguing to the contrary.
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