If? You mean when...Blue and White get the short end of the stick cause WOTC doesn't like what they do. White has gotta pay to high a price for its answers in mana or what your opponent gets back while Blue has gotten its card draw and counters crippled by overcosting and over specificity. Meanwhile Green keeps invading Blues turf to get better draw and card filtering while keeping its exclusive access to ramp. Red similarly retains its exclusive access to Haste and Burn while getting exile top card as pseudo draw. Black mostly just does what White does better like always cause Black usually just has to pay life, discard or sacrifice something while being the primary grave reanimation color. And all three of them benefit from creatures with abilities bolted on. Meanwhile Blue and White get saddled with overcosted and underpowered creatures even if they do get abilities on them. Not the efficient threats other colors usually get to enjoy.
If spells are going to be weak for the most part and creatures strong going forward then WOTC needs to reblance the color pie. Granted I have high hopes that Return to Ravnica in the Fall for three sets and Jace being at the center will do wonderful things for control.
Personally I think the best things that can come out of the new Ravnica set are better multicolored modal spells. I'd love to see something like an improved Izzet Charm or Azoria Charm that can help make sure that Control doesn't draw the wrong half of the deck G1. Not sure what improved versions of those cards that don't outright
outclass them look like, but I don't think it'd be hard to make a good modal card that can be a 2-of in Modern that doesn't break Standard
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Decks
Modern: UWUW Control UBRGrixis Shadow URIzzet Phoenix
Fair enough like I said I expect Blue to get good treatment ala Red on Kaladesh thanks to Chandra since Jace is in Front and Bolas has Blue as well.
Izzet Charm
Broader Counter: Counter Target Spells Unless Controller Pays 2. Or Counter Target Spell CMC 4 or Less.
More Damage: Boros Charm gets to do 4 to a player...I think Izzet should easily get 3 to a creature.
Better Draw: Scry First? Draw 2 Discard 1?
Azorius Charm
Lifelink: Anything over lifelink if has to buff creatures. Unless WOTC wants to give Azorius way better creatures...Unblockable? Hexproof? Flying?
Card Draw: Draw 2?
Creature Removal: Straight Exile with the Blocking or Attacking Restriction. Straight Exile they get some life no Blocking or Attacking Restriction. Unconditional Bounce and they cannot recast until your next turn.
Honestly, I hope Boros Charm is the standard and we get Guild Commands.
boros charm only has one relevant mode in modern, and only sees play in one deck, that is a pretty low standard. expecting strictly better versions of charms is unrealistic, especially when the original charms saw plenty of play.
red may have a high density of pushed cards in standard at the moment, but both UW (creatureless) control and UB (midrange/control) arent far behind. its not as if blue control has been suffering, even with 3 mana counters and the like.
i expect plenty of modern playables from a multicolored block, since colored mana restrictions are less of a thing, but it looks like you are just setting yourself up for disappointment. those 'improved' charm effects arent reasonable in the slightest, itd be like selesnya charm making a 4/4 creature at instant speed, exiling a creature with 2 power or greater, or +5/+5 with trample.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
oh those are dream charms...I fully expect a flavorful set with most of the real power at Mythic and Rare ala Dominaria. I wish they push the power for the Bolas Conclusion but I am dubious they will.
Some guild commands could certainly be a good way to shore up modern weaknesses. Control has the issue of trying to fight against a wide open metagame, but if we could get some Ux commands with modes like target land becomes an island, exile a card from a GY, etc to give main deck ways to deal with fringe scenarios it could be very helpful.
Indestructible mode can be pretty important in various situations, e.g. protecting your Eidolon when opponent is low on life, protecting a vital chump-blocker or preventing destruction of your Ensnaring Bridge.
It probably comes as a surprise to no one, but breakdown of SCG's Invitational is flooded with Jeskai decks! Granted it's a split format of Modern and Standard, and SCG events are regularly flooded with Jeskai decks, it's literally twice the presence of the next highest placements: Affinity and Humans.
It probably comes as a surprise to no one, but breakdown of SCG's Invitational is flooded with Jeskai decks! Granted it's a split format of Modern and Standard, and SCG events are regularly flooded with Jeskai decks, it's literally twice the presence of the next highest placements: Affinity and Humans.
Jeskai is also a good choice if you just have to get through only 8 rounds and you're expecting a lot of aggressive decks. I expect this metagame breakdown probably approximates what most metagames would look like in most tournaments, GP and 15 round events excluded. I look forward to seeing the 8-0 and 7-1 decks!
Indestructible mode can be pretty important in various situations, e.g. protecting your Eidolon when opponent is low on life, protecting a vital chump-blocker or preventing destruction of your Ensnaring Bridge.
sure...i guess. those fringe situations such as giving a creature double strike when an opponent has a leyline out come up, but 9 out of 10 times the cards is used for its intended purpose. so i stand by my statement.
a new command cycle would be welcomed, or even just finishing the two-color commands. itd be nice if UG had something worthwhile.
Jeskai is also a good choice if you just have to get through only 8 rounds and you're expecting a lot of aggressive decks. I expect this metagame breakdown probably approximates what most metagames would look like in most tournaments
I'd say it approximates what you would see if you played in the Midwest and East Coast and on the SCG circuit. As their metagames are often fairly different from any other measurable meta.
Jeskai is also a good choice if you just have to get through only 8 rounds and you're expecting a lot of aggressive decks. I expect this metagame breakdown probably approximates what most metagames would look like in most tournaments
I'd say it approximates what you would see if you played in the Midwest and East Coast and on the SCG circuit. As their metagames are often fairly different from any other measurable meta.
I mean, all metagames are pretty different. Japan is different, MTGO is different, Italy and the Dutch are different, etc. We saw this for years when tracking results in aggregate. Stating that the SCG scene is different than "any" measurable metagame is sort of meaningless because that would be technically true of any set of tournament results we looked at. And yet, we mostly see this qualification for just SCG and largely when it's healthy SCG results.
I feel like some people, you included in this post and others, just look for reasons and alternate explanations to undercut or otherwise question SCG results. I think that's fine if we're being skeptical for all events, but when it's just SCG events then I have to wonder. This is doubly true when the SCG results look diverse and criticism ramps up. When they looked ugly, we didn't see many people criticizing their relevance and instead saw people using them as examples of format imbalance. This gives me further doubt about the line of questioning.
I feel like some people, you included in this post and others, just look for reasons and alternate explanations to undercut or otherwise question SCG results. I think that's fine if we're being skeptical for all events, but when it's just SCG events then I have to wonder. This is doubly true when the SCG results look diverse and criticism ramps up. When they looked ugly, we didn't see many people criticizing their relevance and instead saw people using them as examples of format imbalance. This gives me further doubt about the line of questioning.
It's just that SCG events consistently don't line up with either MTGO or GP data. It's one data point in a number of data points, none of which probably perfectly replicate anyone's local meta. But of the events to determine "the best decks," SCG opens (and Classics) are notorious for being very different from GPs and PTs, for whatever reasons, and whatever that means. Not saying one is strictly better or worse than the other, but frequently Opens are regarded as a "play the deck you own/like" (even by their own commentators) compared to GPs, in which a larger number of people are actively trying to play the deck that they feel has the best chance of winning.
Edit: and in the case of this particular event, we have a result tainted by 8 rounds of Standard. So I wait with equal anticipation of the 8-0 and 7-1 Modern lists.
2x G Tron
Hollow One with Lingering Souls
2x Mardu Pyromancer
Infect
Jund
2x Jeskai
Very solid list. Infect is the only real surprise showing, and the lack of Humans is a surprise absence. Hopefully we see similar breakdowns in upcoming events.
It's fairly representative of Jeskai. 17% of day 2 (22/127) and 22% of 7-1 or better (2 of 9).
Very interesting to see no Humans or Affinity on that list, but I guess not that surprised with the field clogged with Bolts and Helixes and Paths and Verdicts.
Although with Jeskai, seems like a great time for Tron. Less than 5% of day 2 (6/127), but equal representation in 7-1+ (2 of 9).
The meta at the last big SCG event was great for Tron, and it was underrepresented then too. The grinders on that circuit just don't seem to be interested in picking the deck up, regardless of its positioning.
well this is still an invitational tournament. the quality of players is going to be higher, and there is more incentive to win.
if it werent split format, id rate the results at this sort of tournament on the same level as a GP. however since it is split, im not gonna look too closely at anything. after all there could have been any number of players who 4-0/3-1'd their modern portion on day 1, but didnt make the cut because of standard.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
These tournaments don't have the results I want and are therefore worthless.
Unless there is a quantifiable reason to disregard the data such as team events or events that are dependent on other formats (like the pro tour being half limited) the data should be incorporated into the whole. Individual meta games exist but if we only use GP data then GP data is useless because that won't describe the metagame for the 99% of modern that takes place outside of it.
well all results arent equal. certain qualities of events such as the stakes, number of rounds, and strength of the field WILL influence the decks that show up. however i also believe that any problems that need to be addressed by wizards will eventually show at ALL levels of play. such problems are just more likely to show up at GPs and the pro-tour first because a lot of the extraneous stuff is cut away when there are serious prize implications.
there is also the hangup of wizards failing to mention anything but their own premier events in their rationale behind making decisions. id like to assume they look at or care about other stuff, but its not like they have a spotless track record. the perception of the format is something they have to consider, and GPs and the pro-tour are simply the face of the format whether we like it or not.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
I can't wait to watch the NBL modern tomorrow. Cedric said this is really an experiment to determine what can not come off the ban list pretty much ever. I predict we will be seeing eye of ugin, skullclamp and Dark Depths do very well. We may see splinter twin, DTT, treasure cruise, mental misstep, Preordain, birthing pod, glimpse of nature, hypergenesis, and a few others too.
But all that said, I am wondering what we will not see, and does that mean it would be ok to unban it?
I predict we do not see very much dread return, GGT, artifact lands, summer bloom or second sunrise. I am definitely NOT calling for these to be unbanned. Some cards I listed as doing well like preordain or twin are often named as possible unbans, but very few people would push for a GGT, summer bloom or second sunrise unban even if the decks perform very poorly in NBL modern.
I am really asking do the results of this tournament really matter at all for unbans or is it only solidifying the status of the most broken cards?
I am open to a list of about 10-12 cards that I think may be acceptable in modern today and I don't think I would be upset if they were unbanned. If those appear oppressive tomorrow I think I will change my mind on the offending card and I will want it to stay banned, but I do not think a card that is under performing tomorrow will change my mind the same way if I thought it should be banned originally.
These tournaments don't have the results I want and are therefore worthless.
Unless there is a quantifiable reason to disregard the data such as team events or events that are dependent on other formats (like the pro tour being half limited) the data should be incorporated into the whole. Individual meta games exist but if we only use GP data then GP data is useless because that won't describe the metagame for the 99% of modern that takes place outside of it.
The Invitational is dependent on other formats. It's half-Standard, half-Modern. That's actually a lower percentage of Modern than the Pro Tour (which is 3/8 Limited, 5/8 Modern).
I can't wait to watch the NBL modern tomorrow. Cedric said this is really an experiment to determine what can not come off the ban list pretty much ever. I predict we will be seeing eye of ugin, skullclamp and Dark Depths do very well. We may see splinter twin, DTT, treasure cruise, mental misstep, Preordain, birthing pod, glimpse of nature, hypergenesis, and a few others too.
But all that said, I am wondering what we will not see, and does that mean it would be ok to unban it?
I predict we do not see very much dread return, GGT, artifact lands, summer bloom or second sunrise. I am definitely NOT calling for these to be unbanned. Some cards I listed as doing well like preordain or twin are often named as possible unbans, but very few people would push for a GGT, summer bloom or second sunrise unban even if the decks perform very poorly in NBL modern.
I am really asking do the results of this tournament really matter at all for unbans or is it only solidifying the status of the most broken cards?
I am open to a list of about 10-12 cards that I think may be acceptable in modern today and I don't think I would be upset if they were unbanned. If those appear oppressive tomorrow I think I will change my mind on the offending card and I will want it to stay banned, but I do not think a card that is under performing tomorrow will change my mind the same way if I thought it should be banned originally.
well its like you pointed out. a lot of it is contextual. some number of cards might be super powerful, but in the context of powered up eldrazi or an elves deck with skullclamp and gsz, some of the other cards or decks look tame in comparison.
it does however shed some new light on the banlist. while some cards might not necessarily be outright safe to unban right now, we can hope that a portion of the banlist is up for periodic consideration as the format evolves and grows in power. i think this hope is closer to reality than it was prior to the reinstatement of modern as a pro-tour format. wizards just has more incentive to look towards the ban list as a tool to more directly impact the format without having to resort to the extreme option of banning. of course they only really have reason to do so if standard sets arent feeding enough cards to modern to have it organically change on its own.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
I'm just mostly curious as to what the format looks like on a large scale--depending on how it turns out, this could be a good argument for or against increased usage of No Banned List Modern as a format.
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If spells are going to be weak for the most part and creatures strong going forward then WOTC needs to reblance the color pie. Granted I have high hopes that Return to Ravnica in the Fall for three sets and Jace being at the center will do wonderful things for control.
outclass them look like, but I don't think it'd be hard to make a good modal card that can be a 2-of in Modern that doesn't break Standard
Modern:
UWUW Control
UBRGrixis Shadow
URIzzet Phoenix
Izzet Charm
Broader Counter: Counter Target Spells Unless Controller Pays 2. Or Counter Target Spell CMC 4 or Less.
More Damage: Boros Charm gets to do 4 to a player...I think Izzet should easily get 3 to a creature.
Better Draw: Scry First? Draw 2 Discard 1?
Azorius Charm
Lifelink: Anything over lifelink if has to buff creatures. Unless WOTC wants to give Azorius way better creatures...Unblockable? Hexproof? Flying?
Card Draw: Draw 2?
Creature Removal: Straight Exile with the Blocking or Attacking Restriction. Straight Exile they get some life no Blocking or Attacking Restriction. Unconditional Bounce and they cannot recast until your next turn.
Honestly, I hope Boros Charm is the standard and we get Guild Commands.
red may have a high density of pushed cards in standard at the moment, but both UW (creatureless) control and UB (midrange/control) arent far behind. its not as if blue control has been suffering, even with 3 mana counters and the like.
i expect plenty of modern playables from a multicolored block, since colored mana restrictions are less of a thing, but it looks like you are just setting yourself up for disappointment. those 'improved' charm effects arent reasonable in the slightest, itd be like selesnya charm making a 4/4 creature at instant speed, exiling a creature with 2 power or greater, or +5/+5 with trample.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)http://www.starcitygames.com/events/coverage/4363_day_2_metagame_breakdown.html
Modern
Jeskai Control – 22
Humans – 11
Affinity – 11
Mardu Pyromancer – 9
U/W Control – 8
B/R Hollow One – 7
U/R Gifts Storm – 6
G/W Hexproof – 6
Burn – 6
Ironworks Combo – 5
Mono-Green Tron – 5
Dredge – 4
G/W Company – 4
Eldrazi Tron – 2
Counters Company – 2
Titan Shift – 2
Jund – 2
R/G Eldrazi – 2
Amulet Titan – 1
Infect – 1
Esper Control – 1
Blue Moon – 1
Colorless Eldrazi – 1
G/R Tron – 1
Elves – 1
Skred Red – 1
Grixis Death’s Shadow – 1
Four-Color Death’s Shadow – 1
G/W Midrange – 1
W/R Prison – 1
Mono-Green Devotion – 1
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Jeskai is also a good choice if you just have to get through only 8 rounds and you're expecting a lot of aggressive decks. I expect this metagame breakdown probably approximates what most metagames would look like in most tournaments, GP and 15 round events excluded. I look forward to seeing the 8-0 and 7-1 decks!
a new command cycle would be welcomed, or even just finishing the two-color commands. itd be nice if UG had something worthwhile.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)I mean, all metagames are pretty different. Japan is different, MTGO is different, Italy and the Dutch are different, etc. We saw this for years when tracking results in aggregate. Stating that the SCG scene is different than "any" measurable metagame is sort of meaningless because that would be technically true of any set of tournament results we looked at. And yet, we mostly see this qualification for just SCG and largely when it's healthy SCG results.
I feel like some people, you included in this post and others, just look for reasons and alternate explanations to undercut or otherwise question SCG results. I think that's fine if we're being skeptical for all events, but when it's just SCG events then I have to wonder. This is doubly true when the SCG results look diverse and criticism ramps up. When they looked ugly, we didn't see many people criticizing their relevance and instead saw people using them as examples of format imbalance. This gives me further doubt about the line of questioning.
It's just that SCG events consistently don't line up with either MTGO or GP data. It's one data point in a number of data points, none of which probably perfectly replicate anyone's local meta. But of the events to determine "the best decks," SCG opens (and Classics) are notorious for being very different from GPs and PTs, for whatever reasons, and whatever that means. Not saying one is strictly better or worse than the other, but frequently Opens are regarded as a "play the deck you own/like" (even by their own commentators) compared to GPs, in which a larger number of people are actively trying to play the deck that they feel has the best chance of winning.
Edit: and in the case of this particular event, we have a result tainted by 8 rounds of Standard. So I wait with equal anticipation of the 8-0 and 7-1 Modern lists.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
7-1 or better Modern lists.
2x G Tron
Hollow One with Lingering Souls
2x Mardu Pyromancer
Infect
Jund
2x Jeskai
Very solid list. Infect is the only real surprise showing, and the lack of Humans is a surprise absence. Hopefully we see similar breakdowns in upcoming events.
Very interesting to see no Humans or Affinity on that list, but I guess not that surprised with the field clogged with Bolts and Helixes and Paths and Verdicts.
Although with Jeskai, seems like a great time for Tron. Less than 5% of day 2 (6/127), but equal representation in 7-1+ (2 of 9).
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
if it werent split format, id rate the results at this sort of tournament on the same level as a GP. however since it is split, im not gonna look too closely at anything. after all there could have been any number of players who 4-0/3-1'd their modern portion on day 1, but didnt make the cut because of standard.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Unless there is a quantifiable reason to disregard the data such as team events or events that are dependent on other formats (like the pro tour being half limited) the data should be incorporated into the whole. Individual meta games exist but if we only use GP data then GP data is useless because that won't describe the metagame for the 99% of modern that takes place outside of it.
there is also the hangup of wizards failing to mention anything but their own premier events in their rationale behind making decisions. id like to assume they look at or care about other stuff, but its not like they have a spotless track record. the perception of the format is something they have to consider, and GPs and the pro-tour are simply the face of the format whether we like it or not.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)But all that said, I am wondering what we will not see, and does that mean it would be ok to unban it?
I predict we do not see very much dread return, GGT, artifact lands, summer bloom or second sunrise. I am definitely NOT calling for these to be unbanned. Some cards I listed as doing well like preordain or twin are often named as possible unbans, but very few people would push for a GGT, summer bloom or second sunrise unban even if the decks perform very poorly in NBL modern.
I am really asking do the results of this tournament really matter at all for unbans or is it only solidifying the status of the most broken cards?
I am open to a list of about 10-12 cards that I think may be acceptable in modern today and I don't think I would be upset if they were unbanned. If those appear oppressive tomorrow I think I will change my mind on the offending card and I will want it to stay banned, but I do not think a card that is under performing tomorrow will change my mind the same way if I thought it should be banned originally.
well its like you pointed out. a lot of it is contextual. some number of cards might be super powerful, but in the context of powered up eldrazi or an elves deck with skullclamp and gsz, some of the other cards or decks look tame in comparison.
it does however shed some new light on the banlist. while some cards might not necessarily be outright safe to unban right now, we can hope that a portion of the banlist is up for periodic consideration as the format evolves and grows in power. i think this hope is closer to reality than it was prior to the reinstatement of modern as a pro-tour format. wizards just has more incentive to look towards the ban list as a tool to more directly impact the format without having to resort to the extreme option of banning. of course they only really have reason to do so if standard sets arent feeding enough cards to modern to have it organically change on its own.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)