So, the only nonaggro noncombo deck that is able to exist because of tron is one that plays 3 blood moon baseline. The other is one that autoloses to tron but is able to exist because it has a very high win% against most of the aggro decks that exist because they don't autolose to Tron. Then there's jund, which doesn't lose as hard to Tron, but still loses to it, and also has a somewhat positive matchup against the aggro decks but is far less efficient at beating them than jeskai.
Healthy? Depends on who's looking I guess.
I don't like it.
Banning stirrings makes Tron more fair and also nerfs lantern, which would be too good if tron didn't exist.
Plus every nerf to lantern is good, specially after the printing of yet another busted op mistake tutor.
Don't get it twisted; Mardu Reveler loses pretty badly to Tron as well.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
All the decks I build lose hard to Tron. That's ok. There'd be a problem if I could just load up and destroy aggro/combo G1 and side into really good anti-control/midrange cards for G2/G3's (and more combo/GY hate) without being punished by a deck like Tron. It keeps balance in the format. In a large event, that's not such a problem because Tron is maybe 6-8% of any given field and probably less Day 2 / Top tables so you can probably afford to punt the MU, however, when 25% of your local meta is Tron/E-Ton it's a little frustrating.
Wasn't Tron fair and balanced and kept the format in check before they had new ulamog and ugin?
I didn't say it should be banned from the format, just nerfed a bit into reasonable levels.
It seems like a little change to a 6-8% of the format, but I believe it would change the whole landscape of the format and make it way more fun.
thats the thing though. its just a clashing of viewpoints on the philosophy of managing the format. its not something where a consensus can be reached, and the ultimate arbiters of what is 'right' or 'wrong' is wizards.
some believe in the rock-paper-lizards-spock paradigm. some archetype representation and balance. some metagame shares. some color distribution and balance. some favor the gameplay when 'fair' decks are the best thing to be doing. etc.
for example one person argues "tron should go away because it pushes fair decks out of the format". then the next person argues "tron should stick around because it keeps fair decks in check". both are using the same point to make different cases.
trons continued existence throughout the years indicates that wizards prefers that decks and strategies can be countered on a macro level.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
Tron is annoying. But I think until we see some sort of dominance akin to the dominance that Storm/Eggs/Pod/Delver/Bloom/Eye Eldrazi/Dredge/Infect/Twin had for an extended time period (well, less than that in the case of some of those), then it doesn't need to have anything banned. Eye of Ugin at least slowed it down some? Well, maybe not much...
I would say that if Affinity is perfectly fine, Tron has done waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay less since the inception of Modern.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
So, the only nonaggro noncombo deck that is able to exist because of tron is one that plays 3 blood moon baseline. The other is one that autoloses to tron but is able to exist because it has a very high win% against most of the aggro decks that exist because they don't autolose to Tron. Then there's jund, which doesn't lose as hard to Tron, but still loses to it, and also has a somewhat positive matchup against the aggro decks but is far less efficient at beating them than jeskai.
Healthy? Depends on who's looking I guess.
I don't like it.
Banning stirrings makes Tron more fair and also nerfs lantern, which would be too good if tron didn't exist.
Plus every nerf to lantern is good, specially after the printing of yet another busted op mistake tutor.
Disagree wildly, because midrange decks need predators. All decks get to have rough matchups. It is only the idea that jund has to be a 50/50 deck vs the field by jund players that pushes this anti-tron concept.
How on Earth is Tron hurting Modern? I'm not sure where the Tron hate train came from over the past day or two, but it just seems crazy from where I sit. Does it give opponents cases of the feel bads? Absolutely, but there are over half a dozen decks that can do that. Any deck that can pull a nut draw and do crazy things makes people upset, but somehow Tron is the biggest evil in Modern? I'm not buying it. If there's a secret big bad in this format, and that's a BIG if, it's Lantern, and that's a whole different conversation.
You and everyone else need to stop using hyperbolic matchup descriptors.
When Tron wins it feels like an 80-20 matchup but it's the same with Storm. Just a different angle of attack. When Tron loses it feels like a 20-80 matchup, much like combo decks. But those scenarios happen in the vicintiy of 40-60% of the time
To my knowledge we have never seen a documented matchup worse than 60-40 in modern's history among the top decks, not even Burn vs. Storm afaik (Edit: I guess affinity vs. twin was 30-70? It never seemed like that to me when Affinity was running spellskites).
Obviously times have changed since we had those numbers, but it seems unlikely they have changed so much that a previously 60-40 matchup is now 80-20.
One of the worst matchups I can remember was GR tron vs. Abzan Company - with 4 pyroclasms and 3 ostones and 1-2 ugins, it felt unwinnable. But I still won about a third of my matches.
I see we are back to midrange and control players complaining about Tron. This generally indicates the format is fine. In particular, allegations of 80/20 matchups are unsupportable without actual data. Are we really claiming Jeskai vs. Tron is the same as Ad Nauseam vs. Infect? No way. I played UW Control for months last year and had an MWP in the 40/60 - 45/55 range. Even if the true MWP is lower, this just means midrange/control is in the same boat as other archetypes that are significant underdogs in key matchups. You don't see combo mages complaining about how they are wrecked by disruptive aggro. You don't see big mana mages complaining about how they are wrecked by combo and aggressive strategies. It's just the midrange and control players who come off as entitled to not have polarizing matchups, and/or frustrated that they have to have bad matchups like other decks. It's particularly dissonant given that many less-played, lower-tier strategies were complete underdogs to something like Twin. Even big names like Affinity were 30/70 against Twin. You didn't see those players in here complaining about Twin's hold on their decks, but you do see many Twin expats in here complaining that their new deck doesn't have the same idealized matchup spectrum as Twin. That's a double standard which often goes unaddressed and detracts from the credibility of many complainants.
Also, I can't stress this enough: Modern's alleged polarity appears to have NO EFFECT on the MWP of the best players. This is true in BOTH the SCG Open circuit and in GP/Pro events. If one is not experiencing MWP or tournament success in Modern, it would be beneficial to look towards one's own skillset rather than blame format variance, matchup lottery, matchup polarity, etc. By all measures I've seen so far, those effects are not actually mattering for the best Modern players.
Who's complaining? I'm simply noting that even the perception of Tron has an impact on the formation of the meta.
This is a true statement.
If it didnt, you better believe there would be a lot more people playing fair decks.
Jeskai Control and Humans are the two most played decks on MTGgoldfish right now. Fair decks are being played and they are represented at the top tables. Tron exists, but it influenced the meta just like every other deck.
Yeah exactly. Now UWR's placement is a recent thing, I've been tracking it, and its been shifting over the period of weeks. The Modern MTGO event that just happened is showing how its going to shift back, and (spoilers) its going to be Tron.
Prediction: GP Vegas will be Affinity, Tron, and Humans, making up most of the top 16, with 1 UW Control (aka Mana Denial) and a UWR deck as well who misses the top 8.
Yeah exactly. Now UWR's placement is a recent thing, I've been tracking it, and its been shifting over the period of weeks. The Modern MTGO event that just happened is showing how its going to shift back, and (spoilers) its going to be Tron.
Prediction: GP Vegas will be Affinity, Tron, and Humans, making up most of the top 16, with 1 UW Control (aka Mana Denial) and a UWR deck as well who misses the top 8.
I hope so. After last night, I am leaning toward Titanshift for Vegas. Got only my second 3-0-1 at a particular LGS in around 2 months. Nice matchups all around! Although I do kind of wish more people played Jund/Junk. That matchup is fun for me when I play Titanshift.
(I should probably clarify that I played 8 times at that LGS in 2 months; every Wednesday and Friday.)
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
To throw my data out there, my record against Mardu with Tron is 24 wins in 26 matches. It's not a huge sample size and you can call some of it variance but even if I lose 4 in a row from here it's still 80/20. That's really unprecedented. Even in the best midrange/control matchups historically I've never had a winrate consistently above 70% at most, 65% is more realistic. Mardu is just uniquely poorly positioned against Tron like nothing I've ever seen. Their clock is too slow, they have no card advantage engines, no efficient answers to any of my threats (no Path for Wurmcoil, 0 to 1 Dreadbore for planeswalkers), no "free win" cards out of the side ie Stony Silence, etc. Jund can take over with an unchecked Bob/Liliana and they can close pretty quickly. Once UWx can stabilize with a Teferi or start looping Cryptics after a bunch of land destruction it gets pretty difficult. Mardu just has none of that.
yeah that is what i have heard from other players about their experiences. mardu, even with blood moon, is actually worse against tron than jund is.
that and mardu has piss poor closing speed, but that is sort of a known weakness that ties into it. also mardu relying heavily on bolt and push is a liability as much as it is a strength depending on the matchup.
edit: also dont get me wrong. i think mardu is a sweet deck. i had a blast the few times i was able to play it thanks to a friend loaning it to me, however its a deck that is very much about momentum and can seriously drag its feet some games before it gets started.
To throw my data out there, my record against Mardu with Tron is 24 wins in 26 matches. It's not a huge sample size and you can call some of it variance but even if I lose 4 in a row from here it's still 80/20. That's really unprecedented. Even in the best midrange/control matchups historically I've never had a winrate consistently above 70% at most, 65% is more realistic. Mardu is just uniquely poorly positioned against Tron like nothing I've ever seen. Their clock is too slow, they have no card advantage engines, no efficient answers to any of my threats (no Path for Wurmcoil, 0 to 1 Dreadbore for planeswalkers), no "free win" cards out of the side ie Stony Silence, etc. Jund can take over with an unchecked Bob/Liliana and they can close pretty quickly. Once UWx can stabilize with a Teferi or start looping Cryptics after a bunch of land destruction it gets pretty difficult. Mardu just has none of that.
Yup and that's why I don't pay to play on mtgo anymore. Just don't want to play against tron and get wrecked, because I'm bored of playing burn.
The only deck I would take, and play fair with, against an open field expecting Tron is UW Mana Denial.
Blood Moon is not enough, when GTron fully expects to, and must, handle Moon to even have a chance. Its like a burn deck without Skull Cracks, just doesnt happen.
There is the reason that Modern event had UW in the top 8 with all those trons.
Mardu is an anti-meta deck. It wasn't built to beat tron. It was built to beat aggro decks with removal and midrange through its threats having built-in CA along with the occasional blood moon cheesing a win. Tron, similarly, is built to be good with a lot of fair decks around. That's how literally every deck is. You know going into a large event that you have to dodge two or three decks. I play burn, I need to dodge bogles and mardu. You play jund, you wanna dodge tron and eldrazi. You play storm, you want to dodge humans and burn. This rock/paper/scissors dynamic might not please some people, but there's one fundamental truth to it: it is fairly applied. Everyone knows going in that a little luck is involved, and I consider luck a nice equalizer. That goes double when you can build a deck for $500 or less and beat $2k jund
Their clock is too slow, they have no card advantage engines, no efficient answers to any of my threats (no Path for Wurmcoil, 0 to 1 Dreadbore for planeswalkers), no "free win" cards out of the side ie Stony Silence, etc. Jund can take over with an unchecked Bob/Liliana and they can close pretty quickly. Once UWx can stabilize with a Teferi or start looping Cryptics after a bunch of land destruction it gets pretty difficult. Mardu just has none of that.
Soooo.... they're just a few MB / SB cards away from adjusting? Play more path, fewer pushes. Play blood moon in SB. More LD? Fulminator mage?
I know no deck can cover every other deck and maybe Tron numbers are low enough in your meta that who ever it is you're crushing doesn't adapt, but it's not like Mardu has no tools.
Mardu is an anti-meta deck. It wasn't built to beat tron. It was built to beat aggro decks with removal and midrange through its threats having built-in CA along with the occasional blood moon cheesing a win. Tron, similarly, is built to be good with a lot of fair decks around. That's how literally every deck is. You know going into a large event that you have to dodge two or three decks. I play burn, I need to dodge bogles and mardu. You play jund, you wanna dodge tron and eldrazi. You play storm, you want to dodge humans and burn. This rock/paper/scissors dynamic might not please some people, but there's one fundamental truth to it: it is fairly applied. Everyone knows going in that a little luck is involved, and I consider luck a nice equalizer. That goes double when you can build a deck for $500 or less and beat $2k jund
GREAT point, and something I struggled to come to grips with for a very long time. This is EXACTLY what we have seen in the last month, two months, with the relationship between all the aggro condensing into Humans, the impact it had on Tron, and the upswing of UWR.
This is just how its going to be now, and it certainly appears to be functioning (the meta that is) as curated by Wizards.
Mardu is an anti-meta deck. It wasn't built to beat tron. It was built to beat aggro decks with removal and midrange through its threats having built-in CA along with the occasional blood moon cheesing a win. Tron, similarly, is built to be good with a lot of fair decks around. That's how literally every deck is. You know going into a large event that you have to dodge two or three decks. I play burn, I need to dodge bogles and mardu. You play jund, you wanna dodge tron and eldrazi. You play storm, you want to dodge humans and burn. This rock/paper/scissors dynamic might not please some people, but there's one fundamental truth to it: it is fairly applied. Everyone knows going in that a little luck is involved, and I consider luck a nice equalizer. That goes double when you can build a deck for $500 or less and beat $2k jund
Except 2 years ago I could consistently beat tron with Rug scapeshift (my favorite archetype is control with a combo finish, I don't like grinding control, it's too slow and boring). But now, there's no way I can do that. Not with any slow deck, not scapeshift, not anything. What has changed since then? What changed is that tron got new toys and rug scapeshift or any other control or combocontrol or midrange deck didn't get any new toys to have a favorable MU against tron.
I also love to brew new decks or brew existing decks to make them better for the current meta, but tron trumps that every time, I just know that I can't brew anything that doesn't pretend to win by t4 if it doesn't have a very good plan vs Tron.
I was super happy when they banned twin and never liked the deck that much, but man, right now, I think it would be my favorite deck since I think it kind of would have a fair tron MU and is not aggro or all-in combo.
Thats...not exactly true. When you are not playing 'slow and boring' grinding Control (I'm offended on behalf of my Teferi's...) I think that the speedbumps that we have been given (Damping Sphere, Field of Ruin) are absolutely vaiable additions to a control/combo finish.
I dont know if FoR is too constricting for Scapeshift (I swore off 1 card combo's after Twin died) but it's obviously good enough for some decks to leverage, and Damping Sphere, in a shell that isnt all about the grind, is certainly enough to get you there, assuming of course it isnt Nature's Claimed off the top with a stupid Egg to provide that Green mana, but them's the breaks.
Game1 is 50% of the games you need to win to beat tron, and good sideboard cards aren't that impressive. They help, but it's the SB lottery again, which is depressing.
FoR (I recognized its huge potential since it got spoiled, people got it after testing it btw, I think I wrote it down in the spoilers thread) doesn't fit in scapeshift and is clunky in 3 color decks. All in all, it's by far not enough to deal with tron. Another way of saying it is that Tron got waaaaay better cards that its competitors. Specially Ugin and ulamog (seriously, 2 permanents not counterable ? wtf?).
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Healthy? Depends on who's looking I guess.
I don't like it.
Banning stirrings makes Tron more fair and also nerfs lantern, which would be too good if tron didn't exist.
Plus every nerf to lantern is good, specially after the printing of yet another busted op mistake tutor.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)I didn't say it should be banned from the format, just nerfed a bit into reasonable levels.
It seems like a little change to a 6-8% of the format, but I believe it would change the whole landscape of the format and make it way more fun.
some believe in the rock-paper-lizards-spock paradigm. some archetype representation and balance. some metagame shares. some color distribution and balance. some favor the gameplay when 'fair' decks are the best thing to be doing. etc.
for example one person argues "tron should go away because it pushes fair decks out of the format". then the next person argues "tron should stick around because it keeps fair decks in check". both are using the same point to make different cases.
trons continued existence throughout the years indicates that wizards prefers that decks and strategies can be countered on a macro level.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)I would say that if Affinity is perfectly fine, Tron has done waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay less since the inception of Modern.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Disagree wildly, because midrange decks need predators. All decks get to have rough matchups. It is only the idea that jund has to be a 50/50 deck vs the field by jund players that pushes this anti-tron concept.
There are a class of decks that hurt most control (UW is warped to fight Tron) most midrange, and most 'fair' decks. They are all Tron.
If you dont want to get slammed by Tron, you play something that is unfair yourself, or can aggro them out.
Its not that they are 'too good' but it is, as any good deck will, warping things.
Spirits
When Tron wins it feels like an 80-20 matchup but it's the same with Storm. Just a different angle of attack. When Tron loses it feels like a 20-80 matchup, much like combo decks. But those scenarios happen in the vicintiy of 40-60% of the time
To my knowledge we have never seen a documented matchup worse than 60-40 in modern's history among the top decks, not even Burn vs. Storm afaik (Edit: I guess affinity vs. twin was 30-70? It never seemed like that to me when Affinity was running spellskites).
Obviously times have changed since we had those numbers, but it seems unlikely they have changed so much that a previously 60-40 matchup is now 80-20.
One of the worst matchups I can remember was GR tron vs. Abzan Company - with 4 pyroclasms and 3 ostones and 1-2 ugins, it felt unwinnable. But I still won about a third of my matches.
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
Also, I can't stress this enough: Modern's alleged polarity appears to have NO EFFECT on the MWP of the best players. This is true in BOTH the SCG Open circuit and in GP/Pro events. If one is not experiencing MWP or tournament success in Modern, it would be beneficial to look towards one's own skillset rather than blame format variance, matchup lottery, matchup polarity, etc. By all measures I've seen so far, those effects are not actually mattering for the best Modern players.
This is a true statement.
If it didnt, you better believe there would be a lot more people playing fair decks.
Spirits
Jeskai Control and Humans are the two most played decks on MTGgoldfish right now. Fair decks are being played and they are represented at the top tables. Tron exists, but it influenced the meta just like every other deck.
Prediction: GP Vegas will be Affinity, Tron, and Humans, making up most of the top 16, with 1 UW Control (aka Mana Denial) and a UWR deck as well who misses the top 8.
Spirits
I hope so. After last night, I am leaning toward Titanshift for Vegas. Got only my second 3-0-1 at a particular LGS in around 2 months. Nice matchups all around! Although I do kind of wish more people played Jund/Junk. That matchup is fun for me when I play Titanshift.
(I should probably clarify that I played 8 times at that LGS in 2 months; every Wednesday and Friday.)
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)that and mardu has piss poor closing speed, but that is sort of a known weakness that ties into it. also mardu relying heavily on bolt and push is a liability as much as it is a strength depending on the matchup.
edit: also dont get me wrong. i think mardu is a sweet deck. i had a blast the few times i was able to play it thanks to a friend loaning it to me, however its a deck that is very much about momentum and can seriously drag its feet some games before it gets started.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Yup and that's why I don't pay to play on mtgo anymore. Just don't want to play against tron and get wrecked, because I'm bored of playing burn.
Blood Moon is not enough, when GTron fully expects to, and must, handle Moon to even have a chance. Its like a burn deck without Skull Cracks, just doesnt happen.
There is the reason that Modern event had UW in the top 8 with all those trons.
Spirits
Soooo.... they're just a few MB / SB cards away from adjusting? Play more path, fewer pushes. Play blood moon in SB. More LD? Fulminator mage?
I know no deck can cover every other deck and maybe Tron numbers are low enough in your meta that who ever it is you're crushing doesn't adapt, but it's not like Mardu has no tools.
GREAT point, and something I struggled to come to grips with for a very long time. This is EXACTLY what we have seen in the last month, two months, with the relationship between all the aggro condensing into Humans, the impact it had on Tron, and the upswing of UWR.
This is just how its going to be now, and it certainly appears to be functioning (the meta that is) as curated by Wizards.
Spirits
Except 2 years ago I could consistently beat tron with Rug scapeshift (my favorite archetype is control with a combo finish, I don't like grinding control, it's too slow and boring). But now, there's no way I can do that. Not with any slow deck, not scapeshift, not anything. What has changed since then? What changed is that tron got new toys and rug scapeshift or any other control or combocontrol or midrange deck didn't get any new toys to have a favorable MU against tron.
I also love to brew new decks or brew existing decks to make them better for the current meta, but tron trumps that every time, I just know that I can't brew anything that doesn't pretend to win by t4 if it doesn't have a very good plan vs Tron.
I was super happy when they banned twin and never liked the deck that much, but man, right now, I think it would be my favorite deck since I think it kind of would have a fair tron MU and is not aggro or all-in combo.
I dont know if FoR is too constricting for Scapeshift (I swore off 1 card combo's after Twin died) but it's obviously good enough for some decks to leverage, and Damping Sphere, in a shell that isnt all about the grind, is certainly enough to get you there, assuming of course it isnt Nature's Claimed off the top with a stupid Egg to provide that Green mana, but them's the breaks.
Spirits
FoR (I recognized its huge potential since it got spoiled, people got it after testing it btw, I think I wrote it down in the spoilers thread) doesn't fit in scapeshift and is clunky in 3 color decks. All in all, it's by far not enough to deal with tron. Another way of saying it is that Tron got waaaaay better cards that its competitors. Specially Ugin and ulamog (seriously, 2 permanents not counterable ? wtf?).