Affinity hasn't gotten anything in years. Think about it, when was the last time they got a good new card? Springleaf Drum?
Meanwhile other decks have seriously improved over the years
Things like this is why I think decks like burn and affinity can one day be left behind. I do think one day burn could just become a tier 2.5 deck permeantely. Collective Brutality really hurt that deck as a whole. If SFM ever gets unbanned that deck will need serious restructuring.
Affinity's last real new card was probably Aethergrid, I believe?
Tribal decks in general can be slower to get new cards. Look at how few Merfolk were released until this year.
Humans is an evergreen tribe so that tribe will always see new cards.
I enjoy GBx knowing that the archetype will adopt any individually good cards when power-creep occurs.
Affinity hasn't gotten anything in years. Think about it, when was the last time they got a good new card? Springleaf Drum?
Meanwhile other decks have seriously improved over the years
Things like this is why I think decks like burn and affinity can one day be left behind. I do think one day burn could just become a tier 2.5 deck permeantely. Collective Brutality really hurt that deck as a whole. If SFM ever gets unbanned that deck will need serious restructuring.
Affinity's last real new card was probably Aethergrid, I believe?
Tribal decks in general can be slower to get new cards. Look at how few Merfolk were released until this year.
Humans is an evergreen tribe so that tribe will always see new cards.
I enjoy GBx knowing that the archetype will adopt any individually good cards when power-creep occurs.
Burn always seems to come up whenever either slower strategies are popular or BGx strategies are, since they get themselves weak.
There were a lot of copies of burn at SCG Columbus, which kind of surprised me (I think it was 3rd most represented archtype on day 2). I guess its good vs Tron decks, but I thought that people were over estimating how much big mana there were going to be. Paper events probably always have a good amount of burn due to the low cost in money, but it still was surprising that it was so common tbh
I still think Storm is one of the 2-3 secret (not so secret) best decks. I also still think a DS and Tron deck are also up there in the top 3, but I'm no longer sure it's GDS and ETron specifically. I think most pros will start their testing there and many will stay there.
Lantern is probably the deck where a pro can most leverage their skill to get edges, but it's legit hard to play well. Its "free win" factor is also much less common than in Storm/GDS/Tron. Because of that, I think we won't see a lot of Lantern. I do think a top Lantern player should have a good shot at T8 though.
I think we will see a rise in G/R Tron. Probably wont be that good, but people will be trying out the new card Blood Sun and I can see it best in G/R Tron. So I say be ready for that on MTGO
Also, update of the SCG Open dataset after the Columbus Open. This isn't finalized yet because I noticed an error in the last dataset. I think I mostly fixed the error but I'll need to double check. In summary, SCG standings are sometimes inconsistent between preferred first names. This means that "Brad Nelson" and "Bradley Nelson" show up as distinct players in the dataset. I think I've merged all of these and figured out a better, more dynamic way to track these errors. Hopefully it's solved and not a problem in the future.
Thankfully, the same trend about top Modern/Legacy performance is still true. All numbers below use Approximate Match Win Percentage or AMWP. AMWP is calculated by taking the total number of points earned by a player and dividing it by the total number of possible points they could have earned. So a player who gets 40 points in a 15 round tournament has a maximum number of points equal to 45 and has an AMWP of .88. We can't use GWP or MWP themselves because SCG doesn't report those #s. With that in mind, here are the numbers for all 2017/2018 Modern Opens and all 2016/2017 Legacy Opens.
Avg Modern AMWP: 24.7% Avg Legacy AMWP: 24.9% Top Modern Player AMWP in Modern: 67.9% Top Legacy Player AMWP in Legacy: 68.2%
I'll post more stats and answer any questions later. In summary though, there remains no difference between top performing Modern players in Modern and top performing Legacy players in Legacy. If SCG Opens are any indicator, this still means that either "matchup lottery" in Modern does not exist, that it exists and top players have overcome it consistently, and/or that it exists equally in Legacy/Modern. It's possible Opens aren't an indicator of other event performance, but the picture is so consistent across almost 25 Opens that I doubt it doesn't extrapolate to other event levels.
I think we will see a rise in G/R Tron. Probably wont be that good, but people will be trying out the new card Blood Sun and I can see it best in G/R Tron. So I say be ready for that on MTGO
It stops Ghost Quarter/ Field of Ruin, but it has a super high cost for Tron. If Tron wanted to defeat GQ effects for 3 mana it would just run Crucible of Worlds.
the card itself really isn't worth the card board its printed on...does it serve a purpose? Sure its a blue 1 drop that might not be a 1/1. I would not put it in a list and expect to win a PTQ or GP though.
I think we will see a rise in G/R Tron. Probably wont be that good, but people will be trying out the new card Blood Sun and I can see it best in G/R Tron. So I say be ready for that on MTGO
It stops Ghost Quarter/ Field of Ruin, but it has a super high cost for Tron. If Tron wanted to defeat GQ effects for 3 mana it would just run Crucible of Worlds.
Yeah i just think people are going to be trying out Blood Sun just because its new. It does shut off Fetch Lands though, which is the main benefit probably
I think we will see a rise in G/R Tron. Probably wont be that good, but people will be trying out the new card Blood Sun and I can see it best in G/R Tron. So I say be ready for that on MTGO
It stops Ghost Quarter/ Field of Ruin, but it has a super high cost for Tron. If Tron wanted to defeat GQ effects for 3 mana it would just run Crucible of Worlds.
Blood Sun also replaces itself and hoses opponent fetchlands and Valkut (among others), so it has a wider application. Seems much more playable than Crucible of Worlds which basically lets your recover from a very specific card.
On the topic of pros breaking the format, Hoogland has earmarked Goryo's Vengeance as the deck he thinks pros will break for the PT. As someone who plays Griseldaddy, I do sort of hope for some innovation. I bought some Time of Needs because it seems so almost good in that deck.
THIS 100X!!! If you don't agree with this then there is no amount of logic that will ever convince you that good, non-oppressive, combos should be allowed. If you don't agree with it then just don't play this game, and you certainly shouldn't feel entitled to make any comment on ban lists ever.
On the topic of pros breaking the format, Hoogland has earmarked Goryo's Vengeance as the deck he thinks pros will break for the PT. As someone who plays Griseldaddy, I do sort of hope for some innovation. I bought some Time of Needs because it seems so almost good in that deck.
That seems...an odd choice. Not a deck that's been getting a lot of play, so that'd be a bit out of nowhere. Not impossible, just not where I'd put my money if I were placing a bet. Hoogland's prone to the occasional hyperbole/wild exaggeration.
Please, griselbrand will not break this format without new cards or gds and storm falling out of favor. That's a bold and strange statement for him to make.
I have no idea how to evaluate blood sun. I hope it isn't a powerful tool for RG tron.
I believe storm is a top 3 deck, as well as lantern
I'm pretty certain GDS is the best shadow deck, the other versions are inferior, even if I play them.
On the topic of pros breaking the format, Hoogland has earmarked Goryo's Vengeance as the deck he thinks pros will break for the PT. As someone who plays Griseldaddy, I do sort of hope for some innovation. I bought some Time of Needs because it seems so almost good in that deck.
That seems...an odd choice. Not a deck that's been getting a lot of play, so that'd be a bit out of nowhere. Not impossible, just not where I'd put my money if I were placing a bet. Hoogland's prone to the occasional hyperbole/wild exaggeration.
Oh I know, I think Hoogland is a grade A tool. But I do think there is refinement available yet for the deck and it is certainly doing enough powerful things to be a contender. If anything I hope the PT showcases more than UWR vs GDS vs Storm vs Tron vs Company vs Affinty or whatever that we already know about. I want the innovation to come.
THIS 100X!!! If you don't agree with this then there is no amount of logic that will ever convince you that good, non-oppressive, combos should be allowed. If you don't agree with it then just don't play this game, and you certainly shouldn't feel entitled to make any comment on ban lists ever.
If anything I hope the PT showcases more than UWR vs GDS vs Storm vs Tron vs Company vs Affinty or whatever that we already know about. I want the innovation to come.
This is closer to what I hope for actually. Something like the good days of Jund vs Twin vs Pod vs Affinity.
I dont expect innovation out of Pro's that actively dislike the format.
I think we will see a rise in G/R Tron. Probably wont be that good, but people will be trying out the new card Blood Sun and I can see it best in G/R Tron. So I say be ready for that on MTGO
It stops Ghost Quarter/ Field of Ruin, but it has a super high cost for Tron. If Tron wanted to defeat GQ effects for 3 mana it would just run Crucible of Worlds.
Blood Sun also replaces itself and hoses opponent fetchlands and Valkut (among others), so it has a wider application. Seems much more playable than Crucible of Worlds which basically lets your recover from a very specific card.
Right, but Tron is only trying to interact with the opponent to the degree necessary to keep them from winning. Blood Sun taking a red slows Tron down and makes it more vulnerable to non-land hate like Fulminater Mage. It also shuts down Trons utility lands like their own GQ or Sanctums, and it also means now tron is in red which means it loses the Black splash that made it better against combo decks like storm. And don't forget that cars like Oblivion Stone make permanent based means of control not as strong in Tron.
Please, griselbrand will not break this format without new cards or gds and storm falling out of favor. That's a bold and strange statement for him to make.
I have no idea how to evaluate blood sun. I hope it isn't a powerful tool for RG tron.
I believe storm is a top 3 deck, as well as lantern
I'm pretty certain GDS is the best shadow deck, the other versions are inferior, even if I play them.
I could see it becoming the combo control shell personally. There's something stupidly strong about a control deck with lightning bolts and a card that reads deal 7 damage and draw 7 cards. Not sure if it's on the level of UR breach though since blood moon is a hell of a magic card.
Completely jumping topics, but what would you all keep from matches for a dataset outside of w/d/l, record, and opponent's deck?
Grishoalbrand is a bit too inconsistent. Though powerful things, it does powerful things.
While I tend to agree, it's notable that Amulet was once dubbed as "too inconsistent" until Cohen and Black got their hands on it and made it a monster. A big part of the push for these fringe decks is to get them into the hands of people with the monetary incentive to break them.
THIS 100X!!! If you don't agree with this then there is no amount of logic that will ever convince you that good, non-oppressive, combos should be allowed. If you don't agree with it then just don't play this game, and you certainly shouldn't feel entitled to make any comment on ban lists ever.
Grishoalbrand is a bit too inconsistent. Though powerful things, it does powerful things.
While I tend to agree, it's notable that Amulet was once dubbed as "too inconsistent" until Cohen and Black got their hands on it and made it a monster. A big part of the push for these fringe decks is to get them into the hands of people with the monetary incentive to break them.
And even then it was considered a monster because it got famous. List they played was like almost exactly the same as couple of years earlier when some people played it - after the twelve post ban.
On the topic of pros breaking the format, Hoogland has earmarked Goryo's Vengeance as the deck he thinks pros will break for the PT. As someone who plays Griseldaddy, I do sort of hope for some innovation. I bought some Time of Needs because it seems so almost good in that deck.
That seems...an odd choice. Not a deck that's been getting a lot of play, so that'd be a bit out of nowhere. Not impossible, just not where I'd put my money if I were placing a bet. Hoogland's prone to the occasional hyperbole/wild exaggeration.
Oh I know, I think Hoogland is a grade A tool. But I do think there is refinement available yet for the deck and it is certainly doing enough powerful things to be a contender. If anything I hope the PT showcases more than UWR vs GDS vs Storm vs Tron vs Company vs Affinty or whatever that we already know about. I want the innovation to come.
Unfortunately I think Hoogland has been dropping the opinion ball lately. I have been following him for years, and the last year his opinions on modern have been nothing but an exaggerated rant. He used to have opinions backed up with reason and arguments, now he just says things for the sake of it.
On what the PT shows, to be fair, if these 6 decks that you mentioned are the pillar of the PT that would actually be great. Control vs Midrange vs combo vs big mana vs toolbox vs aggro is a very reasonable meta-game to have. If these are the top 6 decks, the format is in a pretty good spot and it would make for a great PT. The problem is if among these 6 decks you mentioned, there are 3 that are WAY better than the other 3 (and it is possible that that's the case).
If anything I hope the PT showcases more than UWR vs GDS vs Storm vs Tron vs Company vs Affinty or whatever that we already know about. I want the innovation to come.
This is closer to what I hope for actually. Something like the good days of Jund vs Twin vs Pod vs Affinity.
I dont expect innovation out of Pro's that actively dislike the format.
When Tasigur, the Golden Fang and the other delve cards came out, the next pro tour Patrick Chapin brought a deck that, I would say, was the very early precursor to the curent Death's Shadow decks. It revolved around the delv cards at the time (can't remember if Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time were legal) Mishra's Bauble + Thought Scour filling the yard for delve, putting in a Gurmag Angler and protection with Stubborn Denial. This was, of course, before Death's Shadow itself was popular and it was being run in Zoo decks. The big thing, too, was obviously no Fatal Push. Chapin did horribly in the Modern portion of the tournament, but a lot of people were interested in the idea of the deck, so I wouldn't say that there is no innovation at PTs for Modern.
Pts usually will show certain exploits of the format. Best examples were from Birthing Pod and Splinter Twin in the past. But I like this happens, because instead of speculation on data, we get to see what the top players think are the actual strong decks in the format.
Also, as for pros disliking the format, I think this was the case a few years ago, when the format was pretty much just a race format. But pros like LSV has actually said they love modern now, since the format is in such a good place. LSV specifically said it is his favorite format to commentate on for sure, and possibly his favorite to play
If anything I hope the PT showcases more than UWR vs GDS vs Storm vs Tron vs Company vs Affinty or whatever that we already know about. I want the innovation to come.
This is closer to what I hope for actually. Something like the good days of Jund vs Twin vs Pod vs Affinity.
I dont expect innovation out of Pro's that actively dislike the format.
When Tasigur, the Golden Fang and the other delve cards came out, the next pro tour Patrick Chapin brought a deck that, I would say, was the very early precursor to the curent Death's Shadow decks. It revolved around the delv cards at the time (can't remember if Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time were legal) Mishra's Bauble + Thought Scour filling the yard for delve, putting in a Gurmag Angler and protection with Stubborn Denial. This was, of course, before Death's Shadow itself was popular and it was being run in Zoo decks. The big thing, too, was obviously no Fatal Push. Chapin did horribly in the Modern portion of the tournament, but a lot of people were interested in the idea of the deck, so I wouldn't say that there is no innovation at PTs for Modern.
Pts usually will show certain exploits of the format. Best examples were from Birthing Pod and Splinter Twin in the past. But I like this happens, because instead of speculation on data, we get to see what the top players think are the actual strong decks in the format.
Also, as for pros disliking the format, I think this was the case a few years ago, when the format was pretty much just a race format. But pros like LSV has actually said they love modern now, since the format is in such a good place. LSV specifically said it is his favorite format to commentate on for sure, and possibly his favorite to play
I told the same thing some weeks ago to a friend of mine. Chapin was the first one to pseudo-discover two of the three decks that got banned(death's shadow pre-cursor and the ur prowess precursor)
Basically, he has done it again. While we didn't realize it back at the time, he kind of broke the format. The only thing he left out was Death's Shadow.
Later, Gitaxian Probe was banned and everything went back in being normal(DS becoming midrange, etc)
His decks however, didnt quite get there. Innovation I guess, and precursors to the better tuned finished products, but nothing format breaking or defining at the time.
I remember trying similar with Abbot, I really wanted that card to work out.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
UW Spirits
To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
Meanwhile other decks have seriously improved over the years
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
Things like this is why I think decks like burn and affinity can one day be left behind. I do think one day burn could just become a tier 2.5 deck permeantely. Collective Brutality really hurt that deck as a whole. If SFM ever gets unbanned that deck will need serious restructuring.
Affinity's last real new card was probably Aethergrid, I believe?
Tribal decks in general can be slower to get new cards. Look at how few Merfolk were released until this year.
Humans is an evergreen tribe so that tribe will always see new cards.
I enjoy GBx knowing that the archetype will adopt any individually good cards when power-creep occurs.
Burn always seems to come up whenever either slower strategies are popular or BGx strategies are, since they get themselves weak.
There were a lot of copies of burn at SCG Columbus, which kind of surprised me (I think it was 3rd most represented archtype on day 2). I guess its good vs Tron decks, but I thought that people were over estimating how much big mana there were going to be. Paper events probably always have a good amount of burn due to the low cost in money, but it still was surprising that it was so common tbh
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
Tron will make more of a comeback when people forget about it, just like affinity.
What surprises me is how much of a cliff e tron took. The deck is hands down tier 2. What I wonder is if it'll stay there for a long time.
Lantern is probably the deck where a pro can most leverage their skill to get edges, but it's legit hard to play well. Its "free win" factor is also much less common than in Storm/GDS/Tron. Because of that, I think we won't see a lot of Lantern. I do think a top Lantern player should have a good shot at T8 though.
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
Thankfully, the same trend about top Modern/Legacy performance is still true. All numbers below use Approximate Match Win Percentage or AMWP. AMWP is calculated by taking the total number of points earned by a player and dividing it by the total number of possible points they could have earned. So a player who gets 40 points in a 15 round tournament has a maximum number of points equal to 45 and has an AMWP of .88. We can't use GWP or MWP themselves because SCG doesn't report those #s. With that in mind, here are the numbers for all 2017/2018 Modern Opens and all 2016/2017 Legacy Opens.
Avg Modern AMWP: 24.7%
Avg Legacy AMWP: 24.9%
Top Modern Player AMWP in Modern: 67.9%
Top Legacy Player AMWP in Legacy: 68.2%
I'll post more stats and answer any questions later. In summary though, there remains no difference between top performing Modern players in Modern and top performing Legacy players in Legacy. If SCG Opens are any indicator, this still means that either "matchup lottery" in Modern does not exist, that it exists and top players have overcome it consistently, and/or that it exists equally in Legacy/Modern. It's possible Opens aren't an indicator of other event performance, but the picture is so consistent across almost 25 Opens that I doubt it doesn't extrapolate to other event levels.
It stops Ghost Quarter/ Field of Ruin, but it has a super high cost for Tron. If Tron wanted to defeat GQ effects for 3 mana it would just run Crucible of Worlds.
Counter-Cat
Colorless Eldrazi Stompy
Yeah i just think people are going to be trying out Blood Sun just because its new. It does shut off Fetch Lands though, which is the main benefit probably
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
Blood Sun also replaces itself and hoses opponent fetchlands and Valkut (among others), so it has a wider application. Seems much more playable than Crucible of Worlds which basically lets your recover from a very specific card.
That seems...an odd choice. Not a deck that's been getting a lot of play, so that'd be a bit out of nowhere. Not impossible, just not where I'd put my money if I were placing a bet. Hoogland's prone to the occasional hyperbole/wild exaggeration.
I have no idea how to evaluate blood sun. I hope it isn't a powerful tool for RG tron.
I believe storm is a top 3 deck, as well as lantern
I'm pretty certain GDS is the best shadow deck, the other versions are inferior, even if I play them.
Oh I know, I think Hoogland is a grade A tool. But I do think there is refinement available yet for the deck and it is certainly doing enough powerful things to be a contender. If anything I hope the PT showcases more than UWR vs GDS vs Storm vs Tron vs Company vs Affinty or whatever that we already know about. I want the innovation to come.
This is closer to what I hope for actually. Something like the good days of Jund vs Twin vs Pod vs Affinity.
I dont expect innovation out of Pro's that actively dislike the format.
Spirits
Right, but Tron is only trying to interact with the opponent to the degree necessary to keep them from winning. Blood Sun taking a red slows Tron down and makes it more vulnerable to non-land hate like Fulminater Mage. It also shuts down Trons utility lands like their own GQ or Sanctums, and it also means now tron is in red which means it loses the Black splash that made it better against combo decks like storm. And don't forget that cars like Oblivion Stone make permanent based means of control not as strong in Tron.
I could see it becoming the combo control shell personally. There's something stupidly strong about a control deck with lightning bolts and a card that reads deal 7 damage and draw 7 cards. Not sure if it's on the level of UR breach though since blood moon is a hell of a magic card.
Completely jumping topics, but what would you all keep from matches for a dataset outside of w/d/l, record, and opponent's deck?
Spirits
While I tend to agree, it's notable that Amulet was once dubbed as "too inconsistent" until Cohen and Black got their hands on it and made it a monster. A big part of the push for these fringe decks is to get them into the hands of people with the monetary incentive to break them.
And even then it was considered a monster because it got famous. List they played was like almost exactly the same as couple of years earlier when some people played it - after the twelve post ban.
Modern
WUBRG
On what the PT shows, to be fair, if these 6 decks that you mentioned are the pillar of the PT that would actually be great. Control vs Midrange vs combo vs big mana vs toolbox vs aggro is a very reasonable meta-game to have. If these are the top 6 decks, the format is in a pretty good spot and it would make for a great PT. The problem is if among these 6 decks you mentioned, there are 3 that are WAY better than the other 3 (and it is possible that that's the case).
UB Faeries (15-6-0)
UWR Control (10-5-1)/Kiki Control/Midrange/Harbinger
UBR Cruel Control (6-4-0)/Grixis Control/Delver/Blue Jund
UWB Control/Mentor
UW Miracles/Control (currently active, 14-2-0)
BW Eldrazi & Taxes
RW Burn (9-1-0)
I do (academic) research on video games and archaeology! You can check out my open access book here: https://www.sidestone.com/books/the-interactive-past
When Tasigur, the Golden Fang and the other delve cards came out, the next pro tour Patrick Chapin brought a deck that, I would say, was the very early precursor to the curent Death's Shadow decks. It revolved around the delv cards at the time (can't remember if Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time were legal) Mishra's Bauble + Thought Scour filling the yard for delve, putting in a Gurmag Angler and protection with Stubborn Denial. This was, of course, before Death's Shadow itself was popular and it was being run in Zoo decks. The big thing, too, was obviously no Fatal Push. Chapin did horribly in the Modern portion of the tournament, but a lot of people were interested in the idea of the deck, so I wouldn't say that there is no innovation at PTs for Modern.
Pts usually will show certain exploits of the format. Best examples were from Birthing Pod and Splinter Twin in the past. But I like this happens, because instead of speculation on data, we get to see what the top players think are the actual strong decks in the format.
Also, as for pros disliking the format, I think this was the case a few years ago, when the format was pretty much just a race format. But pros like LSV has actually said they love modern now, since the format is in such a good place. LSV specifically said it is his favorite format to commentate on for sure, and possibly his favorite to play
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
They don't call him "The Innovator" for nothing!
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
I remember trying similar with Abbot, I really wanted that card to work out.
Spirits