Except that's a testimony for modern as a I do me you do you and we see who wins. Both of those decks are very low interaction based. PPTQ's aren't that large of a tournament so they are actually sometimes easier to meta game than just playing your 1 deck you've had forever.
Could just be the way I look at it with my experience. I've been playing this game for long before I even knew about these forums or you could just go net deck something quick. I know most modern decks more than well enough to just grab it sit down with it and play.
I've played Bogles for for over a year. I've played Grishoalbrand for around 1 year. The first PPTQ I won with Bogles had 73 players. In the first round, I was paired against Twin - the bane of my existence. Sure there were worse matchups like Ad Nauseam, Living End, or Bloom Titan, but I did not run into those as often as the dreaded Twin. I knew that I have hardly any chance to win, but I know what needs to happen in order to win. I won that round 2-0, the only time I've ever done that to Twin (usually losing 1-2). I drew well throughout the tournament, but in the top 4, I ran against Jund. After losing game 1, I had before the game Leyline of Sanctity for the 1st and 2nd times ever in games 2 and 3 to win those games. Granted, I had never had Leyline before the game, playing the deck for 6 months at the time with the full playset. Beating Twin and getting a good card for the first time in a matchup were signs that I was drawing well. I beat the Affinity player that had beaten me in the Swiss in the finals, every game going to the person playing first except the final game of the tournament, in which I won on the draw. I wouldn't say it was so much metagaming, as just being lucky and knowing how to play my deck very well.
I've played this game for way too long as well. And 8 years ago, I forced myself to learn to play archetypes other than Control. I've become a more well rounded player and actually play a lot of different decks, but for the most part I've STILL done better with decks that I played longer.
1. Bogles - over a year
2. Grishoalbrand - a year
3. RUG Scapeshift - 4 months
4. Pyromancer Storm - 3 months
These are all the decks that I've had the highest win percentage with (or pretty close to it in the case of Scapeshift and Storm). I've actually been too scared to try Grixis Death's Shadow or Knightfall at a PPTQ, despite the fact that I play them all the time outside of one. I just know that there's no way that I play those as well as I can play Titan Shift right now and Titan Shift is well placed in the meta.
I guess you could say my point is this. You don't have to win all 3 to win a PPTQ or other tournament. Sometimes it just takes 2 of them.
1. Metagaming
2. Luck
3. Skill in playing your deck
I actually lost the metagaming point that day with Bogles.
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Literally every player in every event needs a little luck in dodging bad matchups to make top 8. That's inevitable, especially if there's more than a couple dozen participants. I think it's poisoning the well to take that top 8 and give every single deck an excuse that almost says "no, I know there were six unique decks but really it should have been eight grixis shadow, except this one thing happened..."
That's why it has been said many times that modern rewards understanding your deck as opposed to trying to metagame.
I agree to an extent but honestly good modern players can play most decks really well. I play a lot of different decks and sure I could pick up a few percentage points just grinding 1 but I think those same points if not more can be picked up just making sure you have a better deck for the meta.
To an extent. I've played in 3 Modern PPTQ seasons and around 5 Standard ones. Here's how it went.
For Modern, I got the RPTQ invite all 3 seasons very easily with Bogles twice and Grishoalbrand once.
For Standard and Limited, I didn't get in once. I got a lot of top 8s, especially in Sealed, despite never practicing those Sealed formats, but was very overmatched in the top 8 each time. For Standard, which I hate with a passion, I top 8ed 2 out of 6 times, even though I practiced a little at FNM and Game Day and crushed there. I will admit for Standard though that I only tried 3-4 PPTQs per season, so I could have tried harder.
So you can see why my bias is that it helps "to an extent." Just because you play one deck well doesn't mean you automatically pick up a deck and play it well. I know that Todd Stevens is a better player than myself. But I also know that I play Cheerios better than he does, just by watching his stream. Nobody plays White based Aggro like Craig Wescoe, but I'm sure there are players here that play Control better than Craig Wescoe.
My experience is the complete opposite, I do much better in Standard than I do in Modern simply because Standard sometimes intentionally has decks that have very few to no negative matchups. Metagaming is much easier to do in Standard than it is Modern because there are less viable decks in Standard than Modern. My success in Modern really depends on my pairings during swiss and my dice roll results. I simply cannot justify the amount of work to reward ratio in learning a deck in Modern as I cannot turn a perceived 80/20 matchup (ie. Burn vs Martyr Proc as an example) into a favorable one for me with extreme amounts of dedication, the incentives simply don't exist. I can simply do less work in Standard for the same amount of reward, it just requires an upkeep every 3 months because Standard. There is no Modern deck in the format where I can say "This deck has no bad matchups or very few bad matchups all the time". Those decks get banned out of existence because it makes the masses feel better that their deck can win a GP if they get lucky enough. That's why Gold/Platinum level pros get slaughtered by randoms at Modern GP feature match tables, the tools simply don't exist to build a deck of 75 cards to beat all strategies. But that's ok, because it gives the random person running extremely well the feel-goods that I can beat a strong Pro Tour level player just due to the nature of the format.
Except that's a testimony for modern as a I do me you do you and we see who wins. Both of those decks are very low interaction based. PPTQ's aren't that large of a tournament so they are actually sometimes easier to meta game than just playing your 1 deck you've had forever.
Could just be the way I look at it with my experience. I've been playing this game for long before I even knew about these forums or you could just go net deck something quick. I know most modern decks more than well enough to just grab it sit down with it and play.
I've played Bogles for for over a year. I've played Grishoalbrand for around 1 year. The first PPTQ I won with Bogles had 73 players. In the first round, I was paired against Twin - the bane of my existence. Sure there were worse matchups like Ad Nauseam, Living End, or Bloom Titan, but I did not run into those as often as the dreaded Twin. I knew that I have hardly any chance to win, but I know what needs to happen in order to win. I won that round 2-0, the only time I've ever done that to Twin (usually losing 1-2). I drew well throughout the tournament, but in the top 4, I ran against Jund. After losing game 1, I had before the game Leyline of Sanctity for the 1st and 2nd times ever in games 2 and 3 to win those games. Granted, I had never had Leyline before the game, playing the deck for 6 months at the time with the full playset. Beating Twin and getting a good card for the first time in a matchup were signs that I was drawing well. I beat the Affinity player that had beaten me in the Swiss in the finals, every game going to the person playing first except the final game of the tournament, in which I won on the draw. I wouldn't say it was so much metagaming, as just being lucky and knowing how to play my deck very well.
I've played this game for way too long as well. And 8 years ago, I forced myself to learn to play archetypes other than Control. I've become a more well rounded player and actually play a lot of different decks, but for the most part I've STILL done better with decks that I played longer.
1. Bogles - over a year
2. Grishoalbrand - a year
3. RUG Scapeshift - 4 months
4. Pyromancer Storm - 3 months
These are all the decks that I've had the highest win percentage with (or pretty close to it in the case of Scapeshift and Storm). I've actually been too scared to try Grixis Death's Shadow or Knightfall at a PPTQ, despite the fact that I play them all the time outside of one. I just know that there's no way that I play those as well as I can play Titan Shift right now and Titan Shift is well placed in the meta.
I guess you could say my point is this. You don't have to win all 3 to win a PPTQ or other tournament. Sometimes it just takes 2 of them.
1. Metagaming
2. Luck
3. Skill in playing your deck
I actually lost the metagaming point that day with Bogles.
Yeah but you can go into the event with 1 and 3 both in your favor. You don't have to play boogles when you know it's a dog to most of the meta when you are/could be well versed in a better option. From your example it sounds like mostly luck was involved (not saying anything about your skill level at all) but you can't go into an event planning to be lucky (unless you're lsv). Just because it was a success doesn't mean there wasn't a better option.
Yeah but you can go into the event with 1 and 3 both in your favor. You don't have to play boogles when you know it's a dog to most of the meta when you are/could be well versed in a better option. From your example it sounds like mostly luck was involved (not saying anything about your skill level at all) but you can't go into an event planning to be lucky (unless you're lsv). Just because it was a success doesn't mean there wasn't a better option.
I often wonder this. I could have just grinded Twin since the beginning of Modern and my results probably would have been better. Part of the reason why I didn't was because I actively wanted to prove that other decks could win and prove to myself that I could win with a "lesser" deck. But in a pure competitive standpoint, I will admit that I was doing myself a disservice. It's very hard to balance my Spike side, which needs to win to feel good, and my Timmy side, which wants to play decks that I enjoy. It's tough because I'm probably about 60/40 Spike/Timmy. I completely agree with what you said here.
Metagame wise for Bogles, it never felt like a dog to many decks. Here's why. Burn was good. I won't say it's more than 55/45, but it was good. Pod decks were around 60/40, although Company decks after Pod was banned turned it to 40/60 unbelievably. Twin was bad. Bloom, Living End, and Ad Nauseam were decks that I just hoped to avoid and just NOT see at X-0 tables. Bogles is incredibly good against decks trying to win the creature combat battle. You can't beat those in combat, normally. Affinity was very good for me, probably around 65/35. Now I'll get to BGx. I've seen it proclaimed as a terrible matchup, but I'll say this. I ran 2 Dryad Arbor and 8-9 fetches. My overall record when I retired Bogles against BGx was 78-42 in matches (most at Comp REL), and was much better until around my last 20 matches, where I was 10-10. Players who just read stuff that Bogles loses to BGx because they discard you and Liliana of the Veil sacrifice your only creature you can ever draw are the type of players who don't want to get better. I actively tried to make Bogles better against certain decks in the meta. Against Twin, I failed. Against Combo decks, I failed. But I succeeded vs. BGx and I am VERY proud to have such a record against them, although saddened by how bad it got right before I retired Bogles. Sorry, I am a Bogles player at heart. I will stick up for my deck, but at the same time, I try to be reasonable and honest.
My experience is the complete opposite, I do much better in Standard than I do in Modern simply because Standard sometimes intentionally has decks that have very few to no negative matchups. Metagaming is much easier to do in Standard than it is Modern because there are less viable decks in Standard than Modern. My success in Modern really depends on my pairings during swiss and my dice roll results. I simply cannot justify the amount of work to reward ratio in learning a deck in Modern as I cannot turn a perceived 80/20 matchup (ie. Burn vs Martyr Proc as an example) into a favorable one for me with extreme amounts of dedication, the incentives simply don't exist. I can simply do less work in Standard for the same amount of reward, it just requires an upkeep every 3 months because Standard. There is no Modern deck in the format where I can say "This deck has no bad matchups or very few bad matchups all the time". Those decks get banned out of existence because it makes the masses feel better that their deck can win a GP if they get lucky enough. That's why Gold/Platinum level pros get slaughtered by randoms at Modern GP feature match tables, the tools simply don't exist to build a deck of 75 cards to beat all strategies. But that's ok, because it gives the random person running extremely well the feel-goods that I can beat a strong Pro Tour level player just due to the nature of the format.
- I agree that Standard is easier to do well in. There certainly are fewer decks to prepare for. That can't be reasonably argued. I actually didn't put time into Standard much because I didn't care. I just wanted to spike a tournament because of the strength of my deck - 1 top 8 with Combo Cat and 1 with Marvel. My point for KTrojan was just that play skill in a format doesn't necessarily transfer over completely to another format. You still have to practice. And I appreciate you giving your own experience as well. These are the types of things I like seeing here. It gives me much more insight to other player's experiences.
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Except that's a testimony for modern as a I do me you do you and we see who wins. Both of those decks are very low interaction based. PPTQ's aren't that large of a tournament so they are actually sometimes easier to meta game than just playing your 1 deck you've had forever.
Could just be the way I look at it with my experience. I've been playing this game for long before I even knew about these forums or you could just go net deck something quick. I know most modern decks more than well enough to just grab it sit down with it and play.
I've played Bogles for for over a year. I've played Grishoalbrand for around 1 year. The first PPTQ I won with Bogles had 73 players. In the first round, I was paired against Twin - the bane of my existence. Sure there were worse matchups like Ad Nauseam, Living End, or Bloom Titan, but I did not run into those as often as the dreaded Twin. I knew that I have hardly any chance to win, but I know what needs to happen in order to win. I won that round 2-0, the only time I've ever done that to Twin (usually losing 1-2). I drew well throughout the tournament, but in the top 4, I ran against Jund. After losing game 1, I had before the game Leyline of Sanctity for the 1st and 2nd times ever in games 2 and 3 to win those games. Granted, I had never had Leyline before the game, playing the deck for 6 months at the time with the full playset. Beating Twin and getting a good card for the first time in a matchup were signs that I was drawing well. I beat the Affinity player that had beaten me in the Swiss in the finals, every game going to the person playing first except the final game of the tournament, in which I won on the draw. I wouldn't say it was so much metagaming, as just being lucky and knowing how to play my deck very well.
I've played this game for way too long as well. And 8 years ago, I forced myself to learn to play archetypes other than Control. I've become a more well rounded player and actually play a lot of different decks, but for the most part I've STILL done better with decks that I played longer.
1. Bogles - over a year
2. Grishoalbrand - a year
3. RUG Scapeshift - 4 months
4. Pyromancer Storm - 3 months
These are all the decks that I've had the highest win percentage with (or pretty close to it in the case of Scapeshift and Storm). I've actually been too scared to try Grixis Death's Shadow or Knightfall at a PPTQ, despite the fact that I play them all the time outside of one. I just know that there's no way that I play those as well as I can play Titan Shift right now and Titan Shift is well placed in the meta.
I guess you could say my point is this. You don't have to win all 3 to win a PPTQ or other tournament. Sometimes it just takes 2 of them.
1. Metagaming
2. Luck
3. Skill in playing your deck
I actually lost the metagaming point that day with Bogles.
Also worth noting: just because FCG played linear decks does not mean the format is too linear. We talk about sample sizes a lot here with tournament results, and there's room for discussion. One guy playing two decks that are linear is not representative of an entire format though. No debate there.
Oh most definitely. If the metas where I played were very linear, I wouldn't enjoy playing those decks. I don't actually like playing linear vs. linear. I noticed that in a lot of local places, players shied away from these types of decks, so it drew me to them. I enjoy playing Combo type decks vs. Midrange or Control for the most part. Aggro is okay too, but I don't enjoy both of us racing to combo quicker, even if other types of decks are racing too, just in a different way.
Some evidence of how I feel. I played UR Storm for a bit during Extended. Losing only half of the mirrors I faced left me out of the Top 8, although I honestly can't remember if it was 2-2 or 3-3. This really sucked to me.
More evidence. There is a very linear meta where I don't do well with many decks. I literally have to bring something like Little Kid Abzan to do well there, at least recently. I'm 11-1 with Little Kid there, even though I don't enjoy the deck much, and this is despite not being paired against as many Burn/Rack players as I would like to.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Except that's a testimony for modern as a I do me you do you and we see who wins. Both of those decks are very low interaction based. PPTQ's aren't that large of a tournament so they are actually sometimes easier to meta game than just playing your 1 deck you've had forever.
Could just be the way I look at it with my experience. I've been playing this game for long before I even knew about these forums or you could just go net deck something quick. I know most modern decks more than well enough to just grab it sit down with it and play.
I've played Bogles for for over a year. I've played Grishoalbrand for around 1 year. The first PPTQ I won with Bogles had 73 players. In the first round, I was paired against Twin - the bane of my existence. Sure there were worse matchups like Ad Nauseam, Living End, or Bloom Titan, but I did not run into those as often as the dreaded Twin. I knew that I have hardly any chance to win, but I know what needs to happen in order to win. I won that round 2-0, the only time I've ever done that to Twin (usually losing 1-2). I drew well throughout the tournament, but in the top 4, I ran against Jund. After losing game 1, I had before the game Leyline of Sanctity for the 1st and 2nd times ever in games 2 and 3 to win those games. Granted, I had never had Leyline before the game, playing the deck for 6 months at the time with the full playset. Beating Twin and getting a good card for the first time in a matchup were signs that I was drawing well. I beat the Affinity player that had beaten me in the Swiss in the finals, every game going to the person playing first except the final game of the tournament, in which I won on the draw. I wouldn't say it was so much metagaming, as just being lucky and knowing how to play my deck very well.
I've played this game for way too long as well. And 8 years ago, I forced myself to learn to play archetypes other than Control. I've become a more well rounded player and actually play a lot of different decks, but for the most part I've STILL done better with decks that I played longer.
1. Bogles - over a year
2. Grishoalbrand - a year
3. RUG Scapeshift - 4 months
4. Pyromancer Storm - 3 months
These are all the decks that I've had the highest win percentage with (or pretty close to it in the case of Scapeshift and Storm). I've actually been too scared to try Grixis Death's Shadow or Knightfall at a PPTQ, despite the fact that I play them all the time outside of one. I just know that there's no way that I play those as well as I can play Titan Shift right now and Titan Shift is well placed in the meta.
I guess you could say my point is this. You don't have to win all 3 to win a PPTQ or other tournament. Sometimes it just takes 2 of them.
1. Metagaming
2. Luck
3. Skill in playing your deck
I actually lost the metagaming point that day with Bogles.
Also worth noting: just because FCG played linear decks does not mean the format is too linear. We talk about sample sizes a lot here with tournament results, and there's room for discussion. One guy playing two decks that are linear is not representative of an entire format though. No debate there.
I wasn't trying to imply the format is too anything. Just that in modern sometimes you can just do you and get wins. I meant nothing bad by it just simply saying some decks like that you can pick up for a couple games and play to 85% of the lines well. I play all variants too that's the joy sometimes. I always play modern after work so when I'm just drained I much prefer playing a deck I win or lose with in the first 3ish turns.
My heart died a little when Brian Coval on Starcity said it's better to meta-game then specialize in modern; although he advocated for specializing in legacy.
I hated it, but I think he's right. As long as you play on mtgo/play-test with your group, you can get a pretty good grasp on a deck with grinding. I think you gain more points edging out the right meta than playing a deck for 2 years straight.
I mean, knowing your deck is incredibly important, but I think knowing every major deck in the format will serve you more.
My heart died a little when Brian Coval on Starcity said it's better to meta-game then specialize in modern; although he advocated for specializing in legacy.
I hated it, but I think he's right. As long as you play on mtgo/play-test with your group, you can get a pretty good grasp on a deck with grinding. I think you gain more points edging out the right meta than playing a deck for 2 years straight.
I mean, knowing your deck is incredibly important, but I think knowing every major deck in the format will serve you more.
I agree with this approach at a PT or an Invitational, where metas are more predictable, but disagree with it for an Open or GP. Metagames are not knowable at that level, and you will often encounter lots of Day 1 matches that fall outside of meta expectations. That's where deck knowledge comes into play and helps you navigate matchups you didn't expect and can't consistently metagame.
Of course, if you are really, really good at predicting the metagame and can do that at big events, then go for it. Most players will misread it, however, so it's better to go with a deck you know
That said, your deck of choice should be generally playable against the top-tier decks. For example, if you're a huge underdog to BOTH E-Tron and GDS, that's going to be a problem.
Going by MTGgoldfish, E-Tron is no longer the second best deck in the format, it's presence really pushed Titanshift
I've been playing E-Tron the past few weeks, I still think it's secretly the best deck in the format while Grixis Shadow takes all the heat (by heat I mean decks aiming to beat it). The fact the mana-base is so difficult to attack because of temples and tron lands is brutal, mana-screw isn't really a thing, and the deck really breaks the color-pie, it seems like the only thing the 75 can't handle is AD Naus and Titanshift variants.
Loving the deck, jund player adapting and playing the better midrange deck.
Will never make the mistake of foiling out a modern deck again though.
My heart died a little when Brian Coval on Starcity said it's better to meta-game then specialize in modern; although he advocated for specializing in legacy.
I hated it, but I think he's right. As long as you play on mtgo/play-test with your group, you can get a pretty good grasp on a deck with grinding. I think you gain more points edging out the right meta than playing a deck for 2 years straight.
I mean, knowing your deck is incredibly important, but I think knowing every major deck in the format will serve you more.
I agree with this approach at a PT or an Invitational, where metas are more predictable, but disagree with it for an Open or GP. Metagames are not knowable at that level, and you will often encounter lots of Day 1 matches that fall outside of meta expectations. That's where deck knowledge comes into play and helps you navigate matchups you didn't expect and can't consistently metagame.
Of course, if you are really, really good at predicting the metagame and can do that at big events, then go for it. Most players will misread it, however, so it's better to go with a deck you know
That said, your deck of choice should be generally playable against the top-tier decks. For example, if you're a huge underdog to BOTH E-Tron and GDS, that's going to be a problem.
I think you can meta game a open or a gp but not the first few rounds or maybe just not day 1. The biggest hurdle is going to be getting past the jank, but once you do You can expect certain decks to be present at the top tables. Granted this is way easier with byes. We have kinda already seen this with Todd Stevens and his gw coco deck
I've been championing GBw Elves, and truthfully I feel that grinding out a deck makes you just a better pilot in the Modern format.
What I will say after leaving my comfort zone of the Modern format, is that I have learnt quite a few things;
1. If you can't reasonably seal the game by turn 4-5, it's probably not a good enough deck for Modern.
2. If your deck doesn't have enough synergy and critical mass, your deck folds to Eldrazi Tron and Grixis Shadow (the current police decks in my mind)
3. You need to play a deck that has enough consistency with the rounds you play, for example if your deck losses to itself 1/4 rounds, you don't want to play it in a 10 round tournament.
These symptoms I believe are better than what we have faced as a community in the past. I still feel some unbans help aid the situation. I still advocate for Bloodbraid Elf and Stoneforge Mystic as unbans, especially since we have recently changed how Split cards work.
If I remember correctly from Todd Stevens article, his record with the GW Company itself wasn't that amazing, his teammates were just absolutely dominating, I think it was the finals itself he performed well.
You're right that in the first few turns you could see all sorts of jank, you could be playing the top deck and lose against some junk standard-like deck.
I've been championing GBw Elves, and truthfully I feel that grinding out a deck makes you just a better pilot in the Modern format.
What I will say after leaving my comfort zone of the Modern format, is that I have learnt quite a few things;
1. If you can't reasonably seal the game by turn 4-5, it's probably not a good enough deck for Modern.
2. If your deck doesn't have enough synergy and critical mass, your deck folds to Eldrazi Tron and Grixis Shadow (the current police decks in my mind)
3. You need to play a deck that has enough consistency with the rounds you play, for example if your deck losses to itself 1/4 rounds, you don't want to play it in a 10 round tournament.
These symptoms I believe are better than what we have faced as a community in the past. I still feel some unbans help aid the situation. I still advocate for Bloodbraid Elf and Stoneforge Mystic as unbans, especially since we have recently changed how Split cards work.
MTGO really helped step my game up. I can afford to do all sorts of dumb mistakes on there and reflect on my mess ups. It also helps me recognize all sorts of decks or up and coming decks being popularized.
After playing with enough E-Tron and Grixis Shadow, I think I feel confident enough saying Junk and Jund are not good enough midrange decks now, they could definitely use BBE and SFM, but they aren't necessarily entitled to it. I'd be more than happy to see those two cards unbanned. I'm not sure what kind of meta it would take to see GBx return to prominence, it would have to be creature heavy and dominate E-Tron and Shadow.
Blue decks are really surging in popularity, I'm seeing a lot of players on fair blue decks in multiple LGS and on MTGO, they're pretty solid, too.
I'm fortunate enough to be in Philly with a huge modern crowd, meta is wide open
Too much hate for Grixis Shadow for me though, I don't think I'm skilled enough to play that deck and over-come the hate. I'm glad the best deck in modern is difficult and non-intuitive, I'll gladly accept that as the king.
I still don't get the unbans. We have grindy interactive decks at the top of the format. Why do they need to be supplanted by Jund or Abzan running BBE or SFM? I played a four round modern event last night and played UW control twice, Abzan once, and finally Grixis Delver. I looked around, and granted out of about thirty people I barely saw Affinity, Valakut, maybe two burn decks, and myself on Storm. My real question: how does the format improve with BBE, SFM, or JTMS unbans?
BlueTron, thats unusual. I haven't seen pairings like that in multiple stores or MTGO. The fact you barely saw the top decks is weird too, last night the top winners were, in no order
Affinity, E-Tron, Burn, Grixis Death Shadow and some kind of Blue control deck, seemed fairly representative of the format.
BBE really only serves Jund, and possibly a Temur build. I don't think Jund ever looks bad in a meta, it keeps some combo decks and creature aggro/creature combo decks honest. I think it looks good on camera and always serves as fun viewership and play for the format as a whole.
SFM just makes blue and white good again, pushes Abzan to punish shadow players furthers, puts another grindy interactive deck in the meta.
I concede that for now UW Control and Jeskai are solid decks though. I still think white as a whole sucks though, but with Mono white DnT also at the top, it's hard to fight tooth and nail for an SFM unban. I mean, those two archetypes have sucked as a whole for 2 years until this meta though.
I still don't get the unbans. We have grindy interactive decks at the top of the format. Why do they need to be supplanted by Jund or Abzan running BBE or SFM? I played a four round modern event last night and played UW control twice, Abzan once, and finally Grixis Delver. I looked around, and granted out of about thirty people I barely saw Affinity, Valakut, maybe two burn decks, and myself on Storm. My real question: how does the format improve with BBE, SFM, or JTMS unbans?
By achieving a modern format goal of `the smallest banlist possible` by removing the cards that don`t belong on the banlist. The format improves because the cards are strong enough to be close the the top level seeing play in the format, without being better than what is already going on in the format. If you think that SFM is dangerous, remember that Ancestral Vision was also depicted by many as the end of Jund and dangerous for the meta. That proved to be a massive overestimation: the card was strong enough to find its way into decks that needed the effect, while not being strong enough to supplant other strong cards in their respective strategies. Most people advocating SFM/BBE/JTMS believe the impact on the format will be similar to bitterblossom or ancestral vision: they will expand the archtypes with cards strong enough to see play, not decrease it. A card having been a boogeyman-of-standard-past does not really mean much for it's ability to dominate modern.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern Decks
KnightfallGWUR
Azorius Control UW
Burn RBG
I don't think JTMS should ever be unbanned. Do I think it is too strong for Modern? No. However....
The problem with unbanning JTMS is the price of the card. At the time of writing the cheapest English copy of the card is the EMA version at $75 each (SCG). If you unban JTMS that price will skyrocket from hundreds of thousands of people now wanting playsets of the card to play in their Modern decks. Let's assume that JTMS's price spikes similar to that of Golgari Grave-Troll when it was unbanned (I am being nice, and not using the much more likely price spike of Ancestral Vision as a comparison). Before it was unbanned GGT was $1.50. After being unbanned it immediately spiked to $8, and had an all time high of $14 before being added once again to the Modern Ban List. Currently GGT's price is down to about $5.
So upon being unbanned GGT's price increased by about 500%. If the same happens with JTMS, suddenly it goes from a $75 card to a $375 card, with playsets costing players $1,500. If the trend continues the same, JTMS's all time high price could reach $675 or around 900% It's initial price (again similar to the spikes with GGT).
Now imagine being a player who just spent $1,500 on four cards for your deck. First of all, with that kind of cash you could just buy an entirely separate Modern deck, hell maybe even 2 or 3 of them. How do you feel when Wizards goes, "Well unbanning JTMS was a mistake, we need to add him back to the Ban List." $1,500 down the drain. In a best case scenario JTMS tanks in the same was that GGT did and at the end of the day it's price will be around $225 each. But you'd still be out $150 for each copy of JTMS you bought in this instance.
In conclusion, even though I know my numbers are crazy (they were made deliberately crazy to prove a point, but imagine if they were closer to the numbers of the Ancestral Vision spike where it jumped from an $8 card to $50 (625% increase), the correlation back to JTMS would be a price tag of $470)the fact is that if this were to happen it would literally kill Modern as a format. So many people would leave Modern from pure distaste and anger that in my opinion the format would be completely ruined.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern Decks: UBG Lantern Control GBU BRG Bridge-Vine GRB
Commander Decks UBG Muldrotha, Value Elemental GBU BRG Windgrace Real-Estate Ltd. GRB
#PayThePros
Price point does not equal a cards right to be legal or not
I think you're getting ahead of yourself saying it'd go up to a 300 dollar card, it's been printed a few times
That being said, I do not believe Jace should come off, the card is just a massive risk in every sense. If Jace needed to be rebanned, players would be incredibly angry and disgusted, and they'd definitely lose players from the game as a whole.
Price point does not equal a cards right to be legal or not
I think you're getting ahead of yourself saying it'd go up to a 300 dollar card, it's been printed a few times
That being said, I do not believe Jace should not come off, the card is just a massive risk in every sense. If Jace needed to be rebanned, players would be incredibly angry and disgusted, and they'd definitely lose players from the game as a whole.
Please note that I intentionally made my numbers ridiculous to make a point I say so in my post if you actually read the whole thing.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern Decks: UBG Lantern Control GBU BRG Bridge-Vine GRB
Commander Decks UBG Muldrotha, Value Elemental GBU BRG Windgrace Real-Estate Ltd. GRB
#PayThePros
I think Jace is too good for modern. I know that's an unpopular opinion here, but it's my opinion. It is repeatable brainstorm in a fetchland format which is just insane card advantage and filtering, it protects itself, and eventually wins the game. Anyone who has played with the card knows how incredibly powerful it is. A deck built to abuse it would be crazy good. Enough removal and cheap countermagic to live to cast it, then win the game with it.
If they ever did unbanned it though, it would have to coincide with a high print run reprint to counteract the price spike. Otherwise, people would quit Modern before even trying to buy it.
And @spsiegel1987, sure, in a perfect world price would never be a factor in a banlist. But WOTC is invested in keeping people playing the game, and the price of JTMS would drive people out of the game if it was unbanned. So in the imperfect world where we actually live, the price of JTMS excludes it from basically ever being unbanned.
The rules update was the rules of this topic, not the banlist or anything. The big change is that discussion of Twin is banned.
Marath, Will of the Wild Tokens!! / Karrthus, Tyrant of Jund Dragons! / Muzzio, Visionary Architect / Brago, King Eternal / Daretti, Scrap Savant / Narset, Enlightened Master / Alesha, Who Smiles at Death / Bruna, Light of Alabaster / Marchesa, the Black Rose / Iroas, God of Victory / Freyalise, Llanowar's Fury / Omnath, Locus of rage / Titania, Protector of Argoth / Kozilek, the Great Distortion
Modern
Elves / Titanshift / Merfolk
Fixed that for you
Modern Decks:
UBG Lantern Control GBU
BRG Bridge-Vine GRB
Commander Decks
UBG Muldrotha, Value Elemental GBU
BRG Windgrace Real-Estate Ltd. GRB
#PayThePros
Thanks
Marath, Will of the Wild Tokens!! / Karrthus, Tyrant of Jund Dragons! / Muzzio, Visionary Architect / Brago, King Eternal / Daretti, Scrap Savant / Narset, Enlightened Master / Alesha, Who Smiles at Death / Bruna, Light of Alabaster / Marchesa, the Black Rose / Iroas, God of Victory / Freyalise, Llanowar's Fury / Omnath, Locus of rage / Titania, Protector of Argoth / Kozilek, the Great Distortion
Modern
Elves / Titanshift / Merfolk
I've played Bogles for for over a year. I've played Grishoalbrand for around 1 year. The first PPTQ I won with Bogles had 73 players. In the first round, I was paired against Twin - the bane of my existence. Sure there were worse matchups like Ad Nauseam, Living End, or Bloom Titan, but I did not run into those as often as the dreaded Twin. I knew that I have hardly any chance to win, but I know what needs to happen in order to win. I won that round 2-0, the only time I've ever done that to Twin (usually losing 1-2). I drew well throughout the tournament, but in the top 4, I ran against Jund. After losing game 1, I had before the game Leyline of Sanctity for the 1st and 2nd times ever in games 2 and 3 to win those games. Granted, I had never had Leyline before the game, playing the deck for 6 months at the time with the full playset. Beating Twin and getting a good card for the first time in a matchup were signs that I was drawing well. I beat the Affinity player that had beaten me in the Swiss in the finals, every game going to the person playing first except the final game of the tournament, in which I won on the draw. I wouldn't say it was so much metagaming, as just being lucky and knowing how to play my deck very well.
I've played this game for way too long as well. And 8 years ago, I forced myself to learn to play archetypes other than Control. I've become a more well rounded player and actually play a lot of different decks, but for the most part I've STILL done better with decks that I played longer.
1. Bogles - over a year
2. Grishoalbrand - a year
3. RUG Scapeshift - 4 months
4. Pyromancer Storm - 3 months
These are all the decks that I've had the highest win percentage with (or pretty close to it in the case of Scapeshift and Storm). I've actually been too scared to try Grixis Death's Shadow or Knightfall at a PPTQ, despite the fact that I play them all the time outside of one. I just know that there's no way that I play those as well as I can play Titan Shift right now and Titan Shift is well placed in the meta.
I guess you could say my point is this. You don't have to win all 3 to win a PPTQ or other tournament. Sometimes it just takes 2 of them.
1. Metagaming
2. Luck
3. Skill in playing your deck
I actually lost the metagaming point that day with Bogles.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)My experience is the complete opposite, I do much better in Standard than I do in Modern simply because Standard sometimes intentionally has decks that have very few to no negative matchups. Metagaming is much easier to do in Standard than it is Modern because there are less viable decks in Standard than Modern. My success in Modern really depends on my pairings during swiss and my dice roll results. I simply cannot justify the amount of work to reward ratio in learning a deck in Modern as I cannot turn a perceived 80/20 matchup (ie. Burn vs Martyr Proc as an example) into a favorable one for me with extreme amounts of dedication, the incentives simply don't exist. I can simply do less work in Standard for the same amount of reward, it just requires an upkeep every 3 months because Standard. There is no Modern deck in the format where I can say "This deck has no bad matchups or very few bad matchups all the time". Those decks get banned out of existence because it makes the masses feel better that their deck can win a GP if they get lucky enough. That's why Gold/Platinum level pros get slaughtered by randoms at Modern GP feature match tables, the tools simply don't exist to build a deck of 75 cards to beat all strategies. But that's ok, because it gives the random person running extremely well the feel-goods that I can beat a strong Pro Tour level player just due to the nature of the format.
Yeah but you can go into the event with 1 and 3 both in your favor. You don't have to play boogles when you know it's a dog to most of the meta when you are/could be well versed in a better option. From your example it sounds like mostly luck was involved (not saying anything about your skill level at all) but you can't go into an event planning to be lucky (unless you're lsv). Just because it was a success doesn't mean there wasn't a better option.
I often wonder this. I could have just grinded Twin since the beginning of Modern and my results probably would have been better. Part of the reason why I didn't was because I actively wanted to prove that other decks could win and prove to myself that I could win with a "lesser" deck. But in a pure competitive standpoint, I will admit that I was doing myself a disservice. It's very hard to balance my Spike side, which needs to win to feel good, and my Timmy side, which wants to play decks that I enjoy. It's tough because I'm probably about 60/40 Spike/Timmy. I completely agree with what you said here.
Metagame wise for Bogles, it never felt like a dog to many decks. Here's why. Burn was good. I won't say it's more than 55/45, but it was good. Pod decks were around 60/40, although Company decks after Pod was banned turned it to 40/60 unbelievably. Twin was bad. Bloom, Living End, and Ad Nauseam were decks that I just hoped to avoid and just NOT see at X-0 tables. Bogles is incredibly good against decks trying to win the creature combat battle. You can't beat those in combat, normally. Affinity was very good for me, probably around 65/35. Now I'll get to BGx. I've seen it proclaimed as a terrible matchup, but I'll say this. I ran 2 Dryad Arbor and 8-9 fetches. My overall record when I retired Bogles against BGx was 78-42 in matches (most at Comp REL), and was much better until around my last 20 matches, where I was 10-10. Players who just read stuff that Bogles loses to BGx because they discard you and Liliana of the Veil sacrifice your only creature you can ever draw are the type of players who don't want to get better. I actively tried to make Bogles better against certain decks in the meta. Against Twin, I failed. Against Combo decks, I failed. But I succeeded vs. BGx and I am VERY proud to have such a record against them, although saddened by how bad it got right before I retired Bogles. Sorry, I am a Bogles player at heart. I will stick up for my deck, but at the same time, I try to be reasonable and honest.
- I agree that Standard is easier to do well in. There certainly are fewer decks to prepare for. That can't be reasonably argued. I actually didn't put time into Standard much because I didn't care. I just wanted to spike a tournament because of the strength of my deck - 1 top 8 with Combo Cat and 1 with Marvel. My point for KTrojan was just that play skill in a format doesn't necessarily transfer over completely to another format. You still have to practice. And I appreciate you giving your own experience as well. These are the types of things I like seeing here. It gives me much more insight to other player's experiences.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Also worth noting: just because FCG played linear decks does not mean the format is too linear. We talk about sample sizes a lot here with tournament results, and there's room for discussion. One guy playing two decks that are linear is not representative of an entire format though. No debate there.
Some evidence of how I feel. I played UR Storm for a bit during Extended. Losing only half of the mirrors I faced left me out of the Top 8, although I honestly can't remember if it was 2-2 or 3-3. This really sucked to me.
More evidence. There is a very linear meta where I don't do well with many decks. I literally have to bring something like Little Kid Abzan to do well there, at least recently. I'm 11-1 with Little Kid there, even though I don't enjoy the deck much, and this is despite not being paired against as many Burn/Rack players as I would like to.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)I wasn't trying to imply the format is too anything. Just that in modern sometimes you can just do you and get wins. I meant nothing bad by it just simply saying some decks like that you can pick up for a couple games and play to 85% of the lines well. I play all variants too that's the joy sometimes. I always play modern after work so when I'm just drained I much prefer playing a deck I win or lose with in the first 3ish turns.
I hated it, but I think he's right. As long as you play on mtgo/play-test with your group, you can get a pretty good grasp on a deck with grinding. I think you gain more points edging out the right meta than playing a deck for 2 years straight.
I mean, knowing your deck is incredibly important, but I think knowing every major deck in the format will serve you more.
I agree with this approach at a PT or an Invitational, where metas are more predictable, but disagree with it for an Open or GP. Metagames are not knowable at that level, and you will often encounter lots of Day 1 matches that fall outside of meta expectations. That's where deck knowledge comes into play and helps you navigate matchups you didn't expect and can't consistently metagame.
Of course, if you are really, really good at predicting the metagame and can do that at big events, then go for it. Most players will misread it, however, so it's better to go with a deck you know
That said, your deck of choice should be generally playable against the top-tier decks. For example, if you're a huge underdog to BOTH E-Tron and GDS, that's going to be a problem.
I've been playing E-Tron the past few weeks, I still think it's secretly the best deck in the format while Grixis Shadow takes all the heat (by heat I mean decks aiming to beat it). The fact the mana-base is so difficult to attack because of temples and tron lands is brutal, mana-screw isn't really a thing, and the deck really breaks the color-pie, it seems like the only thing the 75 can't handle is AD Naus and Titanshift variants.
Loving the deck, jund player adapting and playing the better midrange deck.
Will never make the mistake of foiling out a modern deck again though.
I think you can meta game a open or a gp but not the first few rounds or maybe just not day 1. The biggest hurdle is going to be getting past the jank, but once you do You can expect certain decks to be present at the top tables. Granted this is way easier with byes. We have kinda already seen this with Todd Stevens and his gw coco deck
What I will say after leaving my comfort zone of the Modern format, is that I have learnt quite a few things;
1. If you can't reasonably seal the game by turn 4-5, it's probably not a good enough deck for Modern.
2. If your deck doesn't have enough synergy and critical mass, your deck folds to Eldrazi Tron and Grixis Shadow (the current police decks in my mind)
3. You need to play a deck that has enough consistency with the rounds you play, for example if your deck losses to itself 1/4 rounds, you don't want to play it in a 10 round tournament.
These symptoms I believe are better than what we have faced as a community in the past. I still feel some unbans help aid the situation. I still advocate for Bloodbraid Elf and Stoneforge Mystic as unbans, especially since we have recently changed how Split cards work.
You're right that in the first few turns you could see all sorts of jank, you could be playing the top deck and lose against some junk standard-like deck.
MTGO really helped step my game up. I can afford to do all sorts of dumb mistakes on there and reflect on my mess ups. It also helps me recognize all sorts of decks or up and coming decks being popularized.
After playing with enough E-Tron and Grixis Shadow, I think I feel confident enough saying Junk and Jund are not good enough midrange decks now, they could definitely use BBE and SFM, but they aren't necessarily entitled to it. I'd be more than happy to see those two cards unbanned. I'm not sure what kind of meta it would take to see GBx return to prominence, it would have to be creature heavy and dominate E-Tron and Shadow.
Blue decks are really surging in popularity, I'm seeing a lot of players on fair blue decks in multiple LGS and on MTGO, they're pretty solid, too.
I'm fortunate enough to be in Philly with a huge modern crowd, meta is wide open
Too much hate for Grixis Shadow for me though, I don't think I'm skilled enough to play that deck and over-come the hate. I'm glad the best deck in modern is difficult and non-intuitive, I'll gladly accept that as the king.
Affinity, E-Tron, Burn, Grixis Death Shadow and some kind of Blue control deck, seemed fairly representative of the format.
BBE really only serves Jund, and possibly a Temur build. I don't think Jund ever looks bad in a meta, it keeps some combo decks and creature aggro/creature combo decks honest. I think it looks good on camera and always serves as fun viewership and play for the format as a whole.
SFM just makes blue and white good again, pushes Abzan to punish shadow players furthers, puts another grindy interactive deck in the meta.
I concede that for now UW Control and Jeskai are solid decks though. I still think white as a whole sucks though, but with Mono white DnT also at the top, it's hard to fight tooth and nail for an SFM unban. I mean, those two archetypes have sucked as a whole for 2 years until this meta though.
KnightfallGWUR
Azorius Control UW
Burn RBG
The problem with unbanning JTMS is the price of the card. At the time of writing the cheapest English copy of the card is the EMA version at $75 each (SCG). If you unban JTMS that price will skyrocket from hundreds of thousands of people now wanting playsets of the card to play in their Modern decks. Let's assume that JTMS's price spikes similar to that of Golgari Grave-Troll when it was unbanned (I am being nice, and not using the much more likely price spike of Ancestral Vision as a comparison). Before it was unbanned GGT was $1.50. After being unbanned it immediately spiked to $8, and had an all time high of $14 before being added once again to the Modern Ban List. Currently GGT's price is down to about $5.
So upon being unbanned GGT's price increased by about 500%. If the same happens with JTMS, suddenly it goes from a $75 card to a $375 card, with playsets costing players $1,500. If the trend continues the same, JTMS's all time high price could reach $675 or around 900% It's initial price (again similar to the spikes with GGT).
Now imagine being a player who just spent $1,500 on four cards for your deck. First of all, with that kind of cash you could just buy an entirely separate Modern deck, hell maybe even 2 or 3 of them. How do you feel when Wizards goes, "Well unbanning JTMS was a mistake, we need to add him back to the Ban List." $1,500 down the drain. In a best case scenario JTMS tanks in the same was that GGT did and at the end of the day it's price will be around $225 each. But you'd still be out $150 for each copy of JTMS you bought in this instance.
In conclusion, even though I know my numbers are crazy (they were made deliberately crazy to prove a point, but imagine if they were closer to the numbers of the Ancestral Vision spike where it jumped from an $8 card to $50 (625% increase), the correlation back to JTMS would be a price tag of $470)the fact is that if this were to happen it would literally kill Modern as a format. So many people would leave Modern from pure distaste and anger that in my opinion the format would be completely ruined.
Modern Decks:
UBG Lantern Control GBU
BRG Bridge-Vine GRB
Commander Decks
UBG Muldrotha, Value Elemental GBU
BRG Windgrace Real-Estate Ltd. GRB
#PayThePros
I think you're getting ahead of yourself saying it'd go up to a 300 dollar card, it's been printed a few times
That being said, I do not believe Jace should come off, the card is just a massive risk in every sense. If Jace needed to be rebanned, players would be incredibly angry and disgusted, and they'd definitely lose players from the game as a whole.
Please note that I intentionally made my numbers ridiculous to make a point I say so in my post if you actually read the whole thing.
Modern Decks:
UBG Lantern Control GBU
BRG Bridge-Vine GRB
Commander Decks
UBG Muldrotha, Value Elemental GBU
BRG Windgrace Real-Estate Ltd. GRB
#PayThePros
If they ever did unbanned it though, it would have to coincide with a high print run reprint to counteract the price spike. Otherwise, people would quit Modern before even trying to buy it.
And @spsiegel1987, sure, in a perfect world price would never be a factor in a banlist. But WOTC is invested in keeping people playing the game, and the price of JTMS would drive people out of the game if it was unbanned. So in the imperfect world where we actually live, the price of JTMS excludes it from basically ever being unbanned.
Marath, Will of the Wild Tokens!! / Karrthus, Tyrant of Jund Dragons! / Muzzio, Visionary Architect / Brago, King Eternal / Daretti, Scrap Savant / Narset, Enlightened Master / Alesha, Who Smiles at Death / Bruna, Light of Alabaster / Marchesa, the Black Rose / Iroas, God of Victory / Freyalise, Llanowar's Fury / Omnath, Locus of rage / Titania, Protector of Argoth / Kozilek, the Great Distortion
Modern
Elves / Titanshift / Merfolk