That's reasonable ktkenshinx - if you think WotC will either test or assume dredge to still be tier 1.5 without GGT. I'm not so sure it's really still up there with Golgari Thug beside old stinky instead of the troll.
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Modern Decks
KnightfallGWUR
Azorius Control UW
Burn RBG
Agree with this. I'm selling all my collection since october except for Eldrazi deck. I no longer want to be afraid of the banlist. It's too volatile. (This includes Infect and UR/x staples)
What are your predictions for the next annoucement Sheridan?
In order of likelihood (not in order of preference):
Scenario 1
No unbans
Ban GGT
Scenario 2
No changes
Scenario 3
Unban SFM
Ban GGT
As much as I like Preordain as an option, I don't think Wizards is going to lightly unban it. It doesn't directly fight fast, linear decks. It indirectly does so by empowering reactive decks to find answers. That's an extra layer of logic and testing which Wizards might not follow. By contrast, SFM is exactly the kind of card that directly and obviously fights fast decks. I can see Wizards running limited tests with it, watching it blunt Dredge, Burn, and DSZ, and seeing that few top-tier white decks exist to run it.
Other options include some combination of scenarios 1-3 with a JTMS unban and/or a BI ban.
Seems reasonable to me, although my guess is that they'd avoid leveling the banhammer at GGT just because of PR reasons. If they want to hit Dredge without killing it, I think there are other pieces they can ban that would accomplish that goal but without the same level of long-term stigma. You can bet that "That time Wizards unbanned GGT and then had to ban it again a couple years later" would be a stain on their image and the format, whereas "That time Wizards unbanned GGT and then printed Amalgam/Reuinion, which proved to be too much and had to be banned" doesn't have quite the same punch to it.
IMO, at any rate.
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Playing UX Mana Denial until Modern gets the answers it needs.
WUBRG Humans BRW Mardu Pyromancer UW UW "Control" UR Blue Moon
I think that a re-ban of GGT is mostly fine since they couldn't control the outcome of Amalgam and Reunion in the deck.
The reason could be something like: When we unbanned Golgari Grave Troll we wanted to make Dredge a viable deck. This wasn´t exactly true for a year. The deck still saw very fringe play and couldn't crack a real percentage of the meta, neither a stable core. Until SOI, GGT was a reasonable unban since its power in the current card pool wasn't as exploitable. When Prized Amalgam was released the deck catched a lot of steam and got to a reasonable % of the metagame and a stable deck-core.
When Reunion was printed the deck become too fast for good hate cards to be remotely relevant. Dredge promotes sideboard strain and triviality. Also, it nuked all other graveyard strategies out of the metagame.
We are looking to low the power level and consistency of the deck; But, as when we unbanned GGT, we still want Dredge to be viable in this format. With this goals in mind, we decided to ban GGT and see how the deck performs at a slower pace, still controlling the archetype until next announcement.
My predictions: 1) GGT banned and nothing Unbanned.
2)GGT, Stinkweed Imp banned. Nothing Unbanned.
3)No changes.
We can talk unbans in April. SFM, Jace and Preordain could be targets. Unlikely but targets at last.
Good points. Axing Modern from PT (again) does let them play a little looser IMO.
I personally think the upcoming MM17 makes it a little more likely that they'll err on the side of an unban plus a possible Dredge ban for January 2017. The amount of hype a high-profile unbanning could build - (even if it's printed at common or uncommon like Preordain would almost certainly be - would do a lot for MM17 after the relative weakness of MM15. Doesn't seem unlikely they've been keeping something in their back pocket for a year or so to build excitement for that reason. But maybe I'm just being a little overly hopeful and cynical at the same time.
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Playing UX Mana Denial until Modern gets the answers it needs.
WUBRG Humans BRW Mardu Pyromancer UW UW "Control" UR Blue Moon
I feel like rebanning GGT would make WOTC look bad
I would lose my ***** over SFM being unbanned, but that's the bias in me. I bought 3 foils of her because I really don't want to her to become 65 to 120 over night. If she's unbanned, I lose out on having to buy 1 foil (which is still a lot of money)
I think SFM would certainly power up blue cards, probably not as much as preordain, but preordain also has the side-effect of powering up decks that lack interactivity, which is what WOTC is attempting to avoid. Preordain may not push the established combo decks too hard though. It depends on what WOTC wants to do
I really hate that Kutcher cherry-picked my quote when my feelings were similar to Sheridan about reducing diversity. I also hate having to spread my SB even more thin now having to pack multiple land hate, GY hate and Affinity hate with little left to dedicate to, because of having a 70% chance of losing if I don't see my lottery ticket hate card, I really don't want games to come down to lucky sideboard cards
What on earth could possibly make SFM broken in modern? She has no jitte
She cheats in batterskull turn 3, if not killed, attacks turn 4? for 6 if nothing dies? I just don't know how people can say this is close to the level of cards you just mentioned. I think modern's power level is high enough to handle her
I cannot see her being banned over than 2 years as of now
i'll be shocked if nothing is unbanned in this upcoming announcement
What? I never said anything about SFM being broken. Being "broken" isn't the only criteria for being banned. Sure, I guess it's one of them. Treasure Cruise fits that bill. But it's far from the only thing keeping a card on the banlist. Here's what Forsythe said about Modern:
Modern should:
Be a fun way to play Magic (first, and easy to forget, but very important!)
Let you tap into your collection to expand upon established decks and familiar strategies from Magic's recent past
Offer different types of decks and gameplay than what you typically see in Standard
Not rotate, allowing you to keep a deck for a long period of time
Consist of cards that we are willing and able to reprint
Those are the easy ones. Beyond those, Modern should:
Have a diverse top-tier metagame featuring over a dozen archetypes
Not be dominated by fast, non-interactive decks (consistent kills before turn four are a red flag)
Be at a power level that allows some newly printed Standard cards to affect the format (we don't have other ways to introduce cards into the format, and we like it when cards or decks can transition)
Have as small a banned list as possible that accomplishes all the previous goals
There's room for interpretation in many of those statements—intentionally—but this paints a clearer picture of how we see Modern.
SFM has the POTENTIAL to violate every one of those listed items, except the obvious things like old collection, not rotate, etc. Now, I'm not saying she WILL violate those things, but I'm saying it's possible. Nobody here knows with any certainty, and it's likely WOTC doesn't either. That means she's a risky unban, and WOTC doesn't really do that. I don't see any way they ever unban SFM unless/until they purposefully and with communication to the player base decide to power up the format.
Agree with this. I'm selling all my collection since october except for Eldrazi deck. I no longer want to be afraid of the banlist. It's too volatile. (This includes Infect and UR/x staples)
What are your predictions for the next annoucement Sheridan?
In order of likelihood (not in order of preference):
Scenario 1
No unbans
Ban GGT
Scenario 2
No changes
Scenario 3
Unban SFM
Ban GGT
As much as I like Preordain as an option, I don't think Wizards is going to lightly unban it. It doesn't directly fight fast, linear decks. It indirectly does so by empowering reactive decks to find answers. That's an extra layer of logic and testing which Wizards might not follow. By contrast, SFM is exactly the kind of card that directly and obviously fights fast decks. I can see Wizards running limited tests with it, watching it blunt Dredge, Burn, and DSZ, and seeing that few top-tier white decks exist to run it.
Other options include some combination of scenarios 1-3 with a JTMS unban and/or a BI ban.
I disagree and actually feel it's the opposite regarding the logic of SFM and Preordain. The logic you list makes it sound like WOTC asks themselves "What card(s) will help struggling decks/archetypes?" That may be a question, and we've heard quotes that sound similar, but I think the first question and last question they ask, the bread in the question sandwich, is something like "Is this card safe in the format?" If they can't answer "yes" to that with certainty, I doubt the answer to any other questions really matters. Right now Preordain is the only card on the entire banlist where you can answer "yes" with certainty.
I may be on the minority, but my bets are on "No changes" for Modern.
Regarding Dredge: While I certainly see the diversity argument in a void, I doubt it meets WotC'd crtieria. From the Twin ban article: "Decks that are this strong can hurt diversity by pushing the decks that it defeats out of competition. They can also reduce diversity by supplanting similar decks." While Dredge apparently (no hard numbers here right now) does appear to indirectly hinder other graveyard-based strategies due to the increased graveyard hate in sideboards, I don't think it's all about Dredge. Grishoalbrand has always been a Tier 3 deck at best, and both Abzan Company and Living End went up in the tiers as a reaction to the Eldrazi Winter, and this was a huge factor of their success for the 2 months it lasted. To the best of my knowledge, Abzan Company and Living End were Tier 2 and Tier 3 at best (respectively) at their pre-Eldrazi, pre-Dredge primes.
More importantly though, I don't think Dredge is "this strong" in WotC's eyes. Bloodbraid Elf, Deathrite Shaman, Birthing Pod, Splinter Twin and Eye of Ugin all had a +19% PT/GP Top8 representation in addition to other factors (Day2 and online metashare), which strongly suggest the Top8 numbers are the most important factor, if not the deciding one. On the other hand, Dredge's high profile numbers just aren't there, neither in its current form (2.1%) nor as a mechanic (2.5%). This is the main reason why I think Dredge will emerge unscatched. As it stands, the deck doesn't warrant action taken on it, not now at least.
Regarding the online metagame, Dredge has certainly been top tier since June and was even the top dog for 2 months (13.2% Oct and 10.1% Nov), we have to keep in mind that a)the deck is on the decline and b)the deck is really cheap: investing about 230 tix in a deck that regularly goes 5-0 is a huge deal when the other successful decks average 477 tix. Believe me, that's a huge deal. As a quick aside: anyone noticed both the huge Abzan Midrange online resurgence this year (15% so far) and that it just won the MOCS yesterday? Interesting stuff for sure.
Edit: And this all in the context of PT-less Modern. For all we know, bans will probably be far more rare. Miracles at 30% of GP Top8s is fine in PT-less Legacy.
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Modern:WU WU Control | WBG Abzan Company Frontier:UBR Grixis Control | BRG Jund Delirium
@ktkenshinx, Is there some data that shows that Dredge is dominating the format? I'm looking at the MTGGoldfish data, and it shows that Dredge is the 4th highest placing deck right now. There is the issue where they have it separated into two sections, but even adding those sections puts it in 3rd, and ignores any other separated decks on their list. MTGTop8 shows it sharing 8%, matching Infect's 8%, so those two as the two most placing decks, but even then, that is a more diverse metagame than any other format, and more diverse than we are typically used to (we usually have at least one deck over 10%).
I don't know for sure, but Grishoalbrand and Living End have been subpar for quite some time, so I don't know that it's Dredge being prominent that pushed them down, assuming they've been pushed down at all. I don't have the data to know this for sure. I'll take a look in a while, about to go play in the snow. As for Abzan Company, I could have sworn I saw it decrease as Jund started running Kalitas. I wouldn't doubt that graveyard hate becoming more prevalent could have helped push Abzan Company down, but as it stands, I think the meta is already pretty nice. Sure, it's fast, but it's incredibly diverse, and I wouldn't be surprised if it got more diverse as we get a few of these new AER cards into the format. I could be wrong, of course, I've been wrong plenty of times before.
What I have been thinking about is Tron. Now, I have to be honest in that I may have some bias, as Tron is now a super hard matchup for my pet deck, but I'm also building Gb Tron as my 2nd deck. I remember their reason for banning Birthing Pod being something along the lines of it making it difficult for them to print all sorts of new creature cards, as each one could just be thrown into Pod as a 1-of and the deck would just get better and better. Tron kind of does the same thing, as we can see has happened when Ugin, Newlamog, and World Breaker got printed. It was, at one time, manageable, but now it just gets new things as more big stuff gets printed. There is little that actually keeps it in check. I'm not saying that it's broken now, or that I think it should be banned, but I see parallels between it and Pod.
Also, on a side note, is Modern Nexus going to put out another Modern Metagame Matchup chart in the near future? The last one I saw was 2015, and the metagame has changed quite a bit since then.
Wait, in what way does a grindy 2-drop that pushes aggro decks towards more interaction and at best swings for 4 damage on turn 4 cause the format to be dominated by fast, non-interactive decks? And how does unbanning SFM make the banlist bigger? Absolute doomsday worst-case scenario, they ban her again. How does she reduce the format's diversity when the - limited, but still valuable - data we have points towards a marginal impact across the board except vs. burn even when slotted into the most powerful relevant deck? I agree that the possiblity exists, but I don't find it likely - just like GGT and Bitterblossom and Valakut and SotM and AV (at the same time, mind you!) could all have but were not likely to break the format.
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Playing UX Mana Denial until Modern gets the answers it needs.
WUBRG Humans BRW Mardu Pyromancer UW UW "Control" UR Blue Moon
@ktkenshinx, Is there some data that shows that Dredge is dominating the format? I'm looking at the MTGGoldfish data, and it shows that Dredge is the 4th highest placing deck right now. There is the issue where they have it separated into two sections, but even adding those sections puts it in 3rd, and ignores any other separated decks on their list. MTGTop8 shows it sharing 8%, matching Infect's 8%, so those two as the two most placing decks, but even then, that is a more diverse metagame than any other format, and more diverse than we are typically used to (we usually have at least one deck over 10%).
I don't know for sure, but Grishoalbrand and Living End have been subpar for quite some time, so I don't know that it's Dredge being prominent that pushed them down, assuming they've been pushed down at all. I don't have the data to know this for sure. I'll take a look in a while, about to go play in the snow. As for Abzan Company, I could have sworn I saw it decrease as Jund started running Kalitas. I wouldn't doubt that graveyard hate becoming more prevalent could have helped push Abzan Company down, but as it stands, I think the meta is already pretty nice. Sure, it's fast, but it's incredibly diverse, and I wouldn't be surprised if it got more diverse as we get a few of these new AER cards into the format. I could be wrong, of course, I've been wrong plenty of times before.
What I have been thinking about is Tron. Now, I have to be honest in that I may have some bias, as Tron is now a super hard matchup for my pet deck, but I'm also building Gb Tron as my 2nd deck. I remember their reason for banning Birthing Pod being something along the lines of it making it difficult for them to print all sorts of new creature cards, as each one could just be thrown into Pod as a 1-of and the deck would just get better and better. Tron kind of does the same thing, as we can see has happened when Ugin, Newlamog, and World Breaker got printed. It was, at one time, manageable, but now it just gets new things as more big stuff gets printed. There is little that actually keeps it in check. I'm not saying that it's broken now, or that I think it should be banned, but I see parallels between it and Pod.
Also, on a side note, is Modern Nexus going to put out another Modern Metagame Matchup chart in the near future? The last one I saw was 2015, and the metagame has changed quite a bit since then.
Dredge is not dominating the format. I think I said that here. It's just pushing out all the other GY decks. Wizards didn't unban GGT to create one GY deck to rule them all. They just wanted another GY deck to exist alongside the existing ones. In that regard, Dredge has failed: there are no other top-tier GY decks. This is why Dredge should get a limited ban. You want to make the deck a little worse so people don't have to play 4-5 GY hate cards in their SBs. This will open the Tier 1/Tier 2 landscape to other GY decks coming back, while also allowing Dredge to stay Tier 2 or intermittently Tier 1. It's really a win-win.
Tron bans are dumb suggestions. Tron isn't pushing other ramp decks (Titan Breach is another option). Tron isn't pushing out other midrange decks (Jund is the most-played deck, Abzan is Top 10 and actually sees more play than Tron). Tron isn't pushing out control decks (the decks fell out of the metagame before Tron rose). Tron also doesn't have a high metagame share: it's under 5%. Tron has also been under 5% all year. We need to stop this myth that Tron limits interactive decks. It's maybe one of about 10 factors against these decks, the data hasn't backed up that claim all year, and Tron has barely been Tier 1 for all of the year.
What on earth could possibly make SFM broken in modern? She has no jitte
She cheats in batterskull turn 3, if not killed, attacks turn 4? for 6 if nothing dies? I just don't know how people can say this is close to the level of cards you just mentioned. I think modern's power level is high enough to handle her
I cannot see her being banned over than 2 years as of now
i'll be shocked if nothing is unbanned in this upcoming announcement
What? I never said anything about SFM being broken. Being "broken" isn't the only criteria for being banned. Sure, I guess it's one of them. Treasure Cruise fits that bill. But it's far from the only thing keeping a card on the banlist. Here's what Forsythe said about Modern:
Modern should:
Be a fun way to play Magic (first, and easy to forget, but very important!)
Let you tap into your collection to expand upon established decks and familiar strategies from Magic's recent past
Offer different types of decks and gameplay than what you typically see in Standard
Not rotate, allowing you to keep a deck for a long period of time
Consist of cards that we are willing and able to reprint
Those are the easy ones. Beyond those, Modern should:
Have a diverse top-tier metagame featuring over a dozen archetypes
Not be dominated by fast, non-interactive decks (consistent kills before turn four are a red flag)
Be at a power level that allows some newly printed Standard cards to affect the format (we don't have other ways to introduce cards into the format, and we like it when cards or decks can transition)
Have as small a banned list as possible that accomplishes all the previous goals
There's room for interpretation in many of those statements—intentionally—but this paints a clearer picture of how we see Modern.
SFM has the POTENTIAL to violate every one of those listed items, except the obvious things like old collection, not rotate, etc. Now, I'm not saying she WILL violate those things, but I'm saying it's possible. Nobody here knows with any certainty, and it's likely WOTC doesn't either. That means she's a risky unban, and WOTC doesn't really do that. I don't see any way they ever unban SFM unless/until they purposefully and with communication to the player base decide to power up the format.
Agree with this. I'm selling all my collection since october except for Eldrazi deck. I no longer want to be afraid of the banlist. It's too volatile. (This includes Infect and UR/x staples)
What are your predictions for the next annoucement Sheridan?
In order of likelihood (not in order of preference):
Scenario 1
No unbans
Ban GGT
Scenario 2
No changes
Scenario 3
Unban SFM
Ban GGT
As much as I like Preordain as an option, I don't think Wizards is going to lightly unban it. It doesn't directly fight fast, linear decks. It indirectly does so by empowering reactive decks to find answers. That's an extra layer of logic and testing which Wizards might not follow. By contrast, SFM is exactly the kind of card that directly and obviously fights fast decks. I can see Wizards running limited tests with it, watching it blunt Dredge, Burn, and DSZ, and seeing that few top-tier white decks exist to run it.
Other options include some combination of scenarios 1-3 with a JTMS unban and/or a BI ban.
I disagree and actually feel it's the opposite regarding the logic of SFM and Preordain. The logic you list makes it sound like WOTC asks themselves "What card(s) will help struggling decks/archetypes?" That may be a question, and we've heard quotes that sound similar, but I think the first question and last question they ask, the bread in the question sandwich, is something like "Is this card safe in the format?" If they can't answer "yes" to that with certainty, I doubt the answer to any other questions really matters. Right now Preordain is the only card on the entire banlist where you can answer "yes" with certainty.
On your first point: if SFM is not broken it should not be on the banlist Period.
On your second point: It appears as tho you are making a case for SFM.
a. modern should be fun- fun is subjective so you may not like SFM but surely others would
b. let you tap into your collection for decks of the past- like an equipment deck that we have not seen in quite some time
c. not rotate- n/a
d. Consist of cards that they can and will reprint- admittedly much harder to reprint SFM or other powerful equipment in standard but she is certainly within the power level of masters sets.
then
a. diverse top tier - at this point there is almost no reason to run white now that push is being printed having a powerful white card can only HELP diversity. On top of that there are no top tier equipment decks in the format. SFM helps to make that a possiblity.
b. not being dominated by fast decks- attacking with a 4/4 on turn 4 is not in anyway "fast"
c. be at a power level where standard cards can affect the format- this is less about one card being on or off the banlist and more about the power level of the format as a whole
d. have as small a banlist as possible - speaks for itself obviously fair cards should be the ones to come off before any other. (SFM is powerful but fair)
On the whole i feel like your post was advocating for a SFM unban.
On the whole i feel like your post was advocating for a SFM unban.
I assure you I was not. But that's simply because you can read the criteria from WOTC after already having a desire for SFM to be unbanned and make a case on each point. I don't care if it's banned or unbanned, so I see the push and pull of the risk that I understand WOTC looks at.
I don't think she violates any of those anymore, they're afraid of her purely from standard play. The format has evolved now. She violates and constricts decks just like how green is obligated to to run Goyf, blue must run Snap, black must run Bob
If we had something like turn 1 DRS followed by SFM I could see the issue with SFM
She's just---not that overpowered anymore, dude. She powers up blue, she powers up Abzan, she powers up Death and Taxes, and she gives life to mardu. White is still a joke in modern outside of Path, souls and it's awesome sideboard cards. White's the only color without a 2 cmc bomb-card
How did you and your team come to the conclusion that ancestral visions and sword of the meek were safe to come off the banlist in modern? About when did you know it'd be ok before the actual unbanning? Can you talk about that process?
Quote from Sam Stoddard answer »
Well, we weren't 100% sure. If we were, they would've come off a long time ago. The rest of the format gets stronger over time, and more and more cards can become okay to take off. We looked at the format, and saw how much control decks were struggled. We played some games on Magic Online with lists that we thought were good representations of those decks, just to make sure they weren't obviously over the line. In the end, we used our intuition, and decided to make a calculated risk. If you aren't doing anything that scares you a bit, you probably aren't taking enough risks.
Notable pieces of this testing process include:
"Well, we weren't 100% sure."
Cards don't need to be 100% safe.
"We looked at the format, and saw how much control decks were struggled [sic]."
Look for struggling archetypes, unban to help.
"We played some games on Magic Online with lists that we thought were good representations of those decks"
Limited MTGO testing based on R&D guesses about what lists will use the cards.
"In the end, we used our intuition, and decided to make a calculated risk."
Unbanning decisions can come down to intuition in addition to testing, but intuition is perhaps more important.
"If you aren't doing anything that scares you a bit, you probably aren't taking enough risks. "
Emphasizing the first point: cards don't have to be 100% safe and it's okay to take risks
This post captures why I think SFM is a likelier unban than Preordain. It doesn't take a lot of intuition or testing to show that SFM is probably going to help Modern decks and blunt aggro. Preordain takes a bit more intuition, logic, analysis, and testing.
@ktkenshinx, Is there some data that shows that Dredge is dominating the format? I'm looking at the MTGGoldfish data, and it shows that Dredge is the 4th highest placing deck right now. There is the issue where they have it separated into two sections, but even adding those sections puts it in 3rd, and ignores any other separated decks on their list. MTGTop8 shows it sharing 8%, matching Infect's 8%, so those two as the two most placing decks, but even then, that is a more diverse metagame than any other format, and more diverse than we are typically used to (we usually have at least one deck over 10%).
I don't know for sure, but Grishoalbrand and Living End have been subpar for quite some time, so I don't know that it's Dredge being prominent that pushed them down, assuming they've been pushed down at all. I don't have the data to know this for sure. I'll take a look in a while, about to go play in the snow. As for Abzan Company, I could have sworn I saw it decrease as Jund started running Kalitas. I wouldn't doubt that graveyard hate becoming more prevalent could have helped push Abzan Company down, but as it stands, I think the meta is already pretty nice. Sure, it's fast, but it's incredibly diverse, and I wouldn't be surprised if it got more diverse as we get a few of these new AER cards into the format. I could be wrong, of course, I've been wrong plenty of times before.
What I have been thinking about is Tron. Now, I have to be honest in that I may have some bias, as Tron is now a super hard matchup for my pet deck, but I'm also building Gb Tron as my 2nd deck. I remember their reason for banning Birthing Pod being something along the lines of it making it difficult for them to print all sorts of new creature cards, as each one could just be thrown into Pod as a 1-of and the deck would just get better and better. Tron kind of does the same thing, as we can see has happened when Ugin, Newlamog, and World Breaker got printed. It was, at one time, manageable, but now it just gets new things as more big stuff gets printed. There is little that actually keeps it in check. I'm not saying that it's broken now, or that I think it should be banned, but I see parallels between it and Pod.
Also, on a side note, is Modern Nexus going to put out another Modern Metagame Matchup chart in the near future? The last one I saw was 2015, and the metagame has changed quite a bit since then.
Dredge is not dominating the format. I think I said that here. It's just pushing out all the other GY decks. Wizards didn't unban GGT to create one GY deck to rule them all. They just wanted another GY deck to exist alongside the existing ones. In that regard, Dredge has failed: there are no other top-tier GY decks. This is why Dredge should get a limited ban. You want to make the deck a little worse so people don't have to play 4-5 GY hate cards in their SBs. This will open the Tier 1/Tier 2 landscape to other GY decks coming back, while also allowing Dredge to stay Tier 2 or intermittently Tier 1. It's really a win-win.
Tron bans are dumb suggestions. Tron isn't pushing other ramp decks (Titan Breach is another option). Tron isn't pushing out other midrange decks (Jund is the most-played deck, Abzan is Top 10 and actually sees more play than Tron). Tron isn't pushing out control decks (the decks fell out of the metagame before Tron rose). Tron also doesn't have a high metagame share: it's under 5%. Tron has also been under 5% all year. We need to stop this myth that Tron limits interactive decks. It's maybe one of about 10 factors against these decks, the data hasn't backed up that claim all year, and Tron has barely been Tier 1 for all of the year.
Update should be coming out this week.
That's a good point about Dredge. I suppose finding some way to weaken it could help make it so that other graveyard decks might do better.
Sorry, I wasn't trying to say that Tron should be banned right now. I think I specifically said that in the earlier comment, too ("I'm not saying that it's broken now, or that it should be banned"). I was attempting to point out the similarities in the Pod situation and Tron situation. Pod wasn't always dominating the format, and it took a while (and a few new cards) to start to push it. From your comment, I'm guessing that there's been quite an outcry, or constant complaint, about Tron?
Looking forward to the update! Also, what I meant specifically was the chart that showed how different decks matched up against eachother. Is that coming in the update too?
I disagree, 1 more removal spell (if you are in black) isnt going to stem the tide.
Yeah, the existing midrange decks already beat linear aggro and combo-aggro just fine; it doesn't need Fatal Push to do that. Push lets new midrange like Sultai exist by giving it powerful cheap removal, which will still be preyed upon by big mana (even more since Push can't hit most of their threats), while Aggro will still do just fine punishing big mana.
Whereas Stoneforge Mystic means White decks not called Abzan or Eldrazi can exist because they get their shell-defining threat. Very different vectors, neither of which looks likely to be oppressive, and both of which stand to benefit the format.
WotC may still decide to go the conservative route and monitor Push's effect. But I'd be very surprised if we don't see a high-profile unbanning (really the only kind that's left, I suppose) by a year after the Ancestral Vision/Sword of the Meek announcement.
No one was arguing that Summer Bloom should be unbanned. Literally no one.
The argument is..
That the winning 25% of its games before t4 numbers are completely misrepresented.
Bloom was, and is a grindy deck, whos power comes from it's inevitability. Not it's speed.
It's not a fast combo deck. It's just not.
In order for Bloom Titan to win before t4 you need a hand with:
(Amulet - Amulet - Summer Bloom - Titan - G Bounce land - Regular land that doesn't come in tapped) That's literally a 6 card combo......
You also need to NOT have any of the ~4 lands you need in your deck when sequencing, in your hand. (Boros Garrison, Slayers Stonghold, Sunhome, Vesuva- all NEED to be in your deck or the combo wont work)
Now do you guys really think that deck was capable of resolving a 6 card combo before before turn 4 in 1 out of 4 games, avoiding any, and all disruption?
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I don't understand why there has to be a "need" to unban a card. Shouldn't there "need" to be a reason to leave it banned instead? I feel like there's too many cards on the list that just don't break the format enough to justify keeping them banned, and SFM is probably the one I want to see come off the most (Because Glimpse and Clamp just cant happen, sadly, and I want to jam Stoneblade without selling a kidney.) Does she(SFM)really do enough damage to leave it banned?
Tbh Fatal Push already helps fighting aggro decks a lot and also midrange decks so looking from that perpective there is no need to unban SFM.
Well, we have no idea how either card will affect the metagame. That's why I think the likeliest two changes are a limited Dredge ban with no unbans, or no changes whatsoever. I only listed SFM as a possible unban scenario because it best fits Stoddard's explanation of an easy unban Wizards could approve of in testing. Another easy unban would be JTMS, which would also fit the Stoddard description and would come in 4th on my prediction list.
How did you and your team come to the conclusion that ancestral visions and sword of the meek were safe to come off the banlist in modern? About when did you know it'd be ok before the actual unbanning? Can you talk about that process?
Quote from Sam Stoddard answer »
Well, we weren't 100% sure. If we were, they would've come off a long time ago. The rest of the format gets stronger over time, and more and more cards can become okay to take off. We looked at the format, and saw how much control decks were struggled. We played some games on Magic Online with lists that we thought were good representations of those decks, just to make sure they weren't obviously over the line. In the end, we used our intuition, and decided to make a calculated risk. If you aren't doing anything that scares you a bit, you probably aren't taking enough risks.
Notable pieces of this testing process include:
"Well, we weren't 100% sure."
Cards don't need to be 100% safe.
"We looked at the format, and saw how much control decks were struggled [sic]."
Look for struggling archetypes, unban to help.
"We played some games on Magic Online with lists that we thought were good representations of those decks"
Limited MTGO testing based on R&D guesses about what lists will use the cards.
"In the end, we used our intuition, and decided to make a calculated risk."
Unbanning decisions can come down to intuition in addition to testing, but intuition is perhaps more important.
"If you aren't doing anything that scares you a bit, you probably aren't taking enough risks. "
Emphasizing the first point: cards don't have to be 100% safe and it's okay to take risks
This post captures why I think SFM is a likelier unban than Preordain. It doesn't take a lot of intuition or testing to show that SFM is probably going to help Modern decks and blunt aggro. Preordain takes a bit more intuition, logic, analysis, and testing.
I hadn't seen that. That changes things quite a bit. I'd still strongly doubt an SFM unban, but I've never been strongly opposed to it. I just think it drives the format more toward Legacy when I think they want it closer to Standard. But I want it closer to Legacy, so whatever.
Amulet Bloom was not a fast combo deck. It's(was) just not.
I had ~500-700 games with the deck. I began playing it after #PTFRGF and sold out on it at December, when I knew it was going to be banned. T2 wins were happening only ~5% times. T3 though. Closer to 15-20%. Again, they were ~2 times more(maybe a little less) than UR Prowess or Infect. Do you know why was that? Because I had MANY of them vs Jund/Junk through Inquisition Of Kozilek or Thoughtseize. LIghtning Bolt was rotting in the hand of the opponent, even Dismember. Again, T2 Titans were happening a lot. Not like 1/4 games, but 1/5 games. This, or Hive Mind. I literally had 100% win rate when I was resolving a T2 Titan and ~90% win rate when I was resolving a T3 Titan(some loses from fast aqggo decks), even if the actual win was on Turn 4-5-6. Turn 3 Hive Mind + Pact were happening a lot as well.
I loved the deck man, but there are youtube videos, WOTC statistics etc to prove that. Hard data.
No....
Just no.
Inquisition would have taken your Amulet, or Bloom. Thoughtsieze would have taken your Amulet, Bloom, or Titan. Bolt would have killed Azusa.
Stop acting like the deck is invulnerable to disruption.
Just talking about BGx, That deck has so many answers to Bloom. Decay kills Amulets, Pulse kills Amulets & Titans, Terminate, Slaughter Pact, Murderous Cut, etc, etc, etc kills Titans. Discard takes all the combo pieces. Liliana kills Titan, Ghost Quarters kill bounce lands, Bolts kill Azusas..
Turn 2 Titan is not a 100% win rate. Jesus. A) you only have 4 Titans you can chain. B) If your chaining Titans you aren't attacking with Titans. C) even chained Titans can be stopped. D) Chaining Titans takes perfect sequencing, and again when chaining Titans you present no actual offense
As long as daze, counterspell, prohibit, fow, wasteland are not in the format, we will never be close to legacy in power level
Prohibit is a very odd choice on this list. That card would be totally fine for Modern. Revolt Prohibit would have really rocked.
Honestly, I think JTMS passes the Stoddard unban test more handily than SFM, but I also don't know if they'd look at JTMS at all. He's not really a solution to fast, linear, non-interactive decks. SFM at least addresses that issue, even if she might end up being too strong.
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Seems reasonable to me, although my guess is that they'd avoid leveling the banhammer at GGT just because of PR reasons. If they want to hit Dredge without killing it, I think there are other pieces they can ban that would accomplish that goal but without the same level of long-term stigma. You can bet that "That time Wizards unbanned GGT and then had to ban it again a couple years later" would be a stain on their image and the format, whereas "That time Wizards unbanned GGT and then printed Amalgam/Reuinion, which proved to be too much and had to be banned" doesn't have quite the same punch to it.
IMO, at any rate.
WUBRG Humans
BRW Mardu Pyromancer
UW UW "Control"
UR Blue Moon
The reason could be something like: When we unbanned Golgari Grave Troll we wanted to make Dredge a viable deck. This wasn´t exactly true for a year. The deck still saw very fringe play and couldn't crack a real percentage of the meta, neither a stable core. Until SOI, GGT was a reasonable unban since its power in the current card pool wasn't as exploitable. When Prized Amalgam was released the deck catched a lot of steam and got to a reasonable % of the metagame and a stable deck-core.
When Reunion was printed the deck become too fast for good hate cards to be remotely relevant. Dredge promotes sideboard strain and triviality. Also, it nuked all other graveyard strategies out of the metagame.
We are looking to low the power level and consistency of the deck; But, as when we unbanned GGT, we still want Dredge to be viable in this format. With this goals in mind, we decided to ban GGT and see how the deck performs at a slower pace, still controlling the archetype until next announcement.
My predictions: 1) GGT banned and nothing Unbanned.
2)GGT, Stinkweed Imp banned. Nothing Unbanned.
3)No changes.
We can talk unbans in April. SFM, Jace and Preordain could be targets. Unlikely but targets at last.
I personally think the upcoming MM17 makes it a little more likely that they'll err on the side of an unban plus a possible Dredge ban for January 2017. The amount of hype a high-profile unbanning could build - (even if it's printed at common or uncommon like Preordain would almost certainly be - would do a lot for MM17 after the relative weakness of MM15. Doesn't seem unlikely they've been keeping something in their back pocket for a year or so to build excitement for that reason. But maybe I'm just being a little overly hopeful and cynical at the same time.
WUBRG Humans
BRW Mardu Pyromancer
UW UW "Control"
UR Blue Moon
I would lose my ***** over SFM being unbanned, but that's the bias in me. I bought 3 foils of her because I really don't want to her to become 65 to 120 over night. If she's unbanned, I lose out on having to buy 1 foil (which is still a lot of money)
I think SFM would certainly power up blue cards, probably not as much as preordain, but preordain also has the side-effect of powering up decks that lack interactivity, which is what WOTC is attempting to avoid. Preordain may not push the established combo decks too hard though. It depends on what WOTC wants to do
I really hate that Kutcher cherry-picked my quote when my feelings were similar to Sheridan about reducing diversity. I also hate having to spread my SB even more thin now having to pack multiple land hate, GY hate and Affinity hate with little left to dedicate to, because of having a 70% chance of losing if I don't see my lottery ticket hate card, I really don't want games to come down to lucky sideboard cards
What? I never said anything about SFM being broken. Being "broken" isn't the only criteria for being banned. Sure, I guess it's one of them. Treasure Cruise fits that bill. But it's far from the only thing keeping a card on the banlist. Here's what Forsythe said about Modern:
SFM has the POTENTIAL to violate every one of those listed items, except the obvious things like old collection, not rotate, etc. Now, I'm not saying she WILL violate those things, but I'm saying it's possible. Nobody here knows with any certainty, and it's likely WOTC doesn't either. That means she's a risky unban, and WOTC doesn't really do that. I don't see any way they ever unban SFM unless/until they purposefully and with communication to the player base decide to power up the format.
I disagree and actually feel it's the opposite regarding the logic of SFM and Preordain. The logic you list makes it sound like WOTC asks themselves "What card(s) will help struggling decks/archetypes?" That may be a question, and we've heard quotes that sound similar, but I think the first question and last question they ask, the bread in the question sandwich, is something like "Is this card safe in the format?" If they can't answer "yes" to that with certainty, I doubt the answer to any other questions really matters. Right now Preordain is the only card on the entire banlist where you can answer "yes" with certainty.
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
Regarding Dredge: While I certainly see the diversity argument in a void, I doubt it meets WotC'd crtieria. From the Twin ban article: "Decks that are this strong can hurt diversity by pushing the decks that it defeats out of competition. They can also reduce diversity by supplanting similar decks." While Dredge apparently (no hard numbers here right now) does appear to indirectly hinder other graveyard-based strategies due to the increased graveyard hate in sideboards, I don't think it's all about Dredge. Grishoalbrand has always been a Tier 3 deck at best, and both Abzan Company and Living End went up in the tiers as a reaction to the Eldrazi Winter, and this was a huge factor of their success for the 2 months it lasted. To the best of my knowledge, Abzan Company and Living End were Tier 2 and Tier 3 at best (respectively) at their pre-Eldrazi, pre-Dredge primes.
More importantly though, I don't think Dredge is "this strong" in WotC's eyes. Bloodbraid Elf, Deathrite Shaman, Birthing Pod, Splinter Twin and Eye of Ugin all had a +19% PT/GP Top8 representation in addition to other factors (Day2 and online metashare), which strongly suggest the Top8 numbers are the most important factor, if not the deciding one. On the other hand, Dredge's high profile numbers just aren't there, neither in its current form (2.1%) nor as a mechanic (2.5%). This is the main reason why I think Dredge will emerge unscatched. As it stands, the deck doesn't warrant action taken on it, not now at least.
Regarding the online metagame, Dredge has certainly been top tier since June and was even the top dog for 2 months (13.2% Oct and 10.1% Nov), we have to keep in mind that a)the deck is on the decline and b)the deck is really cheap: investing about 230 tix in a deck that regularly goes 5-0 is a huge deal when the other successful decks average 477 tix. Believe me, that's a huge deal. As a quick aside: anyone noticed both the huge Abzan Midrange online resurgence this year (15% so far) and that it just won the MOCS yesterday? Interesting stuff for sure.
Edit: And this all in the context of PT-less Modern. For all we know, bans will probably be far more rare. Miracles at 30% of GP Top8s is fine in PT-less Legacy.
Frontier: UBR Grixis Control | BRG Jund Delirium
I don't know for sure, but Grishoalbrand and Living End have been subpar for quite some time, so I don't know that it's Dredge being prominent that pushed them down, assuming they've been pushed down at all. I don't have the data to know this for sure. I'll take a look in a while, about to go play in the snow. As for Abzan Company, I could have sworn I saw it decrease as Jund started running Kalitas. I wouldn't doubt that graveyard hate becoming more prevalent could have helped push Abzan Company down, but as it stands, I think the meta is already pretty nice. Sure, it's fast, but it's incredibly diverse, and I wouldn't be surprised if it got more diverse as we get a few of these new AER cards into the format. I could be wrong, of course, I've been wrong plenty of times before.
What I have been thinking about is Tron. Now, I have to be honest in that I may have some bias, as Tron is now a super hard matchup for my pet deck, but I'm also building Gb Tron as my 2nd deck. I remember their reason for banning Birthing Pod being something along the lines of it making it difficult for them to print all sorts of new creature cards, as each one could just be thrown into Pod as a 1-of and the deck would just get better and better. Tron kind of does the same thing, as we can see has happened when Ugin, Newlamog, and World Breaker got printed. It was, at one time, manageable, but now it just gets new things as more big stuff gets printed. There is little that actually keeps it in check. I'm not saying that it's broken now, or that I think it should be banned, but I see parallels between it and Pod.
Also, on a side note, is Modern Nexus going to put out another Modern Metagame Matchup chart in the near future? The last one I saw was 2015, and the metagame has changed quite a bit since then.
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Netdecking explained, Part 2
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On Interaction
Every single competitive deck in existence is designed to limit the opponent's ability to interact in a meaningful way.
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"I don't want to believe, I want to know."
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Dredge is not dominating the format. I think I said that here. It's just pushing out all the other GY decks. Wizards didn't unban GGT to create one GY deck to rule them all. They just wanted another GY deck to exist alongside the existing ones. In that regard, Dredge has failed: there are no other top-tier GY decks. This is why Dredge should get a limited ban. You want to make the deck a little worse so people don't have to play 4-5 GY hate cards in their SBs. This will open the Tier 1/Tier 2 landscape to other GY decks coming back, while also allowing Dredge to stay Tier 2 or intermittently Tier 1. It's really a win-win.
Tron bans are dumb suggestions. Tron isn't pushing other ramp decks (Titan Breach is another option). Tron isn't pushing out other midrange decks (Jund is the most-played deck, Abzan is Top 10 and actually sees more play than Tron). Tron isn't pushing out control decks (the decks fell out of the metagame before Tron rose). Tron also doesn't have a high metagame share: it's under 5%. Tron has also been under 5% all year. We need to stop this myth that Tron limits interactive decks. It's maybe one of about 10 factors against these decks, the data hasn't backed up that claim all year, and Tron has barely been Tier 1 for all of the year.
Update should be coming out this week.
On your first point: if SFM is not broken it should not be on the banlist Period.
On your second point: It appears as tho you are making a case for SFM.
a. modern should be fun- fun is subjective so you may not like SFM but surely others would
b. let you tap into your collection for decks of the past- like an equipment deck that we have not seen in quite some time
c. not rotate- n/a
d. Consist of cards that they can and will reprint- admittedly much harder to reprint SFM or other powerful equipment in standard but she is certainly within the power level of masters sets.
then
a. diverse top tier - at this point there is almost no reason to run white now that push is being printed having a powerful white card can only HELP diversity. On top of that there are no top tier equipment decks in the format. SFM helps to make that a possiblity.
b. not being dominated by fast decks- attacking with a 4/4 on turn 4 is not in anyway "fast"
c. be at a power level where standard cards can affect the format- this is less about one card being on or off the banlist and more about the power level of the format as a whole
d. have as small a banlist as possible - speaks for itself obviously fair cards should be the ones to come off before any other. (SFM is powerful but fair)
On the whole i feel like your post was advocating for a SFM unban.
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
I feel like those were very weak arguments...
I don't think she violates any of those anymore, they're afraid of her purely from standard play. The format has evolved now. She violates and constricts decks just like how green is obligated to to run Goyf, blue must run Snap, black must run Bob
If we had something like turn 1 DRS followed by SFM I could see the issue with SFM
She's just---not that overpowered anymore, dude. She powers up blue, she powers up Abzan, she powers up Death and Taxes, and she gives life to mardu. White is still a joke in modern outside of Path, souls and it's awesome sideboard cards. White's the only color without a 2 cmc bomb-card
https://www.reddit.com/r/magicTCG/comments/4ww95b/ama_with_sam_stoddard_lead_developer_of_eldritch/d6advm9/
Notable pieces of this testing process include:
I imagine the last bullet is even more poignant now that they've killed Modern PT.
WUBRG Humans
BRW Mardu Pyromancer
UW UW "Control"
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That's a good point about Dredge. I suppose finding some way to weaken it could help make it so that other graveyard decks might do better.
Sorry, I wasn't trying to say that Tron should be banned right now. I think I specifically said that in the earlier comment, too ("I'm not saying that it's broken now, or that it should be banned"). I was attempting to point out the similarities in the Pod situation and Tron situation. Pod wasn't always dominating the format, and it took a while (and a few new cards) to start to push it. From your comment, I'm guessing that there's been quite an outcry, or constant complaint, about Tron?
Looking forward to the update! Also, what I meant specifically was the chart that showed how different decks matched up against eachother. Is that coming in the update too?
Lantern Control
(with videos)
Uc Tron
Netdecking explained
Netdecking explained, Part 2
On speculators and counterfeits
On Interaction
Every single competitive deck in existence is designed to limit the opponent's ability to interact in a meaningful way.
Record number of exclamation points on SCG homepage: 71 (6 January, 2018)
"I don't want to believe, I want to know."
-Carl Sagan
Spirits
Yeah, the existing midrange decks already beat linear aggro and combo-aggro just fine; it doesn't need Fatal Push to do that. Push lets new midrange like Sultai exist by giving it powerful cheap removal, which will still be preyed upon by big mana (even more since Push can't hit most of their threats), while Aggro will still do just fine punishing big mana.
Whereas Stoneforge Mystic means White decks not called Abzan or Eldrazi can exist because they get their shell-defining threat. Very different vectors, neither of which looks likely to be oppressive, and both of which stand to benefit the format.
WotC may still decide to go the conservative route and monitor Push's effect. But I'd be very surprised if we don't see a high-profile unbanning (really the only kind that's left, I suppose) by a year after the Ancestral Vision/Sword of the Meek announcement.
WUBRG Humans
BRW Mardu Pyromancer
UW UW "Control"
UR Blue Moon
The argument is..
That the winning 25% of its games before t4 numbers are completely misrepresented.
Bloom was, and is a grindy deck, whos power comes from it's inevitability. Not it's speed.
It's not a fast combo deck. It's just not.
In order for Bloom Titan to win before t4 you need a hand with:
(Amulet - Amulet - Summer Bloom - Titan - G Bounce land - Regular land that doesn't come in tapped) That's literally a 6 card combo......
You also need to NOT have any of the ~4 lands you need in your deck when sequencing, in your hand. (Boros Garrison, Slayers Stonghold, Sunhome, Vesuva- all NEED to be in your deck or the combo wont work)
Now do you guys really think that deck was capable of resolving a 6 card combo before before turn 4 in 1 out of 4 games, avoiding any, and all disruption?
Well, we have no idea how either card will affect the metagame. That's why I think the likeliest two changes are a limited Dredge ban with no unbans, or no changes whatsoever. I only listed SFM as a possible unban scenario because it best fits Stoddard's explanation of an easy unban Wizards could approve of in testing. Another easy unban would be JTMS, which would also fit the Stoddard description and would come in 4th on my prediction list.
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
No....
Just no.
Inquisition would have taken your Amulet, or Bloom. Thoughtsieze would have taken your Amulet, Bloom, or Titan. Bolt would have killed Azusa.
Stop acting like the deck is invulnerable to disruption.
Just talking about BGx, That deck has so many answers to Bloom. Decay kills Amulets, Pulse kills Amulets & Titans, Terminate, Slaughter Pact, Murderous Cut, etc, etc, etc kills Titans. Discard takes all the combo pieces. Liliana kills Titan, Ghost Quarters kill bounce lands, Bolts kill Azusas..
Turn 2 Titan is not a 100% win rate. Jesus. A) you only have 4 Titans you can chain. B) If your chaining Titans you aren't attacking with Titans. C) even chained Titans can be stopped. D) Chaining Titans takes perfect sequencing, and again when chaining Titans you present no actual offense
Prohibit is a very odd choice on this list. That card would be totally fine for Modern. Revolt Prohibit would have really rocked.
Honestly, I think JTMS passes the Stoddard unban test more handily than SFM, but I also don't know if they'd look at JTMS at all. He's not really a solution to fast, linear, non-interactive decks. SFM at least addresses that issue, even if she might end up being too strong.