Join the MTGS community to discuss the tournament, the game, cool decks, neat tech, and all things Modern.
All forum rules apply here but we are generally more lenient on spam (e.g. "zomg sick play!") and ban talk (e.g. "Well, it looks like the Twin ban has had a good/bad impact based on these results") in these kinds of threads. We want the discussion to be more free-form, like we're all gathering at a Magic game store to watch the event together. Don't flame, don't troll, use common sense, and have a great time!
DISCLAIMER: I am not promoting nor encouraging betting. If this post is unacceptable, please take it down.
I saw that pinnacle sports are offering odds on the Pro Tour. Perhaps I will make a small bet to make it more exiting to watch.
An interesting category of odds are "how many basic [basic land type] will be in the top 8", with the following odds:
Number of Basic Islands in the Top 8 (Incl. SB)?
Over 5.5 Cards -1.925
Under5.5 Cards -1.925
Number of Basic Mountains in the Top 8 (Incl. SB)?
Over 7.5 Cards 1.970
Under 7.5 Cards 1.884
Number of Basic Forests in the Top 8 (Incl. SB)?
Over 5.5 Cards 1.925
Under 5.5 Cards 1.925
Number of Basic Plains in the Top 8 (Incl. SB)?
Over 3.5 Cards 1.862
Under 3.5 Cards 1.990
Number of Basic Swamps in the Top 8 (Incl. SB)?
Over 7.5 Cards 1.925
Under 7.5 Cards 1.925
I guess a single Merfolk deck making the top 8 could be enough to land an "over" bet on the Islands. If you balieve that burn does not make top8, would the "below" bet on mountain make sense?
That also depends on the route wizards wanted to take. The deck could survive banning one of its payoff cards like Plating, Ravager, etc. It wouldn't be as good, but it'd be still be a deck. However, banning Mox Opal would really kill the deck.
I truly wish Affinity will not win this PT, for the sake of keeping using my full powered Affinity in the next year.
Sounds weird, right?
Given that the top 8 is best of 5 now, I think it is unlikely Affinity will win. Affinity's biggest strength is game 1, and then squeaking in a SB game. 4 potential SB games are bad for Affinity.
Good catch! I wonder how the increased number of SB games has affected the player's choice of decks, if it did at all.
If anything I think it made Jund/Junk/other midrange decks a much stronger choice. UWR Control, for example, really shines in the sideboard. Also, if Jund is up against Eldrazi and brings in 4x Fulminators, a Surgical or two, and some Crumble to Dust, it is going to have a much better shot of taking the match.
The high number of SB games is an interesting change from the 3 games of the rest of the tournament. Decks that excel at fast wins but are easily hated could potentially reach the Top 8 with more success than other decks, but then suffer there.
If I had the option, I would probably prefer a faster deck for the purposes of being rested and on my game for a long day of Magic. But that might come back to bite you in the Top 8.
Good catch! I wonder how the increased number of SB games has affected the player's choice of decks, if it did at all.
At the first level, it seems to favor fairer decks, e.g. the Junds and Abzans of the world. More specifically, it probably benefits the decks that stand to gain the most from sideboarding, which could include less fair decks. For instance, Grishoalbrand can power out the turn two Blood Moon against unsuspecting opponents.
EDIT: The fact that "Goryo's Blue" is listed as a combo deck worth showcasing does not suggest anything positive about the commentator's Modern knowledge (or agenda).
Twitch: http://www.twitch.tv/magic
Wizards coverage: http://magic.wizards.com/en/events/coverage/ptogw
Twitter: https://twitter.com/hashtag/PTOGW?src=hash
Join the MTGS community to discuss the tournament, the game, cool decks, neat tech, and all things Modern.
All forum rules apply here but we are generally more lenient on spam (e.g. "zomg sick play!") and ban talk (e.g. "Well, it looks like the Twin ban has had a good/bad impact based on these results") in these kinds of threads. We want the discussion to be more free-form, like we're all gathering at a Magic game store to watch the event together. Don't flame, don't troll, use common sense, and have a great time!
From another thread.
EDIT: Good Lord my body is ready for another Modern PT.
Sounds weird, right?
Anything, but nothing at the moment...
Modern:
WUBRGAmulet Titan, WUBRGHuman
WUBRAd Nauseam, WBRGDeath Shadow, UBRGScapeshift, UBRGDredge
WURJeskai Nahiri, WURCheeri0s, WBGCounter Company, WRGBurn, UBRMadcap Moon, BRGJund Midrange
UBTurn,BRGriselbrand Reanimator, WGKnight Company, RGRG Tron, RGRG Ponza, XAffinity, XEldrazi Tron
One PT win shouldn't matter. It's only a problem for Wizards if Affinity won the PT and then proceeded to win events for the rest of the year.
I think affinity is the front-runner going into the event and I look forward to seeing how the pros have approached this event!
KnightfallGWUR
Azorius Control UW
Burn RBG
Given that the top 8 is best of 5 now, I think it is unlikely Affinity will win. Affinity's biggest strength is game 1, and then squeaking in a SB game. 4 potential SB games are bad for Affinity.
KnightfallGWUR
Azorius Control UW
Burn RBG
If anything I think it made Jund/Junk/other midrange decks a much stronger choice. UWR Control, for example, really shines in the sideboard. Also, if Jund is up against Eldrazi and brings in 4x Fulminators, a Surgical or two, and some Crumble to Dust, it is going to have a much better shot of taking the match.
If I had the option, I would probably prefer a faster deck for the purposes of being rested and on my game for a long day of Magic. But that might come back to bite you in the Top 8.
Check out Odds//Ends - My articles on Quirky Cards and Oddball Builds
Long-time PucaTrade member and sometime author. Send me cards!
Currently playing Knight of the Reliquary - Retreat to Coralhelm Combo
At the first level, it seems to favor fairer decks, e.g. the Junds and Abzans of the world. More specifically, it probably benefits the decks that stand to gain the most from sideboarding, which could include less fair decks. For instance, Grishoalbrand can power out the turn two Blood Moon against unsuspecting opponents.
what decks are doing right now?
This is the last draft round. Modern begins soon!
MTGO/MTGA: Tyclone
My Primers ~ GWx Vizier Company ~ Knightfall ~ RG Eldrazi ~ Green's Sun's Zenith
More Brews ~ Modern Four Horsemen ~ Gitrog Dredge
3h55m for future reference
| Ad Nauseam
| Infect
Big Johnny.
This discussion of format shakeups on camera makes me upset.
Thanks Randy!
EDIT: The fact that "Goryo's Blue" is listed as a combo deck worth showcasing does not suggest anything positive about the commentator's Modern knowledge (or agenda).
Marath, Will of the Wild
Friendly Kess Twin Combo
Tatyova - Sir Bounce A Lot
Gonti's Luxury Pie
Prime (Eldrazi) Speaker Zegana (Retired)
Thanks again, Randy!