How do you guys feel about Azcanta in Bug? I feel its a more resilient Bob pretty much, as the upkeep scry often works similarly to Bob which often draws past excess lands on top of the library. However, its not a guaranteed CA unless it flips and it can't dig for threats which is something that bothers a little bit in a midrange deck. It can get PWs though.
I forgot who turned me onto Grim Flayer a while back, but it is probably the best card in the deck hands down.
I can also post SB plans I wrote down if anyone is interested in seeing those.
Interesting list. In my mind, since you only got 15 blue mana sources you can't support a turn 3 Clique or a turn 4 Jace potentially (you would need 19 or at least 18 blue sources for that). This is not something I would like personally. Also I don't think that I like 4 manlands in a 22 land build, in my experience, the etb tapped clause does hurt you too much. Especially when you run 3 LoTV and 3 Jace this hurts. In my liking 22 lands is also too few especially when you don't have cantrips and have 7 three drops and 3 four drops. For a consistant manabase you would run 24 lands for such a mana curve.
How do you guys feel about Azcanta in Bug? I feel its a more resilient Bob pretty much, as the upkeep scry often works similarly to Bob which often draws past excess lands on top of the library. However, its not a guaranteed CA unless it flips and it can't dig for threats which is something that bothers a little bit in a midrange deck. It can get PWs though.
So I will say this, I had 0 issues with the mana. Having blue when I needed it was never an issue. Having a Tar Pit enter tapped, never impacted my ability to make the most optimal play. It is easy to sit back an analyze the mana, in fact I have a lot of people who are critical about it - but They are never people who have actually sat down with the list or invested time in the list. If your turn 4 land is a Tar Pit, you will have no shortage of 3 mana plays and often times they are correct over just slamming down a JTMS anyways. If you lead off with a Thoughtseize --> Goyf or Flayer --> Fatal Push + Goyf or Flayer --> Liliana, you are in a huge position. You can interchange your turn 3 and 4 play and still be ahead. You could mix and match your 1 drops and still be ahead. The bottom line is that the deck is redundant and linear in what it does and streamlined to do it in the most efficient way possible. This is a beatdown deck at its core and I think Sultai decks that deviate from playing the beatdown are inferior based on previous iterations I have worked with. But that is kind of the byproduct of playing with U/B cards alongside G/B cards, they play at odds. I think most people suffer from picking a direction and sticking with it and shaping what they can around it from there. In fairness, I think swapping out 1 Vendilion Clique for a 23rd land is acceptable. I think 24 land in Sultai Midrange is just bad. The deck, even with cantrips, struggles with having weak late game cantrips and excess land is the absolute worst. I would rather draw dead discard spells than excess land.
I also completely dropped cantrips because they are at odds with everything Sultai Midrange should be doing. Dark Confidant and Grim Flayer offer primier card selection while not impeeding on your overall plan A and plan B.
It may seem like a striking list, but I didn't arrive at the numbers and selections out of coincidence. I have put a lot of work into this list and have worked with just about everything under the sun when it comes to Sultai, extensively.
All this is not to say that the deck does not have its issues.
1) I cannot beat KCI consistently, it is an incredibly difficult match up.
2) The deck is susceptible to crumbling to consecutive redraws in a heavily favored board position, because it has no actual card draw on the cheap outside of Dark Confidant.
3) The redundancy and streamlined manabase means the deck mulligans poorly if your hand is clunky, but you can reliably keep a larger percentage of 7 cards, it just sucks when you have to mulligan.
4) Because it plays like Jund, it begs the question "Why not Jund?". I say this, because most sultai decks trying to run more blue for things like Serum Visions, don't actually play like Jund - I know because I am a Jund player pre-Sultai.
Overall, I am pleased with this deck enough to use it as a core shell and it only gets better with GRN. I will be sticking with the core into GP Portland in December with 100% confidence in it.
How do you guys feel about Azcanta in Bug? I feel its a more resilient Bob pretty much, as the upkeep scry often works similarly to Bob which often draws past excess lands on top of the library. However, its not a guaranteed CA unless it flips and it can't dig for threats which is something that bothers a little bit in a midrange deck. It can get PWs though.
Search for Acanta isn't going to block for you vs Humans, Merfolk, Elves, traditional Affinity. Search for Azcanta cannot leverage actual pressure vs Control decks either. Search for Azcanta isn't letting you snowball discard spells vs decks like Tron.
I consider Dark Confidant to be vastly superior to Search for Azcanta. Take that with a grain of salt because my original itterations ran Tireless Trackers, a Tasigur, and Searches and Search was the first cut I ever made with Sultai.
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If your turn 4 land is a Tar Pit, you will have no shortage of 3 mana plays and often times they are correct over just slamming down a JTMS anyways. If you lead off with a Thoughtseize --> Goyf or Flayer --> Fatal Push + Goyf or Flayer --> Liliana, you are in a huge position. You can interchange your turn 3 and 4 play and still be ahead.
I am not as worried when the 4th land comes into play tapped, I am worried that I often have opening hands containing Creeping Tar Pits. This land delays or hinders the typical best sequence of turn 1 discard, turn 2 threat. Taking into account that you only run 22 lands it could be very likely that you have a 2 land hand as your opener, which includes a high risk of only having tar pit as available landrop on turn 1 or 2. If you compare this to Jund, it runs ideally 24-25 lands, and often 3-4 manlands alongside having about 11 one drops, about 14 two drops, 7 three drops and 3-4 four drops. And I have to say, given the fact that your manacurve is pretty much exactly the same, those scenarios described by me should almost be guaranteed to happen. I often hate the 3 Ravines in my 24 landbase in Jund for that reason. Since I am coming from this (and I think the comparison is quite reasonable) I personally just can't see this working in a consistant way (except for Grim Flayer, see below). Just to explain my thought process here.
I also completely dropped cantrips because they are at odds with everything Sultai Midrange should be doing. Dark Confidant and Grim Flayer offer primier card selection while not impeeding on your overall plan A and plan B.
Well, Sultai is not an established deck yet, so why should be know what the deck should be doing? I personally wouldnt stick to any distinct point of view on an archetype like this. To add, Dark Confidant doesn't provide card selection. It just provides pure CA without any selection.
I think your success does have to do with Grim Flayer to a big extent though. The card filtering is a good way to find landdrops and curve out well. Its just that I don't find Grim Flayer to be a very consistant enabler for this. It kinda seems that the greedy manabase relies on Flayer to help with filtering, which I am not a big fan personally. I always hated the card. Delirium is very inconsistant (even with support) and him needing to connect complicates things even more. However, when he works, he is fantastic surely. So I get why your version runs well. If you exclude Flayer though (or when Flayer doesn't connect), I think it gets tough on a consistant basis.
I have been messing around all week with Sultai lists. Just playing anything I see online or in this forum. I did not like the Todd Stevens list posted on SCG. Goyf in control lists feels weird to me without Splinter Twin. The above list is with Assassin's Trophy added to superna7ural with a different sideboard. The other change I made was to swap darkslick shore for blooming marsh and one less tarpit for a tree top. Completely agree 22 lands seems low for a midrange list, but after playing games today I never ran into that issue for some reason. The Sultai manabase has always been tricky and there is def tension between Lili and Jace/Clique in the mana. I think mid-range is the place to be, especially if Trophy encourages more goyf decks in the format.
I have been messing around all week with Sultai lists. Just playing anything I see online or in this forum. I did not like the Todd Stevens list posted on SCG. Goyf in control lists feels weird to me without Splinter Twin. The above list is with Assassin's Trophy added to superna7ural with a different sideboard. The other change I made was to swap darkslick shore for blooming marsh and one less tarpit for a tree top. Completely agree 22 lands seems low for a midrange list, but after playing games today I never ran into that issue for some reason. The Sultai manabase has always been tricky and there is def tension between Lili and Jace/Clique in the mana. I think mid-range is the place to be, especially if Trophy encourages more goyf decks in the format.
I think the number 22 just sounds bad, but the reality is my list plays 28 cards in the main that cost 2 or less mana, only 7 cards that cost 3 mana, and only 3 cards that cost 4 mana. You also have to consider the heavy filtering mechanics you have access to. The curve is exceptionally low and you only ever really need to hit 4 mana in a game. 5 or 6 is optimal and then you want to just stop seeing lands.
I may caution against replacing all 3 Blooming Marsh for Darkslick Shores, but let me know how it pans out for you.
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Congrats on the T8, Superna. I'd like to see the sideboard plans you mentioned if you wouldn't mind sharing.
Your list reminds me of something I saw Todd Stevens talking about when Jace was first unbanned. He predicted JTMS would be best in a midrange shell where it's reasonable to protect him with creatures and abuse his +0 and +2 abilities, rather than relying on his -1 (obviously still using it when necessary).
No scavenging ooze at all? What are your thoughts on the card? From my small amount of experience practicing with Sultai Mid lately, it looks like you'd get ran over by Bridgevine. Did you play against the deck at all?
Nissa, Steward of Elements - How often were you able to +0 her for value? or was she mostly just a scry 2 engine (totally awesome even at that)
Do you feel a single Sunken Ruins would've helped reach UU & BB more consistently?
7x spot removal, 4x Decay and 3x Push - How do you feel about these numbers? Was Decay relevant often in enough in your matches (i.e. non-creature target) or could you have maybe switched these numbers. I'm just thinking about mana efficiency in the first few turns against something like Humans, Spirits, or Affinity.
You seem very confident in your deck list so please don't just debate my points out of defensive habit. Dark Confidant has to be the card I'm most surprised about. Hoogland and Stevens (among other respected players) have offered thoughts that Bob isn't as good in Sultai as BG Rock or Jund, for a number of other reasons but also because we have great card advantage engines in Snapcaster and Tracker. I know you mentioned you dislike Tracker, and I haven't played with the card enough to offer an opinion, but Hoogland speaks really highly of her. So much so that I'm buying into a playset and trying it out. She does beg for a higher land count though, and that's valuable deck space right there...
To offer a concession, I'm really glad to see someone performing well with the deck at all, number 1. And then number 2 - way to go Creeping Tar Pit! IMO it's the best manland and I'm happy to see a list with 4x placing well. Also tipping my hat to running all 8x discard spells. This is another fringe tech I've been pushing my in BGx decks since before Jund Shadow started doing it. Especially alongside LOTV, who allows you to pitch unwanted discards later, and JTMS who allows you to just reshuffle them back in.
I think the number 22 just sounds bad, but the reality is my list plays 28 cards in the main that cost 2 or less mana, only 7 cards that cost 3 mana, and only 3 cards that cost 4 mana. You also have to consider the heavy filtering mechanics you have access to. The curve is exceptionally low and you only ever really need to hit 4 mana in a game. 5 or 6 is optimal and then you want to just stop seeing lands.
I may caution against replacing all 3 Blooming Marsh for Darkslick Shores, but let me know how it pans out for you.
Just to reiterate and, your mana curve vs a typical Jund manacurve:
Sultai:
11 one drops
15 two drops
9 three drops
3 four drops
And I did count snapcaster as 3 drops, since its actually not a intended 2 drop obviously.
Jund:
11 one drops
13 two drops
8 three drops
4 four drops
So overall the curve isn't really exceptionally low you describe. 7-9 three drops and 3 four drops are a lot, not few. I think it is important to point that out. To add, with 22 lands, you cannot hit 4 lands in a consistant manner alone. Let alone going to 5 or 6 lands. The landdrops you describe is something what a 24-25 landbase offers, not a 22 landbase (naturally without filtering). You are only consistantly hitting 3 lands without filtering. And all that without taking into account the 4 manlands. So, like already said, this curve is generally on the greed side, but you rely on your flayers to filter your draw to cope with that. The way I am seeing that, If Flayers don't work in a particular matchup, its gonna get tough.
And for further reference, here is my personal curve for a 24 landbase Jund deck:
13 one drops
14 two drops
6 three drops
3 four drops
Congrats on the T8, Superna. I'd like to see the sideboard plans you mentioned if you wouldn't mind sharing.
Your list reminds me of something I saw Todd Stevens talking about when Jace was first unbanned. He predicted JTMS would be best in a midrange shell where it's reasonable to protect him with creatures and abuse his +0 and +2 abilities, rather than relying on his -1 (obviously still using it when necessary).
No scavenging ooze at all? What are your thoughts on the card? From my small amount of experience practicing with Sultai Mid lately, it looks like you'd get ran over by Bridgevine. Did you play against the deck at all?
Nissa, Steward of Elements - How often were you able to +0 her for value? or was she mostly just a scry 2 engine (totally awesome even at that)
Do you feel a single Sunken Ruins would've helped reach UU & BB more consistently?
7x spot removal, 4x Decay and 3x Push - How do you feel about these numbers? Was Decay relevant often in enough in your matches (i.e. non-creature target) or could you have maybe switched these numbers. I'm just thinking about mana efficiency in the first few turns against something like Humans, Spirits, or Affinity.
You seem very confident in your deck list so please don't just debate my points out of defensive habit. Dark Confidant has to be the card I'm most surprised about. Hoogland and Stevens (among other respected players) have offered thoughts that Bob isn't as good in Sultai as BG Rock or Jund, for a number of other reasons but also because we have great card advantage engines in Snapcaster and Tracker. I know you mentioned you dislike Tracker, and I haven't played with the card enough to offer an opinion, but Hoogland speaks really highly of her. So much so that I'm buying into a playset and trying it out. She does beg for a higher land count though, and that's valuable deck space right there...
To offer a concession, I'm really glad to see someone performing well with the deck at all, number 1. And then number 2 - way to go Creeping Tar Pit! IMO it's the best manland and I'm happy to see a list with 4x placing well. Also tipping my hat to running all 8x discard spells. This is another fringe tech I've been pushing my in BGx decks since before Jund Shadow started doing it. Especially alongside LOTV, who allows you to pitch unwanted discards later, and JTMS who allows you to just reshuffle them back in.
I will post my SB plans in the morning for everyone.
I have ran 1-2 Scavenging Ooze fairly regularly. In all honesty, I prefer the card in Jund more than Sultai as you get more value beyond it just being a GY hate card. Your Bolts allow you to reach with Ooze, Sultai does not have much reach for Ooze to really put in work with as little effort as Jund does. AS for the lifegain, a common issue I have had is that no amount of lifegain short of running multiple Thragtusk or Courser are going to give you enough for the burn match. I instead opted for 3 Spell Snare out of the board for this match (and others) because it hits almost everything and if you keep trading 1 for 1 with them, they eventually have to aim burn at creatures if they want to live. So Scavenging Ooze wasn't something I considered all that valuable in a match like Burn. Like I said, I go back and forth on having them in the deck and I think my overall conclusion is that they are good, but there are likely better cards overall. As for Bridgevine, the deck can be a battle sometimes. You really need to keep aggressive hands in this match and prioritize creatures and removal over walkers, but the match has not been unwinnable for me. I put it around the 50%-60% in my favor depending. Draws for this match are incredibly situational based on how both players open the game.
Nissa does sometimes 0 for value off Dark Confidant, but mainly she is just a +2 to set up your draws and then ult for damage. I am pleased with her, but may be willing to cut her in favor of some GRN slots. I remember someone placing well in SCG Open (13th or so) that spoke highly of her so I tried her out and she works well for what you put into her. Definately not a 1 of that I have regret at any point.
There is actually 9 spot removal spells if you count Pulse. I am happy with that number. I settled on 4x Abrupt Decay vs 4x Fatal Push as a concession to likely running into more Tron decks and Spirits decks than Humans or Affinity. I think a 4x split vs a 3x split really depends on what matches you want to hedge for. My removal count switches up to 3 Push, 2 Decay, 3 Trophy and 1 Pulse after GRN and that still slots me in at 9.
Dark Confidant is probably the best draw for Sultai in my opinion. I tried Visions, I tried Bauble, I tried Opt. The problem was that super aggressive decks can go under those well. Dark Confidant can at least serve as a blocker and draw cards depending on what the game state is like. I think he is absolutely underrated. He is the bees knees vs anything that isn't Aggro. You can set him up well with Nissa and Grim Flayers to boot. The problem I had with Tracker was that too often I was in situations where I wanted to spend mana to remain proactive and Clues were essentially useless until I was behind and needed them, if I had any to begin with. Sultai, in my experience, really needs to focus on T1 discard T2 threat T3 repeat and Tracker does not follow that plan well in Sultai. He is at odds with a lot of what the GB slots want to be doing and more inline with what the UG slots want to be doing - and we don't run any real UG slots. I have the same issues with counterspells in the main, they are at odds with the GB slots while wanting to work a UB angle, and we don't run a UB angle. I have seen some of Hooglands Sultai streams, and to be honest his play with these decks is abysmal, I take almost nothing he says to heart when it comes to Sultai. I agree with Davis that Tracker is one of the best cards in Modern, but I think the rest of Modern is an entirely different beast with different appetites where Tracker fits better. I don't think that is a reason to run it in a deck that isn't really hungry for that kind of card. I share the same sentiments with Serum Visions, great card, but for different decks.
Tar Pit is incredibly powerful and arguably the best manland in modern, the problem is that it doesn't have a home which makes it appear weaker on the surface. I also think Tar Pit is why the deck, which plays like Jund, can work with 22 land where Jund cannot. Jund has Ravine which cost more mana (which is incredibly relevant when you want to leave mana open and attack.
As for 8 Discard spells, I think 8 is an important number. I have ran less but you really want consistent turn 1 and 2 plays and a turn 1 discard spell makes your turn 2 creates so much more relevant than most other turn 2 creatures in Modern.
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Ravine is definitely not the primary reason why Jund runs 24-25 lands. Its simple mathematics shown by Frank Karsten (https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/how-many-lands-do-you-need-to-consistently-hit-your-land-drops/ or https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/frank-analysis-how-many-colored-mana-sources-do-you-need-to-consistently-cast-your-spells/) which adds up to that number being necessary to either hit landdrop 4 on turn 4 consistantly or have the required colour of mana available on the respective turn you want to cast a given card. This does not take into account the activation cost of Ravine on a primary stance. And vice versa Tar Pit should also not be the reason why Sultai can just run 22 lands when running the same curve as Jund. It actually doesn't make much sense when thinking about it: one mana less to activate should make it possible to run 2-3 (!) fewer lands as well as run one more manland alongside with it? Like mentioned, you can only run 22 lands in Sultai either by running cantrips alongside it (wheras 4 cantrips substitute for 1 land) or by relying on a filtering mechanic (like in your case Grim Flayer). This is overall fine to do, but its incorrect to state that the 22 landbase just works on its own in Sultai while running the same curve as Jund and no cantrips. This can't simply be true. And its important to acknowledge that, otherwise people will have false expectations from a given manabase going onward. That being said, your observations are correct (which is your 22 landbase builds works) but your explanations are incorrect (which is not that the curve is low enough and due to the cheaper manland).
On a different note, I tried a different version of Sulati which excludes the delve threats for now:
I am at this point not really sure what to run in the SB, but this version also works really well. It has without cantrips 17 blue sources, 20 black sources and 14 green sources. All this numbers go up by 1 when you include the 4 Opt. If you wanna know the numbers for having turn 1 blue or black then you need to exclude cantrips and also tar pits, which still leaves 15 blue sources for a turn 1 opt (you need 14 for that minimum) and 18 sources for a turn 1 discard/push spell which is also plenty. With 23 lands and 4 cantrips you should find your 4th landdrop relatively often which is about 71.3 % according to the hypergeometric calculations. 4 lands is rather important to hit in order to have Snapcaster + Trophy or Tar Pit activation or 2 two drops at the ready. Given the fact that it will only happen 71.3 % of the time (by natural draws) this is actually on the low end of things. However, the deck should be able to operate on 3 lands well enough, as you technically can't cast multiple higher CMC spells, cast Jace as well as activate Tar Pit in this stage.
Also I figured Blood Moon hoses this deck tremendously, for which reason I am pretty high on 9 fetchlands, which also goes well with Tracker. I expect Tracker to be great in the upcoming meta, since you also have to expect Trophy being used against us, which would make Tracker either a first kill or a better grindy creature, since you also get clues off of opposing trophies.
I think you cut out a huge chunk of context when it comes to why I run 22 land...
I don't think so, I explained it in great detail over the course of several posts. For me it seems you are treating the deck to being more a faster approach with the typical sequence of turn 1 discard, turn 2 threat, etc. However, your justifications to run 22 lands only with your particular manacurve have been either that is allegedly very low (which it isn't, as I stated as a counterargument) as well as that Tar Pit costs one less mana to activate, to which I also gave counterarguments for. According to your statements, you expect that you also hit your 4th landdrop fairly consistantly, to which I can only give you the numbers: Its about 53 % by natural draws. Also for reference, Frank Karstens statement on a 22 landbuild without cantrips: "You need 2 lands on turn 2 every game (99.2%) but would like 3 lands on turn 3 (84.7%) for several 3-drops" Your experience shows that it works, which is fine, but I am trying to tell you that you are quite heavily relying on your filtering to perform well. This is of course also fine, so no critique on that part, my only issue is that the explanations you give for a 22 land build to be viable here is a bit off. If you disagree then I am happy to hear your exact argumentation on why.
I think the discard suite available to us in modern is too good to ignore completely. I think even in a heavy Counterspell shell like the one Todd Stevens posted when Trophy was first spoiled had a 2/2 split of TS/IOK.
I would say you want at least 3-4 main deck regardless of your configuration. Playing your deck without Delve threats also opens up the door for Logic Knot which I find to be one of the best counterspells in modern. (Obviously you could still support 2-3 LK alongside 1-2 Tasigur)
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Personally I'm not sold on the 22 lands in a mid-range deck with no cantrips. I would at least run 23 but I like to err on the side of caution for mid/Ctrl decks (and subsequently err on the side of aggression when piloting fast decks).
If I was to run any counterspells in the main deck it would be only Spell Snare or Stubborn denial. The low cost to wide hit-box ratio is the only thing that seems good enough (for main deck). Stuff like Remand doesn't belong in a mid-range deck unless you're trying to combo off like Twin
Discard is definitely too good to pass. In my mind discard is the closest we can get to a "keep unfair things in check" type of effect like Force of Will in legacy. Therefore I am pretty high on at least 6 mainboard.
I think Stubborn Denial is not good enough for a midrange deck. It is close to useless on its own, it is more of a tempo-style of card, which requires synergy.
Im all for the discard and no counters train. I just dont think they play well together. To make counters work in this deck, it would end up being a different style of deck entirely.
Have been testing this list a little bit with proxied assassin's trophies. It seems pretty smooth and reasonable- definitely a very grindy and satisfying playstlye winning with liliana and jace side by side- jace is probably the biggest reason to justify the blue splash instead of playing straight G/B rock or jund. I enjoy having so many lines of play with the planeswalker combo when you get them working in tandem- it gives the deck a lot of flexibility and allows you to attack your opponent's hand, board, and topdecks from multiple angles. Counterspells don't work particularly well with the good disruptive black cards in modern (better in legacy because counterspells are free), so I left them out. Lots of 4-ofs and 2-ofs because I want to keep things simple.
I feel like this deck has the potential to create a lot of nongames of magic- you curve out with 1 drop discard/removal, 2 drop threat or removal spell, 3 drop liliana kill their only remaining creature or start forcing them to discard their hand, 4 drop jace and start fatesealing them and you've basically just slammed the door shut on them having any chance of getting back in the game.
One slot I'm definitely unsure of is thought scour- I'm wondering if it's just better to play it for the potential of a turn 2 tasigur or if it's worth it to play a cantrip that gives better card selection like serum visions- I can't really justify opt because we don't gain much from playing on the opponent's turn- this is not a reactive control deck, after all, so the sorcery speed is not so much an issue as it is in draw-go control style decks.
Another thing to consider is whether or not cantrips are even worth it in the first place in a deck like this. It's hard for me to cut them because they do feel like the glue that helps you curve out and hit your land drops your powerful planeswalkers while helping enable cheap tasigurs.
I think the general consensus is that Sultai doesn't necessarily need the blue cantrips, unless you're building more of a controllish deck in the first place. The performers we've seen recently are using blue basically only for Snap/Jace and sideboard options.
If you drop Thought Scour then you're open to Blooming Marsh which is much better for Scavenging Ooze.
While i haven't had the chance to thoroughly test my current discard/stub build, i fully intend to do so once i get my playset of trophies. My working theory is to follow the template Grixis Death Shadow laid out, minus the lifeloss and empty cycling. Id like you to walk me through why you dont think the discard into fatty threat into "protect the queen" with stubs wont work, and please understand that im not being snide or dismissive. I would genuinely like an outside perspective, yours in particular.
I think you cut out a huge chunk of context when it comes to why I run 22 land...
I According to your statements, you expect that you also hit your 4th landdrop fairly consistantly, to which I can only give you the numbers: Its about 53 % by natural draws. Also for reference, Frank Karstens statement on a 22 landbuild without cantrips: "You need 2 lands on turn 2 every game (99.2%) but would like 3 lands on turn 3 (84.7%) for several 3-drops" Your experience shows that it works, which is fine, but I am trying to tell you that you are quite heavily relying on your filtering to perform well.
I get that you are drinking that Karsten kool-aid, and while I don't fault you for it - there is evidence to suggest that I am not the only one experiencing little issue with the low land count of 22. Another user just posted that they didn't run into any issues while playtesting with 22 lands.
There was a list that did well with 21 lands a while back and even the pilot stated they intended to stick with 21 land. In fact there have also been multiple 5-0 MTGO lists running 22 land earlier this year, arguably one of the notable constants from lists that have actually done well within the archetype since the JTMS unbanning. It has also been cited that even with SV, the card is primarily used for filtering late game instead of draw fixing early game. Strange that that would be the conclusion with a 21-23 land count list that is seeing success, right?
Do the numbers seem suspect according to Karsten? Sure. Do they seem suspect according to posted results? Not really. I think you are operating on a few cognitive biases here.
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Keeping the board clean in the early turns with trophy's flexibility has definitely made slamming jace earlier much easier- you now have nice outs to cards like hollow one or gurmag angler with trophy.
For now I actually think that thought scour might be correct- not only will it help fuel the potential turn 2 tasigur, but it also keeps up the card type count for goyf- something that can drastically go down when delving for tasigur- thought scour definitely reduces some of this tension. You can also do nifty stuff like thought scour yourself post brainstorm if you are brainstorm locked.
I wanted Pulse for an additional removal spell for creature strategies as I only really have 4 Push. The Trophies aren't at their best in this matchups. But I am considering playing a Decay or Cast Down as well over the Pulse and also the 4th Trophy. From testing, the land really matters and it gets really awkward when you have multiple in your opening hands. So I would probably go -1 Trophy and -1 Pulse +1 Decay and +1 Cast Down/second Decay in the future.
So I will say this, I had 0 issues with the mana. Having blue when I needed it was never an issue. Having a Tar Pit enter tapped, never impacted my ability to make the most optimal play. It is easy to sit back an analyze the mana, in fact I have a lot of people who are critical about it - but They are never people who have actually sat down with the list or invested time in the list. If your turn 4 land is a Tar Pit, you will have no shortage of 3 mana plays and often times they are correct over just slamming down a JTMS anyways. If you lead off with a Thoughtseize --> Goyf or Flayer --> Fatal Push + Goyf or Flayer --> Liliana, you are in a huge position. You can interchange your turn 3 and 4 play and still be ahead. You could mix and match your 1 drops and still be ahead. The bottom line is that the deck is redundant and linear in what it does and streamlined to do it in the most efficient way possible. This is a beatdown deck at its core and I think Sultai decks that deviate from playing the beatdown are inferior based on previous iterations I have worked with. But that is kind of the byproduct of playing with U/B cards alongside G/B cards, they play at odds. I think most people suffer from picking a direction and sticking with it and shaping what they can around it from there. In fairness, I think swapping out 1 Vendilion Clique for a 23rd land is acceptable. I think 24 land in Sultai Midrange is just bad. The deck, even with cantrips, struggles with having weak late game cantrips and excess land is the absolute worst. I would rather draw dead discard spells than excess land.
I also completely dropped cantrips because they are at odds with everything Sultai Midrange should be doing. Dark Confidant and Grim Flayer offer primier card selection while not impeeding on your overall plan A and plan B.
It may seem like a striking list, but I didn't arrive at the numbers and selections out of coincidence. I have put a lot of work into this list and have worked with just about everything under the sun when it comes to Sultai, extensively.
All this is not to say that the deck does not have its issues.
1) I cannot beat KCI consistently, it is an incredibly difficult match up.
2) The deck is susceptible to crumbling to consecutive redraws in a heavily favored board position, because it has no actual card draw on the cheap outside of Dark Confidant.
3) The redundancy and streamlined manabase means the deck mulligans poorly if your hand is clunky, but you can reliably keep a larger percentage of 7 cards, it just sucks when you have to mulligan.
4) Because it plays like Jund, it begs the question "Why not Jund?". I say this, because most sultai decks trying to run more blue for things like Serum Visions, don't actually play like Jund - I know because I am a Jund player pre-Sultai.
Overall, I am pleased with this deck enough to use it as a core shell and it only gets better with GRN. I will be sticking with the core into GP Portland in December with 100% confidence in it.
Search for Acanta isn't going to block for you vs Humans, Merfolk, Elves, traditional Affinity. Search for Azcanta cannot leverage actual pressure vs Control decks either. Search for Azcanta isn't letting you snowball discard spells vs decks like Tron.
I consider Dark Confidant to be vastly superior to Search for Azcanta. Take that with a grain of salt because my original itterations ran Tireless Trackers, a Tasigur, and Searches and Search was the first cut I ever made with Sultai.
STANDARD|UW Control MODERN| UBG Midrange PAUPER| UG Fog COMMANDER| UBG The Mimeoplasm
I am not as worried when the 4th land comes into play tapped, I am worried that I often have opening hands containing Creeping Tar Pits. This land delays or hinders the typical best sequence of turn 1 discard, turn 2 threat. Taking into account that you only run 22 lands it could be very likely that you have a 2 land hand as your opener, which includes a high risk of only having tar pit as available landrop on turn 1 or 2. If you compare this to Jund, it runs ideally 24-25 lands, and often 3-4 manlands alongside having about 11 one drops, about 14 two drops, 7 three drops and 3-4 four drops. And I have to say, given the fact that your manacurve is pretty much exactly the same, those scenarios described by me should almost be guaranteed to happen. I often hate the 3 Ravines in my 24 landbase in Jund for that reason. Since I am coming from this (and I think the comparison is quite reasonable) I personally just can't see this working in a consistant way (except for Grim Flayer, see below). Just to explain my thought process here.
Well, Sultai is not an established deck yet, so why should be know what the deck should be doing? I personally wouldnt stick to any distinct point of view on an archetype like this. To add, Dark Confidant doesn't provide card selection. It just provides pure CA without any selection.
I think your success does have to do with Grim Flayer to a big extent though. The card filtering is a good way to find landdrops and curve out well. Its just that I don't find Grim Flayer to be a very consistant enabler for this. It kinda seems that the greedy manabase relies on Flayer to help with filtering, which I am not a big fan personally. I always hated the card. Delirium is very inconsistant (even with support) and him needing to connect complicates things even more. However, when he works, he is fantastic surely. So I get why your version runs well. If you exclude Flayer though (or when Flayer doesn't connect), I think it gets tough on a consistant basis.
4 Grim Flayer
1 Vendilion Clique
4 Assassin's Trophy
3 Liliana of the Veil
2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
3 Fatal Push
2 Abrupt Decay
3 Thoughtseize
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Maelstrom Pulse
3 Darkslick Shores
4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Polluted Delta
1 Breeding Pool
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Watery Grave
3 Creeping Tar Pit
2 Swamp
1 Island
1 Forest
2 Snapcaster Mage
4 Dark Confidant
1 Treetop Village
1 Rain of Tears
3 Nihil Spellbomb
1 Vendilion Clique
1 Surgical Extraction
2 Damnation
2 Negate
1 Dispel
1 Liliana, the Last Hope
1 Tireless Tracker
1 Unmoored Ego
1 Flayed Tendrils
I have been messing around all week with Sultai lists. Just playing anything I see online or in this forum. I did not like the Todd Stevens list posted on SCG. Goyf in control lists feels weird to me without Splinter Twin. The above list is with Assassin's Trophy added to superna7ural with a different sideboard. The other change I made was to swap darkslick shore for blooming marsh and one less tarpit for a tree top. Completely agree 22 lands seems low for a midrange list, but after playing games today I never ran into that issue for some reason. The Sultai manabase has always been tricky and there is def tension between Lili and Jace/Clique in the mana. I think mid-range is the place to be, especially if Trophy encourages more goyf decks in the format.
I think the number 22 just sounds bad, but the reality is my list plays 28 cards in the main that cost 2 or less mana, only 7 cards that cost 3 mana, and only 3 cards that cost 4 mana. You also have to consider the heavy filtering mechanics you have access to. The curve is exceptionally low and you only ever really need to hit 4 mana in a game. 5 or 6 is optimal and then you want to just stop seeing lands.
I may caution against replacing all 3 Blooming Marsh for Darkslick Shores, but let me know how it pans out for you.
STANDARD|UW Control MODERN| UBG Midrange PAUPER| UG Fog COMMANDER| UBG The Mimeoplasm
Your list reminds me of something I saw Todd Stevens talking about when Jace was first unbanned. He predicted JTMS would be best in a midrange shell where it's reasonable to protect him with creatures and abuse his +0 and +2 abilities, rather than relying on his -1 (obviously still using it when necessary).
No scavenging ooze at all? What are your thoughts on the card? From my small amount of experience practicing with Sultai Mid lately, it looks like you'd get ran over by Bridgevine. Did you play against the deck at all?
Nissa, Steward of Elements - How often were you able to +0 her for value? or was she mostly just a scry 2 engine (totally awesome even at that)
Do you feel a single Sunken Ruins would've helped reach UU & BB more consistently?
7x spot removal, 4x Decay and 3x Push - How do you feel about these numbers? Was Decay relevant often in enough in your matches (i.e. non-creature target) or could you have maybe switched these numbers. I'm just thinking about mana efficiency in the first few turns against something like Humans, Spirits, or Affinity.
You seem very confident in your deck list so please don't just debate my points out of defensive habit. Dark Confidant has to be the card I'm most surprised about. Hoogland and Stevens (among other respected players) have offered thoughts that Bob isn't as good in Sultai as BG Rock or Jund, for a number of other reasons but also because we have great card advantage engines in Snapcaster and Tracker. I know you mentioned you dislike Tracker, and I haven't played with the card enough to offer an opinion, but Hoogland speaks really highly of her. So much so that I'm buying into a playset and trying it out. She does beg for a higher land count though, and that's valuable deck space right there...
To offer a concession, I'm really glad to see someone performing well with the deck at all, number 1. And then number 2 - way to go Creeping Tar Pit! IMO it's the best manland and I'm happy to see a list with 4x placing well. Also tipping my hat to running all 8x discard spells. This is another fringe tech I've been pushing my in BGx decks since before Jund Shadow started doing it. Especially alongside LOTV, who allows you to pitch unwanted discards later, and JTMS who allows you to just reshuffle them back in.
Draft My Cube!
Just to reiterate and, your mana curve vs a typical Jund manacurve:
Sultai:
11 one drops
15 two drops
9 three drops
3 four drops
And I did count snapcaster as 3 drops, since its actually not a intended 2 drop obviously.
Jund:
11 one drops
13 two drops
8 three drops
4 four drops
So overall the curve isn't really exceptionally low you describe. 7-9 three drops and 3 four drops are a lot, not few. I think it is important to point that out. To add, with 22 lands, you cannot hit 4 lands in a consistant manner alone. Let alone going to 5 or 6 lands. The landdrops you describe is something what a 24-25 landbase offers, not a 22 landbase (naturally without filtering). You are only consistantly hitting 3 lands without filtering. And all that without taking into account the 4 manlands. So, like already said, this curve is generally on the greed side, but you rely on your flayers to filter your draw to cope with that. The way I am seeing that, If Flayers don't work in a particular matchup, its gonna get tough.
And for further reference, here is my personal curve for a 24 landbase Jund deck:
13 one drops
14 two drops
6 three drops
3 four drops
This curve is even lower than yours.
I will post my SB plans in the morning for everyone.
I have ran 1-2 Scavenging Ooze fairly regularly. In all honesty, I prefer the card in Jund more than Sultai as you get more value beyond it just being a GY hate card. Your Bolts allow you to reach with Ooze, Sultai does not have much reach for Ooze to really put in work with as little effort as Jund does. AS for the lifegain, a common issue I have had is that no amount of lifegain short of running multiple Thragtusk or Courser are going to give you enough for the burn match. I instead opted for 3 Spell Snare out of the board for this match (and others) because it hits almost everything and if you keep trading 1 for 1 with them, they eventually have to aim burn at creatures if they want to live. So Scavenging Ooze wasn't something I considered all that valuable in a match like Burn. Like I said, I go back and forth on having them in the deck and I think my overall conclusion is that they are good, but there are likely better cards overall. As for Bridgevine, the deck can be a battle sometimes. You really need to keep aggressive hands in this match and prioritize creatures and removal over walkers, but the match has not been unwinnable for me. I put it around the 50%-60% in my favor depending. Draws for this match are incredibly situational based on how both players open the game.
Nissa does sometimes 0 for value off Dark Confidant, but mainly she is just a +2 to set up your draws and then ult for damage. I am pleased with her, but may be willing to cut her in favor of some GRN slots. I remember someone placing well in SCG Open (13th or so) that spoke highly of her so I tried her out and she works well for what you put into her. Definately not a 1 of that I have regret at any point.
There is actually 9 spot removal spells if you count Pulse. I am happy with that number. I settled on 4x Abrupt Decay vs 4x Fatal Push as a concession to likely running into more Tron decks and Spirits decks than Humans or Affinity. I think a 4x split vs a 3x split really depends on what matches you want to hedge for. My removal count switches up to 3 Push, 2 Decay, 3 Trophy and 1 Pulse after GRN and that still slots me in at 9.
Dark Confidant is probably the best draw for Sultai in my opinion. I tried Visions, I tried Bauble, I tried Opt. The problem was that super aggressive decks can go under those well. Dark Confidant can at least serve as a blocker and draw cards depending on what the game state is like. I think he is absolutely underrated. He is the bees knees vs anything that isn't Aggro. You can set him up well with Nissa and Grim Flayers to boot. The problem I had with Tracker was that too often I was in situations where I wanted to spend mana to remain proactive and Clues were essentially useless until I was behind and needed them, if I had any to begin with. Sultai, in my experience, really needs to focus on T1 discard T2 threat T3 repeat and Tracker does not follow that plan well in Sultai. He is at odds with a lot of what the GB slots want to be doing and more inline with what the UG slots want to be doing - and we don't run any real UG slots. I have the same issues with counterspells in the main, they are at odds with the GB slots while wanting to work a UB angle, and we don't run a UB angle. I have seen some of Hooglands Sultai streams, and to be honest his play with these decks is abysmal, I take almost nothing he says to heart when it comes to Sultai. I agree with Davis that Tracker is one of the best cards in Modern, but I think the rest of Modern is an entirely different beast with different appetites where Tracker fits better. I don't think that is a reason to run it in a deck that isn't really hungry for that kind of card. I share the same sentiments with Serum Visions, great card, but for different decks.
Tar Pit is incredibly powerful and arguably the best manland in modern, the problem is that it doesn't have a home which makes it appear weaker on the surface. I also think Tar Pit is why the deck, which plays like Jund, can work with 22 land where Jund cannot. Jund has Ravine which cost more mana (which is incredibly relevant when you want to leave mana open and attack.
As for 8 Discard spells, I think 8 is an important number. I have ran less but you really want consistent turn 1 and 2 plays and a turn 1 discard spell makes your turn 2 creates so much more relevant than most other turn 2 creatures in Modern.
STANDARD|UW Control MODERN| UBG Midrange PAUPER| UG Fog COMMANDER| UBG The Mimeoplasm
On a different note, I tried a different version of Sulati which excludes the delve threats for now:
4 Verdant Catacombs
3 Polluted Delta
2 Misty Rainforest
3 Darkslick Shores
1 Blooming Marsh
2 Overgrown Tomb
1 Watery Grave
1 Breeding Pool
2 Swamp
1 Island
1 Forest
2 Creeping Tar Pit
4 Tarmogoyf
3 Snapcaster Mage
3 Dark Confidant
2 Tireless Tracker
Noncreature Spells [25]
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Thoughtseize
4 Fatal Push
4 Opt
2 Collective Brutality
4 Assassin's Trophy
2 Liliana, the Last Hope
1 Maelstrom Pulse
2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
I am at this point not really sure what to run in the SB, but this version also works really well. It has without cantrips 17 blue sources, 20 black sources and 14 green sources. All this numbers go up by 1 when you include the 4 Opt. If you wanna know the numbers for having turn 1 blue or black then you need to exclude cantrips and also tar pits, which still leaves 15 blue sources for a turn 1 opt (you need 14 for that minimum) and 18 sources for a turn 1 discard/push spell which is also plenty. With 23 lands and 4 cantrips you should find your 4th landdrop relatively often which is about 71.3 % according to the hypergeometric calculations. 4 lands is rather important to hit in order to have Snapcaster + Trophy or Tar Pit activation or 2 two drops at the ready. Given the fact that it will only happen 71.3 % of the time (by natural draws) this is actually on the low end of things. However, the deck should be able to operate on 3 lands well enough, as you technically can't cast multiple higher CMC spells, cast Jace as well as activate Tar Pit in this stage.
Also I figured Blood Moon hoses this deck tremendously, for which reason I am pretty high on 9 fetchlands, which also goes well with Tracker. I expect Tracker to be great in the upcoming meta, since you also have to expect Trophy being used against us, which would make Tracker either a first kill or a better grindy creature, since you also get clues off of opposing trophies.
STANDARD|UW Control MODERN| UBG Midrange PAUPER| UG Fog COMMANDER| UBG The Mimeoplasm
I don't think so, I explained it in great detail over the course of several posts. For me it seems you are treating the deck to being more a faster approach with the typical sequence of turn 1 discard, turn 2 threat, etc. However, your justifications to run 22 lands only with your particular manacurve have been either that is allegedly very low (which it isn't, as I stated as a counterargument) as well as that Tar Pit costs one less mana to activate, to which I also gave counterarguments for. According to your statements, you expect that you also hit your 4th landdrop fairly consistantly, to which I can only give you the numbers: Its about 53 % by natural draws. Also for reference, Frank Karstens statement on a 22 landbuild without cantrips: "You need 2 lands on turn 2 every game (99.2%) but would like 3 lands on turn 3 (84.7%) for several 3-drops" Your experience shows that it works, which is fine, but I am trying to tell you that you are quite heavily relying on your filtering to perform well. This is of course also fine, so no critique on that part, my only issue is that the explanations you give for a 22 land build to be viable here is a bit off. If you disagree then I am happy to hear your exact argumentation on why.
I would say you want at least 3-4 main deck regardless of your configuration. Playing your deck without Delve threats also opens up the door for Logic Knot which I find to be one of the best counterspells in modern. (Obviously you could still support 2-3 LK alongside 1-2 Tasigur)
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Personally I'm not sold on the 22 lands in a mid-range deck with no cantrips. I would at least run 23 but I like to err on the side of caution for mid/Ctrl decks (and subsequently err on the side of aggression when piloting fast decks).
If I was to run any counterspells in the main deck it would be only Spell Snare or Stubborn denial. The low cost to wide hit-box ratio is the only thing that seems good enough (for main deck). Stuff like Remand doesn't belong in a mid-range deck unless you're trying to combo off like Twin
Draft My Cube!
I think Stubborn Denial is not good enough for a midrange deck. It is close to useless on its own, it is more of a tempo-style of card, which requires synergy.
1x Blooming Marsh
1x Breeding Pool
3x Creeping Tar Pit
3x Darkslick Shores
1x Forest
1x Island
2x Overgrown Tomb
4x Polluted Delta
2x Swamp
4x Verdant Catacombs
2x Watery Grave
2x Scavenging Ooze
2x Snapcaster Mage
4x Tarmogoyf
2x Tasigur, the Golden Fang
Sorcery (6)
4x Inquisition of Kozilek
2x Thoughtseize
Instant (12)
4x Assassin's Trophy
4x Fatal Push
4x Thought Scour
3x Jace, the Mind Sculptor
4x Liliana of the Veil
1x Liliana, the Last Hope
Have been testing this list a little bit with proxied assassin's trophies. It seems pretty smooth and reasonable- definitely a very grindy and satisfying playstlye winning with liliana and jace side by side- jace is probably the biggest reason to justify the blue splash instead of playing straight G/B rock or jund. I enjoy having so many lines of play with the planeswalker combo when you get them working in tandem- it gives the deck a lot of flexibility and allows you to attack your opponent's hand, board, and topdecks from multiple angles. Counterspells don't work particularly well with the good disruptive black cards in modern (better in legacy because counterspells are free), so I left them out. Lots of 4-ofs and 2-ofs because I want to keep things simple.
I feel like this deck has the potential to create a lot of nongames of magic- you curve out with 1 drop discard/removal, 2 drop threat or removal spell, 3 drop liliana kill their only remaining creature or start forcing them to discard their hand, 4 drop jace and start fatesealing them and you've basically just slammed the door shut on them having any chance of getting back in the game.
One slot I'm definitely unsure of is thought scour- I'm wondering if it's just better to play it for the potential of a turn 2 tasigur or if it's worth it to play a cantrip that gives better card selection like serum visions- I can't really justify opt because we don't gain much from playing on the opponent's turn- this is not a reactive control deck, after all, so the sorcery speed is not so much an issue as it is in draw-go control style decks.
Another thing to consider is whether or not cantrips are even worth it in the first place in a deck like this. It's hard for me to cut them because they do feel like the glue that helps you curve out and hit your land drops your powerful planeswalkers while helping enable cheap tasigurs.
If you drop Thought Scour then you're open to Blooming Marsh which is much better for Scavenging Ooze.
How has Jace been for you?
Draft My Cube!
I get that you are drinking that Karsten kool-aid, and while I don't fault you for it - there is evidence to suggest that I am not the only one experiencing little issue with the low land count of 22. Another user just posted that they didn't run into any issues while playtesting with 22 lands.
There was a list that did well with 21 lands a while back and even the pilot stated they intended to stick with 21 land. In fact there have also been multiple 5-0 MTGO lists running 22 land earlier this year, arguably one of the notable constants from lists that have actually done well within the archetype since the JTMS unbanning. It has also been cited that even with SV, the card is primarily used for filtering late game instead of draw fixing early game. Strange that that would be the conclusion with a 21-23 land count list that is seeing success, right?
Do the numbers seem suspect according to Karsten? Sure. Do they seem suspect according to posted results? Not really. I think you are operating on a few cognitive biases here.
STANDARD|UW Control MODERN| UBG Midrange PAUPER| UG Fog COMMANDER| UBG The Mimeoplasm
For now I actually think that thought scour might be correct- not only will it help fuel the potential turn 2 tasigur, but it also keeps up the card type count for goyf- something that can drastically go down when delving for tasigur- thought scour definitely reduces some of this tension. You can also do nifty stuff like thought scour yourself post brainstorm if you are brainstorm locked.