Not sure if Sleight of Hand is everyone's first choice for this deck, but the other tech in here is super cool, and makes me want to try Sramstorm out again!
Not sure if Sleight of Hand is everyone's first choice for this deck, but the other tech in here is super cool, and makes me want to try Sramstorm out again!
Sleight is almost definitely wrong over SV. But more draw engines works well in this current metagame where redundancy is important. I also think 0 Noxious Revival is wrong as the card is so versatile. Overall though, it's great to see the deck having some recent success. I still believe this is the fastest, most consistently fast deck in Modern, even if it's also a bit fragile in some metagames.
A four-drop in a 15-land max deck seems ambitious (I never understood how Paradoxical Outcome could be played in this archetype). It doesn't bring much more than the 2 & 3-cmc finishers available (Valduk, Keeper of the Flame is another new and bad one).
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Pioneer - A bunch of stuff Modern - Humans Legacy - Grixis Phoenix / Death & Taxes
I mean, there is no doubt that the goldfish on a t1 assistant, t2 win gets better. You are normally looking for/avoiding specific cards. Scrying away lands/extra dudes before each draw should have a pretty big impact on the probability of drawing your cheeri0s and eventually retract/etc.
Now, will it actually be better than whatever it is replacing due to removal is a different question. I do know there was at least one person on here playing contraband kingpin due to the scry.
Edit: I mean, assuming (worst case) you are playing 20 cheeri0s, have 1 and a dude in hand, then you are 19/52 (36.5%) to continue chaining on the first draw that turn, compared to 60.2%; an addition of (33/52)(19/51) 23.6%.
Assuming you have a retract or opal in your opener (or more cheeri0s so you can draw into either of them and still continue chaining), that probability should only get better.
That being said, this is looking at the conditional probability of having a t2 worthy opener, so the effect on overall probability of a t2 kill may not be significant
That being said, an opener with assistant and multiple cheeri0s can scry you into a dude or land to cast the one you have in hand.
The card seems very good for the deck. The question is what to cut.
Visions is not ideal for the goldfish, but interaction might be necessary for MD problem cards. The latest iteration a few posts back ran a disgustingly low number of lands, so maybe shaving there, but I'm pretty scared to go down to 14 lands in my build.
Thoughtcast seems particularly good if you have an assistant out. You can scry with the cheeri0s and then draw into what you need for 1 mana. It's kind of a build your own Visions that has more synergy with the combo.
I have always liked Echoing Truth since the early Sram days when I seriously began playing the deck since it can bounce problem cards, but also bounce some of your own cheeri0s in a pinch.
Revival is obviously a must for anyone who's played the deck.
Now, will it actually be better than whatever it is replacing due to removal is a different question. I do know there was at least one person on here playing contraband kingpin due to the scry.
Kingpin was great, and still useful in the burn/aggro matches, but this is far better overall. It even rides the bone saw / cranial plating for some plan B wins.
I am testing the list that you showed with the following adjustments:
-2 Thoughtcast, +2 Serum Visions (They help dig for that missing land T1).
-1 Cheeri0, +1 Noxious Revival (I have found that the drop from 20 to 19 isn't bad, and the extra noxious is always relevant).
Should have some numbers by this weekend on a 300 run crunch.
Having a T1 birds makes comboing easier, since by T2 it will be able to tap, so you don't really need a Mox Opal as soon as you would if you draw into a Paradise Mantle. For me this is key since I only play 3 Opals and I've been playing 4x Glint Hawk and they've been good for this and a variety of other reasons.
This will also make the switch to 4x Assistant really easy for me.
Having a T1 birds makes comboing easier, since by T2 it will be able to tap, so you don't really need a Mox Opal as soon as you would if you draw into a Paradise Mantle. For me this is key since I only play 3 Opals and I've been playing 4x Glint Hawk and they've been good for this and a variety of other reasons.
This will also make the switch to 4x Assistant really easy for me.
I was about to bring this up as well, the extra mana on T2 from the Paradise Mantle on the AA is doing wonderful things in my simulations.
Okay, I know hypergeometric distribution is good for odds of single cards, but what about multiples? What I want to find out is the number of pseudo lands we get with artificers assistant and paradise mantle at 4x each is. Anyone know this maths?
Not sure if Sleight of Hand is everyone's first choice for this deck, but the other tech in here is super cool, and makes me want to try Sramstorm out again!
Sleight is almost definitely wrong over SV. But more draw engines works well in this current metagame where redundancy is important. I also think 0 Noxious Revival is wrong as the card is so versatile. Overall though, it's great to see the deck having some recent success. I still believe this is the fastest, most consistently fast deck in Modern, even if it's also a bit fragile in some metagames.
Came here to post this
Modern: Bogles // 8-Whack/Goblins // UW Titan // Hollow One // Affinity // Dredge
EDH: Nissa, Vastwood Seer // Atraxa, Praetor's Voice // Meren of Clan Nel Toth
Holy moly, the T2 wins just exploded in frequency.
Would love to hear more about your number crunching.
Modern: Bogles // 8-Whack/Goblins // UW Titan // Hollow One // Affinity // Dredge
EDH: Nissa, Vastwood Seer // Atraxa, Praetor's Voice // Meren of Clan Nel Toth
Now, will it actually be better than whatever it is replacing due to removal is a different question. I do know there was at least one person on here playing contraband kingpin due to the scry.
Edit: I mean, assuming (worst case) you are playing 20 cheeri0s, have 1 and a dude in hand, then you are 19/52 (36.5%) to continue chaining on the first draw that turn, compared to 60.2%; an addition of (33/52)(19/51) 23.6%.
Assuming you have a retract or opal in your opener (or more cheeri0s so you can draw into either of them and still continue chaining), that probability should only get better.
That being said, this is looking at the conditional probability of having a t2 worthy opener, so the effect on overall probability of a t2 kill may not be significant
That being said, an opener with assistant and multiple cheeri0s can scry you into a dude or land to cast the one you have in hand.
The card seems very good for the deck. The question is what to cut.
Visions is not ideal for the goldfish, but interaction might be necessary for MD problem cards. The latest iteration a few posts back ran a disgustingly low number of lands, so maybe shaving there, but I'm pretty scared to go down to 14 lands in my build.
Edit 2: It even scrys when you play Sram Poggers
I'm gonna run the following list:
2 thoughtcast
1 echoing truth
1 noxious revival
20 cheeri0s
4 opal
4 retract
1 grapeshot
I have always liked Echoing Truth since the early Sram days when I seriously began playing the deck since it can bounce problem cards, but also bounce some of your own cheeri0s in a pinch.
Revival is obviously a must for anyone who's played the deck.
Kingpin was great, and still useful in the burn/aggro matches, but this is far better overall. It even rides the bone saw / cranial plating for some plan B wins.
-2 Thoughtcast, +2 Serum Visions (They help dig for that missing land T1).
-1 Cheeri0, +1 Noxious Revival (I have found that the drop from 20 to 19 isn't bad, and the extra noxious is always relevant).
Should have some numbers by this weekend on a 300 run crunch.
This will also make the switch to 4x Assistant really easy for me.
I was about to bring this up as well, the extra mana on T2 from the Paradise Mantle on the AA is doing wonderful things in my simulations.
Modern: Bogles // 8-Whack/Goblins // UW Titan // Hollow One // Affinity // Dredge
EDH: Nissa, Vastwood Seer // Atraxa, Praetor's Voice // Meren of Clan Nel Toth
Looks like he made 9-2.
https://magic.wizards.com/en/events/coverage/gphar18/round-11-standings-2018-04-15
Keep the affinity match-ups coming!