With no active graveyard TVoice is preferable as it discards a card into the graveyard even if it is countered. Also, TVoice rummages by drawing after you've discarded which provides a better opportunity for dredging as you can ditch whatever you've got in hand to enable them.
With dredge cards already in the graveyard, Goblin Lore has the potential for huge dredges. If you T1 Insolent Neonate with a Stinkweed Imp then you're looking at a 73% chance of having a dredge card already in your graveyard to chain off into. So 3/4 of the time this'll be the bees knees. However 1/4 of the time (in our hypothetical where we also had the T1 enabler, which isn't fully guaranteed but common enough) we'll just be drawing 4 and then hoping to discard our payoff cards.
Post board, lets say we're got 3 Abrupt Decays boarded in and our opening hand is a strong 7 but no hate. We play a T1 land and enabler and then want to play Goblin Lore/Tormenting Voice on T2. What are the odds of finding/discarding the essential Decays? Tormenting Voice allows us 3 draws (including draw step) for a 16.33% chance of hitting.
Goblin Lore sees 5 cards in total, a 26.16% of hitting. However, we also discard three cards. So at T2 we play a land and Goblin Lore (6-2+4=8 cards in hand) and have found our Abrupt Decay, we now have a 62.5% chance of keeping it. So our overall expected value of Goblin Lore is 0.625*0.2616 = 16.35%. 0.02% better than Tormenting Voice. Parity, especially when you consider that I've rounded numbers slightly too.
So again, we're at the question of consistency versus explosiveness. The one bit that I think is really underrated with Tormenting Voice is that it still quasi-hits when countered. You'll get the dredge card in the graveyard no matter what. Granted, blue counterspell decks aren't common at the moment... Grixis Delver / Jeskai / corner cases?
I've run Goblin Lore instead of Voice, and it's really good when you have dredgers in the yard. However, that'ts the only time it was good. Other times, I found myself discarding things I wanted to hold onto, like darkblasts or axes.
I've run Goblin Lore instead of Voice, and it's really good when you have dredgers in the yard. However, that'ts the only time it was good. Other times, I found myself discarding things I wanted to hold onto, like darkblasts or axes.
Goblin Lore, Desperate Ravings, Burning Inquiry, et. al. have cost me plenty of G2/G3 matches by pitching a card that I ended up needing in the following turn or two. The same can be said when you dredge away your hate card though. I've ran Mystic Retrieval as a fun two-of and got mileage out of it in longer matches but I was essentially trading spots for the late game chance that 1) I have the card I need in the graveyard 2) I've managed to get to 4 or 5 mana (flashback cost + spell cost) 3) my opponent fell asleep and forgot to leave his islands untapped. Aggressive mulligans to find one or two specific cards feels bad all around.
Not going to check the actual math but one thing you also have to consider is the smaller hand size if we mulligan even once. If we're forced to mulligan to say, 5 cards, your odds of keeping your Abrupt Decay get significantly worse and we're seeing fewer cards in the deck, so the odds of drawing it are also slightly worse.
Not going to check the actual math but one thing you also have to consider is the smaller hand size if we mulligan even once. If we're forced to mulligan to say, 5 cards, your odds of keeping your Abrupt Decay get significantly worse and we're seeing fewer cards in the deck, so the odds of drawing it are also slightly worse.
Fair, to both the summary and your point
I also realised there was another scenario that I didn't churn the numbers on. If you have an opening hand with Abrupt Decay and Goblin Lore / Tormenting Voice. Lets say you're on the play, Land + Flooting, go. They take their turn one and you're expecting Rest in Peace next turn. Your T2, what do you do? You're now risking discarding your Decay just to keep dredging. That's a pretty awful scenario to find yourself in.
The best case scenario is hope you have the third land to wait until T3 to Floot. So Goblin Lore has cost you an entire turn of development.
4x Grave Troll
4x Ole Stinky
4x Blood Ghast
4x Narcomoeba
4x Prized Amalgam
4x Faithless Looting
3x Tormenting Voice
3x Life from the Loam
3x Conflagrate
1x Collective Brutality
4x Insolent Neonate
1x Haunted Dead
2x Shriekhorn
Personally a HUGE fan of a collective brutality in the main. Against Bant Eldrazi I got mega value turn 2 by killing a hierarch, taking a stirrings and discarding 2 dredgers.
My list it's pretty much exactly what was ran at Worlds. It feels extremely consistent and game 1 is almost always a 1 sided match (if you can dodge the matchups with main board anger )
Thanks for posting the list. I like it and the fact that it has so much consistent with all enablers. What I don't like is only playing 19 land. This deck always needs at least 2 lands (one of which produces green) in order to get rolling with loams. Currently I'm playing 20 and sometimes already have issues. I also run 2 dakmor salvage to be able to dredge into lands if need be (considering going up one more). So I would look at finding room for one more land.
Other then that I like the list. Kind of goes back to the roots of the list that won the New Zealand WMCQ and had an article series published on Mtg mintcard.
Yeah, I have been considering another Dakmor Salvage or Blood crypt. I really like collective brutality and Thoughtseize in the side so I'm leaning on the Blood crypt
Looking at the decks at this moment, i noticed that they're removing Engineered Explosives from the board and replacing it with Collective brutality. Is collective a better choice at this moment?
Btw, Do you board-in nature's claim in game 2 or game 3? Still not a fan of nature's claim since i don't want to blindly put it in game 2. But nature's claim is a must have at this moment and still having a problem boarding it in
I think I will have to give a break to Dredge. My local store environment became very bad for dredge. Last saturday lost 1st game of a GP trial for a mono white death and taxes that had RiP in main deck (and before anyone say that is stupid that guy won the even of 31 people, after frustrating meliras and junds left and right.. granted he was lucky to not face any affinity). Next game I won agaisnt tron, then on next 3 matches I won the first game to be pulverized by grave hate in second and third games.
Probably right now is the apex of grave hate that we will see around and I doubt much will change until the new block arrives. I hope after that some new deck arrives and pull out SOME of the grave hate we see right now.
I think I will have to give a break to Dredge. My local store environment became very bad for dredge. Last saturday lost 1st game of a GP trial for a mono white death and taxes that had RiP in main deck (and before anyone say that is stupid that guy won the even of 31 people, after frustrating meliras and junds left and right.. granted he was lucky to not face any affinity). Next game I won agaisnt tron, then on next 3 matches I won the first game to be pulverized by grave hate in second and third games.
Probably right now is the apex of grave hate that we will see around and I doubt much will change until the new block arrives. I hope after that some new deck arrives and pull out SOME of the grave hate we see right now.
lol there is this guy at my local shop that plays some red white deck who mains, 2 RiP, 2 Stony Silence, and like 3 blood moons. I have yet to face him but I feel like that'll be a nightmare. His Deck is a little slow to beat you down, since his only threats are hero of the bladehold and brimaz but if he locks you down, its game over. he does this because he knows the entire stores meta. There's like three affinity players, two grave yard decks, The other being living end, and a few decks who run greedy mana bases. Like kiki chord, 5 color good stuff, abzan coco, and a few others.
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Currently playing:
Modern: Affinity, Mono-White Hatebears.
Legacy: Death and Taxes, Mono Red Sneak Attack, Dragon Stompy.
My view is that there's always going to be some type of yard hate in the sideboards, We should almost always take Game 1 as long as we dodge angers or Ugin. But in order for them to win game 2 they have to draw their hate, most usually causing them to keep an otherwise lackluster hand, that's why I almost always premptively bring in the nature's claims and abrupt decays even after I win game 1. If we can get an opening Nature's claim and get rid of their cage, relic or RIP they are on their heels because they were relying on that. For all I care, bring on the hate. It makes it more exhilarating just waiting for that turn 1 cage or relic.. just my thoughts
I got 2-2 with my list last fmn. Pretty sure it could have been 3-1... but I kept questionable hands. I feel like the deck still isnt quite stable enough... but I cant figure out how to make it more stable.
Welp... I realistically went 2-3 tonight even though I went 3-2. My jund opponent didnt see my conflagrate with his open green and scavenging ooze and I cast it for lethal on turn 5 of turns. I whooped scapeshift and grixis control. I lost to elves waaaaay hard and I lost round 1 to this weird angel's grace, phyrexian unlife, negative life death's shadow fling and rite of consumption deck. It felt bad. I just think dredge is one bit too inconsistent to be a reliable thing. I didnt even face any grave hate AT ALL tonight and I still just couldnt get my deck to come together. I dredge hard core and I get all lands and other dredgers. All my payoff cards are no where. I think I'm gonna play jeskai nahiri for a while.
Some yard hate sure... but last saturday at my store people had 6+ pieces of grave hate intheir sid, with 2decks fielding some relics at main and that DnT guy with RiP in main. That is too much for me... will give a 2 week break I think.. wil bring a Lol Doran deck instead When Next block arrives I hope meta shakes a bit andpeople are forced to bring more hate against afinity.
Looking at the decks at this moment, i noticed that they're removing Engineered Explosives from the board and replacing it with Collective brutality. Is collective a better choice at this moment?
It doubles as a discard outlet and anti combo and anti creature. So it is a good sideboard since you can remove 1 tormenting voice and put Brutality on its place. The enabler balance stays unaffected.
I got 2-2 with my list last fmn. Pretty sure it could have been 3-1... but I kept questionable hands. I feel like the deck still isnt quite stable enough... but I cant figure out how to make it more stable.
I agree. I think that one of the absolute hardest parts of this deck is deciding when to mull and when not to. My standard is 1 enabler and 1 dredger and 1-2 lands, 1 of which must make red mana, and ideally green as well. Ideally 2, but if i have already mulled I'll keep a 1 lander even without a faithless looting in hand. the 3 dakmor salvages make it much easier.
The downside of this deck is that because of all the variance, we have to mull frequently. The good part is that all we really need is 3 cards (1 land, 1 enabler, 1 dredger) to end up with 10+ power on the board by turn 3 (with some lucky dredges)
I really think another rummage is what this deck needs to go over the top. something as simple as paying R for discard, then draw would be perfect.
I got 2-2 with my list last fmn. Pretty sure it could have been 3-1... but I kept questionable hands. I feel like the deck still isnt quite stable enough... but I cant figure out how to make it more stable.
I agree. I think that one of the absolute hardest parts of this deck is deciding when to mull and when not to. My standard is 1 enabler and 1 dredger and 1-2 lands, 1 of which must make red mana, and ideally green as well. Ideally 2, but if i have already mulled I'll keep a 1 lander even without a faithless looting in hand. the 3 dakmor salvages make it much easier.
The downside of this deck is that because of all the variance, we have to mull frequently. The good part is that all we really need is 3 cards (1 land, 1 enabler, 1 dredger) to end up with 10+ power on the board by turn 3 (with some lucky dredges)
I really think another rummage is what this deck needs to go over the top. something as simple as paying R for discard, then draw would be perfect.
This is what I keep coming back too. I also think my win rate will go much higher up when I study what decks use which hate, and make sure I see my anti hate game 2/3.
With no active graveyard TVoice is preferable as it discards a card into the graveyard even if it is countered. Also, TVoice rummages by drawing after you've discarded which provides a better opportunity for dredging as you can ditch whatever you've got in hand to enable them.
With dredge cards already in the graveyard, Goblin Lore has the potential for huge dredges. If you T1 Insolent Neonate with a Stinkweed Imp then you're looking at a 73% chance of having a dredge card already in your graveyard to chain off into. So 3/4 of the time this'll be the bees knees. However 1/4 of the time (in our hypothetical where we also had the T1 enabler, which isn't fully guaranteed but common enough) we'll just be drawing 4 and then hoping to discard our payoff cards.
Post board, lets say we're got 3 Abrupt Decays boarded in and our opening hand is a strong 7 but no hate. We play a T1 land and enabler and then want to play Goblin Lore/Tormenting Voice on T2. What are the odds of finding/discarding the essential Decays? Tormenting Voice allows us 3 draws (including draw step) for a 16.33% chance of hitting.
Goblin Lore sees 5 cards in total, a 26.16% of hitting. However, we also discard three cards. So at T2 we play a land and Goblin Lore (6-2+4=8 cards in hand) and have found our Abrupt Decay, we now have a 62.5% chance of keeping it. So our overall expected value of Goblin Lore is 0.625*0.2616 = 16.35%. 0.02% better than Tormenting Voice. Parity, especially when you consider that I've rounded numbers slightly too.
So again, we're at the question of consistency versus explosiveness. The one bit that I think is really underrated with Tormenting Voice is that it still quasi-hits when countered. You'll get the dredge card in the graveyard no matter what. Granted, blue counterspell decks aren't common at the moment... Grixis Delver / Jeskai / corner cases?
My Builds
W: Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit
WB: Karlov of the Ghost Council
WR: Anax & Cymede
WUG: Phelddagrif
Others' Builds that I've Enjoyed
WUB: Chromium
UR Storm
RBG Dredge
EDH:
UR Mizzix
GB Gitrog
WB Daxos
Goblin Lore, Desperate Ravings, Burning Inquiry, et. al. have cost me plenty of G2/G3 matches by pitching a card that I ended up needing in the following turn or two. The same can be said when you dredge away your hate card though. I've ran Mystic Retrieval as a fun two-of and got mileage out of it in longer matches but I was essentially trading spots for the late game chance that 1) I have the card I need in the graveyard 2) I've managed to get to 4 or 5 mana (flashback cost + spell cost) 3) my opponent fell asleep and forgot to leave his islands untapped. Aggressive mulligans to find one or two specific cards feels bad all around.
Not going to check the actual math but one thing you also have to consider is the smaller hand size if we mulligan even once. If we're forced to mulligan to say, 5 cards, your odds of keeping your Abrupt Decay get significantly worse and we're seeing fewer cards in the deck, so the odds of drawing it are also slightly worse.
Maybe? Idk just a thought.
Fair, to both the summary and your point
I also realised there was another scenario that I didn't churn the numbers on. If you have an opening hand with Abrupt Decay and Goblin Lore / Tormenting Voice. Lets say you're on the play, Land + Flooting, go. They take their turn one and you're expecting Rest in Peace next turn. Your T2, what do you do? You're now risking discarding your Decay just to keep dredging. That's a pretty awful scenario to find yourself in.
The best case scenario is hope you have the third land to wait until T3 to Floot. So Goblin Lore has cost you an entire turn of development.
My Builds
W: Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit
WB: Karlov of the Ghost Council
WR: Anax & Cymede
WUG: Phelddagrif
Others' Builds that I've Enjoyed
WUB: Chromium
3x Wooded Foothills
4x Bloodstained Mire
2x Stomping Ground
1x Blood Crypt
1x Steam Vents
1x Dakmor Salvage
1x Mana Confluence
1x Mountain
1x Forest
4x Copperline Gorge
4x Grave Troll
4x Ole Stinky
4x Blood Ghast
4x Narcomoeba
4x Prized Amalgam
4x Faithless Looting
3x Tormenting Voice
3x Life from the Loam
3x Conflagrate
1x Collective Brutality
4x Insolent Neonate
1x Haunted Dead
2x Shriekhorn
Personally a HUGE fan of a collective brutality in the main. Against Bant Eldrazi I got mega value turn 2 by killing a hierarch, taking a stirrings and discarding 2 dredgers.
My list it's pretty much exactly what was ran at Worlds. It feels extremely consistent and game 1 is almost always a 1 sided match (if you can dodge the matchups with main board anger )
Yeah, I have been considering another Dakmor Salvage or Blood crypt. I really like collective brutality and Thoughtseize in the side so I'm leaning on the Blood crypt
My Builds
W: Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit
WB: Karlov of the Ghost Council
WR: Anax & Cymede
WUG: Phelddagrif
Others' Builds that I've Enjoyed
WUB: Chromium
Probably right now is the apex of grave hate that we will see around and I doubt much will change until the new block arrives. I hope after that some new deck arrives and pull out SOME of the grave hate we see right now.
lol there is this guy at my local shop that plays some red white deck who mains, 2 RiP, 2 Stony Silence, and like 3 blood moons. I have yet to face him but I feel like that'll be a nightmare. His Deck is a little slow to beat you down, since his only threats are hero of the bladehold and brimaz but if he locks you down, its game over. he does this because he knows the entire stores meta. There's like three affinity players, two grave yard decks, The other being living end, and a few decks who run greedy mana bases. Like kiki chord, 5 color good stuff, abzan coco, and a few others.
Modern: Affinity, Mono-White Hatebears.
Legacy: Death and Taxes, Mono Red Sneak Attack, Dragon Stompy.
It doubles as a discard outlet and anti combo and anti creature. So it is a good sideboard since you can remove 1 tormenting voice and put Brutality on its place. The enabler balance stays unaffected.
I agree. I think that one of the absolute hardest parts of this deck is deciding when to mull and when not to. My standard is 1 enabler and 1 dredger and 1-2 lands, 1 of which must make red mana, and ideally green as well. Ideally 2, but if i have already mulled I'll keep a 1 lander even without a faithless looting in hand. the 3 dakmor salvages make it much easier.
The downside of this deck is that because of all the variance, we have to mull frequently. The good part is that all we really need is 3 cards (1 land, 1 enabler, 1 dredger) to end up with 10+ power on the board by turn 3 (with some lucky dredges)
I really think another rummage is what this deck needs to go over the top. something as simple as paying R for discard, then draw would be perfect.
BG Rock
Modern:
RW Sun & Moon
RBG Dredge
RWG Burn
Legacy:
W Death & Taxes
This is what I keep coming back too. I also think my win rate will go much higher up when I study what decks use which hate, and make sure I see my anti hate game 2/3.