I would highly recommend shatterstorm rather than shattering spree if Hardened Scale is a real force. also would suggest you map out the SB plan for all of the tiered decks and see how the leyline/leyline/moon/chalice work for you. my gut is you dont want both of them. In fact I would do Leyline of the Void out of all of these if anything but I've been experimenting with a hateless SB
does anyone know how to solve this problem mathematically? My probability skills is very shoddy beyond using stattrek. How does one calculate the Pr(at least 2 of 4 +SSG/1 of 4 +SSG and 1+ of 8 unapped land+1+ of 3 Goryo's Vengeance drawn in the next cards of a 32 card deck), for example?
for the scenario above, I know with 99% certainty that the last card is Spell queller, if anyone's curious and wants to take a shot at this problem. Also there's a Worldspine Wurm at the very bottom.
Calculating such a probability can be very tedious. I'm a statistician, and while I see how to compute it exactly, I never would for this sort of problem. It's much easier to approximate it via Monte Carlo simulation, assuming you can program in something like Python or R. Create a list of the cards left in the deck (ignoring the card you know is on the bottom). Select 14 (or however many you are interested in) of them randomly, then check to see if you hit the desired cards, then repeat with the original list. In, say, 10,000 repetitions, the proportion of times you hit will be close to the probability that you hit. The first decimal place should at least be right, anyway. If you want more precision, do more repetitions.
However, what you really need is to be able to compute these probabilities on the fly. You don't have time to program up a simulation in game. Without knowing the actual probabilities there, I would have went for it.
Calculating such a probability can be very tedious. I'm a statistician, and while I see how to compute it exactly, I never would for this sort of problem. It's much easier to approximate it via Monte Carlo simulation, assuming you can program in something like Python or R. Create a list of the cards left in the deck (ignoring the card you know is on the bottom). Select 14 (or however many you are interested in) of them randomly, then check to see if you hit the desired cards, then repeat with the original list. In, say, 10,000 repetitions, the proportion of times you hit will be close to the probability that you hit. The first decimal place should at least be right, anyway. If you want more precision, do more repetitions.
However, what you really need is to be able to compute these probabilities on the fly. You don't have time to program up a simulation in game. Without knowing the actual probabilities there, I would have went for it.
yea fair enough. I do stress learning the heuristics over learning a lot of math for playing this deck (although in my opinion some are crucual to playing the deck, such as what's the probability of hitting 1 of 4 shoals in 7 with x remaining or the odds of drawing shoal+wurm to keep going)
in practice i generally would lean towards a line that may have less singular outs than a line with more outs that requires multiple cards. I'd also lean towards lines that can kill immediately than a line that looks safer but is uncertain like this situation - as long as they are close.
i was curious how close this particular case was after the fact and see how close my heuristic method was
has anyone tried torpor orb? shuts down a lot of the key cards in hoomans and spirits. possibly good vs jeskai too because they play 4 snaps, 1-2 cliques, no RIP as opposed to UW which only plays 3 of those total with ~3 rips.
hoomans and spirits are on the rise and are some of the toughest MUs for us obviously.
1UB Rain of Notions - Surveil 2, draw 2, lose 2 life.
saw this making the rounds. Read the bones analog except surveil is obviously nuts in this deck. pieces of the puzzle is a close analog as well but there are many times where you just need a creature for your breach, especially if there's GY hate. seems interesting.
what about the Secrets of Mausoleum ?
1B
Instant
Undergrowth - Search your library for a black card with converted mana cost less than or equal to the number of creature cards in your graveyard, reveal it, and add it to your hand, then shuffle your library.
I think this card might be busted in the As Foretold / Living End / Goryo's deck. It gets Living End, no questions asked. And it's not a hard ask to make it find Goryo's Vengeance. Maybe they have to play Insolent Neonate to up the creature count, or build around a bit more. I'm less sure about it in Grisshoalbrand.
It costs U and that kinda kills me, since if I go into U, than I want to play Izzet Charm above it (or rather I want to play Izzet Charm).
@Secrets of Mausoleum:
I think this is the wrong deck tbh. Only in the Ooze version I would consider playing it, but even there you are playing generally a rather low creature count, so grabbing meaningful stuff will be rather iffy.
Greetings,
Kathal
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What I play or have:
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
I think if we were to play this it would be in addition to izzet charms. I remember Bob Huang sideboarding in some number of read the bones in his old lists which is what piqued my interest
So Discovery/Dispersal is certainly going to warrant testing for me. Between this, Notion Rain, and Doom Whisperer, I think we have a lot to digest here for a deck that hasn't gotten anything in a while (Brutality has been a good utility addition but not a card that fundamentally changed the deck.
What do you think about the goryo as foretold deck? You don't win with a Griselbrand into play but it seems to have more answares and has living end to wipe the board against humans and stuff like that.
Doom Whisperer looks bonkers in the Ooze version btw, since it is "basically" another Griselbrand effect while being quite easy to cast in that shell. Hence, I might shift over to the Ooze version, since it is more robust against graveyard hate, cause it actually plays "real" cards along the "cheat package".
The only question I have is, if I want to go BUx or BGx cause Grisley Slavage vs the U cantrips.
Greetings,
Kathal
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What I play or have:
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
good point, although with a lot of people leaning towards RIP/leyline due to the rise of decks like storm/hollow/bridgevine I'm not sure whether going slightly off axis is worth it. I'd be curious to see what you come up with though.. I'd certainly like to give it a try but I have no experience with building the deck
What do you think about the goryo as foretold deck? You don't win with a Griselbrand into play but it seems to have more answares and has living end to wipe the board against humans and stuff like that.
I had some problems drawing the wrong halves of the combo and consistency issues. It's still not great vs Humans because once they see As Foretold they're 100% going to name Living End. It's super fun though but It's liable to get run over by anything remotely linear and aggressive whereas Grishoalbrand at least has shoals that it can play to buffer life (I suppose Exarch does something similar). All said it's a fun deck and it is pretty high power level.
good point, although with a lot of people leaning towards RIP/leyline due to the rise of decks like storm/hollow/bridgevine I'm not sure whether going slightly off axis is worth it. I'd be curious to see what you come up with though.. I'd certainly like to give it a try but I have no experience with building the deck
BGx also lets you play Assassin's Trohpy..!
It purely depends, on how hard you want to lean on which combo. You can build the Ooze version as an "Bxx Midrange value deck but with several combos" (Thorling is unbeatable for no Terminus, Path or O-Ring decks) as a pure combo build, where you basically trade in the Breaches for Oozes, which allows you to run the new Tutor (cause you have more creatures in the bin more reliable and thus can tutor for Goryo's to set-up kills).
I honestly do not know, which approach is the best one, however, one which is good against both UW Control as Humans would be the perfect result, since you have solved the two most problematic match-ups if we are real.
You could also play Time of Need I suppose but I'm not sure how good that card is.
Time of Need is not needed in the Ooze build, to clunky and you have Grisley Salvage if you go into G, which is just better (cause it also finds Cavern).
good point, although with a lot of people leaning towards RIP/leyline due to the rise of decks like storm/hollow/bridgevine I'm not sure whether going slightly off axis is worth it. I'd be curious to see what you come up with though.. I'd certainly like to give it a try but I have no experience with building the deck
BGx also lets you play Assassin's Trohpy..!
It purely depends, on how hard you want to lean on which combo. You can build the Ooze version as an "Bxx Midrange value deck but with several combos" (Thorling is unbeatable for no Terminus, Path or O-Ring decks) as a pure combo build, where you basically trade in the Breaches for Oozes, which allows you to run the new Tutor (cause you have more creatures in the bin more reliable and thus can tutor for Goryo's to set-up kills).
I honestly do not know, which approach is the best one, however, one which is good against both UW Control as Humans would be the perfect result, since you have solved the two most problematic match-ups if we are real.
You could also play Time of Need I suppose but I'm not sure how good that card is.
Time of Need is not needed in the Ooze build, to clunky and you have Grisley Salvage if you go into G, which is just better (cause it also finds Cavern).
Discovery//Dispersal fells really great, I will test it on proxy paper today on ~15 games.
B00NTY
Which version and what did you cut? Would be nice to know when evaluating cards ^^
Greetings,
Kathal
I play the Grishoalbrand version, ~same as finalnub. I want to test by cutting Night's Whisper in a first time : same cost, no life loss, but value ? Want to figure it out. It may be very strong.
B00NTY
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Vizier company GWB- Dredge GBR - TitanShift GR - Grishoalbrand BR - Burn WR - Elves GB - Colorless Eldrazi X - U tron U
9 matchs today (Aggro/Combo/Control)
I finally cut 3 Whispers + 1 Hug for 4 Discovery//Dispersal. That card was incredible, the deck feels even more consistant between grave/hand.
Drawing whatever you want for your main plan. I dig 3 cards severals times ! I need more tests, but I have a really good feeling.
does anyone know how to solve this problem mathematically? My probability skills is very shoddy beyond using stattrek. How does one calculate the Pr(at least 2 of 4 +SSG/1 of 4 +SSG and 1+ of 8 unapped land+1+ of 3 Goryo's Vengeance drawn in the next cards of a 32 card deck), for example?
However, what you really need is to be able to compute these probabilities on the fly. You don't have time to program up a simulation in game. Without knowing the actual probabilities there, I would have went for it.
in practice i generally would lean towards a line that may have less singular outs than a line with more outs that requires multiple cards. I'd also lean towards lines that can kill immediately than a line that looks safer but is uncertain like this situation - as long as they are close.
i was curious how close this particular case was after the fact and see how close my heuristic method was
hoomans and spirits are on the rise and are some of the toughest MUs for us obviously.
saw this making the rounds. Read the bones analog except surveil is obviously nuts in this deck. pieces of the puzzle is a close analog as well but there are many times where you just need a creature for your breach, especially if there's GY hate. seems interesting.
I think this card might be busted in the As Foretold / Living End / Goryo's deck. It gets Living End, no questions asked. And it's not a hard ask to make it find Goryo's Vengeance. Maybe they have to play Insolent Neonate to up the creature count, or build around a bit more. I'm less sure about it in Grisshoalbrand.
It costs U and that kinda kills me, since if I go into U, than I want to play Izzet Charm above it (or rather I want to play Izzet Charm).
@Secrets of Mausoleum:
I think this is the wrong deck tbh. Only in the Ooze version I would consider playing it, but even there you are playing generally a rather low creature count, so grabbing meaningful stuff will be rather iffy.
Greetings,
Kathal
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
The only question I have is, if I want to go BUx or BGx cause Grisley Slavage vs the U cantrips.
Greetings,
Kathal
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
BGx also lets you play Assassin's Trohpy..!
Discovery//Dispersal fells really great, I will test it on proxy paper today on ~15 games.
B00NTY
It purely depends, on how hard you want to lean on which combo. You can build the Ooze version as an "Bxx Midrange value deck but with several combos" (Thorling is unbeatable for no Terminus, Path or O-Ring decks) as a pure combo build, where you basically trade in the Breaches for Oozes, which allows you to run the new Tutor (cause you have more creatures in the bin more reliable and thus can tutor for Goryo's to set-up kills).
I honestly do not know, which approach is the best one, however, one which is good against both UW Control as Humans would be the perfect result, since you have solved the two most problematic match-ups if we are real.
Time of Need is not needed in the Ooze build, to clunky and you have Grisley Salvage if you go into G, which is just better (cause it also finds Cavern).
Which version and what did you cut? Would be nice to know when evaluating cards ^^
Greetings,
Kathal
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
I play the Grishoalbrand version, ~same as finalnub. I want to test by cutting Night's Whisper in a first time : same cost, no life loss, but value ? Want to figure it out. It may be very strong.
B00NTY
9 matchs today (Aggro/Combo/Control)
I finally cut 3 Whispers + 1 Hug for 4 Discovery//Dispersal. That card was incredible, the deck feels even more consistant between grave/hand.
Drawing whatever you want for your main plan. I dig 3 cards severals times ! I need more tests, but I have a really good feeling.
B00NTY