I've had pretty good success vs. Eldrazi Tron but I think it's more to do with the fact that the deck was never as good as it was hyped up to be (for e.g., see the decline in metagame share and see Todd Stevens having dropped it recently). I'd say it's a 55/45 matchup. I've been on the fence about Blood Moon. I would certainly not bring it in on the draw, and on the play it's much closer. The presence of Mind Stones has waxed and waned and seeing those in game 1 will influence my decision, as well as the recent trends in these lists.
Generally speaking, their postboard deck gets significantly better. They bring in a lot of hateful cards ranging from relics to cages to surgicals. As such, I would lean towards bringing in Blood Moons on the play as it can (rarely) be a win condition and at worst will slow them down, which we may be forced to do with the hate (not to mention chalice on 2, which is annoying but can be played around with shoal splicing vengeance or breach).
As for what to sideboard in/out:
*take out all brutalities
*postboard games are going to be less about speed, so I'd take out all but one ritual
*it's not about speed (plus it's a 2 cmc card), so I'm fine cutting the manamorphose
*I would bring in Moons on the play, and perhaps Bontu's on the draw.
*I would bring in all Lightning Axes you have.
I've had pretty good success vs. Eldrazi Tron but I think it's more to do with the fact that the deck was never as good as it was hyped up to be (for e.g., see the decline in metagame share and see Todd Stevens having dropped it recently). I'd say it's a 55/45 matchup. I've been on the fence about Blood Moon. I would certainly not bring it in on the draw, and on the play it's much closer. The presence of Mind Stones has waxed and waned and seeing those in game 1 will influence my decision, as well as the recent trends in these lists.
Generally speaking, their postboard deck gets significantly better. They bring in a lot of hateful cards ranging from relics to cages to surgicals. As such, I would lean towards bringing in Blood Moons on the play as it can (rarely) be a win condition and at worst will slow them down, which we may be forced to do with the hate (not to mention chalice on 2, which is annoying but can be played around with shoal splicing vengeance or breach).
As for what to sideboard in/out:
*take out all brutalities
*postboard games are going to be less about speed, so I'd take out all but one ritual
*it's not about speed (plus it's a 2 cmc card), so I'm fine cutting the manamorphose
*I would bring in Moons on the play, and perhaps Bontu's on the draw.
*I would bring in all Lightning Axes you have.
Thanks for the advice..how about cutting on the any of the cantrips?
Hey guys what advice would you give someone who wants to put this deck together but doesn't own any Chalices. Are they essential to the deck or would something like additional hand disruption help out in those match-ups? even if that's not the best solution I'd love to know if its workable
I've had pretty good success vs. Eldrazi Tron but I think it's more to do with the fact that the deck was never as good as it was hyped up to be (for e.g., see the decline in metagame share and see Todd Stevens having dropped it recently). I'd say it's a 55/45 matchup. I've been on the fence about Blood Moon. I would certainly not bring it in on the draw, and on the play it's much closer. The presence of Mind Stones has waxed and waned and seeing those in game 1 will influence my decision, as well as the recent trends in these lists.
Generally speaking, their postboard deck gets significantly better. They bring in a lot of hateful cards ranging from relics to cages to surgicals. As such, I would lean towards bringing in Blood Moons on the play as it can (rarely) be a win condition and at worst will slow them down, which we may be forced to do with the hate (not to mention chalice on 2, which is annoying but can be played around with shoal splicing vengeance or breach).
As for what to sideboard in/out:
*take out all brutalities
*postboard games are going to be less about speed, so I'd take out all but one ritual
*it's not about speed (plus it's a 2 cmc card), so I'm fine cutting the manamorphose
*I would bring in Moons on the play, and perhaps Bontu's on the draw.
*I would bring in all Lightning Axes you have.
Thanks for the advice..how about cutting on the any of the cantrips?
Only time I would consider cutting Faithless Looting is against GBx decks that you'd expect some graveyard hate from (scooze, spellbomb, surgical etc.) where card disadvantage is bad.
I would cut Hugs vs. counterspells
I would only cut Night's Whispers if the life loss is actively bad (burn, some aggressive zoo style decks like Turbo Hollow One). You really don't want to dilute your deck too much unless your Plan A is so bad you have to transform into a bad BR control deck with a combo finish (infect, lantern, grixis shadows), at which point you can cut some number of canrips/combo pieces.
Hey guys what advice would you give someone who wants to put this deck together but doesn't own any Chalices. Are they essential to the deck or would something like additional hand disruption help out in those match-ups? even if that's not the best solution I'd love to know if its workable
given that you are faster than almost any decks in the format your opponent will be asking the questions, and not you. That's why I highly dislike discard unless it's a more multi-functional card like Brutality which is fantastic in this deck. Generally speaking, I'd want our sideboard cards to be either bombs agaiunst problem decks/cards (chalices, blood moons, shattering spree, sweepers) or have a very wide range of potential use (engineered explosives, brutality). If you don't have chalices I don't think it'll dilute the deck's power level too much. I would replace those with some number of explosives/sweepers or brutalities, depending on your metagame.
pretty sure there's nothing to see here.. many of the abilities had me drooling for a bit for the non-shoal grixis vengeance deck.. but ehh. feels like this card should have hexproof
Choose 1 -
*Search your library for a card, put it into your hand, then shuffle your library
*Choose a card you own from outside the game and put it into your hand
Basically a Diabolical Tutor or Death Wish all for 4 mana and without the life loss. Pretty sure it's too highly costed, and diabolical tutor has been legal for years without play, but the power level is certainly there with the flexibility.
Eldrazi Tron is much better than it looks. Most drazi players play the deck very poorly, so it looks worse than it is. There's a small group of drazi players in my legs that play it very well and win a ton! Of course it excels in certain metas and is worse in others. Of course finalnub's evaluation of card choices is good. One reason I like blood moon is that we are quite likely to be on the ttb plan post board and keeping tks from ruining that is important. Of course the matchup changes a ton depending if they have mind stone or surgical. Those cards have been prevalent or completely absent at different times. So, try to pay attention to what your opponent does in game one (or scout em).
Chalice does a unique thing, but if you don't have em, you can replace them with other cards that are good in whatever matchup you expect. Leyline stops a lot of decks where chalice is good (discard, burn, lantern, etc.) but is also not cheap. Boseiju stops counters (but not reliable against UW or Queller). Brutality helps against counters as well by being a discard spell and discard outlet. Another pact wouldn't be terrible against shadow, either. Or brig in more removal or sweepers.
I do sometimes trim looting and Goryo against decks with a ton of GY hate. But, I still want the option to just nut draw if they don't have it
Another round of let's stop Finalnub from ******* up..! I think this problem demands observations from multiple angles. I thought of three viable lines, which all felt close at the time.
Situation: Game 3 vs. Jeskai Tempo ft. Geists. Only real relevant note is you've seen negates out of his sideboard
The turn up to this decision point:
I start at 14 life, 5 lands.
Opp starts with 1 Island tapped and 5 lands untapped, 15 life and 6 cards in the GY
Draw Goryo's Vengeance for the turn (hand now consists of 2 Vengeances and a Pact as relevant cards)
Play Mountain
Goryo's Vengeance, targeting Griselbrand
Opp Casts Logic Knot, Exiling 5 cards out of 8 from his GY for X=5 (1 card in opp's GY)
With Logic Knot on the stack, Goryo's Vengeance #2, targeting Griselbrand, resolves. First Logic Knot resolves. (2 cards in opp's GY)
Move to Beginning of Combat, opp casts Path to Exile
Pact of Negation, targeting Path to Exile (resolves)
Griselbrand hits for 7 (Opp at 8, I'm at 14, 3 cards in opp's GY, 2 Steam Vents untapped)
Draw 7 to go down to 7 life.
Cast Nourishing Shoal Exiling Borborygmos
Opponent casts Logic Knot X=3
Relevant facts:
2 Pacts of Negation left in the deck
1 Nourishing Shoal left
4 Worldspine Wurm left
2 Borborygmos Enraged total (i.e. one is exiled, other is in our hand)
1 Desperate Ritual, 4 SSGs left
3 lands in our hand
Rest of the relevant cards are visible in the screenshot, except I have 2 faithless lootings total in hand
In the game vs Jeskai geist I think most lines start with you pitching a shoal to cast another shoal. Puts you up to 9 and lets you draw another 7, and after that there are a ton of different possibilities. Best case you pick up 3 mana sources which could include a shoal plus wurm to help get to a borborygmos breach. If you get one source I think you pay for the knot and draw another 7 after that and can hopefully go off from there. You could also just let the knot resolve and then collective brutality to try to get a counter out of the opponent's hand and then win with the pact trigger on the stack. You can also pitch shoal to shoal to make sure you don't die to bolt+counter+land in that line. Lots of different lines, curious to hear what ended up happening!
Interesting, damnjoni. That was a line that did not cross my mind during play . Goes to show how complciated this deck can be if you want to squeeze the last few percentage points
Here's my solution:
We'll need some math, format knowledge and intuition to come to a good solution. The first thing to observe is because the opponent let Vengeance #2 resolve, we can infer that s/he has no spell snare, dispel or negate in hand. The only pieces of permission he could plausibly still have in hand is Cryptic Command or Logic Knot.
Second, typical Jeskai lists seem to be playing 3-4 Cryptic Commands, 2-3 Logic Knots, 0-2 Spell Snares and 0-2 Mana Leaks. They have roughly ~9 counterspells in the mainboard, and around 3 in the sideboard (dispels, negates). So we can say we should be expecting 12 permissions to be in the opponent's 60 post-board. Note that we have seen 2 Logic Knots and 1 Negate in this game and no other piece of permission.
I considered a few lines:
1) Let the Logic Knot resolve, Looting twice to dig for pacts of negations to fight permission off the top of their deck. If we are absolutely sure they have no permission in hand, this could be the best line. However, Cryptic Command and Logic Knot could plausibly be in their hand.
2) Let the Logic Knot resolve, Escalate Brutality to spot check for permission, with the plan to win on my next upkeep with the Pact trigger on the stack. This plays around 1 piece of permission in their hand, but not 2 nor does it protect against their top deck.
3) Shoal pitching Shoal to go up to 9 and draw 7 cards. from there, several things can happen, including a) finding a pact for their logic knot to let the first shoal resolve, and try to combo off, finding a piece of fast mana so we pay for the Knot and gain 8 to draw more cards towards comboing this turn or Pacts, c) Combination of a) and b), and d) missing on pact and fast mana and being dead on board to their Queller and Colonnade
(damnjoni's line) 4) Let the Logic Knot resolve, Escalate Brutality to go up to 9 and spot check for permission and try to combo.
Relevant Math via hypergeometric calculator, given 31 cards left in our deck and 42 in theirs:
Probability(Opp topdecks permission, assuming 12 total counterspells post-board and 3 already used)=21%
Pr(Opp's 2 last cards in hand are 2 OF Cryptic Commands/Logic Knot given 44 unknown cards)=1%
Pr(at least 1 Wurm in the next 7 cards drawn)=66%
Pr(at least 1 of the 5 fast mana in the next 7 cards)=75%
Pr(at least 1 of the 2 Pacts in the next 7 cards)=
Pr(all 5 fast mana within the last 28 cards)=59%
Pr(4 out of 5 fast mana within the last 28 cards)=94%
Pr(at least 1 of 2 remaining Pacts in 2 Lootings)=25%
Pr(at least 3 fast mana in the next 14 cards)=40%
I think 4) is a bit too risky, given that if we brick on the next 7 cards on Wurm (34%) we just simply die. Also, given that we are operating on no lands and 5 mana sources left mana is a non-zero risk as well. From above, we only have a 59% chance that all 5 pieces of fast mana is within 4 Griselbrand draws. 59% isn't exactly the fail rate, as ritual and shoal shenanigans can reduce the fast mana requirement to 4 pieces (in which case we'll find 4 fast mana within the next 28 cards at a 94% rate), but it's not a given that we'll have gained enough life to dig 28 cards deep, as that will require 3 Shoal+Wurm cast. Given this, I believe 4) is too risky
1) I believe is the best if we have a soul read that he has no pieces of permission in his hand, and want to be as safe proof as possible for the topdecked permission. GIven that he can plausibly have the last Logic Knot or 1 of the 4 Cryptic Commands still in hand given the play pattern, I believe this is a pretty reckless line
The thesis for 3) is that you are unlikely to brick on the spot and are likely to draw at least 1 piece of fast mana to pay for the Knot so the first Shoal for 8 resolves while freerolling towards Pacts to protect your attempt to Breach in a Borborygmos on your next upkeep. In this spot, to not immediately die on the spot you need to hit 1 of 5 fast mana to pay for the Knot or 1 of 2 Pact in the deck (87% to hit one of your "7 outs" to not die on the spot i.e. 13% chance to die on the spot).
I think Shoal pitching Shoal and hoping to combo is pretty ambitious. You'll need to draw your second pact for the Knot, a Wurm and the last Shoal to draw 14 cards. Those 14 cards will need 3 pieces of fast mana FTW, and this is assuming you can draw into a Pact in the next 7. Otherwise, you need to deal with the Knot to gain life from the first Shoal. Without doing too much math, I think this is too much risk
Which leads to my preferred solution, which is 2). If we were to accept teh assumption that he has no snare/negate/dispel in hand (likely given play pattern), then this would only backfire on us big time if both of the opponent's remaining 2 cards are 2 of the remaining 4 Cryptics+1 Logic Knot (~1%). Otherwise, the only risk to us is that we get got by his topdecked permission for our Breach on the next upkeep, which, assuming 12 total counterspells post board and 3 of them having been used alraedy, is around 21%.
Therefore, we can conclude that 2) has a ~78% success rate
Given the assumed 78% success rate, and the conditional nature of all of the other solutions (having to draw into x which leads to having to draw into y etc.), I think 78% is as good as it gets of us.
Obviously, you cannot run all of these numbers in-game, but I think this highlights that it's more important to know how to approach these problems with imperfect information (just like how these silly finance/consulting interview questions like "how many windows are in the City of New York" isn't about the answer, but the approach).
In this particular case, I think the takeaway is that if you can guarantee yourself a predictible high expected value spot with the draws to the outs being one (i.e. opponent's one remaining draw step), it's likely better than increasing your draws (Griselbrand activations) at the cost of increasing the number of required outs (such as a combination of fast mana, shoal+wurm, pact etc. in these other scenarios), you should not take the solution that requires multiple outs.
In the actual game, I let the Logic Knot resolve, Brutality with escalation to play around Queller+2 burn spells, saw no pieces of permission, and won on my Upkeep.
1. good point about Cliques. Recent jeskai lists seem to be playing 1-2 cliques. This is somewhat countered by lists playing 0-2 spell snares, which actually does not count in our permission count since it doesn't work against Breach, so the actual conclusion should be roughly the same as what I outlined. Very good point though that Clique is an out.
2. I'm not quite sure what you mean by the shoal comment. The maximum damage they could do is 2+4+3=9 (Queller+Colonnade+two of their 3 cards must be an untapped land+bolt). When we drain, we'll go up to 9, and we can shoal up to get out of the worst case scenario's range. You'll know what you are playing around once you brutality them and look at their hand anyway, but as good practice can't imagine not shoaling here since you are likely discarding those anyway and you are winning or losing next turn.
3. An added benefit to the brutality line is that you do not let Helix bet you. As I noted, we only have 3 lands, so if the opponent is at 8, we cannot beat a helix and a Pact of Negation trigger
Hello Grshoalbrand mates!, this is my first communication at this forum.
I have been playing this deck since I read the 1st Kathal post in 2014. Kathal, thanks so much for showing this deck up to the rest of combo players, I have had so fun momments with it :).
After playing with this deck a little bit Kathal, how do you see the posibility of splashing green again to include time of need? I feel so comfortable with it in the deck, it has saved to me in a little of sittuation looking for the Grishelbrand or just pitching into shoal.
I´m currently pilotting 2 copies of it :).
I encourage all of you to try to test and include it in your deck.
Regards,
Soltari
do you have a list we can have a look at? I'm curious to see what other green cards you'd use (decay?), but I'm skeptical about adding a third color and making the landbase more painful.
Had a pretty good weekend of Magic. Went to a 33 people win a case modern and got 9th(just shy of cutting to top 8 by 1 point). On Sunday I played in a St Louis league that has bi weekly formats and I got 1st....only 8 people showed but beat all competitive decks.
33 man tournament
R1 played Saheeli Rai combo and got it in 3 games. Not a bad match up just should have went to 5 in G1 and it prob would have been 2-0
R2 played Combo coco with Scooze. Made a massive misplay by discarding the wrong green card and lost 0-2. I think I could have won this one and I learned to slow down no matter how anxious your opp is
R3 played Scapeshift 2-0 turn 3 g1 and g2 I got a bloodmoon down on 2 and 3 HA
R4 Honestly not too sure what I played as the guy walked away after signing the slip.... got him on turn 2 both games. 2-0
R5 Lost to burn.... He deflecting palmed my worldspine wurm....1-2
R6 Lost game 1 to burn G2 he played Leyline of punishment on turn 0 and 2 tormonds crypt's on turn 1. Worldspined him on 4 and won. G3 I got chalice on 1 and chalice on 2 and he scooped
Overall I blame my R2. I could have won if I slowed down and played at my own pace
8 man
R1 beat Hollowed one 2-0 nothing too interesting here.
R2 4-c Death Shadow lost 1-2
R3 4-c Death Shadow won 2-0 My opp had to mulligan their ass off both games.... Win didnt feel great
R4 4-c Death Shadow seems to be everyone favorite thing right now 2-0
R5 Played my R1 opp got it 2-1 vs Hollowed one
Winner winner chicken dinner
If you want to watch the replays the commentary is lacking but just fast forward to where it says Dustin and Grishoalbrand for a bit of video on it. Time marks are 50m and 3hr. COMMENTATORS HAVE NO CLUE WHAT IM DOING EVER FAIR WARNING
Watching my replay on the first video Im not sure why I didnt play blood moon on 4. I thought she had stubborn denial on 3 but I should have played it on 4 to cut her off blue. I think I was kinda tilted off the turn 1 thoughtsieze surgical
also kept a questionable hand in g2 but I thought moon + temple could get me where I needed to be
Definitely not perfect play. Need to slow down and make sure I make the right plays at all times
2. I'm not quite sure what you mean by the shoal comment. The maximum damage they could do is 2+4+3=9 (Queller+Colonnade+two of their 3 cards must be an untapped land+bolt). When we drain, we'll go up to 9, and we can shoal up to get out of the worst case scenario's range. You'll know what you are playing around once you brutality them and look at their hand anyway, but as good practice can't imagine not shoaling here since you are likely discarding those anyway and you are winning or losing next turn.
Oh, my bad. Meant that should we Splice Breach onto Shoal on our upkeep? If they drew Snappy to flashback Knot to counter the Breach vs. if they drew Queller/Snare to counter Shoal in which the Breach is spiced. Brutality of course shows if they have one in hand but if they don't, which one you think we should play around?
OK I see what you mean. You already see one Queller while you haven't seen a snapcaster, and I think Jeskai tempo shells play 4 snapcasters, so the technically correct move is to keep the 2 shoals, 3 lands, and breach and shoal splice breach on the next upkeep IF you see a hand that does not have the possibility of an untapped land+snapcaster (so they can logic knot for 3).
You're right though I was ignoring snapcaster+untapped land as an out as I was automatically discounting Quellers as an out because Breach costs 5. Decreases scenario 2)'s win % by a bit, but probably not material enough to change the decision. More goes to show how it's impractical to do all of this during the game and how it's more important to know how to tackle these problems on the spot
I played in two 3 round tournaments with Grishoalbrand at the GP Santa Clara.
First one. Round 1 vs. Mono Blue Tron. 2-0.
Round 2 vs. Jeskai Queller. 2-1.
Round 3 vs. Elves. 2-0.
Second one. Round 1 vs. Affinity. 2-0.
Round 2 vs. Jeskai Queller. 2-1.
Round 3 vs. Grixis Shadow. 1-2.
More details to come...
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Generally speaking, their postboard deck gets significantly better. They bring in a lot of hateful cards ranging from relics to cages to surgicals. As such, I would lean towards bringing in Blood Moons on the play as it can (rarely) be a win condition and at worst will slow them down, which we may be forced to do with the hate (not to mention chalice on 2, which is annoying but can be played around with shoal splicing vengeance or breach).
As for what to sideboard in/out:
*take out all brutalities
*postboard games are going to be less about speed, so I'd take out all but one ritual
*it's not about speed (plus it's a 2 cmc card), so I'm fine cutting the manamorphose
*I would bring in Moons on the play, and perhaps Bontu's on the draw.
*I would bring in all Lightning Axes you have.
Thanks for the advice..how about cutting on the any of the cantrips?
I would cut Hugs vs. counterspells
I would only cut Night's Whispers if the life loss is actively bad (burn, some aggressive zoo style decks like Turbo Hollow One). You really don't want to dilute your deck too much unless your Plan A is so bad you have to transform into a bad BR control deck with a combo finish (infect, lantern, grixis shadows), at which point you can cut some number of canrips/combo pieces.
given that you are faster than almost any decks in the format your opponent will be asking the questions, and not you. That's why I highly dislike discard unless it's a more multi-functional card like Brutality which is fantastic in this deck. Generally speaking, I'd want our sideboard cards to be either bombs agaiunst problem decks/cards (chalices, blood moons, shattering spree, sweepers) or have a very wide range of potential use (engineered explosives, brutality). If you don't have chalices I don't think it'll dilute the deck's power level too much. I would replace those with some number of explosives/sweepers or brutalities, depending on your metagame.
pretty sure there's nothing to see here.. many of the abilities had me drooling for a bit for the non-shoal grixis vengeance deck.. but ehh. feels like this card should have hexproof
the link seems broken, so here it is:
Mastermind's Acquisition
2BB
Sorcery
Choose 1 -
*Search your library for a card, put it into your hand, then shuffle your library
*Choose a card you own from outside the game and put it into your hand
Basically a Diabolical Tutor or Death Wish all for 4 mana and without the life loss. Pretty sure it's too highly costed, and diabolical tutor has been legal for years without play, but the power level is certainly there with the flexibility.
Chalice does a unique thing, but if you don't have em, you can replace them with other cards that are good in whatever matchup you expect. Leyline stops a lot of decks where chalice is good (discard, burn, lantern, etc.) but is also not cheap. Boseiju stops counters (but not reliable against UW or Queller). Brutality helps against counters as well by being a discard spell and discard outlet. Another pact wouldn't be terrible against shadow, either. Or brig in more removal or sweepers.
I do sometimes trim looting and Goryo against decks with a ton of GY hate. But, I still want the option to just nut draw if they don't have it
Situation: Game 3 vs. Jeskai Tempo ft. Geists. Only real relevant note is you've seen negates out of his sideboard
The turn up to this decision point:
I start at 14 life, 5 lands.
Opp starts with 1 Island tapped and 5 lands untapped, 15 life and 6 cards in the GY
Draw Goryo's Vengeance for the turn (hand now consists of 2 Vengeances and a Pact as relevant cards)
Play Mountain
Goryo's Vengeance, targeting Griselbrand
Opp Casts Logic Knot, Exiling 5 cards out of 8 from his GY for X=5 (1 card in opp's GY)
With Logic Knot on the stack, Goryo's Vengeance #2, targeting Griselbrand, resolves. First Logic Knot resolves. (2 cards in opp's GY)
Move to Beginning of Combat, opp casts Path to Exile
Pact of Negation, targeting Path to Exile (resolves)
Griselbrand hits for 7 (Opp at 8, I'm at 14, 3 cards in opp's GY, 2 Steam Vents untapped)
Draw 7 to go down to 7 life.
Cast Nourishing Shoal Exiling Borborygmos
Opponent casts Logic Knot X=3
Relevant facts:
2 Pacts of Negation left in the deck
1 Nourishing Shoal left
4 Worldspine Wurm left
2 Borborygmos Enraged total (i.e. one is exiled, other is in our hand)
1 Desperate Ritual, 4 SSGs left
3 lands in our hand
Rest of the relevant cards are visible in the screenshot, except I have 2 faithless lootings total in hand
Here's my solution:
We'll need some math, format knowledge and intuition to come to a good solution. The first thing to observe is because the opponent let Vengeance #2 resolve, we can infer that s/he has no spell snare, dispel or negate in hand. The only pieces of permission he could plausibly still have in hand is Cryptic Command or Logic Knot.
Second, typical Jeskai lists seem to be playing 3-4 Cryptic Commands, 2-3 Logic Knots, 0-2 Spell Snares and 0-2 Mana Leaks. They have roughly ~9 counterspells in the mainboard, and around 3 in the sideboard (dispels, negates). So we can say we should be expecting 12 permissions to be in the opponent's 60 post-board. Note that we have seen 2 Logic Knots and 1 Negate in this game and no other piece of permission.
I considered a few lines:
1) Let the Logic Knot resolve, Looting twice to dig for pacts of negations to fight permission off the top of their deck. If we are absolutely sure they have no permission in hand, this could be the best line. However, Cryptic Command and Logic Knot could plausibly be in their hand.
2) Let the Logic Knot resolve, Escalate Brutality to spot check for permission, with the plan to win on my next upkeep with the Pact trigger on the stack. This plays around 1 piece of permission in their hand, but not 2 nor does it protect against their top deck.
3) Shoal pitching Shoal to go up to 9 and draw 7 cards. from there, several things can happen, including a) finding a pact for their logic knot to let the first shoal resolve, and try to combo off, finding a piece of fast mana so we pay for the Knot and gain 8 to draw more cards towards comboing this turn or Pacts, c) Combination of a) and b), and d) missing on pact and fast mana and being dead on board to their Queller and Colonnade
(damnjoni's line) 4) Let the Logic Knot resolve, Escalate Brutality to go up to 9 and spot check for permission and try to combo.
Relevant Math via hypergeometric calculator, given 31 cards left in our deck and 42 in theirs:
Probability(Opp topdecks permission, assuming 12 total counterspells post-board and 3 already used)=21%
Pr(Opp's 2 last cards in hand are 2 OF Cryptic Commands/Logic Knot given 44 unknown cards)=1%
Pr(at least 1 Wurm in the next 7 cards drawn)=66%
Pr(at least 1 of the 5 fast mana in the next 7 cards)=75%
Pr(at least 1 of the 2 Pacts in the next 7 cards)=
Pr(all 5 fast mana within the last 28 cards)=59%
Pr(4 out of 5 fast mana within the last 28 cards)=94%
Pr(at least 1 of 2 remaining Pacts in 2 Lootings)=25%
Pr(at least 3 fast mana in the next 14 cards)=40%
I think 4) is a bit too risky, given that if we brick on the next 7 cards on Wurm (34%) we just simply die. Also, given that we are operating on no lands and 5 mana sources left mana is a non-zero risk as well. From above, we only have a 59% chance that all 5 pieces of fast mana is within 4 Griselbrand draws. 59% isn't exactly the fail rate, as ritual and shoal shenanigans can reduce the fast mana requirement to 4 pieces (in which case we'll find 4 fast mana within the next 28 cards at a 94% rate), but it's not a given that we'll have gained enough life to dig 28 cards deep, as that will require 3 Shoal+Wurm cast. Given this, I believe 4) is too risky
1) I believe is the best if we have a soul read that he has no pieces of permission in his hand, and want to be as safe proof as possible for the topdecked permission. GIven that he can plausibly have the last Logic Knot or 1 of the 4 Cryptic Commands still in hand given the play pattern, I believe this is a pretty reckless line
The thesis for 3) is that you are unlikely to brick on the spot and are likely to draw at least 1 piece of fast mana to pay for the Knot so the first Shoal for 8 resolves while freerolling towards Pacts to protect your attempt to Breach in a Borborygmos on your next upkeep. In this spot, to not immediately die on the spot you need to hit 1 of 5 fast mana to pay for the Knot or 1 of 2 Pact in the deck (87% to hit one of your "7 outs" to not die on the spot i.e. 13% chance to die on the spot).
I think Shoal pitching Shoal and hoping to combo is pretty ambitious. You'll need to draw your second pact for the Knot, a Wurm and the last Shoal to draw 14 cards. Those 14 cards will need 3 pieces of fast mana FTW, and this is assuming you can draw into a Pact in the next 7. Otherwise, you need to deal with the Knot to gain life from the first Shoal. Without doing too much math, I think this is too much risk
Which leads to my preferred solution, which is 2). If we were to accept teh assumption that he has no snare/negate/dispel in hand (likely given play pattern), then this would only backfire on us big time if both of the opponent's remaining 2 cards are 2 of the remaining 4 Cryptics+1 Logic Knot (~1%). Otherwise, the only risk to us is that we get got by his topdecked permission for our Breach on the next upkeep, which, assuming 12 total counterspells post board and 3 of them having been used alraedy, is around 21%.
Therefore, we can conclude that 2) has a ~78% success rate
Given the assumed 78% success rate, and the conditional nature of all of the other solutions (having to draw into x which leads to having to draw into y etc.), I think 78% is as good as it gets of us.
Obviously, you cannot run all of these numbers in-game, but I think this highlights that it's more important to know how to approach these problems with imperfect information (just like how these silly finance/consulting interview questions like "how many windows are in the City of New York" isn't about the answer, but the approach).
In this particular case, I think the takeaway is that if you can guarantee yourself a predictible high expected value spot with the draws to the outs being one (i.e. opponent's one remaining draw step), it's likely better than increasing your draws (Griselbrand activations) at the cost of increasing the number of required outs (such as a combination of fast mana, shoal+wurm, pact etc. in these other scenarios), you should not take the solution that requires multiple outs.
In the actual game, I let the Logic Knot resolve, Brutality with escalation to play around Queller+2 burn spells, saw no pieces of permission, and won on my Upkeep.
2. I'm not quite sure what you mean by the shoal comment. The maximum damage they could do is 2+4+3=9 (Queller+Colonnade+two of their 3 cards must be an untapped land+bolt). When we drain, we'll go up to 9, and we can shoal up to get out of the worst case scenario's range. You'll know what you are playing around once you brutality them and look at their hand anyway, but as good practice can't imagine not shoaling here since you are likely discarding those anyway and you are winning or losing next turn.
3. An added benefit to the brutality line is that you do not let Helix bet you. As I noted, we only have 3 lands, so if the opponent is at 8, we cannot beat a helix and a Pact of Negation trigger
33 man tournament
R1 played Saheeli Rai combo and got it in 3 games. Not a bad match up just should have went to 5 in G1 and it prob would have been 2-0
R2 played Combo coco with Scooze. Made a massive misplay by discarding the wrong green card and lost 0-2. I think I could have won this one and I learned to slow down no matter how anxious your opp is
R3 played Scapeshift 2-0 turn 3 g1 and g2 I got a bloodmoon down on 2 and 3 HA
R4 Honestly not too sure what I played as the guy walked away after signing the slip.... got him on turn 2 both games. 2-0
R5 Lost to burn.... He deflecting palmed my worldspine wurm....1-2
R6 Lost game 1 to burn G2 he played Leyline of punishment on turn 0 and 2 tormonds crypt's on turn 1. Worldspined him on 4 and won. G3 I got chalice on 1 and chalice on 2 and he scooped
Overall I blame my R2. I could have won if I slowed down and played at my own pace
8 man
R1 beat Hollowed one 2-0 nothing too interesting here.
R2 4-c Death Shadow lost 1-2
R3 4-c Death Shadow won 2-0 My opp had to mulligan their ass off both games.... Win didnt feel great
R4 4-c Death Shadow seems to be everyone favorite thing right now 2-0
R5 Played my R1 opp got it 2-1 vs Hollowed one
Winner winner chicken dinner
If you want to watch the replays the commentary is lacking but just fast forward to where it says Dustin and Grishoalbrand for a bit of video on it. Time marks are 50m and 3hr. COMMENTATORS HAVE NO CLUE WHAT IM DOING EVER FAIR WARNING
https://www.twitch.tv/videos/216375737
also kept a questionable hand in g2 but I thought moon + temple could get me where I needed to be
Definitely not perfect play. Need to slow down and make sure I make the right plays at all times
You're right though I was ignoring snapcaster+untapped land as an out as I was automatically discounting Quellers as an out because Breach costs 5. Decreases scenario 2)'s win % by a bit, but probably not material enough to change the decision. More goes to show how it's impractical to do all of this during the game and how it's more important to know how to tackle these problems on the spot
First one.
Round 1 vs. Mono Blue Tron. 2-0.
Round 2 vs. Jeskai Queller. 2-1.
Round 3 vs. Elves. 2-0.
Second one.
Round 1 vs. Affinity. 2-0.
Round 2 vs. Jeskai Queller. 2-1.
Round 3 vs. Grixis Shadow. 1-2.
More details to come...
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)