Maximizing the basic land count will be vital. BGx might end up feeling a lot like UW Control in how they have the ability to overwhelm our basic count for value.
On the plus side, AT can't just slot into anything like Damping Sphere can. On the other hand, AT will certainly be a maindeck 3-4-of in anything that can play it. If GBx is still not optimal against the rest of the field, its popularity will subside after a little while. We will just have to playtest and adjust like we always do, with these trends and ideas as a starting point.
Regarding Urza's Factory, having a tutorable, uncounterable, repeatable threat has been really nice against midrange and control. Because AT feeds us Forests, it's still very realistic to be able to activate even without Tron online later in the game. This ends up very similar to how it works against control decks; it's one more thing for them to worry about that can take over the game if left unchecked, and it fixes our mana if they have broken Tron worst case.
I think it's important to note Assassin's Trophy only goes in 1 archetype. Yeah, BGx will see more play with this card and it's a beating for us, but it's not like its a terrible matchup like Infect and they just got Git Probe back or something like that. Modern is a huge format with innumerable decks keeping each other in check. This card is not going to kill Tron.
This card is strong enough that I suspect we'll see decks splashing an additional color to include it. But yes, way too soon to make any "Tron is dead" claims.
In regards to Factory as a 20th land, is the plan to run it out of the SB? I don't think we can afford to run 20 MD, and I don't think we can afford to run it over a 5th Forest in the 19. I've had some success with Factory when I've flooded out vs midrange-y decks, but I generally just want more basics vs Field decks (and Trophy is similar to Field).
I also don't know if I want Factory in my SB if I could just be playing 1 Breaker/1 Emrakul or even a 4th Thragtusk. Sure, you can find Factory with Map/Scrying, but most Trophy decks have access to Fulminator out of the SB, and I'd rather focus on the 5-6 mana threats. Spending an SB slot on it just feels a little awkward to me (8 mana is a lot, and the token can get bogged down a lot too).
Well... I ran Tron at a pptq last weekend and was planning on running it this weekend at another one.
However, the printing of assassin's trophy has me feeling like the heyday of Tron is probably over. I'm testing for a GP in December and if I can't guarantee a decent midrange matchup I don't really know why I'm playing the deck. Sorry for jumping ship but I think that's what I'm gonna do for a couple of months just to see how it shakes out. I don't want to put in weeks of testing for a deck that might almost disappear overnight.
Regardless of whether you decide on Tron or not, you need to add Trophy to your testing gauntlet. I don't think any deck you pick now is going to get out of the Trophy addition completely unscathed; BGx obviously gets a big boost, but KCI also takes a hit from the fact that it now gets hit by an MD instant-speed removal spell (KCI loved that it dodged Decay out of BGx, and even if it has Ruin for KCI itself, the deck is still very low on basics). Even on a whole other level, the increased % gained by BGx deck is going to change the Modern landscape as we know it.
BGx basically is just worse than all the UWx slow decks right now, and it's going to be at least as good as them after Trophy comes out.
Until now (thanks AT), I had been running four Forests and the single Factory. I activated Factory roughly as many times with Tron online as without, and it singlehandedly carried me in games where I'd flooded out or they were sitting on counters in-hand.
We all seem to agree that five Forests should be the norm, so my plan is to move the Factory to the board. I don't like it more than a single World Breaker (which I still have in the main), but I definitely prefer it to Emrakul TPE; the latter has done little more than draw extra cards for my opponents more often than not. Since it's also usually too slow against combo, and Relics make it more of a liability against AT-loaded GBx, Emrakul is coming out of my list completely.
Hadn't really considered a fourth copy of Thragtusk, but that's a fine idea given the circumstances.
Until now (thanks AT), I had been running four Forests and the single Factory. I activated Factory roughly as many times with Tron online as without, and it singlehandedly carried me in games where I'd flooded out or they were sitting on counters in-hand.
We all seem to agree that five Forests should be the norm, so my plan is to move the Factory to the board. I don't like it more than a single World Breaker (which I still have in the main), but I definitely prefer it to Emrakul TPE; the latter has done little more than draw extra cards for my opponents more often than not. Since it's also usually too slow against combo, and Relics make it more of a liability against AT-loaded GBx, Emrakul is coming out of my list completely.
Hadn't really considered a fourth copy of Thragtusk, but that's a fine idea given the circumstances.
Yeah, my testing with Emmy has always been a little love/hate. It's very good vs UWx (like +10% easy), but I tend to find it not that much better vs Ulamog vs fast combo (Emrakul tends to win a little more deterministically, but Ulamog wins a lot of the time as well - the problem is getting to that much mana). Vs BGx I find Emrakul super-anemic (fewer cards in hand generally), so whether I play 1 Emrakul post-Trophy relies almost solely on whether UWx is still as popular as it is now.
Though I also like the Thragtusk/TKS plan vs UWx, so running a lot of Tusks and TKS still sounds great to me.
I usually bone up on threats while pulling out sweepers against UW (+3 TKS, +3 Thragdad, -2 Ugin, -4 O-Stone for those six slots). Emrakul is, and has been, my biggest dud against them. Most of the time they counter it, then the cast trigger draws them a card that is neutral or worse (another utility land, a sweeper, or non-Cryptic counter). Seriously, this has happened the last three times I've played it against UW. My game winners always involved Ulamog, World Breaker, or Urza's Factory, and being able to turn an innocuous land search while flooded into a lasting threat, or simply drop Factory as a land when I draw it and Tron isn't up, has given more consistency than I would have thought before playtesting the card. It certainly might not be optimal, but it has been consistent against control and midrange for me. I know I'm passionate about arguing its case, but I'm not married to it over better options as they emerge.
As for Spellskite...I don't plan on reloading them into my board just yet. It's not good enough overall to justify bringing in against GBx on the hope to trade it for anything. The other decks I would bring it in against like Burn, Infect, and Bogles aren't prevalent enough to warrant it either, especially since Infect will end up less popular than even now with GB as its predator becoming a thing again.
Emrakul against UW is an interesting one, for sure. There are definitely times where it doesn't do much (if they counter it and don't have a lot of cheap interaction to waste), but if they can't counter it, well, it tends to be game-ending because they have no effective way of removing it. The big kicker though is the cost-reduction clause. Just today I cast it with only 8 lands in play through his Damping Sphere and Stony Silence, cast his Teferi, tucked his Jace that was in play, attacked his Baneslayer into my Emrakul, then Path'd his Snapcaster and shuffled the Jace away. Was pretty sick. A couple days ago I had 6 card types in the bin and cast it for just 7. Hard to beat that. Overall I think the card is very good in the matchup despite not quite being a you-win-the-game button. It's very similar to Ulamog in that respect, just with a lower floor and higher ceiling.
You know, for all the talk of it being good against Tron, I've been struck by a question: What about running Assassin's Trophy ourselves?
It hits Blood Moon, it hits Stony Silence, it hits Damping Sphere. Normally you bring in Nature's Claim for those cards, but you have the issue that if the opponent doesn't have them or doesn't draw them, your Nature's Claim isn't all that great. This card solves that problem in that it'll take out the hate cards if they're cast but can get rid of anything else annoying they might play. A lot of times I find myself having to figure out how many Nature's Claims to bring in because of the uncertainty of whether the opponent has those cards, but this you can bring in every time because you'll always have targets. Heck, it might be maindeckable; you could replace the standard Dismember with it, then put more in the sideboard for the decks it's especially potent against.
Sure, it makes you weaker against the opponent's Assassin's Trophies because you need to bring in some Black-producing lands. But a mana combination of 3 Forest+1 Swamp+1 BG land (probably Llanowar Wastes) still leaves you with a good number of basics to grab yourself while still being able to support the splash. Heck, with all the "get rid of a card, that player searches for a basic land" your odds of being able to get that Swamp is higher!
Getting two colors in this deck, especially early, is not something I think we should strive for. The risks seem to really outweigh the benefits here, especially since Stony Silence and Blood Moon stuff our ability to generate the mana we need to begin with. With every (other) GBx deck set to jam playsets of AT, more basics than even four is going to become critically important, as the decks using it will be built to exploit this. Going into black at all will be more risky, even before attempting to add spells with more demanding colored mana costs. AT is certainly an amazing card, but for Tron, it just feels like bait to me.
Getting two colors in this deck, especially early, is not something I think we should strive for. The risks seem to really outweigh the benefits here, especially since Stony Silence and Blood Moon stuff our ability to generate the mana we need to begin with. With every (other) GBx deck set to jam playsets of AT, more basics than even four is going to become critically important, as the decks using it will be built to exploit this. Going into black at all will be more risky, even before attempting to add spells with more demanding colored mana costs. AT is certainly an amazing card, but for Tron, it just feels like bait to me.
I do not agree that more basics than 4 is critically important due to the GBx decks, because they will not be running any more copies of this effect (i.e. "get rid of land, then we get basic land") than we currently face from UWx Control decks or EldraziTron. In fact, unless they are Abzan, we will see fewer of those effects, due to the lack of Path to Exile.
I don't see how the existence of this card should have any effect on the number of basic lands we run compared to how many we ran before it, because the amount of such effects per deck in the decks that run them do not seem to have increased. Perhaps the number of decks running them have increased, but that does not matter within the games themselves.
Getting two colors in this deck, especially early, is not something I think we should strive for. The risks seem to really outweigh the benefits here, especially since Stony Silence and Blood Moon stuff our ability to generate the mana we need to begin with. With every (other) GBx deck set to jam playsets of AT, more basics than even four is going to become critically important, as the decks using it will be built to exploit this. Going into black at all will be more risky, even before attempting to add spells with more demanding colored mana costs. AT is certainly an amazing card, but for Tron, it just feels like bait to me.
I do not agree that more basics than 4 is critically important due to the GBx decks, because they will not be running any more copies of this effect (i.e. "get rid of land, then we get basic land") than we currently face from UWx Control decks or EldraziTron. In fact, unless they are Abzan, we will see fewer of those effects, due to the lack of Path to Exile.
I don't see how the existence of this card should have any effect on the number of basic lands we run compared to how many we ran before it, because the amount of such effects per deck in the decks that run them do not seem to have increased. Perhaps the number of decks running them have increased, but that does not matter within the games themselves.
I agree, unless AT becomes Field/Path 5-8, this won't make a huge difference from what we already face against UW Control. The GBx matchup will get much closer, and we can't mull as aggressively, but I would rather face these decks than Infect, Storm, and KCI, which hopefully the resurgent GBx will drive out of the meta. This might even be a blessing if Tron starts flying under the radar again.
[quote from="Thenarus »" url="/forums/the-game/modern/established-modern/big-mana/220174-gx-tron?comment=9183"]I don't see how the existence of this card should have any effect on the number of basic lands we run compared to how many we ran before it, because the amount of such effects per deck in the decks that run them do not seem to have increased. Perhaps the number of decks running them have increased, but that does not matter within the games themselves.
5 is the number of basics you really want vs. UW control decks. 4 is pretty much a number that "is good enough vs. UW but still gives you space for 1 extra land for when you don't." If that meta % is now both UW control and BG midrange builds, then I want 5. On MTGO a good number of 5-0 mono-green lists run 5 basics because of how prevalent UWx is online. The problem with the 5th before is that it was just a hedge vs UW, but it was still a move a bunch of us were making if you wanted to hedge against UW specifically.
It's also worth pointing out just how Jeskai decks consolidated to UW after the printing of Field, I think there's room for a straight BG deck that plays Field and Trophy. Or Abzan, which as you pointed out may run Trophy and Path. In fact, Jund is the only one of the three combinations that wouldn't theoretically run as many effects as UW. It's also worth pointing out that running Path or Trophy in combination with a card like Trophy or Field is generally a powerful move, since a lot of decks can't afford to run more than 2-3 basics and all three of the cards are absurd when you run an opponent out of basics.
Going back to the main point, CC/CD mana costs have always been a problem for Tron. RG Tron never ran Anger over Firespout (a far superior card) even when it ran 4 Groves and 2 basics. 3 Marsh/1 Wastes BG Tron never dreamt of running Abrupt Decay in its SB, and Abrupt Decay is actually better at hitting all the hate cards you mentioned. The only CC/CD mana cost G Tron has ever run was Slaughter Games, and that's because we could sacrifice all our development to cast it vs RUG Scapeshift and win on the spot, back when RUG Scapeshift was one of the two or three decks to beat.
In fact, I think that Abrupt Decay is still largely a better SB card for us, if you really wanted to run one of the BG instants. It hits all the relevant hate pieces that Statue hits. It's far better vs. blue-based control decks in that it can't be countered. It's better vs. any deck that has basics to fetch, and I imagine that'll be more of the meta post-Trophy. It's better vs aggro decks such as Burn, Humans, and Spirits. It's far better vs. Storm in that it both can't get Remanded and doesn't turn your opponent's bear into a Rampant Growth when it does resolve. It's slightly better vs KCI, but to be honest Nature's Claim really isn't a good SB card against them in the first place. The only place where it's significantly better is in the mirror, where it still requires you to get BG in your first 3 turns to be useful at all.
In the end, BG is a very difficult cost to generate off of a 4-nonbasic 2-basic manabase, let alone a 4-basic 1-nonbasic one. It's almost impossible to cast through a Blood Moon unless you leave up BG on every turn (which likely means not cracking Stars or Spheres as well as never casting Sylvan Scrying or Ancient Stirrings on our own turns). And after all that, it's questionable whether it's a better card than Abrupt Decay, a card that's never been run in BG Tron back when every Tron build ran BG off a far less greedy manabase.
I could very well be completely wrong on this one, but there are just so many things wrong that I see with Trophy in Tron.
Yep, I'm definitely in agreement that Tron's manabase simply can not reliably support a 2-color card in general, nor do we particularly need Assassin's Trophy.
you guys see that new Goblin? that's just as concerning to me. this set is really looking like a really dark time for Tron. between them and the other new toys, is it possible Jund becomes a BAD match for us?
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Someone on the Gx Tron Facebook group mentioned going Karnless, and now there's a 5-0 list in a daily league that has traded all copies of Karn for more creatures. Very interesting.
you guys see that new Goblin? that's just as concerning to me. this set is really looking like a really dark time for Tron. between them and the other new toys, is it possible Jund becomes a BAD match for us?
Although I love the versatile design of the new tech Goblin, I don't see any competitive Modern decks making use of it. Goblins already beats us, and this card isn't going to make that deck more prevalent than it is (or isn't) now. Other decks aren't going out of their way to accommodate a bear with upside in red either. It is funny that this set is trying so hard to stuff Tron though; who in Play Design hates us so much?
Someone on the Gx Tron Facebook group mentioned going Karnless, and now there's a 5-0 list in a daily league that has traded all copies of Karn for more creatures. Very interesting.
you guys see that new Goblin? that's just as concerning to me. this set is really looking like a really dark time for Tron. between them and the other new toys, is it possible Jund becomes a BAD match for us?
Although I love the versatile design of the new tech Goblin, I don't see any competitive Modern decks making use of it. Goblins already beats us, and this card isn't going to make that deck more prevalent than it is (or isn't) now. Other decks aren't going out of their way to accommodate a bear with upside in red either. It is funny that this set is trying so hard to stuff Tron though; who in Play Design hates us so much?
Karnless is interesting. Karn is a very polarizing card; it's bad vs most aggressive decks, but insane vs most everything else. Given that aggressive decks are our worse MUs, cutting Karns for cards with more immediate impact is an interesting move. 4 Goyf SB seems interesting as well, but I can't say that I've tested it or I can endorse it.
As for the new Goblin, I don't see it really hurting our gameplan in a meaningful way. It's basically a red Maelstrom Pulse (3 mana, destroys nonlands), and I wouldn't call Maelstrom Pulse a card that really gives me much pause beyond a minor annoyance.
I dunno, it's hard for me to imagine cutting Karn being a net positive. What's the rationale exactly? Assassin's Trophy kills all those extra creatures just the same and you still get one activation out of Karn if they have it. And adding 2 World Breakers and an Emrakul is not going to help against aggressive creature decks any more than Karn would. It looks like that 5-0 list really just wanted a bunch of cast triggers, which is cool against UW and all, but when you get Karn down it's the best card in the matchup sooo. Not sure I understand what the point of cutting Karn is.
EDIT: Unless the goal is specifically to lower the curve to be more resilient to LD, in which case it would be smart to look at cards like Karn, Scion of Urza and Thragtusk in the main rather than adding more Breakers and big eldrazi.
I dunno, it's hard for me to imagine cutting Karn being a net positive. What's the rationale exactly? Assassin's Trophy kills all those extra creatures just the same and you still get one activation out of Karn if they have it. And adding 2 World Breakers and an Emrakul is not going to help against aggressive creature decks any more than Karn would. It looks like that 5-0 list really just wanted a bunch of cast triggers, which is cool against UW and all, but when you get Karn down it's the best card in the matchup sooo. Not sure I understand what the point of cutting Karn is.
EDIT: Unless the goal is specifically to lower the curve to be more resilient to LD, in which case it would be smart to look at cards like Karn, Scion of Urza and Thragtusk in the main rather than adding more Breakers and big eldrazi.
Totally agree. I can appreciate wanting to hedge on more bodies and triggers, but cutting Karn to add things that are more difficult to cast seems very suspect. I wonder what match-ups Autumn faced to score that 5-0?
She said the list was in fact geared towards beating UW, was experimental in general and she only played 2 leagues with it. She said she didn't miss Karn much over that timeframe. I'm not really convinced though - so you probably have a better g1 against UW, but there's also nothing in that sideboard to bring in and improve the matchup other than 2 Thragtusks which are solid but unremarkable, so is the MU actually that much better overall? There's some big holes in the SB in general - no TKS and only 2 gravehate in the 75 is gonna have you grasping at straws against unfair decks. Of course, the meta is tougher now and you do have to make some sacrifices and choose what you want to lose to to an extent, but I do wonder how strong the Goyf plan actually is. It definitely has some interesting applications, not the least of which simply surprising your removal-less opponents with it, but I'd need to actually test with it to see how it feels beyond that.
Also I'm still not a fan of the 4th Claim - the 4th copy still seems too narrow to me, and I don't really know what you need an All is Dust for when you already have 4 Ballistas on top of the normal removal suite.
Overall though the experimentation is very thought-provoking and welcomed, and will be necessary as the meta shifts with GRN. I think we have plenty of tools to adapt.
I've been playing without Karn for the past few days and I have to say that I've rarely missed it. While it's not a 1:1 comparison, after having tested it, I do think that World Breaker is the better card in the majority of situations against the current field. I have not felt that I've lost much at all by not having access to Karn on turn 3, because it's just not as strong a play right now as it has been in the past. The 4th Ballista mitigates this as well. The only matchup where I felt the deck was significantly worse due to not having Karn was the mirror, where Breaker is still very good, but much worse than Karn. Beyond that, Karn is a fair bit better against combo decks like Ad Naus, Titan Shift, and Ironworks due to being able to use the exile ability twice, but it's not a huge difference and these matchups are already unfavorable and not a large part of the metagame currently. The maindeck Emrakul swings the percentage points back a bit as well.
I narrowly missed a 5-0 today with this list, my hellbent Storm opponent ripping Past In Flames and killing me with my lethal board staring him down in game 3.
The main creature/PW suite is the same as AutumnLily's, but I'm sticking with 19 land and have a Dismember and Spellskite in the flex slots. I didn't want to play Relic as it's a nonbo with Emrakul and to a lesser extent World Breaker (if UW has no Path and is forced to counter it, you can keep looping it). Dismember is an easy inclusion and Spellskite is the spice card. It has reasonable applications across the field right now. Firstly it's great against Burn which is still super popular online (#1 metagame share in my games), providing an early blocker, turning their Bolts into Shocks and redirecting a Revelry or Path on a Wurmcoil post-board. Obviously the nuts against Infect which is a deck that is seeing consistent play. It's nice to be able to have a bullet like that to Stirrings into. Against Hardened Scales it can block early and stop them from killing you with Ravager. Also in the mirror it mitigates the loss of Karn slightly by being able to redirect one of their Karn or WB triggers. The slot may just be better as a 2nd Dismember, but with all the Burn I'm seeing right now I like it main.
Sideboard: Trying the Tarmogoyfs. Just a pair right now but I like them a lot. It's a super efficient threat against any control deck, the mirror and can put a solid clock on a combo deck. It's an excellent early blocker against Burn, Infect, Hollow One, Bridgevine, Grixis Shadow, etc. With all the cards those decks are dumping into the yard so quickly, it's often a 4/5 or 5/6 and can block Vengevine, Hollow One, Angler and early Shadows. Been very impressed with the card so far.
Beyond that, notably there is no graveyard hate here. I mentioned above I didn't like Relic for the nonbo with Emrakul because you often want them in the same matchups. I could fit a couple Surgicals pretty easily - probably cut 1 TKS and a Dismember, but it honestly doesn't feel that necessary. I'm not seeing much Bridgevine right now and that's the only matchup I'd really want it for.
The other thing this configuration has going for it is it's really good against Burn. I'm boarding in 14 cards - everything but the Dismember. Feels great.
Overall it's been really fun and feels strong.
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On the plus side, AT can't just slot into anything like Damping Sphere can. On the other hand, AT will certainly be a maindeck 3-4-of in anything that can play it. If GBx is still not optimal against the rest of the field, its popularity will subside after a little while. We will just have to playtest and adjust like we always do, with these trends and ideas as a starting point.
Regarding Urza's Factory, having a tutorable, uncounterable, repeatable threat has been really nice against midrange and control. Because AT feeds us Forests, it's still very realistic to be able to activate even without Tron online later in the game. This ends up very similar to how it works against control decks; it's one more thing for them to worry about that can take over the game if left unchecked, and it fixes our mana if they have broken Tron worst case.
This card is strong enough that I suspect we'll see decks splashing an additional color to include it. But yes, way too soon to make any "Tron is dead" claims.
I also don't know if I want Factory in my SB if I could just be playing 1 Breaker/1 Emrakul or even a 4th Thragtusk. Sure, you can find Factory with Map/Scrying, but most Trophy decks have access to Fulminator out of the SB, and I'd rather focus on the 5-6 mana threats. Spending an SB slot on it just feels a little awkward to me (8 mana is a lot, and the token can get bogged down a lot too).Regardless of whether you decide on Tron or not, you need to add Trophy to your testing gauntlet. I don't think any deck you pick now is going to get out of the Trophy addition completely unscathed; BGx obviously gets a big boost, but KCI also takes a hit from the fact that it now gets hit by an MD instant-speed removal spell (KCI loved that it dodged Decay out of BGx, and even if it has Ruin for KCI itself, the deck is still very low on basics). Even on a whole other level, the increased % gained by BGx deck is going to change the Modern landscape as we know it.
BGx basically is just worse than all the UWx slow decks right now, and it's going to be at least as good as them after Trophy comes out.
GX Tron XG
UR Phoenix RU
GG Freyalise High Tide GG
UR Parun Counterspells RU
BB Yawgmoth Token Storm BB
WB Pestilence BW
We all seem to agree that five Forests should be the norm, so my plan is to move the Factory to the board. I don't like it more than a single World Breaker (which I still have in the main), but I definitely prefer it to Emrakul TPE; the latter has done little more than draw extra cards for my opponents more often than not. Since it's also usually too slow against combo, and Relics make it more of a liability against AT-loaded GBx, Emrakul is coming out of my list completely.
Hadn't really considered a fourth copy of Thragtusk, but that's a fine idea given the circumstances.
Though I also like the Thragtusk/TKS plan vs UWx, so running a lot of Tusks and TKS still sounds great to me.
GX Tron XG
UR Phoenix RU
GG Freyalise High Tide GG
UR Parun Counterspells RU
BB Yawgmoth Token Storm BB
WB Pestilence BW
As for Spellskite...I don't plan on reloading them into my board just yet. It's not good enough overall to justify bringing in against GBx on the hope to trade it for anything. The other decks I would bring it in against like Burn, Infect, and Bogles aren't prevalent enough to warrant it either, especially since Infect will end up less popular than even now with GB as its predator becoming a thing again.
It hits Blood Moon, it hits Stony Silence, it hits Damping Sphere. Normally you bring in Nature's Claim for those cards, but you have the issue that if the opponent doesn't have them or doesn't draw them, your Nature's Claim isn't all that great. This card solves that problem in that it'll take out the hate cards if they're cast but can get rid of anything else annoying they might play. A lot of times I find myself having to figure out how many Nature's Claims to bring in because of the uncertainty of whether the opponent has those cards, but this you can bring in every time because you'll always have targets. Heck, it might be maindeckable; you could replace the standard Dismember with it, then put more in the sideboard for the decks it's especially potent against.
Sure, it makes you weaker against the opponent's Assassin's Trophies because you need to bring in some Black-producing lands. But a mana combination of 3 Forest+1 Swamp+1 BG land (probably Llanowar Wastes) still leaves you with a good number of basics to grab yourself while still being able to support the splash. Heck, with all the "get rid of a card, that player searches for a basic land" your odds of being able to get that Swamp is higher!
I don't see how the existence of this card should have any effect on the number of basic lands we run compared to how many we ran before it, because the amount of such effects per deck in the decks that run them do not seem to have increased. Perhaps the number of decks running them have increased, but that does not matter within the games themselves.
I agree, unless AT becomes Field/Path 5-8, this won't make a huge difference from what we already face against UW Control. The GBx matchup will get much closer, and we can't mull as aggressively, but I would rather face these decks than Infect, Storm, and KCI, which hopefully the resurgent GBx will drive out of the meta. This might even be a blessing if Tron starts flying under the radar again.
It's also worth pointing out just how Jeskai decks consolidated to UW after the printing of Field, I think there's room for a straight BG deck that plays Field and Trophy. Or Abzan, which as you pointed out may run Trophy and Path. In fact, Jund is the only one of the three combinations that wouldn't theoretically run as many effects as UW. It's also worth pointing out that running Path or Trophy in combination with a card like Trophy or Field is generally a powerful move, since a lot of decks can't afford to run more than 2-3 basics and all three of the cards are absurd when you run an opponent out of basics.
Going back to the main point, CC/CD mana costs have always been a problem for Tron. RG Tron never ran Anger over Firespout (a far superior card) even when it ran 4 Groves and 2 basics. 3 Marsh/1 Wastes BG Tron never dreamt of running Abrupt Decay in its SB, and Abrupt Decay is actually better at hitting all the hate cards you mentioned. The only CC/CD mana cost G Tron has ever run was Slaughter Games, and that's because we could sacrifice all our development to cast it vs RUG Scapeshift and win on the spot, back when RUG Scapeshift was one of the two or three decks to beat.
In fact, I think that Abrupt Decay is still largely a better SB card for us, if you really wanted to run one of the BG instants. It hits all the relevant hate pieces that Statue hits. It's far better vs. blue-based control decks in that it can't be countered. It's better vs. any deck that has basics to fetch, and I imagine that'll be more of the meta post-Trophy. It's better vs aggro decks such as Burn, Humans, and Spirits. It's far better vs. Storm in that it both can't get Remanded and doesn't turn your opponent's bear into a Rampant Growth when it does resolve. It's slightly better vs KCI, but to be honest Nature's Claim really isn't a good SB card against them in the first place. The only place where it's significantly better is in the mirror, where it still requires you to get BG in your first 3 turns to be useful at all.
In the end, BG is a very difficult cost to generate off of a 4-nonbasic 2-basic manabase, let alone a 4-basic 1-nonbasic one. It's almost impossible to cast through a Blood Moon unless you leave up BG on every turn (which likely means not cracking Stars or Spheres as well as never casting Sylvan Scrying or Ancient Stirrings on our own turns). And after all that, it's questionable whether it's a better card than Abrupt Decay, a card that's never been run in BG Tron back when every Tron build ran BG off a far less greedy manabase.
I could very well be completely wrong on this one, but there are just so many things wrong that I see with Trophy in Tron.
GX Tron XG
UR Phoenix RU
GG Freyalise High Tide GG
UR Parun Counterspells RU
BB Yawgmoth Token Storm BB
WB Pestilence BW
Although I love the versatile design of the new tech Goblin, I don't see any competitive Modern decks making use of it. Goblins already beats us, and this card isn't going to make that deck more prevalent than it is (or isn't) now. Other decks aren't going out of their way to accommodate a bear with upside in red either. It is funny that this set is trying so hard to stuff Tron though; who in Play Design hates us so much?
As for the new Goblin, I don't see it really hurting our gameplan in a meaningful way. It's basically a red Maelstrom Pulse (3 mana, destroys nonlands), and I wouldn't call Maelstrom Pulse a card that really gives me much pause beyond a minor annoyance.
GX Tron XG
UR Phoenix RU
GG Freyalise High Tide GG
UR Parun Counterspells RU
BB Yawgmoth Token Storm BB
WB Pestilence BW
EDIT: Unless the goal is specifically to lower the curve to be more resilient to LD, in which case it would be smart to look at cards like Karn, Scion of Urza and Thragtusk in the main rather than adding more Breakers and big eldrazi.
Totally agree. I can appreciate wanting to hedge on more bodies and triggers, but cutting Karn to add things that are more difficult to cast seems very suspect. I wonder what match-ups Autumn faced to score that 5-0?
https://twitter.com/AutumnLilyMTG/status/1039162492637904897
She said the list was in fact geared towards beating UW, was experimental in general and she only played 2 leagues with it. She said she didn't miss Karn much over that timeframe. I'm not really convinced though - so you probably have a better g1 against UW, but there's also nothing in that sideboard to bring in and improve the matchup other than 2 Thragtusks which are solid but unremarkable, so is the MU actually that much better overall? There's some big holes in the SB in general - no TKS and only 2 gravehate in the 75 is gonna have you grasping at straws against unfair decks. Of course, the meta is tougher now and you do have to make some sacrifices and choose what you want to lose to to an extent, but I do wonder how strong the Goyf plan actually is. It definitely has some interesting applications, not the least of which simply surprising your removal-less opponents with it, but I'd need to actually test with it to see how it feels beyond that.
Also I'm still not a fan of the 4th Claim - the 4th copy still seems too narrow to me, and I don't really know what you need an All is Dust for when you already have 4 Ballistas on top of the normal removal suite.
Overall though the experimentation is very thought-provoking and welcomed, and will be necessary as the meta shifts with GRN. I think we have plenty of tools to adapt.
I've been playing without Karn for the past few days and I have to say that I've rarely missed it. While it's not a 1:1 comparison, after having tested it, I do think that World Breaker is the better card in the majority of situations against the current field. I have not felt that I've lost much at all by not having access to Karn on turn 3, because it's just not as strong a play right now as it has been in the past. The 4th Ballista mitigates this as well. The only matchup where I felt the deck was significantly worse due to not having Karn was the mirror, where Breaker is still very good, but much worse than Karn. Beyond that, Karn is a fair bit better against combo decks like Ad Naus, Titan Shift, and Ironworks due to being able to use the exile ability twice, but it's not a huge difference and these matchups are already unfavorable and not a large part of the metagame currently. The maindeck Emrakul swings the percentage points back a bit as well.
I narrowly missed a 5-0 today with this list, my hellbent Storm opponent ripping Past In Flames and killing me with my lethal board staring him down in game 3.
The main creature/PW suite is the same as AutumnLily's, but I'm sticking with 19 land and have a Dismember and Spellskite in the flex slots. I didn't want to play Relic as it's a nonbo with Emrakul and to a lesser extent World Breaker (if UW has no Path and is forced to counter it, you can keep looping it). Dismember is an easy inclusion and Spellskite is the spice card. It has reasonable applications across the field right now. Firstly it's great against Burn which is still super popular online (#1 metagame share in my games), providing an early blocker, turning their Bolts into Shocks and redirecting a Revelry or Path on a Wurmcoil post-board. Obviously the nuts against Infect which is a deck that is seeing consistent play. It's nice to be able to have a bullet like that to Stirrings into. Against Hardened Scales it can block early and stop them from killing you with Ravager. Also in the mirror it mitigates the loss of Karn slightly by being able to redirect one of their Karn or WB triggers. The slot may just be better as a 2nd Dismember, but with all the Burn I'm seeing right now I like it main.
Sideboard: Trying the Tarmogoyfs. Just a pair right now but I like them a lot. It's a super efficient threat against any control deck, the mirror and can put a solid clock on a combo deck. It's an excellent early blocker against Burn, Infect, Hollow One, Bridgevine, Grixis Shadow, etc. With all the cards those decks are dumping into the yard so quickly, it's often a 4/5 or 5/6 and can block Vengevine, Hollow One, Angler and early Shadows. Been very impressed with the card so far.
Beyond that, notably there is no graveyard hate here. I mentioned above I didn't like Relic for the nonbo with Emrakul because you often want them in the same matchups. I could fit a couple Surgicals pretty easily - probably cut 1 TKS and a Dismember, but it honestly doesn't feel that necessary. I'm not seeing much Bridgevine right now and that's the only matchup I'd really want it for.
The other thing this configuration has going for it is it's really good against Burn. I'm boarding in 14 cards - everything but the Dismember. Feels great.
Overall it's been really fun and feels strong.