Thought it was hot garbage a year ago. Thought it was hot garbage last week. Still think it's hot garbage today and will continue to think that even if the winning deck has 4 copies of Vexing Devil in it.
I think that Vexing Devil is worth approximately 2 damage on average, and I'd rather play Shock than something that averages to Shock but has a large standard deviation.
i understand everyone has their own opinion and experience but when i played it, it was always 4 to the dome. i think thats changed with there being bolt, path, and push. not to mention the plethora of other ways to kill it currently so its less likely they just take 4
I think your experience implies you were playing it against a meta that never plays removal, which is extraordinarily atypical, or it's confirmation bias. I've done the math on this against typical amounts of removal from typical decks. The answer is about 2 damage on average for a turn 1 devil, and it goes down from there.
It got played in a pro tour deck that did very well on Day 1. It can't be that much garbage. I have always thought because of it being a punisher card, it did better in less competitive or skilled metagames and worse at higher levels of play, I may have to reevaluate this.
It's a mistake to attribute the success of the deck as a whole to 4 cards. Nothing about this suggests that devil is a good card that should be reevaluated and that everyone else for the last 5 years has been wrong about it. It's still hot garbage and the performance of a single deck doesn't imply that it's not.
At best, this just means that a bunch of people will come to the conclusion that it's fantastic because of a single deck and they'll play it, evaluate it by using confirmation bias, and claim it's the best thing since sliced bread. It'll be Shrine of Burning Rage all over again: hot garbage that people claim isn't hot garbage because "look at that one time it was played and the player won!"
I am not attributing it to only this result, it has been a card in the "maybe" category for burn decks since it was printed and tons of people have played/play it. You can call it garbage all you want but its mediocre at worst. 4 damage for 1 mana is nothing to laugh at. just because the card has a downside doesn't make it unplayable.
So this bolded part is very important.
You WANT to read the card as 1 mana 4 damage. And believe me, if they print a 1 mana 4 damage burn spell, I will play it. We all will.
If it said "YOU" may choose to sacrifice it and deal 4 damage to your opponent--sign me up.
The problem is in the downside. What I want you to always think about--burn is good because of it's consistency and redundancy. High risk/highly variable cards are not what we want. Don't simply mire at the upside. Seriously consider the worst case scenario at all times.
The opponent has a creature out that represents lethal--A goblin Guide off the top blocks for you. If they're at 6 and you have no carads in hand--you don't even get a blocker.
If they have a big ol' board state full of Goyfs, Tireless Tracker, Siege Rhino, etc and you draw this--it may or may not get to be a blocker. But it will probably never deal damage.
If you draw it turn 1 and they don't make you sacrifice it--they have a kill spell.
Goblin Guide/Swift spear will always attack in on the play. Their power multiplies in multiples. Being able to kill off your devil takes away some of that power.
Lavamancer's power is really in creature heavy matchups that lack a lot of spell-based interaction.
Ultimately, you should always heavily weigh the downside of a card. Burn is about consistency/redundancy. You will lose games when you play cards that give that up. Simian Spirit Guide is a good example of this.
The question I have is, with two Lavamancer main, what is the correct number of fetches? Right now I have 10. Any other comments about my list would be appreciated as well.
I'm uncomfortable with the green splash at this time. UW control and Merfolk run spreading seas. Field of Ruin is popping up in a lot of lists. Running a single green for Revelry is risky.
Vexing devil has been a topic for a long time. In general I think any card in the maybe pile is a no at this point unless certain things change. If humans or decks without a lot of removal became a large percentage of the meta then sure devil can be good. But as we know, nothing is a large part of thee meta ado you can't count on little edges like that. Fnm level sure you might find a local meta where devil is awesome but a competitive diverse meta is unlikely
This guy in the article says Shattering Spree is your best card against Burn. I'm sure he's wrong, because everyone else has been saying it's bad, but this means that most Burn players make this mistake, and many more will. This guy has top 8s at GPs, so people will respect his opinion, and add the card to the sideboard in anticipation of affinity lists.
In our matchup section, why is Humans marked as even but Merfolk marked as poor? Merfolk can Spreading Seas us, and they have Dispel, but a combination of Thalia, Guardian of Thraben, Kitesail Freebooter, and Meddling Mage seem to be much more powerful against our deck.
I'm just thinking that the Merfolk matchup should be moved to even, otherwise the Humans should be moved to unfavourable.
Humans has better disruption that's stronger against the field, but doesn't have lords that are as good as Merfolk and that's better for us. It's relatively easy for Merfolk to get out of range of Searing Blood such that you probably shouldn't even play it against them, but Humans doesn't and you Searing effects are still very powerful there. Grim Lavamancer also machineguns Humans but doesn't really work as well against Merfolk.
Kitesail+Meddling Mage can happen, but lots of decks have ideal draws. Gx Tron can wreck you if the stars align, but that doesn't mean that it's an unfavorable matchup. Thalia can be either very bad or a hiccup that eats a Searing Blaze.
I think it's accurate to say that Merfolk is unfavorable (40-60 or so) and that Humans is even.
On the Above: I almost never lose to MonoU Merfolk since switching to Boros. If you splash green for revelry--don't bring it in against fish. You make Spreading seas that much more powerful by having a 3rd color.
Humans--I need some help boys. I pretty much can't beat it. I've got 1 lavamancer main, 2 Searing Blood in the side. I bring in 2 paths on the draw. They always get meddling mage on something I have in hand. Thalia kills me. It's just rough
I typically bring in 2 paths/2 Firewalkers. I've got 2 Searing blood and I've tinkered with the #of blood/blaze post board.
But ultimately, it comes down to the other guy does or doesn't draw his firewalker.
I went 0-3 tonight in the mirror. Always won game 1. Couldn't buy a game 2 or 3. Game 3 of one match, I got my firewalker. Then he got his. Then he got his 2nd. Then he got his path.
One guy was willing to block my swift spear, but I was bluffing and never had the skullcrack.
I realize that Magic in general is a game of variance and Modern often comes down to do you draw your hate or not. But Dang.
For now I'm taking the 2 Firewalkers out and changing them to 1 path and a (4th) skullcrack.
Hello everyone, I am a player that decided to get into modern and have been reading this thread for a few weeks as well as reading some of the articles recommended here and watching youtube streamers (shout out to MrMagicdownunder). I have played some online to get used to playing Burn and also to get a better sense of some of the decks I am likely to face.
Yesterday I went to my LGS for the SCG Modern Night to see if I could hold my own. I ran a pretty basic list:
I ended up going 3-1 which was barely enough to make top 4 and split the prizes.
Rd 1 (2-1 vs. Dredge): Lost game 1 after they got a pretty fast start. Boarded into Rest in Peace and Deflecting Palm. Game 2 he was a little slower but then got a huge turn and was able to create a board with 10 power (I was at 15). On his end turn I put him to 5, drew and say go. He attacked for 10 and then proceeded to cast Conflagrate for 8 and lost to my response with Deflecting Palm. Game 3 he had a slow hand and I burned him.
Rd 2 (1-2 vs. Hollow One): After the top 8 last weekend at Pro Tour Rivals it did not surprise me to see this deck there. He got a Hollow One turn 1 and a Gurmag Angler turn 2, so we were done quickly. My SB plan was the same as what I did against Dredge. Game 2 was pretty quick the other way around, he played Burning Inquiry without great luck and ended losing fast. Game 3 was a nail biter, we were both pretty low on life, I had Deflecting Palm in hand with open mana with him having a Gurmag Angler on board. Sadly, he also had Collective Brutality which ended my hopes.
Rd 3 (2-1 vs. Jeskai Control): I was scared of this matchup, but I was lucky game 1 with my hand and burned him before he could do anything. Game 2 he won pretty handily. Game 3 was a longer closer game, in which having read Patrick Sullivan's Burn vs. Counters was valuable enough to get me to play with patience and wait for the right spot to go for it.
Rd 4 (2-1 vs. Counters Company): Game 1 was insane, since he mulliganed to 4 and still beat me when he drew perfectly and I flooded out! I boarded in my graveyard hate and paths for Boros Charm. Game 2 I drew a hand with 15 burn and after he fetched a couple of times he was pretty much dead since I had Skullcrack for his Kitchen Finks. Game 3 I got him to 3 health and ran out of juice with a Goblin Guide and Monastery Swiftspear on board. He fetched and played Finks to get to 4 and says to me..."hope it is not Boros Charm", which of course could not be since I sided them out. I dealt 3 with another burn spell and put him to 1 with the board locked. After another turn whiffing he decides he has had enough and attacks with all but 1 creature, which really puzzles me. I take the damage, untap, draw a land, declare attackers and he blocks my Guide and the Swiftspear goes through. I looked at him puzzled until I realized he thought he was at 4 health! I pointed out he was dead and when he looks at his pad I notice he had ran out of room in the column and had written the 1 higher than where the 4 was. That was a crazy finish.
At the time I felt bad for him but did not see how to have proceeded any other way. Then I thought maybe offer to go back to the previous turn attacks and allow him to attack with one less creature...but I am not sure what was the best course of action. What would you guys have done? Was I wrong in just taking that win?
Anyway, if you got all the way here, sorry for the long post and thank you all for the wealth of information in this thread. In the future I will try to keep my reports way shorter than this If you have any feedback on the SB choices / plays feel free to offer it. I am eager to learn to play Burn better.
Hello Burning ppl.
After almost a year and a half without the Game, I decided to roll in again, with the brand new Burn Deck. You have not seen me here, because I used to stick with the DnT people last years, but I own Burn now so here I am.
Inspired by the honorable TS, I wantded to make my own expirements about what the best lands count for a Burn deck.
As soon as I have a powerfull SQL server at my disposal, I made 15 millions runs (5 million per a deck type) with random starting hands.
At fisrt I just want to check elconquistador1985 calculations but then I wander. What if we take 20 lands and 41(!) spells? And here is results
And speaking of TotallyUnkeepable I mean both zerolanders and four-plus-landers in total(last one maybe arguable, but there is how I see the Game).
The quick conclusion: it seems that 19 lands is the most correct decision. But if You're feel that You need more - 21+40 seems a bit better than 20+40.
Best wishes Flame Nation, and if You want to see some more statistics play, just let me know.
For 19 lands, what number of fetch lands do you think is correct? I'm going with 10 right now, with six fetchables and 3 Inspiring Vantage. I'm thinking about running this:
Pr(keep) = OneLander*Pr(keep one-lander) + TwoToThree*Pr(keep a two- to three-lander).
You don't have to do this kind of problem using a simulation. Pr(Keep a two- to three-lander) is probably close to 1. A consensus considering one-landers hasn't been met, but I'd guess it's roughly 1/3.
Under these assumptions, the optimal (w.r.t. keep on 7 probability) land count for a 60-62 land deck is 20/60 with Pr(keep)=65.97%.
If your Pr(keep one-lander) > 0.338 and your criterion for optimality is probability for keeping opening 7s, then 19 lands is better.
If you want 6 spells and 3 lands, you should go with 20/60 lands, 7 spells and 3 lands, you should go with 18 lands. Etc. There are a lot of different criteria, and they all point to 17-21 lands, with most point to 19-20. With the number of games most players play, you're unlikely to ever witness the differences between these land counts, though.
At fisrt I just want to check elconquistador1985 calculations but then I wander. What if we take 20 lands and 41(!) spells?
Whoah, I see how you're trying to mess with the odds of getting a certain number of lands in your opener. Most people would say every card above 60 is a card you can draw that isn't one of your best cards. However, I wouldn't be too concerned about that because basically every single card in the Burn deck is the same, so that won't be a concern.
Here's where I start to see some problems:
There are two rules that restrict your card count: you cannot have less than 60 cards in your main deck at any one time, and you cannot have more than 15 cards in your main deck at any one time. That means once you go to 61 cards, you cannot go back unless you cut to 14 sideboard cards. When I said that every single card in the Burn deck basically does the same thing (deal 3+ damage), that's in terms of pre-sideboarded games. Post-board, you're gonna want to draw some of your sideboard tech, and that's where having the smallest deck possible becomes more important. Now. not every single card does the same thing, so your advantage of having lots of redundancy game 1 is lost.
Hello Burning ppl.
After almost a year and a half without the Game, I decided to roll in again, with the brand new Burn Deck. You have not seen me here, because I used to stick with the DnT people last years, but I own Burn now so here I am.
Inspired by the honorable TS, I wantded to make my own expirements about what the best lands count for a Burn deck.
As soon as I have a powerfull SQL server at my disposal, I made 15 millions runs (5 million per a deck type) with random starting hands.
At fisrt I just want to check elconquistador1985 calculations but then I wander. What if we take 20 lands and 41(!) spells? And here is results
And speaking of TotallyUnkeepable I mean both zerolanders and four-plus-landers in total(last one maybe arguable, but there is how I see the Game).
The quick conclusion: it seems that 19 lands is the most correct decision. But if You're feel that You need more - 21+40 seems a bit better than 20+40.
Best wishes Flame Nation, and if You want to see some more statistics play, just let me know.
I think that's a typo and you meant 20-41, right? In any case, this doesn't require a simulation because you just need to use a hypergeometric distribution (I like http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx) to get these probabilities. I was using python to do it because it's a little more complicated to determine the probability of a 1 lander with 4 1CMC cards and generating it randomly is close enough given a large number of samples.
The idea of playing 61 with 20 lands is interesting, but a problem arises because you're changing the consistency of your deck in the process and altering the probability of drawing sideboard cards, for instance. It's a small difference, but so is the difference between 19 and 20. I'd prefer to stay at 60 cards, and that means I'm stuck with a discrete number of lands even though I'd like to have about 19.5 of them.
My gut feeling is that messing with probabilities of drawing other cards isn't something I'm comfortable with doing. You can also never make your sideboard 16 during game 2 or 3, but you can make it 14. I'm glad others are thinking about the math, too. Solid work!
I managed to go 4-0 tonight for the first time (field of 24), so I figured I'd write a quick match report.
After the PT results, I decided to make a bit of a meta call since I expected to see some copycat Humans and Mardu Pyromancer decks at my local store. That hunch paid off tremendously as I played each match-up once.
I decided to just drop green completely. I've literally seen only one Leyline of Sanctity the entire time I've played there (it just so happened to be during my first match ever when I was still playing mono-red -- that was not a fun time), and no one plays any other meaningful enchantment decks like Ad Nauseum or Bogles. There's one UW Control player, but Runed Halo just doesn't seem worth keeping Destructive Revelry around (in post-match discussion, he told me he actually takes Spreading Seas out against me post-board, so I don't even really expect to see that anymore either).
I also decided to try out a 19 land setup tonight to squeeze in that extra Searing Blood in the side board based on my expectation of the meta.
Match 1 - UR Turns (2-1) Game 1 (L): This took me by surprise a bit since I had never seen it before. For those unfamiliar, the deck basically revolves around Time Warp and other similar effects. I got to see the full combo in Game 1 and had a bit of a better idea on what to expect. Boarding: I knew I needed to take out Searing Blaze but didn't really have a good idea what to bring in. He didn't really have many creatures (other that turning his lands into one). Since all of his removal seemed to be red-based, I decided to go all in on creatures and sided in 2 Kor Firewalker and used Skullcrack and a single Path to Exile for the last two spots. Game 2 (W): Firewalker ended up doing some work for me. I started with one in my opening hand and ended up dealing a good 8 damage with it by the end of the game. He got stuck on 3 lands and just couldn't get his combo to go off. Game 3 (W): Finally drew an Eidolon and just snowballed a win from there. He got stuck on four lands again. As per the discussion on Reddit the other day, I managed to land the Eidolon turn two by holding my land drop until second main and swinging with the Guide with only one land up to bait out the Lightning Bolt. Worked like a charm. No other responses to Eidolon made him take too much damage from cantrips and sealed the deal.
Match 2 - Green Tron (2-0) Game 1 (W): I started with a creature heavy hand and managed to just draw straight gas five turns in a row to beat his turn three Karn. The salt was real after that game. Boarding: Out 4 Searing Blaze, 2 Grim Lavamancer, 1 Eidolon; In 1 Skullcrack, 3 Path to Exile, 3 Smash to Smithereens Game 2 (W): I beat turn three Tron again. This time, he landed a Wurmcoil Engine. He was sitting at 19 life and I had no immediate answer to it (Path or Smash) in hand, a Swiftspear and Guide on board, a suspended Rift Bolt, and a Lightning Bolt in hand. During my upkeep, I decided that with him at 19 life, my only possible line to winning was to draw into a way to remove his lifegain because even a single swing/block from the token would put him back to 22. So I sent the Rift Bolt at the Wurm, drew into a Smash, finished the Wurmcoil off with Bolt and used Smash on the lifegain token. Swung in with the 3/4 Monastery and Guide to take out the deathtouch token. I'm actually really curious about my play here, so I'm going to post it in a follow-up post to get some specific thoughts on it. I then drew straight gas again and won, so I was definitely rewarded for the play, but I'm not sure that makes it the most correct one. I'll take luck when I can get it though. On to match 3!
Match 3 - Mardu Pyromancer (2-1) Game 1 (L): I had to mulligan down to four (4 land, 4 land, no land :frown:) and he had a turn one Thoughtseize. I actually managed to still get him down to 5 despite all that; my deck was basically giving me answers all night. Boarding: Out 2 Eidolon, 4 Lava Spike; In 3 Searing Blood, 2 Path to Exile, 1 Rest in Peace Game 2 (W): Started off with a two-lander and two Searing effects in hand, plus some creatures; definite keep. Collective Brutality could only hit one searing effect and having the other in my hand stopped a lot of his ability to get on the board. By the time Bedlam Reveler came online, I was too far ahead and won off some top deck gas. Boarding: Out 2 Eidolon; In 1 Skullcrack, 1 Path to Exile (on the draw, I wanted to have a few more answers to Brutality and Bedlam Reveler). Game 3 (W): Started with almost the identical hand from Game 2 with two searing effects and some creatures. This game ended up a bit closer since he managed to stick a Blood Moon which locked me out of the Boros Charm I drew on my second last turn. We were both down to 2 and I drew a Searing Blaze off the top while still holding onto the fetch land I had been saving for just such an occasion. GG.
Match 4 - Humans (2-0) Game 1 (W): Got in with some early creature damage and won despite him landing a Meddling Mage and three Phantasmal Image copying it (naming Searing Blaze, Lightning Bolt, and Boros Charm). I managed to get a Grim Lavamancer on board with him at 5 life. On his next turn, I blew up the Mage on Bolt, cast one at him on end step and re-used the trigger on him on my turn. Boarding: Out 4 Lava Spike, 2 Eidolon; In 3 Searing Blood, 3 Path to Exile Game 2 (W): Double searing effects in my opening hand and some early creatures. Got out to another fast start and just sort of ran over him (at the end of the game I had three creatures on board and he had none). This ended up being a way easier matchup than I'm used to against Humans. He got a bit unlucky since I didn't see a single Thalia or Aether Vial hit the board in either game.
Conclusions:
2 Grim Lavamancer in the main and going down to 19 lands for the extra Searing Blood was 100% the right call. Having two searing effects in my opening hands post-board against Pyromancer and Humans was incredible and won me all three games. I think I'm going to keep running this deck for a bit and see if the meta at our store shifts a bit. I'm definitely expecting a bit more Burn hate after winning this week since the salt was definitely real (even from spectators in the last couple games, haha).
I decided that 6 lifegain was just going to lose me the game straight up, and my only way to win was to get rid of the Wurmcoil and draw straight gas for the rest of the game. I decided to send the Rift Bolt at the Wurmcoil Engine, drew a Smash to Smithereens off the top, Bolted it to kill it, fetched a mountain and used Smash on the lifegain token. Swinging in with the 3/4 Swiftspear and Guide took out the deathtouch token. I know I got pretty lucky with an answer off the top and was rewarded with straight gas (and my opponent flooding) to win, but I'm curious if that was the right line of play. It seemed like it was a low percentage to win in any case and I got lucky, but I don't want to be blinded by confirmation bias.
I dont advocate the idea of playing 61 cards with 20 lands. As I have said before, I think that 19+41 is the best config.
But speaking about 20+41 I just want to say that its not a taboo, despite many people thinks so.
Usually people talk about 61 card because they want play some pet card: one with the favored art, mighty finisher that extremly fun to resolve, and so on. But its unproffetional.
I think that there is one main difference with the Burn. We dont have any bad pet cards,so we cant make a deck less consistant by taking 5th scullcrank or 5th bolt.
So I tend to consider 61st card as... a virtual sideboard extension. The main restriction here that the card must be kind of universal. A 5th searing effect, a 5th bolt, a 5th crank or a 2nd lavamancer.
And the other point that if You play 20+40 and dont want to pick a specific hate during sideboardong, but just want slightly emphisize some effect you already have in the main, it's seems pretty ok to pick 61st card without siding out at all.
I decided that 6 lifegain was just going to lose me the game straight up, and my only way to win was to get rid of the Wurmcoil and draw straight gas for the rest of the game. I decided to send the Rift Bolt at the Wurmcoil Engine, drew a Smash to Smithereens off the top, Bolted it to kill it, fetched a mountain and used Smash on the lifegain token. Swinging in with the 3/4 Swiftspear and Guide took out the deathtouch token. I know I got pretty lucky with an answer off the top and was rewarded with straight gas (and my opponent flooding) to win, but I'm curious if that was the right line of play. It seemed like it was a low percentage to win in any case and I got lucky, but I don't want to be blinded by confirmation bias.
I think I would try the same approach, as the +6 lifegain seems too much of a liability to overcome even once, let alone multiple times. Each time it would roughly undo two burn spells, so it would seem worthwhile to expend two such spells to get rid of it immediately.
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So this bolded part is very important.
You WANT to read the card as 1 mana 4 damage. And believe me, if they print a 1 mana 4 damage burn spell, I will play it. We all will.
If it said "YOU" may choose to sacrifice it and deal 4 damage to your opponent--sign me up.
The problem is in the downside. What I want you to always think about--burn is good because of it's consistency and redundancy. High risk/highly variable cards are not what we want. Don't simply mire at the upside. Seriously consider the worst case scenario at all times.
The opponent has a creature out that represents lethal--A goblin Guide off the top blocks for you. If they're at 6 and you have no carads in hand--you don't even get a blocker.
If they have a big ol' board state full of Goyfs, Tireless Tracker, Siege Rhino, etc and you draw this--it may or may not get to be a blocker. But it will probably never deal damage.
If you draw it turn 1 and they don't make you sacrifice it--they have a kill spell.
Goblin Guide/Swift spear will always attack in on the play. Their power multiplies in multiples. Being able to kill off your devil takes away some of that power.
Lavamancer's power is really in creature heavy matchups that lack a lot of spell-based interaction.
Ultimately, you should always heavily weigh the downside of a card. Burn is about consistency/redundancy. You will lose games when you play cards that give that up. Simian Spirit Guide is a good example of this.
4x Goblin Guide
4x Monastery Swiftspear
4x Eidolon of the Great Revel
2x Grim Lavamancer
Spells
4x Lightning Bolt
4x Lava Spike
4x Rift Bolt
4x Searing Blaze
3x Skullcrack
4x Bloodstained Mire
4x Wooded Foothills
1x Arid Mesa
1x Scalding Tarn
3x Inspiring Vantage
2x Sacred Foundry
1x Stomping Ground
3x Mountain
1x Skullcrack
4x Destructive Revelry
3x Path to Exile
3x Searing Blood
2x Rest in Peace
2x Deflecting Palm
The question I have is, with two Lavamancer main, what is the correct number of fetches? Right now I have 10. Any other comments about my list would be appreciated as well.
I'm just thinking that the Merfolk matchup should be moved to even, otherwise the Humans should be moved to unfavourable.
Kitesail+Meddling Mage can happen, but lots of decks have ideal draws. Gx Tron can wreck you if the stars align, but that doesn't mean that it's an unfavorable matchup. Thalia can be either very bad or a hiccup that eats a Searing Blaze.
I think it's accurate to say that Merfolk is unfavorable (40-60 or so) and that Humans is even.
Humans--I need some help boys. I pretty much can't beat it. I've got 1 lavamancer main, 2 Searing Blood in the side. I bring in 2 paths on the draw. They always get meddling mage on something I have in hand. Thalia kills me. It's just rough
I typically bring in 2 paths/2 Firewalkers. I've got 2 Searing blood and I've tinkered with the #of blood/blaze post board.
But ultimately, it comes down to the other guy does or doesn't draw his firewalker.
I went 0-3 tonight in the mirror. Always won game 1. Couldn't buy a game 2 or 3. Game 3 of one match, I got my firewalker. Then he got his. Then he got his 2nd. Then he got his path.
One guy was willing to block my swift spear, but I was bluffing and never had the skullcrack.
I realize that Magic in general is a game of variance and Modern often comes down to do you draw your hate or not. But Dang.
For now I'm taking the 2 Firewalkers out and changing them to 1 path and a (4th) skullcrack.
Yesterday I went to my LGS for the SCG Modern Night to see if I could hold my own. I ran a pretty basic list:
4 Arid Mesa
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Wooded Foothills
2 Sacred Foundry
3 Inspiring Vantage
1 Stomping Ground
2 Mountain
Creatures:12
4 Goblin Guide
4 Monastery SwiftSpear
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Lava Spike
4 Rift Bolt
4 Boros Charm
4 Lightning Helix
4 Searing Blaze
4 Skullcrack
2 Grim Lavamancer
2 Path to Exile
2 Kor Firewalker
2 Searing Blood
2 Deflecting Palm
3 Destructive Revelry
2 Rest in Peace
I ended up going 3-1 which was barely enough to make top 4 and split the prizes.
Rd 1 (2-1 vs. Dredge): Lost game 1 after they got a pretty fast start. Boarded into Rest in Peace and Deflecting Palm. Game 2 he was a little slower but then got a huge turn and was able to create a board with 10 power (I was at 15). On his end turn I put him to 5, drew and say go. He attacked for 10 and then proceeded to cast Conflagrate for 8 and lost to my response with Deflecting Palm. Game 3 he had a slow hand and I burned him.
Rd 2 (1-2 vs. Hollow One): After the top 8 last weekend at Pro Tour Rivals it did not surprise me to see this deck there. He got a Hollow One turn 1 and a Gurmag Angler turn 2, so we were done quickly. My SB plan was the same as what I did against Dredge. Game 2 was pretty quick the other way around, he played Burning Inquiry without great luck and ended losing fast. Game 3 was a nail biter, we were both pretty low on life, I had Deflecting Palm in hand with open mana with him having a Gurmag Angler on board. Sadly, he also had Collective Brutality which ended my hopes.
Rd 3 (2-1 vs. Jeskai Control): I was scared of this matchup, but I was lucky game 1 with my hand and burned him before he could do anything. Game 2 he won pretty handily. Game 3 was a longer closer game, in which having read Patrick Sullivan's Burn vs. Counters was valuable enough to get me to play with patience and wait for the right spot to go for it.
Rd 4 (2-1 vs. Counters Company): Game 1 was insane, since he mulliganed to 4 and still beat me when he drew perfectly and I flooded out! I boarded in my graveyard hate and paths for Boros Charm. Game 2 I drew a hand with 15 burn and after he fetched a couple of times he was pretty much dead since I had Skullcrack for his Kitchen Finks. Game 3 I got him to 3 health and ran out of juice with a Goblin Guide and Monastery Swiftspear on board. He fetched and played Finks to get to 4 and says to me..."hope it is not Boros Charm", which of course could not be since I sided them out. I dealt 3 with another burn spell and put him to 1 with the board locked. After another turn whiffing he decides he has had enough and attacks with all but 1 creature, which really puzzles me. I take the damage, untap, draw a land, declare attackers and he blocks my Guide and the Swiftspear goes through. I looked at him puzzled until I realized he thought he was at 4 health! I pointed out he was dead and when he looks at his pad I notice he had ran out of room in the column and had written the 1 higher than where the 4 was. That was a crazy finish.
At the time I felt bad for him but did not see how to have proceeded any other way. Then I thought maybe offer to go back to the previous turn attacks and allow him to attack with one less creature...but I am not sure what was the best course of action. What would you guys have done? Was I wrong in just taking that win?
Anyway, if you got all the way here, sorry for the long post and thank you all for the wealth of information in this thread. In the future I will try to keep my reports way shorter than this If you have any feedback on the SB choices / plays feel free to offer it. I am eager to learn to play Burn better.
After almost a year and a half without the Game, I decided to roll in again, with the brand new Burn Deck. You have not seen me here, because I used to stick with the DnT people last years, but I own Burn now so here I am.
Inspired by the honorable TS, I wantded to make my own expirements about what the best lands count for a Burn deck.
As soon as I have a powerfull SQL server at my disposal, I made 15 millions runs (5 million per a deck type) with random starting hands.
At fisrt I just want to check elconquistador1985 calculations but then I wander. What if we take 20 lands and 41(!) spells? And here is results
For a 19-41-deck
ZeroLands 5,8%
OneLander 22,11%
TwoToThree 58,58%
FourPlus 13,5%
TotalyUnkeepable 19,3%
For a 20-40-deck
ZeroLands 4,82%
OneLander 19,85%
TwoToThree 59,36%
FourPlus 15,98%
TotalyUnkeepable 20,8%
And for a 21-40-deck
ZeroLands 5,15%
OneLander 20,6%
TwoToThree 59,12%
FourPlus 15,12%
TotalyUnkeepable 20,27%
And speaking of TotallyUnkeepable I mean both zerolanders and four-plus-landers in total(last one maybe arguable, but there is how I see the Game).
The quick conclusion: it seems that 19 lands is the most correct decision. But if You're feel that You need more - 21+40 seems a bit better than 20+40.
Best wishes Flame Nation, and if You want to see some more statistics play, just let me know.
DnT! I'm a power-load
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4 Goblin Guide
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
2 Grim Lavamancer
Spells
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Lava Spike
4 Rift Bolt
4 Searing Blaze
3 Skullcrack
4 Boros Charm
4 Lightning Helix
1 Arid Mesa
1 Scalding Tarn
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Wooded Foothills
3 Inspiring Vantage
3 Sacred Foundry
3 Mountain
1 Skullcrack
3 Smash to Smithereens
1 Wear / Tear
3 Path to Exile
2 Deflecting Palm
3 Searing Blood
2 Rest in Peace
But my current RWg deck is constructed by the most expirienced russian burn player, so I kinda believe in his approach.
He says that 10 is the maximum for a 19-lands-deck, but he also has a gut-feeling that 9 is the best number.
So here is my mana base:
2 Mountain
1 Arid Mesa
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Inspiring Vantage
2 Sacred Foundry
2 Stomping Ground
4 Wooded Foothills
DnT! I'm a power-load
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OneLander = (l, 1)*(n-l, 6)/(n, 7)
TwoToThree = (l, 2)*(n-l, 5)/(n, 7) + (l, 3)*(n-l, 4)/(n, 7)
Pr(keep) = OneLander*Pr(keep one-lander) + TwoToThree*Pr(keep a two- to three-lander).
You don't have to do this kind of problem using a simulation. Pr(Keep a two- to three-lander) is probably close to 1. A consensus considering one-landers hasn't been met, but I'd guess it's roughly 1/3.
Under these assumptions, the optimal (w.r.t. keep on 7 probability) land count for a 60-62 land deck is 20/60 with Pr(keep)=65.97%.
If your Pr(keep one-lander) > 0.338 and your criterion for optimality is probability for keeping opening 7s, then 19 lands is better.
If you want 6 spells and 3 lands, you should go with 20/60 lands, 7 spells and 3 lands, you should go with 18 lands. Etc. There are a lot of different criteria, and they all point to 17-21 lands, with most point to 19-20. With the number of games most players play, you're unlikely to ever witness the differences between these land counts, though.
Whoah, I see how you're trying to mess with the odds of getting a certain number of lands in your opener. Most people would say every card above 60 is a card you can draw that isn't one of your best cards. However, I wouldn't be too concerned about that because basically every single card in the Burn deck is the same, so that won't be a concern.
Here's where I start to see some problems:
There are two rules that restrict your card count: you cannot have less than 60 cards in your main deck at any one time, and you cannot have more than 15 cards in your main deck at any one time. That means once you go to 61 cards, you cannot go back unless you cut to 14 sideboard cards. When I said that every single card in the Burn deck basically does the same thing (deal 3+ damage), that's in terms of pre-sideboarded games. Post-board, you're gonna want to draw some of your sideboard tech, and that's where having the smallest deck possible becomes more important. Now. not every single card does the same thing, so your advantage of having lots of redundancy game 1 is lost.
I think that's a typo and you meant 20-41, right? In any case, this doesn't require a simulation because you just need to use a hypergeometric distribution (I like http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx) to get these probabilities. I was using python to do it because it's a little more complicated to determine the probability of a 1 lander with 4 1CMC cards and generating it randomly is close enough given a large number of samples.
The idea of playing 61 with 20 lands is interesting, but a problem arises because you're changing the consistency of your deck in the process and altering the probability of drawing sideboard cards, for instance. It's a small difference, but so is the difference between 19 and 20. I'd prefer to stay at 60 cards, and that means I'm stuck with a discrete number of lands even though I'd like to have about 19.5 of them.
My gut feeling is that messing with probabilities of drawing other cards isn't something I'm comfortable with doing. You can also never make your sideboard 16 during game 2 or 3, but you can make it 14. I'm glad others are thinking about the math, too. Solid work!
After the PT results, I decided to make a bit of a meta call since I expected to see some copycat Humans and Mardu Pyromancer decks at my local store. That hunch paid off tremendously as I played each match-up once.
4 Goblin Guide
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
2 Grim Lavamancer
Spells
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Lava Spike
4 Rift Bolt
4 Searing Blaze
3 Skullcrack
4 Boros Charm
4 Lightning Helix
4 Bloodstained Mire
3 Wooded Foothills
2 Arid Mesa
1 Scalding Tarn
4 Inspiring Vantage
2 Sacred Foundry
3 Mountain
1 Skullcrack
3 Smash to Smithereens
1 Shattering Spree
3 Path to Exile
2 Kor Firewalker
3 Searing Blood
2 Rest in Peace
I decided to just drop green completely. I've literally seen only one Leyline of Sanctity the entire time I've played there (it just so happened to be during my first match ever when I was still playing mono-red -- that was not a fun time), and no one plays any other meaningful enchantment decks like Ad Nauseum or Bogles. There's one UW Control player, but Runed Halo just doesn't seem worth keeping Destructive Revelry around (in post-match discussion, he told me he actually takes Spreading Seas out against me post-board, so I don't even really expect to see that anymore either).
I also decided to try out a 19 land setup tonight to squeeze in that extra Searing Blood in the side board based on my expectation of the meta.
Match 1 - UR Turns (2-1)
Game 1 (L): This took me by surprise a bit since I had never seen it before. For those unfamiliar, the deck basically revolves around Time Warp and other similar effects. I got to see the full combo in Game 1 and had a bit of a better idea on what to expect.
Boarding: I knew I needed to take out Searing Blaze but didn't really have a good idea what to bring in. He didn't really have many creatures (other that turning his lands into one). Since all of his removal seemed to be red-based, I decided to go all in on creatures and sided in 2 Kor Firewalker and used Skullcrack and a single Path to Exile for the last two spots.
Game 2 (W): Firewalker ended up doing some work for me. I started with one in my opening hand and ended up dealing a good 8 damage with it by the end of the game. He got stuck on 3 lands and just couldn't get his combo to go off.
Game 3 (W): Finally drew an Eidolon and just snowballed a win from there. He got stuck on four lands again. As per the discussion on Reddit the other day, I managed to land the Eidolon turn two by holding my land drop until second main and swinging with the Guide with only one land up to bait out the Lightning Bolt. Worked like a charm. No other responses to Eidolon made him take too much damage from cantrips and sealed the deal.
Match 2 - Green Tron (2-0)
Game 1 (W): I started with a creature heavy hand and managed to just draw straight gas five turns in a row to beat his turn three Karn. The salt was real after that game.
Boarding: Out 4 Searing Blaze, 2 Grim Lavamancer, 1 Eidolon; In 1 Skullcrack, 3 Path to Exile, 3 Smash to Smithereens
Game 2 (W): I beat turn three Tron again. This time, he landed a Wurmcoil Engine. He was sitting at 19 life and I had no immediate answer to it (Path or Smash) in hand, a Swiftspear and Guide on board, a suspended Rift Bolt, and a Lightning Bolt in hand. During my upkeep, I decided that with him at 19 life, my only possible line to winning was to draw into a way to remove his lifegain because even a single swing/block from the token would put him back to 22. So I sent the Rift Bolt at the Wurm, drew into a Smash, finished the Wurmcoil off with Bolt and used Smash on the lifegain token. Swung in with the 3/4 Monastery and Guide to take out the deathtouch token. I'm actually really curious about my play here, so I'm going to post it in a follow-up post to get some specific thoughts on it. I then drew straight gas again and won, so I was definitely rewarded for the play, but I'm not sure that makes it the most correct one. I'll take luck when I can get it though. On to match 3!
Match 3 - Mardu Pyromancer (2-1)
Game 1 (L): I had to mulligan down to four (4 land, 4 land, no land :frown:) and he had a turn one Thoughtseize. I actually managed to still get him down to 5 despite all that; my deck was basically giving me answers all night.
Boarding: Out 2 Eidolon, 4 Lava Spike; In 3 Searing Blood, 2 Path to Exile, 1 Rest in Peace
Game 2 (W): Started off with a two-lander and two Searing effects in hand, plus some creatures; definite keep. Collective Brutality could only hit one searing effect and having the other in my hand stopped a lot of his ability to get on the board. By the time Bedlam Reveler came online, I was too far ahead and won off some top deck gas.
Boarding: Out 2 Eidolon; In 1 Skullcrack, 1 Path to Exile (on the draw, I wanted to have a few more answers to Brutality and Bedlam Reveler).
Game 3 (W): Started with almost the identical hand from Game 2 with two searing effects and some creatures. This game ended up a bit closer since he managed to stick a Blood Moon which locked me out of the Boros Charm I drew on my second last turn. We were both down to 2 and I drew a Searing Blaze off the top while still holding onto the fetch land I had been saving for just such an occasion. GG.
Match 4 - Humans (2-0)
Game 1 (W): Got in with some early creature damage and won despite him landing a Meddling Mage and three Phantasmal Image copying it (naming Searing Blaze, Lightning Bolt, and Boros Charm). I managed to get a Grim Lavamancer on board with him at 5 life. On his next turn, I blew up the Mage on Bolt, cast one at him on end step and re-used the trigger on him on my turn.
Boarding: Out 4 Lava Spike, 2 Eidolon; In 3 Searing Blood, 3 Path to Exile
Game 2 (W): Double searing effects in my opening hand and some early creatures. Got out to another fast start and just sort of ran over him (at the end of the game I had three creatures on board and he had none). This ended up being a way easier matchup than I'm used to against Humans. He got a bit unlucky since I didn't see a single Thalia or Aether Vial hit the board in either game.
Conclusions:
2 Grim Lavamancer in the main and going down to 19 lands for the extra Searing Blood was 100% the right call. Having two searing effects in my opening hands post-board against Pyromancer and Humans was incredible and won me all three games. I think I'm going to keep running this deck for a bit and see if the meta at our store shifts a bit. I'm definitely expecting a bit more Burn hate after winning this week since the salt was definitely real (even from spectators in the last couple games, haha).
Opponent (Green Tron):
19 life
Turn 3 tron assembled
All mana tapped
Wurmcoil Engine in play
Me:
Monastery Swiftspear, Goblin Guide on board
Rift Bolt suspended
Mountain and Inspiring Vantage in play
In hand: Lightning Bolt, Boros Charm, 2 Fetch lands
In deck: 3 Path to Exile, 3 Smash to Smithereens
What do you do?
I decided that 6 lifegain was just going to lose me the game straight up, and my only way to win was to get rid of the Wurmcoil and draw straight gas for the rest of the game. I decided to send the Rift Bolt at the Wurmcoil Engine, drew a Smash to Smithereens off the top, Bolted it to kill it, fetched a mountain and used Smash on the lifegain token. Swinging in with the 3/4 Swiftspear and Guide took out the deathtouch token. I know I got pretty lucky with an answer off the top and was rewarded with straight gas (and my opponent flooding) to win, but I'm curious if that was the right line of play. It seemed like it was a low percentage to win in any case and I got lucky, but I don't want to be blinded by confirmation bias.
But speaking about 20+41 I just want to say that its not a taboo, despite many people thinks so.
Usually people talk about 61 card because they want play some pet card: one with the favored art, mighty finisher that extremly fun to resolve, and so on. But its unproffetional.
I think that there is one main difference with the Burn. We dont have any bad pet cards,so we cant make a deck less consistant by taking 5th scullcrank or 5th bolt.
So I tend to consider 61st card as... a virtual sideboard extension. The main restriction here that the card must be kind of universal. A 5th searing effect, a 5th bolt, a 5th crank or a 2nd lavamancer.
And the other point that if You play 20+40 and dont want to pick a specific hate during sideboardong, but just want slightly emphisize some effect you already have in the main, it's seems pretty ok to pick 61st card without siding out at all.
DnT! I'm a power-load
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