With draw 2, your outcomes are 1/9 to draw 0 spells, 4/9 to draw 1 spell, and 4/9 to draw 2 spells. LutS draws 1.33 Burn spells on average, but with some variance. It's worth 2 only 44% of the time. When you draw 1, you're basically adding a tax of R to that spell and that happens 44% of the time. That's too high for my liking.
The whole argument is quite sound, but I disagree with the conclusion a bit. 1.33 Burn = 4 damage, which is exactly the same rate as Boros Charm. At 2 mana for 4 damage, both LUTS and Boros Charm are very comparable.
Pros:
Doesn't require white
Draws you 1-2 lands when it's worse than Boros Charm (which are often not completely useless)
Combo with Swiftspear
Cons:
Requires Spectacle
Nonbo with Eidolon and Rift Bolt
Pressures you to play more 1 mana cards
No Indestructible mode
Added variance (it is really a con, or is it neutral?)
In the end, Boros Charm looks like the safe choice, but I'm not entirely convinced. Lots of these are hard to evaluate.
While I'm not totally convinced LUTS is bad, and I commend this argument, I do feel the need to point out that a big difference between LUTS and Boros Charm is time. Guaranteed 4 damage now and an average of 4 damage, but somewhere from 0-6 (likely 3-6) next turn can be a reason to separate the two.
Rix Madi isn't something I feel we want. If you're doing spectacle, he's slow as can be to draw 3 cards. lutS would be better imo. confidant is too much pain in my book as well and I'm not a huge fan of bite. The only black cards we want tbh are rakdos charm in SB and bump in the main. Maybe Gontis M. but it's dependent on use loving life on n 2 separate turns which isn't that hard. Bite is ok but I think we could get away with just "bolts" and searing blaze with the usual 12-14 creatures and 18-20 lands
How can you compare the two? That's Ludacris. One is 4 dmg every time. The other is draw 2 and 2/3 of the outcomes makes this card worse than charm the third option means you deal 6 damage but you pay one for spectacle and then two more for the bolts. If you draw boros charm and something and have the Mana to play both then you still end up paying way too much Mana compared to just playing boros charm in the first place and nine times out of 10 if you're casting stage you're probably at the point in the game where your hand is empty which means your opponent should be within one bolt range of being dead and instead you drew a card that gives them an extra turn to do something so that you can draw two cards that you might get value out of or just blank. I'd rather take the hundred percent chance of dealing for damage over the 33 and a third percent chance that I'll deal more damage than charm for more Mana
Hey everyone. I've been jamming a few testing sessions with my playgroup and running against the gauntlet. Sadly I didn't think to track data so this is all memory and feeling but... I tried running 4 x Skewer the Critics and removed the same number of Lightning Helix from my main. Only 4 x Boros Charm was my white splash. I always triggered Skewer spectacle (usually through creature damage, eidolon, rift bolt, and lavamancer) and generally found the results to be more explosive in finishing the game more consistently on turn 4 compared to running Helix. I still ran 3 x Skullcrack in the main and found this very useful when testing game 1 vs Tron, Rock, Abzan, Griselbrand/Through the Breach (I realize this isn't big in the meta but mentioning nonetheless), and the Burn mirror. The only match I found I really missed Helix was vs Infect - not for life gain but for not having hoops to trigger spectacle when I needed to target a creature now. Obviously your meta will dictate which cards could/should be removed in place of skewer and my comments could always come back to bite me in future games where I want Helix, but I can honestly say I didn't mind dropping the card.
Elcon - I also wanted to give props for the math/draw post a couple pages back. That was really insightful to read so thanks very much for that.
Hey elcon, can you use your fancy math skills to explain why Needle Drop is bad in burn?
If you assume 2/3 of the deck is live, then Needle Drop is 1 damage plus 2/3 of a spell (which deals under 3 damage on average, since some are creatures). If you assume creatures are dead draws, then Needle Drop is 1 damage plus 1/2 of a spell (which deals 3 on average). Best case scenario, it makes a Bolt into a Boros Charm 1/2 to 2/3 of the time but it costs 2 cards (not a good outcome). Worst case scenario, it does nothing because you can't cast it (this is why it's really bad).
I think I've said that I'd consider Needle Drop without the casting restriction, but I believe I was being a little too agressive with that. I would play a Shock with draw 1 or pseudo-draw 1 attached to it. I think dealing 1 is too weak.
LUtS is close to playable but I would say Magma Jet is better and it sees no play.
I think MJ could see play if it simply added draw a card after the Scry 2. Curious if anyone agrees with me on that?
Risk Factor is better than LUtS in most cases, but it is still not good enough to play in Modern Burn (though it does see play elsewhere)
Conditional spells such have a potential to be clunky and the more spells you add the exponentially more clunky the cards/deck becomes.
I am glad people are testing the waters with new cards as it helps the community as a whole.
I play Risk factor and the card is busted for burn in my opinion but not popular due to decks that could kill you very fast (now Ironworks is gone, small buff to RF) so people justify this card not good when you can't cast twice times this, which I find not correct.
I think it is the difference of playstyle. I love this spell. Risk factor is way better than Shrine of burning rage that saw plays in a more controling playstyle.
Light up the stage is more a build oriented card I think because it becomes fantastic with a very low curve, so it's for an another playstyle. It's not a card for Boros, but for MR and Rakdos while waiting for a better card like Needle drop 2.0 or Magma jet 2.0.
For those about talking about splashing, I have learnt several things:
- Mono-red for the 60 cards is real and very strong. You get the best manabase. Take in consideration that life matter a lot, so being able to avoid playing a shockland matters, especially against agressive decks.
- Ryan Ferries' strategy is excellent. He played a 60s MR but with 10 fetchlands. Then in the sideboard he played the shockland plus non-red cards. That means that he can avoid taking extra damages and catch people off-guard because of his Path to exile/Revelry/Rakdos charm/RiP/etc
- A little hypergoemetric calculs to say that at playing 8 fetchlands + 1 shockland, it represents 70% chances to have the second color in your opening hands. If you play 9 fetchlands, it becomes 74%. It you play 10 fetchlands like Ryan, it becomes 77%. That's acceptable numbers I think.
- If you play Boros then you assume to take some self-damages from your lands, at less 2 from your shocklands so it's why the four Lightning helix are strong here when you can cast several helixes.
(edited, sorry)
After years of forcing blue decks, I am going back to my dark side roots and joining the Burn brigade (at least until I build back up all the store credit I lost!). Other than jamming in 3x Skewer the Critics, ditching Atarka's Command and adding Inspiring Vantage, it seems not much has changed since the last time I played Burn in early 2015. This is the list I have sleeved up for tomorrow's FNM. Will be checking in here for updates, but even the last few pages have very helpful in getting back into the swing of things! I guess this is also partially motivated by grinding up to Platinum in Arena using mono red and BR aggro builds. Best part is I have enough redundancy to have Burn fully built alongside GDS/UR Phoenix, so I can have it and either of those ready to go at any time, without needing to pull apart and resleeve. Cheers!
That's way too many Grim Lavamancers. You don't want to draw too many of them, because they'll just empty your graveyard and be 1/1s. I like 2. I am also not a fan of Vexing Devil, and I'm wondering why you're playing it over Monastery Swiftspear. Swift is phenomenal in Burn. You may have issues with Blaze without fetches, but Blaze is still good. You should hold a land in hand when you can, just for landfall.
As far as the sideboard, I think you're way too heavy on lifegain hate and you can just get by on the Skullcracks in the main. I also don't like board wipes in Burn, since the 3 mana ones often feel like they're too little too late and the 2 mana ones feel like they're too little all the time. You're better off with a couple Searing Blood. You're also missing graveyard hate entirely, and I'd suggest a couple Relic of Progenitus.
Okay, the last time I played Burn it was still Dega but I have recently gotten the urge to try it again, perhaps in Rakdos this time. I have always loved Bump, so it will be there for sure.
While this is certainly going to be derided and probably justifiably, I really want to play Vexing Devil along with Claim // Fame. It's just for FNM fun so please don't be too harsh.
I've seen the odd mention of Exquisite Firecraft, but it doesn't seem popular. It looks to me as if it would be a fine side-board card. There's a young man who plays UW Control at our shop that really needs to be beaten severely.
What other good ideas are there for that match-up?
I play RiP because once it resolves, it's the strongest grave hate around. But if your meta is full of stuff that needs a first turn answer, Surgical has no replacement. But if your meta is not SCREAMING fast, unless you cut white, RiP is the best grave hate in the entire game.
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That was a question I should have thought about a moment. Without disruption - discard or land destruction, etc, Surgical is pretty useless. Faerie Macabre is better grave-hate.
Not good against Amulet, but Burn eats Storm for breakfast. Titanshift is an ok matchup, I think. It was terrible for me when I was playing Naya, but it's a lot better when you're straight RW.
Not good against Amulet, but Burn eats Storm for breakfast. Titanshift is an ok matchup, I think. It was terrible for me when I was playing Naya, but it's a lot better when you're straight RW.
Thanks for your patience. I think the best answer might have been "read the primer!"
While I'm not totally convinced LUTS is bad, and I commend this argument, I do feel the need to point out that a big difference between LUTS and Boros Charm is time. Guaranteed 4 damage now and an average of 4 damage, but somewhere from 0-6 (likely 3-6) next turn can be a reason to separate the two.
Elcon - I also wanted to give props for the math/draw post a couple pages back. That was really insightful to read so thanks very much for that.
If you assume 2/3 of the deck is live, then Needle Drop is 1 damage plus 2/3 of a spell (which deals under 3 damage on average, since some are creatures). If you assume creatures are dead draws, then Needle Drop is 1 damage plus 1/2 of a spell (which deals 3 on average). Best case scenario, it makes a Bolt into a Boros Charm 1/2 to 2/3 of the time but it costs 2 cards (not a good outcome). Worst case scenario, it does nothing because you can't cast it (this is why it's really bad).
I think I've said that I'd consider Needle Drop without the casting restriction, but I believe I was being a little too agressive with that. I would play a Shock with draw 1 or pseudo-draw 1 attached to it. I think dealing 1 is too weak.
I think MJ could see play if it simply added draw a card after the Scry 2. Curious if anyone agrees with me on that?
Risk Factor is better than LUtS in most cases, but it is still not good enough to play in Modern Burn (though it does see play elsewhere)
Conditional spells such have a potential to be clunky and the more spells you add the exponentially more clunky the cards/deck becomes.
I am glad people are testing the waters with new cards as it helps the community as a whole.
I think it is the difference of playstyle. I love this spell. Risk factor is way better than Shrine of burning rage that saw plays in a more controling playstyle.
Light up the stage is more a build oriented card I think because it becomes fantastic with a very low curve, so it's for an another playstyle. It's not a card for Boros, but for MR and Rakdos while waiting for a better card like Needle drop 2.0 or Magma jet 2.0.
For those about talking about splashing, I have learnt several things:
- Mono-red for the 60 cards is real and very strong. You get the best manabase. Take in consideration that life matter a lot, so being able to avoid playing a shockland matters, especially against agressive decks.
- Ryan Ferries' strategy is excellent. He played a 60s MR but with 10 fetchlands. Then in the sideboard he played the shockland plus non-red cards. That means that he can avoid taking extra damages and catch people off-guard because of his Path to exile/Revelry/Rakdos charm/RiP/etc
- A little hypergoemetric calculs to say that at playing 8 fetchlands + 1 shockland, it represents 70% chances to have the second color in your opening hands. If you play 9 fetchlands, it becomes 74%. It you play 10 fetchlands like Ryan, it becomes 77%. That's acceptable numbers I think.
- If you play Boros then you assume to take some self-damages from your lands, at less 2 from your shocklands so it's why the four Lightning helix are strong here when you can cast several helixes.
(edited, sorry)
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
// 12 Creature
4 Goblin Guide
4 Vexing Devil
4 Grim Lavamancer
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Searing Blaze
4 Skullcrack
20 Mountain
// 16 Sorcery
4 Light Up the Stage
4 Lava Spike
4 Rift Bolt
4 Skewer the Critics
// 4 Creature
4 Rampaging Ferocidon
// 2 Enchantment
2 Blood Moon
4 Smash to Smithereens
// 5 Sorcery
1 Anger of the Gods
4 Pyroclasm
That's way too many Grim Lavamancers. You don't want to draw too many of them, because they'll just empty your graveyard and be 1/1s. I like 2. I am also not a fan of Vexing Devil, and I'm wondering why you're playing it over Monastery Swiftspear. Swift is phenomenal in Burn. You may have issues with Blaze without fetches, but Blaze is still good. You should hold a land in hand when you can, just for landfall.
As far as the sideboard, I think you're way too heavy on lifegain hate and you can just get by on the Skullcracks in the main. I also don't like board wipes in Burn, since the 3 mana ones often feel like they're too little too late and the 2 mana ones feel like they're too little all the time. You're better off with a couple Searing Blood. You're also missing graveyard hate entirely, and I'd suggest a couple Relic of Progenitus.
While this is certainly going to be derided and probably justifiably, I really want to play Vexing Devil along with Claim // Fame. It's just for FNM fun so please don't be too harsh.
I've seen the odd mention of Exquisite Firecraft, but it doesn't seem popular. It looks to me as if it would be a fine side-board card. There's a young man who plays UW Control at our shop that really needs to be beaten severely.
What other good ideas are there for that match-up?
Frenzy-Affinity-Ghost Quarter-Rock-Tokens- RGWPhyrexian Zoo- WVial KnightsStandard:
BW Knights(Rotated)Pioneer: RW Knights - BW Rally Zombies - UW Heroes
Commander:WUG
Jenara, Asura of War- WGSigarda, Host of HeronsCasualties of economicsLegacy: Good-night, sweet prince. Mono-R Burn
As far as how to play against control, read this: http://www.starcitygames.com/article/27944_Burn-vs-Counters.html
Frenzy-Affinity-Ghost Quarter-Rock-Tokens- RGWPhyrexian Zoo- WVial KnightsStandard:
BW Knights(Rotated)Pioneer: RW Knights - BW Rally Zombies - UW Heroes
Commander:WUG
Jenara, Asura of War- WGSigarda, Host of HeronsCasualties of economicsLegacy: Good-night, sweet prince. Mono-R Burn
With Burn, I think you'd rather nuke the whole graveyard than one shot a single card(and the other copies of it).
How well does Burn typically do against combo?
Frenzy-Affinity-Ghost Quarter-Rock-Tokens- RGWPhyrexian Zoo- WVial KnightsStandard:
BW Knights(Rotated)Pioneer: RW Knights - BW Rally Zombies - UW Heroes
Commander:WUG
Jenara, Asura of War- WGSigarda, Host of HeronsCasualties of economicsLegacy: Good-night, sweet prince. Mono-R Burn
Frenzy-Affinity-Ghost Quarter-Rock-Tokens- RGWPhyrexian Zoo- WVial KnightsStandard:
BW Knights(Rotated)Pioneer: RW Knights - BW Rally Zombies - UW Heroes
Commander:WUG
Jenara, Asura of War- WGSigarda, Host of HeronsCasualties of economicsLegacy: Good-night, sweet prince. Mono-R Burn