I run 21 where two are Treetop Villages, but mathematically only 20 land is needed to normally hit your 3rd land drop on turn 3. This makes me think I should should board out a land for games when I'm on the draw.
What's that math's definition of 'normally'? > 50% ?
The tables I've seen have a 64% chance of hitting a third land drop on T3 on a 20-land deck. Is that some magically acceptable number? Where more than a third of the time, you won't hit it?
What's that math's definition of 'normally'? > 50% ?
The tables I've seen have a 64% chance of hitting a third land drop on T3 on a 20-land deck. Is that some magically acceptable number? Where more than a third of the time, you won't hit it?
Where can I find tables like these? I'm very interested in the maths.
edit: Found something.. If that table is correct, and I assume it is, it actually makes me questions why we run so few lands...22 seems like the optimal number, and really the bare minimum if our sideboard has 4 drops.
Running 22 as default would also allow us to take out a land if we don't sideboard in any 4 drops at all, and while that means running one card less somewhere else...lets face it, no one is running lands in their sideboards. Its better to have the land you need for 4 drops with the ability to have an extra slot for sideboarding if you don't use them, than it is to draw your 4 drop and be mana screwed.
What's that math's definition of 'normally'? > 50% ?
My use of "normally" just means the most likely result. Drawing 9 cards (3 turns), 3 out of 9 is 33% and 33% of 60 = 20.
Without resorting to complex probability calculations, this is gives a pretty good idea of what to expect.
According to the tables mistahARK linked, the percentage for hitting a 3rd land drop on turn three is 82.3% on the play and 88.6% on the draw with 21 land.
So, if 82.3% is optimal when on the play, you could actually board out 2 lands down to 19 for 83.8% on the draw. This basically confirms my suspicion that it is probably best to board out a single land every time I know for sure I'm on the draw.
As far as running 22 land, most Stompy decks shy away from any 4-drops. My deck tops out with five 3-drops.
The table I was looking at was http://mtg.dawnglare.com/?p=lands ... which I believe on default settings is the simple on-the-play-no-mulligans math. Karsten's tables seem to account for mulligans, and clearly have both play and draw numbers.
If I read it correctly, it says that it can't be blocked by creatures with power 2 or less. Either way, it sounds like a great card!
Also, are we allowed to/should we talk about leaked cards?
Steel Leaf Champion
GGG
Creature – Elf Knight
5/4
Steel Leaf Champion can’t be blocked by creatures with power 2 or less.
This is gigantic for us. 3 devotion for Aspect, trades with Gurmag Angler and can't be chumped. I'm down to like 2 Leatherback Baloths in my main but this may be a 4-of. Amazing card.
Also, I will write a tournament report for a tournament from two weeks ago(!) and in it you can see how easy it was to slam Ghalta, Primal Hunger when the meta is so open for it.
Cult of the Succubi Eating Kitten and Brotherhood of Hamsters - Zombie One/Hulking One - Brotherhood of Hamsters disapproves of Damage on the Stack amputation, the corruption of Mythics, and the "Major changes to Extended" in July 2010. You aborted our cards., but we approve of the Modern format. Even if it doesn't ha ve Carrion Feeder or Caller of the Claw in it.
Dex: http://deckbox.org/users/Egementium_instructoid
Way too three drop heavy even with mana dorks. Also you need to hit a minimum 22 lands, and if you keep high end plays 23 would be better. Ghalta should only be run at 1 cause while he will win if he sticks he's definetly the win more variety of card and getting both in one hand would suck. 20 lands and tireless tracker don't work even with fetches and you wont be in a position to pop the clues when you need/want to since most of the time your mana will be tapped down from regular plays regardless. Cramming in coco like your trying might help, but coco really hates didlly creatures like dorks and hitting 4 mana would be hard to do with the setup.
So on February 24th,2018, just affter the unbanning of Jace, The Mind Sculptor and Bloodbraid Elf, our local shop owner and TO decided to run a limitless proxy modern tournament to see (I'm guessing) what the meta would be like. When I heard that, as usual I left the shade of my rock, grabbed my deck, and after a few changes to sb and adding in Ghalta, Primal Hunger that I had bought earlier, I decided to join. My main aim was slamming Ghalta onto the board as often as possible but I had doubts about how many times that would be since I thought I would run into Grixis, Tron, and other unfavorable matchups. Our TO and I made a deal as he also approves of Timmy decks to a degree and awards fun interactions: If I can slam Ghalta in all four matches on the battlefield, he will give me an extra prize for that achievement. This was how it went:
Decklist:
Match 1: Janky Tainted Remedy deck with condemn, heroes' reunion, wall of shards, fiery justice and other crazy cards that tried to give me life. 2-1
Game1: I gain some life, lose some life, slam my creatures against the wall of shards a turn or two but win thanks to a timely dismember.
Game2: I side in enchantment hate but see none, I beat some face. The remedy, the wall, and reunion get me to 8. I slam a Ghalta and attack but die to a Condemn
Game3: I keep a Natural State + Deglamer and remove 2 remedies, trample over the wall and win.
Match 2: Mono Blue Merfolk piloted by a promising but inexperienced player. 2-1
Game1: No spreading seas or sea's claim, he hesitates to attack with his 3 lords + cursecatcher, while I also wait for a profitable attack with Strootgeist, 4/4 E1, 4/3 avatar, and a dryad. Then comes Ghalta and we have a combat where most of his team dies. The next turn the 12/12 power pulls a concede from him.
Game2: He has a fast one while I mull to 6: he has aether vial and CA. His side card that taps green dudes arrive. I lose to 4/4 lords. I had sided in chokes but decide to side them out in favor of thrun and natural states.
Game3: We both mull to 5. I keep a Militant, E1, rancorx2 forest hand. He plays island vial. If he had sea's claim I would have lost. I take the turn and attack with the 2/2 E1. Turn 3 he plays a 2 mana merdude. On my turn I slam the rancors on both he does not block and goes down to 10. The other turn he cant find a dude and concedes when I play the baloth (I drew 2 forests). He later tells me he had 4x spreading seas and 4x sea's claim but did not draw any. I exclaim "phew" as that was a narrow escape.
Match 3: Red deck wins with white splash. 2-0
Game1: He plays a 2x monastery Swiftspears, rides the dmg. train till I'm 11 on T3 or so. I also keep attacking with my E1 and Strootguy. Then drop a Dungrove on my T3, a scooze and then another after combat trades. And then he learns who the aggro is.
Game2: Both of us mull to 5 or 6. I keep a 1 forest hand with E1, Avatar, 2xScooze. I see a forest on scry and barely keep my relief in. He is on the go and starts with a Goblin Guide giving me that forest. So far so good. I play E1 and pass. He attacks revealing a Ghalta. We laugh and I don't block. He then searing blazes E1, pass the turn. I draw another land play the avatar and pass. He attacks no blocks and he lightning bolts it. I show no signs of despair and let the fear of Ghalta settle in. I draw 3 more lands, a rancor and a baloth. When the game ended I had a baloth with a rancor on it, 6 lands and a Ghalta in play. He draws his card and scoops. I show him the Feed the clan and he calls BS
I see no path to exiles, or runed halos which he shows were sided in.
Match 4: Nahiri Control piloted by one of my best magic magic buddies with whom we often playtest. This is a 35/65 on his favor.
Game1: I fast aggro him, he has no answers. Ghalta comes in and draws a concede.
Game2: I play choke with Nahiri, the Harbinger on board. I forget that she exiles ench. because I get cocky after G1. 1 cryptic command and two board wipes later, I m looking at Celestial Colonnade chewing on my hps.
Game3: Goes to time as we both had to keep subpar hands and militants+scooze destroy his snappies but dungrove gets countered. He survives my last feeble attacks after pathing the 4/4 scooze and boardwiping some others.
no top 8 as there were only 13 players and we want to do a mixed draft of MM, Eternal, Iconic afterwards. So Ghalta is doable and a star in aggro to aggro matches which are not affinity and which do not attack your CA.
At the end, I win first place (3-3-3-1), 2+1 showdown boosters (+1 bonus for playing a no-proxy deck) and a full art promo Ghalta because I managed to slam it into the board in all 4 matches!!!
Our deck is still kicking now with 12-monstrous-dino-power! Fun times...
P.S: With the inclusion of the new elf, it will be much easier to pull off victories and early Ghaltas as 5 power means a faster clock than Baloth and a lot more rancor friendly (can't be blocked by small dudes, can trample over and kill big dudes, because math!). I am thinking of replacing all baloths with the Steel Leaf Champion as one hidden advantage is that when we dismember a big dude like a 6/6 or a 7/7, even if it does not die this guy will go in for the damage.
Cult of the Succubi Eating Kitten and Brotherhood of Hamsters - Zombie One/Hulking One - Brotherhood of Hamsters disapproves of Damage on the Stack amputation, the corruption of Mythics, and the "Major changes to Extended" in July 2010. You aborted our cards., but we approve of the Modern format. Even if it doesn't ha ve Carrion Feeder or Caller of the Claw in it.
Dex: http://deckbox.org/users/Egementium_instructoid
Yeah, and even comes with a useful ability. WoTC has finally give our deck something good again.
Cannot be blocked by Snapcaster, goblin guide, lingering souls, Dark confidant. mana dorks, by most other elves, even an Etched Champion can't block it.
______________
Nice report Culthero. Looks like Ghalta can be useful after all.
Thank you. From my experience most aggro have a hard time dealing with Ghalta and most decks which do not run white have a hard time dealing with it (condemn, path to exile, despatch, deflecting palm, etc.). Also, the fear of getting trampled over by a 12/12 pre-historic monstrosity is, I think, one of the worst nightmares a control player might have, so advertising that you have one in your 75 (or 60 in my case) is an advantage. I know people say that it is a win more card, and I agree with them. However, the it also has the win-on-the-spot effect against certain decks: You don't even have to attack with it because god knows what pump spell will buff it the other turn and it secures a win by being there, by providing inevitability. Another thing in favor of it is that the opponent has to deal with as many of your creatures asap. The most efficient way to do this is by boardsweepers so control decks have an edge there. However, if it is not a control deck they are piloting, that poses a problem as the Greenness and power to cmc ratio of our creatures combined with rancor and other pump spells makes us play it for 2-3-4 pretty easily even though one or two of our critters are removed. This is very scary as 12 power (potentially 14 with rancor, aspect and blossoming defense, 16 with vines, 7 with dismember lol) is usually a game ender in turns 3-4-5-6 and so on. So in short it is a good card for us but only as a one-off, like Thrun.
Cult of the Succubi Eating Kitten and Brotherhood of Hamsters - Zombie One/Hulking One - Brotherhood of Hamsters disapproves of Damage on the Stack amputation, the corruption of Mythics, and the "Major changes to Extended" in July 2010. You aborted our cards., but we approve of the Modern format. Even if it doesn't ha ve Carrion Feeder or Caller of the Claw in it.
Dex: http://deckbox.org/users/Egementium_instructoid
The more I look at it, the more I realize that this thing Is just bonkers good. Bonkers. 5/4 for ggg, AND a relevant blocking restriction? He's gotta be good for at least 10 per game that he shows up on turn two. Gotta be.
The way we usually play Stompy he doesn’t show up on 2. Most builds in this thread don’t run any mana dorks at all. And once we start playing 1/1 creatures that don’t inherently get bigger we’re cutting into our relevant threat density.
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Budget Modern: GStompyG | R8-WhackR
The tables I've seen have a 64% chance of hitting a third land drop on T3 on a 20-land deck. Is that some magically acceptable number? Where more than a third of the time, you won't hit it?
Where can I find tables like these? I'm very interested in the maths.
edit: Found something.. If that table is correct, and I assume it is, it actually makes me questions why we run so few lands...22 seems like the optimal number, and really the bare minimum if our sideboard has 4 drops.
Running 22 as default would also allow us to take out a land if we don't sideboard in any 4 drops at all, and while that means running one card less somewhere else...lets face it, no one is running lands in their sideboards. Its better to have the land you need for 4 drops with the ability to have an extra slot for sideboarding if you don't use them, than it is to draw your 4 drop and be mana screwed.
My use of "normally" just means the most likely result. Drawing 9 cards (3 turns), 3 out of 9 is 33% and 33% of 60 = 20.
Without resorting to complex probability calculations, this is gives a pretty good idea of what to expect.
According to the tables mistahARK linked, the percentage for hitting a 3rd land drop on turn three is 82.3% on the play and 88.6% on the draw with 21 land.
So, if 82.3% is optimal when on the play, you could actually board out 2 lands down to 19 for 83.8% on the draw. This basically confirms my suspicion that it is probably best to board out a single land every time I know for sure I'm on the draw.
As far as running 22 land, most Stompy decks shy away from any 4-drops. My deck tops out with five 3-drops.
Budget Modern: GStompyG | R8-WhackR
CMCpower 2 or lessAlso, are we allowed to/should we talk about leaked cards?
And it’s glorious. Wowza.
GGG
Creature – Elf Knight
5/4
Steel Leaf Champion can’t be blocked by creatures with power 2 or less.
This is gigantic for us. 3 devotion for Aspect, trades with Gurmag Angler and can't be chumped. I'm down to like 2 Leatherback Baloths in my main but this may be a 4-of. Amazing card.
Nexus MTG News // Nexus - Magic Art Gallery // MTG Dual Land Color Ratios Analyzer // MTG Card Drawing Odds Calculator
Want to play a UW control deck in modern, but don't have jace or snaps?
Please come visit us at the Emeria Titan control thread
+ Daunt!
Also, I will write a tournament report for a tournament from two weeks ago(!) and in it you can see how easy it was to slam Ghalta, Primal Hunger when the meta is so open for it.
Cult of the Succubi Eating Kitten and Brotherhood of Hamsters - Zombie One/Hulking One - Brotherhood of Hamsters disapproves of Damage on the Stack amputation, the corruption of Mythics,
and the "Major changes to Extended" in July 2010. You aborted our cards., but we approve of the Modern format. Even if it doesn't ha ve Carrion Feeder or Caller of the Claw in it.Dex: http://deckbox.org/users/Egementium_instructoid
Way too three drop heavy even with mana dorks. Also you need to hit a minimum 22 lands, and if you keep high end plays 23 would be better. Ghalta should only be run at 1 cause while he will win if he sticks he's definetly the win more variety of card and getting both in one hand would suck. 20 lands and tireless tracker don't work even with fetches and you wont be in a position to pop the clues when you need/want to since most of the time your mana will be tapped down from regular plays regardless. Cramming in coco like your trying might help, but coco really hates didlly creatures like dorks and hitting 4 mana would be hard to do with the setup.
this might be more optimal
4x Elvish Mystic
4x Avatar of the Resolute
2x Scavenging Ooze
4x Strangleroot Geist
2x Rhonas the Indomitable
4x Steel Leaf Champion
1x Ghalta, Primal Hunger
4x Rancor
3x Fatal push
3x Vines of Vastwood
4x Blooming Marsh
6x Forest
2x Overgrown Tomb
1x Misty Rainforest
1x Treetop Village
4x Windswept Heath
4x Wooded Foothills
Decklist:
4 Experiment One
4 Dryad Militant
4 Strangleroot Geist
3 Scavenging Ooze
2 Dungrove Elder
4 Avatar of the Resolute
3 Leatherback Baloth
1 Ghalta, Primal Hunger
4 Rancor
// Instant
4 Vines of Vastwood
2 Dismember
2 Blossoming Defense
2 Aspect of Hydra
// Land
20 Forest
1 Treetop Village
2 Torpor Orb
1 Thrun, the Last Troll
1 Dungrove Elder
2 Choke
1 Deglamer
2 Feed the Clan
2 Gut Shot
2 Natural State
1 Unravel the Aether
1 Creeping Corrosion
Match 1: Janky Tainted Remedy deck with condemn, heroes' reunion, wall of shards, fiery justice and other crazy cards that tried to give me life. 2-1
Game1: I gain some life, lose some life, slam my creatures against the wall of shards a turn or two but win thanks to a timely dismember.
Game2: I side in enchantment hate but see none, I beat some face. The remedy, the wall, and reunion get me to 8. I slam a Ghalta and attack but die to a Condemn
Game3: I keep a Natural State + Deglamer and remove 2 remedies, trample over the wall and win.
Match 2: Mono Blue Merfolk piloted by a promising but inexperienced player. 2-1
Game1: No spreading seas or sea's claim, he hesitates to attack with his 3 lords + cursecatcher, while I also wait for a profitable attack with Strootgeist, 4/4 E1, 4/3 avatar, and a dryad. Then comes Ghalta and we have a combat where most of his team dies. The next turn the 12/12 power pulls a concede from him.
Game2: He has a fast one while I mull to 6: he has aether vial and CA. His side card that taps green dudes arrive. I lose to 4/4 lords. I had sided in chokes but decide to side them out in favor of thrun and natural states.
Game3: We both mull to 5. I keep a Militant, E1, rancorx2 forest hand. He plays island vial. If he had sea's claim I would have lost. I take the turn and attack with the 2/2 E1. Turn 3 he plays a 2 mana merdude. On my turn I slam the rancors on both he does not block and goes down to 10. The other turn he cant find a dude and concedes when I play the baloth (I drew 2 forests). He later tells me he had 4x spreading seas and 4x sea's claim but did not draw any. I exclaim "phew" as that was a narrow escape.
Match 3: Red deck wins with white splash. 2-0
Game1: He plays a 2x monastery Swiftspears, rides the dmg. train till I'm 11 on T3 or so. I also keep attacking with my E1 and Strootguy. Then drop a Dungrove on my T3, a scooze and then another after combat trades. And then he learns who the aggro is.
Game2: Both of us mull to 5 or 6. I keep a 1 forest hand with E1, Avatar, 2xScooze. I see a forest on scry and barely keep my relief in. He is on the go and starts with a Goblin Guide giving me that forest. So far so good. I play E1 and pass. He attacks revealing a Ghalta. We laugh and I don't block. He then searing blazes E1, pass the turn. I draw another land play the avatar and pass. He attacks no blocks and he lightning bolts it. I show no signs of despair and let the fear of Ghalta settle in. I draw 3 more lands, a rancor and a baloth. When the game ended I had a baloth with a rancor on it, 6 lands and a Ghalta in play. He draws his card and scoops. I show him the Feed the clan and he calls BS
I see no path to exiles, or runed halos which he shows were sided in.
Match 4: Nahiri Control piloted by one of my best magic magic buddies with whom we often playtest. This is a 35/65 on his favor.
Game1: I fast aggro him, he has no answers. Ghalta comes in and draws a concede.
Game2: I play choke with Nahiri, the Harbinger on board. I forget that she exiles ench. because I get cocky after G1. 1 cryptic command and two board wipes later, I m looking at Celestial Colonnade chewing on my hps.
Game3: Goes to time as we both had to keep subpar hands and militants+scooze destroy his snappies but dungrove gets countered. He survives my last feeble attacks after pathing the 4/4 scooze and boardwiping some others.
no top 8 as there were only 13 players and we want to do a mixed draft of MM, Eternal, Iconic afterwards. So Ghalta is doable and a star in aggro to aggro matches which are not affinity and which do not attack your CA.
At the end, I win first place (3-3-3-1), 2+1 showdown boosters (+1 bonus for playing a no-proxy deck) and a full art promo Ghalta because I managed to slam it into the board in all 4 matches!!!
Our deck is still kicking now with 12-monstrous-dino-power! Fun times...
P.S: With the inclusion of the new elf, it will be much easier to pull off victories and early Ghaltas as 5 power means a faster clock than Baloth and a lot more rancor friendly (can't be blocked by small dudes, can trample over and kill big dudes, because math!). I am thinking of replacing all baloths with the Steel Leaf Champion as one hidden advantage is that when we dismember a big dude like a 6/6 or a 7/7, even if it does not die this guy will go in for the damage.
Cult of the Succubi Eating Kitten and Brotherhood of Hamsters - Zombie One/Hulking One - Brotherhood of Hamsters disapproves of Damage on the Stack amputation, the corruption of Mythics,
and the "Major changes to Extended" in July 2010. You aborted our cards., but we approve of the Modern format. Even if it doesn't ha ve Carrion Feeder or Caller of the Claw in it.Dex: http://deckbox.org/users/Egementium_instructoid
Yeah, and even comes with a useful ability. WoTC has finally give our deck something good again.
Cannot be blocked by Snapcaster, goblin guide, lingering souls, Dark confidant. mana dorks, by most other elves, even an Etched Champion can't block it.
______________
Nice report Culthero. Looks like Ghalta can be useful after all.
Nexus MTG News // Nexus - Magic Art Gallery // MTG Dual Land Color Ratios Analyzer // MTG Card Drawing Odds Calculator
Want to play a UW control deck in modern, but don't have jace or snaps?
Please come visit us at the Emeria Titan control thread
Cult of the Succubi Eating Kitten and Brotherhood of Hamsters - Zombie One/Hulking One - Brotherhood of Hamsters disapproves of Damage on the Stack amputation, the corruption of Mythics,
and the "Major changes to Extended" in July 2010. You aborted our cards., but we approve of the Modern format. Even if it doesn't ha ve Carrion Feeder or Caller of the Claw in it.Dex: http://deckbox.org/users/Egementium_instructoid