Here is something that has been floating in my mind for a while and I would like to discuss. (Unfortunately I left competitive modern in 2017 and occasionally play storm. I primarily play legacy).
Using the Hyper Geometric Distribution Calculator, you need roughly 12-14 sources of redundancy in something to be consistently in your opening hand (80- 86% consistency). This is generally the number used for mana sources.
However, I've consistently noticed that modern decks do not have the 12 off redundancy, and are frequently relegated to 8 offs.
Examples:
- Creature Toolbox decks frequently float between 7-8 1 CMC mana dorks.
- Affinity (prior to Opal) has 4 SpringLeaf drums and 4 Mox Opals
- Eldrazi with Eye of Ugin has 4 Eldrazi Temple and 4 Eye of Ugin
- Burn/ UR delver often stick to 8 1-drops
- Jund sticks to 7-9 2-drops in including Wreen and Six
I'm question is not really why do they stick to 8 offs (they often don't have good redundancy) but how do these decks plan out mulligans/ sideboard strategies?
(For this reason, I liked the Naya Burn/ Boros deck that played Wild Nacat/ Ragavan instead of the 8 1-drops.)
The problem I've had with 8 offs is they would only have an 65% chance of drawing the card in their opening hand. It often feels like night and day for a deck like Eldrazi Aggro or Noble Hierarch/ Birds of Paradise deck to open with a Temple/ Bird and without.
It feels very problematic designing the curve of the deck with the expectation that it needs to work both with and without an opening fast mana/ 1 drop. Is this something most people need to accept similar to Aether Vial decks where sometimes you draw it in your opening hand and sometimes you do not?
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
I'm actively maintaining a comprehensive article to help explain to new cube players how some complex vintage level cards work in a cube environment. Vintage Cube Cards Explained
Since the new mulligan system where you always draw 7 cards and then ship an increasing number of them back, I've actually felt that I mulligan into a 8-of often enough (e.g. I had a sizeable beef with Bogles's ability to mulligan before the new system, now I don't have that beef any more - note that I'm happy with a mull to 5 with both systems).
Also, I actually don't generally feel like there's a night-and-day difference between games I start with a mana dork vs. games where I start with a 2-drop, or games where I start with targeted discard and games where I start with a 2-drop instead, or even games with small UR where I start with a 1-drop and games where I don't (and often hold up Counterspell on Turn 2). Decks that 100% need the Turn 1 play such as Burn and Zoo and don't have redundancy issues like Bogles often completely glut with 12 or more of their 1-mana effect, anyway. (Note that I strongly trend towards 10 or more 1-mana plays in Dredge, but then Dredge is one of the few decks where I'm happy with a mull to 4.)
My motivation for writing this was watching the Eldrazi deck during Eldrazi Winter where it had some really Feast/ Famine starts with Eye/ Temple and without it.
But i guess I'm over thinking it - The birds of paradise decks normally have collected company to recoup the tempo loss, so its not the end of the world.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
I'm actively maintaining a comprehensive article to help explain to new cube players how some complex vintage level cards work in a cube environment. Vintage Cube Cards Explained
Using the Hyper Geometric Distribution Calculator, you need roughly 12-14 sources of redundancy in something to be consistently in your opening hand (80- 86% consistency). This is generally the number used for mana sources.
However, I've consistently noticed that modern decks do not have the 12 off redundancy, and are frequently relegated to 8 offs.
Examples:
- Creature Toolbox decks frequently float between 7-8 1 CMC mana dorks.
- Affinity (prior to Opal) has 4 SpringLeaf drums and 4 Mox Opals
- Eldrazi with Eye of Ugin has 4 Eldrazi Temple and 4 Eye of Ugin
- Burn/ UR delver often stick to 8 1-drops
- Jund sticks to 7-9 2-drops in including Wreen and Six
I'm question is not really why do they stick to 8 offs (they often don't have good redundancy) but how do these decks plan out mulligans/ sideboard strategies?
(For this reason, I liked the Naya Burn/ Boros deck that played Wild Nacat/ Ragavan instead of the 8 1-drops.)
The problem I've had with 8 offs is they would only have an 65% chance of drawing the card in their opening hand. It often feels like night and day for a deck like Eldrazi Aggro or Noble Hierarch/ Birds of Paradise deck to open with a Temple/ Bird and without.
It feels very problematic designing the curve of the deck with the expectation that it needs to work both with and without an opening fast mana/ 1 drop. Is this something most people need to accept similar to Aether Vial decks where sometimes you draw it in your opening hand and sometimes you do not?
Vintage Cube Cards Explained
Here are some other articles I've written about fine tuning your cube:
1. Minimum Archetype Support
2. Improving Green Archetypes
3. Improving White Archetypes
4. Matchup Analysis
5. Cube Combos (Work in Progress)
Draft my Cube - https://cubecobra.com/cube/overview/d8i
Also, I actually don't generally feel like there's a night-and-day difference between games I start with a mana dork vs. games where I start with a 2-drop, or games where I start with targeted discard and games where I start with a 2-drop instead, or even games with small UR where I start with a 1-drop and games where I don't (and often hold up Counterspell on Turn 2). Decks that 100% need the Turn 1 play such as Burn and Zoo and don't have redundancy issues like Bogles often completely glut with 12 or more of their 1-mana effect, anyway. (Note that I strongly trend towards 10 or more 1-mana plays in Dredge, but then Dredge is one of the few decks where I'm happy with a mull to 4.)
My motivation for writing this was watching the Eldrazi deck during Eldrazi Winter where it had some really Feast/ Famine starts with Eye/ Temple and without it.
But i guess I'm over thinking it - The birds of paradise decks normally have collected company to recoup the tempo loss, so its not the end of the world.
Vintage Cube Cards Explained
Here are some other articles I've written about fine tuning your cube:
1. Minimum Archetype Support
2. Improving Green Archetypes
3. Improving White Archetypes
4. Matchup Analysis
5. Cube Combos (Work in Progress)
Draft my Cube - https://cubecobra.com/cube/overview/d8i