You're definitely hearing wrong. They didn't say SFM would break the format. They said it would decrease diversity and homogenize fair decks to play SFM or most likely fade. Therefore it wouldn't benefit from unbanning her, because at the same time she isn't much of a clock to the fast, linear decks.
As for Twin---I really think Twin would be forced to go Grixis for fatal push, at least in this meta. Bolt is bad, and threats got bigger throughout the years.
Those are nice examples, but none of that had to do with my response. I never said they were right or wrong, I said you're misrepresenting what was shared by their video and opinions.
You're definitely hearing wrong. They didn't say SFM would break the format. They said it would decrease diversity and homogenize fair decks to play SFM or most likely fade. Therefore it wouldn't benefit from unbanning her, because at the same time she isn't much of a clock to the fast, linear decks.
As for Twin---I really think Twin would be forced to go Grixis for fatal push, at least in this meta. Bolt is bad, and threats got bigger throughout the years.
People dont want to think about that. They would rather throw an absolute tantrum over Jace (some people in this very thread) and then when it isnt even remotely as strong as they 'knew' it would be, they just quietly move on.
SFM would be absorbed into the format, like all those other cards. 'Homogenization' is just code for 'be the best card of its type' which will ALWAYS take place, but just like Phoenix showed, once you get to a certain critical mass, that homogenization actually creates cracks in the foundations, in which other decks can find an edge.
EDIT: Watching ACTUAL FACTUAL UW Control (not Terminus) beat up on Tron is always a delight at London.
Saying Twin is fine but SFM is not, is just pure bias. What they said about SFM is exactly why Twin was banned AND we have data backing that up. Not saying Twin isn't fine now, because i think it is, but like IdSurge said, i'm just saying that this homogenization argument is a really bad one unless there's an obvious disparity in power levels, which is not the case for these cards.
So what if every Wx fair deck plays SFM? Good cards will see more play than bad cards. Are we banning all staples because they homogenize decks across the format? How is Twin "just adding another archetype without taking away as much" and SFM is homogenizing all these fair decks that don't even exist in first place because they are already being pushed out by the linear madness? We know for a fact that Twin would homogenize URx decks like it did in the past. But again, so what?
Just a note of correction, Twin did not Homogenize UR Decks. Twin MADE UR Decks.
There is a reason UR didnt do a damn thing for near 3 years.
While the agree twin did define UR, UR really didn't need much of a nudge. Baral breathed life into storm again. Just one card and the deck was a monster for several months.
Granted Phoenix had its entire creature suite printed relatively recently, but the grease has been there for awhile. All of the supporting cards have been floating around for some time.
UR was really just lacking payoffs. Thing, Phoenix, drake, steamkin are all payoff cards and I'm glad we're getting these at reasonable rarities and cmcs.
Sorta like UG is now. It's infuriating to no end that the best UG spell we've gotten in years is growth spiral. I could see a case made for incubation // incongruity The card pool is there though, the color combo just needs a relevant payoff. This block would have been a great place to give us one, but hydroid krasis and frilled mystic ain't it.
Right, but that doesnt disprove my point, Storm is its own thing, and has been there since forever in various shapes and forms. Twin was not 'holding down' UR Diversity. Thats the point here. We NOW have another UR deck that is not Storm, that is not Twin.
The argument to be made is: "Would Twin kill off Phoenix by existing at all."
I dont think so, others think it may, but Twin was not holding down 'Blue Diversity' that is simply not an actual thing, and we have all beaten that horse into dust.
2015 GP/PT T8 #s Twin share: 18.75% Non-Twin blue share: 10.9% Total blue share: 28.1% # of Twin decks: 4 # of non-Twin blue decks: 4 Total unique blue decks: 8
2018 GP/PT T8 #s Twin share: 0% Non-Twin blue share: 28.9% Total share: 28.9% # of Twin decks: 0 # of non-Twin blue decks: 12 Total unique blue decks: 12
So overall, there wasn't a significant change between 2015 Twin/non-Twin blue share and that same share in 2018. There were slightly more unique blue decks overall in 2018 GP/PT T8s, but they generally held smaller shares individually and some may have been enabled by new cards that weren't even around in Twin's time. In all likelihood, a Twin unban would simply reshuffle top-tier diversity, especially among blue decks. I know many people have predicted this in the past, and I think the numbers support that prediction.
EDITED: Previous #s didn't include all 2018 results - corrected.
Re: UR share %, how much of that is due to the removal of Twin? How much of that is due to newly printed cards?
Essentially the question behind the question is how would this look without Phoenix? UR Phoenix not only replaced Twin as the de facto best UR deck, it has been considerably more popular and more successful.
Twin would be an excellent addition to return to the format for many of the reasons stated above by several people.
How on earth can anyone say that UW control is only actual UW control if it doesn't have terminus? At this point the modern haters on the site are known factors. The format is great.
How on earth can anyone say that UW control is only actual UW control if it doesn't have terminus? At this point the modern haters on the site are known factors. The format is great.
Who is saying that? Most people seem to openly acknowledge that UW's strength is almost exclusively tied to Teferi, Search for Azcanta, Field of Ruin, Opt, and Jace's unban, in addition to Path to Exile being the best piece of removal in a GY-based meta.
How on earth can anyone say that UW control is only actual UW control if it doesn't have terminus? At this point the modern haters on the site are known factors. The format is great.
Who's saying that? Dont get rustled over nothing. The formats greatness is down to subjective opinion. If you like it, fantastic.
How on earth can anyone say that UW control is only actual UW control if it doesn't have terminus? At this point the modern haters on the site are known factors. The format is great.
it was just a nod by idsurge to the fact that UW control has had different builds, one of which leaned heavily into miracle terminus. for the most part many have considered it just the superior version of the deck, therefore its always surprising/refreshing/whatever to see a more normalized version do well. if the intent was to downplay controls success or presence, why even mention it at all.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
Control has had quite the resurgence of late. The lack of Terminus in Shaheen's build is probably a nod to Human's uptick, as you must diversify sweepers.
I dont know how my brothers and sisters in UWR land have been of late, but seeing some actual Esper Control and UW success has been great.
It is kind of an ironic twist that gravedecks becoming so powerful makes UWx control strong again, even though historically those are the decks UWx struggles against. When you can forego some mainboard sweepers for Surgical Extraction because most fair creature decks can't deal with Dredge, the format actually becomes more narrow which makes it easier to beat as a control deck.
It is kind of an ironic twist that gravedecks becoming so powerful makes UWx control strong again, even though historically those are the decks UWx struggles against. When you can forego some mainboard sweepers for Surgical Extraction because most fair creature decks can't deal with Dredge, the format actually becomes more narrow which makes it easier to beat as a control deck.
Main deck Rest in Peace, in addition to main deck Surgical, is also a pretty strong house against GYs...
A. London Mulligan appears to be a huge hit. We haven't seen it enable anything too degenerate, and across all formats, it appears to have reduced the impact of variance and increased the number of real games. I have heard a ton of positive feedback on the new rule on stream, which probably means a) pros like it (or Wizards is spinning a story and curating feedback), and/or b) Wizards likes its and wants us to like it. Either way, I expect this will be the new normal in Magic.
B. The metagame is surprisingly varied so far, whether Day 1 or Day 2. No deck was more than 12% of Day 2 and 14% of Day 1 (same deck; Gx Tron). The dreaded Izzet Phoenix deck, which many of us (myself included) feared would utterly dominate the event has mostly been in check. This suggests the metagame has adapted to that previously dominant deck and/or that much of Phoenix's success was part of an echo chamber effect and not true dominance. I'm leaning more towards the former, but adaptation is good regardless.
C. Here's the current list of all 10-3 or better players at the event. I have not calculated their Modern record and, as we all know, a part of this performance is dictated by Limited record. That said, here's a current snapshot of a winner's metagame:
1. Titanshift (Thien Nguyen)
2. G Tron (Alex Hayne)
3. Red Eldrazi Stompy (Mark Jacobson)
4. G Tron (Yuuya Watanabe)
5. Hardened Scales (Joao Andrade)
6. Esper Control (Sergio Garcia Gonzalez)
7. Humans (BBD)
8. Dredge (Chih-Cheng Yeh)
9. BG Rock (Hanno Gullicher)
10. Amulet Titan (Patrick Tierney)
11. Grixis Death's Shadow (Noah Walker)
12. UW Control (Jean-Emmanuel Depraz)
13. G Tron (Adrian Zhu)
14. Humans (Chris Kvartek)
15. UR Phoenix (Javier Dominguez)
16. Hardened Scales (Love Rask)
17. Dredge (Seth Manfield)
18. UW Control (Petr Sochurek)
19. Humans (Eli Loveman)
20. Eldrazi Stompy (Yuki Matsumoto)
21. UW Spirits (Dominic Z)
This is a pretty sweet T22/10-3 list. Humans and Gx Tron have 3 copies each, representing about expected performance for Tron and over-performance for Humans. UR Phoenix only has one copy in this list, and there's a healthy mix of big mana (Titanshift, Amulet Titan), super aggro (Dredge, Hardened Scales), midrange (GDS, BG Rock), control (UW Control, Esper), plus UW Spirits and 2 Eldrazi Stompy copies bringing up the list. Overall a nice showing.
The mulligan rule seems ok at the moment, but I am worried that we'll still see a serum powder/gemstone cavern deck that we haven't seen yet.
The other thing I'm worried about is that I think the combination of open decklists + new mulligan is greater than the sum of its parts.
The mulligan likely does benefit proactive, synergistic decks more than others, and open deck lists likely benefits reactive "goodstuff" decks more than others.
If we keep the mulligan rule, but most lgses won't play with decklists, then theres a nonzero chance that the format suffers.
I've seen a few tweets that the Mulligan rule has increased consistency on non Phoenix decks, to close the gap with a deck that is (Phoenix) a lot of air.
If you don't need 20 cantrips + open deck lists, that is going to tilt the playing field in ways the format has not been tilted.
Modern is going to be reinvented.
1. London Mull
2. War of the Spark
3. Horizons
4. Open Deck Lists? (Not sure if this is just a GP level rule)
Human seems to be the best deck for this Pro Tour/Mythic Championship. Looks like 3 copies at least in the top 8.
I would guess it has something to do with Meddling Mage and players having access to opponent decklists. Go figure.
While the decklists can't hurt I can't imagine that a player capable of piloting to the top 8 of a pro tour wouldn't be able to know what to name based on the opponents first few plays.
Human seems to be the best deck for this Pro Tour/Mythic Championship. Looks like 3 copies at least in the top 8.
I would guess it has something to do with Meddling Mage and players having access to opponent decklists. Go figure.
While the decklists can't hurt I can't imagine that a player capable of piloting to the top 8 of a pro tour wouldn't be able to know what to name based on the opponents first few plays.
Being able to "blind name" your opponent's 4-of removal in game 1 is absolutely, monumentally beneficial. Humans was always good, but this makes Meddling Mage exponentially better.
Just like Wild Nacatl did for aggro and Bitterblossom did for Faeries and Ancestral Vision did for control and Jace, the Mind Sculptor did for Blue and...
Thanks to DNC from Heroes of the Plane Studios for the sig
Check my Pauper Cube!
People dont want to think about that. They would rather throw an absolute tantrum over Jace (some people in this very thread) and then when it isnt even remotely as strong as they 'knew' it would be, they just quietly move on.
SFM would be absorbed into the format, like all those other cards. 'Homogenization' is just code for 'be the best card of its type' which will ALWAYS take place, but just like Phoenix showed, once you get to a certain critical mass, that homogenization actually creates cracks in the foundations, in which other decks can find an edge.
EDIT: Watching ACTUAL FACTUAL UW Control (not Terminus) beat up on Tron is always a delight at London.
Spirits
So what if every Wx fair deck plays SFM? Good cards will see more play than bad cards. Are we banning all staples because they homogenize decks across the format? How is Twin "just adding another archetype without taking away as much" and SFM is homogenizing all these fair decks that don't even exist in first place because they are already being pushed out by the linear madness? We know for a fact that Twin would homogenize URx decks like it did in the past. But again, so what?
There is a reason UR didnt do a damn thing for near 3 years.
Spirits
While the agree twin did define UR, UR really didn't need much of a nudge. Baral breathed life into storm again. Just one card and the deck was a monster for several months.
Granted Phoenix had its entire creature suite printed relatively recently, but the grease has been there for awhile. All of the supporting cards have been floating around for some time.
UR was really just lacking payoffs. Thing, Phoenix, drake, steamkin are all payoff cards and I'm glad we're getting these at reasonable rarities and cmcs.
Sorta like UG is now. It's infuriating to no end that the best UG spell we've gotten in years is growth spiral. I could see a case made for incubation // incongruity The card pool is there though, the color combo just needs a relevant payoff. This block would have been a great place to give us one, but hydroid krasis and frilled mystic ain't it.
The argument to be made is: "Would Twin kill off Phoenix by existing at all."
I dont think so, others think it may, but Twin was not holding down 'Blue Diversity' that is simply not an actual thing, and we have all beaten that horse into dust.
Spirits
I posted this in 04/2018, and it's relevant to this discussion so we are citing actual numbers.
https://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/modern/modern-archives/791992-the-state-of-modern-thread-b-r-16-04-2018?page=3#c63
I'm going to update it to reflect end-of-2018 #s.
2015 GP/PT T8 #s
Twin share: 18.75%
Non-Twin blue share: 10.9%
Total blue share: 28.1%
# of Twin decks: 4
# of non-Twin blue decks: 4
Total unique blue decks: 8
2018 GP/PT T8 #s
Twin share: 0%
Non-Twin blue share: 28.9%
Total share: 28.9%
# of Twin decks: 0
# of non-Twin blue decks: 12
Total unique blue decks: 12
So overall, there wasn't a significant change between 2015 Twin/non-Twin blue share and that same share in 2018. There were slightly more unique blue decks overall in 2018 GP/PT T8s, but they generally held smaller shares individually and some may have been enabled by new cards that weren't even around in Twin's time. In all likelihood, a Twin unban would simply reshuffle top-tier diversity, especially among blue decks. I know many people have predicted this in the past, and I think the numbers support that prediction.
EDITED: Previous #s didn't include all 2018 results - corrected.
Essentially the question behind the question is how would this look without Phoenix? UR Phoenix not only replaced Twin as the de facto best UR deck, it has been considerably more popular and more successful.
Twin would be an excellent addition to return to the format for many of the reasons stated above by several people.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Who is saying that? Most people seem to openly acknowledge that UW's strength is almost exclusively tied to Teferi, Search for Azcanta, Field of Ruin, Opt, and Jace's unban, in addition to Path to Exile being the best piece of removal in a GY-based meta.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Who's saying that? Dont get rustled over nothing. The formats greatness is down to subjective opinion. If you like it, fantastic.
Spirits
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)I dont know how my brothers and sisters in UWR land have been of late, but seeing some actual Esper Control and UW success has been great.
Spirits
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
A. London Mulligan appears to be a huge hit. We haven't seen it enable anything too degenerate, and across all formats, it appears to have reduced the impact of variance and increased the number of real games. I have heard a ton of positive feedback on the new rule on stream, which probably means a) pros like it (or Wizards is spinning a story and curating feedback), and/or b) Wizards likes its and wants us to like it. Either way, I expect this will be the new normal in Magic.
B. The metagame is surprisingly varied so far, whether Day 1 or Day 2. No deck was more than 12% of Day 2 and 14% of Day 1 (same deck; Gx Tron). The dreaded Izzet Phoenix deck, which many of us (myself included) feared would utterly dominate the event has mostly been in check. This suggests the metagame has adapted to that previously dominant deck and/or that much of Phoenix's success was part of an echo chamber effect and not true dominance. I'm leaning more towards the former, but adaptation is good regardless.
C. Here's the current list of all 10-3 or better players at the event. I have not calculated their Modern record and, as we all know, a part of this performance is dictated by Limited record. That said, here's a current snapshot of a winner's metagame:
1. Titanshift (Thien Nguyen)
2. G Tron (Alex Hayne)
3. Red Eldrazi Stompy (Mark Jacobson)
4. G Tron (Yuuya Watanabe)
5. Hardened Scales (Joao Andrade)
6. Esper Control (Sergio Garcia Gonzalez)
7. Humans (BBD)
8. Dredge (Chih-Cheng Yeh)
9. BG Rock (Hanno Gullicher)
10. Amulet Titan (Patrick Tierney)
11. Grixis Death's Shadow (Noah Walker)
12. UW Control (Jean-Emmanuel Depraz)
13. G Tron (Adrian Zhu)
14. Humans (Chris Kvartek)
15. UR Phoenix (Javier Dominguez)
16. Hardened Scales (Love Rask)
17. Dredge (Seth Manfield)
18. UW Control (Petr Sochurek)
19. Humans (Eli Loveman)
20. Eldrazi Stompy (Yuki Matsumoto)
21. UW Spirits (Dominic Z)
This is a pretty sweet T22/10-3 list. Humans and Gx Tron have 3 copies each, representing about expected performance for Tron and over-performance for Humans. UR Phoenix only has one copy in this list, and there's a healthy mix of big mana (Titanshift, Amulet Titan), super aggro (Dredge, Hardened Scales), midrange (GDS, BG Rock), control (UW Control, Esper), plus UW Spirits and 2 Eldrazi Stompy copies bringing up the list. Overall a nice showing.
D. Free SFM.
The other thing I'm worried about is that I think the combination of open decklists + new mulligan is greater than the sum of its parts.
The mulligan likely does benefit proactive, synergistic decks more than others, and open deck lists likely benefits reactive "goodstuff" decks more than others.
If we keep the mulligan rule, but most lgses won't play with decklists, then theres a nonzero chance that the format suffers.
If you don't need 20 cantrips + open deck lists, that is going to tilt the playing field in ways the format has not been tilted.
Modern is going to be reinvented.
1. London Mull
2. War of the Spark
3. Horizons
4. Open Deck Lists? (Not sure if this is just a GP level rule)
Pretty crazy shake up.
Spirits
UB Faeries (15-6-0)
UWR Control (10-5-1)/Kiki Control/Midrange/Harbinger
UBR Cruel Control (6-4-0)/Grixis Control/Delver/Blue Jund
UWB Control/Mentor
UW Miracles/Control (currently active, 14-2-0)
BW Eldrazi & Taxes
RW Burn (9-1-0)
I do (academic) research on video games and archaeology! You can check out my open access book here: https://www.sidestone.com/books/the-interactive-past
I would guess it has something to do with Meddling Mage and players having access to opponent decklists. Go figure.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
While the decklists can't hurt I can't imagine that a player capable of piloting to the top 8 of a pro tour wouldn't be able to know what to name based on the opponents first few plays.
Being able to "blind name" your opponent's 4-of removal in game 1 is absolutely, monumentally beneficial. Humans was always good, but this makes Meddling Mage exponentially better.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Let's take a peek...ah you won't be casting those.
Spirits
UB Faeries (15-6-0)
UWR Control (10-5-1)/Kiki Control/Midrange/Harbinger
UBR Cruel Control (6-4-0)/Grixis Control/Delver/Blue Jund
UWB Control/Mentor
UW Miracles/Control (currently active, 14-2-0)
BW Eldrazi & Taxes
RW Burn (9-1-0)
I do (academic) research on video games and archaeology! You can check out my open access book here: https://www.sidestone.com/books/the-interactive-past