Earlier this week, Ross Merriam did a great job of outlining the fact that Arclight Phoenix is actually a fair deck...
That's adorable that he thinks that.
Lol.
It's similar to Death's Shadow. They call it a "fair" deck, even if previous fair decks didn't have a B:8/8 creature. That one always struck me as odd - a fair deck that casts 8/8 creature(s) for 1 black mana on turns 2-4. The creature normally only gets bigger from there, if needed of course.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Earlier this week, Ross Merriam did a great job of outlining the fact that Arclight Phoenix is actually a fair deck...
That's adorable that he thinks that.
Lol.
It's similar to Death's Shadow. They call it a "fair" deck, even if previous fair decks didn't have a B:8/8 creature. That one always struck me as odd - a fair deck that casts 8/8 creature(s) for 1 black mana on turns 2-4. The creature normally only gets bigger from there, if needed of course.
Yep. Like those "fair" free, hasty, 3/2 fliers. Or that "fair" one-sided board wipe on a 2 mana 7/8. "Fair." LOL
I've been on the fence about whether Faithless Looting should be banned. On one hand, the two seemingly most popular, winning decks both run it. But on the other hand, looting is exactly the kind of consistency tool I would like to see a little more of in the format.
But, graveyard strategies are a problem right now. Maybe we should consider a Stinkweed Imp ban. Dredge gets new toys so often, its possible it needs to just be taken down a notch. Coupled with new exile/tuck removal likely to be printed in MH1, if not sooner, this would allow looting to stay and help reign in the graveyard issue.
I also do think it's a fair deck with an unfair plan B. Thing in the ice is a totally fair card, when backed up by medium in power level cantrips.
Crackling drake is a fair plan C also, pteramander, monastery, etc, also.
HAHAHAHA WHAT. The Phoenix plan is definitely not a "fair" Plan A.
Guys please opinions on japanese cards. Lost a 3/3 creature against Japan celestial colonade. This guy played all creatures and spells in english cards, but some cards in his manabase was japanese. I dont registrated this really ( my brain say its all fine and all english to me lets attack his empty board)...and i am sure it is a Kind of legal cheating. It is not ok, but i know legal. I Hate such people. I never forget colonade normally, but with this Tricks it can happen one time in 3 years and such people take advantage of this
If I am a customer spending premium amount of dollars, I expect a premium service. Jund falls into the category of a premium deck costing more dollars than a majority of the rest of the format. I'm not getting the desired performance ratio per dollars spent out of the Jund deck because WOTC decided to make the format more diverse.
Is Bloodbraid Elf a fair card? I always thought it wasn't, yet Jund gets to be a "Fair" deck. Terminus is DEFINITELY not a fair card, but U/W is a "Fair" deck? Death's Shadow, as mentioned is completely unfair, and heck, most Delve cards are super unfair, as well; but hey, Death's Shadow is generally called a "Fair" deck, as well!
I'm pretty sure most people complaining about how poorly "Fair" decks are doing in the Modern Meta are just back on the usual, "The format isn't interactive enough," train and are using their terminology incorrectly. Any good deck in Modern is doing something unfair; even Skred Red deals 5+ damage for 1 mana.
While I see what you're saying, most players don't consider casting Manamorphose, Manamorphose, Opt, Faithless Looting discard a Phoenix, go to attacks, trigger, attack you for 10 to be interaction. Yes, technically Bolt, Gut Shot, Lightning Axe, and Surgical Extraction are interaction.
I've played a turn 1 Chalice of the Void on the play vs. Phoenix before (Simian Spirit Guide) and STILL lost. They just cast 1 mana spells to flip a Thing and went to work. Now maybe I should have had creatures to back up that Chalice, but the best creatures in the format cost 0, 1, or 2 right now. It's tough to play around your own Chalice when your deck most likely needs to avoid 1 mana creatures to make the impact of Chalice more 1 sided. How many 2 mana creatures am I going to cast after I've taken 7?
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
What's the confusion? Arclight Phoenix by itself is a fair card, the deck/strategy it's played in definitely does NOT want to play fair, but can do so well enough if required.
Dredge cards in a vacuum are relatively fair, but the strategy is busted.
Fair cards do not only go in fair decks, and unfair cards do not only go in unfair decks.
Guys please opinions on japanese cards. Lost a 3/3 creature against Japan celestial colonade. This guy played all creatures and spells in english cards, but some cards in his manabase was japanese. I dont registrated this really ( my brain say its all fine and all english to me lets attack his empty board)...and i am sure it is a Kind of legal cheating. It is not ok, but i know legal. I Hate such people. I never forget colonade normally, but with this Tricks it can happen one time in 3 years and such people take advantage of this
If I am a customer spending premium amount of dollars, I expect a premium service. Jund falls into the category of a premium deck costing more dollars than a majority of the rest of the format. I'm not getting the desired performance ratio per dollars spent out of the Jund deck because WOTC decided to make the format more diverse.
What's the confusion? Arclight Phoenix by itself is a fair card, the deck/strategy it's played in definitely does NOT want to play fair, but can do so well enough if required.
Dredge cards in a vacuum are relatively fair, but the strategy is busted.
Fair cards do not only go in fair decks, and unfair cards do not only go in unfair decks.
If you are paying four mana for Arclight Phoenix, something has gone horribly awry.
If you are paying four mana for Arclight Phoenix, something has gone horribly awry.
And yet, sometimes is exactly what you need to do, because you gotta care for either counters/removals or interaction from your opponent or preserve your cards in hand for later bursts.
It has busted draws, but they're no more busted than the nuts with Humans/Spirits or GDS. Are they unfair decks? If not then phoenix isn't an unfair deck, if they are, then it is. It depends on how do you define "unfair" in a format were unfair/broken is par for the course.
In the 4-5 months that I've been playing the deck, I've only ever done 3 phoenix + flipped Thing in the 3rd turn once. 2 Phoenix on T2 is easier, not common and still not Dredge/Infect/Grishoalbrand type of game ending. Hell, even Elves or Humans can race 2 Phoenixes on T2.
It should be noted that it's worst matchups are fair decks, so Phoenix and decks like it are good for decks like UWx Control/Midrange, Jund, Rock. Dredge is just raining on everyone's parade.
Finally, a point you should consider, from all the games I've played with deck (keep in mind I was an early adopter) the threats that won me the most games have been:
1) Thing
2) Swiftspear (When it was played as a 2-4-of)
3) Drakes = Phoenix
Pteramanders would probably rank next to Swiftspears, but haven't managed to test it as much as I'd like the past few weeks.
I have to say, that coverage of this week's Modern SCG Open has been garbage in terms of diversity viewing. We've watched a ton of Phoenix, a lot of Amulet Titan, and maybe a couple of other random decks (i.e. storm and Grixis Whir). No control or midrange decks. It is nice to watch Phoenix decks because they make for interesting gameplay, but after the 9th time, it gets a bit boring.
It has busted draws, but they're no more busted than the nuts with Humans/Spirits or GDS. Are they unfair decks? If not then phoenix isn't an unfair deck, if they are, then it is. It depends on how do you define "unfair" in a format were unfair/broken is par for the course.
Blatantly false. None of those other decks have a nut draw anywhere near as good as the Phoenix decks.
The high damage potential of humans and spirits only really start on turn 3 on their very best draws.
Guys please opinions on japanese cards. Lost a 3/3 creature against Japan celestial colonade. This guy played all creatures and spells in english cards, but some cards in his manabase was japanese. I dont registrated this really ( my brain say its all fine and all english to me lets attack his empty board)...and i am sure it is a Kind of legal cheating. It is not ok, but i know legal. I Hate such people. I never forget colonade normally, but with this Tricks it can happen one time in 3 years and such people take advantage of this
If I am a customer spending premium amount of dollars, I expect a premium service. Jund falls into the category of a premium deck costing more dollars than a majority of the rest of the format. I'm not getting the desired performance ratio per dollars spent out of the Jund deck because WOTC decided to make the format more diverse.
The last few posts have underscored one of Modern's (Magic's?) biggest issues: inconsistent definitions of important, common terms. The following terms are supposed to be important but, in practice, have become largely meaningless as we all have different understandings of their definitions:
Fair vs. unfair
Linear vs. non-linear
Interactive vs. non-interactive
Midrange vs. tempo vs. control vs. disruptive aggro etc.
Tier X vs. Tier Y
Warping vs. format-defining
Broken vs. powerful
There are probably others I haven't mentioned here too. These definitely COULD be meaningful terms, but most people who cite them aren't speaking the same language. I'm not even suggesting there is necessarily a right or wrong answer here. I'm simply saying that people aren't using the terms the same way. This makes it challenging to have productive conversations about many hot-button Modern issues. I know that I and others have at least tried to agree on some definitions in the past, just so we are understanding the terms in the same way, but I've found most people in this thread aren't super interested in those conversations. Until we have a shared understanding of those definitions, we will probably have more disagreements about topics that we might actually be in agreement about.
So we're labeling it an unfair deck because it can dump 4 Phoenixes on T2 once in a billion? Mind you Death Shadow can kill on T2 and I think Humans can kill on Turn 3(not sure about that).
15 damage maximum on turn 3, although i think this is about as realistic as t2 triple phoenix.
The best damage curve Bant Spirits can have.
T1 Hierarch
T2 Geist
T3 CoCo into 2 lords, swing for 9
9 damage maximum on turn 3.
edit* Alternate for spirits:
T1, Wanderer
T2, wanderer + wanderer, swing for 3.
T3, wanderer + lord, swing for 12.
15 damage maximum on turn 3, although i think this is about as realistic as t2 quad phoenix.
UR Phoenix (I'm making the assumption that 2 phoenixes on turn 2 is a considered a realistic nut draw)
T2, 2 phoenixes, in for 6
T3. at least another 6 assuming no further developments, possibly more.
At least 12 damage on turn 3, with potential for more
I won't talk about GDS because I'm not too familiar with it's supposed nut draw. Feel free to educate me.
It's pretty clear that UR phoenix's realistic nut draw is at least as good as 5C Humans realistic max damage/no disruption curve, with the caveat that UR phoenix can potentially output more than 12 by turn 3, while 5C humans is capped at 14 by turn 3.
Edit: Added more examples of humans and spirits nut draws.
Guys please opinions on japanese cards. Lost a 3/3 creature against Japan celestial colonade. This guy played all creatures and spells in english cards, but some cards in his manabase was japanese. I dont registrated this really ( my brain say its all fine and all english to me lets attack his empty board)...and i am sure it is a Kind of legal cheating. It is not ok, but i know legal. I Hate such people. I never forget colonade normally, but with this Tricks it can happen one time in 3 years and such people take advantage of this
If I am a customer spending premium amount of dollars, I expect a premium service. Jund falls into the category of a premium deck costing more dollars than a majority of the rest of the format. I'm not getting the desired performance ratio per dollars spent out of the Jund deck because WOTC decided to make the format more diverse.
I won't talk about GDS because I'm not too familiar with it's supposed nut draw. Feel free to educate me.
In hypothetical christmas land, you could T1 fetch shock, wraith, wraith, wraith, wraith (go to 9) and cast Death's Shadow. T2 fetch shock to 6 and Temur Battle Rage for 14. If you expand to turn 3, you could throw some Thoughtsiezes in there to get down lower and could theoretically get to or below 3 life to TBR for 20+. In my ~year and a half of playing GDS, I have had this happen exactly once.
In reality, the normal "busted" hands include T2 summoning sick Angler (need 2 fetches + Scour + 1 other spell/card in yard) and you have to tap out without protection, and MAYBE an early shadow. It's not hard to get yourself to 17-13 on the first turn or two, but can often be a challenge to get yourself under 13 quickly.
Humans can deal 17 damage with 3x Champions, Lieutenant and 1 more 1 drop. DS's T2 kill is as extreme as the quad Phoenix + 2 lootings draw, so I won't even bother describing it. Hell, Burn can kill by T3...
Besides, the "busted" draw of 2 Phoenixes on T2 is still uncommon and not even close to unwinnable. Of the times I've done that I'd say I've lost around 20-30% of those games, because of opponent's interaction.
If you follow Phoenix decks, you'll find a certain eventualities:
1) The WORST matchups are fair decks (and Ad Nauseam).
2) It's probably the best aggressive strategy.
However, all this d*ck measuring contest is beside the point. Phoenix is no more busted than the run of the mill aggressive strategies at the moment. It can be interacted with common removal, it's played as much as it's played because as KTK has stated multiple times, it's a type of Xerox, low floor-high ceiling deck, that rewards good play moreso than other aggro decks.
If your worry is the speediness of Modern, Phoenix isn't your problem, Dredge is. Phoenix promotes interaction.
But your initial assertion that phoenix draws are no more busted than humans/spirits nut draws is still false. For one, Humans and spirits see a lot less cards than phoenix, so the triple champion + 1 drop draw you mentioned is much more unlikely to happen than a double phoenix, they are also just as beatable if not more so.
Every other aggro deck relies on a very specific combination of cards in their 1st 9 or 10. Only dredge gets to see as many/more cards than Phoenix.
Guys please opinions on japanese cards. Lost a 3/3 creature against Japan celestial colonade. This guy played all creatures and spells in english cards, but some cards in his manabase was japanese. I dont registrated this really ( my brain say its all fine and all english to me lets attack his empty board)...and i am sure it is a Kind of legal cheating. It is not ok, but i know legal. I Hate such people. I never forget colonade normally, but with this Tricks it can happen one time in 3 years and such people take advantage of this
If I am a customer spending premium amount of dollars, I expect a premium service. Jund falls into the category of a premium deck costing more dollars than a majority of the rest of the format. I'm not getting the desired performance ratio per dollars spent out of the Jund deck because WOTC decided to make the format more diverse.
I would say that Phoenix is just the latest of the aggro-control decks to hit Modern that is much further to the Aggro side of the spectrum, and the issue Modern has is not with this deck in particular but with the glut of this type of deck in general (Aggro & Aggro-Control). Because card selection/cantriping/graveyard abuse - so, anything that allows you to see a lot of cards one way or the other - are so good and the creatures in the game are so efficient as a deliberate design decision, the moment these two can be used in tandem they tend to be overwhelmingly powerful.
In one way or the other this is the story of decks like Phoenix and Death's Shadow and to a lesser extent Dredge, Infect and Affinity because they principally lean on broken set mechanics first and everything else second.
I predict that the former graveyard/cantrip+efficient creatures will just keep on getting more and more powerful in Modern relative to those decks that lean on set mechanics simply because the latter are less likely to receive cards that have their specific mechanics or supplement them well whereas the former just needs general cards that are a bit better than what they already have.
Unless, of course, Horizons nukes the format.
What I disagree with is that the current crop of aggro-control/aggro as decks are:
1. Fair decks
2. Good for the format
-They're certainly not fair the sense that Jund was considered to be fair back in the day, in fact, they're hyper efficient. The more interactive ones like DS and Phoenix are merely more fair than the less interactive ones. That's all.
-They maintain format speed. They may not dictate it, depending on who you ask, people say that decks like Tron and Dredge force speed, but its a bit of a chicken and egg discussion. What is certain is that they don't slow down anything or make room for slower decks. They simply crowd an already very populated field, no more, no less.
On Phoenix. Perhaps we need more graveyard removal that are enchantments like Planar Void, to slow down the faithless loot decks. Maybe void or something similar to it will be printed in MH1?
I'm amused that Phoenix is considered unfair, while Splinter Twin - despite also winning on turn 4 and being powerful - apparently isn't.
I don't think it was broken or needed a ban, but Twin was just as unfair as any other combo deck except Storm because it still technically won through combat.
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On Phoenix. Perhaps we need more graveyard removal that are enchantments like Planar Void, to slow down the faithless loot decks. Maybe void or something similar to it will be printed in MH1?
What you need is grave hate that is flexible scavenging ooze and deathrite shaman are the right idea. Though deathrite is obviously OP.
I'm amused that Phoenix is considered unfair, while Splinter Twin - despite also winning on turn 4 and being powerful - apparently isn't.
Careful, saying that around here is like striking a match in a fireworks factory.
I just want to echo ktkenshinx's comment about operant definitions. At this point, the terms mentioned in that post (alongside similar discussions of skill that are more common elsewhere) have essentially become vehicles for their users' opinions. Fair and unfair are used here as nebulous positive and negative stances. Now, if posters were to share their own definitions for ktkenshinx's listed words as they use them (preferably in a way that doesn't use other jargon), then there could be something closer to dialogue than mudslinging. For example, as user could set a definition for fairness that has decks winning by turn X on average while using/not using strategies Y and Z.
On Phoenix. Perhaps we need more graveyard removal that are enchantments like Planar Void, to slow down the faithless loot decks. Maybe void or something similar to it will be printed in MH1?
Void is too specialized. Effective contemporary GY hate needs to be templated like Knight of Autumn, a modal spell that is never dead and still advances your board state and gameplan. Alternately, you need creature removal that exiles or bottoms creatures. Something like:
Grafdigger's Strike1 Instant
Choose one or both:
-Exile target creature if its power is less than or equal to 3.
-Exile up to three target cards from a graveyard.
Tweak numbers as needed, or adjust power to CMC, toughness, etc. And, disclaimer, I'm more about stats and metagames than design. That said, this is the general kind of tool Wizards needs to print (again, don't get too caught up on the #s) in order to create effective, modal answers to different Modern threats. BO1 Arena design will thankfully push design in this direction, as will Wizards' increasing understanding that Modern needs specialized cards.
EDIT: Changed the cost due to GK's suggestion. Really pushed but a great idea!
That's adorable that he thinks that.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Lol.
It's similar to Death's Shadow. They call it a "fair" deck, even if previous fair decks didn't have a B:8/8 creature. That one always struck me as odd - a fair deck that casts 8/8 creature(s) for 1 black mana on turns 2-4. The creature normally only gets bigger from there, if needed of course.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
But, graveyard strategies are a problem right now. Maybe we should consider a Stinkweed Imp ban. Dredge gets new toys so often, its possible it needs to just be taken down a notch. Coupled with new exile/tuck removal likely to be printed in MH1, if not sooner, this would allow looting to stay and help reign in the graveyard issue.
HAHAHAHA WHAT. The Phoenix plan is definitely not a "fair" Plan A.
I'm pretty sure most people complaining about how poorly "Fair" decks are doing in the Modern Meta are just back on the usual, "The format isn't interactive enough," train and are using their terminology incorrectly. Any good deck in Modern is doing something unfair; even Skred Red deals 5+ damage for 1 mana.
I've played a turn 1 Chalice of the Void on the play vs. Phoenix before (Simian Spirit Guide) and STILL lost. They just cast 1 mana spells to flip a Thing and went to work. Now maybe I should have had creatures to back up that Chalice, but the best creatures in the format cost 0, 1, or 2 right now. It's tough to play around your own Chalice when your deck most likely needs to avoid 1 mana creatures to make the impact of Chalice more 1 sided. How many 2 mana creatures am I going to cast after I've taken 7?
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Dredge cards in a vacuum are relatively fair, but the strategy is busted.
Fair cards do not only go in fair decks, and unfair cards do not only go in unfair decks.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
And yet, sometimes is exactly what you need to do, because you gotta care for either counters/removals or interaction from your opponent or preserve your cards in hand for later bursts.
It has busted draws, but they're no more busted than the nuts with Humans/Spirits or GDS. Are they unfair decks? If not then phoenix isn't an unfair deck, if they are, then it is. It depends on how do you define "unfair" in a format were unfair/broken is par for the course.
In the 4-5 months that I've been playing the deck, I've only ever done 3 phoenix + flipped Thing in the 3rd turn once. 2 Phoenix on T2 is easier, not common and still not Dredge/Infect/Grishoalbrand type of game ending. Hell, even Elves or Humans can race 2 Phoenixes on T2.
It should be noted that it's worst matchups are fair decks, so Phoenix and decks like it are good for decks like UWx Control/Midrange, Jund, Rock. Dredge is just raining on everyone's parade.
Finally, a point you should consider, from all the games I've played with deck (keep in mind I was an early adopter) the threats that won me the most games have been:
1) Thing
2) Swiftspear (When it was played as a 2-4-of)
3) Drakes = Phoenix
Pteramanders would probably rank next to Swiftspears, but haven't managed to test it as much as I'd like the past few weeks.
UB Faeries (15-6-0)
UWR Control (10-5-1)/Kiki Control/Midrange/Harbinger
UBR Cruel Control (6-4-0)/Grixis Control/Delver/Blue Jund
UWB Control/Mentor
UW Miracles/Control (currently active, 14-2-0)
BW Eldrazi & Taxes
RW Burn (9-1-0)
I do (academic) research on video games and archaeology! You can check out my open access book here: https://www.sidestone.com/books/the-interactive-past
Blatantly false. None of those other decks have a nut draw anywhere near as good as the Phoenix decks.
The high damage potential of humans and spirits only really start on turn 3 on their very best draws.
Fair vs. unfair
Linear vs. non-linear
Interactive vs. non-interactive
Midrange vs. tempo vs. control vs. disruptive aggro etc.
Tier X vs. Tier Y
Warping vs. format-defining
Broken vs. powerful
There are probably others I haven't mentioned here too. These definitely COULD be meaningful terms, but most people who cite them aren't speaking the same language. I'm not even suggesting there is necessarily a right or wrong answer here. I'm simply saying that people aren't using the terms the same way. This makes it challenging to have productive conversations about many hot-button Modern issues. I know that I and others have at least tried to agree on some definitions in the past, just so we are understanding the terms in the same way, but I've found most people in this thread aren't super interested in those conversations. Until we have a shared understanding of those definitions, we will probably have more disagreements about topics that we might actually be in agreement about.
The best damage curves 5C humans have.
T1 Champion
T2 Lieutenant, swing for 3.
T3 Mantis Rider, swing for 9
12 damage maximum on turn 3, realistic to achieve.
T1 vial
T2 vial in champion, cast lieutenant, COTP 3/3, TL 1/1, no attacks
T3 cast mantis rider, vial in lieutenant, COTP 6/6, TL 4/4, Mantis Rider 4/4, TL 1/1. swing for 14
14 damage maximum on turn 3, this would be the best output by turn 3 while also being realistic to achieve
*edit: Forgot about triple champion draws so I'll add that in,
T1 champion
T2, champion + champion, swing for 3. 3/3, 2/2, 1/1
T3, Mantis Rider, swing for 12. champions: 4/4, 3/3, 2/2. Mantis Rider 3/3
15 damage maximum on turn 3, although i think this is about as realistic as t2 triple phoenix.
The best damage curve Bant Spirits can have.
T1 Hierarch
T2 Geist
T3 CoCo into 2 lords, swing for 9
9 damage maximum on turn 3.
edit* Alternate for spirits:
T1, Wanderer
T2, wanderer + wanderer, swing for 3.
T3, wanderer + lord, swing for 12.
15 damage maximum on turn 3, although i think this is about as realistic as t2 quad phoenix.
UR Phoenix (I'm making the assumption that 2 phoenixes on turn 2 is a considered a realistic nut draw)
T2, 2 phoenixes, in for 6
T3. at least another 6 assuming no further developments, possibly more.
At least 12 damage on turn 3, with potential for more
I won't talk about GDS because I'm not too familiar with it's supposed nut draw. Feel free to educate me.
It's pretty clear that UR phoenix's realistic nut draw is at least as good as 5C Humans realistic max damage/no disruption curve, with the caveat that UR phoenix can potentially output more than 12 by turn 3, while 5C humans is capped at 14 by turn 3.
Edit: Added more examples of humans and spirits nut draws.
In hypothetical christmas land, you could T1 fetch shock, wraith, wraith, wraith, wraith (go to 9) and cast Death's Shadow. T2 fetch shock to 6 and Temur Battle Rage for 14. If you expand to turn 3, you could throw some Thoughtsiezes in there to get down lower and could theoretically get to or below 3 life to TBR for 20+. In my ~year and a half of playing GDS, I have had this happen exactly once.
In reality, the normal "busted" hands include T2 summoning sick Angler (need 2 fetches + Scour + 1 other spell/card in yard) and you have to tap out without protection, and MAYBE an early shadow. It's not hard to get yourself to 17-13 on the first turn or two, but can often be a challenge to get yourself under 13 quickly.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Besides, the "busted" draw of 2 Phoenixes on T2 is still uncommon and not even close to unwinnable. Of the times I've done that I'd say I've lost around 20-30% of those games, because of opponent's interaction.
If you follow Phoenix decks, you'll find a certain eventualities:
1) The WORST matchups are fair decks (and Ad Nauseam).
2) It's probably the best aggressive strategy.
However, all this d*ck measuring contest is beside the point. Phoenix is no more busted than the run of the mill aggressive strategies at the moment. It can be interacted with common removal, it's played as much as it's played because as KTK has stated multiple times, it's a type of Xerox, low floor-high ceiling deck, that rewards good play moreso than other aggro decks.
If your worry is the speediness of Modern, Phoenix isn't your problem, Dredge is. Phoenix promotes interaction.
But your initial assertion that phoenix draws are no more busted than humans/spirits nut draws is still false. For one, Humans and spirits see a lot less cards than phoenix, so the triple champion + 1 drop draw you mentioned is much more unlikely to happen than a double phoenix, they are also just as beatable if not more so.
Every other aggro deck relies on a very specific combination of cards in their 1st 9 or 10. Only dredge gets to see as many/more cards than Phoenix.
In one way or the other this is the story of decks like Phoenix and Death's Shadow and to a lesser extent Dredge, Infect and Affinity because they principally lean on broken set mechanics first and everything else second.
I predict that the former graveyard/cantrip+efficient creatures will just keep on getting more and more powerful in Modern relative to those decks that lean on set mechanics simply because the latter are less likely to receive cards that have their specific mechanics or supplement them well whereas the former just needs general cards that are a bit better than what they already have.
Unless, of course, Horizons nukes the format.
What I disagree with is that the current crop of aggro-control/aggro as decks are:
1. Fair decks
2. Good for the format
-They're certainly not fair the sense that Jund was considered to be fair back in the day, in fact, they're hyper efficient. The more interactive ones like DS and Phoenix are merely more fair than the less interactive ones. That's all.
-They maintain format speed. They may not dictate it, depending on who you ask, people say that decks like Tron and Dredge force speed, but its a bit of a chicken and egg discussion. What is certain is that they don't slow down anything or make room for slower decks. They simply crowd an already very populated field, no more, no less.
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I don't think it was broken or needed a ban, but Twin was just as unfair as any other combo deck except Storm because it still technically won through combat.
What you need is grave hate that is flexible scavenging ooze and deathrite shaman are the right idea. Though deathrite is obviously OP.
Careful, saying that around here is like striking a match in a fireworks factory.
I just want to echo ktkenshinx's comment about operant definitions. At this point, the terms mentioned in that post (alongside similar discussions of skill that are more common elsewhere) have essentially become vehicles for their users' opinions. Fair and unfair are used here as nebulous positive and negative stances. Now, if posters were to share their own definitions for ktkenshinx's listed words as they use them (preferably in a way that doesn't use other jargon), then there could be something closer to dialogue than mudslinging. For example, as user could set a definition for fairness that has decks winning by turn X on average while using/not using strategies Y and Z.
Void is too specialized. Effective contemporary GY hate needs to be templated like Knight of Autumn, a modal spell that is never dead and still advances your board state and gameplan. Alternately, you need creature removal that exiles or bottoms creatures. Something like:
Grafdigger's Strike 1
Instant
Choose one or both:
-Exile target creature if its power is less than or equal to 3.
-Exile up to three target cards from a graveyard.
Tweak numbers as needed, or adjust power to CMC, toughness, etc. And, disclaimer, I'm more about stats and metagames than design. That said, this is the general kind of tool Wizards needs to print (again, don't get too caught up on the #s) in order to create effective, modal answers to different Modern threats. BO1 Arena design will thankfully push design in this direction, as will Wizards' increasing understanding that Modern needs specialized cards.
EDIT: Changed the cost due to GK's suggestion. Really pushed but a great idea!