Pretty sure I can delete posts if I want to park at 6666.
On second thought, Urza is better than I initially imagined. He costs deceptively less than 4 mana since his Construct at least pays for U, kind of like Teferi, Hero of Dominaria or Wilderness Reclamation. His Unexpected Results is overcosted, but more of utility/flood prevention like Tasigur, the Golden Fang than something you want to gun for every game.
There are some controversial cards and/or some cards I think have promise in at least one deck that you didn't cover above; what do you think about them?
Alright, since you asked nicely:
- Hexdrinker: this sort of mana sink card never does well. Figure of Destiny, Student of Warfare, Warden of the First Tree, Kessig Prowler...the irony is that it gains protection from instants, but its ability must be activated at sorcery speed.
- Splicer's Skill: hardcasting it is nothing special. Splicing it is quite expensive. Even if your deck is nothing but 1-mana instants or sorceries, you can't splice this until turn 5.
- Winds of Abandon: about as good as Declaration in Stone. 2 mana, sorcery, with drawback.
- Wing Shards: good players play spells during their second main phase (corollary: good players don't play prowess decks ) so you can expect to kill one attacker with this.
- Mirrodin Besieged: harder-to-kill alternative to Sai (Saheeli is primarily used in Phoenix so she doesn't count). Playable for this reason, but not spectacular - Sai is a SB card.
- Winter's Rest: Narcolepsy.
- Crypt Rats: what are you hoping to accomplish with this card? If you want to Wrath, play wraths.
- Dead of Winter: unlike On Thin Ice it needs more than one snow land to be good. I think the possibility of maybe having it be a Damnation/Languish for one mana cheaper isn't worth the deckbuilding constraint.
- First-Sphere Gargantua: this is a payoff for looting that doesn't require you to jump through hoops like reanimating another creature or playing two creatures in one turn - you just pay mana for it (gasp!) instead. Unfortunately I think that makes it a bit too fair.
- Nether Spirit: not worth the deckbuilding constraint. You almost certainly have other creatures in your deck, yes, even the fair decks (Snapcaster Mage).
- Ransack the Lab: too expensive at 2 mana.
- Sling-Gang Lieutenant: seems pretty expensive, and we don't have Goblin Lackey to make that a non-issue. The good Goblin deck in Modern has a curve that stops at 2.
- Shatter Assumptions: doesn't seem great against Tron. It's not cheap enough to rip out their land search cards, so they will have Tron, and once they do they are but a topdeck away from getting back into the game after you shatter their assumptions.
- Yawgmoth, Thran Physician: Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet seems better at 4. Helps you when you're behind, etc.
- Aria of Flame: Guttersnipe.
- Geomancer's Gambit: this is like Field of Ruin in spell form, except it is not an instant. Pass.
- Goblin Engineer: PV had a rather amusing Modern Horizons review article which could just have been titled "First Impressions of Goblin Engineer". He does make very convincing arguments for the card. It's a tough call, but I think it's more trouble than it's worth. For the sake of a balanced view I'll list out what I don't like about Engineer:
1) The reanimation ability requires sacrificing an artifact, marring the Stoneforge Mystic comparison. Sometimes the artifact you sacrifice is going to be the weak link that lets your opponent dismantle your lock.
2) It introduces vulnerability to the deck. Yes, you can get back your Bridge through other ways if they kill your Engineer, but that takes time and your opponent can mount an attack while you're defenseless.
3) Abrade answers Engineer if you draw it and your other lock pieces if you don't.
- Igneous Elemental: this is not playable even if it always cost 2RR and didn't have the land check.
- Magmatic Sinkhole: Harvest Pyre, but better. It kills both Crackling Drake and Gurmag Angler while Flame Slash or Roast would miss one of the two, and PWs are no longer safe if they go for the + (well, other than every Karn). Playable in fair UR decks as complementary removal to Bolt.
- Ore-Scale Guardian: Q: How much does this need to be reduced by for it to be a good deal? A: Maybe four. Q: Can you get that many lands into your graveyard quick enough? A: Probably not. Even if you crack fetches from turn 1-3 you still need one more land through some other means.
- Tectonic Reformation: Doesn't seem much better than Molten Vortex, which makes lands in your hand have R: Shock instead of R: draw 1.
- Throes of Chaos: 4 mana for a random spell that costs less than 4 mana sounds like a bad deal.
- Ayula's Influence: hampered by its mana cost. In Life from the Loam decks you want red on turn 1 for Looting to dump lands and Loam in your graveyard. R on turn 1 into RG on turn 2 (for Wrenn/Loam) into RRR on turn 3 for Seismic Assault is easily achievable. If turn 3 is Ayula's Influence, it's technically still doable, but your mana base will be heavier on basic Forests so you might miss those T1 Lootings more often.
- Genesis: too expensive.
- Llanowar Tribe: trite, but dies to Bolt. If you are playing some kind of devotion deck with Leyline of Vitality then it just flips the bird to Bolt, but that seems a little inconsistent, even with the London mulligan.
- Regrowth: probably not good enough. The cards that dump themselves in the graveyard after use are instants and sorceries, and we have Snapcaster Mage to get those back.
- Wall of Blossoms: the OG Wall of Omens, and about as good in the current meta (which is to say, not very). There are decks that want it - Astral Drift is one of them - but I'm not a believer in those decks.
- Weather the Storm: this is not a counter to Storm, they will have enough resources to Grapeshot a second and then third time on the same turn. It is a counter to Burn about as much as Nourish is, i.e. if you're willing to play a card that only counters Burn and is dead in all other matchups, it's there.
- Winding Way: not good, I posted about this already.
- Collected Conjuring: sorcery only kills it. The fun things like Bolts and rituals are instants.
- Ruination Rioter: Like Ore-Scale Guardian, I ask "how much damage does this need to do?" My answer is probably 3; Viashino Pyromancer is unplayable at 2 and player/PW only. That's one less than Guardian, but still a lot of fetches that need to be cracked. Don't play this in a Loam deck of any kind; the whole point of Loam is to get lands out of your graveyard.
- Altar of Dementia: As a Johnny I really like this card since it not only sacs for free but also kills them directly, unlike Viscera Seer/Carrion Feeder/Greater Gargadon. Before this, there was Blasting Station, which was 1 mana too expensive. The Spike in me says that they're never going to print a creature that can be sacced infinitely by itself, so your combo is going to involve at least three pieces (Altar, recurring dude, enabler for recurring dude), one of which can't be grabbed with Collected Company.
- Fountain of Ichor: just play a manland instead.
- Cave of Temptation: see Fountain of Ichor.
- Frostwalk Bastion: oh hey, a manland. Unfortunately, it doesn't tap for colored mana, and Field of Ruin isn't worth cutting for it.
- Prismatic Vista: not playable. In mono-color you shouldn't be playing fetches. In 2-color, use the on-color fetches. If you need more, the question is whether you would rather be able to fetch main color basic + shockland (with an off-color fetch) or main color basic + secondary color basic (with Vista), and I think you'll find the answer to be the former. In 3-color, use fetches in every combination of your colors instead.
- Cloudshredder Sliver: pseudo Heritage Druid + Nettle Sentinel combo when paired with Gemhide Sliver or Manaweft Sliver. The main difference is that each piece is more expensive than the Elves, and multiple Cloudshredders don't stack like multiple Sentinels.
- Dregscape Sliver: feels too defensive. You either have to wait for your Slivers to die, or go through the trouble of discarding them yourself. If you're playing the 16 rainbow land mana base, you can't play Looting, and Ancient Ziggurat won't pay for unearth.
I agree with most of your analysis, which is as measured and logical as usual, but I do have a couple of points of disagreement:
Wing Shards is going to build storm count against Boggles, Infect, and Death's Shadow. All three decks cast spells before combat or before connecting in combat.
I think Collected Conjuring has more potential than you give it credit for. Maybe not in your current deck-based reasoning for why it doesn't cut the mustard, but it does have plenty of brew potential. It gets land destruction, wheel effects, and costless suspend cards, so it does have its niche. Maybe not a large or competitive niche, but it's far from useless.
Wing Shards is going to build storm count against Boggles, Infect, and Death's Shadow. All three decks cast spells before combat or before connecting in combat.
I don't think that any of those decks need a Storm count for Wing Shards, though. If Bogles has more creatures than Auras, you should already be winning. For Infect, similar thing, they don't usually attack with more than 1 creature, especially with Hierarch out. For Shadow, if they cast anything precombat, it's going to be a Thoughtseize/IoK, and they just take the Shards anyways. Except for special cases where the Bogle player diversifies their threats for some reason, or the Infect player swings with a bunch of Glistener Elves/Inkmoths, or the Shadow player deploys a threat precombat (?!) or casts a Thought Scour at sorcery speed (?!), I don't think Wing Shards lines up particularly well against any of those, at least not moreso than Blessed Alliance would in those same circumstances.
Those decks only attack with one creature at a time.
Let's talk about Collected Conjuring then. Collected Company decks, IMO, are brilliantly constructed. The basic line of logic goes like this:
You want to play a lot of 3-drops to maximize your EV from Company. However, that would leave your curve in a mess.
You get around this by playing mana dorks. T1 mana dork ramps you into T2 3-drop. Mana dorks don't discriminate against Company either, casting it on T3.
Those mana dorks are also a consolation prize when Company doesn't hit anything else of value. Company decks need a lot of hits; 28+ creatures is common.
With that in mind, the important questions to ask when assessing Collected Conjuring decks are:
How many <=3 CMC sorceries are there in the deck? As with Company, I would put 28 as the safe minimum.
What is the distribution of 0, 1, 2 and 3 CMC sorceries? If it is heavier on 3CMC, how does the deck deal with drawing a hand full of 3 CMC spells? (It doesn't have to be mana dorks; some of those 3CMC cards could cycle for less than 3 mana, for example.) If it's closer to 1CMC, are you sure the average Conjuring is going to flip over more than 4 mana worth of sorceries? (Maybe some kind of combo?)
This is also a good time to bring up the suspend spells, since they have a CMC of zero, but their effects are worth...well, what are they worth? Conjuring into Ancestral Vision is basically casting Concentrate, a 4 mana spell. Conjuring into Living End is just Wrath of God, another 4 mana spell, if you don't have any creatures to reanimate (see question #1 for a possible reason). Conjuring into Crashing Footfalls is worth maybe 5 mana, if you consider Verdurous Gearhulk giving you 8 power for 5 mana and Armada Wurm costing 6. While all this seems like a fairly costed deal, undercosted even (if you count the chance to flip over another instant/sorcery), remember that flipping over AV/LE/CF itself is a crapshoot.
Wing Shards is going to build storm count against Boggles, Infect, and Death's Shadow. All three decks cast spells before combat or before connecting in combat.
I don't think that any of those decks need a Storm count for Wing Shards, though. If Bogles has more creatures than Auras, you should already be winning. For Infect, similar thing, they don't usually attack with more than 1 creature, especially with Hierarch out. For Shadow, if they cast anything precombat, it's going to be a Thoughtseize/IoK, and they just take the Shards anyways. Except for special cases where the Bogle player diversifies their threats for some reason, or the Infect player swings with a bunch of Glistener Elves/Inkmoths, or the Shadow player deploys a threat precombat (?!) or casts a Thought Scour at sorcery speed (?!), I don't think Wing Shards lines up particularly well against any of those, at least not moreso than Blessed Alliance would in those same circumstances.
Boggles and Infect don't need a whole swarm of creatures for Wing Shards to be more effective than Blessed Alliance. Just two. Attacking with an extra creature when they expect Alliance is a fairly simple maneuver, and Wing Shards is the superior option in that scenario.
For shadow, I was talking about Temur Battle Rage backed up with Stubborn Denial, for which Shards is definitely better. Discard is a moot point because it hits the vast majority of the format's removal anyways, so it's meaningless in the Shards vs. Alliance debate.
Those decks only attack with one creature at a time.
Not 100% of the time, and certainly not while they have a spare creature whilst expecting an edict. Keep in mind that Storm also bypasses Stubborn Denial.
I will concede to you point on Collected Conjuring, though. I did not consider critical mass.
On second thought, Urza is better than I initially imagined. He costs deceptively less than 4 mana since his Construct at least pays for U, kind of like Teferi, Hero of Dominaria or Wilderness Reclamation. His Unexpected Results is overcosted, but more of utility/flood prevention like Tasigur, the Golden Fang than something you want to gun for every game.
I was always imagining Urza's last ability to basically be non-existant except for an "I win the game button" with Thoptorsword, as that's the fist deck I can see him getting payed in. He allows for infinite mana with Thoptorsword, so you can use his ability to hit new Karn + Lattice and lock the game. The opponent won't be able to remove the lattice and you can win on the next turn with your infinite creatures. Beyond that it's just a manasink if you have absolutely nothing else to do.
Those decks only attack with one creature at a time.
Let's talk about Collected Conjuring then. Collected Company decks, IMO, are brilliantly constructed. The basic line of logic goes like this:
You want to play a lot of 3-drops to maximize your EV from Company. However, that would leave your curve in a mess.
You get around this by playing mana dorks. T1 mana dork ramps you into T2 3-drop. Mana dorks don't discriminate against Company either, casting it on T3.
Those mana dorks are also a consolation prize when Company doesn't hit anything else of value. Company decks need a lot of hits; 28+ creatures is common.
With that in mind, the important questions to ask when assessing Collected Conjuring decks are:
How many <=3 CMC sorceries are there in the deck? As with Company, I would put 28 as the safe minimum.
What is the distribution of 0, 1, 2 and 3 CMC sorceries? If it is heavier on 3CMC, how does the deck deal with drawing a hand full of 3 CMC spells? (It doesn't have to be mana dorks; some of those 3CMC cards could cycle for less than 3 mana, for example.) If it's closer to 1CMC, are you sure the average Conjuring is going to flip over more than 4 mana worth of sorceries? (Maybe some kind of combo?)
This is also a good time to bring up the suspend spells, since they have a CMC of zero, but their effects are worth...well, what are they worth? Conjuring into Ancestral Vision is basically casting Concentrate, a 4 mana spell. Conjuring into Living End is just Wrath of God, another 4 mana spell, if you don't have any creatures to reanimate (see question #1 for a possible reason). Conjuring into Crashing Footfalls is worth maybe 5 mana, if you consider Verdurous Gearhulk giving you 8 power for 5 mana and Armada Wurm costing 6. While all this seems like a fairly costed deal, undercosted even (if you count the chance to flip over another instant/sorcery), remember that flipping over AV/LE/CF itself is a crapshoot.
I don't really see Collected Conjuring as high tier playable, but as long as we're brewing, Rampant Growth effects could be used in a similar way to manadorks for Collected Conjuring. We just got Regrowth, which I think can get the Conjuring back you cast it off. Your payoff would then be Suspend spells like AV and Footfalls, played together with As Foretold as a secondary suspend cheat engine. Living End off Conjuring is a little awkward if you plan to use Footfalls, but Anger of the Gods makes your Rhinos survive and gets hit by Conjuring
Biggest constraints are that you play a lot of ramp but are restricted to cheap spells, demanding that you draw a boatload of cards to keep the big wheel turning (which to be fair Regrowth, AV and Conjuring already facilitate a bit) and that your payoff isn't an instant win but "just" a value engine, which often doesn't cut it in Modern. I guess the real question of the deck I'm describing here is "why are you not casting Scapeshift instead?"
On second thought, Urza is better than I initially imagined. He costs deceptively less than 4 mana since his Construct at least pays for U, kind of like Teferi, Hero of Dominaria or Wilderness Reclamation. His Unexpected Results is overcosted, but more of utility/flood prevention like Tasigur, the Golden Fang than something you want to gun for every game.
I was always imagining Urza's last ability to basically be non-existant except for an "I win the game button" with Thoptorsword, as that's the fist deck I can see him getting payed in. He allows for infinite mana with Thoptorsword, so you can use his ability to hit new Karn + Lattice and lock the game. The opponent won't be able to remove the lattice and you can win on the next turn with your infinite creatures. Beyond that it's just a manasink if you have absolutely nothing else to do.
Or, with infinite mana you can exile your entire library including a bunch of cantrips, counterspells, and either Jace, Weilder of Mysteries or Labman.
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Well, I can saw a woman in two, but you won't wanna look in the box when I'm through.
I don't really see Collected Conjuring as high tier playable, but as long as we're brewing, Rampant Growth effects could be used in a similar way to manadorks for Collected Conjuring. We just got Regrowth, which I think can get the Conjuring back you cast it off. Your payoff would then be Suspend spells like AV and Footfalls, played together with As Foretold as a secondary suspend cheat engine. Living End off Conjuring is a little awkward if you plan to use Footfalls, but Anger of the Gods makes your Rhinos survive and gets hit by Conjuring
Biggest constraints are that you play a lot of ramp but are restricted to cheap spells, demanding that you draw a boatload of cards to keep the big wheel turning (which to be fair Regrowth, AV and Conjuring already facilitate a bit) and that your payoff isn't an instant win but "just" a value engine, which often doesn't cut it in Modern. I guess the real question of the deck I'm describing here is "why are you not casting Scapeshift instead?"
Rampant Growths take you from 2 mana to 4 next turn. This is very different from mana dorks taking you from 1 to 3, 3 being the highest CMC hittable off Company.
You can't get the same Conjuring back with Regrowth as you need to choose targets when casting a spell, and Conjuring is not in the graveyard yet. This is different from Eternal Witness, as Witness's effect is an ETB.
On second thought, Urza is better than I initially imagined. He costs deceptively less than 4 mana since his Construct at least pays for U, kind of like Teferi, Hero of Dominaria or Wilderness Reclamation. His Unexpected Results is overcosted, but more of utility/flood prevention like Tasigur, the Golden Fang than something you want to gun for every game.
I was always imagining Urza's last ability to basically be non-existant except for an "I win the game button" with Thoptorsword, as that's the fist deck I can see him getting payed in. He allows for infinite mana with Thoptorsword, so you can use his ability to hit new Karn + Lattice and lock the game. The opponent won't be able to remove the lattice and you can win on the next turn with your infinite creatures. Beyond that it's just a manasink if you have absolutely nothing else to do.
Or, with infinite mana you can exile your entire library including a bunch of cantrips, counterspells, and either Jace, Weilder of Mysteries or Labman.
Jace and Landman are clunky cards in the deck though. With new Karn you are already playing an artifact strategy, so with infinite blockers you can spin Urza until you hit Karn GC, grab a Lattice from your SB, and lock them out of casting things. It's still an instant win because then you just untapped and kill them, but keeps more individually powerful cards in the deck.
Our first MTGO Modern Challenge with Modern Horizons cards is in the books, and it's got a truly scary 10 Bridgevine decks with Altar of Dementia and Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis in its Top 32 (including 3 copies in the Top 8 and a notable 2nd place). How much will this deck affect the meta? Will it push out Dredge? Will it drive everyone and their dog to run UR Phoenix.meta levels of maindeck graveyard hate? What decks will prey on it? Maybe Neoform Grishoalbrand, for example, with its faster clock and ability to dodge Turn 1 targeted discard by comboing on Turn 1?
Our first MTGO Modern Challenge with Modern Horizons cards is in the books, and it's got a truly scary 10 Bridgevine decks with Altar of Dementia and Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis in its Top 32 (including 3 copies in the Top 8 and a notable 2nd place). How much will this deck affect the meta? Will it push out Dredge? Will it drive everyone and their dog to run UR Phoenix.meta levels of maindeck graveyard hate? What decks will prey on it? Maybe Neoform Grishoalbrand, for example, with its faster clock and ability to dodge Turn 1 targeted discard by comboing on Turn 1?
It's hard to say. I saw someone playing it on stream, and the results varied because it was a cross of someone learning the deck and everyone else learning it exists. What I will say though is that the deck looks resilient to most of the common grave hates because 1) there's a good chance you can go off faster than the hate can get you and 2) Hogaak is still fairly easy to cast if it's stuck in your hand and forced to convoke it out.
My musings: I suspect that Leyline of the Void to pick up visibility as I saw the deck just outpace double Relic of Progenitus in a match. The deck also struggles against Chalice on one, so I suspect that Chalice to at the least not go anywhere; it could pick up more visibility as well.
As for the deck itself, I wouldn't be surprised if thanks to how Convoke and Delve are worded that they pay for card costs, if Bridgevine starts picking up Trinisphere because of how surprising much of the deck can ignore Trinisphere altogether. Casting a Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis for 0 mana and then having a judge have to explain "why, yes that indeed works", seems like a fun way to win a game postboard.
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Vive, vale. Siquid novisti rectius istis,
candidus inperti; si nil, his utere mecum.
~~~~~
Our first MTGO Modern Challenge with Modern Horizons cards is in the books, and it's got a truly scary 10 Bridgevine decks with Altar of Dementia and Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis in its Top 32 (including 3 copies in the Top 8 and a notable 2nd place). How much will this deck affect the meta? Will it push out Dredge? Will it drive everyone and their dog to run UR Phoenix.meta levels of maindeck graveyard hate? What decks will prey on it? Maybe Neoform Grishoalbrand, for example, with its faster clock and ability to dodge Turn 1 targeted discard by comboing on Turn 1?
Looks like in Modern Horizons they were very careful with the Storm cards, Dredge cards and Force cards, but they underestimated the Delve cards. A recurring proactive 0 card is quite something.
Carrion Feeder + Gravecrawler + Bridge is one hell of an engine.
When you throw in Altar of Dementia, you can win through Ensnaring Bridge (and at instant speed) by turbo milling your opponent. I do not foresee this deck remaining legal for long. Bridge from Below is living on borrowed times with these new cards.
Yep, Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis is what makes the deck super strong. It's tough to beat a turn 2 8/8 trampler. That makes even Death's Shadow look puny. But the Altar puts the deck in a different dimension, where turn 3s are the norm.
(I'm speaking as someone who's been testing the deck like crazy the past 3 days.)
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Based on those results, it seems that an early sleeper hit is Ice-Fang Coatl, which apparently gets all the support it needs from Snow-covered basic lands.
(Of course, all these results indicate is that Ice-Fang Coatl is versatile; it has a mediocre match-up against Bridgevine's stuff.)
A card I wasn't expecting to put up MTGO League results but that actually showed up in more than one deck is Force of Virtue; apparently, White Weenie builds really do need the quick aggro boost in this meta.
Nearly any pile of 75 cards is capable of stringing together 5 non-swiss wins, and right now people are disproportionately trying out untuned brews with new cards against each other. Not that I ever put any stock in League results anyway, but now is extra irrelevant, other than just to see what people are trying.
Not sure if this list demonstrates it, but they have also combined the Comp and Friendly leagues, so your going to see even more wild results. Like that Goblin list?
Nearly any pile of 75 cards is capable of stringing together 5 non-swiss wins, and right now people are disproportionately trying out untuned brews with new cards against each other. Not that I ever put any stock in League results anyway, but now is extra irrelevant, other than just to see what people are trying.
I'll keep track of whether those new card-using decks were flukes, but once they hit 3 separate MTGO Modern Leagues or above, that's when I think they're potential serious players. I ended up netdecking that Esper Death's Shadow Ranger-Captain of Eos deck because it showed up in a 3rd League result. It's less consistent at pumping DS than other Death's Shadow decks, but it probably grinds the best out of any of them.
Not sure if this list demonstrates it, but they have also combined the Comp and Friendly leagues, so your going to see even more wild results. Like that Goblin list?
I think that's just an artifact of late results (those Modern League results didn't come out on Tuesday like usual). I'm fairly confident that tomorrow's (Friday's) results will come out on schedule and be for Competitive Leagues only.
With that being said, don't think Wizards will completely stop providing combined league results. These irregular results tend to come up the most often right when a new set is released.
A truly awful deck with a 40% win rate has a (0.4^5=0.01) 1% chance of winning and being reported. With a lot of people playing random decks, some of the bad stuff will leak through.
I'm fairly confident that tomorrow's (Friday's) results will come out on schedule and be for Competitive Leagues only.
It is not that WotC combines the results of the Competitive with the Friendly. Competitive and Friendly Leagues simply don't exist anymore and are replaced by a single League.
You can always arrange casual play with friends, but this is a game aka a competition. The idea that people should not want to win to satisfy your sensibilities is foolish.
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On second thought, Urza is better than I initially imagined. He costs deceptively less than 4 mana since his Construct at least pays for U, kind of like Teferi, Hero of Dominaria or Wilderness Reclamation. His Unexpected Results is overcosted, but more of utility/flood prevention like Tasigur, the Golden Fang than something you want to gun for every game.
| Ad Nauseam
| Infect
Big Johnny.
I agree with most of your analysis, which is as measured and logical as usual, but I do have a couple of points of disagreement:
Wing Shards is going to build storm count against Boggles, Infect, and Death's Shadow. All three decks cast spells before combat or before connecting in combat.
I think Collected Conjuring has more potential than you give it credit for. Maybe not in your current deck-based reasoning for why it doesn't cut the mustard, but it does have plenty of brew potential. It gets land destruction, wheel effects, and costless suspend cards, so it does have its niche. Maybe not a large or competitive niche, but it's far from useless.
I don't think that any of those decks need a Storm count for Wing Shards, though. If Bogles has more creatures than Auras, you should already be winning. For Infect, similar thing, they don't usually attack with more than 1 creature, especially with Hierarch out. For Shadow, if they cast anything precombat, it's going to be a Thoughtseize/IoK, and they just take the Shards anyways. Except for special cases where the Bogle player diversifies their threats for some reason, or the Infect player swings with a bunch of Glistener Elves/Inkmoths, or the Shadow player deploys a threat precombat (?!) or casts a Thought Scour at sorcery speed (?!), I don't think Wing Shards lines up particularly well against any of those, at least not moreso than Blessed Alliance would in those same circumstances.
Let's talk about Collected Conjuring then. Collected Company decks, IMO, are brilliantly constructed. The basic line of logic goes like this:
| Ad Nauseam
| Infect
Big Johnny.
Boggles and Infect don't need a whole swarm of creatures for Wing Shards to be more effective than Blessed Alliance. Just two. Attacking with an extra creature when they expect Alliance is a fairly simple maneuver, and Wing Shards is the superior option in that scenario.
For shadow, I was talking about Temur Battle Rage backed up with Stubborn Denial, for which Shards is definitely better. Discard is a moot point because it hits the vast majority of the format's removal anyways, so it's meaningless in the Shards vs. Alliance debate.
Not 100% of the time, and certainly not while they have a spare creature whilst expecting an edict. Keep in mind that Storm also bypasses Stubborn Denial.
I will concede to you point on Collected Conjuring, though. I did not consider critical mass.
MTGO/MTGA: Tyclone
My Primers ~ GWx Vizier Company ~ Knightfall ~ RG Eldrazi ~ Green's Sun's Zenith
More Brews ~ Modern Four Horsemen ~ Gitrog Dredge
I don't really see Collected Conjuring as high tier playable, but as long as we're brewing, Rampant Growth effects could be used in a similar way to manadorks for Collected Conjuring. We just got Regrowth, which I think can get the Conjuring back you cast it off. Your payoff would then be Suspend spells like AV and Footfalls, played together with As Foretold as a secondary suspend cheat engine. Living End off Conjuring is a little awkward if you plan to use Footfalls, but Anger of the Gods makes your Rhinos survive and gets hit by Conjuring
Biggest constraints are that you play a lot of ramp but are restricted to cheap spells, demanding that you draw a boatload of cards to keep the big wheel turning (which to be fair Regrowth, AV and Conjuring already facilitate a bit) and that your payoff isn't an instant win but "just" a value engine, which often doesn't cut it in Modern. I guess the real question of the deck I'm describing here is "why are you not casting Scapeshift instead?"
Or, with infinite mana you can exile your entire library including a bunch of cantrips, counterspells, and either Jace, Weilder of Mysteries or Labman.
You can't get the same Conjuring back with Regrowth as you need to choose targets when casting a spell, and Conjuring is not in the graveyard yet. This is different from Eternal Witness, as Witness's effect is an ETB.
| Ad Nauseam
| Infect
Big Johnny.
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
MTGO/MTGA: Tyclone
My Primers ~ GWx Vizier Company ~ Knightfall ~ RG Eldrazi ~ Green's Sun's Zenith
More Brews ~ Modern Four Horsemen ~ Gitrog Dredge
My musings: I suspect that Leyline of the Void to pick up visibility as I saw the deck just outpace double Relic of Progenitus in a match. The deck also struggles against Chalice on one, so I suspect that Chalice to at the least not go anywhere; it could pick up more visibility as well.
As for the deck itself, I wouldn't be surprised if thanks to how Convoke and Delve are worded that they pay for card costs, if Bridgevine starts picking up Trinisphere because of how surprising much of the deck can ignore Trinisphere altogether. Casting a Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis for 0 mana and then having a judge have to explain "why, yes that indeed works", seems like a fun way to win a game postboard.
candidus inperti; si nil, his utere mecum.
~~~~~
Greetings,
Kathal
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
When you throw in Altar of Dementia, you can win through Ensnaring Bridge (and at instant speed) by turbo milling your opponent. I do not foresee this deck remaining legal for long. Bridge from Below is living on borrowed times with these new cards.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
(I'm speaking as someone who's been testing the deck like crazy the past 3 days.)
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Based on those results, it seems that an early sleeper hit is Ice-Fang Coatl, which apparently gets all the support it needs from Snow-covered basic lands.
(Of course, all these results indicate is that Ice-Fang Coatl is versatile; it has a mediocre match-up against Bridgevine's stuff.)
A card I wasn't expecting to put up MTGO League results but that actually showed up in more than one deck is Force of Virtue; apparently, White Weenie builds really do need the quick aggro boost in this meta.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Spirits
I'll keep track of whether those new card-using decks were flukes, but once they hit 3 separate MTGO Modern Leagues or above, that's when I think they're potential serious players. I ended up netdecking that Esper Death's Shadow Ranger-Captain of Eos deck because it showed up in a 3rd League result. It's less consistent at pumping DS than other Death's Shadow decks, but it probably grinds the best out of any of them.
I think that's just an artifact of late results (those Modern League results didn't come out on Tuesday like usual). I'm fairly confident that tomorrow's (Friday's) results will come out on schedule and be for Competitive Leagues only.
With that being said, don't think Wizards will completely stop providing combined league results. These irregular results tend to come up the most often right when a new set is released.
It is not that WotC combines the results of the Competitive with the Friendly. Competitive and Friendly Leagues simply don't exist anymore and are replaced by a single League.