1. Izzet Phoenix is the real deal, but it's probably being overplayed right now
2. Bant Spirits is very overplayed
3. Hardened Scales is very underplayed
4. GDS is the best fair deck
5. KCI probably deserves to eat a ban soon
6. GB Midrange is better than a lot of people seem to think
for #1: is it though? maybe i have some bias/paranoia kicking in because i picked up the deck recently as a change of pace. however im with idsurge, being low key astonished how quickly the deck has muscled its way to the top. despite that its momentum hasnt slowed. admittedly, and this is just conjecture, i think the deck has very attractive qualities compared to some of the decks that had their own hype train over the last year and a half. however playing the deck and its consistent performance, and i would not be surprised if its a problem deck that coasts by with no one noticing because we have been desensitized to flavor of the month(s) occurrences.
as for #2, i think its kinda hard to overplay a deck that arguably has the best sustained results and matchup spread given an open field. i think it would be more accurate to say that humans is being underplayed, likely from everyone switching, and that spirits looks less appealing with ur phoenix at the helm of the format.
mostly agree with your other claims. though i think UW control is in the same space as GDS for fair decks. i remember touching on the topic in a response to some generic reddit post, but i believe that UW fails to have a sustained presence despite its 'stats' because the deck runs contrary to what modern is about nowadays. the deck purely reactive and does its best (and succeeds to a good extent) to ignore text boxes, so it gets to that 'alright to pretty good' range against most anything. with modern being about deck counters, proactive decks jousting, and a fast shifting meta though UW isnt offering any edge that top level players might typically seek out. when your goal isnt so much to win matches, but to win tournaments (or place well); the risk reward payoff for choosing a deck that capitalizes on a good read on the top tables and a strong proactive plan that can muscle through games where variance swings your way is just better (imo).
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
1. Izzet Phoenix is the real deal, but it's probably being overplayed right now
2. Bant Spirits is very overplayed
3. Hardened Scales is very underplayed
4. GDS is the best fair deck
5. KCI probably deserves to eat a ban soon
6. GB Midrange is better than a lot of people seem to think
1. I've seen a lot of Bant Spirits past 2 months or so, seems strong but still a bit overplayed. On the other hand I don't think I've ever played against hardened scales and modern is what I play the most
2. I'm going to be putting GDS back together soon. I remember when people were complaining about how busted it was when it was at it its peak
3. At this point I don't know if I can defend keeping all of kci intact as it is. After Oakland where it put 4 copies in the top 8, I think something needs to go.
why does it even matter. if you want to feel vindicated in believing midrange sucks, you dont need to reach that far. it does. traditional GBx was destined to fall in power level as the card pool grew. the format moves towards extremes and you just dont cover as much as well.
besides no matter how you categorize GDS someone loses. GDS is propping both midrange and 'grow' spell based tempo in representation. with grow decks actually being worse off since the next 'best' option is probably UR wizards, whereas jund and rock occasionally post high profile finishes at the SCG and GP level.
The argument on the previous page was that the priemier midrange deck had 2 spots in the top 8 so I was stressing my opinion that midrange isn’t viable at all.
Sure, its tempo, cool. Thats an insanely disruptive tempo deck, able to both grind decks out with removal, and win out of nowhere.
In the end, this isnt the format some (many?) of us remember with rose coloured glasses, and yes 'traditional' midrange is struggling. That said, there are a lot of decks 'struggling' at the hands of a few right now.
No doubt just seems to me if you want be on the abuse artifacts train, KCI is the way to go.
KCI had a high barrier of entry in terms of deck creation and initial understanding the lines to victory but now I think most of those issues have been ironed out on the GP and SCG Circuit.
Some interesting things in there but it shows that nobody should take this as the absolute gospel. The data is incomplete and so should be paired with something else to draw conclusions from it.
For example in this it shows that Spirits has done absolutely terrible against KCI but in ktkenshinxs analysis Spirits does actually pretty decent against KCI. So it's easy to draw wrong conclusions just based on this. If I take this and compare it with ktkenshinxs data though a few things can become clear though.
Spirits indeed doesn't do well against Phoenix. As a matter of fact Phoenix does decent against all decks that rely on heavy board presence to win the game. Bolts for days and Thing in the Ice make sure of that. Against decks that don't do that things are looking not as hot though.
GDS is interesting because in ktkenshinxs data it's not well represented and by the data that is there it looks not so good. Hard to draw conclusions here based on that. Pairing this with my personal opinion though I would at least say that GDS doesn't have a favorable matchup against Phoenix. I think that the matchup is even and very skill dependent. In the last SCG Open Top 8 both GDS players quickly lost 0-2 against their Phoenix opponents.
Misevaluating how much life you can safely pay can be punished quickly and harshly by the Phoenix deck and there is also the fact that GDS is ill-equipped to handle all the angles of attack. Destroy removal is notoriously bad against a flying creature with haste that returns from the graveyard and the premier spell of choice for that is Fatal Push which in turn needs Revolt to even be able to hit a Phoenix. Something that will not the case every single time. Stubborn Denial also isn't at its best in the matchup because both Arclight Phoenix and Thing in the Ice don't actually care if a spell resolves or not. They only care about casting them so if they have a mixture of their 1 mana cantrips and bolts it's trivial to bring back Phoenixes or transform a Thing and Denial won't change that. Speaking of Thing I wouldn't say it's at its best in the GDS matchup but the text is still relevant. Gurmag Angler getting bounced is very bad news and 7 power also means you might not be able to even afford a single hit from it.
I know Phoenix players like Ross Merriam actually say to not bring in graveyard hate against them and I think that's right for decks like UW/x or GB/x which already have maindeck answers to stop getting grinded out by Phoenixes. In GDS you probably really want those Leyline of the Void or Surgical Extractions though to stop that angle of attack. But Phoenix players are also wising up and bring in their own Extractions to counter opposing ones. Something to keep in mind probably.
mostly agree with your other claims. though i think UW control is in the same space as GDS for fair decks. i remember touching on the topic in a response to some generic reddit post, but i believe that UW fails to have a sustained presence despite its 'stats' because the deck runs contrary to what modern is about nowadays. the deck purely reactive and does its best (and succeeds to a good extent) to ignore text boxes, so it gets to that 'alright to pretty good' range against most anything. with modern being about deck counters, proactive decks jousting, and a fast shifting meta though UW isnt offering any edge that top level players might typically seek out. when your goal isnt so much to win matches, but to win tournaments (or place well); the risk reward payoff for choosing a deck that capitalizes on a good read on the top tables and a strong proactive plan that can muscle through games where variance swings your way is just better (imo).
It's funny you say that because I too think there is some hive mind thinking among certain Modern players. I don't want to paint anyone in a bad light here. Reid Duke for example is a way better and more experienced player than me and in many videos of his there is a theme where he states that being proactive is a trait he values and thinks is better. In the last SCG Open he dropped 5-3 with Abzan. Two of his losses were on camera and both times it was against a UW/x player and he lost them pretty convincingly to be honest. Even the commentators said that.
I also remember a watching a Youtube video of a GDS players who said at the beginning that he thinks he has a good matchup against UW. He lost the match 0-2 after that.
Let's make one thing clear. UW Control is an objectively powerful deck. The numbers are there to prove it. Personal opinion doesn't play a role in that. Even the "fair deck killer" Tron doesn't have an auto win against UW because that is not how things work.
Will the deck ever rule the meta? Probably not unless we get stuff like Sensei's Divining Top, Brainstorm, Ponder to unlock the full potential of the Miracle spells and Counterbalance of course or we get some other new toys to play with. But here is the thing everybody should keep in mind. Control by its very nature doesn't appeal to everyone which means it will always have a lower share than it objectively should have.
In RTR-Theros Standard Sphinx's Revelation Control was the objectively most powerful deck in the format and yet Mono-Black Devotion was still played in higher numbers despite of that. There are tons of people who just love to smash with creatures and that is OK. That's just how it is and nobody will be able to change that.
But Control will always be there and it will punish decks and people who don't respect it. Now more then ever in the entire history of Modern. Because Jace, The Mind Sculptor, Teferi, Hero of Dominaria and Azcanta, The Sunken Ruin aren't screwing around. They can put games away quickly and make it nigh unwinnable for the opponent. A trait that Control didn't really have before them in Modern but it is here now and it is there to stay.
I was stressing my opinion that midrange isn’t viable at all.
Don't take this the wrong way, but if your opinion is so one-sided as to be "X isn't viable at all" and you start having to mess around with people's definitions of a word for your opinion to viable, it's a problematic view. Your actual view may be more realistic, but the words you are using are 'extremifying' it, to the extent that you've almost proven yourself wrong by definition. It doesn't allow for discussion, there's no compromise, no room for talk, you've not even given any room for your expressed view to be incorrect in the slightest.
As soon as a single midrange deck hits a top 8 anywhere in the world, your 0-100% opinion suddenly gets nulled the heck out.
Hyperbole just makes it easier to be disproven, even if it feels like it backs you up or makes a more more intense.
Advice: pull back on the extreme view about midrange. Settle on something more moderate like "it's not favoured right now" which is far easier to discuss and less easy to disprove. (and I think we'd all agree with you)
Oh and I think it's been satisfactorily shown that grixis death's shadow is at least partly midrange in its game-plan. There are no easily defined decks. Everything has a bit of everything. Stop trying to square-peg-round-hole and you'll probably find people here friendlier and more amenable to your views.
The argument on the previous page was that the priemier midrange deck had 2 spots in the top 8 so I was stressing my opinion that midrange isn’t viable at all.
Well, the data from GP Oakland says that GB Rock did pretty well, so...
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Modern UBR Grixis Shadow UBR UR Izzet Phoenix UR UW UW Control UW GB GB Rock GB
Commander BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
All in all though, Birthing pod could be a card that could be OK at the moment. Maybe not. Just throwing this out here, to have a meaningful discussion about it. Thanks for hearing me out!
Most definitely not going to happen, especially not with Vannifar just being printed.
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Well, I can saw a woman in two, but you won't wanna look in the box when I'm through.
i actually think pod would be within reason power wise. i just think it is unlikely because it might condense green toolbox, even if the archetype isnt in the best place. also pod is probably one of the few exceptions where the 'it might break later' rationale holds water; because although it applies to any number of cards or effects 'creatures that do stuff' is just too big of a sandbox.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
Re Pod: thanks to Felidar Guardian, it just wins if you have a finks already in play. The "it gets better over time" argument is very real with pod and probably kills it.
That said if you've never had the pleasure of using Pod with Guardian in your deck, it's super sweet and very fun. Broken, but fun.
I actually think Pod would probably be within reason power level wise but I think it's a stronger and more homogenizing card than GSZ, and GSZ should therefore be freed first.
What's the combo with Felidar Guardian? Just sac a 3 drop and get Kiki?
Finks-->Pod into Felidar, Finks persists, flicker Pod
Finks-->Pod into Restoration Angel/another Felidar, flicker Pod
Either 4 drop-->Pod into Kiki, win
Sure, its tempo, cool. Thats an insanely disruptive tempo deck, able to both grind decks out with removal, and win out of nowhere.
In the end, this isnt the format some (many?) of us remember with rose coloured glasses, and yes 'traditional' midrange is struggling. That said, there are a lot of decks 'struggling' at the hands of a few right now.
I stayed out of the "what is GDS" debate because I find it kinda silly, but your post here has prompted me to weigh in. In my opinion disruption doesn't define Midrange. A Midrange deck can be completely devoid of disruption and still be Midrange.
Midrange is roughly defined, I believe, by being bigger and slower than aggro, but once it stops aggro being able to turn the corner as if it were a faster control deck, while simultaneously being smaller and faster than a control deck. They have historically, especially in Modern, featured plenty of kill and discard spells. But those tools are ancillary to the term's definition, which is pretty much all in the size and CC makeup of the creature base.
Tempo is roughly defined, I believe, as a deck that looks to knock its opponent off at least one axis of its resources and then presents a fast clock. The purest Tempo deck I can think of is RUG Delver in Legacy. Wasteland and Stifle backed by Delver and Mongoose and 'Goyf. Grixis Delver was the best Tempo deck in that format before they banned DRS. Some lists played Stifle, but more played Hymn and TS and Inquisition. The existence of those discard spells didn't switch Grixis Delver to being a Midrange deck.
From what I understand, "disruption" is more a feature of Tempo decks than it is of Midrange decks. We just associate discard with Midrange because of decks like Jund.
Spirits
for #1: is it though? maybe i have some bias/paranoia kicking in because i picked up the deck recently as a change of pace. however im with idsurge, being low key astonished how quickly the deck has muscled its way to the top. despite that its momentum hasnt slowed. admittedly, and this is just conjecture, i think the deck has very attractive qualities compared to some of the decks that had their own hype train over the last year and a half. however playing the deck and its consistent performance, and i would not be surprised if its a problem deck that coasts by with no one noticing because we have been desensitized to flavor of the month(s) occurrences.
as for #2, i think its kinda hard to overplay a deck that arguably has the best sustained results and matchup spread given an open field. i think it would be more accurate to say that humans is being underplayed, likely from everyone switching, and that spirits looks less appealing with ur phoenix at the helm of the format.
mostly agree with your other claims. though i think UW control is in the same space as GDS for fair decks. i remember touching on the topic in a response to some generic reddit post, but i believe that UW fails to have a sustained presence despite its 'stats' because the deck runs contrary to what modern is about nowadays. the deck purely reactive and does its best (and succeeds to a good extent) to ignore text boxes, so it gets to that 'alright to pretty good' range against most anything. with modern being about deck counters, proactive decks jousting, and a fast shifting meta though UW isnt offering any edge that top level players might typically seek out. when your goal isnt so much to win matches, but to win tournaments (or place well); the risk reward payoff for choosing a deck that capitalizes on a good read on the top tables and a strong proactive plan that can muscle through games where variance swings your way is just better (imo).
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Modern Challenge.
https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/modern-challenge-2019-01-13
Absolutely 'LUL' at the number of Phoenix.
Top 8
Amulet
Bant Spirits
Dredge
KCI
Blue Moon!
U Tron!
Phoenix
GDS
--
16
UW Control
UWR No 4+ Sweepers at all (wut)
U Tron
Ad Nauseam
Jund
Phoenix
Phoenix
Phoenix
--
24
Storm
Phoenix
Phoenix
Burn
Frenzy Affinity
Phoenix
RG Ramp? Moon? I have no idea.
Phoenix
--
32
Phoenix
G Tron
Storm
Frenzy Affinity
Grindfather Prison
KCI
Grindfather Prison
UR Wizards
Spirits
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Staff1. I've seen a lot of Bant Spirits past 2 months or so, seems strong but still a bit overplayed. On the other hand I don't think I've ever played against hardened scales and modern is what I play the most
2. I'm going to be putting GDS back together soon. I remember when people were complaining about how busted it was when it was at it its peak
3. At this point I don't know if I can defend keeping all of kci intact as it is. After Oakland where it put 4 copies in the top 8, I think something needs to go.
The argument on the previous page was that the priemier midrange deck had 2 spots in the top 8 so I was stressing my opinion that midrange isn’t viable at all.
In the end, this isnt the format some (many?) of us remember with rose coloured glasses, and yes 'traditional' midrange is struggling. That said, there are a lot of decks 'struggling' at the hands of a few right now.
Spirits
Its a totally different thing. I've been killed out of 'nowhere' via infect damage.
Spirits
Affinity, Lantern, KCI, G Affinity, and Prison.
Spirits
KCI had a high barrier of entry in terms of deck creation and initial understanding the lines to victory but now I think most of those issues have been ironed out on the GP and SCG Circuit.
Some interesting things in there but it shows that nobody should take this as the absolute gospel. The data is incomplete and so should be paired with something else to draw conclusions from it.
For example in this it shows that Spirits has done absolutely terrible against KCI but in ktkenshinxs analysis Spirits does actually pretty decent against KCI. So it's easy to draw wrong conclusions just based on this. If I take this and compare it with ktkenshinxs data though a few things can become clear though.
Spirits indeed doesn't do well against Phoenix. As a matter of fact Phoenix does decent against all decks that rely on heavy board presence to win the game. Bolts for days and Thing in the Ice make sure of that. Against decks that don't do that things are looking not as hot though.
GDS is interesting because in ktkenshinxs data it's not well represented and by the data that is there it looks not so good. Hard to draw conclusions here based on that. Pairing this with my personal opinion though I would at least say that GDS doesn't have a favorable matchup against Phoenix. I think that the matchup is even and very skill dependent. In the last SCG Open Top 8 both GDS players quickly lost 0-2 against their Phoenix opponents.
Misevaluating how much life you can safely pay can be punished quickly and harshly by the Phoenix deck and there is also the fact that GDS is ill-equipped to handle all the angles of attack. Destroy removal is notoriously bad against a flying creature with haste that returns from the graveyard and the premier spell of choice for that is Fatal Push which in turn needs Revolt to even be able to hit a Phoenix. Something that will not the case every single time. Stubborn Denial also isn't at its best in the matchup because both Arclight Phoenix and Thing in the Ice don't actually care if a spell resolves or not. They only care about casting them so if they have a mixture of their 1 mana cantrips and bolts it's trivial to bring back Phoenixes or transform a Thing and Denial won't change that. Speaking of Thing I wouldn't say it's at its best in the GDS matchup but the text is still relevant. Gurmag Angler getting bounced is very bad news and 7 power also means you might not be able to even afford a single hit from it.
I know Phoenix players like Ross Merriam actually say to not bring in graveyard hate against them and I think that's right for decks like UW/x or GB/x which already have maindeck answers to stop getting grinded out by Phoenixes. In GDS you probably really want those Leyline of the Void or Surgical Extractions though to stop that angle of attack. But Phoenix players are also wising up and bring in their own Extractions to counter opposing ones. Something to keep in mind probably.
It's funny you say that because I too think there is some hive mind thinking among certain Modern players. I don't want to paint anyone in a bad light here. Reid Duke for example is a way better and more experienced player than me and in many videos of his there is a theme where he states that being proactive is a trait he values and thinks is better. In the last SCG Open he dropped 5-3 with Abzan. Two of his losses were on camera and both times it was against a UW/x player and he lost them pretty convincingly to be honest. Even the commentators said that.
I also remember a watching a Youtube video of a GDS players who said at the beginning that he thinks he has a good matchup against UW. He lost the match 0-2 after that.
Let's make one thing clear. UW Control is an objectively powerful deck. The numbers are there to prove it. Personal opinion doesn't play a role in that. Even the "fair deck killer" Tron doesn't have an auto win against UW because that is not how things work.
Will the deck ever rule the meta? Probably not unless we get stuff like Sensei's Divining Top, Brainstorm, Ponder to unlock the full potential of the Miracle spells and Counterbalance of course or we get some other new toys to play with. But here is the thing everybody should keep in mind. Control by its very nature doesn't appeal to everyone which means it will always have a lower share than it objectively should have.
In RTR-Theros Standard Sphinx's Revelation Control was the objectively most powerful deck in the format and yet Mono-Black Devotion was still played in higher numbers despite of that. There are tons of people who just love to smash with creatures and that is OK. That's just how it is and nobody will be able to change that.
But Control will always be there and it will punish decks and people who don't respect it. Now more then ever in the entire history of Modern. Because Jace, The Mind Sculptor, Teferi, Hero of Dominaria and Azcanta, The Sunken Ruin aren't screwing around. They can put games away quickly and make it nigh unwinnable for the opponent. A trait that Control didn't really have before them in Modern but it is here now and it is there to stay.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ajelenbogen/status/1083444796956524544
Probably the most brief and accurate take on Magic as a whole, and hyper relevant to Modern.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Don't take this the wrong way, but if your opinion is so one-sided as to be "X isn't viable at all" and you start having to mess around with people's definitions of a word for your opinion to viable, it's a problematic view. Your actual view may be more realistic, but the words you are using are 'extremifying' it, to the extent that you've almost proven yourself wrong by definition. It doesn't allow for discussion, there's no compromise, no room for talk, you've not even given any room for your expressed view to be incorrect in the slightest.
As soon as a single midrange deck hits a top 8 anywhere in the world, your 0-100% opinion suddenly gets nulled the heck out.
Hyperbole just makes it easier to be disproven, even if it feels like it backs you up or makes a more more intense.
Advice: pull back on the extreme view about midrange. Settle on something more moderate like "it's not favoured right now" which is far easier to discuss and less easy to disprove. (and I think we'd all agree with you)
Oh and I think it's been satisfactorily shown that grixis death's shadow is at least partly midrange in its game-plan. There are no easily defined decks. Everything has a bit of everything. Stop trying to square-peg-round-hole and you'll probably find people here friendlier and more amenable to your views.
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
Most definitely not going to happen, especially not with Vannifar just being printed.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)That said if you've never had the pleasure of using Pod with Guardian in your deck, it's super sweet and very fun. Broken, but fun.
Abzan Traverse / Traverse Shadow / UR Kiki
Seems so.
Spirits
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
Finks-->Pod into Felidar, Finks persists, flicker Pod
Finks-->Pod into Restoration Angel/another Felidar, flicker Pod
Either 4 drop-->Pod into Kiki, win
There are probably other routes, too.
Midrange is roughly defined, I believe, by being bigger and slower than aggro, but once it stops aggro being able to turn the corner as if it were a faster control deck, while simultaneously being smaller and faster than a control deck. They have historically, especially in Modern, featured plenty of kill and discard spells. But those tools are ancillary to the term's definition, which is pretty much all in the size and CC makeup of the creature base.
Tempo is roughly defined, I believe, as a deck that looks to knock its opponent off at least one axis of its resources and then presents a fast clock. The purest Tempo deck I can think of is RUG Delver in Legacy. Wasteland and Stifle backed by Delver and Mongoose and 'Goyf. Grixis Delver was the best Tempo deck in that format before they banned DRS. Some lists played Stifle, but more played Hymn and TS and Inquisition. The existence of those discard spells didn't switch Grixis Delver to being a Midrange deck.
From what I understand, "disruption" is more a feature of Tempo decks than it is of Midrange decks. We just associate discard with Midrange because of decks like Jund.
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero