I think these last few posts have been calm an reasonable, even with different opinions. This is great.
I do run 4 kiki-jiki in the build I have now. In my experiance the creature removal has not been the problem, it's the 5 cmc that makes him so much worse. I don't play this deck much anymore because it will finish an FNM with a 2-4 record. With twin being cheaper I was pulling 4-2 records.
I also think GSZ is an acceptable unban. It will be really good in green creature combo decks and allow for more early mana ramp by getting dryad arbor, but that encourages more interaction or you'll be run over by those new decks. I think most likely 1) SFM, 2) Twin, 3) GSZ as far as likelthood for this announcement. Looking past those 3 I think the likelihood is getting pretty slim for ever being unbanned, even though I personally believe a few more would be at the acceptable power level too. With any luck maybe we'll get two unbans again this year.
okay there has been a lot of things going on in the past 24-48 hours.
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While I doubt that RNA is going to spawn new tier 1 decks (except perhaps whatever the most efficient way to break Electrodominance turns out to be), it has introduced a lot of things that make brewing new stuff exciting again. I've been tinkering with with Sultai and Temur flash deck builds to see if I can try to get them to about tier 2 levels of power.
While I know this thread tends to focus around the highest levels of competition, I think it is important to also talk about how the FNM crowds feel about Modern. Local metas vary wildly, and it is fascinating to hear what deck archetypes are popular in various regions. A ton of magic players either: a) don't have the time/money to go to higher level events, b) don't have the ambition to go to that next level.
If you want to talk about what the best decks are in Modern, then naturally you want to look at the highest level of competition; however, it feels like this thread tends to forget that those levels of play simply don't apply to the majority of the player base. There are plenty of players who bring what they know/like to their local tournaments and have a blast. That's a facet of modern play that seems to get lost too often.
right, but if you want to do any sort of balancing and or tuning to the format you have to strip away all those things. at the local level it is naturally going to be more casual, and any number of factors might influence deck choice. so yeah everyones personal 'modern' might be a little different.
id imagine that a minority of modern players experience what is being complained about; at least to any significant degree. however this doesnt change the reality that it CAN be experienced, and a good number of players ARE experiencing it. what if your local scene is hyper competitive? what if you grind mtgo? what if you play in events with very real incentives for winning?
much as wizards themselves found out with the 'gentlemans agreement'. if people are enjoying a format at one level, but its markedly different at another; then why not take steps to bring it closer to the one people are having more fun with. otherwise they might as well be playing different formats that happen to share the same name. having that cohesion, the knowledge that what you have is a shared experience you can pick up and take elsewhere, it matters. why be interested in content, or seek to be involved in the format community at large, if 'my' modern isnt the same as someone elses.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
I would like to take a moment to thank the moderators for the measured response that was just taken. I posted a deck list i was considering yesterday and I probably should not have done that. Anyway my point is....
THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR NOT BANNING DISCUSSION OR LOCKING THE THREAD RIGHT BEFORE THE BIG JAN ANNOUNCEMENT.
On a different note: is there a new ban/unban poll for this announcement? And what shell is the first you would try SFM in? I'm working on a BW shell with bitterblossom and squadron hawks.
Thanks for all that info. I read that when it was announced but didn't link that to future announcements. I guess we'll see when it happens, but SFM is almost a given IMO.
Thanks for all that info. I read that when it was announced but didn't link that to future announcements. I guess we'll see when it happens, but SFM is almost a given IMO.
To be fair, SFM has been "a given" for something like 2+ years. It is laughably less powerful than what pretty much all top decks are currently capable of, and was banned for the sins of a completely different format. It is fairly widely agreed that its continued ban has nothing to do with its power, but instead optics and perception.
Am I an idiot for thinking that SFM is not ok in Modern? It costs 2 mana, slots into almost every white deck, is a good threat. Even when he gets removed, it's not like your deck falls apart. You are up a card.
I was in the SFM believer camp for a long time but then I read articles and talked to much better players than myself and they all had a few things in common:
.) they said for ages that JTMS and BBE is fine for Modern
.) they think SFM is too good for Modern
I think most people are fairly certain SFM does not deserve to be on the banlist, but I hope most of us have a healthy level of skepticism when it comes to the Ban/Restricted Team recognizing that fact.
Its hard to play this format and think that SFM is going to 'break' the format. Could it be good? Maybe. Could it be great? Doubtful. You can DIE on Turn 3. Whats a stupid Batterskull going to do for you now?
The issue with SFM is really: What is the most powerful thing it can do?
1) It can put into play a 4/4 Vigilance Lifelink artifact on turn 3, after tapping out on turn 2, and then also using 2 mana on turn 3, and then the token still can't even attack until turn 4.
2) It can get one of the five "Sword of (X) & (Y)" equipment and... beat in after turn 3 for incremental value?
Side note: neither Batterskull nor Swords see ANY meaningful play WHATSOEVER, due to the rise and efficiency of artifact removal. Mostly due to Kolaghan's Command, but also newly-added Abrade, and classic Ancient Grudge.
Meanwhile, here's a non-comprehensive list of things off the top of my head, which the top decks can do by turn 3 or 4:
- Attacking for 13+ with flipped Thing in the Ice and 2 Phoenix
- Karn, Ugin, Wurmcoil Engine, etc.
- Multiple 1 mana 5/5s and 12/12s
- Multiple free 4/4s
- Dredging 15+ power onto the board
- Primeval Titan (Valakuts or Amulets)
- Killed by Storm
- Killed by Infect
- Killed by KCI
- Killed by Burn
etc, etc, etc...
Meanwhile, some of the most played cards in Modern are forms of creature removal and hand disruption that both kill Stoneforge herself, or can take the equipment out of hand. It's also a format that lacks any meaningful ways to protect her that are available in other formats, such as Force, Daze, Mother of Runes, and various taxing lands. Stoneforge Mystic is not only NOT overpowered, I'd argue it's not good at all in Modern. I heavily predict that, if unbanned, she would have little to no meaningful impact after the initial wave of people jamming and forcing it, which is exactly what happened with Jace.
yet the deckbuilding cost to do all those more powerful things is substantially higher. the power of sfm isnt just the outcome. 6 slots for the effect, and the effect itself works well with other just generically good cards.
so unlike with vanilla affinity for ezample you dont have to play crappy ornithopters and springleaf drums for their synergistic effect with the real power cards like ravager. after the 6 slot cost you get to play cards like thoughtseize, k-command, spell queller, assassin's trophy, field of ruin, etc, etc.
therefore any lack of power from sfm spitting out a measly 4/4 lifelinker can easily be supplemented, making the net 'power' high enough to compete. its the entire premise of 'good-stuff' cards.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
Well, in another meta, SFM could be too good for Modern. Notably a midrange one. We are far off that meta though, and I doubt we are ever coming back. Also, with K - Com, abrade, fatal push and other prints, answers for her are more than enough. Oh, Terminus is a thing also. She sucks vs terminus.
I greatly disagree that SFM would be good in a "midrange" format. Not only is that something that will likely never happen to Modern, but you seem to answer that 'problem' yourself by stating that these midrange decks would simply load up on disruption and removal; which completely destroy SFM's gameplan. Without the free or extremely efficient protection/taxing effects available to Legacy (where she is still just OK and not amazing, and that's WITH Jitte), she will never be close to "broken" and will likely never even be above "sort of good, I guess."
Well, in another meta, SFM could be too good for Modern. Notably a midrange one. We are far off that meta though, and I doubt we are ever coming back. Also, with K - Com, abrade, fatal push and other prints, answers for her are more than enough. Oh, Terminus is a thing also. She sucks vs terminus.
I greatly disagree that SFM would be good in a "midrange" format. Not only is that something that will likely never happen to Modern, but you seem to answer that 'problem' yourself by stating that these midrange decks would simply load up on disruption and removal; which completely destroy SFM's gameplan. Without the free or extremely efficient protection/taxing effects available to Legacy (where she is still just OK and not amazing, and that's WITH Jitte), she will never be close to "broken" and will likely never even be above "sort of good, I guess."
Well, Turn 1 hand disruption, take your spot removal into turn 2 SFM is not something we should snug off that easily. For example, some years ago, SFM would be instantly rebanned if unbanned(up until 2015).
I would love nothing more than for my opponent to spend 4 mana over 2 turns to accomplish something objectively weaker than what the majority of top decks are capable of. I hope people play this card if unbanned, so I can utterly stomp all over it with any of the decks I play.
Every time I die within the first four or five turns of the game, I often think (and sometimes out loud): "Could you imagine how much worse it would have been if my opponent tapped out for Stoneforge Mystic instead?" And then I laugh as I die to some broken nonsense.
There are any number of scenario's to 'prove' SFM is not safe, just as we can 'prove' that Taking Turns is a beast, or Burn is unbeatable, and so on.
There are any number of scenario's to 'prove' SFM is useless as well.
The truth is somewhere in the middle, but considering there is not a single meaningful Midrange presence in the meta, I'm certainly not going to stay awake at night fearful of an SFM unban.
My stance is that the most powerful things she is absolutely capable of are objectively weaker than the things capable of nearly every other top deck. And it's not even really close.
There are any number of scenario's to 'prove' SFM is not safe, just as we can 'prove' that Taking Turns is a beast, or Burn is unbeatable, and so on.
There are any number of scenario's to 'prove' SFM is useless as well.
The truth is somewhere in the middle, but considering there is not a single meaningful Midrange presence in the meta, I'm certainly not going to stay awake at night fearful of an SFM unban.
That's exactly what I said. She would be a beast in a midrange meta. Also, if she comes off, be sure to change that signature of yours
Why? Cindervines, K Command, Smash to Smithereens, Destructive Revelry, or just...kill the SFM.
That's the issue here, even Burn could chew through SFM.
I was in the SFM believer camp for a long time but then I read articles and talked to much better players than myself and they all had a few things in common:
.) they said for ages that JTMS and BBE is fine for Modern
.) they think SFM is too good for Modern
This a problem I have with discussing Modern bans and unbans, people often put too much faith in what Pros' say or write, without treating their opinion with a healthy bit of skepticism. Not so say all Pros are wrong, they are good players for a reason, but basing your opinion solely on what they say is foolish.
Not even among Pro players is there a concise opinion regarding SFM, almost as if people are flawed and have innate biases.
Jeff Hoogland ( I know, not the best example ) has stated BBE, Jace and SFM are fine, same with Shaheen Sorani. Brian Braun-Duin also wrote an article discussing the pros of cons of unbanning SFM.
Ari Lax is against SFM, but he also once said if they unban Bitterblossom that he'll show everyone why it was banned. Still waiting on that one, Ari Lax. Peter Ingram is staunchly against SFM, but him along with Ari Lax think Jitte is fine.
Those are just a few examples. You could sift through every pro's opinion on the subject but you'll find just as many contradictory opinions as well.
Are any people here who are like: well maybe my assumptions regarding SFM could be wrong?
Or is this a giant echo chamber where everyone is 100 % certain that SFM is fair and it will absolutely be unbanned in the near future?
First, instead of mislabeling it as an "echo chamber" why not stand back and see if they are on to something?
Second, no card is 100% safe to unban. There is always going to be unknown factors but "A life without risk is a life not lived."
To further reiterate the first point, the reason so many people here believe SFM is safe is because she fits well within Modern's current power level. Yes, she nets you advantage upon summoning but plenty of cards legal already do that. In an increasingly fast format you need to tap out, wait a turn before deploying a 4/4 with Life Link and Vigilance; that's not really impressive given the competition.
The only sensible argument against SFM is homogeneity, but again, that is more of an unknown factor. Some of said SFM would slot into Bant Eldrazi, now Bant Spirits, and others have stated Death & Taxes wouldn't even cut Leonin Arbitor. I have recall someone saying Burn would run SFM. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
i mean whether you think the card is good enough to do something, or will be largely unplayable; it doesnt really matter. both are still categorized as a 'safe' unban.
for a card like SFM to be 'too good' you would have to expect a response similar to deathrite shaman. the way modern is now, that is just extremely hard to believe.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
My personal biggest argument against SFM unban is:
.) Wotc stated in the past that they don't want to unban cards that slot into Tier 1 strategies.
.) Wotc could think that it would slot into Humans, Spirits.
I'm personally not sure if Humans and Spirits would even play it. Humans could rebuild the manabase if it really wanted SFM (Mana Confluence etc.).
Over the years I have seen several disappointed people that are sad that SFM is still not unbanned. And I don't think it is reasonable to expect SFM to get unbanned.
Edit: Another argument against SFM is that it would reduce the impact of future cards. Maybe that is another reason why Wotc does not want SFM.
Edit: Another argument against SFM is that it would reduce the impact of future cards. Maybe that is another reason why Wotc does not want SFM.
This isn't really an argument though. In the last 7 years, what has Wizards printed that would actually do anything with SFM? Nothing. Equipment doesn't see play in Modern as it is now and the only equipment people are generally scared of is Batterskull with her. There has been nothing printed since the Swords and Batterskull that would come even close to breaking her because Wizards is actively keeping their power level low. If they haven't printed anything to break her up until now, then their really isn't a concern about the future.
And, even if that day sometime comes where they really push an equipment, the decision to ban her or the equipment can be evaluated. The meta as it is, and her place on the banlist, should not be dictated by what some unforeseen future may hold. She would likely not be a problem in the meta we have now which suggests her place on the list is undeserved.
Am I an idiot for thinking that SFM is not ok in Modern? It costs 2 mana, slots into almost every white deck, is a good threat. Even when he gets removed, it's not like your deck falls apart. You are up a card.
I was in the SFM believer camp for a long time but then I read articles and talked to much better players than myself and they all had a few things in common:
.) they said for ages that JTMS and BBE is fine for Modern
.) they think SFM is too good for Modern
First of all, I trust the opinions of other Modern aficionados way more than the pros when it comes to this format. Most pros only play Modern when they have a tournament coming up. These are all the same people who said that Ancestral Vision, Thopter Sword, and Jace were too powerful for Modern.
Here are a couple points to think about with SFM:
1. She goes into fair grindy midrange decks. These decks need help in Modern.
2. The best thing she does is a turn 3 4/4 vigilance life linker that's somewhat resilient to creature removal. That's really far down the list of most busted things you can do in Modern. Turn 3 Batterskull is not better than turn 3 Wurmcoil or Karn, turn 3 flip a TitI and put 2 Arclights in play, turn 2 reanimate Griselbrand and kill you, turn 3 Grapeshot for 20, turn 1 put two 4/4s into play, turn 3 loop my Pyrite Spellbomb and kill you, turn 3 attack with a 10/10 Death's Shadow and Temur Battle Rage it, turn 2 dredge 15 cards and puke 12 power into play, turn 3 make a hasted double striking Primeval Titan, etc. I think you get the picture here...
3. There is a lot more interaction for SFM in Modern than there is in Legacy. Legacy decks historically have not run artifact hate in their sideboards (although I see people are playing Abrade now). Modern has always been heavy on answers to artifacts in sideboards because of Affinity, and now because of Hardened Scales and KCI. Everyone is already running answers to Batterskull.
4. Batterskull and the Swords cycle don't see any play on their own. If these cards were already being played even without SFM I would be more concerned, but they're not. That implies that Batterskull for 5 mana is just not good enough for Modern. If your SFM gets killed before you get to untap with her, that's what you have in your hand: a card that isn't good enough to see regular Modern play anymore.
5. She does not "limit future equipment design space." WotC does not print equipment anywhere near the power level of the Swords anymore, let alone Batterskull. Equipment these days is printed for limited play only. They haven't printed anything at Standard power level in like a decade. The limitations that SFM would put on equipment power level are way outside of the space that WotC is already working in when it comes to equipment.
That's all sideboard cards right there. K Command is not a card Burn can facilitate. Or else, they will take your answer on Turn 1 mate! The only real answer is an early searing blaze(if they don't take it).
Or any one of the 20 or so Bolts in their deck, lol. I don't think Burn would have any problem with SFM. Trying to get up to 5 mana to cast a Batterskull is not a winning strategy against Burn (believe me, I've tried it before), and there's a roughly 0% chance your SFM survives to untap.
My personal biggest argument against SFM unban is:
.) Wotc stated in the past that they don't want to unban cards that slot into Tier 1 strategies.
.) Wotc could think that it would slot into Humans, Spirits.
I'm personally not sure if Humans and Spirits would even play it. Humans could rebuild the manabase if it really wanted SFM (Mana Confluence etc.).
Over the years I have seen several disappointed people that are sad that SFM is still not unbanned. And I don't think it is reasonable to expect SFM to get unbanned.
Edit: Another argument against SFM is that it would reduce the impact of future cards. Maybe that is another reason why Wotc does not want SFM.
She doesn't really fit into any current tier 1 decks. Like you said, she doesn't fit into Humans. Her and the Batterskull don't have any synergies with the rest of the deck. As for Spirits, you start getting into the territory where you're making your CoCos worse when you're adding more non-creatures to the deck. I'm not sure it would be worth it. She doesn't fit into UW Miracles or the current Jeskai Control deck. I'm sure there would be some kind of UWx Stoneblade deck that would be built around her, but who knows if that would actually be better than the current UWx decks? And finally, I don't think "impact of future cards" thought is a good reason to keep her banned. I mean, Jace absolutely impacts the chances of future Jaces or 4 mana control walkers making their way into Modern, and WotC still unbanned him. If something is strong enough for Modern, it'll see play, whether SFM is around or not.
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Modern UBR Grixis Shadow UBR UR Izzet Phoenix UR UW UW Control UW GB GB Rock GB
Commander BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
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I do run 4 kiki-jiki in the build I have now. In my experiance the creature removal has not been the problem, it's the 5 cmc that makes him so much worse. I don't play this deck much anymore because it will finish an FNM with a 2-4 record. With twin being cheaper I was pulling 4-2 records.
I also think GSZ is an acceptable unban. It will be really good in green creature combo decks and allow for more early mana ramp by getting dryad arbor, but that encourages more interaction or you'll be run over by those new decks. I think most likely 1) SFM, 2) Twin, 3) GSZ as far as likelthood for this announcement. Looking past those 3 I think the likelihood is getting pretty slim for ever being unbanned, even though I personally believe a few more would be at the acceptable power level too. With any luck maybe we'll get two unbans again this year.
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Ulka
While I know this thread tends to focus around the highest levels of competition, I think it is important to also talk about how the FNM crowds feel about Modern. Local metas vary wildly, and it is fascinating to hear what deck archetypes are popular in various regions. A ton of magic players either: a) don't have the time/money to go to higher level events, b) don't have the ambition to go to that next level.
If you want to talk about what the best decks are in Modern, then naturally you want to look at the highest level of competition; however, it feels like this thread tends to forget that those levels of play simply don't apply to the majority of the player base. There are plenty of players who bring what they know/like to their local tournaments and have a blast. That's a facet of modern play that seems to get lost too often.
id imagine that a minority of modern players experience what is being complained about; at least to any significant degree. however this doesnt change the reality that it CAN be experienced, and a good number of players ARE experiencing it. what if your local scene is hyper competitive? what if you grind mtgo? what if you play in events with very real incentives for winning?
much as wizards themselves found out with the 'gentlemans agreement'. if people are enjoying a format at one level, but its markedly different at another; then why not take steps to bring it closer to the one people are having more fun with. otherwise they might as well be playing different formats that happen to share the same name. having that cohesion, the knowledge that what you have is a shared experience you can pick up and take elsewhere, it matters. why be interested in content, or seek to be involved in the format community at large, if 'my' modern isnt the same as someone elses.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR NOT BANNING DISCUSSION OR LOCKING THE THREAD RIGHT BEFORE THE BIG JAN ANNOUNCEMENT.
On a different note: is there a new ban/unban poll for this announcement? And what shell is the first you would try SFM in? I'm working on a BW shell with bitterblossom and squadron hawks.
To be fair, SFM has been "a given" for something like 2+ years. It is laughably less powerful than what pretty much all top decks are currently capable of, and was banned for the sins of a completely different format. It is fairly widely agreed that its continued ban has nothing to do with its power, but instead optics and perception.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
I was in the SFM believer camp for a long time but then I read articles and talked to much better players than myself and they all had a few things in common:
.) they said for ages that JTMS and BBE is fine for Modern
.) they think SFM is too good for Modern
Spirits
Or is this a giant echo chamber where everyone is 100 % certain that SFM is fair and it will absolutely be unbanned in the near future?
Spirits
1) It can put into play a 4/4 Vigilance Lifelink artifact on turn 3, after tapping out on turn 2, and then also using 2 mana on turn 3, and then the token still can't even attack until turn 4.
2) It can get one of the five "Sword of (X) & (Y)" equipment and... beat in after turn 3 for incremental value?
Side note: neither Batterskull nor Swords see ANY meaningful play WHATSOEVER, due to the rise and efficiency of artifact removal. Mostly due to Kolaghan's Command, but also newly-added Abrade, and classic Ancient Grudge.
Meanwhile, here's a non-comprehensive list of things off the top of my head, which the top decks can do by turn 3 or 4:
- Attacking for 13+ with flipped Thing in the Ice and 2 Phoenix
- Karn, Ugin, Wurmcoil Engine, etc.
- Multiple 1 mana 5/5s and 12/12s
- Multiple free 4/4s
- Dredging 15+ power onto the board
- Primeval Titan (Valakuts or Amulets)
- Killed by Storm
- Killed by Infect
- Killed by KCI
- Killed by Burn
etc, etc, etc...
Meanwhile, some of the most played cards in Modern are forms of creature removal and hand disruption that both kill Stoneforge herself, or can take the equipment out of hand. It's also a format that lacks any meaningful ways to protect her that are available in other formats, such as Force, Daze, Mother of Runes, and various taxing lands. Stoneforge Mystic is not only NOT overpowered, I'd argue it's not good at all in Modern. I heavily predict that, if unbanned, she would have little to no meaningful impact after the initial wave of people jamming and forcing it, which is exactly what happened with Jace.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
so unlike with vanilla affinity for ezample you dont have to play crappy ornithopters and springleaf drums for their synergistic effect with the real power cards like ravager. after the 6 slot cost you get to play cards like thoughtseize, k-command, spell queller, assassin's trophy, field of ruin, etc, etc.
therefore any lack of power from sfm spitting out a measly 4/4 lifelinker can easily be supplemented, making the net 'power' high enough to compete. its the entire premise of 'good-stuff' cards.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)I greatly disagree that SFM would be good in a "midrange" format. Not only is that something that will likely never happen to Modern, but you seem to answer that 'problem' yourself by stating that these midrange decks would simply load up on disruption and removal; which completely destroy SFM's gameplan. Without the free or extremely efficient protection/taxing effects available to Legacy (where she is still just OK and not amazing, and that's WITH Jitte), she will never be close to "broken" and will likely never even be above "sort of good, I guess."
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
I would love nothing more than for my opponent to spend 4 mana over 2 turns to accomplish something objectively weaker than what the majority of top decks are capable of. I hope people play this card if unbanned, so I can utterly stomp all over it with any of the decks I play.
Every time I die within the first four or five turns of the game, I often think (and sometimes out loud): "Could you imagine how much worse it would have been if my opponent tapped out for Stoneforge Mystic instead?" And then I laugh as I die to some broken nonsense.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
There are any number of scenario's to 'prove' SFM is useless as well.
The truth is somewhere in the middle, but considering there is not a single meaningful Midrange presence in the meta, I'm certainly not going to stay awake at night fearful of an SFM unban.
Spirits
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Why? Cindervines, K Command, Smash to Smithereens, Destructive Revelry, or just...kill the SFM.
That's the issue here, even Burn could chew through SFM.
Spirits
I made a nice profit off my UWx cards, I can rest easy and throw bolts, if I win by turn 4, cool, otherwise shuffle and go again.
Spirits
This a problem I have with discussing Modern bans and unbans, people often put too much faith in what Pros' say or write, without treating their opinion with a healthy bit of skepticism. Not so say all Pros are wrong, they are good players for a reason, but basing your opinion solely on what they say is foolish.
Not even among Pro players is there a concise opinion regarding SFM, almost as if people are flawed and have innate biases.
Jeff Hoogland ( I know, not the best example ) has stated BBE, Jace and SFM are fine, same with Shaheen Sorani. Brian Braun-Duin also wrote an article discussing the pros of cons of unbanning SFM.
Ari Lax is against SFM, but he also once said if they unban Bitterblossom that he'll show everyone why it was banned. Still waiting on that one, Ari Lax. Peter Ingram is staunchly against SFM, but him along with Ari Lax think Jitte is fine.
Those are just a few examples. You could sift through every pro's opinion on the subject but you'll find just as many contradictory opinions as well.
First, instead of mislabeling it as an "echo chamber" why not stand back and see if they are on to something?
Second, no card is 100% safe to unban. There is always going to be unknown factors but "A life without risk is a life not lived."
To further reiterate the first point, the reason so many people here believe SFM is safe is because she fits well within Modern's current power level. Yes, she nets you advantage upon summoning but plenty of cards legal already do that. In an increasingly fast format you need to tap out, wait a turn before deploying a 4/4 with Life Link and Vigilance; that's not really impressive given the competition.
The only sensible argument against SFM is homogeneity, but again, that is more of an unknown factor. Some of said SFM would slot into Bant Eldrazi, now Bant Spirits, and others have stated Death & Taxes wouldn't even cut Leonin Arbitor. I have recall someone saying Burn would run SFM. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
for a card like SFM to be 'too good' you would have to expect a response similar to deathrite shaman. the way modern is now, that is just extremely hard to believe.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold).) Wotc stated in the past that they don't want to unban cards that slot into Tier 1 strategies.
.) Wotc could think that it would slot into Humans, Spirits.
I'm personally not sure if Humans and Spirits would even play it. Humans could rebuild the manabase if it really wanted SFM (Mana Confluence etc.).
Over the years I have seen several disappointed people that are sad that SFM is still not unbanned. And I don't think it is reasonable to expect SFM to get unbanned.
Edit: Another argument against SFM is that it would reduce the impact of future cards. Maybe that is another reason why Wotc does not want SFM.
And, even if that day sometime comes where they really push an equipment, the decision to ban her or the equipment can be evaluated. The meta as it is, and her place on the banlist, should not be dictated by what some unforeseen future may hold. She would likely not be a problem in the meta we have now which suggests her place on the list is undeserved.
Here are a couple points to think about with SFM:
1. She goes into fair grindy midrange decks. These decks need help in Modern.
2. The best thing she does is a turn 3 4/4 vigilance life linker that's somewhat resilient to creature removal. That's really far down the list of most busted things you can do in Modern. Turn 3 Batterskull is not better than turn 3 Wurmcoil or Karn, turn 3 flip a TitI and put 2 Arclights in play, turn 2 reanimate Griselbrand and kill you, turn 3 Grapeshot for 20, turn 1 put two 4/4s into play, turn 3 loop my Pyrite Spellbomb and kill you, turn 3 attack with a 10/10 Death's Shadow and Temur Battle Rage it, turn 2 dredge 15 cards and puke 12 power into play, turn 3 make a hasted double striking Primeval Titan, etc. I think you get the picture here...
3. There is a lot more interaction for SFM in Modern than there is in Legacy. Legacy decks historically have not run artifact hate in their sideboards (although I see people are playing Abrade now). Modern has always been heavy on answers to artifacts in sideboards because of Affinity, and now because of Hardened Scales and KCI. Everyone is already running answers to Batterskull.
4. Batterskull and the Swords cycle don't see any play on their own. If these cards were already being played even without SFM I would be more concerned, but they're not. That implies that Batterskull for 5 mana is just not good enough for Modern. If your SFM gets killed before you get to untap with her, that's what you have in your hand: a card that isn't good enough to see regular Modern play anymore.
5. She does not "limit future equipment design space." WotC does not print equipment anywhere near the power level of the Swords anymore, let alone Batterskull. Equipment these days is printed for limited play only. They haven't printed anything at Standard power level in like a decade. The limitations that SFM would put on equipment power level are way outside of the space that WotC is already working in when it comes to equipment.
Or any one of the 20 or so Bolts in their deck, lol. I don't think Burn would have any problem with SFM. Trying to get up to 5 mana to cast a Batterskull is not a winning strategy against Burn (believe me, I've tried it before), and there's a roughly 0% chance your SFM survives to untap.
She doesn't really fit into any current tier 1 decks. Like you said, she doesn't fit into Humans. Her and the Batterskull don't have any synergies with the rest of the deck. As for Spirits, you start getting into the territory where you're making your CoCos worse when you're adding more non-creatures to the deck. I'm not sure it would be worth it. She doesn't fit into UW Miracles or the current Jeskai Control deck. I'm sure there would be some kind of UWx Stoneblade deck that would be built around her, but who knows if that would actually be better than the current UWx decks? And finally, I don't think "impact of future cards" thought is a good reason to keep her banned. I mean, Jace absolutely impacts the chances of future Jaces or 4 mana control walkers making their way into Modern, and WotC still unbanned him. If something is strong enough for Modern, it'll see play, whether SFM is around or not.
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW