And I will respond to your post once again stating that twin set a new floor for a diversity ban. For all we know, 15% T8 appearances could be considered a diversity violator. Before twin it was largely thought to be 20+, but it still stands that since twin (exception being Eldrazi winter), NO deck has come close to the top 8 numbers twin put up in 2015.
You can feel free to dismiss what WotC wrote all you want as you have done for the last 3 years. Just recognize that by a fairly objective measure, twin was the best thing to be doing post Pod ban until it got axed prior to Eldrazi winter.
I strongly think twin should be unbanned and so should SFM. I openly admit twin was real good, it was about 50-50 with jund, and it has received possible upgrades. I would certainly run opt over the sleight of hands I was using and I will find a place for 2 JTMS. AV I am less certain about. Their are probably other upgrades too. There is risk in unbanning twin and I don't think that can be ignored, but I think it's worth it. Most of the unbans carried risk at the time and have been proven fine after deck tuning adjustments.
We have another prominent UR deck right now because of archlight phoenix, so that may take some of twin's market share just because those decks are already built, its also very good and in the same colors.
You can feel free to dismiss what WotC wrote all you want as you have done for the last 3 years. Just recognize that by a fairly objective measure, twin was the best thing to be doing post Pod ban until it got axed prior to Eldrazi winter.
Most of the unbans carried risk at the time and have been proven fine after deck tuning adjustments.
To date, no unban has directly slotted into a tier 1 deck or rather, to date no "diversity" offender has come off the ban list. Wild Nacatl ban and eventual unban was probably the closest example, but the ban was targeting a specific archetype of decks (aggressive creature decks) in order to diversify the field OF aggressive decks. There was some aspect of this listed in the twin announcement (URx diversity), but that was only part of the "problem." Twin still has to overcome other stated reasons.
Anyone with any experience with either deck could likely draw that conclusion. As I mentioned before, it attacks on every weakness of Twin: discard, counters, removal, and a quick clock backed by things that don't die to Lightning Bolt. It's both faster and more robust than 2018 Jund, which itself is considerably more powerful than 2015 Jund.
The fear about Twin is perpetuated by myths and misinformation, as well as comparisons to decks that are orders of magnitude weaker than the current metagame. Or assumptions made by people who have never played with or against the deck (not saying you, but many on facebook, twitter, and reddit have demonstrated as much, such as "How does Spellskite even stop the combo!" and "Sudden Shock is the only way to beat a Pestermite with Twin on it!").
Regarding Jund, come on. The BBE version (aka 2018) is worse than the BBE less version, cause BBE is a bad card (hint: there is a reason why The Rock has consistently better results than Jund). Furthermore, the metagame evolved a lot since back than. Keep in mind that Olivia Voldaren and Huntmaster of the Fells were THE top end cards back than, cause they were just awesome in that metagame (minus Twin ofc). Nowadays they are hot garbage (but some very specific decks). So not only did Jund get better, but so did the other contenders. The relative power level of Jund went down however (cause the power of Jund didn't rise in the same fashion as the other decks did).
Furthermore, do not mix Jund Shadow (or even Grixis Shadow) with traditional Jund, those two are very different decks, although they look somewhat similar (huge beatsticks, discard and removal coupled with some sprinkles of card advantage)
Do not forget, that a URb Version would be (in the current metagame) way better than straight UR. The appeal of UR was mainly Blood Moon and the mana base, Blood Moon is irrelevant, the drawback of the mana base is real, however, the gains form the black splash are huge. Push, Cast Down, K-Command, Cut or Dismember are fixing the problem UR had, killing annoying big creatures for a cheap cost (no Harvest Pyre or double Bolt). Sure, straight UR has always and maybe will always suck against a Tempo style deck due to the problem of "garbage" removal of the UR Twin side. Hence, I can fully understand and agree your notion regarding the UR match-up vs those decks. However, the URb lists (not going for Tasigur btw which was imo even back in the days the wrong call) had a quite reasonable match-up in comparison, not good, nor even, but reasonable (45-55 or something along this line vs the high 30ish for the UR version).
I already agreed with ktk, but to claim Twin got all these upgrades, ignores the reality of deck space. Its like when people claim Twin would run SFM too. Or SFM would slot right into Control.
Its a nice little sound byte, but it doesnt stand up to any kind of critical thinking.
UR Twin today, would function as it did before. There is no fundamental shift at all in what it does with 'new' cards, in fact Jace would do less to change Twin, than BBE did for Jund.
The SFM notion stems from a time where the Jeskai version saw a "lot" of play (talking about 2-3% metagame share here) where SFM would be a natural fit (as in 2 off), especially in a meta it used to be, where the Aggro decks were Burn, Meerfolk, Elves and Naya CoCo. The "traditional" UR version would never want to play SFM, it clogs the deck way to much.
Also, SFM could find its place in a Control shell, just not the current version of Terminus to say it this way. In the older tap-out version it would have been golden, dunno how good it is nowadays though.
Yep, it did have a slightly better Top 8 representation, while having a much higher gross meta share than KCI.
Comparing Twin with KCI is like comparing Amulet Bloom with Eldrazie, two different decks, two different time frames, two different data set. However, both decks got a ban of some sort.
Greetings,
Kathal
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What I play or have:
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
Comparing Twin with KCI is like comparing Amulet Bloom with Eldrazie, two different decks, two different time frames, two different data set. However, both decks got a ban of some sort.
Greetings,
Kathal
Agreed for the most part. It will depend on what the stated reasons for banning KCI are, if it gets a ban. If WotC cites T8 numbers, then there will be some comparison to previous diversity bans though it would be quite lower in terms of % setting a new floor for diversity ban considerations. They could also use perhaps a combination of "battle of sideboards" and logistics (unproven at this point). This is all speculation until it gets the axe, but the Twin vs KCI comparison is potentially valid only if we consider T8 as the primary reason.
BGx also has that T1 threat and we know the numbers on that matchup as being even.
2015 Jund is both considerably less powerful than either 2018 Jund or 2018 GDS. No version of Jund plays a 1 mana Negate or a 1 mana bolt-proof threat. I will not address these differences again.
The only "considerable" upgrades BGx got is Bloodbraid, a 4 mana card. Twin has, also, many new toys that didn't exist then to toy around with.
Don't address them, that's your prerogative, but you can at least address the rest of my points that you kindly ignored.
You're ignoring their gameplans. Remanding a Goyf (a non-boltable threat) didn't nuke your graveyard, so your supposed 1 mana threat is no longer 1 mana and no longer a threat. If you're referring to Death's Shadow, it can be killed the same way Twin and other URx decks had to deal with massive Goyfs, double bolting or block with snap and bolt it. Your 1 mana negate is effective IF these threats stick and GDS runs 3 in the main. Compared to the litany of counters (or removals) Twin typically played, good luck.
You also keep glossing over the fact what the requirements for having a massive Death's Shadow is or that Twin played Roast and Dispel in the main during the end of its tenure.
Other than that, Twin was hiding Blue's (and the format's as a whole) woes with a mask of "interactivity" that was toxic to better cards entering the format via either unbannings or new printings and you people keep ignoring that.
Matt Nass is streaming at twitch right now. He is talking a lot about KCI. I asked him what does he think about a potential banning, and he said that "it's natural that the deck is going to be banned. I am not certain, but I assume that's what's going to happen".
Some folks asked him about Opal or Stirrings and he said "Diversity is why you are playing modern. if you ban one of those cards, you are deleting this aspect of the game."
He also thinks Trawler and Wellspring are interesting bannings and that's the right ban. All in all, he is admitting a ban needs to happen. Given that he is a pro who is earning money from the deck, it takes a lot of courage to admit that on camera.
tbh i think its the opposite. nass is a pro, and its about giving yourself the best chance to win with what is out there. stuff like 'fun' or what is 'good gameplay' become less important.
what really takes courage is for someone who loves playing the deck, cares about their investment in it, and doesnt have easy access to another similarly powerful deck admitting that what they are playing is probably too good, or at least harmful to the format as a whole.
as they say; the first step is acceptance. much like many twin proponents (not any here like cfp or idsurge from what ive seen) being unwilling to accept that what they really loved about the deck was that it was powerful, enough so to cover their inadequacies as a player. it took me a while, but i had one foot in that camp. the deck was real fun to play, but the knowledge that i could walk into a room, know i had one of if not THE best deck in the format, and have game against anything and everything without putting in much effort; it skewed my ability to look at the deck objectively.
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i mean i remember a mass exodus of blue players following the twin ban. all the whining and moaning about this or that. its like, did they ever stop to think that they were just bad players using twin as a crutch? nope, they were all playing 4D underwater chess while keeping the streets of modern clean from riffraff.
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I like how we went from "midrange creature decks completely suck vs terminus" to "salty jund players wanting their deck to be the best again".
Newsflash: Wanting Midrange to be able to compete in Modern does not equate to wanting Midrange to be the best archetype.
And how would that work?
Modern is a non-rotating format. Have you looked at the other non-rotating formats? There isn't much Midrange around in them. Can you play something like Jund /Naya/Abzan etc. in Legacy? Of course. It is actually a good idea? No, it isn't.
I have made a big post about Midrange in this thread quite a while ago and also made a separate thread about it so I don't want to repeat everything.
In the end Midrange is a jack of all trades, master of none archetype. It trades power for adaptability and versatility. It does multiple things but nothing really well. That's fine in Standard because the power level isn't that high to begin with and it was also fine in Modern when it was younger. But as the format grows older it grows more powerful and that's where the problem lies. Every other archetype absolutely knows what it wants to do and is focused on that and if they get to do it that will always trump everything a Midrange deck is capable of doing.
Yes actually. Midrange is actually doing just fine in legacy compared to modern. Both blue-based and otherwise. Maverick continues to find its way around. Greedy 4 color value machines like Czech pile can carve a niche just fine in legacy. Grixis control, despite its name plays very much like a midrange deck, as does stoneblade.
If anything, legacy lacks in aggro, not midrange.
Not strong enough to be at the top consistently but able to perform decently to carve out a niche for dedicated players. Is that an unreasonable expectation for midrange in modern?
Guys please opinions on japanese cards. Lost a 3/3 creature against Japan celestial colonade. This guy played all creatures and spells in english cards, but some cards in his manabase was japanese. I dont registrated this really ( my brain say its all fine and all english to me lets attack his empty board)...and i am sure it is a Kind of legal cheating. It is not ok, but i know legal. I Hate such people. I never forget colonade normally, but with this Tricks it can happen one time in 3 years and such people take advantage of this
If I am a customer spending premium amount of dollars, I expect a premium service. Jund falls into the category of a premium deck costing more dollars than a majority of the rest of the format. I'm not getting the desired performance ratio per dollars spent out of the Jund deck because WOTC decided to make the format more diverse.
And I will respond to your post once again stating that twin set a new floor for a diversity ban. For all we know, 15% T8 appearances could be considered a diversity violator. Before twin it was largely thought to be 20+, but it still stands that since twin (exception being Eldrazi winter), NO deck has come close to the top 8 numbers twin put up in 2015.
You can feel free to dismiss what WotC wrote all you want as you have done for the last 3 years. Just recognize that by a fairly objective measure, twin was the best thing to be doing post Pod ban until it got axed prior to Eldrazi winter.
As I said in the post I linked, I don't dispute THAT they said it, I just think it's a load of crap. It's also fascinating to see that the entire face of Modern was changed due to essentially four coin flips.
As far as the best deck, was it really orders of magnitude better than Affinity? Maybe it was the best, but it wasn't by much... Which is extra ironic, given how hard Twin dumpstered on Affinity.
i mean i remember a mass exodus of blue players following the twin ban. all the whining and moaning about this or that. its like, did they ever stop to think that they were just bad players using twin as a crutch? nope, they were all playing 4D underwater chess while keeping the streets of modern clean from riffraff.
I'm not going to lie and say it wasn't extremely satisfying to see opponents knowingly hold cards in their hand and not advance their board for fear of being combo killed. But this is a fairly insulting take on people who loved a deck that not only had great, interactive lines of play, but actually DID help keep linear nonsense in check, without ever killing anything outright.
Regarding Jund, come on. The BBE version (aka 2018) is worse than the BBE less version, cause BBE is a bad card (hint: there is a reason why The Rock has consistently better results than Jund). Furthermore, the metagame evolved a lot since back than. Keep in mind that Olivia Voldaren and Huntmaster of the Fells were THE top end cards back than, cause they were just awesome in that metagame (minus Twin ofc). Nowadays they are hot garbage (but some very specific decks). So not only did Jund get better, but so did the other contenders. The relative power level of Jund went down however (cause the power of Jund didn't rise in the same fashion as the other decks did).
Furthermore, do not mix Jund Shadow (or even Grixis Shadow) with traditional Jund, those two are very different decks, although they look somewhat similar (huge beatsticks, discard and removal coupled with some sprinkles of card advantage)
Nope, it does not. Fatal push and the 4 mana push snap push play, it's huge. For the record, I used to play UR Twin vs Jund. i know the matchup inside out. Recently, I played again the matchup, with me replacing terminates with pushes. Let me tell you, that the matchup has become so much better.
Sure, Push is great against Tarmogoyf, but why is that your concern right now in Modern? Tarmogoyf would be the least of my worries when building the deck.
I think I agree, Grixis Twin would be where it's at.
You also have to look at how other decks would adjust. Grixis Shadow is adjusted to THIS meta. Grixis Shadow could grind like crazy in it's old build as long as you weren't UWx.
With Shadow around, I don't feel like UR Twin would be the way to go anymore.
Grixis could afford to maybe play---2 field of ruins?
I doubt AV would be played. Jace, however, would be pretty sweet. Would you guys really play the new Ral over Keranos or Jace, though?
Wraith, a turn 2 Goyf used to be disastrous for Twin with a turn 1 to turn 3 discard. I can't imagine UR Twin being happy at the sight of Shadow.
Again, I admit that Grixis Twin would be better against stuff like GDS and Jund, but are those decks what Modern is centered around right now? No, they are not. Modern is centered around the fast linear aggro/combo decks, and the UR build is far superior against those strategies because it's much more consistent at the combo aspect of Twin. If the format began to slow down with Twin in it, and it became about grindy midrange decks again, then Grixis would probably be the way to go.
As for your second point, I might play a copy of Ral. You have 3 or 4 sideboard slots for some combination of Keranos, Jace, Ral, or AV. I would absolutely play at least 1 Keranos because he's the most resilient of those. I would almost definitely play at least 1 Jace. The 3rd or 4th would probably be a second Jace first, then either a second Keranos or a Ral. And this is why I tell people Twin wouldn't play AV, I don't want the first AV before any of those other options. Keranos, Jace, and Ral are all win conditions in addition to giving you card advantage. AV isn't.
I don't know the exact number, but I just presented a used who nearly top 8 ed the last MODO PTQ. In that list, he used 2 Field of ruin. If we want to base our saying instead of theorycrafting, that's where we should stand on.
I've gotta be honest with you, George, that dude's list is super dubious, especially his mana. He only has 14 red sources and 5(!) basic islands in a deck that wants to hit RRR on turn 5. Even with an ideal sequence on the play, with a 7 card hand, of T1: Opt, T2: Remand, T3: Snap Opt, T4: Exarch, T5: Kiki, he only has an 80% chance of seeing three red sources on 5. When you combine that with your odds of having 5 lands on 5, he only has a 66% chance of having 5 lands and triple red by turn 5 even if he digs 5 extra cards deep with cantrips. Obviously, with less ideal sequences his odds drop even further. To put that in perspective, both UR and Grixis Twin with a 7 card hand on the play and a sequence of T1: Opt, T2: Remand, T3: Exarch, T3: Twin would have a 77% chance of RR and 4 lands by turn 4, and with the same sequence as the Kiki deck I listed above, they would both have a 92% chance to have RR and 4 lands by turn 5. This dude needs to add a land to his deck and 3 red sources just to get his odds of having RRR and 5 lands on turn 5 up to 80% with that ideal sequence.
I think you guys downplay the impact of going into 3 mana, and what benefits are gained in staying in pure UR. UR was still the better Twin.
Not only does it have more consistent mana that you take less damage from, but you played more combo pieces, so you were better at the combo plan, and you were a better Blood Moon deck post-board.
Am I giving Terminus too much credit? Perhaps, but I highly doubt so. My playgroup has a very dedicated UW control player. UW control is also the archetype I have the most testing reps again. He's been playing different iterations of UW against me for close to 3 years now.
You're right that UW has been getting steady upgrades over time (Teferi, Azcanta etc that you mentioned), but Terminus is really the straw that broke the camel's back. I will stress that this is against midrange specifically. Terminus is a necessary evil to fight decks that don't pay mana to cast their creatures.
The fact that it often costs a single white mana means that counterplay options are very limited, as are the timing window for those counterplay options.
Your last statement actually agrees with me though. I can fight through the slow incremental effect of Search, I can bolt or use creature combat to take down planeswalkers. It's possible to grind through all those vs Verdict/Wrath with resilient creatures like Voice or Finks, and in the absence of those, it at least gives me a free turn to rebuild.
Terminus negates all of that, leaves nothing behind, and can be cast on my turn for a measly 2 mana, likely able to remove or counter my follow up play with open mana still on my turn. That's the difference. That's why I don't think I'm laying too much at the feet of Terminus. And the rest is exactly as you say it, untap, slam the teferi and tick up against an empty board. Game over.
If you ban Terminus, you kill UW control as an archetype. It wouldn't be able to keep up with the fast aggro/combo decks without it. If you want to beat Terminus, play counterspells. One of the side-effects of moving to Terminus is that we hurt our GDS matchup, because Verdict was a problem for them. Terminus is just a symptom of the problem with Modern, it's not the problem itself. If the format slowed down to where 4 mana wraths were viable again, and you cared about permission, UW would go back to Verdict.
I like how we went from "terminus invalidates fair midrange" to "salty jund players wanting their deck to be the best again".
Newsflash: Wanting Midrange to be able to compete in Modern does not equate to wanting Midrange to be the best archetype.
Midrange's problem isn't the Terminus decks. They're supposed to lose to those decks anyway. The problem is they don't beat the decks they're supposed to beat anymore, which are the linear aggro/combo decks. Those decks have become too brutally fast and focused for attrition and value decks to keep up with. There needs to be something that punishes those decks for choosing to ignore their opponent.
Again, I'm all for measured Twin unban arguments. But please stop stating/suggesting that TS/Decay was a significant issue for Twin. Twin was 50/50 against both Jund and Abzan in 2015.
You know I'm a big data guy, but when the data contradicts common sense like that stat you keep bringing up, it really makes me question if there are flaws in the data. Like, is this all builds of Twin, or just a specific one, because they didn't all have the same Jund matchup. Grixis was markedly better in that matchup than UR was. And yes, TS/Decay were problem cards for Twin, you can't with a straight face tell me that discard spells and uncounterable creature removal weren't good against a creature combo/control deck.
Also, as ktk is saying, Jund and Abzan were totally even, after the Keranos print. Just go Grixis and wreck that BGx's
You're definitely putting too much stock in that guy's opinion. Everyone always thinks their matchups are better than they really are. As Sheridan likes to say, subtract like 5% from whatever a person tells you their matchups are, lol.
Another thing twin defenders continue to ignore (or not care about) is that outside of the Eldrazi debacle, no other deck since twin's banning has reached the T8 prevalence that Twin achieved in 2015.
And nothing has reached the T8 prevalence that GBx Midrange had in 2015. Or that Affinity had in 2015. The underlying truth here is that the power in Modern was much more narrowly concentrated into like 5 archetypes in 2015. In 2019, with the possible exception of KCI, the power in the format is much flatter at the top. There are like 20 decks that are all close to each other in power at the top of the format. And you'll notice that the GBx decks and Affinity are still around, but no longer dominate the format like they used to, alongside Twin. I posit that it would be the same for Twin. The major reason I feel that way is that all these other archetypes that have risen in power have not done so simply because of Twin's absence, it's because they've been empowered by new cards. If you go to mtggoldfish and look at the top page of the Modern meta, every single one of the decks that are new within the last 3 years are because of cards they got that enabled their rise to power. Even some of the old guard, like Tron, Storm, and GBx have gotten new toys that have helped them stay relevant.
In other news, you guys really gotta stop posting so fast, I can't come home from work to find 6 pages I have to read through, lol
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Modern UBR Grixis Shadow UBR UR Izzet Phoenix UR UW UW Control UW GB GB Rock GB
Commander BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
I know I'm just hitting one of many things brought up, but I consider myself an average player and there's no way you'll convince me that any Twin player at the time will be 50/50 vs. me on Jund (yes, someone who has rarely, rarely played Jund). I just don't buy it. I had weeks at my LGS where I slaughtered matchups with RUG Twin, losing only to JUND or JUNK. Those decks alone made me stop running Twin because I was used to a better win rate than that.
And sure, you can say I'm a bad player and don't know the matchup, but I see it like this - Jund can resolve 2 and 3 mana spells and win this matchup. Twin literally cannot resolve anything less than a 4 mana spell (Keranos, Batterskull, Twin if they have the cohones) to win. Thoughtseize, Goyf, Liliana of the Veil, is often enough to give the Twin player a loss.
*In my opinion, if Twin was indeed 50/50 vs. GBx, then it needed to be banned waaaaay before it actually was. In reality, it was an "interesting bad" at best.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
I know I'm just hitting one of many things brought up, but I consider myself an average player and there's no way you'll convince me that any Twin player at the time will be 50/50 vs. me on Jund (yes, someone who has rarely, rarely played Jund). I just don't buy it. I had weeks at my LGS where I slaughtered matchups with RUG Twin, losing only to JUND or JUNK. Those decks alone made me stop running Twin because I was used to a better win rate than that.
And sure, you can say I'm a bad player and don't know the matchup, but I see it like this - Jund can resolve 2 and 3 mana spells and win this matchup. Twin literally cannot resolve anything less than a 4 mana spell (Keranos, Batterskull, Twin if they have the cohones) to win. Thoughtseize, Goyf, Liliana of the Veil, is often enough to give the Twin player a loss.
My personal experience matches this. We had/have fairly skilled Jund/Abzan/BG pilots locally and always gave me headaches. I could imagine that, given the data analysys from 2015, two players of average skill levels, or a sloppy Twin player vs a sloppy Jund player could be 50/50 (or favor Twin). But based on my non-existent data, and just local experience and observations, if the Jund player knows what they're doing and draws even halfway decently, it's generally a slaughter.
My friends, the data doesnt lie. Twin was 55/45 vs Jund in the MTGO Data Set. Granted, I'm just a bad player that needs my Twin crutch, but them's the facts.
Just putting in my 2 cents worth, but it is quite possible that Wizards would fear an artificial boom of twin decks in the format for if they unbanned it. There would be former players returning, and those who believe it to be an unbeatable monster all playing it, even if it is just a middle- tier 1 deck. That’s why I honestly believe that if it ever came off the list it would be with multiple other cards (sfm, GSZ) or a Deceiver Exarch ban to power it down.
There's always going to be an artificial boom when a card comes off the ban list. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm fairly certain even Thopter Sword saw a boom when it was released, and people were fairly certain that it was going to do literally nothing in Modern. If Wizards were going to ban cards out of decks that would use unbanned cards, we would have seen something hit out of Lantern Control when Sword of the Meek was unbanned(silly I know but Wizards did think Lantern was going to use it) or something from Jund/Blue Control when BBE and Jace were unbanned. Ultimately, any high-profile card being unbanned is going to see a great deal of use from the get-go for no other reason than because it's a new tool. There would be no reason to treat Twin any differently than BBE and Jace in this regard
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Decks
Modern: UWUW Control UBRGrixis Shadow URIzzet Phoenix
I went to the wayback machine and found the old Modern matchup analysis MTGGoldfish used to post before WotC gave them a cease and desist. Here were the matchups for Twin they had:
I believe the Tron number is from before Ulamog, though. These numbers mostly line up with my anecdotal feelings. I could see Jund and Abzan being closer to 50% than people think, but there's no way Twin was actually favored. However, I could see Grixis Twin possibly being favored there. Grixis Control was definitely miserable, that deck came into existence because it beat Twin. UR Twin's overall MWP was 53.6%.
Just another piece of evidence for people as to why Twin shouldn't have been banned in the first place: it wasn't the deck with the highest win percentage. It only had the 11th highest win rate. The decks with the highest win rate were the early builds of Bant Company (with an N of 584), and the early builds of Suicide Zoo (with an N of 538). Both of them had MWPs over 57%.
And to further comment on the builds of Twin, Grixis Twin's MWP was 50.6%, they don't have TarmoTwin listed, but Temur Delver was 46.46%, and finally Jeskai Twin was 38.65% with an N of 564 matches, LOL.
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Modern UBR Grixis Shadow UBR UR Izzet Phoenix UR UW UW Control UW GB GB Rock GB
Commander BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
These are some statistics that I can come very close to getting behind. I still believe Twin to be way more favored in the Infect AND Bogles matchups, but I can agree with something close to each of the other matchups. I do think it's a bit sad that Twin won nearly 49% vs. GBx. I think this shows the disparity in the play skill level between the pilots of each of these decks.
I realize that Tarmo Twin wasn't one of the most played versions of the deck. It was the one that I tried the most myself, being motivated by Patrick Dickmann and Todd Anderson. As for UR Twin, I played 2 tournaments and had polarized results, so I can't say that much from that perspective. (5-0-1 and 2-4) Grixis Twin was never one I tried, but I saw the raw power of the deck many times, including an SCG Classic where Andrew Tenjum on Grixis Twin beat me in the top 4 before the Affinity player scooped to him in the finals.
I don't think it's about what deck has the highest win percentage. I think that when many Pro Players play a specific deck for extended periods of time, it will always stand a chance of being banned. That's it.
*I should point out that Grixis Control came to existence because it beat Twin AND it beat GBx. That's a good spot to be in - beat the best deck and the deck that beats the best deck.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
I like how we went from "midrange creature decks completely suck vs terminus" to "salty jund players wanting their deck to be the best again".
Newsflash: Wanting Midrange to be able to compete in Modern does not equate to wanting Midrange to be the best archetype.
And how would that work?
Modern is a non-rotating format. Have you looked at the other non-rotating formats? There isn't much Midrange around in them. Can you play something like Jund /Naya/Abzan etc. in Legacy? Of course. It is actually a good idea? No, it isn't.
I have made a big post about Midrange in this thread quite a while ago and also made a separate thread about it so I don't want to repeat everything.
In the end Midrange is a jack of all trades, master of none archetype. It trades power for adaptability and versatility. It does multiple things but nothing really well. That's fine in Standard because the power level isn't that high to begin with and it was also fine in Modern when it was younger. But as the format grows older it grows more powerful and that's where the problem lies. Every other archetype absolutely knows what it wants to do and is focused on that and if they get to do it that will always trump everything a Midrange deck is capable of doing.
Yes actually. Midrange is actually doing just fine in legacy compared to modern. Both blue-based and otherwise. Maverick continues to find its way around. Greedy 4 color value machines like Czech pile can carve a niche just fine in legacy. Grixis control, despite its name plays very much like a midrange deck, as does stoneblade.
If anything, legacy lacks in aggro, not midrange.
Not strong enough to be at the top consistently but able to perform decently to carve out a niche for dedicated players. Is that an unreasonable expectation for midrange in modern?
I would say that it already is that way but obviously that requires an exact definition to actually measure things. If we look at tournament results we often see at least some number of Midrange decks in them. Maybe they haven't won, maybe they didn't even make top 8 but they were in the upper echelons of a tournament. There is also the issue of defining the Death's Shadow decks because if you define them as Midrange as it is on this site for example then things look even better.
I assume that is not good enough for you so how much more should it be in your opinion?
Hey, guys, what about unbanning all cards?
I don't really see any difference from what linear deck to die on t3. I mean, no matter what you ban or unban modern will still be about linear t3 decks, most of them which are interactive.
Yeah, the Bogles and Infect numbers surprised me too, but I thought back on the Bogles player from my LGS, and I could see it. If I had the combo ready on turn 4 and he tapped out or didn't have the Path, I won, but in the 4/5ths of games where I didn't have the combo ready on turn 4, or he played more conservatively and kept up Path, I would often lose. As for Infect, one of my friends plays it and I beat him more often than not, but I'm a better player than him (not bragging, he just doesn't play much).
I think part of the Twin vs. Jund perception for us ex-Twin players is how bad game 1 was for us. We were almost never going into sideboard games up a game. It got much better for us post-board, though, and I wouldn't be surprised if we were decent favorites in post-board games. We brought in more answers to Tarmogoyf, more card advantage, and a finisher that they had no way to deal with outside of hitting it with a Thoughtseize (Keranos).
And yea, your point about what the pros play is spot on. I've said for a long time that Twin was actually overplayed, and especially by very good pros like BBD, Dickmann, Anderson, PVDDR, Maynard, Cheon, and Pardee. The bottom line is that the deck was fun to play, it was the only competitive choice if you wanted a reactive blue deck, and it was a deck with a high skill ceiling, where pros could leverage their superior skill to get more out of it. All of that led to it probably being more popular than its actual strength was.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern UBR Grixis Shadow UBR UR Izzet Phoenix UR UW UW Control UW GB GB Rock GB
Commander BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
Yeah, the Bogles and Infect numbers surprised me too, but I thought back on the Bogles player from my LGS, and I could see it. If I had the combo ready on turn 4 and he tapped out or didn't have the Path, I won, but in the 4/5ths of games where I didn't have the combo ready on turn 4, or he played more conservatively and kept up Path, I would often lose. As for Infect, one of my friends plays it and I beat him more often than not, but I'm a better player than him (not bragging, he just doesn't play much).
I think part of the Twin vs. Jund perception for us ex-Twin players is how bad game 1 was for us. We were almost never going into sideboard games up a game. It got much better for us post-board, though, and I wouldn't be surprised if we were decent favorites in post-board games. We brought in more answers to Tarmogoyf, more card advantage, and a finisher that they had no way to deal with outside of hitting it with a Thoughtseize (Keranos).
And yea, your point about what the pros play is spot on. I've said for a long time that Twin was actually overplayed, and especially by very good pros like BBD, Dickmann, Anderson, PVDDR, Maynard, Cheon, and Pardee. The bottom line is that the deck was fun to play, it was the only competitive choice if you wanted a reactive blue deck, and it was a deck with a high skill ceiling, where pros could leverage their superior skill to get more out of it. All of that led to it probably being more popular than its actual strength was.
My experience on Bogles vs. Twin was mostly from the Bogles side. I would put a clock on Twin to the point where they would be forced to "go for it" or die next turn with it in their hand. Since there were only 3-4 Path to Exile from me, it was quite often when I didn't have it and was just bluffing. It even got to the point where if I could, I would make it look like I don't have lethal next turn. Then I would jam, but that could also backfire. Cryptic Commands into Splinter Twin to win was not uncommon, Path to Exile literally being the only thing they cared about. Dispel also made this very tough, as Twin players mostly DID have it when needed. Also a huge part of Twin winning here was that Bogles didn't have too many lands, so 2 lands on turn 4 were not uncommon. This matchup was one in which I left fetchlands uncracked more than any other matchup I've ever played in Modern. I had to play around tap effects like a mofo.
With Jund vs. Twin, the main problem to me for Twin is that they literally needed 4-6 lands to have a chance. Jund could be stuck on 3 lands, Seizing and Inquisitioning every important card from Twin's hand while a Tarmogoyf smashes their face in (with the added angle of Liliana of the Veil). The Twin player never wanted to have the Keranos in their opener and never wanted to draw it before they had 5 mana in play. Relying on drawing a 1 or 2 of at most when you have 5 mana in play is not where I wanna be in Modern, even with a powerhouse like Twin.
Here's where many people will disagree with me. In my honest opinion, Pro Players could literally play Merfolk in droves and something would need to be banned. Better players win more often, even if it's not amplified much in Modern.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
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You can feel free to dismiss what WotC wrote all you want as you have done for the last 3 years. Just recognize that by a fairly objective measure, twin was the best thing to be doing post Pod ban until it got axed prior to Eldrazi winter.
We have another prominent UR deck right now because of archlight phoenix, so that may take some of twin's market share just because those decks are already built, its also very good and in the same colors.
I think thats a pretty fair statement.
Spirits
To date, no unban has directly slotted into a tier 1 deck or rather, to date no "diversity" offender has come off the ban list. Wild Nacatl ban and eventual unban was probably the closest example, but the ban was targeting a specific archetype of decks (aggressive creature decks) in order to diversify the field OF aggressive decks. There was some aspect of this listed in the twin announcement (URx diversity), but that was only part of the "problem." Twin still has to overcome other stated reasons.
Regarding Jund, come on. The BBE version (aka 2018) is worse than the BBE less version, cause BBE is a bad card (hint: there is a reason why The Rock has consistently better results than Jund). Furthermore, the metagame evolved a lot since back than. Keep in mind that Olivia Voldaren and Huntmaster of the Fells were THE top end cards back than, cause they were just awesome in that metagame (minus Twin ofc). Nowadays they are hot garbage (but some very specific decks). So not only did Jund get better, but so did the other contenders. The relative power level of Jund went down however (cause the power of Jund didn't rise in the same fashion as the other decks did).
Furthermore, do not mix Jund Shadow (or even Grixis Shadow) with traditional Jund, those two are very different decks, although they look somewhat similar (huge beatsticks, discard and removal coupled with some sprinkles of card advantage)
Do not forget, that a URb Version would be (in the current metagame) way better than straight UR. The appeal of UR was mainly Blood Moon and the mana base, Blood Moon is irrelevant, the drawback of the mana base is real, however, the gains form the black splash are huge. Push, Cast Down, K-Command, Cut or Dismember are fixing the problem UR had, killing annoying big creatures for a cheap cost (no Harvest Pyre or double Bolt). Sure, straight UR has always and maybe will always suck against a Tempo style deck due to the problem of "garbage" removal of the UR Twin side. Hence, I can fully understand and agree your notion regarding the UR match-up vs those decks. However, the URb lists (not going for Tasigur btw which was imo even back in the days the wrong call) had a quite reasonable match-up in comparison, not good, nor even, but reasonable (45-55 or something along this line vs the high 30ish for the UR version).
The SFM notion stems from a time where the Jeskai version saw a "lot" of play (talking about 2-3% metagame share here) where SFM would be a natural fit (as in 2 off), especially in a meta it used to be, where the Aggro decks were Burn, Meerfolk, Elves and Naya CoCo. The "traditional" UR version would never want to play SFM, it clogs the deck way to much.
Also, SFM could find its place in a Control shell, just not the current version of Terminus to say it this way. In the older tap-out version it would have been golden, dunno how good it is nowadays though.
Comparing Twin with KCI is like comparing Amulet Bloom with Eldrazie, two different decks, two different time frames, two different data set. However, both decks got a ban of some sort.
Greetings,
Kathal
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
Agreed for the most part. It will depend on what the stated reasons for banning KCI are, if it gets a ban. If WotC cites T8 numbers, then there will be some comparison to previous diversity bans though it would be quite lower in terms of % setting a new floor for diversity ban considerations. They could also use perhaps a combination of "battle of sideboards" and logistics (unproven at this point). This is all speculation until it gets the axe, but the Twin vs KCI comparison is potentially valid only if we consider T8 as the primary reason.
The only "considerable" upgrades BGx got is Bloodbraid, a 4 mana card. Twin has, also, many new toys that didn't exist then to toy around with.
Don't address them, that's your prerogative, but you can at least address the rest of my points that you kindly ignored.
You're ignoring their gameplans. Remanding a Goyf (a non-boltable threat) didn't nuke your graveyard, so your supposed 1 mana threat is no longer 1 mana and no longer a threat. If you're referring to Death's Shadow, it can be killed the same way Twin and other URx decks had to deal with massive Goyfs, double bolting or block with snap and bolt it. Your 1 mana negate is effective IF these threats stick and GDS runs 3 in the main. Compared to the litany of counters (or removals) Twin typically played, good luck.
You also keep glossing over the fact what the requirements for having a massive Death's Shadow is or that Twin played Roast and Dispel in the main during the end of its tenure.
Other than that, Twin was hiding Blue's (and the format's as a whole) woes with a mask of "interactivity" that was toxic to better cards entering the format via either unbannings or new printings and you people keep ignoring that.
tbh i think its the opposite. nass is a pro, and its about giving yourself the best chance to win with what is out there. stuff like 'fun' or what is 'good gameplay' become less important.
what really takes courage is for someone who loves playing the deck, cares about their investment in it, and doesnt have easy access to another similarly powerful deck admitting that what they are playing is probably too good, or at least harmful to the format as a whole.
as they say; the first step is acceptance. much like many twin proponents (not any here like cfp or idsurge from what ive seen) being unwilling to accept that what they really loved about the deck was that it was powerful, enough so to cover their inadequacies as a player. it took me a while, but i had one foot in that camp. the deck was real fun to play, but the knowledge that i could walk into a room, know i had one of if not THE best deck in the format, and have game against anything and everything without putting in much effort; it skewed my ability to look at the deck objectively.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Hey, I'm on record saying it was the best deck at the time.
Spirits
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)The marvel's of the State of Modern.
Spirits
Yes actually. Midrange is actually doing just fine in legacy compared to modern. Both blue-based and otherwise. Maverick continues to find its way around. Greedy 4 color value machines like Czech pile can carve a niche just fine in legacy. Grixis control, despite its name plays very much like a midrange deck, as does stoneblade.
If anything, legacy lacks in aggro, not midrange.
Not strong enough to be at the top consistently but able to perform decently to carve out a niche for dedicated players. Is that an unreasonable expectation for midrange in modern?
As far as the best deck, was it really orders of magnitude better than Affinity? Maybe it was the best, but it wasn't by much... Which is extra ironic, given how hard Twin dumpstered on Affinity.
I'm not going to lie and say it wasn't extremely satisfying to see opponents knowingly hold cards in their hand and not advance their board for fear of being combo killed. But this is a fairly insulting take on people who loved a deck that not only had great, interactive lines of play, but actually DID help keep linear nonsense in check, without ever killing anything outright.
Fatal Push, Liliana, the Last Hope, Collective Brutality, Tireless Tracker, Assassin's Trophy, Damping Sphere aren't upgrades? Even without BBE, the BGx core is objectively more powerful than it was in 2015. Some lists are even running Chandra, Torch of Defiance!
Cool? I never once mentioned Jund Shadow.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Again, I admit that Grixis Twin would be better against stuff like GDS and Jund, but are those decks what Modern is centered around right now? No, they are not. Modern is centered around the fast linear aggro/combo decks, and the UR build is far superior against those strategies because it's much more consistent at the combo aspect of Twin. If the format began to slow down with Twin in it, and it became about grindy midrange decks again, then Grixis would probably be the way to go.
As for your second point, I might play a copy of Ral. You have 3 or 4 sideboard slots for some combination of Keranos, Jace, Ral, or AV. I would absolutely play at least 1 Keranos because he's the most resilient of those. I would almost definitely play at least 1 Jace. The 3rd or 4th would probably be a second Jace first, then either a second Keranos or a Ral. And this is why I tell people Twin wouldn't play AV, I don't want the first AV before any of those other options. Keranos, Jace, and Ral are all win conditions in addition to giving you card advantage. AV isn't.
I've gotta be honest with you, George, that dude's list is super dubious, especially his mana. He only has 14 red sources and 5(!) basic islands in a deck that wants to hit RRR on turn 5. Even with an ideal sequence on the play, with a 7 card hand, of T1: Opt, T2: Remand, T3: Snap Opt, T4: Exarch, T5: Kiki, he only has an 80% chance of seeing three red sources on 5. When you combine that with your odds of having 5 lands on 5, he only has a 66% chance of having 5 lands and triple red by turn 5 even if he digs 5 extra cards deep with cantrips. Obviously, with less ideal sequences his odds drop even further. To put that in perspective, both UR and Grixis Twin with a 7 card hand on the play and a sequence of T1: Opt, T2: Remand, T3: Exarch, T3: Twin would have a 77% chance of RR and 4 lands by turn 4, and with the same sequence as the Kiki deck I listed above, they would both have a 92% chance to have RR and 4 lands by turn 5. This dude needs to add a land to his deck and 3 red sources just to get his odds of having RRR and 5 lands on turn 5 up to 80% with that ideal sequence.
Not only does it have more consistent mana that you take less damage from, but you played more combo pieces, so you were better at the combo plan, and you were a better Blood Moon deck post-board.
If you ban Terminus, you kill UW control as an archetype. It wouldn't be able to keep up with the fast aggro/combo decks without it. If you want to beat Terminus, play counterspells. One of the side-effects of moving to Terminus is that we hurt our GDS matchup, because Verdict was a problem for them. Terminus is just a symptom of the problem with Modern, it's not the problem itself. If the format slowed down to where 4 mana wraths were viable again, and you cared about permission, UW would go back to Verdict.
Midrange's problem isn't the Terminus decks. They're supposed to lose to those decks anyway. The problem is they don't beat the decks they're supposed to beat anymore, which are the linear aggro/combo decks. Those decks have become too brutally fast and focused for attrition and value decks to keep up with. There needs to be something that punishes those decks for choosing to ignore their opponent.
You know I'm a big data guy, but when the data contradicts common sense like that stat you keep bringing up, it really makes me question if there are flaws in the data. Like, is this all builds of Twin, or just a specific one, because they didn't all have the same Jund matchup. Grixis was markedly better in that matchup than UR was. And yes, TS/Decay were problem cards for Twin, you can't with a straight face tell me that discard spells and uncounterable creature removal weren't good against a creature combo/control deck.
You're definitely putting too much stock in that guy's opinion. Everyone always thinks their matchups are better than they really are. As Sheridan likes to say, subtract like 5% from whatever a person tells you their matchups are, lol.
We wouldn't play AV for reasons I've outlined above.
And nothing has reached the T8 prevalence that GBx Midrange had in 2015. Or that Affinity had in 2015. The underlying truth here is that the power in Modern was much more narrowly concentrated into like 5 archetypes in 2015. In 2019, with the possible exception of KCI, the power in the format is much flatter at the top. There are like 20 decks that are all close to each other in power at the top of the format. And you'll notice that the GBx decks and Affinity are still around, but no longer dominate the format like they used to, alongside Twin. I posit that it would be the same for Twin. The major reason I feel that way is that all these other archetypes that have risen in power have not done so simply because of Twin's absence, it's because they've been empowered by new cards. If you go to mtggoldfish and look at the top page of the Modern meta, every single one of the decks that are new within the last 3 years are because of cards they got that enabled their rise to power. Even some of the old guard, like Tron, Storm, and GBx have gotten new toys that have helped them stay relevant.
In other news, you guys really gotta stop posting so fast, I can't come home from work to find 6 pages I have to read through, lol
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
And sure, you can say I'm a bad player and don't know the matchup, but I see it like this - Jund can resolve 2 and 3 mana spells and win this matchup. Twin literally cannot resolve anything less than a 4 mana spell (Keranos, Batterskull, Twin if they have the cohones) to win. Thoughtseize, Goyf, Liliana of the Veil, is often enough to give the Twin player a loss.
*In my opinion, if Twin was indeed 50/50 vs. GBx, then it needed to be banned waaaaay before it actually was. In reality, it was an "interesting bad" at best.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Spirits
StandardArena:U/R Drakes
Modern
URStormUR
UBRDeath's ShadowUBR
Modern:
UWUW Control
UBRGrixis Shadow
URIzzet Phoenix
Affinity - 63.16%
Amulet Bloom - 60%
GR Tron - 56.76%
RUG Scapeshift - 52.17%
Abzan - 49.23%
Jund - 48.28%
Merfolk - 45.95%
Bogles - 45.71%
Infect - 43.59%
Grixis Control - 41%
I believe the Tron number is from before Ulamog, though. These numbers mostly line up with my anecdotal feelings. I could see Jund and Abzan being closer to 50% than people think, but there's no way Twin was actually favored. However, I could see Grixis Twin possibly being favored there. Grixis Control was definitely miserable, that deck came into existence because it beat Twin. UR Twin's overall MWP was 53.6%.
Just another piece of evidence for people as to why Twin shouldn't have been banned in the first place: it wasn't the deck with the highest win percentage. It only had the 11th highest win rate. The decks with the highest win rate were the early builds of Bant Company (with an N of 584), and the early builds of Suicide Zoo (with an N of 538). Both of them had MWPs over 57%.
And to further comment on the builds of Twin, Grixis Twin's MWP was 50.6%, they don't have TarmoTwin listed, but Temur Delver was 46.46%, and finally Jeskai Twin was 38.65% with an N of 564 matches, LOL.
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
I realize that Tarmo Twin wasn't one of the most played versions of the deck. It was the one that I tried the most myself, being motivated by Patrick Dickmann and Todd Anderson. As for UR Twin, I played 2 tournaments and had polarized results, so I can't say that much from that perspective. (5-0-1 and 2-4) Grixis Twin was never one I tried, but I saw the raw power of the deck many times, including an SCG Classic where Andrew Tenjum on Grixis Twin beat me in the top 4 before the Affinity player scooped to him in the finals.
I don't think it's about what deck has the highest win percentage. I think that when many Pro Players play a specific deck for extended periods of time, it will always stand a chance of being banned. That's it.
*I should point out that Grixis Control came to existence because it beat Twin AND it beat GBx. That's a good spot to be in - beat the best deck and the deck that beats the best deck.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)I would say that it already is that way but obviously that requires an exact definition to actually measure things. If we look at tournament results we often see at least some number of Midrange decks in them. Maybe they haven't won, maybe they didn't even make top 8 but they were in the upper echelons of a tournament. There is also the issue of defining the Death's Shadow decks because if you define them as Midrange as it is on this site for example then things look even better.
I assume that is not good enough for you so how much more should it be in your opinion?
I don't really see any difference from what linear deck to die on t3. I mean, no matter what you ban or unban modern will still be about linear t3 decks, most of them which are interactive.
I think part of the Twin vs. Jund perception for us ex-Twin players is how bad game 1 was for us. We were almost never going into sideboard games up a game. It got much better for us post-board, though, and I wouldn't be surprised if we were decent favorites in post-board games. We brought in more answers to Tarmogoyf, more card advantage, and a finisher that they had no way to deal with outside of hitting it with a Thoughtseize (Keranos).
And yea, your point about what the pros play is spot on. I've said for a long time that Twin was actually overplayed, and especially by very good pros like BBD, Dickmann, Anderson, PVDDR, Maynard, Cheon, and Pardee. The bottom line is that the deck was fun to play, it was the only competitive choice if you wanted a reactive blue deck, and it was a deck with a high skill ceiling, where pros could leverage their superior skill to get more out of it. All of that led to it probably being more popular than its actual strength was.
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
My experience on Bogles vs. Twin was mostly from the Bogles side. I would put a clock on Twin to the point where they would be forced to "go for it" or die next turn with it in their hand. Since there were only 3-4 Path to Exile from me, it was quite often when I didn't have it and was just bluffing. It even got to the point where if I could, I would make it look like I don't have lethal next turn. Then I would jam, but that could also backfire. Cryptic Commands into Splinter Twin to win was not uncommon, Path to Exile literally being the only thing they cared about. Dispel also made this very tough, as Twin players mostly DID have it when needed. Also a huge part of Twin winning here was that Bogles didn't have too many lands, so 2 lands on turn 4 were not uncommon. This matchup was one in which I left fetchlands uncracked more than any other matchup I've ever played in Modern. I had to play around tap effects like a mofo.
With Jund vs. Twin, the main problem to me for Twin is that they literally needed 4-6 lands to have a chance. Jund could be stuck on 3 lands, Seizing and Inquisitioning every important card from Twin's hand while a Tarmogoyf smashes their face in (with the added angle of Liliana of the Veil). The Twin player never wanted to have the Keranos in their opener and never wanted to draw it before they had 5 mana in play. Relying on drawing a 1 or 2 of at most when you have 5 mana in play is not where I wanna be in Modern, even with a powerhouse like Twin.
Here's where many people will disagree with me. In my honest opinion, Pro Players could literally play Merfolk in droves and something would need to be banned. Better players win more often, even if it's not amplified much in Modern.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)