2 GPs this year had more than one humans in the top 8, and one of them was GP hong kong
. GP Sydney (team) was 3 and even pro Tour 2
team events and the pro tour arent indicative of deck strength because overall performance is determined by factors other than how much a deck actually wins.
its clear your concern is about humans being too good, or you think its too good and are trying to make a case as such. using team events or the pro-tour isnt going to do that.
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And what do you think which deck has most top 16 or top 8 results in the last months? It is really not New humans is the best deck. Humans is now leader ( maybe kitchenfinks has more data). AS tron was with this results, all talked about stirrings. Humans has to much 50% matches ..most of them slightly favored p.s by the way. He sad no GP with 3 humans and i correct this only. GP Sydney was a GP
Yeah, but even then you need worse match ups...at the moment cannot See this worse match ups for human. Even against mardu it seems favored if we look data and people still think its mardu. UW? Still humans...where are Bad match ups?
Why does it need to have a bad match up? If anything, UWr (Miracles) could be it. I doubt you want me to go into it too much but its bound to happen with Wizards current design, that a critical mass will build up. It took 1 Lord to make Spirits a thing, and Humans will ALWAYS be printed. Set after set after set.
People like to turn em sideways, thats just how it is.
Yeah, but even then you need worse match ups...at the moment cannot See this worse match ups for human. Even against mardu it seems favored if we look data and people still think its mardu. UW? Still humans...where are Bad match ups?
KCI and Tron are both unfavorable matchups for humans.
Only sideways is fine, but bodies with come into play effects are a Problem like it was in tron. Ok no cast effect, but with vial and cavern in playset the same. Without Bad match ups you are to gold, EACH deck must have this. Which important Decks beat humans? If we cant answer this, it means we have maybe a Problem
Yeah, but even then you need worse match ups...at the moment cannot See this worse match ups for human. Even against mardu it seems favored if we look data and people still think its mardu. UW? Still humans...where are Bad match ups?
KCI and Tron are both unfavorable matchups for humans.
Don't remember the KCI matchup, but can confirm in the large MWP dataset, Humans is very unfavored against Tron. It's at least 45-55 and probably 40-60.
Yeah, but even then you need worse match ups...at the moment cannot See this worse match ups for human. Even against mardu it seems favored if we look data and people still think its mardu. UW? Still humans...where are Bad match ups?
KCI and Tron are both unfavorable matchups for humans.
i hope this is true and i hope for data. Maybe we have some? Future of tron and kci seems after printing New Hate cards like decay 2.0 and field not good, so humans predator (if its true) will be weaker...means More and More humans. Time for back to lorwyn, lol
Don't remember the KCI matchup, but can confirm in the large MWP dataset, Humans is very unfavored against Tron. It's at least 45-55 and probably 40-60.
In the data I had from when it first got posted (I think you've updated it since then?) it was 45.2% against Tron and KCI was 43.3%. Other under 50% matchups in that data were Counters Company at 49.9%, Hollow One at 48.2%, Titanshift at 49.5%, and UWx Control at 48.8%
Yeah, but even then you need worse match ups...at the moment cannot See this worse match ups for human. Even against mardu it seems favored if we look data and people still think its mardu. UW? Still humans...where are Bad match ups?
KCI and Tron are both unfavorable matchups for humans.
Don't remember the KCI matchup, but can confirm in the large MWP dataset, Humans is very unfavored against Tron. It's at least 45-55 and probably 40-60.
THX, this is what i need ( and humans to surveive). But tron seems on the way down soon and this could be dangerous to humans
If Jund and Abzan return, they'll eat Humans alive. Bontu's/Damnation/Settle and oodles of single-target removal always shut down Tribal decks that don't have enough value engines.
Dont believe this. It seems Bad match ups for humans are not Decks with lot of removal...it seems unfair Decks. I heared living end is Bad for humans too...only kill or Dodge meddling mage and careful vs. Thalia slowing 1 turn P.S eddit: i am not sure if this is true, firebooter is dangerous too after i thinked about. Maybe friend of me playing living end is wrong
Yeah, its as ktk say's, if you think you have a good match up, subtract 5% from it, and check again. 1 for 1 removal is not sufficient, especially if Freebooter and Meddling Mage come into play.
Don't remember the KCI matchup, but can confirm in the large MWP dataset, Humans is very unfavored against Tron. It's at least 45-55 and probably 40-60.
In the data I had from when it first got posted (I think you've updated it since then?) it was 45.2% against Tron and KCI was 43.3%. Other under 50% matchups in that data were Counters Company at 49.9%, Hollow One at 48.2%, Titanshift at 49.5%, and UWx Control at 48.8%
That's pretty embarrassing that Counters Company and Titanshift only beat Humans a little more than 50% of the time. Although my dataset is not super high (probably 20 matches for Titanshift and 10 for Company), I have absolutely CRUSHED these matchups. Titanshift games themselves are a bit closer, but the Company ones are usually not close at all. For what it's worth, outside of playing those matches, I have also tested the matchups enough to be all right with how I view the matchup. If someone showed me something new about the matchup(s), I'd take it into consideration.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
There were several periods in modern, where there was no "best" deck, most notably the time around Born of the Gods, with Jund, UWR, Pod, Burn (due to the fresh printing of Eidolon), Tron and Twin being THE decks to beat, but not a single one of those decks were the best one out there. Affinity was also dropping in and out of that "league" in that time period.
However, everything changed when KTK got released
(btw. not arguing if any deck currently is or is not the best deck of the format, just thinking out loud).
Greetings,
Kathal
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What I play or have:
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
humans is just the perceived best deck, and it isnt so by a significant margin. it just happens to check a lot of boxes that people are looking for. proactive, has play to it, rolls over stumbling opponents, is 'fair' so people can feel smug about themselves, and doesnt get hosed by many things.
that said, you just have to ask yourself if there are good reasons to play decks within the 'top tier' (however you define it) that isn't humans. the answer is a resounding yes.
if action is ever taken against humans by wotc, it will be because humans got a new card and pulls away from the pack, or it will be under false pretenses to shake up the format. in the here and now though, nothing 'too good' is going on.
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There were several periods in modern, where there was no "best" deck, most notably the time around Born of the Gods, with Jund, UWR, Pod, Burn (due to the fresh printing of Eidolon), Tron and Twin being THE decks to beat, but not a single one of those decks were the best one out there. Affinity was also dropping in and out of that "league" in that time period.
However, everything changed when KTK got released
(btw. not arguing if any deck currently is or is not the best deck of the format, just thinking out loud).
Greetings,
Kathal
Yes, because statistically there was a best deck at that time. If that is the window of our last MTGO extract, that deck was Twin.
Yeah, its as ktk say's, if you think you have a good match up, subtract 5% from it, and check again. 1 for 1 removal is not sufficient, especially if Freebooter and Meddling Mage come into play.
Yep, this this this. Hopefully everyone in the thread internalizes this, and I wish I could post it to every thread in the forum and discussion on Reddit. Humans is 52% MWP overall and tends to perform about 5% better in every matchup. If one thinks they have a positive Humans matchup, it's probably even. If one thinks they have a very favorable Humans matchup, it's probably no better than 45-55. If one thinks they have a bad Humans matchup, it's probably even worse than they think at 40-60. That said, both KCI and Tron do have good Humans matchups.
that is probably true for most matchup evaluations one way or another. mostly because people are notoriously bad (myself included) at evaluating their own skill level and the skill level of their opponents.
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that is probably true for most matchup evaluations one way or another. mostly because people are notoriously bad (myself included) at evaluating their own skill level and the skill level of their opponents.
That's mostly true, especially with skill evaluations. Notably, people report, probably honestly, 70%+ MWP on MTGO with their pet decks. I absolutely buy that for most content creators. But the best pros in the world hover in the low-to-mid 60% MWP. Some have format MWP in the high 50s and there's no single deck in either the large N 2015 or 2018 datasets that has 60%+ MWP. That said, there ARE matchups that are 30-70, such as Twin Affinity and Ad Naus Infect. So if someone is estimating their deck MWP or player MWP outside of that 40-60 band, call me skeptical. And if they are pegging a matchup outside that range, it better be really exceptional.
Same for me. On GW Company, I have not lost a single match to humans yet in a tournament setting (about 6? matches) and during testing my record is about 13 - 4 in matches, despite me playing the knights version and not abzan with finks which should have an even better game. Sure, it is a very small and probably biased N, but if it helps I also never felt as if those games were especially close or tough. In my experience, for humans to win that matchup they have to draw the perfect ratio of aggro and disruption. Too much aggro -> they lose to combo, too much disruption -> they fail to put you on the clock and lose to value over time. Whereas for GW most solid draws with an early mana dork are pretty much ok.
The 49.9% for humans is very surprising and I am asking myself the same questions as to where my assessment of the matchup might be wrong.
I should also clarify that my matches AND testing have both been with GW Knight Company and Abzan Company as well. I just lumped them together because it seems that "Company" has been lumped together, at least the Druid/Vizzy versions.
Tronix had it right in the post above; Humans is just a really strong deck, maybe even the best deck by a small fraction. It's not a problem. In my opinion, I have it like this:
1. KCI
2. UW Control
3. Humans
4. Hardened Scales
5. Counters Company/Bant Spirits
4 and 5 are interchangeable... (just my opinion of course) (I did also fail in 8 PPTQs this season, so I saw a lot!)
*In my opinion, the only perceived problem is that KCI is #1. A Combo deck cannot be allowed to be the best deck in Modern, even if by a small margin. (I do realize that 1 survived for quite a long time, but outside of that...)
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Agree on KCI, but not because I dislike combo (especially combo that takes until Turn 4 average to win), but because of how it abuses Mana Abilities to defeat what should be good counters to it. Its resiliency is what makes me unhappy with it being a Deck To Beat, personally.
I would love to know how Skred Red does against Humans; every match I ever played with that deck against Tribal decks was absurdly one-sided, haha.
In my opinion, people are always going to think of excuses to hate on Combo decks. Combo decks need some resilience or else they just fold too easily and are not worth playing by any stretch of the imagination.
Skred Red does terribly good vs. Humans. I have a friend who runs it and claims to nearly beat Humans every time, which I feel is a bit of an exaggeration.
*Looks like my Combo side came out in that first comment, lol.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
In my opinion, people are always going to think of excuses to hate on Combo decks. Combo decks need some resilience or else they just fold too easily and are not worth playing by any stretch of the imagination.
I agree, but I think there's only a very thin zone of "resilient enough to be playable" and on either side of that are gulfs of "trash" and "broken".
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Well, I can saw a woman in two, but you won't wanna look in the box when I'm through.
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team events and the pro tour arent indicative of deck strength because overall performance is determined by factors other than how much a deck actually wins.
its clear your concern is about humans being too good, or you think its too good and are trying to make a case as such. using team events or the pro-tour isnt going to do that.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Spirits
People like to turn em sideways, thats just how it is.
Spirits
KCI and Tron are both unfavorable matchups for humans.
Don't remember the KCI matchup, but can confirm in the large MWP dataset, Humans is very unfavored against Tron. It's at least 45-55 and probably 40-60.
In the data I had from when it first got posted (I think you've updated it since then?) it was 45.2% against Tron and KCI was 43.3%. Other under 50% matchups in that data were Counters Company at 49.9%, Hollow One at 48.2%, Titanshift at 49.5%, and UWx Control at 48.8%
Spirits
That's pretty embarrassing that Counters Company and Titanshift only beat Humans a little more than 50% of the time. Although my dataset is not super high (probably 20 matches for Titanshift and 10 for Company), I have absolutely CRUSHED these matchups. Titanshift games themselves are a bit closer, but the Company ones are usually not close at all. For what it's worth, outside of playing those matches, I have also tested the matchups enough to be all right with how I view the matchup. If someone showed me something new about the matchup(s), I'd take it into consideration.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)There were several periods in modern, where there was no "best" deck, most notably the time around Born of the Gods, with Jund, UWR, Pod, Burn (due to the fresh printing of Eidolon), Tron and Twin being THE decks to beat, but not a single one of those decks were the best one out there. Affinity was also dropping in and out of that "league" in that time period.
However, everything changed when KTK got released
(btw. not arguing if any deck currently is or is not the best deck of the format, just thinking out loud).
Greetings,
Kathal
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
that said, you just have to ask yourself if there are good reasons to play decks within the 'top tier' (however you define it) that isn't humans. the answer is a resounding yes.
if action is ever taken against humans by wotc, it will be because humans got a new card and pulls away from the pack, or it will be under false pretenses to shake up the format. in the here and now though, nothing 'too good' is going on.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Yes, because statistically there was a best deck at that time. If that is the window of our last MTGO extract, that deck was Twin.
Spirits
Yep, this this this. Hopefully everyone in the thread internalizes this, and I wish I could post it to every thread in the forum and discussion on Reddit. Humans is 52% MWP overall and tends to perform about 5% better in every matchup. If one thinks they have a positive Humans matchup, it's probably even. If one thinks they have a very favorable Humans matchup, it's probably no better than 45-55. If one thinks they have a bad Humans matchup, it's probably even worse than they think at 40-60. That said, both KCI and Tron do have good Humans matchups.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)That's mostly true, especially with skill evaluations. Notably, people report, probably honestly, 70%+ MWP on MTGO with their pet decks. I absolutely buy that for most content creators. But the best pros in the world hover in the low-to-mid 60% MWP. Some have format MWP in the high 50s and there's no single deck in either the large N 2015 or 2018 datasets that has 60%+ MWP. That said, there ARE matchups that are 30-70, such as Twin Affinity and Ad Naus Infect. So if someone is estimating their deck MWP or player MWP outside of that 40-60 band, call me skeptical. And if they are pegging a matchup outside that range, it better be really exceptional.
I should also clarify that my matches AND testing have both been with GW Knight Company and Abzan Company as well. I just lumped them together because it seems that "Company" has been lumped together, at least the Druid/Vizzy versions.
Tronix had it right in the post above; Humans is just a really strong deck, maybe even the best deck by a small fraction. It's not a problem. In my opinion, I have it like this:
1. KCI
2. UW Control
3. Humans
4. Hardened Scales
5. Counters Company/Bant Spirits
4 and 5 are interchangeable... (just my opinion of course) (I did also fail in 8 PPTQs this season, so I saw a lot!)
*In my opinion, the only perceived problem is that KCI is #1. A Combo deck cannot be allowed to be the best deck in Modern, even if by a small margin. (I do realize that 1 survived for quite a long time, but outside of that...)
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)I would love to know how Skred Red does against Humans; every match I ever played with that deck against Tribal decks was absurdly one-sided, haha.
Skred Red does terribly good vs. Humans. I have a friend who runs it and claims to nearly beat Humans every time, which I feel is a bit of an exaggeration.
*Looks like my Combo side came out in that first comment, lol.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)I agree, but I think there's only a very thin zone of "resilient enough to be playable" and on either side of that are gulfs of "trash" and "broken".