Do we have any Day 2 numbers? If not, this is yet another alarmist and biased post based on one of the least representative PT datasets we've ever seen.
A) It's a TEAM event. As many Modern players have commented before, particularly at previous team events across formats, we have no idea how individual decks are performing.
B) It appears to be based on Day 1 numbers exclusively. By this logic, we should have banned out Abzan in PT FRF 2015 when it had 25%+ metagame share of both Day 1 and Day 2.
PT data is already a bit complicated as it is, because you have 6 Limited rounds propping up 10 Modern rounds. But at least there we can separate out the Modern performances from the Limited ones, and we know Wizards cares about PT T8s on their own. But add in the fact that this is a team event PLUS a Day 1 dataset, and these kinds of posts are all but meaningless.
Even with Day 2 numbers, which I haven't seen yet and don't think we have, the team nature of this event almost completely discredits any results it produces. The only events that matter so far for determining what is truly viable/bad/busted in Modern would be GP, MTGO MOCS/Challenges/PPTQs, and the previous PT. And all of those events paint a very healthy picture with the possible exception of Stirrings decks. I am all for serious discussions of Stirrings. There is actual evidence to discuss that card. But Humans? Based on Team data? Team Day 1 data?? That is not a credible argument.
EDIT: That said, SFM ban is RIDICULOUS in this format. But we knew that months ago and the PT wasn't needed to change that picture.
If Stitcher makes Dredgevine real (and I think it does) then I think we're entering dark times for fair modern decks. Between tron, KCI and gravedecks it becomes incredibly hard to cover all those angles and you will have to completely concede one or two very popular matchups
Okay, what did I miss because if people are comparing MtG to Konami's YuGiOh right now I'm intrigued.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Yeah, I mean, Modern is going YUGIOH. Turn 3 kills, rounds that take up to 15 minutes with a deck that finally fizzles (or not), a gazillion stirrings and faithless looting decks. This is getting out of hand.
Splinter Twin, SFM, GSZ are ridiculous in the Banlist. Just unban them already, or ban Stirrings and monitor Looting.
Having a graveyard-based combo win through the Split-Second card Extirpate makes it seem really silly.
Okay, what did I miss because if people are comparing MtG to Konami's YuGiOh right now I'm intrigued.
You missed some cherrypicking of datapoints to support tired arguments. We literally only have Day 1 numbers from a Team PT and people are losing their minds. We also have users, GK most recently, decrying all these T3 losses and non-interactive games despite numerous GP to the contrary, not to mention numerous PT Modern games that were highly interactive. We've now seen UW Control do very well in a number of matchups. Blue mages, rather than be happy about this, seem to fixate on the issues and magnify them over the successes. There are some legitimate issues going into the PT that remain issues during the PT: Stirrings decks appear to be one of those. But most of the other complaints are made with little if no significant support.
EDIT: I'm also loving all these lifetime MWP%s for different players in different formats. Supporting my own analysis, we see a very even mix of 55%-65% MWPs in their formats with little discernible pattern between which format has higher MWP on average. I'd be curious to aggregate those #s after the event for more analysis.
Thank you for fighting the good fight, @ktkenshinx. The sheer volume of "the sky is falling" posts in this thread make my head hurt. It's tedious to continue pointing it out, but anything beyond mild concern about the future is a vast overreaction to a small sample size. For the love of all that is holy, stop the crusading for bans based on hurt feelings.
Wait to see how the meta adjusts. Last month we had gathered the torches for KCI, last week it was Humans, and now it's Vengevine. Stop looking for decks to crucify because you're unhappy. Yes, I mean you random thread poster. Stop veering from one poorly formed ban argument to another. The fact that decks are cycling IS A FEATURE OF A HEALTHY META. You're welcome to dislike whatever is Tier 1 at any given moment, but the solution 9 out 10 times IS NOT A BANNING.
Okay, what did I miss because if people are comparing MtG to Konami's YuGiOh right now I'm intrigued.
You missed some cherrypicking of datapoints to support tired arguments. We literally only have Day 1 numbers from a Team PT and people are losing their minds. We also have users, GK most recently, decrying all these T3 losses and non-interactive games despite numerous GP to the contrary, not to mention numerous PT Modern games that were highly interactive. We've now seen UW Control do very well in a number of matchups. Blue mages, rather than be happy about this, seem to fixate on the issues and magnify them over the successes. There are some legitimate issues going into the PT that remain issues during the PT: Stirrings decks appear to be one of those. But most of the other complaints are made with little if no significant support.
EDIT: I'm also loving all these lifetime MWP%s for different players in different formats. Supporting my own analysis, we see a very even mix of 55%-65% MWPs in their formats with little discernible pattern between which format has higher MWP on average. I'd be curious to aggregate those #s after the event for more analysis.
Has there been any analysis or numbers for Day 2 that are relevant?
Yeah, I mean, Modern is going YUGIOH. Turn 3 kills, rounds that take up to 15 minutes with a deck that finally fizzles (or not), a gazillion stirrings and faithless looting decks. This is getting out of hand.
Splinter Twin, SFM, GSZ are ridiculous in the Banlist. Just unban them already, or ban Stirrings and monitor Looting.
Having a graveyard-based combo win through the Split-Second card Extirpate makes it seem really silly.
This is an extreme corner case. A correctly-timed Surgical (or Extirpate) is almost always game over for KCI.
Okay, what did I miss because if people are comparing MtG to Konami's YuGiOh right now I'm intrigued.
You missed some cherrypicking of datapoints to support tired arguments. We literally only have Day 1 numbers from a Team PT and people are losing their minds. We also have users, GK most recently, decrying all these T3 losses and non-interactive games despite numerous GP to the contrary, not to mention numerous PT Modern games that were highly interactive. We've now seen UW Control do very well in a number of matchups. Blue mages, rather than be happy about this, seem to fixate on the issues and magnify them over the successes. There are some legitimate issues going into the PT that remain issues during the PT: Stirrings decks appear to be one of those. But most of the other complaints are made with little if no significant support.
EDIT: I'm also loving all these lifetime MWP%s for different players in different formats. Supporting my own analysis, we see a very even mix of 55%-65% MWPs in their formats with little discernible pattern between which format has higher MWP on average. I'd be curious to aggregate those #s after the event for more analysis.
Has there been any analysis or numbers for Day 2 that are relevant?
Haven't seen one yet, either on stream or on the coverage page.
I always think there is a big difference in modern in what you can play to results with, and what you should be playing if your #1 goal is results. I am not a pro player nor grinder, I play magic intensively but still recreatively, and so I will probably always be on some control build regardless of how good it is. But if you truly, really want to top 8 a SCG event or GP, the pool of decks I'd actually deem a smart choise greatly diminishes.
As of now my main gripe is that it is kind of absurd what is allowed for low interactive decks when I see what fair cards are still banned, or how Counterspell is still not Modern legal.
Do we have any Day 2 numbers? If not, this is yet another alarmist and biased post based on one of the least representative PT datasets we've ever seen.
A) It's a TEAM event. As many Modern players have commented before, particularly at previous team events across formats, we have no idea how individual decks are performing.
B) It appears to be based on Day 1 numbers exclusively. By this logic, we should have banned out Abzan in PT FRF 2015 when it had 25%+ metagame share of both Day 1 and Day 2.
PT data is already a bit complicated as it is, because you have 6 Limited rounds propping up 10 Modern rounds. But at least there we can separate out the Modern performances from the Limited ones, and we know Wizards cares about PT T8s on their own. But add in the fact that this is a team event PLUS a Day 1 dataset, and these kinds of posts are all but meaningless.
Even with Day 2 numbers, which I haven't seen yet and don't think we have, the team nature of this event almost completely discredits any results it produces. The only events that matter so far for determining what is truly viable/bad/busted in Modern would be GP, MTGO MOCS/Challenges/PPTQs, and the previous PT. And all of those events paint a very healthy picture with the possible exception of Stirrings decks. I am all for serious discussions of Stirrings. There is actual evidence to discuss that card. But Humans? Based on Team data? Team Day 1 data?? That is not a credible argument.
EDIT: That said, SFM ban is RIDICULOUS in this format. But we knew that months ago and the PT wasn't needed to change that picture.
lol, now you do the same you critized bevore....only a Team event....we doesnt knew day 2...all the arguments you talked bevore sorry, this is cherrypicking! You ignore the metashare and succes of humans
@KTK, there were many other times that there was a problem in modern, and you were cool with it. In the end you were wrong(and @Nial and me, in the end, were right).
When was that? I've called for "No bans" for over 1.5 years and nailed that prediction every time. And I called for an unban in January and got that one right too (didn't see both unbans, I admit). So I'm not really sure how there are "many other times" there was a "problem" that you/Nial got and I/others missed.
EDIT: That quote of mine is a terrible example. Notice how I said we should wait for results, not that the deck was categorically safe. Just because Dredge ended up being busted that does not mean the initial alarmism was right. Also, if you had to dig back to 09/2016 to find my last miss when it's not even a full miss and more of a caution about alarmism, I'm not sure that's a great example.
Yeah, I mean, Modern is going YUGIOH. Turn 3 kills, rounds that take up to 15 minutes with a deck that finally fizzles (or not), a gazillion stirrings and faithless looting decks. This is getting out of hand.
Splinter Twin, SFM, GSZ are ridiculous in the Banlist. Just unban them already, or ban Stirrings and monitor Looting.
Having a graveyard-based combo win through the Split-Second card Extirpate makes it seem really silly.
This is an extreme corner case. A correctly-timed Surgical (or Extirpate) is almost always game over for KCI.
I honestly won't even know how to time it then. Because KCI gets around split second due to the "mana ability" loophole, as far as I understand it.
@KTK, there were many other times that there was a problem in modern, and you were cool with it. In the end you were wrong(and @Nial and me, in the end, were right).
Now, I know there are several other times that you were right and we were wrong, but dismissing everything and saying "format is fine", is dangerous.
The first thoughtseize deck is sitting at 3%. This is bad news. What more do you want to admit that? Eldrazi v 2.0? This won't ever happen again probably. But, we are not in the best shape.
Also, we got a KCI deck that is super resilient, is taking long turns, and is tier 1 and uninteractive. This is another problem.
In addition, Stirrings and Looting decks alltogether make up a SIGNIFICANT portion of the meta. This is the most basic problem we are facing.
I believe the new Bridgevine deck, is Dredge all over again, creating sideboard wars and stuff.
Also, I don't have any problem with Humans, as some people said. I think the deck is fine, even if it's on 25% of the meta, because the angles it's operating from is the most basic one you will ever find in a game.
Based on what? I've grinded a lot in Competitive Leagues over the last two weeks and I've seen various incarnations of it only 11 times. That's not nearly enough to conclusively discuss bans (or even a hypothetical "watch list"). Seeing it on camera at the PT a few times is basically anecdotal evidence at this point. Far, far too much of the discussion around BR Vengevine mirrors the excessive concerns at the incredibly broken things Hollow One could rarely do. And look how quickly those fell by the wayside once the meta adjusted.
I did present a link though. It was back when cathartic reunion was printed. Some of us snap called dredge as the next oppressive deck, and this proved to be right. Now, there is a case this new BR deck will be Dredge all over again.
It seems to be the real deal, super strong, super explosive, and really forces you to lose game 1 and find your sideboard hate at game 2 if you are a fair deck.
I am unwilling to make strong statements about a deck based on the results of a single PT and some scattered MTGO results. I need to see GP to make those evaluations and we haven't had them yet. Or sustained MTGO MOCS/Challenge/PPTQ results. Or even Open results, although Wizards doesn't really care about those as much. Anything! Just not Day 1 Team PT results.
PS: I just spoke of one time we were right. Not multiple times. Also, I said there were multiple times you were right!
You said "many other times" where there was a problem I was cool with and that "In the end" I was wrong. This suggested to me that you thought I had made many misses. I am totally willing to admit that I was not on a Dredge-is-a-problem train in 09/2016, but that's just because I am always unwilling to make judgments on cards until we have a history of results.
Just to mention that there won't be any breakdown for Day 2 because it would be absolutely the same as the breakdown for Day 1. For this particular event, no teams were eliminated at the end of Day 1. Everyone continues to participate in Day 2.
Okay, what did I miss because if people are comparing MtG to Konami's YuGiOh right now I'm intrigued.
You missed some cherrypicking of datapoints to support tired arguments. We literally only have Day 1 numbers from a Team PT and people are losing their minds. We also have users, GK most recently, decrying all these T3 losses and non-interactive games despite numerous GP to the contrary, not to mention numerous PT Modern games that were highly interactive. We've now seen UW Control do very well in a number of matchups. Blue mages, rather than be happy about this, seem to fixate on the issues and magnify them over the successes. There are some legitimate issues going into the PT that remain issues during the PT: Stirrings decks appear to be one of those. But most of the other complaints are made with little if no significant support.
EDIT: I'm also loving all these lifetime MWP%s for different players in different formats. Supporting my own analysis, we see a very even mix of 55%-65% MWPs in their formats with little discernible pattern between which format has higher MWP on average. I'd be curious to aggregate those #s after the event for more analysis.
I just watched the PT matches to figure out why I was seeing the spikes I was finding. It looks like people are nose diving to get into bridge dredge. I hate to admit it, but as a former vengevine player that deck looks even faster than dredge was with Grave troll. I don't think it's time to say they are going to ban something yet, but I know I'm seriously thinking of selling out of one of my all time favorite pet card to get Scalding Tarn. I'm pretty sure that if it came down to picking which card would be banned it's going to be bridge since that is the engine.
As for speculation on the forum on the quick changes, I think it's mostly the notion that modern changes slowly when it can actually shift really fast and without warning. We saw this kind of shift on the market when eldrazi winter happened, albeit that went really deep into cards like Painter's Servant.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Jeskai fell of the map and it's not coming back though. With KCI being an ultra bad matchup, and Tron having a great presence, and with new super explosive yard decks now, most Jeskai pilots will go UW now.
I am sad to say this, but Jeskai is pretty much dead at this meta.
Cool, now UW is better and we have PT results to suggest that, results many players seem to heavily weigh for the unfair decks and totally ignore for the fair ones. We either look at pre-summer Modern and see consistent Jeskai success. Or we look at summer Modern and see UW Control taking the stage. Either way, UWx is doing great in 2018. Metagame shifts are totally fine and are part of a stable format.
Speaking of cherry picking data. Saying u/w was good at all gps this year when all 3 results were in the same gp seems slightly cherry picked.
UWx Contol, not just UW. Read the post; I literally explained Jeskai's performance. Stop trying to force this narrative.
They aren’t the same deck at all though. I’m not pushing any narrative. Seemed you were. I literally just originally said this is the perfect event for u/w control because you can actually get the meta call correct for the build. This is a very tiny view of the actual modern meta at normal events. Don’t be so hasty to defend a narrative someone isn’t making.
Please feel free to quote where I said anything bad about uw or uwx decks though....
Eh most Jeskai players are probably fine they probably had all or most of the cards to just go UW anyway.
Much like if RB Vengevine player used to play Mardu Pyromancer they should have had most of the same cards. Although I don't get why mardu is not RB Souls or Lingering Souls since in both cases that what the main dip into W or G are for.
They aren’t the same deck at all though. I’m not pushing any narrative. Seemed you were. I literally just originally said this is the perfect event for u/w control because you can actually get the meta call correct for the build. This is a very tiny view of the actual modern meta at normal events. Don’t be so hasty to defend a narrative someone isn’t making.
Please feel free to quote where I said anything bad about uw or uwx decks though....
You did not say anything about "UW Control." You said (emphasis added):
It’s a pro tour, very small meta of people that all play established decks, and they are less worried about draws because there are 2 people to their sides that just have to complete their games. That’s where control is great.
Specifically, you were stating that in this PT environment, there are specific factors that make "control" (not "UW Control") "great". I argued against you, stating that "control" has been great all year, providing GP examples for UWx Control throughout the year. If you meant UW Control specifically, not control generally as you said, you should have said so. And even there, UW Control was great on both MTGO premier events and GP Bar, so I don't think you can argue that the PT alone was the necessary environment for UW Control to succeed.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Over-Extended/Modern Since 2010
To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
Do we have any Day 2 numbers? If not, this is yet another alarmist and biased post based on one of the least representative PT datasets we've ever seen.
A) It's a TEAM event. As many Modern players have commented before, particularly at previous team events across formats, we have no idea how individual decks are performing.
B) It appears to be based on Day 1 numbers exclusively. By this logic, we should have banned out Abzan in PT FRF 2015 when it had 25%+ metagame share of both Day 1 and Day 2.
PT data is already a bit complicated as it is, because you have 6 Limited rounds propping up 10 Modern rounds. But at least there we can separate out the Modern performances from the Limited ones, and we know Wizards cares about PT T8s on their own. But add in the fact that this is a team event PLUS a Day 1 dataset, and these kinds of posts are all but meaningless.
Even with Day 2 numbers, which I haven't seen yet and don't think we have, the team nature of this event almost completely discredits any results it produces. The only events that matter so far for determining what is truly viable/bad/busted in Modern would be GP, MTGO MOCS/Challenges/PPTQs, and the previous PT. And all of those events paint a very healthy picture with the possible exception of Stirrings decks. I am all for serious discussions of Stirrings. There is actual evidence to discuss that card. But Humans? Based on Team data? Team Day 1 data?? That is not a credible argument.
EDIT: That said, SFM ban is RIDICULOUS in this format. But we knew that months ago and the PT wasn't needed to change that picture.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Having a graveyard-based combo win through the Split-Second card Extirpate makes it seem really silly.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
You missed some cherrypicking of datapoints to support tired arguments. We literally only have Day 1 numbers from a Team PT and people are losing their minds. We also have users, GK most recently, decrying all these T3 losses and non-interactive games despite numerous GP to the contrary, not to mention numerous PT Modern games that were highly interactive. We've now seen UW Control do very well in a number of matchups. Blue mages, rather than be happy about this, seem to fixate on the issues and magnify them over the successes. There are some legitimate issues going into the PT that remain issues during the PT: Stirrings decks appear to be one of those. But most of the other complaints are made with little if no significant support.
EDIT: I'm also loving all these lifetime MWP%s for different players in different formats. Supporting my own analysis, we see a very even mix of 55%-65% MWPs in their formats with little discernible pattern between which format has higher MWP on average. I'd be curious to aggregate those #s after the event for more analysis.
Wait to see how the meta adjusts. Last month we had gathered the torches for KCI, last week it was Humans, and now it's Vengevine. Stop looking for decks to crucify because you're unhappy. Yes, I mean you random thread poster. Stop veering from one poorly formed ban argument to another. The fact that decks are cycling IS A FEATURE OF A HEALTHY META. You're welcome to dislike whatever is Tier 1 at any given moment, but the solution 9 out 10 times IS NOT A BANNING.
Has there been any analysis or numbers for Day 2 that are relevant?
Spirits
Haven't seen one yet, either on stream or on the coverage page.
As of now my main gripe is that it is kind of absurd what is allowed for low interactive decks when I see what fair cards are still banned, or how Counterspell is still not Modern legal.
When was that? I've called for "No bans" for over 1.5 years and nailed that prediction every time. And I called for an unban in January and got that one right too (didn't see both unbans, I admit). So I'm not really sure how there are "many other times" there was a "problem" that you/Nial got and I/others missed.
EDIT: That quote of mine is a terrible example. Notice how I said we should wait for results, not that the deck was categorically safe. Just because Dredge ended up being busted that does not mean the initial alarmism was right. Also, if you had to dig back to 09/2016 to find my last miss when it's not even a full miss and more of a caution about alarmism, I'm not sure that's a great example.
I honestly won't even know how to time it then. Because KCI gets around split second due to the "mana ability" loophole, as far as I understand it.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Based on what? I've grinded a lot in Competitive Leagues over the last two weeks and I've seen various incarnations of it only 11 times. That's not nearly enough to conclusively discuss bans (or even a hypothetical "watch list"). Seeing it on camera at the PT a few times is basically anecdotal evidence at this point. Far, far too much of the discussion around BR Vengevine mirrors the excessive concerns at the incredibly broken things Hollow One could rarely do. And look how quickly those fell by the wayside once the meta adjusted.
Please stop the chicken little routine.
I am unwilling to make strong statements about a deck based on the results of a single PT and some scattered MTGO results. I need to see GP to make those evaluations and we haven't had them yet. Or sustained MTGO MOCS/Challenge/PPTQ results. Or even Open results, although Wizards doesn't really care about those as much. Anything! Just not Day 1 Team PT results.
You said "many other times" where there was a problem I was cool with and that "In the end" I was wrong. This suggested to me that you thought I had made many misses. I am totally willing to admit that I was not on a Dredge-is-a-problem train in 09/2016, but that's just because I am always unwilling to make judgments on cards until we have a history of results.
I just watched the PT matches to figure out why I was seeing the spikes I was finding. It looks like people are nose diving to get into bridge dredge. I hate to admit it, but as a former vengevine player that deck looks even faster than dredge was with Grave troll. I don't think it's time to say they are going to ban something yet, but I know I'm seriously thinking of selling out of one of my all time favorite pet card to get Scalding Tarn. I'm pretty sure that if it came down to picking which card would be banned it's going to be bridge since that is the engine.
As for speculation on the forum on the quick changes, I think it's mostly the notion that modern changes slowly when it can actually shift really fast and without warning. We saw this kind of shift on the market when eldrazi winter happened, albeit that went really deep into cards like Painter's Servant.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
UWx Contol, not just UW. Read the post; I literally explained Jeskai's performance. Stop trying to force this narrative.
Cool, now UW is better and we have PT results to suggest that, results many players seem to heavily weigh for the unfair decks and totally ignore for the fair ones. We either look at pre-summer Modern and see consistent Jeskai success. Or we look at summer Modern and see UW Control taking the stage. Either way, UWx is doing great in 2018. Metagame shifts are totally fine and are part of a stable format.
They aren’t the same deck at all though. I’m not pushing any narrative. Seemed you were. I literally just originally said this is the perfect event for u/w control because you can actually get the meta call correct for the build. This is a very tiny view of the actual modern meta at normal events. Don’t be so hasty to defend a narrative someone isn’t making.
Please feel free to quote where I said anything bad about uw or uwx decks though....
Much like if RB Vengevine player used to play Mardu Pyromancer they should have had most of the same cards. Although I don't get why mardu is not RB Souls or Lingering Souls since in both cases that what the main dip into W or G are for.
You did not say anything about "UW Control." You said (emphasis added):
Specifically, you were stating that in this PT environment, there are specific factors that make "control" (not "UW Control") "great". I argued against you, stating that "control" has been great all year, providing GP examples for UWx Control throughout the year. If you meant UW Control specifically, not control generally as you said, you should have said so. And even there, UW Control was great on both MTGO premier events and GP Bar, so I don't think you can argue that the PT alone was the necessary environment for UW Control to succeed.