KCI doea lose to a lot of hate, but ot does run 4 nature's claim and has a good amount of draw. Stony isnt that common unless theres other affinity or lantern players and i find that RiP isn't common at all, and Relic is easy to beat.
Yeah, KCI is super resilient to all hate except Stony Silence and RIP. RIP gets beaten by Claim and EE, and you can even Stirrings for the EE for more redundancy. Wurmcoil and Claim beat Silence. That's a really hard deck to play well though; it's easy to screw up even a goldfish turn, let alone when the opponent is interacting.
I wanna try out Cheerios since i have the Opals but dont have the rest of the deck. I watched some videos on it and it looks inconsistent. However the new build with Artificer's Assistant looks actually sick
I play a LOT of Cheeri0s and it was actually consistent before Assistant. It's better now and I was wrong about Assistant's impact, which I thought would be minimal but actually improves the deck by a notable degree. My big problem with Cheeri0s is the comparative lack of lines and decision-making relative to something like Storm, KCI, or Bloom. You have a LOT of dead draws in the deck, relatively low velocity without an engine, and not too many areas to leverage play skill. The biggest decisions are often (but not always), a) do I mulligan a borderline hand?, b) when do I go for this combo?, c) do I stop during the combo and wait/cast engine #2/cast a cantrip?, d) when do I switch to a Retract/Grapeshot kill with no engine, and e) when do I go for Retract/draw just to draw cards? Most of those answers are pretty easy though and end up requiring fewer decisions than I would hope. This puts you in a disproportionate number matchups where you are deterministically dead to anything but a topdeck, which sucks for players that want to leverage skill in a game. But overall, it's a fun deck that is surprisingly competitive.
See, I actually don't think KCI is that tough to play. When you go off, your chances of fizzling are very small. Now, the original Second Sunrise Eggs had a way bigger chance of fizzling, doing nothing, and passing the turn with nothing. I've played a medium amount of Eggs before and it is not a tough way of "playing Magic" for me.
It is similar to Grishoalbrand, although I'll admit that I still make mistakes to this very day. But I do some things that many players don't even see or realize, mostly from making mistakes in those situations many, many times, lol. Combo decks are not super tough for me to play.
*I would say that my weakness is mostly playing Aggro or Burn type decks. Playing Control for 8 years straight a while ago made me not know how to do creature combat. I learned some from Limited, but it didn't come up quite as much or was not as intricate as Constructed. I've also shied away from these sort of decks because I'm always afraid to run out of gas. Opponent at 2 life. Yep. They draw 5 straight gas cards while I peel my 6-10th lands.
**I tried Humans last night and I was unimpressed. GR Eldrazi went toe to toe with me when he had more than 4 cards, Hollow One nearly beat me despite a really good draw from me (I'm not denying that he also had a good draw), I technically lost to Lantern because I drew a million lands before Lantern and Shredder got aboard and then the other million after that obviously, and I got turn 3 Tronned twice on the play in game 1 and draw in game 2 and fumbled with a land drop to not win game 1 still. I know we shouldn't be influenced by results, especially from 1 tournament, but I am not super impressed right now.
(If you haven't guessed right now, my personality type is pessimistic. I played Mono Red at 2 PPTQs and an FNM recently, losing in the finals of a PPTQ and the top 4, while going 3-0-1 at FNM. I had TOP DECKS to win 3 times in these tournaments. I've played several Modern decks for over 6 months and don't remember top decking to win 3 times with any of them. I don't include drawing 7 cards from Griselbrand and getting that last Nourishing Shoal; that's 7 cards, not 1.)
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
See, I actually don't think KCI is that tough to play. When you go off, your chances of fizzling are very small. Now, the original Second Sunrise Eggs had a way bigger chance of fizzling, doing nothing, and passing the turn with nothing. I've played a medium amount of Eggs before and it is not a tough way of "playing Magic" for me.
I don't think it's tough in your average tournament or game. But it gets very tough in a few situations. The first situation is when it's Round 11 and you're tired and mentally fatigued. This is even tougher on MTGO where there is a good amount of clicking you need to do relatively quickly. That's where mistakes can happen if your opponent lets you play stuff out. Another situation is when an opponent knows the proper moment to disrupt your game plan and you need to recover under pressure and/or during a combo sequence. But if you personally think the deck is easy, I encourage you to just play it. It's SIGNIFICANTLY better than its metagame share indicates.
I know you are pessimistic and sort of feel like you've resigned yourself to this narrative of the thread. I'm just going to reiterate that there is a contingent of Modern players on MTGO, SCG circuits, and GP/PPTQ circuits who have consistent success in this format. If nothing else, try to replicate what they are doing and you will eventually have more success. My own advice: the single best way to get better at this game and format is to iterate on MTGO. It is the best way to practice and improve and it's not particularly close. I'll also say that no one, yourself included, should try a deck for a single tournament and dismiss it. There's not a discipline on earth where you'd try something new for one session/tournament/day/class/etc. and then throw it away after that one attempt. ESPECIALLY if better practitioners are advocating for it. To use another hobby example, imagine if a jujitsu practitioner learned a new takedown, tried it in a tournament, and never landed it once. Let's make it worse and say they lost every match in that tournament and the takedown was a major contributor to their loss (e.g. their positioning was bad after the failed attempt). That practitioner would be flat out wrong to stop trying it just because it was a 0% success rate in a single event.
I just want to point out that "shoktroopa" is Logan Nettles, an amazing player that plays in the Modern Super League. He also happens to be Reid Duke's cousin. I think if most of us had Reid Duke for a cousin and grew up playing him half of our lives, we would all be a bit better than we are now. Shoktroopa isn't a "random internet dude" anymore.
But still, it's amazing that he does well with Mono Blue Tron, just like it's amazing that Reid does well right now with Jund, just like it's amazing that 2 Jund players top 8ed the SCG Louisville. I'll give you that.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
i think a big reason why people end up stumbling around the format is that there arent a small number of 'good decks' that are set apart from the rest of the field by a significant margin. the concept of 'tier 1' just doesnt exist the same way that it did 5 years ago.
so now we just have a whole lot of decks that win and lose about the same amount, but each being kept in check because of very noticeable weaknesses that are difficult to overcome when people choose to exploit it. add to this that the metagame shifts at the drop of a hat and you end up in in a situation where players pick up decks, hone in on what makes them bad, then fall into this pattern of looking for the next best thing because 'the grass is always greener'.
you see this from pros who dont specialize in the format, from new players getting their first competitive level deck, and everything in between.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
I just want to point out that "shoktroopa" is Logan Nettles, an amazing player that plays in the Modern Super League. He also happens to be Reid Duke's cousin. I think if most of us had Reid Duke for a cousin and grew up playing him half of our lives, we would all be a bit better than we are now. Shoktroopa isn't a "random internet dude" anymore.
But still, it's amazing that he does well with Mono Blue Tron, just like it's amazing that Reid does well right now with Jund, just like it's amazing that 2 Jund players top 8ed the SCG Louisville. I'll give you that.
IMO after enough datapoints it stops being "amazing" and starts being the norm. It's almost willfully ignorant at this point to continue lauding these and similar successes as outliers. After reading through this thread, I feel like you're not "pessimistic" so much as determined to displace your failings in Modern onto outside variables. After all, how can you be pessimistic but hold that KCI is easy to play? What is your competitive record with the deck, whose limiting factor re: metagame shares, according to most available evidence, is apparently its learning curve?
tl;dr: If shock (/anyone) can win with Blue Tron, you (/anyone) can definitely win with Grishoalbrand (/whatever other niche-occupying Modern deck). Just gotta put in the reps like everybody else.
the card itself really isn't worth the card board its printed on...does it serve a purpose? Sure its a blue 1 drop that might not be a 1/1. I would not put it in a list and expect to win a PTQ or GP though.
My Competitive record with KCI is 0-0. I was 3-1 and 2-2 at two WNM tournaments, or Casual REL. With Sunny Side Up, it was around 62% if I remember correctly, although I didn't go to any GPs with it. After Second Sunrise was banned, I was around 60% or so in 3 tournaments, none being Comp REL.
I am not saying that my failings in Modern are on "outside variables." I am the only one responsible for my own failings in Modern. I know that. I was asking about how I can do better. So far, the responses that I've gotten have been very good. I think I "liked" about 5 posts on the first page. I actually didn't do too badly with Grishoalbrand, but after losing once to Humans (after previously beating it 3 times), I realized that it was a poor matchup (when I tested it further myself). I didn't know that originally because sometimes you always draw well vs. a certain deck, so you think your deck beats it. But you're wrong.
I am not saying KCI is easy to play. It is easier for some than others. I wouldn't expect someone who has never played an Eggs style deck to pick it up in 1 day when I've played Eggs variants in the past. I still hold that Burn is a super tough deck for me to play perfectly. Aggro is also a huge weakness of mine. I just am not used to playing these strategies. Also, I am super sure that I'm not as good playing Control as I was in the middle of playing only those decks for 8 years straight. Pretty sure about that, but also know that I can beat the average person at it because I've done so at low level competition, like a Store Championship or FNM.
I just really need to get over the hump. I've just had trouble finishing off tournaments, ie. getting first place, and I want to figure out what it is about me that is sabotaging that. Maybe the fear of drawing 6 lands or 6 non-lands is making it a self-fulfilling prophecy? In the last 2 weeks, do you know how many times someone has said to me, "damn, those were rough draws?" Had it with Humans too. Kept a 4 land hand with double Kitesail Freebooter and Meddling Mage vs. Tron (with Horizon Canopy). Drew 4 lands and an Aether Vial and lost to top decked Karn, Ballista, and Ulamog. I needed to do something better to win that game. I just can't figure out what right now. But I will figure it out. I'm not stupid. Once I figure things like that out, I will be a bit more stronger on my game.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
I just really need to get over the hump. I've just had trouble finishing off tournaments, ie. getting first place, and I want to figure out what it is about me that is sabotaging that. Maybe the fear of drawing 6 lands or 6 non-lands is making it a self-fulfilling prophecy? In the last 2 weeks, do you know how many times someone has said to me, "damn, those were rough draws?" Had it with Humans too. Kept a 4 land hand with double Kitesail Freebooter and Meddling Mage vs. Tron (with Horizon Canopy). Drew 4 lands and an Aether Vial and lost to top decked Karn, Ballista, and Ulamog. I needed to do something better to win that game. I just can't figure out what right now. But I will figure it out. I'm not stupid. Once I figure things like that out, I will be a bit more stronger on my game.
I assume you knew it was Tron because of how I read the "vs. Tron" in your statement. If not, that's a separate discussion. But if so, that's the kind of slow, no-clock hand that Tron eats alive. Tron has amazing topdecks, incredibly velocity, and a wealth of threats. It's going to overcome that scattershot disruption in most games. Assuming you're on the play, here's that clock in action:
T1: 0 damage (20)
T2: Freebooter, 0 damage (20)
T3: Freebooter, 1 damage (19)
T4: Mage, 2 damage (17)
T5: Swing with team (13)
T6: Swing with team (9)
You see where this is going. Without an actual clock, this hand is way too slow and gives Tron too many draws to recover. Swapping T3/T4 Freebooter/Mage doesn't help it either; the hand is totally reliant on drawing a real clock like Lieutenant or topdecking a Champion on T2/T3.
That's the second problem. You are not likely to draw that clock over this game. Your dead draws are all the non-Canopy lands, all Vials, Hierarchs, Freebooters 3 and 4, and 4 Reflector Mage (assuming his threat isn't Wurmcoil). So from your first draw onward, you had 16 dead lands (19 base - 1 Canopy in hand - 2 land in hand), 4 dead Vials, 4 dead Hierarchs (don't add to damage), 2 dead Freebooters, and 4 dead Reflectors for a total of 30 dead cards and 23 live cards. Champion topdecks also would have sucked past T3 if you already played some Humans, so those represent more dead draws. You also don't want to draw T4/T5 Thalia. Of course Tron had time to draw into a gameplan. All Tron does is thin the deck and see more cards.
Now, if you didn't know your opponent was on Tron and thought this was a blind keep in Modern, that's something to discuss. I would've shipped it because it has no clock and gets eaten by too many proactive decks (what the heck does this do against Burn, Affinity, H1, or Elves?), but there are reasonable arguments on both sides. But if you knew it was Tron in the first place, knowingly keeping that hand put you in a statistically unlikely position to win.
In the end, the skill to practice based on this example is mulliganing. I know this because it's a skill I am currently working on and I have lost a lot of games to similar decisions. More intentional mulligan decisions has improved my gameplay recently and I'm always excited to discuss it.
I just really need to get over the hump. I've just had trouble finishing off tournaments, ie. getting first place, and I want to figure out what it is about me that is sabotaging that. Maybe the fear of drawing 6 lands or 6 non-lands is making it a self-fulfilling prophecy? In the last 2 weeks, do you know how many times someone has said to me, "damn, those were rough draws?" Had it with Humans too. Kept a 4 land hand with double Kitesail Freebooter and Meddling Mage vs. Tron (with Horizon Canopy). Drew 4 lands and an Aether Vial and lost to top decked Karn, Ballista, and Ulamog. I needed to do something better to win that game. I just can't figure out what right now. But I will figure it out. I'm not stupid. Once I figure things like that out, I will be a bit more stronger on my game.
I assume you knew it was Tron because of how I read the "vs. Tron" in your statement. If not, that's a separate discussion. But if so, that's the kind of slow, no-clock hand that Tron eats alive. Tron has amazing topdecks, incredibly velocity, and a wealth of threats. It's going to overcome that scattershot disruption in most games. Assuming you're on the play, here's that clock in action:
T1: 0 damage (20)
T2: Freebooter, 0 damage (20)
T3: Freebooter, 1 damage (19)
T4: Mage, 2 damage (17)
T5: Swing with team (13)
T6: Swing with team (9)
You see where this is going. Without an actual clock, this hand is way too slow and gives Tron too many draws to recover. Swapping T3/T4 Freebooter/Mage doesn't help it either; the hand is totally reliant on drawing a real clock like Lieutenant or topdecking a Champion on T2/T3.
That's the second problem. You are not likely to draw that clock over this game. Your dead draws are all the non-Canopy lands, all Vials, Hierarchs, Freebooters 3 and 4, and 4 Reflector Mage (assuming his threat isn't Wurmcoil). So from your first draw onward, you had 16 dead lands (19 base - 1 Canopy in hand - 2 land in hand), 4 dead Vials, 4 dead Hierarchs (don't add to damage), 2 dead Freebooters, and 4 dead Reflectors for a total of 30 dead cards and 23 live cards. Champion topdecks also would have sucked past T3 if you already played some Humans, so those represent more dead draws. You also don't want to draw T4/T5 Thalia. Of course Tron had time to draw into a gameplan. All Tron does is thin the deck and see more cards.
Now, if you didn't know your opponent was on Tron and thought this was a blind keep in Modern, that's something to discuss. I would've shipped it because it has no clock and gets eaten by too many proactive decks (what the heck does this do against Burn, Affinity, H1, or Elves?), but there are reasonable arguments on both sides. But if you knew it was Tron in the first place, knowingly keeping that hand put you in a statistically unlikely position to win.
In the end, the skill to practice based on this example is mulliganing. I know this because it's a skill I am currently working on and I have lost a lot of games to similar decisions. More intentional mulligan decisions has improved my gameplay recently and I'm always excited to discuss it.
Then I guess I was stupid to assume that there were 3 more Meddling Mage, 4 Champion of the Parish, 4 Thalia's Lieutenant, 4 Phantasmal Image, and 4 Mantis Rider in the deck. I have to assume that he has triple Karn Liberated AND another threat that I have to name with Meddling Mage? Is there a larger chance of drawing 4 more land and a Vial than a single card of those 19 cards that I named? Horizon Canopy is a redraw eventually at worst. When you play against Tron, you cannot beat them with your opening hand unless you consistently mull to hands that have double Champion of the Parish, Thalia's Lieutenant, and 2 land. If you can mulligan to that, more power to you. I can't.
I guess I was just stupid because the chances for me to draw 4 of the remaining 15 land in the deck is higher than the chances of drawing 1 of 39 creatures. Sometimes you have to have faith in your deck when you know your opponent has a hand that has Tron on 3 with multiple threats every game you've played him.
If I had not known what he was playing, I would have mulliganed it. I knew he was playing Tron, so I essentially "knew" his hand was Tron pieces 1 and 2, Map, Karn, Ugin, and 2 other cards, presumably some land and something else. If I nab Karn and Ugin, I can get into a top deck war in which I already have some stuff on board. If you can think of something that gets him out of this situation, you're right. There's always draws that get him out of any situation. Ugin, Walking Ballista, Oblivion Stone in some order after his turn 3 Tron gets him out of anything I can throw at him unless you see me doing Meddling Mage into Meddling Mage into double Meddling Mage into 2 more (Image). I can't mulligan, assuming I'll get that or the triple Champion of the Parish hand.
logan nettles goes by jaberwocki on mtgo. shoktroopa plays UTron religiously and streams on twitch under the handle 'kharniverous'
My bad. I identified the wrong U Tron player. Shiiiet. You actually made me remember now that Jaberwocki plays a LOT of different decks on MTGO. I don't play MTGO, so I should stop talking about it like I know it, lol. @oldmanmemory
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Then I guess I was stupid to assume that there were 3 more Meddling Mage, 4 Champion of the Parish, 4 Thalia's Lieutenant, 4 Phantasmal Image, and 4 Mantis Rider in the deck. I have to assume that he has triple Karn Liberated AND another threat that I have to name with Meddling Mage? Is there a larger chance of drawing 4 more land and a Vial than a single card of those 19 cards that I named? Horizon Canopy is a redraw eventually at worst. When you play against Tron, you cannot beat them with your opening hand unless you consistently mull to hands that have double Champion of the Parish, Thalia's Lieutenant, and 2 land. If you can mulligan to that, more power to you. I can't.
I don't think you're stupid and didn't say you were. You just made a mistake. I can identify a half dozen mulligan mistakes I made in the last week of Leagues too. You are correct that you had 3 more Mages, 4 Champions, 4 Lieutenants, 4 Images, and 4 Riders in the deck, i.e. 19 live draws. Let's also assume the Champs are live draws at any point in the next 3 turns, when we know they are only live on T2/T3 (too slow on T4+). You then had your opening grip of 7, which leaves 34 cards unaccounted for. We'll assume the Canopies are also live, and you have 3 more of those left, for 22 live draws total. That means you have 31 "dead" draws in the deck compared with 22 "live" ones. Those are not great odds. I'd rather gamble on a better hand in a deck that mulligans pretty well. Many players make bad mulligan decisions so it's an easy place to look if someone is serious about improving.
The other way to look at this is as an anomaly and not a mistake. As in, you made the right choice in keeping the hand and trusting the cumulative probability of drawing live by T4, but it just didn't work out in this one game. That's fine too! But that viewpoint is completely at odds with a quote you made in the previous post that started this exchange:
Maybe the fear of drawing 6 lands or 6 non-lands is making it a self-fulfilling prophecy? In the last 2 weeks, do you know how many times someone has said to me, "damn, those were rough draws?"
...
I needed to do something better to win that game. I just can't figure out what right now. But I will figure it out. I'm not stupid. Once I figure things like that out, I will be a bit more stronger on my game.
You're describing a mulligan problem here. You have a self-proclaimed "fear" of certain hands, you have people talking to you about "rough draws," and you kept a clockless hand against a deck that needs to be clocked. If I had that experience, decided it was part of an issue, and then wanted to diagnose what that issue was, I would definitely describe it as a mulligan issue. Or you can decide that this wasn't part of an issue and was merely an anomaly, in which case there's nothing to discuss. You just framed it as an issue so I pointed to the likeliest explanation for that issue.
Framing this differently, what do you think the issues are? We all know the issue isn't bad luck or bad matchups. Those aren't real issues that hold people back. Those are excuses players make to obscure actual errors in their gameplay; I'm not saying you are doing that but we all know at least a dozen players who do. Personally, here are my own play issues I am trying to resolve, none of which are luck-based, matchup-based, or external-factor based:
Inappropriate sideboarding, typically over/under-boarding and over/under-thinking what my opponent will SB in.
Not mulliganing 7 card hands that look "fine" but don't do anything without lucky draws.
Fatigue errors, e.g. fetching an untapped Blood Crypt in game 10 of League 4 on T1 because I'm not thinking. Then I lose on T5 to a 4/4 Mantis Rider swinging when I'm at 3 instead of at 5.
Not sequencing to my outs, e.g. playing a basic Mountain on T1 for a painless Faithless Looting against a combo deck where 2 life doesn't matter, and then being unable to double Thoughtseize on T2 when I draw a second TS.
Proper Faithless Looting use: what to discard, when to flash it back and when to wait.
Appropriate flex slot adjustment
That's just a few of the concrete, accountability-based elements I am trying to improve in my game. It might help users to have a similar concrete list of things you are working on because right now, I at least am struggling to identify those elements.
It was a loose keep. I will give you that. But against that opponent, I know I have to have some faith in my deck. After losing the die roll in game 1, I have to realize that his top 3 cards can be Urza pieces #1-3 and Ugin or Oblivion Stone, meaning that Ugin wipes whatever I have. I have talked about the turn 3 Humans win. It doesn't mean that I will have it in this situation or should bank on trying to get it. At this point, I have to have some faith in the deck. If you are a Humans player going into every match thinking of what the worst draws you can have and believing that you will have nothing short of those draws, you are going to mulligan a lot of hands. For an example, I do not mulligan to less than 4 cards. If I have mulled to 4 and have no lands, I, for the most part, will just have faith in the deck to produce a land. It doesn't happen, then that's okay. I would have lost on 3 cards anyway, especially so in a super quick Aggro goldfish format.
Honestly, the format often feels like a goldfish format of everyone trying to goldfish their opponents quicker than they get goldfished. If anyone stumbles, mulligans too deep, or keeps a bad hand, they don't stand a chance. Today I played with 8 people playing Jeskai Control, UW Control, Mardu, and Jund. These decks did not have super quick goldfish hands, but they goldfished in another way - trying to draw 4 Path to Exile or 4 Lightning Bolt by turn 4 so I don't kill them. Some people may talk about super intricate board states, but this is what Modern often comes down to.
I will admit that I do not mulligan as often as I should. Sometimes I try to have faith in the deck because I assume players that do well have ... faith in their decks. Losing a game because you mulliganed to 3 or because you kept a loose hand still results in a game loss. It is indeed the same. Perhaps I should stick to 6 card, scry a card hands, because the scry often seems more important than trusting your deck to not give more of what you already have in hand. When I draw certain things, like a 3rd and 4th copy of Knight of the Reliquary, I often think about what is the actual chance of drawing my 3rd and 4th copy of it before drawing a single land in a 22 land deck. Maybe it's time that I actually put my math skills to work? That way I'll at least know.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Honestly, the format often feels like a goldfish format of everyone trying to goldfish their opponents quicker than they get goldfished. If anyone stumbles, mulligans too deep, or keeps a bad hand, they don't stand a chance. Today I played with 8 people playing Jeskai Control, UW Control, Mardu, and Jund. These decks did not have super quick goldfish hands, but they goldfished in another way - trying to draw 4 Path to Exile or 4 Lightning Bolt by turn 4 so I don't kill them. Some people may talk about super intricate board states, but this is what Modern often comes down to.
If our definition of "goldfish" has come to include interacting with opposing board states in a way that is favorable to the interactive player, then the term has lost all meaning. By that definition, I think we can safely say that all Magic formats are goldfish formats. You are describing a board state that all Magic decks want to produce, regardless of format or deck style, because it is the state that maximizes their chances of winning. Comments like this strike me as more of a bitter reflection of recent frustrations rather than an actual insight into the format and game. Whenever I've made comments like this, it's because I'm struggling at some element of the game and am trying to deflect personal attention from that element to an external narrative.
This is especially true because, as I have showed repeatedly in literally dozens of posts, the same top Modern players continue to have success in this format to the tune of a ~65% MWP, which is incidentally the same rough MWP ceiling as the top Legacy players. Reid Duke's Modern MWP is about the same as his Limited MWP over the past 2 years at high level events (68% vs. 70%). Manfield's are the same at 63%, including Standard (Duke's Standard MWP is lower at around 55%). This is not a coincidence. These top players are applying a skillset to enjoy consistent success. If one is not experiencing that success, it is not because of external factors beyond their control. It is because of personal areas of improvement that have not yet been reached.
I encourage anyone reading this to stop focusing on external explanations for competitive shortcomings (e.g. "Modern is a goldfish/topdeck/variance/matchup lottery format"). Instead, try to identify the concrete skills top players are consistently leveraging into regular success. Focusing on appropriate mulligan strategy is a great start to this in.
EDIT: I'll even concede that Modern may well be a goldfish format in that proactive decks may be better than reactive ones. Maybe the more proactive a deck is, the better it does. I haven't done an analysis to suggest this is or is not the case in the aggregate. But if that is the case, it doesn't change a thing. One must still acknowledge that a top contingent of players has still figured out a reliable way to thrive in this alleged goldfish format. One must also acknowledge that a huge contingent of less successful players still has not figured out the key to success. So if you are not having that success, goldfish format or not, my advice is the same: figure out what skills the best players are using to succeed in such a format. Practice those skills. Because it's not a random assortment of players goldfishing to the top tables and regular high MWP finishes. It's the same group of veterans using skills that worse players don't have and/or aren't leveraging.
Calling interactive plays "goldfish" is no different than the plethora of players who believe that Aggro and Combo have the same percentage of the pie because they put Burn, Infect, Affinity, Bogles, and Hollow One as Combo decks. I shouldn't have said, "goldfish" per se. I should have said drawing certain specific cards that are super good in the matchup. I could have easily played Bogles, Grishoalbrand, or Titanshift and laughed at the amount of Path to Exiles drawn, even if half of them were left on top with Serum Visions or Search for Azcanta. I doubt that all 13 of them were deck manipulated, especially since I only saw around 5 Serum Visions this tournament.
I personally wanted to test my skill, using a deck that I knew would have a tough time beating Jeskai or Grixis. But I can still win with the card Collected Company, not getting stuck on the original 2-3 lands, not getting mana flooded, or drawing stuff like Knight of the Reliquary with Tireless Tracker. It just didn't work out for me.
I am not saying that Modern being a goldfish format or having a lot of variance is the reason that I am doing poorly. I have identified some reasons. I need to play decks like Humans/Hollow One/Affinity more often. That's one of the reasons. My win percentage before kavu.ru crashed in Modern was nearly 66%. In other formats like Draft and Standard, my win percentage is waaaay higher. But I will also admit that in Sealed and Legacy, my win percentage is a lot WORSE. I will also say that I've gotten what I've put into most of these formats, but right now I play Modern at least 5 times per week and I'm having trouble finishing off tournaments or doing as well as I know I can do (because I've done it before). I still am not to the level that I was before when I literally would realize every single play mistake that I made in tournaments, which was minimal. I would be super upset if a play mistake allowed my opponent to have 3 straight draws to let him back in the game when I didn't need to play like that. I'm still not back on that level anymore. Maybe the Modern card pool has just gotten too big to do that. At the beginning with Jund/Twin/Affinity, it was much easier to do. A high level of diversity hasn't helped it for me.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
people build their decks in a manner that gives them the best chance for it to perform a certain way. that is as far as any sort of faith should go. sometimes you need to peel out, and sometimes your opponent does. if your definition of goldfishing extends so far so as to be the same thing as wanting your deck to work properly. well...im not sure that means much. for every deck and every game each player has some sort of strategy. progressing your own while stifling your opponent's (which includes just killing them) is functionally just a description of the game itself.
tbh it sounds like a psychological issue more than anything else. having a history of success, and gaining confidence from that is good. but you dont wanna be beating yourself up, especially when it leads you deflecting responsibility.
im sure youve heard the adage 'people make their own luck'. winning tournaments will always require you to run hot to some degree, or at least avoiding others that run hot. however pros and modern specialists prove time and time again that they can consistently place well in the format because the decisions they make, in and outside of games, are better than their opponents.
so logic dictates that if you are confident of your skills, and skill determines long term success; then you should be confident that you can be successful. im sure if you chose a deck and stuck to if for a while that you will get back to your winning ways.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
FCG, have you considered that in a less Diverse Modern (Jund/Twin/Affinity Pillars), Draft (with Archetypes being limited) and Standard (traditionally low diversity) you have success because you can 'know' the decks, the match ups, and simply how to play them properly because your commitment to success is higher?
Are you perhaps not 'doing your homework' in Modern to the degree that is required or is the diversity simply too much for the decks you play to account for?
You often speak of variance, but you are not playing the decks that deal with variance the best.
I mean I follow H0lydiva on twitter, and the consistency with which Bloo puts up 4-1 results against the best MTGO Grinders is hilarious.
Play a deck for a month, see what happens, are you on MTGO??
FCG, have you considered that in a less Diverse Modern (Jund/Twin/Affinity Pillars), Draft (with Archetypes being limited) and Standard (traditionally low diversity) you have success because you can 'know' the decks, the match ups, and simply how to play them properly because your commitment to success is higher?
Are you perhaps not 'doing your homework' in Modern to the degree that is required or is the diversity simply too much for the decks you play to account for?
You often speak of variance, but you are not playing the decks that deal with variance the best.
I mean I follow H0lydiva on twitter, and the consistency with which Bloo puts up 4-1 results against the best MTGO Grinders is hilarious.
Play a deck for a month, see what happens, are you on MTGO??
Yeah, I realize that a less Diverse format is part of the reason, but I play Modern so often right now, I expect to NOT lose in the top 4 of a 1K or go only 3-1 at FNM. I played Standard for the first time since Temur Energy, playing Mono Red - a deck that I admit to being bad at the archetype, and went 3-0-1 split. Why did I do better in that format, playing the first time since Temur Energy, than in Modern? Then I lost in a finals of a PPTQ and the top 4 of a PPTQ with Mono Red the next 2 weeks. I don't even know half of the cards since Amonkhet and even barely know Amonkhet. Of course I know the ones that pertain to Modern though... (Also I should point out that Mono Red is "not even good anymore." That's what I hear from everybody, even if my team thinks it can still get there.)
I don't feel like I'm not doing my homework in Modern. I just usually think of what my opponent's only out is and they draw it. Often it can be 1 of 2 or 3 cards, so I'm not saying it's a 1 outer, but it's a sequence that I rarely see when Pros do a League on MTGO. I always think, "their opponent got this and this for sure, but then it rarely happens." I even see Pros get a bit salty when it happens because it is rare. For me, it is not rare, so I rarely get too salty. When my opponent played 4 Path to Exile by turn 4, you may think I didn't notice. I did. I just kind of expected it since Lightning Bolt doesn't kill a 4/4 KNight of the Reliquary.
I do feel that some of the decks that deal with variance the best are not in the best place in Modern right now, but I am willing to give Humans/Hollow One/Affinity another chance.
I'm gonna need a deck list of Holy's Bloo in PMs if you can. I don't play MTGO and I realize that my game could get much better. I just don't want another addiction (paper Magic is enough) in my life. I could easily see myself playing 3-5 Leagues per day and I really shouldn't be doing that.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
PSA: Said it before, saying it again, Anyone who is serious about improving at Magic, especially Modern, should 100% be playing MTGO. Unless you have an LGS with a lot of skilled players on diverse archetypes that you can play with for multiple hours on any day at any time (or a testing team to that effect), there is no substitute for MTGO reps and Leagues.
Also, @FCG, I know you are frustrated by a perceived streak of bad luck, but it is unhelpful for your morale and improvement to focus on examples like an opponent topdecking 4 Paths over 4 turns (or any other unlikely scenario that is similar). You're a rational dude with a mathematical mind. We both know the problem is not that you are cursed with bad luck. Better to focus on actual issues that will actually improve performance.
As an example of how to reframe this, I lost a bunch of games as Cheeri0s because my Jeskai opponent topdecked an absurd amount of removal despite my best efforts to sequence to my likeliest outs. Rather than be upset about luck, I realized I had a bigger issue at stake: dead draws. My Jeskai opponent had a deck packed with cantrips, fetches, removal, Snaps, fetches to thin, etc. I was stuck with *****ty equipment draws for many turns. The moral for me: I need to play decks with more live draws. Or build Cheeri0s for more live draws. Either way, I didn't blame the low chance of their topdecks that beat multiple engines, Silences, and a Swan Song, which I later calculated at less than 3%.
For what it's worth, I'd like to share some experiences from my own.
Let me kick off with: There is no best deck currently. That's why modern is such a healthy place at the moment. With that in mind, the most important lesson I learned is to find what YOU love to do with magic. Unless offcourse, it's your main source of income that is.
I'm a brewer pur-sang and I don't like playing the same decks as some other guy, so I prefer rogue builds. Restarted my (competitive) modern magic life with Zoo en went on to brew with CoCo. Was on the Bant Humans(knightfall) train very early and it has developed into what is now the top tier deck in modern using Vial. I felt truely part of the deck and am still proud of it. It is very strong indeed, and chalenging. So only if you know how to play against the decks you face.
I've still got the deck sleeved up amd ready to go, but the brewer in me has grown tired of it. I still keep a close eye to everything new which comes out, but the brewer in me went on. Right now I'm on BUG. A deck which sees 0% of play in any competitive field but I love it to bits, trying out differem bullets and tuning the list. Though my mind is allready drifted on with the release of Dominaria, fueling an old idea I had.
Maybe standard is the hetter format for me, but I grew a little more concious about investments in magic.
I guess what i'm trying to say is, Don't forget it's about fun! Find something you love and master it. If it's winning in a competitive environment, then unfortunately, there is nog go to deck. Which I think is great. But given your recejt resuot in the Humans topic, you have found something
I hope you find peace in what you are trying to do, and like some others have rightfully said, sometimes a break from the thing that is tormenting you is all you need.
To be honest, I feel lost in Modern since Splinter Twin's ban. I never had a great substitute for it, except maybe Grixis Delver with Gitaxian Probe.
Now, Search for azcanta made me smile a lot, and I am enjoying the card A LOT.
But, I feel that Modern's variance since end of 2015 is a lot bigger.
Modern is great as far as Wizards criteria are concerned: It is diverse, you can have many different decks(although Humans may be the default best one), you can see nearly any deck winning events.
But! I feel lost because the variance is real. I recently played at some LGS's, where I drew against 2 abysmal matchups every time, or drew against 8th/9th hate pieces(turn 2 Blood Moon, Lantern godhands, etc). I had brilliant days as well, but only with a GDS variant.
I kind of feel lost in Modern, because if you want to do well, you have to go linear. I mean, you can play a control deck, but it's 10 times more difficult to do well, because those decks have no free wins at all.
I feel that every deck that you choose in Modern, has some ultra bad matchups.
Even if there is an exception. Lantern. You can win everybody if you are not going to play vs Tron, but people do not play the deck so much for some silly reason. If you like the archetype, I am sure that you are not going to feel lost in Modern with that broken deck.
Also, I feel lost, because ideally I would like to play a good tempo deck. There is not a great tempo deck in Modern atm.
Last, but not least, 8th/9th editions are giving me a lot of feel bad moments, in scenarios that noone can do anything(ultra fast Blood Moons, or Bridges, or T4 Ulamogs, resolved Chokes after eot Boil that I had to counter, etc)
Anyways, lots of different thoughts of mine, this was rather a rampling.
I try to keep my mood at acceptable levels, because modern is chaotic and a million things can happen. Ultimately, I do love the format, but I wish that it was a bit more skilltesting than it is now. And it certainly was during Modern's greatest era imo, end of 2015.
Ideally, for me to be satisfied again, it would take a Splinter Twin unban. Whether or not it should happen, it's a whole different story. I am trying to be objective here.
PS: Play Lantern if you like the deck. It's bonkers and it only has 50/50+ matchups (with A LOT of 70-30s), outside of Tron.
Every time that you lost the game, if you didn't play vs Tron, you know exactly the reason why you lost the game.
It's so good, it's laughable.
A video was posted today that may warm your soul. https://youtu.be/WmWC2aEObG8
It's no banned list Modern, UR Twin vs UR Delver.
A video was posted today that may warm your soul. https://youtu.be/WmWC2aEObG8
It's no banned list Modern, UR Twin vs UR Delver.
I'm not going to lie; that Splinter Twin off the top by Todd in Game 1 brought back memories. (mostly of me losing when my opponent was hellbent and I had lethal next turn, )
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
A video was posted today that may warm your soul. https://youtu.be/WmWC2aEObG8
It's no banned list Modern, UR Twin vs UR Delver.
I'm not going to lie; that Splinter Twin off the top by Todd in Game 1 brought back memories. (mostly of me losing when my opponent was hellbent and I had lethal next turn, )
People always remember those moments and forget all the times the Exarch just dies, or the enchantment fizzles, or the deck is simply overrun. This video also reminds how disruption backed by a quick clock is the worst thing for Twin to deal with.
I've been fairly jaded with Modern since Twin leaving as well and this video made me feel warm and fuzzy inside. Play Breach Moon has been fun lately, and the most similar to the old days.
Yeah, KCI is super resilient to all hate except Stony Silence and RIP. RIP gets beaten by Claim and EE, and you can even Stirrings for the EE for more redundancy. Wurmcoil and Claim beat Silence. That's a really hard deck to play well though; it's easy to screw up even a goldfish turn, let alone when the opponent is interacting.
I play a LOT of Cheeri0s and it was actually consistent before Assistant. It's better now and I was wrong about Assistant's impact, which I thought would be minimal but actually improves the deck by a notable degree. My big problem with Cheeri0s is the comparative lack of lines and decision-making relative to something like Storm, KCI, or Bloom. You have a LOT of dead draws in the deck, relatively low velocity without an engine, and not too many areas to leverage play skill. The biggest decisions are often (but not always), a) do I mulligan a borderline hand?, b) when do I go for this combo?, c) do I stop during the combo and wait/cast engine #2/cast a cantrip?, d) when do I switch to a Retract/Grapeshot kill with no engine, and e) when do I go for Retract/draw just to draw cards? Most of those answers are pretty easy though and end up requiring fewer decisions than I would hope. This puts you in a disproportionate number matchups where you are deterministically dead to anything but a topdeck, which sucks for players that want to leverage skill in a game. But overall, it's a fun deck that is surprisingly competitive.
It is similar to Grishoalbrand, although I'll admit that I still make mistakes to this very day. But I do some things that many players don't even see or realize, mostly from making mistakes in those situations many, many times, lol. Combo decks are not super tough for me to play.
*I would say that my weakness is mostly playing Aggro or Burn type decks. Playing Control for 8 years straight a while ago made me not know how to do creature combat. I learned some from Limited, but it didn't come up quite as much or was not as intricate as Constructed. I've also shied away from these sort of decks because I'm always afraid to run out of gas. Opponent at 2 life. Yep. They draw 5 straight gas cards while I peel my 6-10th lands.
**I tried Humans last night and I was unimpressed. GR Eldrazi went toe to toe with me when he had more than 4 cards, Hollow One nearly beat me despite a really good draw from me (I'm not denying that he also had a good draw), I technically lost to Lantern because I drew a million lands before Lantern and Shredder got aboard and then the other million after that obviously, and I got turn 3 Tronned twice on the play in game 1 and draw in game 2 and fumbled with a land drop to not win game 1 still. I know we shouldn't be influenced by results, especially from 1 tournament, but I am not super impressed right now.
(If you haven't guessed right now, my personality type is pessimistic. I played Mono Red at 2 PPTQs and an FNM recently, losing in the finals of a PPTQ and the top 4, while going 3-0-1 at FNM. I had TOP DECKS to win 3 times in these tournaments. I've played several Modern decks for over 6 months and don't remember top decking to win 3 times with any of them. I don't include drawing 7 cards from Griselbrand and getting that last Nourishing Shoal; that's 7 cards, not 1.)
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)I don't think it's tough in your average tournament or game. But it gets very tough in a few situations. The first situation is when it's Round 11 and you're tired and mentally fatigued. This is even tougher on MTGO where there is a good amount of clicking you need to do relatively quickly. That's where mistakes can happen if your opponent lets you play stuff out. Another situation is when an opponent knows the proper moment to disrupt your game plan and you need to recover under pressure and/or during a combo sequence. But if you personally think the deck is easy, I encourage you to just play it. It's SIGNIFICANTLY better than its metagame share indicates.
I know you are pessimistic and sort of feel like you've resigned yourself to this narrative of the thread. I'm just going to reiterate that there is a contingent of Modern players on MTGO, SCG circuits, and GP/PPTQ circuits who have consistent success in this format. If nothing else, try to replicate what they are doing and you will eventually have more success. My own advice: the single best way to get better at this game and format is to iterate on MTGO. It is the best way to practice and improve and it's not particularly close. I'll also say that no one, yourself included, should try a deck for a single tournament and dismiss it. There's not a discipline on earth where you'd try something new for one session/tournament/day/class/etc. and then throw it away after that one attempt. ESPECIALLY if better practitioners are advocating for it. To use another hobby example, imagine if a jujitsu practitioner learned a new takedown, tried it in a tournament, and never landed it once. Let's make it worse and say they lost every match in that tournament and the takedown was a major contributor to their loss (e.g. their positioning was bad after the failed attempt). That practitioner would be flat out wrong to stop trying it just because it was a 0% success rate in a single event.
But still, it's amazing that he does well with Mono Blue Tron, just like it's amazing that Reid does well right now with Jund, just like it's amazing that 2 Jund players top 8ed the SCG Louisville. I'll give you that.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)The fact that I can't seem to find my thing is frustrating, but I guess I'll just keep the decks together for when and if my kids want to play.
so now we just have a whole lot of decks that win and lose about the same amount, but each being kept in check because of very noticeable weaknesses that are difficult to overcome when people choose to exploit it. add to this that the metagame shifts at the drop of a hat and you end up in in a situation where players pick up decks, hone in on what makes them bad, then fall into this pattern of looking for the next best thing because 'the grass is always greener'.
you see this from pros who dont specialize in the format, from new players getting their first competitive level deck, and everything in between.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)tl;dr: If shock (/anyone) can win with Blue Tron, you (/anyone) can definitely win with Grishoalbrand (/whatever other niche-occupying Modern deck). Just gotta put in the reps like everybody else.
Counter-Cat
Colorless Eldrazi Stompy
I am not saying that my failings in Modern are on "outside variables." I am the only one responsible for my own failings in Modern. I know that. I was asking about how I can do better. So far, the responses that I've gotten have been very good. I think I "liked" about 5 posts on the first page. I actually didn't do too badly with Grishoalbrand, but after losing once to Humans (after previously beating it 3 times), I realized that it was a poor matchup (when I tested it further myself). I didn't know that originally because sometimes you always draw well vs. a certain deck, so you think your deck beats it. But you're wrong.
I am not saying KCI is easy to play. It is easier for some than others. I wouldn't expect someone who has never played an Eggs style deck to pick it up in 1 day when I've played Eggs variants in the past. I still hold that Burn is a super tough deck for me to play perfectly. Aggro is also a huge weakness of mine. I just am not used to playing these strategies. Also, I am super sure that I'm not as good playing Control as I was in the middle of playing only those decks for 8 years straight. Pretty sure about that, but also know that I can beat the average person at it because I've done so at low level competition, like a Store Championship or FNM.
I just really need to get over the hump. I've just had trouble finishing off tournaments, ie. getting first place, and I want to figure out what it is about me that is sabotaging that. Maybe the fear of drawing 6 lands or 6 non-lands is making it a self-fulfilling prophecy? In the last 2 weeks, do you know how many times someone has said to me, "damn, those were rough draws?" Had it with Humans too. Kept a 4 land hand with double Kitesail Freebooter and Meddling Mage vs. Tron (with Horizon Canopy). Drew 4 lands and an Aether Vial and lost to top decked Karn, Ballista, and Ulamog. I needed to do something better to win that game. I just can't figure out what right now. But I will figure it out. I'm not stupid. Once I figure things like that out, I will be a bit more stronger on my game.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)I assume you knew it was Tron because of how I read the "vs. Tron" in your statement. If not, that's a separate discussion. But if so, that's the kind of slow, no-clock hand that Tron eats alive. Tron has amazing topdecks, incredibly velocity, and a wealth of threats. It's going to overcome that scattershot disruption in most games. Assuming you're on the play, here's that clock in action:
T1: 0 damage (20)
T2: Freebooter, 0 damage (20)
T3: Freebooter, 1 damage (19)
T4: Mage, 2 damage (17)
T5: Swing with team (13)
T6: Swing with team (9)
You see where this is going. Without an actual clock, this hand is way too slow and gives Tron too many draws to recover. Swapping T3/T4 Freebooter/Mage doesn't help it either; the hand is totally reliant on drawing a real clock like Lieutenant or topdecking a Champion on T2/T3.
That's the second problem. You are not likely to draw that clock over this game. Your dead draws are all the non-Canopy lands, all Vials, Hierarchs, Freebooters 3 and 4, and 4 Reflector Mage (assuming his threat isn't Wurmcoil). So from your first draw onward, you had 16 dead lands (19 base - 1 Canopy in hand - 2 land in hand), 4 dead Vials, 4 dead Hierarchs (don't add to damage), 2 dead Freebooters, and 4 dead Reflectors for a total of 30 dead cards and 23 live cards. Champion topdecks also would have sucked past T3 if you already played some Humans, so those represent more dead draws. You also don't want to draw T4/T5 Thalia. Of course Tron had time to draw into a gameplan. All Tron does is thin the deck and see more cards.
Now, if you didn't know your opponent was on Tron and thought this was a blind keep in Modern, that's something to discuss. I would've shipped it because it has no clock and gets eaten by too many proactive decks (what the heck does this do against Burn, Affinity, H1, or Elves?), but there are reasonable arguments on both sides. But if you knew it was Tron in the first place, knowingly keeping that hand put you in a statistically unlikely position to win.
In the end, the skill to practice based on this example is mulliganing. I know this because it's a skill I am currently working on and I have lost a lot of games to similar decisions. More intentional mulligan decisions has improved my gameplay recently and I'm always excited to discuss it.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Then I guess I was stupid to assume that there were 3 more Meddling Mage, 4 Champion of the Parish, 4 Thalia's Lieutenant, 4 Phantasmal Image, and 4 Mantis Rider in the deck. I have to assume that he has triple Karn Liberated AND another threat that I have to name with Meddling Mage? Is there a larger chance of drawing 4 more land and a Vial than a single card of those 19 cards that I named? Horizon Canopy is a redraw eventually at worst. When you play against Tron, you cannot beat them with your opening hand unless you consistently mull to hands that have double Champion of the Parish, Thalia's Lieutenant, and 2 land. If you can mulligan to that, more power to you. I can't.
I guess I was just stupid because the chances for me to draw 4 of the remaining 15 land in the deck is higher than the chances of drawing 1 of 39 creatures. Sometimes you have to have faith in your deck when you know your opponent has a hand that has Tron on 3 with multiple threats every game you've played him.
If I had not known what he was playing, I would have mulliganed it. I knew he was playing Tron, so I essentially "knew" his hand was Tron pieces 1 and 2, Map, Karn, Ugin, and 2 other cards, presumably some land and something else. If I nab Karn and Ugin, I can get into a top deck war in which I already have some stuff on board. If you can think of something that gets him out of this situation, you're right. There's always draws that get him out of any situation. Ugin, Walking Ballista, Oblivion Stone in some order after his turn 3 Tron gets him out of anything I can throw at him unless you see me doing Meddling Mage into Meddling Mage into double Meddling Mage into 2 more (Image). I can't mulligan, assuming I'll get that or the triple Champion of the Parish hand.
My bad. I identified the wrong U Tron player. Shiiiet. You actually made me remember now that Jaberwocki plays a LOT of different decks on MTGO. I don't play MTGO, so I should stop talking about it like I know it, lol. @oldmanmemory
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)I don't think you're stupid and didn't say you were. You just made a mistake. I can identify a half dozen mulligan mistakes I made in the last week of Leagues too. You are correct that you had 3 more Mages, 4 Champions, 4 Lieutenants, 4 Images, and 4 Riders in the deck, i.e. 19 live draws. Let's also assume the Champs are live draws at any point in the next 3 turns, when we know they are only live on T2/T3 (too slow on T4+). You then had your opening grip of 7, which leaves 34 cards unaccounted for. We'll assume the Canopies are also live, and you have 3 more of those left, for 22 live draws total. That means you have 31 "dead" draws in the deck compared with 22 "live" ones. Those are not great odds. I'd rather gamble on a better hand in a deck that mulligans pretty well. Many players make bad mulligan decisions so it's an easy place to look if someone is serious about improving.
The other way to look at this is as an anomaly and not a mistake. As in, you made the right choice in keeping the hand and trusting the cumulative probability of drawing live by T4, but it just didn't work out in this one game. That's fine too! But that viewpoint is completely at odds with a quote you made in the previous post that started this exchange:
You're describing a mulligan problem here. You have a self-proclaimed "fear" of certain hands, you have people talking to you about "rough draws," and you kept a clockless hand against a deck that needs to be clocked. If I had that experience, decided it was part of an issue, and then wanted to diagnose what that issue was, I would definitely describe it as a mulligan issue. Or you can decide that this wasn't part of an issue and was merely an anomaly, in which case there's nothing to discuss. You just framed it as an issue so I pointed to the likeliest explanation for that issue.
Framing this differently, what do you think the issues are? We all know the issue isn't bad luck or bad matchups. Those aren't real issues that hold people back. Those are excuses players make to obscure actual errors in their gameplay; I'm not saying you are doing that but we all know at least a dozen players who do. Personally, here are my own play issues I am trying to resolve, none of which are luck-based, matchup-based, or external-factor based:
Honestly, the format often feels like a goldfish format of everyone trying to goldfish their opponents quicker than they get goldfished. If anyone stumbles, mulligans too deep, or keeps a bad hand, they don't stand a chance. Today I played with 8 people playing Jeskai Control, UW Control, Mardu, and Jund. These decks did not have super quick goldfish hands, but they goldfished in another way - trying to draw 4 Path to Exile or 4 Lightning Bolt by turn 4 so I don't kill them. Some people may talk about super intricate board states, but this is what Modern often comes down to.
I will admit that I do not mulligan as often as I should. Sometimes I try to have faith in the deck because I assume players that do well have ... faith in their decks. Losing a game because you mulliganed to 3 or because you kept a loose hand still results in a game loss. It is indeed the same. Perhaps I should stick to 6 card, scry a card hands, because the scry often seems more important than trusting your deck to not give more of what you already have in hand. When I draw certain things, like a 3rd and 4th copy of Knight of the Reliquary, I often think about what is the actual chance of drawing my 3rd and 4th copy of it before drawing a single land in a 22 land deck. Maybe it's time that I actually put my math skills to work? That way I'll at least know.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)If our definition of "goldfish" has come to include interacting with opposing board states in a way that is favorable to the interactive player, then the term has lost all meaning. By that definition, I think we can safely say that all Magic formats are goldfish formats. You are describing a board state that all Magic decks want to produce, regardless of format or deck style, because it is the state that maximizes their chances of winning. Comments like this strike me as more of a bitter reflection of recent frustrations rather than an actual insight into the format and game. Whenever I've made comments like this, it's because I'm struggling at some element of the game and am trying to deflect personal attention from that element to an external narrative.
This is especially true because, as I have showed repeatedly in literally dozens of posts, the same top Modern players continue to have success in this format to the tune of a ~65% MWP, which is incidentally the same rough MWP ceiling as the top Legacy players. Reid Duke's Modern MWP is about the same as his Limited MWP over the past 2 years at high level events (68% vs. 70%). Manfield's are the same at 63%, including Standard (Duke's Standard MWP is lower at around 55%). This is not a coincidence. These top players are applying a skillset to enjoy consistent success. If one is not experiencing that success, it is not because of external factors beyond their control. It is because of personal areas of improvement that have not yet been reached.
I encourage anyone reading this to stop focusing on external explanations for competitive shortcomings (e.g. "Modern is a goldfish/topdeck/variance/matchup lottery format"). Instead, try to identify the concrete skills top players are consistently leveraging into regular success. Focusing on appropriate mulligan strategy is a great start to this in.
EDIT: I'll even concede that Modern may well be a goldfish format in that proactive decks may be better than reactive ones. Maybe the more proactive a deck is, the better it does. I haven't done an analysis to suggest this is or is not the case in the aggregate. But if that is the case, it doesn't change a thing. One must still acknowledge that a top contingent of players has still figured out a reliable way to thrive in this alleged goldfish format. One must also acknowledge that a huge contingent of less successful players still has not figured out the key to success. So if you are not having that success, goldfish format or not, my advice is the same: figure out what skills the best players are using to succeed in such a format. Practice those skills. Because it's not a random assortment of players goldfishing to the top tables and regular high MWP finishes. It's the same group of veterans using skills that worse players don't have and/or aren't leveraging.
I personally wanted to test my skill, using a deck that I knew would have a tough time beating Jeskai or Grixis. But I can still win with the card Collected Company, not getting stuck on the original 2-3 lands, not getting mana flooded, or drawing stuff like Knight of the Reliquary with Tireless Tracker. It just didn't work out for me.
I am not saying that Modern being a goldfish format or having a lot of variance is the reason that I am doing poorly. I have identified some reasons. I need to play decks like Humans/Hollow One/Affinity more often. That's one of the reasons. My win percentage before kavu.ru crashed in Modern was nearly 66%. In other formats like Draft and Standard, my win percentage is waaaay higher. But I will also admit that in Sealed and Legacy, my win percentage is a lot WORSE. I will also say that I've gotten what I've put into most of these formats, but right now I play Modern at least 5 times per week and I'm having trouble finishing off tournaments or doing as well as I know I can do (because I've done it before). I still am not to the level that I was before when I literally would realize every single play mistake that I made in tournaments, which was minimal. I would be super upset if a play mistake allowed my opponent to have 3 straight draws to let him back in the game when I didn't need to play like that. I'm still not back on that level anymore. Maybe the Modern card pool has just gotten too big to do that. At the beginning with Jund/Twin/Affinity, it was much easier to do. A high level of diversity hasn't helped it for me.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)tbh it sounds like a psychological issue more than anything else. having a history of success, and gaining confidence from that is good. but you dont wanna be beating yourself up, especially when it leads you deflecting responsibility.
im sure youve heard the adage 'people make their own luck'. winning tournaments will always require you to run hot to some degree, or at least avoiding others that run hot. however pros and modern specialists prove time and time again that they can consistently place well in the format because the decisions they make, in and outside of games, are better than their opponents.
so logic dictates that if you are confident of your skills, and skill determines long term success; then you should be confident that you can be successful. im sure if you chose a deck and stuck to if for a while that you will get back to your winning ways.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Are you perhaps not 'doing your homework' in Modern to the degree that is required or is the diversity simply too much for the decks you play to account for?
You often speak of variance, but you are not playing the decks that deal with variance the best.
I mean I follow H0lydiva on twitter, and the consistency with which Bloo puts up 4-1 results against the best MTGO Grinders is hilarious.
Play a deck for a month, see what happens, are you on MTGO??
Spirits
Yeah, I realize that a less Diverse format is part of the reason, but I play Modern so often right now, I expect to NOT lose in the top 4 of a 1K or go only 3-1 at FNM. I played Standard for the first time since Temur Energy, playing Mono Red - a deck that I admit to being bad at the archetype, and went 3-0-1 split. Why did I do better in that format, playing the first time since Temur Energy, than in Modern? Then I lost in a finals of a PPTQ and the top 4 of a PPTQ with Mono Red the next 2 weeks. I don't even know half of the cards since Amonkhet and even barely know Amonkhet. Of course I know the ones that pertain to Modern though... (Also I should point out that Mono Red is "not even good anymore." That's what I hear from everybody, even if my team thinks it can still get there.)
I don't feel like I'm not doing my homework in Modern. I just usually think of what my opponent's only out is and they draw it. Often it can be 1 of 2 or 3 cards, so I'm not saying it's a 1 outer, but it's a sequence that I rarely see when Pros do a League on MTGO. I always think, "their opponent got this and this for sure, but then it rarely happens." I even see Pros get a bit salty when it happens because it is rare. For me, it is not rare, so I rarely get too salty. When my opponent played 4 Path to Exile by turn 4, you may think I didn't notice. I did. I just kind of expected it since Lightning Bolt doesn't kill a 4/4 KNight of the Reliquary.
I do feel that some of the decks that deal with variance the best are not in the best place in Modern right now, but I am willing to give Humans/Hollow One/Affinity another chance.
I'm gonna need a deck list of Holy's Bloo in PMs if you can. I don't play MTGO and I realize that my game could get much better. I just don't want another addiction (paper Magic is enough) in my life. I could easily see myself playing 3-5 Leagues per day and I really shouldn't be doing that.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Spirits
Also, @FCG, I know you are frustrated by a perceived streak of bad luck, but it is unhelpful for your morale and improvement to focus on examples like an opponent topdecking 4 Paths over 4 turns (or any other unlikely scenario that is similar). You're a rational dude with a mathematical mind. We both know the problem is not that you are cursed with bad luck. Better to focus on actual issues that will actually improve performance.
As an example of how to reframe this, I lost a bunch of games as Cheeri0s because my Jeskai opponent topdecked an absurd amount of removal despite my best efforts to sequence to my likeliest outs. Rather than be upset about luck, I realized I had a bigger issue at stake: dead draws. My Jeskai opponent had a deck packed with cantrips, fetches, removal, Snaps, fetches to thin, etc. I was stuck with *****ty equipment draws for many turns. The moral for me: I need to play decks with more live draws. Or build Cheeri0s for more live draws. Either way, I didn't blame the low chance of their topdecks that beat multiple engines, Silences, and a Swan Song, which I later calculated at less than 3%.
Let me kick off with: There is no best deck currently. That's why modern is such a healthy place at the moment. With that in mind, the most important lesson I learned is to find what YOU love to do with magic. Unless offcourse, it's your main source of income that is.
I'm a brewer pur-sang and I don't like playing the same decks as some other guy, so I prefer rogue builds. Restarted my (competitive) modern magic life with Zoo en went on to brew with CoCo. Was on the Bant Humans(knightfall) train very early and it has developed into what is now the top tier deck in modern using Vial. I felt truely part of the deck and am still proud of it. It is very strong indeed, and chalenging. So only if you know how to play against the decks you face.
I've still got the deck sleeved up amd ready to go, but the brewer in me has grown tired of it. I still keep a close eye to everything new which comes out, but the brewer in me went on. Right now I'm on BUG. A deck which sees 0% of play in any competitive field but I love it to bits, trying out differem bullets and tuning the list. Though my mind is allready drifted on with the release of Dominaria, fueling an old idea I had.
Maybe standard is the hetter format for me, but I grew a little more concious about investments in magic.
I guess what i'm trying to say is, Don't forget it's about fun! Find something you love and master it. If it's winning in a competitive environment, then unfortunately, there is nog go to deck. Which I think is great. But given your recejt resuot in the Humans topic, you have found something
I hope you find peace in what you are trying to do, and like some others have rightfully said, sometimes a break from the thing that is tormenting you is all you need.
Modern: WUBRG Humans - GBW Traverse - GWU Knightfall - GRW Bushwhacker Zoo -
A video was posted today that may warm your soul. https://youtu.be/WmWC2aEObG8
It's no banned list Modern, UR Twin vs UR Delver.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
I'm not going to lie; that Splinter Twin off the top by Todd in Game 1 brought back memories. (mostly of me losing when my opponent was hellbent and I had lethal next turn, )
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)People always remember those moments and forget all the times the Exarch just dies, or the enchantment fizzles, or the deck is simply overrun. This video also reminds how disruption backed by a quick clock is the worst thing for Twin to deal with.
I've been fairly jaded with Modern since Twin leaving as well and this video made me feel warm and fuzzy inside. Play Breach Moon has been fun lately, and the most similar to the old days.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate