1. Twin allegedly reduced overall diversity. For Twin to be unbanned, it must be shown that Twin's unban will not reduce overall diversity.
First of all, I disagree heavily with unbanning of Twin needing any burden of proof.
This attitude may be the single biggest reason I want twin to stay banned. Most pro-twin posters here carry this same "I don't need to prove anything" argument. It is already banned, so if you want it back, give some rational statements with evidence to back them up. You then gave an argument with conjecture, personal anecdotes, and appeals to authority in the form of pro players which aren't proper evidence.
Like I care what Reid Duke thinks.
Its not that we 'dont need to prove anything'. Its that when it comes to the first 3 points, ONLY WIZARDS can prove it.
As you so eloquently put it 'Like I care what Reid Duke thinks.' Well are you going to care any more for what idSurge things? What tronix thinks? Not a chance.
One of the reasons I really hate the Twin discussion is that many people seem to assume that anyone who is in any way anti-Twin unban was also in favor of the ban to begin with. I wrote numerous articles denouncing the ban at the time it was announced, notably this one that showed all the serious problems with the ban: http://modernnexus.com/last-word-splinter-twin-banning/
But that's all in the past now and people who want Twin unbanned need to make their case. And between the different ways to build that case, it's probably much more effective to show that the Twin ban did not accomplish its stated aims than it is to show the Twin ban was wrongful in the first place. People have tried to argue the latter to death and it's not effective. See the last few years of non-stop Twin memes and vitriol across the Modern community. It's time for a new approach, and I think that approach needs to be showing that the ban did not accomplish its stated aims.
Incidentally, this is exactly what got Nacatl unbanned after its initial rebanning. It is also how BBE was unbanned. Those cards were not unbanned because Wizards revisited their initial rationale and identified flaws in that rationale which exonerated the cards. Rather, they checked to see if the cards would be okay in the current Modern state and if they accomplished their initial objectives. This method looks at the format AFTER the ban, not the format at the time of the ban. This is where Twin proponents need to start with their own case.
i can always appreciate your commentary. the bolded part is what people need to focus on. also i remember reading that article, but had forgotten how comprehensive it was. i recommend that anyone on either side of the twin camp read it.
most importantly are the aspects pertaining to the modern pro-tour. its not something ive seen much commentary on, but its existence in the past had a clear role in how the ban list was curated. therefore we can assume that it will play a role once again.
the jace unban indicated a change in philosophies. they explicitly stated that they were not looking to target the best performing deck. this could indicate that unbannings are their weapon of choice to keep modern pro-tours exciting. for the most part i think modern will keep evolving quickly on its own. however it is the reason that i pointed out the next pro-tour as the the only plausible scenario where twin might be unbanned in the future. if the meta is in a bad spot and they can sense pros approaching a 'solved format', especially one that seriously lacks diversity, they might deem twin worth reconsidering since its power level is something they can ascertain with a modicum of reliability.
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Oh and someone correct me if I'm wrong, but didnt Control beat Twin? The issue was that it just lost to everything else?
Control is definitely favored game one. But the matchup significantly improves for twin post board. I;m not sure if twin becomes a favorite, but I personally would prefer to be on the grixis twin side post sideboard.
I'd like to also put a word on Chapin's categorization. The main thing I dislike it's its suspicious perfection. Four categories, each having exactly four sub? That looks too made-up to be symmetric to be the true result of analysis. Hd there been 5 categories with varying numbers of subs, it would be more credible.
Agreed. After reading what Chapin said I could only respond with a quibble over combo.
To me combo needs critical mass and importantly specific spells to be drawn in a game.
Whereas aggro needs a critical mass of spells to be drawn in a game.
Similarly, there really isn't a reason to play a deck that isn't twin; its like Miracles prior to Top banning, Miracles was the best deck and all the pros were dumping all their time tuning and practicing miracles instead of coming up with new decks.
If that's really the case, why was Miracles like 30-40% of its format, and Twin was 10-12%?
If the deck was so oppressive and broken and powerful and obviously the best thing to be doing, why was it considerably less popular than every other "powerful broken oppressive" deck in any format's history?
Similarly, there really isn't a reason to play a deck that isn't twin; its like Miracles prior to Top banning, Miracles was the best deck and all the pros were dumping all their time tuning and practicing miracles instead of coming up with new decks.
If that's really the case, why was Miracles like 30-40% of its format, and Twin was 10-12%?
If the deck was so oppressive and broken and powerful and obviously the best thing to be doing, why was it considerably less popular than every other "powerful broken oppressive" deck in any format's history?
Maybe it was on an upward trend and Wizards intervened early. That's basically what Forsythe suggested in one of his Tweets when he said the PT dictates the "timing" of the ban.
At the time Wild Nacatl was banned, we hoped that this would allow room for other aggressive decks to shine. Artifact-based aggressive strategies have remained popular and a few other aggressive decks have emerged, but the Zoo decks eventually disappeared as a result of the ban and nothing else emerged as a viable traditional aggressive deck. We expect that with the return of Wild Nacatl, those decks will return as a viable option.
Since that era, Modern has seen black-green-based midrange decks evolve to use a variety of other colors and threat packages. There is now a healthy choice between, for example, adding red for Lightning Bolt and Ancient Grudge versus adding white for Lingering Souls and Stony Silence. With the unbanning of Jace, we may even see some of these decks shifting toward blue. On top of that, other midrange decks like Mardu Pyromancer have emerged. There are now sufficient options available to have confidence that Bloodbraid Elf will no longer be as detrimental to deck diversity as it once was.
This is the approach Twin unban proponents must use. Stop attacking the initial ban rationale. Start looking at whether or not the ban's objectives were accomplished and how Twin would fare in today's metagame. This is what happened for Nacatl and BBE; if Twin is to be unbanned, it will most likely be under a similar line of argument.
Its a fallacy however. Twin cannot be unbanned under such a pretext, as other aggro or Bxx Midrange decks have been successful.
There is no, and has never been, a replacement for Twin, at the top of the competitive ladder. The wrong card was banned, and the deck was 'nuked from orbit'.
Blue Moon is not good, in any of the various (Jace, Thing in the Ice, Breach, Kiki, Pyro) shades of deck that exist. Not a single one would hold a candle to Twin, and that is a fact.
If the context for Twin being unbanned is that there must be other successful Control/Combo strategies, then Twin will never be unbanned, because UR Combo/Control, is an evolutionary dead end.
At the time Splinter Twin was banned, we hoped that this would allow room for other Control/Combo decks to shine. Blue Moon strategies have remained popular and a few other Control/Combo (Turns) decks have emerged, but the UR Combo/Control decks eventually disappeared as a result of the ban and nothing else emerged as a viable traditional Combo/Control deck. We expect that with the return of Splinter Twin, those decks will return as a viable option.
i think that the problem with modern today is that consistency cannot match redundancy. With better cantrips, decks that try to control the "unfair" decks could find the right tools in time. With better cantrips you can run more silver bullets, wich is awesome in a format so big as modern
i think that the problem with modern today is that consistency cannot match redundancy. With better cantrips, decks that try to control the "unfair" decks could find the right tools in time. With better cantrips you can run more silver bullets, wich is awesome in a format so big as modern
But would that be a bad thing? People are always complaining about sideboards. I can't have enough cards in my SB to fight too many decks in Modern. And I can't find my SB card in time to make a difference. Wouldn't something like Preordain potentially help that, if ever so slightly?
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
i think that the problem with modern today is that consistency cannot match redundancy. With better cantrips, decks that try to control the "unfair" decks could find the right tools in time. With better cantrips you can run more silver bullets, wich is awesome in a format so big as modern
But would that be a bad thing? People are always complaining about sideboards. I can't have enough cards in my SB to fight too many decks in Modern. And I can't find my SB card in time to make a difference. Wouldn't something like Preordain potentially help that, if ever so slightly?
I don't think Sabertooth is saying its a problem.
The question is do you think WOTC thinks its a problem. If I had to guess I would guess that WOTC is not really fan of control. Because Sabertooth is right it be easier to find answers and allow you to play a wider variety of answers. If your opponent is not playing blue the worse you got to fight through is 4 Meddling Mages in Humans or 4 Thoughtseize or Some Random Discard. So if you had a better way to dig for your answers you be way better off. I still think what control needs is some cheaper boardwipes though to clean up Bogles, Humans and Hollow Ones. Granted Better cantrips does make Terminus way better.
The problem now is assuming you survive the early game. You got to consistently hit answers on demand or you lose.
i think that the problem with modern today is that consistency cannot match redundancy. With better cantrips, decks that try to control the "unfair" decks could find the right tools in time. With better cantrips you can run more silver bullets, wich is awesome in a format so big as modern
But would that be a bad thing? People are always complaining about sideboards. I can't have enough cards in my SB to fight too many decks in Modern. And I can't find my SB card in time to make a difference. Wouldn't something like Preordain potentially help that, if ever so slightly?
I don't think Sabertooth is saying its a problem.
The question is do you think WOTC thinks its a problem. If I had to guess I would guess that WOTC is not really fan of control. Because Sabertooth is right it be easier to find answers and allow you to play a wider variety of answers. If your opponent is not playing blue the worse you got to fight through is 4 Meddling Mages in Humans or 4 Thoughtseize or Some Random Discard. So if you had a better way to dig for your answers you be way better off. I still think what control needs is some cheaper boardwipes though to clean up Bogles, Humans and Hollow Ones. Granted Better cantrips does make Terminus way better.
The problem now is assuming you survive the early game. You got to consistently hit answers on demand or you lose.
i see this claim come up from time to time, and im honestly not sure where it comes from.
sure in the past blue reactive strategies were typically dominant mainstays of multiple formats, and we have seen the systematic weakening of counterspells, card draw, and selection/cantrips. however this was more a means of balancing the scales as wotc began ramping up the power level of creatures, and giving more forms of card advantage to other colors.
there has never been any indication from wizards, either explicitly in statements, or in their actions to indicate that they don't want vanilla control strategies to exist or do well. the fact that the highest profile unbans in the past few years have pointed toward them trying to strengthen the archetype says something.
if jace continues to be an enormous flop, and blue control/tempo decks continue to trend downwards; then i think it only makes sense that they would try something else.
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I don't think they want it to be nonviable but do I think they prefer aggro to control as the dominate force in the meta yes.
Control gets a rap for being slow and boring.
and aggro gets a rap for being mindless with zero decisions. both sentiments are far from the truth. the point is that they have shown that they are aware that the archetype is or has been struggling and have taken measures to address that. aggro doing well in the format isnt proof otherwise, its just the way things are; and there is no basis for wotc to want any one particular strategy to be dominant since there are basically no benefits to be gained whereas the alternative has plenty.
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The trouble wizards has with modern is getting the format to actually change and to let less popular decks shine through the critical mass of the usual suspects. I do think that banning twin resulted in more decks getting to shine, but at the same time if this is part of the goal, unbanning the card should at least be explored to see if it reverses the trend, or makes the format move into a new direction with a completely different set of decks shifting to prominence.
That and I tend to be one of those people that hates seeing people lose their favorite deck. There's no way to bring back birthing pod or summer bloom, but at least in the case of Splinter Twin it is possible to bring that card back and potentially not break the game.
and aggro gets a rap for being mindless with zero decisions. both sentiments are far from the truth. the point is that they have shown that they are aware that the archetype is or has been struggling and have taken measures to address that. aggro doing well in the format isnt proof otherwise, its just the way things are; and there is no basis for wotc to want any one particular strategy to be dominant since there are basically no benefits to be gained whereas the alternative has plenty.
Oh, people don't dislike aggro because it has zero decision making. People tend to dislike aggro because aggro decks are about ending the game as soon as possible. Having a critical mass of aggro decks can take the fun out of any format.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
The trouble wizards has with modern is getting the format to actually change and to let less popular decks shine through the critical mass of the usual suspects. I do think that banning twin resulted in more decks getting to shine, but at the same time if this is part of the goal, unbanning the card should at least be explored to see if it reverses the trend, or makes the format move into a new direction with a completely different set of decks shifting to prominence.
That and I tend to be one of those people that hates seeing people lose their favorite deck. There's no way to bring back birthing pod or summer bloom, but at least in the case of Splinter Twin it is possible to bring that card back and potentially not break the game.
I was working on the Pre-Ban Top 8's earlier, and WOW was Pod/Jund ever dominate, and I'm only mid way through 2014 right now.
Unless it changes, quickly Twin isnt even close to the top of the 'top 8' meta share.
Right now it may as well read 'Draw 2, Abuse 2 Cards in GY' for R.
I wanted to take a look at my GP's still to add to the the total list I have running, and you know what the tipping point was?
Grand Prix Pittsburgh 2015, the only event to put 3 "Twin's" (its actually 2 Twin, 1 Kiki Resto) in the Top 8 of a GP, after which Twin was banned. Affinity has put in MANY 2 deck appearances (including that top 8 of Twin x 2, Kiki Resto, Affinity x 2, Valakult, Grixis Control, and GW Hatebears) so much for Twin 'suppressing' decks.
Honestly I encourage anyone who actually cares to look at this.
All you have to do is look down the list find 'Modern' grab the city, and the year and search, and you can see the top 8.
Its an absolute travesty that Twin was banned. Its not even close to the most represented deck, its simply the deck that had to go for the Pro Tour, and wasnt as easy to slam dunk hate out (Affinity).
I am CONVINCED if the same ban process was at place at Wizards, Affinity would have been next. 100%
EDIT: I went and read the announcement and they even call out the Pitt event (though they are wrong, thats not Twin its Kiki Resto + the Twin package...) hilarious...
Its a fallacy however. Twin cannot be unbanned under such a pretext, as other aggro or Bxx Midrange decks have been successful.
There is no, and has never been, a replacement for Twin, at the top of the competitive ladder. The wrong card was banned, and the deck was 'nuked from orbit'.
Blue Moon is not good, in any of the various (Jace, Thing in the Ice, Breach, Kiki, Pyro) shades of deck that exist. Not a single one would hold a candle to Twin, and that is a fact.
If the context for Twin being unbanned is that there must be other successful Control/Combo strategies, then Twin will never be unbanned, because UR Combo/Control, is an evolutionary dead end.
At the time Splinter Twin was banned, we hoped that this would allow room for other Control/Combo decks to shine. Blue Moon strategies have remained popular and a few other Control/Combo (Turns) decks have emerged, but the UR Combo/Control decks eventually disappeared as a result of the ban and nothing else emerged as a viable traditional Combo/Control deck. We expect that with the return of Splinter Twin, those decks will return as a viable option.
Twin doesn't necessarily need to follow the BBE example with respect to other controlling decks emerging as viable contenders. You just rewrote the Nacatl example as a possible way to show how Twin might be unbanned. Unfortunately, you focused too narrowly on "control/combo decks" when the initial ban announcement did not categorize Twin as replacing other combo/control decks. The update talked about Twin replacing, for example, Jeskai Control and Temur Tempo. These are not control/combo decks, and yet Wizards accused Twin of replacing them. That is to say, we are talking about blue-based tempo and control more broadly. This means you'd have to rewrite the Nacatl example to include all of these broader definitions, not just the narrow one of combo/control.
The posts trying to rip apart the Twin ban are meaningless at this point. Wizards did not unban Nacatl and BBE because they found flaws in their initial ban rationale. Rather, they examined what an unban would do and if the ban accomplished its stated aims. Twin proponents need to focus there, not digging through 2015 T8s to show that the Twin ban was unjust to begin with.
yeah it sucks, it was immediately apparent that the ban didnt align with previous ones. so i dont think that was in question. with the pro-tour back though and the implication that they dont want to ban to keep it interesting and i dont think its farfetched that they already know which cards they want to unban but are just leveraging them as a resource for the next few years. there are other reasons not to unban stuff all at once, but it wouldnt surprise me to learn that their plan all along was pro tour -> unban -> pro tour -> unban etc.
id like to think twin is being held as their trump card as a guaranteed way to shake things up in an emergency, but who knows if its even on their list.
as for faithless looting. someone earlier compared it to brainstorm, and that isnt too far off the mark for decks that can gain additional value off the discard. digging, while also filtering dead cards out of your hand. not to mention most people are trying to end the game sooner rather than later and the initial card disadvantage hardly matters.
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I do hear your argument. And you have data backing you up. I also remember how at the time of the banning UR was the main variant nut there were also URW, grixis, Tarmo twin and even twinning end. People put the combo into many different shells because it was powerful. And if people are playing a powerful deck that will limit diversity by having it kill the weaker decks and then people wontbplay thevwraker decks anymore.
My points are less data driven I guess. I just didn't feel it was breaking the rules. If it was such a monster why did they allow it in the format for so long before banning It? I think it was skirting the line for all the reasons you mentioned but fell on the OK for modern side, it was finally banned for the protour shake up.
The deck was also fun to play. Abrupt decay with discard and other creature removal made for some hard games. Twin was not just a walk in the park. The exarch would have been a better ban IMO then the deck would have survived.
New cards have been printed that could pair favorably against twin. These are mostly untested to my knowledge, and side board games can differ depending on how each builds the SB, but I would be interested in how hollow one, GDS, humans, eldrazi variants, and jund with BBE all would fair now. Also what would a twin deck even look like now with AV and JTMS unbanned? I don't think we know any of this information for sure. I support a twin unban but I understand why others may feel differently.
every good deck is supplanting decks similar to it. regardless its pointless to go on and on about whether the ban was justified. it really doesnt matter. twin was banned under circumstances that differed significantly to previous ones. that is just a fact.
the format is completely different now, and we should be framing everything under the current state of things and stop looking at the past.
eldrazi decks, dredge, fatal push, death shadow, storm, kci, mardu, humans , hollow one, etc. stop looking at what twin was doing 2 years ago because that format no longer exists.
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every good deck is supplanting decks similar to it. regardless its pointless to go on and on about whether the ban was justified. it really doesnt matter. twin was banned under circumstances that differed significantly to previous ones. that is just a fact.
the format is completely different now, and we should be framing everything under the current state of things and stop looking at the past.
eldrazi decks, dredge, fatal push, death shadow, storm, kci, mardu, humans , hollow one, etc. stop looking at what twin was doing 2 years ago because that format no longer exists.
Several good points here.
1. Twin would replace decks. No argument can be made that it wouldnt. UR Kiki and UR Breach for example would 100% disappear.
2. It really doesnt matter. I agree. This T8 exercise was something I just wanted to do to confirm to myself that Twin was not over represented. It wasnt OR OTHER DECKS ARE.
3. The format is completely different now. 100% Its very interesting to see the format take shape, and to remember some of these events. Tarmo Affinity anyone?
Either way, we can all move the goal posts over and over, cite any numbers we have access to, waste time to write up justifications, but in the end it doesnt matter.
Nothing this forum says, will get Twin unbanned.
Nothing.
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I will 100% concede that we are in a much better place now.
And yes, Modern was definitely a lot worse in it's earlier years when things like Rite of Flame and Blazing Shoal were legal.
I still hold however, that Modern as a format is a lot more solitaire like without the existence of Twin.
Modern Decks:
UBG Lantern Control GBU
BRG Bridge-Vine GRB
Commander Decks
UBG Muldrotha, Value Elemental GBU
BRG Windgrace Real-Estate Ltd. GRB
#PayThePros
Its not that we 'dont need to prove anything'. Its that when it comes to the first 3 points, ONLY WIZARDS can prove it.
As you so eloquently put it 'Like I care what Reid Duke thinks.' Well are you going to care any more for what idSurge things? What tronix thinks? Not a chance.
Items 1,2 and 3, cannot be 'proven' by players.
Spirits
Spirits
i can always appreciate your commentary. the bolded part is what people need to focus on. also i remember reading that article, but had forgotten how comprehensive it was. i recommend that anyone on either side of the twin camp read it.
most importantly are the aspects pertaining to the modern pro-tour. its not something ive seen much commentary on, but its existence in the past had a clear role in how the ban list was curated. therefore we can assume that it will play a role once again.
the jace unban indicated a change in philosophies. they explicitly stated that they were not looking to target the best performing deck. this could indicate that unbannings are their weapon of choice to keep modern pro-tours exciting. for the most part i think modern will keep evolving quickly on its own. however it is the reason that i pointed out the next pro-tour as the the only plausible scenario where twin might be unbanned in the future. if the meta is in a bad spot and they can sense pros approaching a 'solved format', especially one that seriously lacks diversity, they might deem twin worth reconsidering since its power level is something they can ascertain with a modicum of reliability.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Control is definitely favored game one. But the matchup significantly improves for twin post board. I;m not sure if twin becomes a favorite, but I personally would prefer to be on the grixis twin side post sideboard.
Agreed. After reading what Chapin said I could only respond with a quibble over combo.
To me combo needs critical mass and importantly specific spells to be drawn in a game.
Whereas aggro needs a critical mass of spells to be drawn in a game.
Sounds like a book to pick up though!
Legacy - LED Dredge, ANT & WDnT
If that's really the case, why was Miracles like 30-40% of its format, and Twin was 10-12%?
If the deck was so oppressive and broken and powerful and obviously the best thing to be doing, why was it considerably less popular than every other "powerful broken oppressive" deck in any format's history?
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Maybe it was on an upward trend and Wizards intervened early. That's basically what Forsythe suggested in one of his Tweets when he said the PT dictates the "timing" of the ban.
More importantly, this is not the appropriate way to argue for Twin's unban. See two previous cards that were banned after a period of legality and subsequently unbanned: Nacatl and BBE. See Nacatl's unbanning that does not challenge the initial rationale. Rather, it reexamines the ban's objectives and finds that the ban did not meet its goal:
https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/top-decks/february-3-2014-dci-banned-restricted-list-announcement-2014-02-03
We see the same thing with BBE. They don't say the initial ban was wrong or made in error. They simply reexamine the ban today and see that there are current metagame reasons to believe BBE would be fine in Modern:
https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/news/february-12-2018-banned-and-restricted-announcement-2018-02-12
This is the approach Twin unban proponents must use. Stop attacking the initial ban rationale. Start looking at whether or not the ban's objectives were accomplished and how Twin would fare in today's metagame. This is what happened for Nacatl and BBE; if Twin is to be unbanned, it will most likely be under a similar line of argument.
There is no, and has never been, a replacement for Twin, at the top of the competitive ladder. The wrong card was banned, and the deck was 'nuked from orbit'.
Blue Moon is not good, in any of the various (Jace, Thing in the Ice, Breach, Kiki, Pyro) shades of deck that exist. Not a single one would hold a candle to Twin, and that is a fact.
If the context for Twin being unbanned is that there must be other successful Control/Combo strategies, then Twin will never be unbanned, because UR Combo/Control, is an evolutionary dead end.
Spirits
But would that be a bad thing? People are always complaining about sideboards. I can't have enough cards in my SB to fight too many decks in Modern. And I can't find my SB card in time to make a difference. Wouldn't something like Preordain potentially help that, if ever so slightly?
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)I don't think Sabertooth is saying its a problem.
The question is do you think WOTC thinks its a problem. If I had to guess I would guess that WOTC is not really fan of control. Because Sabertooth is right it be easier to find answers and allow you to play a wider variety of answers. If your opponent is not playing blue the worse you got to fight through is 4 Meddling Mages in Humans or 4 Thoughtseize or Some Random Discard. So if you had a better way to dig for your answers you be way better off. I still think what control needs is some cheaper boardwipes though to clean up Bogles, Humans and Hollow Ones. Granted Better cantrips does make Terminus way better.
The problem now is assuming you survive the early game. You got to consistently hit answers on demand or you lose.
i see this claim come up from time to time, and im honestly not sure where it comes from.
sure in the past blue reactive strategies were typically dominant mainstays of multiple formats, and we have seen the systematic weakening of counterspells, card draw, and selection/cantrips. however this was more a means of balancing the scales as wotc began ramping up the power level of creatures, and giving more forms of card advantage to other colors.
there has never been any indication from wizards, either explicitly in statements, or in their actions to indicate that they don't want vanilla control strategies to exist or do well. the fact that the highest profile unbans in the past few years have pointed toward them trying to strengthen the archetype says something.
if jace continues to be an enormous flop, and blue control/tempo decks continue to trend downwards; then i think it only makes sense that they would try something else.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Control gets a rap for being slow and boring.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)That and I tend to be one of those people that hates seeing people lose their favorite deck. There's no way to bring back birthing pod or summer bloom, but at least in the case of Splinter Twin it is possible to bring that card back and potentially not break the game.
Oh, people don't dislike aggro because it has zero decision making. People tend to dislike aggro because aggro decks are about ending the game as soon as possible. Having a critical mass of aggro decks can take the fun out of any format.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I was working on the Pre-Ban Top 8's earlier, and WOW was Pod/Jund ever dominate, and I'm only mid way through 2014 right now.
Unless it changes, quickly Twin isnt even close to the top of the 'top 8' meta share.
Spirits
Right now it may as well read 'Draw 2, Abuse 2 Cards in GY' for R.
I wanted to take a look at my GP's still to add to the the total list I have running, and you know what the tipping point was?
Grand Prix Pittsburgh 2015, the only event to put 3 "Twin's" (its actually 2 Twin, 1 Kiki Resto) in the Top 8 of a GP, after which Twin was banned. Affinity has put in MANY 2 deck appearances (including that top 8 of Twin x 2, Kiki Resto, Affinity x 2, Valakult, Grixis Control, and GW Hatebears) so much for Twin 'suppressing' decks.
Honestly I encourage anyone who actually cares to look at this.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Magic:_The_Gathering_Grand_Prix_events
http://mtgtop8.com/search
All you have to do is look down the list find 'Modern' grab the city, and the year and search, and you can see the top 8.
Its an absolute travesty that Twin was banned. Its not even close to the most represented deck, its simply the deck that had to go for the Pro Tour, and wasnt as easy to slam dunk hate out (Affinity).
I am CONVINCED if the same ban process was at place at Wizards, Affinity would have been next. 100%
EDIT: I went and read the announcement and they even call out the Pitt event (though they are wrong, thats not Twin its Kiki Resto + the Twin package...) hilarious...
Spirits
Twin doesn't necessarily need to follow the BBE example with respect to other controlling decks emerging as viable contenders. You just rewrote the Nacatl example as a possible way to show how Twin might be unbanned. Unfortunately, you focused too narrowly on "control/combo decks" when the initial ban announcement did not categorize Twin as replacing other combo/control decks. The update talked about Twin replacing, for example, Jeskai Control and Temur Tempo. These are not control/combo decks, and yet Wizards accused Twin of replacing them. That is to say, we are talking about blue-based tempo and control more broadly. This means you'd have to rewrite the Nacatl example to include all of these broader definitions, not just the narrow one of combo/control.
The posts trying to rip apart the Twin ban are meaningless at this point. Wizards did not unban Nacatl and BBE because they found flaws in their initial ban rationale. Rather, they examined what an unban would do and if the ban accomplished its stated aims. Twin proponents need to focus there, not digging through 2015 T8s to show that the Twin ban was unjust to begin with.
id like to think twin is being held as their trump card as a guaranteed way to shake things up in an emergency, but who knows if its even on their list.
as for faithless looting. someone earlier compared it to brainstorm, and that isnt too far off the mark for decks that can gain additional value off the discard. digging, while also filtering dead cards out of your hand. not to mention most people are trying to end the game sooner rather than later and the initial card disadvantage hardly matters.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)My points are less data driven I guess. I just didn't feel it was breaking the rules. If it was such a monster why did they allow it in the format for so long before banning It? I think it was skirting the line for all the reasons you mentioned but fell on the OK for modern side, it was finally banned for the protour shake up.
The deck was also fun to play. Abrupt decay with discard and other creature removal made for some hard games. Twin was not just a walk in the park. The exarch would have been a better ban IMO then the deck would have survived.
New cards have been printed that could pair favorably against twin. These are mostly untested to my knowledge, and side board games can differ depending on how each builds the SB, but I would be interested in how hollow one, GDS, humans, eldrazi variants, and jund with BBE all would fair now. Also what would a twin deck even look like now with AV and JTMS unbanned? I don't think we know any of this information for sure. I support a twin unban but I understand why others may feel differently.
the format is completely different now, and we should be framing everything under the current state of things and stop looking at the past.
eldrazi decks, dredge, fatal push, death shadow, storm, kci, mardu, humans , hollow one, etc. stop looking at what twin was doing 2 years ago because that format no longer exists.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Several good points here.
1. Twin would replace decks. No argument can be made that it wouldnt. UR Kiki and UR Breach for example would 100% disappear.
2. It really doesnt matter. I agree. This T8 exercise was something I just wanted to do to confirm to myself that Twin was not over represented. It wasnt OR OTHER DECKS ARE.
3. The format is completely different now. 100% Its very interesting to see the format take shape, and to remember some of these events. Tarmo Affinity anyone?
Either way, we can all move the goal posts over and over, cite any numbers we have access to, waste time to write up justifications, but in the end it doesnt matter.
Nothing this forum says, will get Twin unbanned.
Nothing.
Spirits