Here are the cards in the modern banlist that I wouldn't mind seeing unbanned, one at a time, in no particular order, to see how things shake up:
Birthing Pod (I don't agree with this ban, and I actually think CoCo and Pod decks pull green towards different directions, which means that pod could open up new strategies and amplify diversity. I do think there is an argument that pod could end up being just another unfair deck, but I don't see it that way).
Cloudpost (I don't understand why this card is banned, period. Tron is better, and it is legal)
Dark Depths (this - together with another unban that I will comment on soon - can create a prototype for a lands archetype in modern, while also generating turbo depths style decks)
Deathrite Shaman (another quintessencial card for fair midrange strategies - it is unfatomable to me why this card is banned in modern. It covers bases that GBx strategies need to be covering and helps those decks against unfair strategies on game 1)
Green Sun's Zenith (this card is fine in my view, can create some cool toolbox archetypes. I think it would only need to be rebanned if it created some sort of incredibly fast and consistent creature combo deck, which is not impossible, but in my mind also not that likely)
Ponder and Preordain (these cards should never be banned in any format that wants fair decks to thrive. Yes, it makes storm stronger, and other blue-based combo decks, but 1) there aren't that many good blue-based combo decks besides storm and 2) storm is about to receive more hate from another hate card in damping sphere)
Punishing Fire (quintessencial for any lands prototype, this card is not too strong for modern. 2 mana for a shock is DEFINITELY below modern power level, and you won't always have grove to recurr it. Even if you do, plenty of aggro decks can already overpower this. This would be another tool for fair decks to look into)
Splinter Twin (I'm willing to see this back in modern, if anything to have a different strategy coming back to the fold)
Stoneforge Mystic (As others have stated, a perfectly balanced card for modern power level)
Umezawa's Jitte (This is a powerful card, but I really don't know why it is banned. This card basically benefits midrange strategies, that are in need of some help, so I think it is perfectly fine, not to mention that artifact hate in modern is already prevalent to counterbalance this card's power level)
Everything else I think it makes the format too degenerate (GGT, Dread Return, Rite of Flame, Eye of Ugin, etc.) or too unpleasant to play against (sensei's divining top, mental misstep, gitaxian probe, treasure cruise, DTT, etc.). I don't think the delve blue spells should return to the format. These cards are way too powerful in formats with fetchlands, and those who think DTT is not that great of a offender as TC think that only because TC is the best delve spell and they both coexisted in modern. In legacy, TC was banned first, DTT remained and quickly created a tier 1 strategy in monoblue omnitell. These spells are just mistakes, and should never have been designed. They simply can't see play in formats where fetchlands exist.
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I honestly think that is an unfair characterization, and I am not short on experience when it comes to making unfair characterizations ktkenshinx.
Plenty of digital ink has been wasted outlining various points on why the ban was wrong or unjustified, but you have to gather it up over years.
I never said all of the pro-Twin arguments are bad. I said they were "almost always" in that category. There is nothing at all unfair in saying that most of the Twin talk is not advancing any particular case because that is most certainly true. There are countless examples of this throughout this thread and Reddit; just read the iterations of this thread and Reddit threads and compare cogent Twin defenses to one-liners and purely rhetorical pleas.
Even if those arguments are out there, which I fully admit some are, they are typically drowned out by the #FreeTwin masses. This makes it very hard to mount a succinct and unified case in favor of Twin. Many Moderners get incredibly sensitive about this issue and assume any argument against Twin is someone that doesn't want the card unbanned and/or that they aren't worth convincing otherwise. I guarantee if people took up this argument in a systematic and rigorous way (similar to the steps I outlined in an earlier post) then others would be much more receptive to an unban Twin position.
thats your hang up? storm? what would they cut and what would they gain by nuking their graveyard with delve? the deck could probably contort to accommodate dig, but would the result be better than gifts storm? color me dubious.
there might be some fringe or unknown deck waiting to be busted so dig might never make the cut on that alone. however i dont see dig slotting into any existing decks and being too good.
maybe blue doesnt need that level of help, but ive found it odd it is almost never brought up in these unban discussions.
I'm with you for a DTT unban (with TC never being unbanned), and I can't comment too much on what it enabled as I only really started paying attention to modern just after the B&R announcement. I think people remember TC being so good, and that takes DTT with it.
Engineered Explosives is great against Bogles and great against a lot of matchups. However, for some odd reason many control decks relegate them to the SB and like 2 copies at that. Sure, they suck against Hollow One but they are awesome in many matches.
@Ashiok - personally I would love that higher powered modern format, but I don't think they could realistically do that any time soon. I would like to see things head in this direction eventually, but the rate of unbans in modern is so glacially slow.
Actually, couldCloudpost come back now that Damping Sphere is a thing? I disagree that it's "just a worse tron" though. Post decks have advantages over Tron and vice versa.
1. Did the Twin ban increase/decrease blue diversity as the update claimed it would? This is relatively easy to find by comparing the pre-ban share of non-Twin blue deck to the post-ban share of non-Twin blue decks. Lots of crunching, but all the data is public. I started this analysis in early 2017 and found pretty convincingly that the non-Twin blue share didn't change at all. It even dropped in some sectors.
2. Did the Twin ban increase/decrease format diversity as the update also claimed it would? Another easy one to test with a similar method, using all public data.
3. Is Twin 2.0 with AV/JTMS/Push/Search/etc. too strong for the current Modern? This is the hardest thing to test because you need to build an optimal post-unban Twin list and then play it against a slew of new top decks. You can use Twin's old matchups as a starting point (https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/magic-math-the-new-modern-by-the-numbers/): hint - it was basically 50/50 against everything in the top-tier.
A very quick take on these, based on comments, analysis, and research done at various points in the past two years...
1. Definitely dropped. Today, you basically have Blue Moon and Jeskai. As opposed to Twin variants, Delver variants, UW/Grixis/Jeskai Midrange and Control variants, Blue Moon, and blue-based Scapeshift.
2. GP Top 8 and Winners' diversity remained mostly unchanged afterwards (mostly blowing out of proportion the impact Twin actually had, especially outside the PT). This also doesn't account for "diversity" increases as a result of newly printed cards breaking various decks left and right or creating new T1 decks from Tier 3 jank. However archetype diversity is much lower, with a much higher share of non-interactive, linear aggro and combo. This is present now, as it was during the entirety of 2016.
3. While I personally will not be able to test 50,000 matches myself, my gut says it's definitely not too strong. And claims that it would be echo as blankly as those claiming Jace was too much for Modern. AV is straight trash, Search for Azcanta can't find combo creatures, Jace is just a straight swap from Keranos (maybe not??) for fair matchups in the side, and Push is a card to be used AGAINST Twin. Claiming this will take over the format is simply ignoring the speed, resilience, and power of the decks at the top right now, as well as the fragility Twin has to disruption backed by a quick clock, or just a quick clock from things that don't die to Bolt (IE almost all of Modern's best decks right now). As I said, considering it was not too powerful when it was banned in the first place, and the format as a whole has gotten significantly MORE powerful (especially within the first 3 turns), it seems ridiculous that Twin would be anything other than another top deck (just like it was when it was banned, when Affinity and BGx held larger meta shares...).
nah cloudpost is never going to see the light of day. some things are just so good no amount of hate can realistically stop it unless the hate is equally busted and played maindeck(ie wasteland, price of progress, etc).
its like saying skullclamp is fine because k-command exists.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
I honestly think that is an unfair characterization, and I am not short on experience when it comes to making unfair characterizations ktkenshinx.
Plenty of digital ink has been wasted outlining various points on why the ban was wrong or unjustified, but you have to gather it up over years.
I never said all of the pro-Twin arguments are bad. I said they were "almost always" in that category. There is nothing at all unfair in saying that most of the Twin talk is not advancing any particular case because that is most certainly true. There are countless examples of this throughout this thread and Reddit; just read the iterations of this thread and Reddit threads and compare cogent Twin defenses to one-liners and purely rhetorical pleas.
Even if those arguments are out there, which I fully admit some are, they are typically drowned out by the #FreeTwin masses. This makes it very hard to mount a succinct and unified case in favor of Twin. Many Moderners get incredibly sensitive about this issue and assume any argument against Twin is someone that doesn't want the card unbanned and/or that they aren't worth convincing otherwise. I guarantee if people took up this argument in a systematic and rigorous way (similar to the steps I outlined in an earlier post) then others would be much more receptive to an unban Twin position.
I think 2.5 years of non-communication on the topic from Wizards, while we watch deck after deck after 'near legacy' level deck continue to exist, has probably just worn on people to the point where what else can be said?
1. Definitely dropped. Today, you basically have Blue Moon and Jeskai. As opposed to Twin variants, Delver variants, UW/Grixis/Jeskai Midrange and Control variants, Blue Moon, and blue-based Scapeshift.
Although I believe this is true, this claim needs hard numbers to back it up, not just a few sentences. I would start by comparing the 2017-2018 share of blue decks in the following categories to the share of Twin and non-Twin blue decks in those categories throughout 2015. Incidentally, I have those 2015 numbers already from an unpublished analysis project. See the spoiler below for what constituted a non-Twin blue deck (tempo, midrange, control, control/combo hybrids only) in 2015:
4C Control
4C Gifts
Bant Control
Bant Midrange
Blue Moon
BUG Delver
BUG Midrange
Cruel Control
Esper Control
Esper Delve
Esper Delver
Esper Gifts
Esper Midrange
Eternal Command
Faeries
Grixis Control
Grixis Delver
Grixis Midrange
Grixis White
Jeskai Black
Miracles
Mono U Control
Mono U Tron
Polymorph
Possibility Storm
Pyromancer's Ascension
RUG Delver
RUG Midrange
Scapeshift
Sultai Control
Tezzerator
Time Walk
UB Control
UB Delver
UB Tezzeret
UG Midrange
UR Delver
UW Control
UW Delver
UW Midrange
UW Tempo
UW Tron
UWR Ascendancy
UWR Control
UWR Delver
UWR Gifts
UWR Midrange
This means the share of non-Twin blue decks has actually increased, but the TOTAL share of non-Twin blue decks PLUS Twin decks has decreased. For instance, non-Twin blue was only 8.6% of T8s in 2015 but is now up to 15.6% in 2018. But the total T8 blue share between Twin/non-Twin dropped from 23.8% in 2015 to 15.6% in 2018.
I think the bottom line is that Twin will push out a lot of "annoying decks."
*These are decks that many Modern players LOOOOOVE to play. I love playing Bogles and I know others do too. You can't tell me that Twin doesn't push out Bogles. I know how terrible the matchup IS. I could go on and on for other decks, mostly fringe decks, but Twin will definitely be the end of a 5-4-4-4-4-4-4-3-3-3-3-2-2-2-2-1-1-1-1 % metagame. Some people don't like this metagame. I rarely have, but I have come to somewhat love (maybe love is too strong a word - accept) the variance of Modern.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Here are the cards in the modern banlist that I wouldn't mind seeing unbanned, one at a time, in no particular order, to see how things shake up:
Cloudpost (I don't understand why this card is banned, period. Tron is better, and it is legal)
Cloudpost is much better than tron. It cares less about the combination of lands (don't need one of each) and gets to absurd amounts of mana quicker (getting 16 mana with 4 lands, etc). Another big deal is that the glimmmerposts gain you life while you are doing this, shoring up the weaker aggro matchups.
My guess is that a modern cloudpost deck would not look like a tron deck but instead run primeval titan and lean on walking ballista as a primary win condition. Casting a primeval titan with a couple of cloudposts/vesuvas would give you an additional 36 mana (6x cloudpost/vesuvas) the following turn after attacking with the titan. Or the titan could gain you 24 life (get 4x glimmerposts/vesuvas).
The other concern with cloudpost is that it would re-enable the eldrazi aggro decks from eldrazi winter. Running 4x cloudpost, 4x glimmerpost, 4x vesuva, 4x eldrazi temple would enable extremely consistent turn 2 TKS, turn 3 reality smasher starts.
what are you talking about. the context of that quote is that the format is already in a spot where tapping out on turn 4 is often a death sentence; therefore jace would be fine to unban. jace isnt meant to prolong games and they didnt expect him to.
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Here are the cards in the modern banlist that I wouldn't mind seeing unbanned, one at a time, in no particular order, to see how things shake up:
Cloudpost (I don't understand why this card is banned, period. Tron is better, and it is legal)
Cloudpost is much better than tron. It cares less about the combination of lands (don't need one of each) and gets to absurd amounts of mana quicker (getting 16 mana with 4 lands, etc). Another big deal is that the glimmmerposts gain you life while you are doing this, shoring up the weaker aggro matchups.
My guess is that a modern cloudpost deck would not look like a tron deck but instead run primeval titan and lean on walking ballista as a primary win condition. Casting a primeval titan with a couple of cloudposts/vesuvas would give you an additional 36 mana (6x cloudpost/vesuvas) the following turn after attacking with the titan. Or the titan could gain you 24 life (get 4x glimmerposts/vesuvas).
The other concern with cloudpost is that it would re-enable the eldrazi aggro decks from eldrazi winter. Running 4x cloudpost, 4x glimmerpost, 4x vesuva, 4x eldrazi temple would enable extremely consistent turn 2 TKS, turn 3 reality smasher starts.
Cloudpost is not better than tron. Yes, after you have many posts in play, you generate insane amounts of mana. First you have to get there though. In tron, you need three cards out of 12 to get to 7 mana, which they can usually achieve on turn 3. What about in cloudpost? Let's assume you're playing 12 post, with 4 vesuvas. First, you NEED to have a cloudpost in hand, otherwise your vesuvas won't copy the thing that matters. So you need 1 card of 4, early in the game. By comparison, it is as if tron always needed to drop a mine first to be good. Second, cloudposts and vesuvas come into play tapped. It is hard to state how bad that is. Even if you went cloudpost into cloudpost into cloudpost, you wouldn't have more than 6 colorless mana by turn 3, and give time for your opponent to draw into their field of ruins/ghost quarters/damping spheres.
Cloudpost is inherently worse than tron for these two reasons - you need at least one copy of a specific land EARLY in the game for your deck to start humming, while tron doesn't care about the order in which it draws the tron pieces, and most of your posts come into play tapped, putting you behind the curve all the time. Yes, yes, after you achieve your goal of assembling posts, you have insane amounts of mana. So what? You don't need insane amounts of mana to win, the amount that tron generates (which is 'a lot') is just fine. No need to cast Emrakuls if Karns and Ulamogs will do the job.
Now, let's assume the deck plays with primeval titans, as you stated. How is that different or better than Titan Shift? Titan shift can drop prime-times turn 4 and win on the way back or at least get a land that makes every mountain of theirs become lightning bolt. For cloudpost to drop titan turn 4 they need to go cloudpost -> vesuva/cloudpost -> green source -> green source (or something to filter for the green sources, which would still make them cast the titan turn 3 in a veeery veeery good hand). So, their best case scenario is not even that great, and I assure you they will stumble and fumble much more than that.
Finally, what in cloudpost enables turn 2 TKS? Seriously, in what combination of land drops that don't involve two eldrazi temples is cloudpost going to enable turn 2 TKS? If you drop a cloudpost, then another, you have 4 mana, 2 of which is coming into play tapped, so you DON'T have turn 2 TKS. You can try and think of any combination, there is none besides the already existing eldrazi temple -> eldrazi temple that achieves that. The only real valid concern about cloudpost is if it will generate a better amulet of vigor deck, but we simply have no way to know that until we unban the card.
EDIT: the only way it would achieve turn 2 TKS is with SSG help, which you did not mention. You would need to go cloudpost -> glimmerpost + SSG. With the lands alone, you can't do it.
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This means the share of non-Twin blue decks has actually increased, but the TOTAL share of non-Twin blue decks PLUS Twin decks has decreased. For instance, non-Twin blue was only 8.6% of T8s in 2015 but is now up to 15.6% in 2018. But the total T8 blue share between Twin/non-Twin dropped from 23.8% in 2015 to 15.6% in 2018.
Not sure how much credit you can give to those 2018 decks because of the Twin ban. The only reason any of those decks are played are because of unbanned cards (Jace) and newly printed cards (Search for Azcanta and Spell Queller). But either way, you have shown a pretty substantial overall decline in the color/archetype since the banning, which seems to go against their stated goals. Remember, reactive blue control was supposed to be freed by the shackles of Twin and allowed to thrive as a result of its absence. Not flounder around for 2 years+, begging for table scraps while new decks are getting broken left and right from new printings.
Additionally, the share of non-twin blue decks is still just as homogenized (probably even more so) between Jeskai and Blue Moon, meaning LESS overall diversity (in addition to lower overall numbers).
Punishing Fire, DRS, Cloudpost? At what point do you just add in "I hate modern in its entirety right now and want it replaced by something totally different."
In tron, you need three cards out of 12 to get to 7 mana, which they can usually achieve on turn 3. [...] So you need 1 card of 4, early in the game.
What are you talking about? Tron need 1 out of 4 THREE times, not 3 out of 12. With cloudpost, a single cloudpost enables your entire busted mana base, which can be done off a single map or sylvan scrying. Tron can be thrown off with a single ghostquarter, not post. There are a few scenarios where tron is better, but they're the miority. Most of the times, post is way better.
You really want to give storm access to dig through time? I think that's one of the last cards I would choose to unban if anything.
I think it's hilarious that people argue that splinter twin is interactive- it's interactive until you hit an "I win the game" button with an instant speed combo- be a man and play a real control deck that squeaks out incremental advantage over time instead of playing that bull***** and actually requires real decision making rather than turn 2 remand your spell, turn 3 cast a flash guy, turn 4 win the game- it's far too consistent to be considered fun to play with and against.
The only card that makes any sense to come off the banned list at the moment is stoneforge mystic. It's an overly fair card that doesn't end the game on the spot and actually creates games of more interactive magic. Bringing decks like twin or pod back basically just emphasize the current "arms race kill you as fast as I can or be killed" crap that we've been seeing with the surge of decks like bogles and hollow one. The format has a clean answer to it in k command, and the equipment in this format are mediocre at best without skullclamp and jitte.
Storm already has Gifts Ungiven which is even more powerful in their shell than DTT is.
In tron, you need three cards out of 12 to get to 7 mana, which they can usually achieve on turn 3. [...] So you need 1 card of 4, early in the game.
What are you talking about? Tron need 1 out of 4 THREE times, not 3 out of 12. With cloudpost, a single cloudpost enables your entire busted mana base, which can be done off a single map or sylvan scrying. Tron can be thrown off with a single ghostquarter, not post. There are a few scenarios where tron is better, but they're the miority. Most of the times, post is way better.
In addition to what you wrote a lot of people underestimate the ability of Glimmerpost. Trons largest weakness is fast aggro decks and the ability in the late game to gain 5-10 life as needed against decks like burn is huge. 12 post is just better than Tron and it's not particularly close.
Punishing Fire, DRS, Cloudpost? At what point do you just add in "I hate modern in its entirety right now and want it replaced by something totally different."
Please, tell me why these cards are a sign that I hate modern. If you don't articulate your arguments onto why you think these cards should not be unbanned, there is no discussion to be had here.
In tron, you need three cards out of 12 to get to 7 mana, which they can usually achieve on turn 3. [...] So you need 1 card of 4, early in the game.
What are you talking about? Tron need 1 out of 4 THREE times, not 3 out of 12. With cloudpost, a single cloudpost enables your entire busted mana base, which can be done off a single map or sylvan scrying. Tron can be thrown off with a single ghostquarter, not post. There are a few scenarios where tron is better, but they're the miority. Most of the times, post is way better.
I'm saying tron plays 12 copies of the cards that it needs, while post decks play 4, 'in essence'. To achieve tron it doesn't matter the order where you play your tron pieces, you just need to drop one tron piece a turn (that comes into play untapped, mind you) and eventually you get there. Cloudpost decks need a cloudpost to start doing their thing. Yes, one map and one silvan scrying and you get there, sure. And to cast that map and sylvan scrying you had to play 2 non-cloudpost lands. Then on the next turn you can put your cloudpost into play, tapped, and then on the TURN AFTER THAT, if you managed to drop 2 glimmerposts on the firt 2 turns and filter for green, you now have access to 5 mana, maybe 6~8 with another land drop. Congratulations, you're slower than tron. You don't realize that for post strategies to work they need to have cloudpost as one of their first land drops... which is exactly what makes them worse than tron.
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Punishing Fire, DRS, Cloudpost? At what point do you just add in "I hate modern in its entirety right now and want it replaced by something totally different."
Please, tell me why these cards are a sign that I hate modern. If you don't articulate your arguments onto why you think these cards should not be unbanned, there is no discussion to be had here.
In tron, you need three cards out of 12 to get to 7 mana, which they can usually achieve on turn 3. [...] So you need 1 card of 4, early in the game.
What are you talking about? Tron need 1 out of 4 THREE times, not 3 out of 12. With cloudpost, a single cloudpost enables your entire busted mana base, which can be done off a single map or sylvan scrying. Tron can be thrown off with a single ghostquarter, not post. There are a few scenarios where tron is better, but they're the miority. Most of the times, post is way better.
I'm saying tron plays 12 copies of the cards that it needs, while post decks play 4, 'in essence'. To achieve tron it doesn't matter the order where you play your tron pieces, you just need to drop one tron piece a turn (that comes into play untapped, mind you) and eventually you get there. Cloudpost decks need a cloudpost to start doing their thing. Yes, one map and one silvan scrying and you get there, sure. And to cast that map and sylvan scrying you had to play 2 non-cloudpost lands. Then on the next turn you can put your cloudpost into play, tapped, and then on the TURN AFTER THAT, if you managed to drop 2 glimmerposts on the firt 2 turns and filter for green, you now have access to 6 mana, maybe 7 with another land drop. Congratulations, you're slower than tron. You don't realize that for post strategies to work they need to have cloudpost as one of their first land drops... which is exactly what makes them worse than tron.
Post is significantly more busted than Tron. That is why Tron saw basically zero play while Post was legal, and why Legacy Tron is not a thing but Legacy 12Post is. This is on top of the other reasons people mentioned, such as Glimmerpost stopping aggro, faster ramping to more mana, more resilience to land destruction, etc. Given how often people complain about existing big mana strategies in Modern, there's basically no future where Post is unbanned. Also, do we really need more haymaker decks like Post? SFM seems like such a more reasonable unban discussion.
Post is significantly more busted than Tron. That is why Tron saw basically zero play while Post was legal, and why Legacy Tron is not a thing but Legacy 12Post is. This is on top of the other reasons people mentioned, such as Glimmerpost stopping aggro, faster ramping to more mana, more resilience to land destruction, etc. Given how often people complain about existing big mana strategies in Modern, there's basically no future where Post is unbanned. Also, do we really need more haymaker decks like Post? SFM seems like such a more reasonable unban discussion.
Please, go to Jeff Hoogland's youtube channel and watch him playing 12-post and Tron in Legacy. Tron, while losing to fast combo decks (which post also loses to), is simply the better deck. Of course the comparison is not perfect because in Legacy the pool of cards is different and that includes wastelands. However, people who play 12-post in legacy are just playing worse tron, and tron is not played because legacy players are very entrechend in their ways (besides both decks not being highly competitive in the format, though they got better with the current metagame).
Tron is more redundant and more resilient to disruption, I don't know from where people get that 12-post is better against disruption than tron. Maybe when sensei's top was legal in legacy 12-post was more of a real deck, now it is a shell of its former self. In any case, in modern the scenario just wouldn't be different. I agree that in the absolute nut-draw of 12 post they might reach 13 mana by turn 4, but that is simpy not necessary to win the game. I agree that there are other more obvious unbans at the eyes of Wizards, but I'm saying post strategies are not better than tron strategies, and people who doubt me can playtest with both decks and see their win %.
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I think the bottom line is that Twin will push out a lot of "annoying decks."
*These are decks that many Modern players LOOOOOVE to play. I love playing Bogles and I know others do too. You can't tell me that Twin doesn't push out Bogles. I know how terrible the matchup IS. I could go on and on for other decks, mostly fringe decks, but Twin will definitely be the end of a 5-4-4-4-4-4-4-3-3-3-3-2-2-2-2-1-1-1-1 % metagame. Some people don't like this metagame. I rarely have, but I have come to somewhat love (maybe love is too strong a word - accept) the variance of Modern.
Would it though? Bogles saw play with Twin around. You are operating under the assumption that 25% of the meta would be Twin. We know thats not realistic.
Post is significantly more busted than Tron. That is why Tron saw basically zero play while Post was legal, and why Legacy Tron is not a thing but Legacy 12Post is. This is on top of the other reasons people mentioned, such as Glimmerpost stopping aggro, faster ramping to more mana, more resilience to land destruction, etc. Given how often people complain about existing big mana strategies in Modern, there's basically no future where Post is unbanned. Also, do we really need more haymaker decks like Post? SFM seems like such a more reasonable unban discussion.
Please, go to Jeff Hoogland's youtube channel and watch him playing 12-post and Tron in Legacy. Tron, while losing to fast combo decks (which post also loses to), is simply the better deck. Of course the comparison is not perfect because in Legacy the pool of cards is different and that includes wastelands. However, people who play 12-post in legacy are just playing worse tron, and tron is not played because legacy players are very entrechend in their ways (besides both decks not being highly competitive in the format, though they got better with the current metagame).
Tron is more redundant and more resilient to disruption, I don't know from where people get that 12-post is better against disruption than tron. Maybe when sensei's top was legal in legacy 12-post was more of a real deck, now it is a shell of its former self. In any case, in modern the scenario just wouldn't be different. I agree that in the absolute nut-draw of 12 post they might reach 13 mana by turn 4, but that is simpy not necessary to win the game. I agree that there are other more obvious unbans at the eyes of Wizards, but I'm saying post strategies are not better than tron strategies, and people who doubt me can playtest with both decks and see their win %.
It is more resilient because if someone destroys one of your 3 Cloudposts on the field you still have 2 left producing additional mana and drawing any of the 9 remaining is good. With Tron if you lose one of your tron pieces you have two lands that are producing one colorless each and now have to find 1 of the three remaining pieces.
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Birthing Pod (I don't agree with this ban, and I actually think CoCo and Pod decks pull green towards different directions, which means that pod could open up new strategies and amplify diversity. I do think there is an argument that pod could end up being just another unfair deck, but I don't see it that way).
Cloudpost (I don't understand why this card is banned, period. Tron is better, and it is legal)
Dark Depths (this - together with another unban that I will comment on soon - can create a prototype for a lands archetype in modern, while also generating turbo depths style decks)
Deathrite Shaman (another quintessencial card for fair midrange strategies - it is unfatomable to me why this card is banned in modern. It covers bases that GBx strategies need to be covering and helps those decks against unfair strategies on game 1)
Green Sun's Zenith (this card is fine in my view, can create some cool toolbox archetypes. I think it would only need to be rebanned if it created some sort of incredibly fast and consistent creature combo deck, which is not impossible, but in my mind also not that likely)
Ponder and Preordain (these cards should never be banned in any format that wants fair decks to thrive. Yes, it makes storm stronger, and other blue-based combo decks, but 1) there aren't that many good blue-based combo decks besides storm and 2) storm is about to receive more hate from another hate card in damping sphere)
Punishing Fire (quintessencial for any lands prototype, this card is not too strong for modern. 2 mana for a shock is DEFINITELY below modern power level, and you won't always have grove to recurr it. Even if you do, plenty of aggro decks can already overpower this. This would be another tool for fair decks to look into)
Splinter Twin (I'm willing to see this back in modern, if anything to have a different strategy coming back to the fold)
Stoneforge Mystic (As others have stated, a perfectly balanced card for modern power level)
Umezawa's Jitte (This is a powerful card, but I really don't know why it is banned. This card basically benefits midrange strategies, that are in need of some help, so I think it is perfectly fine, not to mention that artifact hate in modern is already prevalent to counterbalance this card's power level)
Everything else I think it makes the format too degenerate (GGT, Dread Return, Rite of Flame, Eye of Ugin, etc.) or too unpleasant to play against (sensei's divining top, mental misstep, gitaxian probe, treasure cruise, DTT, etc.). I don't think the delve blue spells should return to the format. These cards are way too powerful in formats with fetchlands, and those who think DTT is not that great of a offender as TC think that only because TC is the best delve spell and they both coexisted in modern. In legacy, TC was banned first, DTT remained and quickly created a tier 1 strategy in monoblue omnitell. These spells are just mistakes, and should never have been designed. They simply can't see play in formats where fetchlands exist.
Read my other stories as well (some ongoing):
Reaper King (a horror story), Kaalia of the Vast (an origin story), Sequels for Innistrad (Alternative sequels for Inn), Grey Areas (Odric's fanfic), Royal Succession (goblins),The Tracker's Message (eldrazi on Innistrad) and Ugin and his Eye (the end of OGW).
I never said all of the pro-Twin arguments are bad. I said they were "almost always" in that category. There is nothing at all unfair in saying that most of the Twin talk is not advancing any particular case because that is most certainly true. There are countless examples of this throughout this thread and Reddit; just read the iterations of this thread and Reddit threads and compare cogent Twin defenses to one-liners and purely rhetorical pleas.
Even if those arguments are out there, which I fully admit some are, they are typically drowned out by the #FreeTwin masses. This makes it very hard to mount a succinct and unified case in favor of Twin. Many Moderners get incredibly sensitive about this issue and assume any argument against Twin is someone that doesn't want the card unbanned and/or that they aren't worth convincing otherwise. I guarantee if people took up this argument in a systematic and rigorous way (similar to the steps I outlined in an earlier post) then others would be much more receptive to an unban Twin position.
I'm with you for a DTT unban (with TC never being unbanned), and I can't comment too much on what it enabled as I only really started paying attention to modern just after the B&R announcement. I think people remember TC being so good, and that takes DTT with it.
Actually, could Cloudpost come back now that Damping Sphere is a thing? I disagree that it's "just a worse tron" though. Post decks have advantages over Tron and vice versa.
A very quick take on these, based on comments, analysis, and research done at various points in the past two years...
1. Definitely dropped. Today, you basically have Blue Moon and Jeskai. As opposed to Twin variants, Delver variants, UW/Grixis/Jeskai Midrange and Control variants, Blue Moon, and blue-based Scapeshift.
2. GP Top 8 and Winners' diversity remained mostly unchanged afterwards (mostly blowing out of proportion the impact Twin actually had, especially outside the PT). This also doesn't account for "diversity" increases as a result of newly printed cards breaking various decks left and right or creating new T1 decks from Tier 3 jank. However archetype diversity is much lower, with a much higher share of non-interactive, linear aggro and combo. This is present now, as it was during the entirety of 2016.
3. While I personally will not be able to test 50,000 matches myself, my gut says it's definitely not too strong. And claims that it would be echo as blankly as those claiming Jace was too much for Modern. AV is straight trash, Search for Azcanta can't find combo creatures, Jace is just a straight swap from Keranos (maybe not??) for fair matchups in the side, and Push is a card to be used AGAINST Twin. Claiming this will take over the format is simply ignoring the speed, resilience, and power of the decks at the top right now, as well as the fragility Twin has to disruption backed by a quick clock, or just a quick clock from things that don't die to Bolt (IE almost all of Modern's best decks right now). As I said, considering it was not too powerful when it was banned in the first place, and the format as a whole has gotten significantly MORE powerful (especially within the first 3 turns), it seems ridiculous that Twin would be anything other than another top deck (just like it was when it was banned, when Affinity and BGx held larger meta shares...).
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
its like saying skullclamp is fine because k-command exists.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)I think 2.5 years of non-communication on the topic from Wizards, while we watch deck after deck after 'near legacy' level deck continue to exist, has probably just worn on people to the point where what else can be said?
I'll try though.
Spirits
Although I believe this is true, this claim needs hard numbers to back it up, not just a few sentences. I would start by comparing the 2017-2018 share of blue decks in the following categories to the share of Twin and non-Twin blue decks in those categories throughout 2015. Incidentally, I have those 2015 numbers already from an unpublished analysis project. See the spoiler below for what constituted a non-Twin blue deck (tempo, midrange, control, control/combo hybrids only) in 2015:
4C Control
4C Gifts
Bant Control
Bant Midrange
Blue Moon
BUG Delver
BUG Midrange
Cruel Control
Esper Control
Esper Delve
Esper Delver
Esper Gifts
Esper Midrange
Eternal Command
Faeries
Grixis Control
Grixis Delver
Grixis Midrange
Grixis White
Jeskai Black
Miracles
Mono U Control
Mono U Tron
Polymorph
Possibility Storm
Pyromancer's Ascension
RUG Delver
RUG Midrange
Scapeshift
Sultai Control
Tezzerator
Time Walk
UB Control
UB Delver
UB Tezzeret
UG Midrange
UR Delver
UW Control
UW Delver
UW Midrange
UW Tempo
UW Tron
UWR Ascendancy
UWR Control
UWR Delver
UWR Gifts
UWR Midrange
2015 Shares
Twin, GP/SCG Day 2: 13.5%
Non-Twin Blue, GP/SCG Day 2: 15.5%
Twin, GP/SCG T8: 15.2%
Non-Twin Blue, GP/SCG T8: 8.6%
Twin, GP/SCG T32: 12.7%
Non-Twin Blue, GP/SCG T32: 13.5%
I don't have 2017 numbers right now, but I do have 2018 numbers for the T8/T32. Day 2 numbers are absent due to Wizards' withholding of Day 2 data:
2018 Shares
Non-Twin Blue, GP/SCG T8: 15.6%
Non-Twin Blue, GP/SCG T32: 19.6%
This means the share of non-Twin blue decks has actually increased, but the TOTAL share of non-Twin blue decks PLUS Twin decks has decreased. For instance, non-Twin blue was only 8.6% of T8s in 2015 but is now up to 15.6% in 2018. But the total T8 blue share between Twin/non-Twin dropped from 23.8% in 2015 to 15.6% in 2018.
*These are decks that many Modern players LOOOOOVE to play. I love playing Bogles and I know others do too. You can't tell me that Twin doesn't push out Bogles. I know how terrible the matchup IS. I could go on and on for other decks, mostly fringe decks, but Twin will definitely be the end of a 5-4-4-4-4-4-4-3-3-3-3-2-2-2-2-1-1-1-1 % metagame. Some people don't like this metagame. I rarely have, but I have come to somewhat love (maybe love is too strong a word - accept) the variance of Modern.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Cloudpost is much better than tron. It cares less about the combination of lands (don't need one of each) and gets to absurd amounts of mana quicker (getting 16 mana with 4 lands, etc). Another big deal is that the glimmmerposts gain you life while you are doing this, shoring up the weaker aggro matchups.
My guess is that a modern cloudpost deck would not look like a tron deck but instead run primeval titan and lean on walking ballista as a primary win condition. Casting a primeval titan with a couple of cloudposts/vesuvas would give you an additional 36 mana (6x cloudpost/vesuvas) the following turn after attacking with the titan. Or the titan could gain you 24 life (get 4x glimmerposts/vesuvas).
The other concern with cloudpost is that it would re-enable the eldrazi aggro decks from eldrazi winter. Running 4x cloudpost, 4x glimmerpost, 4x vesuva, 4x eldrazi temple would enable extremely consistent turn 2 TKS, turn 3 reality smasher starts.
however that quote has absolutely nothing to do with twin. so yeah...
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Cloudpost is inherently worse than tron for these two reasons - you need at least one copy of a specific land EARLY in the game for your deck to start humming, while tron doesn't care about the order in which it draws the tron pieces, and most of your posts come into play tapped, putting you behind the curve all the time. Yes, yes, after you achieve your goal of assembling posts, you have insane amounts of mana. So what? You don't need insane amounts of mana to win, the amount that tron generates (which is 'a lot') is just fine. No need to cast Emrakuls if Karns and Ulamogs will do the job.
Now, let's assume the deck plays with primeval titans, as you stated. How is that different or better than Titan Shift? Titan shift can drop prime-times turn 4 and win on the way back or at least get a land that makes every mountain of theirs become lightning bolt. For cloudpost to drop titan turn 4 they need to go cloudpost -> vesuva/cloudpost -> green source -> green source (or something to filter for the green sources, which would still make them cast the titan turn 3 in a veeery veeery good hand). So, their best case scenario is not even that great, and I assure you they will stumble and fumble much more than that.
Finally, what in cloudpost enables turn 2 TKS? Seriously, in what combination of land drops that don't involve two eldrazi temples is cloudpost going to enable turn 2 TKS? If you drop a cloudpost, then another, you have 4 mana, 2 of which is coming into play tapped, so you DON'T have turn 2 TKS. You can try and think of any combination, there is none besides the already existing eldrazi temple -> eldrazi temple that achieves that. The only real valid concern about cloudpost is if it will generate a better amulet of vigor deck, but we simply have no way to know that until we unban the card.
EDIT: the only way it would achieve turn 2 TKS is with SSG help, which you did not mention. You would need to go cloudpost -> glimmerpost + SSG. With the lands alone, you can't do it.
Read my other stories as well (some ongoing):
Reaper King (a horror story), Kaalia of the Vast (an origin story), Sequels for Innistrad (Alternative sequels for Inn), Grey Areas (Odric's fanfic), Royal Succession (goblins),The Tracker's Message (eldrazi on Innistrad) and Ugin and his Eye (the end of OGW).
Not sure how much credit you can give to those 2018 decks because of the Twin ban. The only reason any of those decks are played are because of unbanned cards (Jace) and newly printed cards (Search for Azcanta and Spell Queller). But either way, you have shown a pretty substantial overall decline in the color/archetype since the banning, which seems to go against their stated goals. Remember, reactive blue control was supposed to be freed by the shackles of Twin and allowed to thrive as a result of its absence. Not flounder around for 2 years+, begging for table scraps while new decks are getting broken left and right from new printings.
Additionally, the share of non-twin blue decks is still just as homogenized (probably even more so) between Jeskai and Blue Moon, meaning LESS overall diversity (in addition to lower overall numbers).
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
What are you talking about? Tron need 1 out of 4 THREE times, not 3 out of 12. With cloudpost, a single cloudpost enables your entire busted mana base, which can be done off a single map or sylvan scrying. Tron can be thrown off with a single ghostquarter, not post. There are a few scenarios where tron is better, but they're the miority. Most of the times, post is way better.
Storm already has Gifts Ungiven which is even more powerful in their shell than DTT is.
In addition to what you wrote a lot of people underestimate the ability of Glimmerpost. Trons largest weakness is fast aggro decks and the ability in the late game to gain 5-10 life as needed against decks like burn is huge. 12 post is just better than Tron and it's not particularly close.
Read my other stories as well (some ongoing):
Reaper King (a horror story), Kaalia of the Vast (an origin story), Sequels for Innistrad (Alternative sequels for Inn), Grey Areas (Odric's fanfic), Royal Succession (goblins),The Tracker's Message (eldrazi on Innistrad) and Ugin and his Eye (the end of OGW).
Post is significantly more busted than Tron. That is why Tron saw basically zero play while Post was legal, and why Legacy Tron is not a thing but Legacy 12Post is. This is on top of the other reasons people mentioned, such as Glimmerpost stopping aggro, faster ramping to more mana, more resilience to land destruction, etc. Given how often people complain about existing big mana strategies in Modern, there's basically no future where Post is unbanned. Also, do we really need more haymaker decks like Post? SFM seems like such a more reasonable unban discussion.
Tron is more redundant and more resilient to disruption, I don't know from where people get that 12-post is better against disruption than tron. Maybe when sensei's top was legal in legacy 12-post was more of a real deck, now it is a shell of its former self. In any case, in modern the scenario just wouldn't be different. I agree that in the absolute nut-draw of 12 post they might reach 13 mana by turn 4, but that is simpy not necessary to win the game. I agree that there are other more obvious unbans at the eyes of Wizards, but I'm saying post strategies are not better than tron strategies, and people who doubt me can playtest with both decks and see their win %.
Read my other stories as well (some ongoing):
Reaper King (a horror story), Kaalia of the Vast (an origin story), Sequels for Innistrad (Alternative sequels for Inn), Grey Areas (Odric's fanfic), Royal Succession (goblins),The Tracker's Message (eldrazi on Innistrad) and Ugin and his Eye (the end of OGW).
Would it though? Bogles saw play with Twin around. You are operating under the assumption that 25% of the meta would be Twin. We know thats not realistic.
Spirits
It is more resilient because if someone destroys one of your 3 Cloudposts on the field you still have 2 left producing additional mana and drawing any of the 9 remaining is good. With Tron if you lose one of your tron pieces you have two lands that are producing one colorless each and now have to find 1 of the three remaining pieces.