alright i guess ill clarify my stance. i tend to play devils advocate a lot. i disagreed with kt's initial point because its built on a false assumption. he even clarified this. showing the before and after isnt proof positive of anything because there are clearly many more factors, some of which are quite big, that could easily explain the shift in the format.
-i played twin. i would like to play it again
-i think the current modern has enough powerful strategies that would curb twins influence
-i think there are enough new powerful cards that would curb twins influence
-i dont think having degenerate elements countering other degenerate elements is conducive to a better format
-i think twin would reduce diversity among ALL decks, because all powerful decks do
-i dont think less diversity equates to a worse format
-i dont believe wizards will ever unban twin
so im pro twin because i like the deck, and believe the format could 'handle' it. however i believe it wouldnt appreciably improve the format, nor make it worse. given that, and wizards conservative approach, i dont think they would ever bother to consider the card as an unban candidate.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
alright i guess ill clarify my stance. i tend to play devils advocate a lot. i disagreed with kt's initial point because its built on a false assumption. he even clarified this. showing the before and after isnt proof positive of anything because there are clearly many more factors, some of which are quite big, that could easily explain the shift in the format.
-i played twin. i would like to play it again
-i think the current modern has enough powerful strategies that would curb twins influence
-i think there are enough new powerful cards that would curb twins influence
-i dont think having degenerate elements countering other degenerate elements is conducive to a better format
-i think twin would reduce diversity among ALL decks, because all powerful decks do
-i dont think less diversity equates to a worse format
-i dont believe wizards will ever unban twin
so im pro twin because i like the deck, and believe the format could 'handle' it. however i believe it wouldnt appreciably improve the format, nor make it worse. given that, and wizards conservative approach, i dont think they would ever bother to consider the card as an unban candidate.
normally I only say "bad" things about twin as a deck, but if gets unban I will play it and I mostly agree with you in all the topics, just not completely sure about the format being able to handle it (specially being able to easily play blood moon).
Now, I'm really not sure if the phrase more diversity = better format it's completely true, being able to play everything is good but having a better notion of the metagame let's us create new viable decks and evolve existing decks in a better way (just a runt about this info hide form wotc).
And how many of those cards are usually modern playable reprints? While only a subset of the total cards found in modern are played competitively in modern, the subset of cards that are modern playable in the form of new or returning cards is a fraction of the total cards printed in each set. On top of which the stubborness of the company to downshift cards that are high in cost stifles innovation in the format and forces many players to have to play the same decks simply due to the price of the components. The impact this has on the ability for the modern meta to evolve should not be disregarded.
Let me put it this way, one of the major reasons I don't think WoTC unbans cards that are potential movers is because of the impact that dredge and eldrazi had on the singles market. The major shift in focus from several archetypes to another invalidated potentially hundreds of dollars in players trade binders at a rate that the players simply couldn't react to. So hypothetically, in the case of twin, even if twin were safe to unban, they already shifted the meta away from the twin meta into a different meta. Unbanning it would shift the meta drastically back towards one that has to deal with twin and shake the entire format, which could cause that same kind of issue.
Feels like its been a good while since we fought over price Colt.
To your first point, reprints will come from other sets. Despite the fact (yes fact) cards in Standard can be extremely powerful in Eternal formats without breaking Standard, there are many Modern level cards that would do the opposite, and break Standard while being fine or even underpowered (hi Jace!) within the context of Modern.
Wizards has absolutely zero need to downshift anything, for the sake of Modern, when they can keep things at rare if needed, or even UPSHIFT and still sell packs.
This lack of downshifting, has closer to zero impact, that it has closer to certain impact, in terms of meta evolution, because evolution does not happen without NEW cards. Sure an archetype may come in and be a flash in the pan success (hi there Hollow One/Mardu Pyro/KCI/JDS/GDS!) but the sheer pool of cards as you noted is massive, and the ability for the meta to quickly (within the context of 'quickly' when events are months apart) adapt is plainly obvious.
JDS/GDS was going to ruin the format remember? Until UW Control said 'nah' and brought out Condemn.
Similarly, Mardu Pyro came out of nowhere (MTGO) and did great work. KCI, a great innovation on the eggs decks, and Hollow One as of what, 4 months ago?, needed to be banned because Burning Inquiry was wrecking people's keeps on Turn 1! lol
Anyway, point is, innovation happens with new cards. Thats how meta's actually shift. Dredge was a do nothing until Shadows and then Kaladesh broke it. Grave Troll had NOTHING to do with it.
As to the 2nd of your points, you actually think WotC cares about invalidating cards with a certain strategy? First of all...well neither Dredge or Eldrazi did so. Eldrazi needed a ban, but that didnt invalidate people's collections. That was just an example of them utterly stuffing up the format in 2 ways at the same time, and then sitting on their thumbs because the 'play lines are interesting and we dont want to nuke it from orbit ' - Forsythe.
Categorically its completely unfounded to say a Twin unban would shift the meta so profoundly as to invalidate whole swaths of the meta. You are literally saying Twin, a deck that depends on mostly 'fair' magic (no alternative costs, no cheating on mana, no 100 spells a turn) would shift the meta similar to how Dredge and especially Winter Eldrazi did, and that the multitude of decks that co-existed with Twin, and still exist to this day ON TOP of the better control decks (thank you Search/Teferi) on TOP of the more disruptive decks (Humans/GDS/JDS) on TOP of Eldrazi and a buffed Tron deck (I dont say thanks to filthy Eldrazi creatures...) and you are going to put an Twin unban in the same context as Dredge and Eldrazi???
And how many of those cards are usually modern playable reprints? While only a subset of the total cards found in modern are played competitively in modern, the subset of cards that are modern playable in the form of new or returning cards is a fraction of the total cards printed in each set. On top of which the stubborness of the company to downshift cards that are high in cost stifles innovation in the format and forces many players to have to play the same decks simply due to the price of the components. The impact this has on the ability for the modern meta to evolve should not be disregarded.
Let me put it this way, one of the major reasons I don't think WoTC unbans cards that are potential movers is because of the impact that dredge and eldrazi had on the singles market. The major shift in focus from several archetypes to another invalidated potentially hundreds of dollars in players trade binders at a rate that the players simply couldn't react to. So hypothetically, in the case of twin, even if twin were safe to unban, they already shifted the meta away from the twin meta into a different meta. Unbanning it would shift the meta drastically back towards one that has to deal with twin and shake the entire format, which could cause that same kind of issue.
Feels like its been a good while since we fought over price Colt.
To your first point, reprints will come from other sets. Despite the fact (yes fact) cards in Standard can be extremely powerful in Eternal formats without breaking Standard, there are many Modern level cards that would do the opposite, and break Standard while being fine or even underpowered (hi Jace!) within the context of Modern.
Wizards has absolutely zero need to downshift anything, for the sake of Modern, when they can keep things at rare if needed, or even UPSHIFT and still sell packs.
This lack of downshifting, has closer to zero impact, that it has closer to certain impact, in terms of meta evolution, because evolution does not happen without NEW cards. Sure an archetype may come in and be a flash in the pan success (hi there Hollow One/Mardu Pyro/KCI/JDS/GDS!) but the sheer pool of cards as you noted is massive, and the ability for the meta to quickly (within the context of 'quickly' when events are months apart) adapt is plainly obvious.
JDS/GDS was going to ruin the format remember? Until UW Control said 'nah' and brought out Condemn.
Similarly, Mardu Pyro came out of nowhere (MTGO) and did great work. KCI, a great innovation on the eggs decks, and Hollow One as of what, 4 months ago?, needed to be banned because Burning Inquiry was wrecking people's keeps on Turn 1! lol
Anyway, point is, innovation happens with new cards. Thats how meta's actually shift. Dredge was a do nothing until Shadows and then Kaladesh broke it. Grave Troll had NOTHING to do with it.
As to the 2nd of your points, you actually think WotC cares about invalidating cards with a certain strategy? First of all...well neither Dredge or Eldrazi did so. Eldrazi needed a ban, but that didnt invalidate people's collections. That was just an example of them utterly stuffing up the format in 2 ways at the same time, and then sitting on their thumbs because the 'play lines are interesting and we dont want to nuke it from orbit ' - Forsythe.
Categorically its completely unfounded to say a Twin unban would shift the meta so profoundly as to invalidate whole swaths of the meta. You are literally saying Twin, a deck that depends on mostly 'fair' magic (no alternative costs, no cheating on mana, no 100 spells a turn) would shift the meta similar to how Dredge and especially Winter Eldrazi did, and that the multitude of decks that co-existed with Twin, and still exist to this day ON TOP of the better control decks (thank you Search/Teferi) on TOP of the more disruptive decks (Humans/GDS/JDS) on TOP of Eldrazi and a buffed Tron deck (I dont say thanks to filthy Eldrazi creatures...) and you are going to put an Twin unban in the same context as Dredge and Eldrazi???
Well. I disagree.
According to the shifts that happened in the decks being played after twin was banned, re-enabling twin by unbanning it would likely shift things around far more than just a gentle nudge. Plus it looks like you are debating from the point of view that they care about the strategies being invalidated from a game play point of view. The effect of having a rapid change of market conditions on the established player base was not good to say the least when eldrazi winter happened. It wasn't just that eldrazi was dominating modern and was a legacy powered deck to boot that was causing problems, it impacted people who played other formats due to the spiking of cards all over the place. Painter's Servant went from a sub 10 dollar card to a twenty dollar one over night, Worship spiked hard, and chalice jumped as well.
It wasn't just price jumps, either. There were tons of cards that had their values shift down during the time and the entire affair was frustrating for EDH players, casual players, legacy players, standard players, and modern players. So yes, there's probably a pretty good push from inside the company to NOT shake the boat to the point of having the market warp and then settle. All the new decks and such that formed gently conformed into the modern meta, and while they did cause prices to go up in places, it isn't a massive shift. From that point of view, even if it wasn't Golgari Grave troll that triggered dredge to go to powerhouse status, that threat of possibly having a dredge situation happen again could put them off from unbanning a deck defining card.
Also, I'm on your side with twin! Don't shoot me in the foot here, I'm just presenting my own thoughts on things.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
One thought on twin and new cards, isn't it possible that twin with these new cards would be oppressive? Just like "sure there are some good blue decks now but only because of new blue cards printed after twin ban" I don't know if twin would play search, teferi, opt, ancestral vision, jtms etc but maybe it would and that bumps it ahead the same amount that these new blue decks have gone.
Maybe more relevant if we think about peordain and stoneforge coming off. Twin would be a blue combo deck gaining on preordain, and I think some people really feared "twinblade" as a deck.
We can't really know, but there's some risk that all the cards coming out to push blue and control forward would also push twin forward beyond what people remember the deck as being.
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Modern
* Esper Draw-Go
* Tezzeret Whir
* Blue Tron
Felidar guardian pod chain almost for sure makes kiki pod better nowadays. The angel combo was kinda loose even when it was played. Moreso now that you can chain a finks into the kiki combo in one turn.
Colt, everything you are saying is because of Eldrazi, and new cards. Absolutely nothing can be pinned to Twin.
That's kind of the crux of this whole issue.
Diversity? Oppression? Too Good? Not good enough?
We won't answer that. However just like GGT I would look at what has happened since (or at the same time Eldrazi...) to form this meta, and format, because it's a whole lot easier to point at Mom Hug and Amalgum as an issue, when those are the cards that ACTUALLY did something.
People like to point at Twins removal as if it did anything.
People find it convenient to say 'Standard doesn't impact Modern'.
Well, I've yet to see proof of the first, and the second is blatantly false.
That's what people need to start looking at.
Adding Twin, will not shake up the meta.
As to TwinBlade or whatever, at a minimum you ran 6 parts of the Combo, and everything else was to find and protect and tempo around it.
Good thing both combos die to removal and disruption.
One thought on twin and new cards, isn't it possible that twin with these new cards would be oppressive? Just like "sure there are some good blue decks now but only because of new blue cards printed after twin ban" I don't know if twin would play search, teferi, opt, ancestral vision, jtms etc but maybe it would and that bumps it ahead the same amount that these new blue decks have gone.
Maybe more relevant if we think about peordain and stoneforge coming off. Twin would be a blue combo deck gaining on preordain, and I think some people really feared "twinblade" as a deck.
We can't really know, but there's some risk that all the cards coming out to push blue and control forward would also push twin forward beyond what people remember the deck as being.
At least, i think that the classic ur build probably would be easily outclassed. Jeskai and grixis twin are, imo, better decks atm
Felidar guardian pod chain almost for sure makes kiki pod better nowadays. The angel combo was kinda loose even when it was played. Moreso now that you can chain a finks into the kiki combo in one turn.
Damn that is SO good.
I didn't think about going off from the one persist creature. Pod is not getting unbanned ever is my opinion right now, but I am going to rework my old pod deck to add that because that is sweet.
In the various Highlander formats, you can combo off with Pod and any 3 drop. Pod the three drop for a Felidar Guardian, blink Pod. Pod the Guardian for a Karmic Guide, getting back Guardian, blink Pod. Pod Guardian again, getting Kiki Jiki, copy Karmic Guide, get back Felidar Guardian, blink Kiki and then combo off.
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Well, I can saw a woman in two, but you won't wanna look in the box when I'm through.
Felidar guardian pod chain almost for sure makes kiki pod better nowadays. The angel combo was kinda loose even when it was played. Moreso now that you can chain a finks into the kiki combo in one turn.
On the other hand, Kiki-Pod wasn't the version that was putting up the results that caused the banning. That was Abzan Pod. Kiki-Pod was actually almost nonexistent when the ban happened, from what I can tell.
the unban of pod or twin will shake up the format, as a blue player if twin gets unban I think it will be the top best blue deck in modern. as for Pod, I'm not so familiar with the deck, but it seems more consistent than CoCo or GW value decks.
EDIT: I think the only cards from the banlist that won't shake up the format or will but in a good way are preordain and Stoneforge Mystic.
the unban of pod or twin will shake up the format, as a blue player if twin gets unban I think it will be the top best blue deck in modern. as for Pod, I'm not so familiar with the deck, but it seems more consistent than CoCo or GW value decks.
EDIT: I think the only cards from the banlist that won't shake up the format or will but in a good way are preordain and Stoneforge Mystic.
Ultimately, the problem with modern is more a problem of how someone goes about winning the game. I don't think that problem is going to get solved by unbanning twin or pod because the format itself is extremely flooded with an interweave mix of the strongest cards from 10+ years of magic history. Twin and pod aren't bad cards, but when there are that many cards to work with it starts to become a problem, and ultimately any kind of card that serves as an engine will be doomed to the same fate eventually. Coco isn't really safe long term and neither is Vial. At some point, there absolutely has to be a power reset or things just degenerate. Such an eventuality would still have a variety of decks that play differently, but the power creep from having more and more cards allowing the circumvention of mechanical limitations is the ultimate doom for MtG eternal formats.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
It's naive to say that Pod and Twin are fine because there were versions not centered on the combos and went for value or control instead. The whole reason they did so is that everyone was gunning for the combos and, instead of the decks being phased out of the metagame, the players just needed to shift the focus to something else while still keeping it since it was still compact. The threat of instant win out of nowhere is enough to force opponents into suboptimal card choices and ways of play that could be exploited by a different build. It's like coming up with the "Sideboard the combo out" strategy on game 1.
I for one, I'm glad those two went out. If it can't be hated out while it hates out other decks from the format, then it deserves to go away. And yes, if it this means Humans also qualifies and deserves something banned, so be it.
The problem is this concept of 'hating out' or oppressing decks.
Twin legit had a 70+% win rate against Affinity. It still saw play and success.
Affinity also had nearly identical GP placements and MORE meta representation than any single Twin variant (and about the same as the combined variants). But people never remember that...
I remember that. I personally feel that Affinity escaped the banhammer by the skin of it's teeth at least 4-5 times during it's 6 year (and beyond) reign. I realize that it's no consolation to say that it was close and I obviously have no proof, but I think that the LINE was drawn right there.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
There is no 'problem with Modern', and there is never going to be a power reset. 1 single ban (Probe) had a massive impact on the meta.
I mean, 'ultimate doom'..come on Colt. Is Vintage dead for any reason other than the Reserved List? Legacy is unplayable (again..reservist list)?
Hearthstone, Overwatch, Fortnite, Counter Strike: Global offensive, Super Smash bros Brawl, and... (facepalms saying this) Pokemon TCG.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
What, in the name of Garefield, does that have to do with Modern Colt?
Those could be issues for magic (though I play OW, Fortnite, and played CS/CoD/Quake before) those are not issues related to Modern.
Even for you, the leap from 'Modern has systemic issues' to 'What issues' and then you list off some FPS games?
Seriously.
EDIT: Man you tilt me so hard, its hilarious. Are you talking Twitch numbers? Are you talking about zero sum 'there is only so much fun to extract from the world' are you talking about competitors to Modern (aka Magic, because Modern is suddenly Magic??) give me a hand in traversing your logical leaps.
Takeaways: Jeskai Control looks super solid and a clear Tier 1 deck.
Jeskai Control is not the Humans killer we thought it was as seen in the GP Vegas data below(quoting Lejoon here)
Tron, KCI and Devoted Company are the best performers followed by Humans, Hollow One and UW Control(quoting Lejoon here).
This may be one of the most shocking numbers of the post, at least IMO:
Number of Byes and Chance to Day 2
Ever wondered what your chances to day 2 are depending on the number of byes? Reading from the pairings and results from the official data (this has nothing to do with deck archetypes) we find the following statistics.
Takeaways: Jeskai Control looks super solid and a clear Tier 1 deck.
Jeskai Control is not the Humans killer we thought it was as seen in the GP Vegas data below(quoting Lejoon here)
Tron, KCI and Devoted Company are the best performers followed by Humans, Hollow One and UW Control(quoting Lejoon here).
Jeskai control vs Tron : 24%.
This is an answer to ktkenshinx, who really tried to convince us it;s only 60-40. He is wrong.
Their sample size is only 21 if I'm reading that right? That's not very much to be making definitive claims about right and wrong I think. Currently my winrate against Jeskai is 17-11, 60%. I've been losing more lately because people are bringing in Geist of St Traft from the side, which is quite effective.
Takeaways: Jeskai Control looks super solid and a clear Tier 1 deck.
Jeskai Control is not the Humans killer we thought it was as seen in the GP Vegas data below(quoting Lejoon here)
Tron, KCI and Devoted Company are the best performers followed by Humans, Hollow One and UW Control(quoting Lejoon here).
Jeskai control vs Tron : 24%.
This is an answer to ktkenshinx, who really tried to convince us it;s only 60-40. He is wrong.
It's a great post and I appreciate his work. I find it a little disappointing that you are extrapolating a win rate from an n=21 sample; I think we all know this is problematic for a few reasons. Sicsmoo is 60/40 against Jeskai with a 28 game sample. Some very simple math show us that the win rate is probably not what you claim it is:
Tron wins GP: 16
Tron wins sicsmoo: 17
Total Tron wins: 33
Jeskai vs. Tron: 16/49 (33%)
Just by doubling the sample size, we had an almost 50% increase in the win rate. I expect this would continue to approach 40% as we added more matchups. Do I think it would be truly 40/60? Maybe it is worse than that in aggregate; I'm not sure. But it's not 24%, that I'm pretty confident in. The 35-40% range seems totally accurate, and it's WAY more accurate than the 24% you cited here. I understand we have strong feelings about matchups but we need to not forget our methods here.
Takeaways: Jeskai Control looks super solid and a clear Tier 1 deck.
Jeskai Control is not the Humans killer we thought it was as seen in the GP Vegas data below(quoting Lejoon here)
Tron, KCI and Devoted Company are the best performers followed by Humans, Hollow One and UW Control(quoting Lejoon here).
Jeskai control vs Tron : 24%.
This is an answer to ktkenshinx, who really tried to convince us it;s only 60-40. He is wrong.
Their sample size is only 21 if I'm reading that right? That's not very much to be making definitive claims about right and wrong I think. Currently my winrate against Jeskai is 17-11, 60%. I've been losing more lately because people are bringing in Geist of St Traft from the side, which is quite effective.
Geist was in the top8 list too, I've put him back in mine for any match I have to be the aggro...
Takeaways: Jeskai Control looks super solid and a clear Tier 1 deck.
Jeskai Control is not the Humans killer we thought it was as seen in the GP Vegas data below(quoting Lejoon here)
Tron, KCI and Devoted Company are the best performers followed by Humans, Hollow One and UW Control(quoting Lejoon here).
Jeskai control vs Tron : 24%.
This is an answer to ktkenshinx, who really tried to convince us it;s only 60-40. He is wrong.
It's a great post and I appreciate his work. I find it a little disappointing that you are extrapolating a win rate from an n=21 sample; I think we all know this is problematic for a few reasons. Sicsmoo is 60/40 against Jeskai with a 28 game sample. Some very simple math show us that the win rate is probably not what you claim it is:
Tron wins GP: 16
Tron wins sicsmoo: 17
Total Tron wins: 33
Jeskai vs. Tron: 16/49 (33%)
Just by doubling the sample size, we had an almost 50% increase in the win rate. I expect this would continue to approach 40% as we added more matchups. Do I think it would be truly 40/60? Maybe it is worse than that in aggregate; I'm not sure. But it's not 24%, that I'm pretty confident in. The 35-40% range seems totally accurate, and it's WAY more accurate than the 24% you cited here. I understand we have strong feelings about matchups but we need to not forget our methods here.
To be honest, I am not claiming it's 24%. I just feel that it's worse than 40-60 that you are claiming.
35-65? Maybe.
30-70? Maybe.
I just can't take 40-60, even by your estimation.
Don't also forget that sicsmoo had a 63% winrate vs UW Control, which makes the 60% winrate vs Jeskai a little bit baffling, since UW is tuned to beat Tron with all of that maindeck land hate(although his work is excellent and I thank him a lot).
All I am saying is that it's not a 40-60 matchup, but (slightly) worse than this.
I can believe it's 65/35 normally (i.e the Affinity vs. Twin mwp back in the day) and 60/40, maybe better but not by much, for an experienced Jeskai pilot. This would reflect my own experience that better pilots can often add 5-10% to any MWP with experience and skill alone.
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-i played twin. i would like to play it again
-i think the current modern has enough powerful strategies that would curb twins influence
-i think there are enough new powerful cards that would curb twins influence
-i dont think having degenerate elements countering other degenerate elements is conducive to a better format
-i think twin would reduce diversity among ALL decks, because all powerful decks do
-i dont think less diversity equates to a worse format
-i dont believe wizards will ever unban twin
so im pro twin because i like the deck, and believe the format could 'handle' it. however i believe it wouldnt appreciably improve the format, nor make it worse. given that, and wizards conservative approach, i dont think they would ever bother to consider the card as an unban candidate.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)normally I only say "bad" things about twin as a deck, but if gets unban I will play it and I mostly agree with you in all the topics, just not completely sure about the format being able to handle it (specially being able to easily play blood moon).
Now, I'm really not sure if the phrase more diversity = better format it's completely true, being able to play everything is good but having a better notion of the metagame let's us create new viable decks and evolve existing decks in a better way (just a runt about this info hide form wotc).
Feels like its been a good while since we fought over price Colt.
To your first point, reprints will come from other sets. Despite the fact (yes fact) cards in Standard can be extremely powerful in Eternal formats without breaking Standard, there are many Modern level cards that would do the opposite, and break Standard while being fine or even underpowered (hi Jace!) within the context of Modern.
Wizards has absolutely zero need to downshift anything, for the sake of Modern, when they can keep things at rare if needed, or even UPSHIFT and still sell packs.
This lack of downshifting, has closer to zero impact, that it has closer to certain impact, in terms of meta evolution, because evolution does not happen without NEW cards. Sure an archetype may come in and be a flash in the pan success (hi there Hollow One/Mardu Pyro/KCI/JDS/GDS!) but the sheer pool of cards as you noted is massive, and the ability for the meta to quickly (within the context of 'quickly' when events are months apart) adapt is plainly obvious.
JDS/GDS was going to ruin the format remember? Until UW Control said 'nah' and brought out Condemn.
Similarly, Mardu Pyro came out of nowhere (MTGO) and did great work. KCI, a great innovation on the eggs decks, and Hollow One as of what, 4 months ago?, needed to be banned because Burning Inquiry was wrecking people's keeps on Turn 1! lol
Anyway, point is, innovation happens with new cards. Thats how meta's actually shift. Dredge was a do nothing until Shadows and then Kaladesh broke it. Grave Troll had NOTHING to do with it.
As to the 2nd of your points, you actually think WotC cares about invalidating cards with a certain strategy? First of all...well neither Dredge or Eldrazi did so. Eldrazi needed a ban, but that didnt invalidate people's collections. That was just an example of them utterly stuffing up the format in 2 ways at the same time, and then sitting on their thumbs because the 'play lines are interesting and we dont want to nuke it from orbit ' - Forsythe.
Categorically its completely unfounded to say a Twin unban would shift the meta so profoundly as to invalidate whole swaths of the meta. You are literally saying Twin, a deck that depends on mostly 'fair' magic (no alternative costs, no cheating on mana, no 100 spells a turn) would shift the meta similar to how Dredge and especially Winter Eldrazi did, and that the multitude of decks that co-existed with Twin, and still exist to this day ON TOP of the better control decks (thank you Search/Teferi) on TOP of the more disruptive decks (Humans/GDS/JDS) on TOP of Eldrazi and a buffed Tron deck (I dont say thanks to filthy Eldrazi creatures...) and you are going to put an Twin unban in the same context as Dredge and Eldrazi???
Well. I disagree.
Spirits
According to the shifts that happened in the decks being played after twin was banned, re-enabling twin by unbanning it would likely shift things around far more than just a gentle nudge. Plus it looks like you are debating from the point of view that they care about the strategies being invalidated from a game play point of view. The effect of having a rapid change of market conditions on the established player base was not good to say the least when eldrazi winter happened. It wasn't just that eldrazi was dominating modern and was a legacy powered deck to boot that was causing problems, it impacted people who played other formats due to the spiking of cards all over the place. Painter's Servant went from a sub 10 dollar card to a twenty dollar one over night, Worship spiked hard, and chalice jumped as well.
It wasn't just price jumps, either. There were tons of cards that had their values shift down during the time and the entire affair was frustrating for EDH players, casual players, legacy players, standard players, and modern players. So yes, there's probably a pretty good push from inside the company to NOT shake the boat to the point of having the market warp and then settle. All the new decks and such that formed gently conformed into the modern meta, and while they did cause prices to go up in places, it isn't a massive shift. From that point of view, even if it wasn't Golgari Grave troll that triggered dredge to go to powerhouse status, that threat of possibly having a dredge situation happen again could put them off from unbanning a deck defining card.
Also, I'm on your side with twin! Don't shoot me in the foot here, I'm just presenting my own thoughts on things.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Maybe more relevant if we think about peordain and stoneforge coming off. Twin would be a blue combo deck gaining on preordain, and I think some people really feared "twinblade" as a deck.
We can't really know, but there's some risk that all the cards coming out to push blue and control forward would also push twin forward beyond what people remember the deck as being.
* Esper Draw-Go
* Tezzeret Whir
* Blue Tron
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
That's kind of the crux of this whole issue.
Diversity? Oppression? Too Good? Not good enough?
We won't answer that. However just like GGT I would look at what has happened since (or at the same time Eldrazi...) to form this meta, and format, because it's a whole lot easier to point at Mom Hug and Amalgum as an issue, when those are the cards that ACTUALLY did something.
People like to point at Twins removal as if it did anything.
People find it convenient to say 'Standard doesn't impact Modern'.
Well, I've yet to see proof of the first, and the second is blatantly false.
That's what people need to start looking at.
Adding Twin, will not shake up the meta.
As to TwinBlade or whatever, at a minimum you ran 6 parts of the Combo, and everything else was to find and protect and tempo around it.
Good thing both combos die to removal and disruption.
Spirits
At least, i think that the classic ur build probably would be easily outclassed. Jeskai and grixis twin are, imo, better decks atm
Damn that is SO good.
I didn't think about going off from the one persist creature. Pod is not getting unbanned ever is my opinion right now, but I am going to rework my old pod deck to add that because that is sweet.
EDIT: I think the only cards from the banlist that won't shake up the format or will but in a good way are preordain and Stoneforge Mystic.
Ultimately, the problem with modern is more a problem of how someone goes about winning the game. I don't think that problem is going to get solved by unbanning twin or pod because the format itself is extremely flooded with an interweave mix of the strongest cards from 10+ years of magic history. Twin and pod aren't bad cards, but when there are that many cards to work with it starts to become a problem, and ultimately any kind of card that serves as an engine will be doomed to the same fate eventually. Coco isn't really safe long term and neither is Vial. At some point, there absolutely has to be a power reset or things just degenerate. Such an eventuality would still have a variety of decks that play differently, but the power creep from having more and more cards allowing the circumvention of mechanical limitations is the ultimate doom for MtG eternal formats.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I mean, 'ultimate doom'..come on Colt. Is Vintage dead for any reason other than the Reserved List? Legacy is unplayable (again..reservist list)?
Spirits
I for one, I'm glad those two went out. If it can't be hated out while it hates out other decks from the format, then it deserves to go away. And yes, if it this means Humans also qualifies and deserves something banned, so be it.
Twin legit had a 70+% win rate against Affinity. It still saw play and success.
Spirits
Affinity also had nearly identical GP placements and MORE meta representation than any single Twin variant (and about the same as the combined variants). But people never remember that...
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Hearthstone, Overwatch, Fortnite, Counter Strike: Global offensive, Super Smash bros Brawl, and... (facepalms saying this) Pokemon TCG.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Those could be issues for magic (though I play OW, Fortnite, and played CS/CoD/Quake before) those are not issues related to Modern.
Even for you, the leap from 'Modern has systemic issues' to 'What issues' and then you list off some FPS games?
Seriously.
EDIT: Man you tilt me so hard, its hilarious. Are you talking Twitch numbers? Are you talking about zero sum 'there is only so much fun to extract from the world' are you talking about competitors to Modern (aka Magic, because Modern is suddenly Magic??) give me a hand in traversing your logical leaps.
Spirits
This may be one of the most shocking numbers of the post, at least IMO:
Number of Byes and Chance to Day 2
Ever wondered what your chances to day 2 are depending on the number of byes? Reading from the pairings and results from the official data (this has nothing to do with deck archetypes) we find the following statistics.
Byes // Chance to Day 2 // Implied Winrate
0 // 9% // 48%
1 // 21% // 52%
2 // 36% // 52%
3 // 70% // 66%
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
It's a great post and I appreciate his work. I find it a little disappointing that you are extrapolating a win rate from an n=21 sample; I think we all know this is problematic for a few reasons. Sicsmoo is 60/40 against Jeskai with a 28 game sample. Some very simple math show us that the win rate is probably not what you claim it is:
Jeskai wins GP: 5
Jeskai wins sicsmoo: 11
Total Jeskai wins: 16
Tron wins GP: 16
Tron wins sicsmoo: 17
Total Tron wins: 33
Jeskai vs. Tron: 16/49 (33%)
Just by doubling the sample size, we had an almost 50% increase in the win rate. I expect this would continue to approach 40% as we added more matchups. Do I think it would be truly 40/60? Maybe it is worse than that in aggregate; I'm not sure. But it's not 24%, that I'm pretty confident in. The 35-40% range seems totally accurate, and it's WAY more accurate than the 24% you cited here. I understand we have strong feelings about matchups but we need to not forget our methods here.
Geist was in the top8 list too, I've put him back in mine for any match I have to be the aggro...
Spirits
I can believe it's 65/35 normally (i.e the Affinity vs. Twin mwp back in the day) and 60/40, maybe better but not by much, for an experienced Jeskai pilot. This would reflect my own experience that better pilots can often add 5-10% to any MWP with experience and skill alone.