So your argument is Teferi brought the hardcore fans back and made them more interested in playing the deck and trying to make it workable. So then has the power of the deck increased? the perception changed? or both?
Teferi and JTMS gave people an incentive to rep the deck and develop its shell. More players repping it means more finishes that get published. More finishes lead to more iteration. More iteration leads to better decks and increased success.
What did happen Tron anyway? Are Humans and Hollow Ones just that good against Tron that Tron simply cannot reliably get to the right combination of 3 tron lands before being dead or almost dead?
I've played just shy of 50 matches against each of Humans and Hollow One with Tron, and my record is slightly favorable against both, about 55%.
It's probably a combination of an aggro-dominated format and the hype of Damping Sphere(2-3 offs in most people's SB's).
Tron will come back hard times!
For a while after Damping Sphere became legal my mirror matches completely fell off the map, but now recently, all of a sudden, I'm seeing them more than ever before. Specifically:
March 26 - April 19: 310 matches played, 23 mirrors = 7.4%
April 20 - May 10: 120 matches played, 0 mirrors = 0%
May 11 - May 20: 65 matches played, 10 mirrors = 15.4%
Obviously the most recent sample is kinda small and so variance is likely playing a larger role, but still, it's interesting. The Damping Sphere fear was extremely real for those few weeks there, and it just seemed to stop all of a sudden. It makes sense though, because the card is usually nothing more than a minor annoyance.
I'd even argue that this is one of the best metas ever for Tron, because there are actually no widely played decks that prey on it as there has always been in the past. I would accept Storm as a rebuttal to this but my record in the matchup is positive. The Sphere fear has made an impact though. I would prefer people keep thinking the deck is bad anyway, it's easier with no target on the back
I have my reservations on SFM being unbanned. I believe Affinity will play it. It represents a 2-for-1 in a deck that generally lacks 2-for-1s, and a way to beat Stony Silence without removing it. Affinity has the flexibility of grabbing Cranial Plating if you need speed, or the usual Batterskull if you need to grind. Hardcasting Batterskull when SFM dies is not as far-fetched as you might expect; the deck has 25 mana sources.
A less worrying observation is that Sword of the Meek can be fetched by SFM. I say "less worrying" because a deck with SFM, Batterskull, Thopter Foundry and Sword of the Meek doesn't sound like one to be doing aggro, combo (in the "kill you on the spot" sense, not the "these 2 cards work well together" sense), or ramp things.
I have no strong feelings either way on SFM being unbanned, but what makes me think it won't happen is future design restriction. I often get told "Well, wizards will never print an equipment so powerful it breaks standard" but I'll just point to the GGT unbanning/Cathartic Reunion debacle as to why SFM will stay banned.
Again, this is me second guessing WoTC, I have no feelings either way.
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Modern: UR Gifts Storm URB Grixis Death's Shadow R12 Bolt
Pauper: UR Puzzle Pieces
EDH: UB Phenax, God of Deception UR The Locust God UR Saheeli the Gifted WBG Anafenza, the Foremost
I have my reservations on SFM being unbanned. I believe Affinity will play it. It represents a 2-for-1 in a deck that generally lacks 2-for-1s, and a way to beat Stony Silence without removing it. Affinity has the flexibility of grabbing Cranial Plating if you need speed, or the usual Batterskull if you need to grind. Hardcasting Batterskull when SFM dies is not as far-fetched as you might expect; the deck has 25 mana sources.
A less worrying observation is that Sword of the Meek can be fetched by SFM. I say "less worrying" because a deck with SFM, Batterskull, Thopter Foundry and Sword of the Meek doesn't sound like one to be doing aggro, combo (in the "kill you on the spot" sense, not the "these 2 cards work well together" sense), or ramp things.
I have no strong feelings either way on SFM being unbanned, but what makes me think it won't happen is future design restriction. I often get told "Well, wizards will never print an equipment so powerful it breaks standard" but I'll just point to the GGT unbanning/Cathartic Reunion debacle as to why SFM will stay banned.
Again, this is me second guessing WoTC, I have no feelings either way.
Eh, I mean MaRo has been pretty vocal about the Swords of X and Y being a power level we'll never see in Standard again, and I'd argue living weapon doesn't have a huge chance of coming back, so I think regardless of SFM's return, we're not seeing any better options getting printed in Standard for the foreseeable future. The Pod argument, that they will always print creatures, just doesn't hold up for equipment; sure, there are always a handful of equipment in a Standard set, but usually they are purposefully weak because of the replayability of not being tied to the creature like Auras are. Equipment are just by default designed to be weak in this day and age. Creatures, by contrast, are what Wizards sees as the glue to this whole game. They want you to be turning dudes sideways to win the game, so they'll beef them up, buff them, throw all manner of abilities onto already-efficient bodies so that players can live out the fantasy of the game that they think should exist. Equipment are a different beast entirely.
well GGT, and the dredge mechanic itself, is an enabler to do degenerate stuff with your graveyard. SFM is much harder to break because its a creature, has summoning sickness, and has an activation cost. basically the card is just more straight forward in terms of design, and thus mistakes can easily be avoided.
the biggest hurdle i can think of is equipment that has a powerful ETB effect, such as if they wanted to use the living weapon mechanic again. although they have made changes to the design process to include people that keep their eye on how cards might function in non-rotating formats; so something slipping through the cracks is less likely.
a card that people advocate unbanning that has a higher chance of breaking something is green suns zenith. im already dubious that the card wouldnt have an adverse effect on green decks. in all of wizards ban/unban decisions they have shown a penchant for preferring a diversity of options, even over helping a color or type of deck. for instance they may prefer the current state of green toolbox decks using different stuff like chord, eldritch evo, and collective company; rather than improving the strength of these toolbox decks but have them all converge on GSZ as the weapon of choice.
stoneforge is slightly different because the options for high value/efficient white creatures just arent there. im not sure about affinity using SFM. that concern seems more along the lines of when people were worried about lantern control using the thopter sword combo; which ended up being unfounded.
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I would actually be curious to see SFM turn a BW or UW eldrazi deck into a force. Most people think of hatebears or abzan midrange, even UW control in terms of what would be bolstered...anyways.
I would actually be curious to see SFM turn a BW or UW eldrazi deck into a force. Most people think of hatebears or abzan midrange, even UW control in terms of what would be bolstered...anyways.
BBE has already done that for RG Eldrazi. Not sure if SFM will do that to BW or UW Eldrazi, it seems really hard to give up mana dorks or Tron lands in Eldrazi decks.
Hatebears has to give up Leonin Arbiter if they want to use SFM. Not saying they couldn't, they have Aven Mindcensor if they still want to keep anti-search effects in the deck.
It's honestly quite astonishing to see which non-Jund decks that have picked up BBE: Titanshift, Ponza, RG Eldrazi, even random Zoo and Death's Shadow decks. That's the thing about cards with low deck building costs, they can potentially go into a wide variety of decks. It's a huge mistake to think that SFM will only help UW decks (or help UW decks more than any other kind) if it's unbanned now just because it was in a UW deck when it was banned.
I think Mono Green Tron or maybe even RG Tron may make a resurgence.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
What happened to that BG tron? Not enough stuff to get tron online with the black removal?
Not enough stuff dies to Fatal Push or Collective Brutality? It seems Tron is either splashing white for Path , or going mono G/full colorless.
A few reasons. The spell-based combo decks that you really want the disruption against (Brutality, Thoughtseize) are at a low ebb right now because of the presence of Humans, so you're fine with a few copies of Thought-Knot Seer in the board to fight those decks, in addition to whatever else you have. Fatal Push is fine but it isn't really worth playing awkward lands like Blooming Marsh and Llanowar Wastes to be able to use it. The main impetus for Mono Green was Field of Ruin being printed, and it's still very relevant now. If you add a color to the deck you only have 2-3 slots for basics, whereas Mono Green's 4-5 makes it far less likely you get strip mined in those matchups, especially if they have Path too. And you have less room for colorless tech lands, 1-2 vs 2-3. RG has been in vogue lately, but as I noted recently I think it's a trap. I think people are way too focused on beating Humans with Kozilek's Return considering it's already a fine matchup with Mono G. The deck already has a bunch of sweepers and those Returns are gonna be dead in hand a lot, especially when you have to cut more flexible cards like Walking Ballista and lose free-win equity by cutting Relics. Abrade is a nice upgrade to Spatial Contortion out of the side, but that's honestly the only thing that build has going for it IMO.
tl;dr: Adding a color dilutes the manabase and increases variance for no particularly good reason.
Adding Red as splash is far away from diluting the manabase. Groves are cheaper than ever, and the benefits are greater than Abrade - I play Blood Sun maindecked for example. It is a real powerhouse against UWx and BGx and anything playing multiple utility Lands like GQ or Field and whatnot, besides making Valakut Decks close to a freeroll.
I guess if any green Tron variant rises again, GR is the most probable.
your whole deck is a powerhouse against UWx and BGx. more colors will always mean more options, but the opportunity cost is still there. i see more mono G lists than anything else, but we will see if that continues to be the case.
if people want to next level jeskai and tron id expect to see more blood moons floating around. i just hope ponza players dont get any ideas.
as for the scg event this weekend i dont really expect anything. imo paper magic just doesnt adapt that quickly, is subject to differences in regional metas, and there is the variance on top of everything.
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Gx Tron will always be a function of the metagame. There's around 6 flex slots that vary between builds and they will change based on what is expected.
As someone else pointed out GB is good against Storm because it gives you Fatal Push and hand disruption. For the same reasons it is good against Death Shadow so when Storm/GDS were the top dogs GB was the deck of choice.
GR was the favored deck of choice back in the day because it meant 4 Pyroclasm in the main and Combust in the sideboard. When the 4 most popular decks of the time were Pod/Jund (already favorable) and Affinity/Splinter Twin the red splash was for the latter two.
GW was popular in the interim. Before Fatal Push it gave Path to Exile and powerful SB options like Rest in Peace and Blessed Alliance. Eldrazi was a powerful force at this time as well as Dredge.
Mono-green tron has come to the forefront because of cards like Field of Ruin which make focusing on your own gameplan more powerful than trying to guess the opponents in a wide open metagame.
I play Tron for like 5 years now and I know about the pro's and con's of each colorsplash. Though the Mono-G version seems somewhat edgy to me because Blood Sun has been legal since quite a time, and it counters any land-based LD plan whilst cantripping and improving prior bad MU's. So you can have insurance against Aggro decks and land-based strategies in a certain colorsplash already - combined with a completely painless manabase. Maybe some more Tron players would be needed to see this.
Value town is literally the most boring deck to watch. I cannot think of a single deck more boring. It durdles like Blue, but it does it all on its own turn, at sorcery speed.
Speaking of SCG, after looking at the schedule slides, it reminded me Regionals was coming up. I go to check online because I don't remember seeing anything about it locally, and I guess that makes sense. I look online for locations and the entire west coast got shafted. We have had them here in San Diego numerous times. Is SCG trying even more to isolate themselves to just east coast/midwest?
Speaking of SCG, after looking at the schedule slides, it reminded me Regionals was coming up. I go to check online because I don't remember seeing anything about it locally, and I guess that makes sense. I look online for locations and the entire west coast got shafted. We have had them here in San Diego numerous times. Is SCG trying even more to isolate themselves to just east coast/midwest?
More likely has to do with cost for TOs. It doesn't really make sense (or cents if you want to be punny) to run SCG events if your store can't benefit from the whole "SCG" competitive ecosystem. Sucks for the western region, especially since no one has attempted to fill that market niche since the Tour / in-store changes were announced for 2017 (not sure if there have been additional updates since, been a while since I looked at it / was relevant to me).
What did happen Tron anyway? Are Humans and Hollow Ones just that good against Tron that Tron simply cannot reliably get to the right combination of 3 tron lands before being dead or almost dead?
In my experience as a Tron player, and this is backed up by talking to a couple of Humans players recently, Tron is very much advantaged against Humans; heck, one of the Humans players said they regarded Tron as their worst matchup.
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Teferi and JTMS gave people an incentive to rep the deck and develop its shell. More players repping it means more finishes that get published. More finishes lead to more iteration. More iteration leads to better decks and increased success.
March 26 - April 19: 310 matches played, 23 mirrors = 7.4%
April 20 - May 10: 120 matches played, 0 mirrors = 0%
May 11 - May 20: 65 matches played, 10 mirrors = 15.4%
Obviously the most recent sample is kinda small and so variance is likely playing a larger role, but still, it's interesting. The Damping Sphere fear was extremely real for those few weeks there, and it just seemed to stop all of a sudden. It makes sense though, because the card is usually nothing more than a minor annoyance.
I'd even argue that this is one of the best metas ever for Tron, because there are actually no widely played decks that prey on it as there has always been in the past. I would accept Storm as a rebuttal to this but my record in the matchup is positive. The Sphere fear has made an impact though. I would prefer people keep thinking the deck is bad anyway, it's easier with no target on the back
I have no strong feelings either way on SFM being unbanned, but what makes me think it won't happen is future design restriction. I often get told "Well, wizards will never print an equipment so powerful it breaks standard" but I'll just point to the GGT unbanning/Cathartic Reunion debacle as to why SFM will stay banned.
Again, this is me second guessing WoTC, I have no feelings either way.
Pauper: UR Puzzle Pieces
EDH: UB Phenax, God of Deception UR The Locust God UR Saheeli the Gifted WBG Anafenza, the Foremost
Eh, I mean MaRo has been pretty vocal about the Swords of X and Y being a power level we'll never see in Standard again, and I'd argue living weapon doesn't have a huge chance of coming back, so I think regardless of SFM's return, we're not seeing any better options getting printed in Standard for the foreseeable future. The Pod argument, that they will always print creatures, just doesn't hold up for equipment; sure, there are always a handful of equipment in a Standard set, but usually they are purposefully weak because of the replayability of not being tied to the creature like Auras are. Equipment are just by default designed to be weak in this day and age. Creatures, by contrast, are what Wizards sees as the glue to this whole game. They want you to be turning dudes sideways to win the game, so they'll beef them up, buff them, throw all manner of abilities onto already-efficient bodies so that players can live out the fantasy of the game that they think should exist. Equipment are a different beast entirely.
the biggest hurdle i can think of is equipment that has a powerful ETB effect, such as if they wanted to use the living weapon mechanic again. although they have made changes to the design process to include people that keep their eye on how cards might function in non-rotating formats; so something slipping through the cracks is less likely.
a card that people advocate unbanning that has a higher chance of breaking something is green suns zenith. im already dubious that the card wouldnt have an adverse effect on green decks. in all of wizards ban/unban decisions they have shown a penchant for preferring a diversity of options, even over helping a color or type of deck. for instance they may prefer the current state of green toolbox decks using different stuff like chord, eldritch evo, and collective company; rather than improving the strength of these toolbox decks but have them all converge on GSZ as the weapon of choice.
stoneforge is slightly different because the options for high value/efficient white creatures just arent there. im not sure about affinity using SFM. that concern seems more along the lines of when people were worried about lantern control using the thopter sword combo; which ended up being unfounded.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Hatebears has to give up Leonin Arbiter if they want to use SFM. Not saying they couldn't, they have Aven Mindcensor if they still want to keep anti-search effects in the deck.
It's honestly quite astonishing to see which non-Jund decks that have picked up BBE: Titanshift, Ponza, RG Eldrazi, even random Zoo and Death's Shadow decks. That's the thing about cards with low deck building costs, they can potentially go into a wide variety of decks. It's a huge mistake to think that SFM will only help UW decks (or help UW decks more than any other kind) if it's unbanned now just because it was in a UW deck when it was banned.
| Ad Nauseam
| Infect
Big Johnny.
I think we are going to see Eldrazi swing back in.
Spirits
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Spirits
Not enough stuff dies to Fatal Push or Collective Brutality? It seems Tron is either splashing white for Path , or going mono G/full colorless.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
tl;dr: Adding a color dilutes the manabase and increases variance for no particularly good reason.
I guess if any green Tron variant rises again, GR is the most probable.
if people want to next level jeskai and tron id expect to see more blood moons floating around. i just hope ponza players dont get any ideas.
as for the scg event this weekend i dont really expect anything. imo paper magic just doesnt adapt that quickly, is subject to differences in regional metas, and there is the variance on top of everything.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)As someone else pointed out GB is good against Storm because it gives you Fatal Push and hand disruption. For the same reasons it is good against Death Shadow so when Storm/GDS were the top dogs GB was the deck of choice.
GR was the favored deck of choice back in the day because it meant 4 Pyroclasm in the main and Combust in the sideboard. When the 4 most popular decks of the time were Pod/Jund (already favorable) and Affinity/Splinter Twin the red splash was for the latter two.
GW was popular in the interim. Before Fatal Push it gave Path to Exile and powerful SB options like Rest in Peace and Blessed Alliance. Eldrazi was a powerful force at this time as well as Dredge.
Mono-green tron has come to the forefront because of cards like Field of Ruin which make focusing on your own gameplan more powerful than trying to guess the opponents in a wide open metagame.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Spirits
Spirits
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Knight has all kinds of fun tricks at instant speed though
More likely has to do with cost for TOs. It doesn't really make sense (or cents if you want to be punny) to run SCG events if your store can't benefit from the whole "SCG" competitive ecosystem. Sucks for the western region, especially since no one has attempted to fill that market niche since the Tour / in-store changes were announced for 2017 (not sure if there have been additional updates since, been a while since I looked at it / was relevant to me).