Back on the subject of prices, one card to watch like a hawk this weekend is Azusa, Lost but Seeking. If Amulet repeats its GP Omaha and SCG Indy performance, this card is going to fly off the charts.
Azusa is already mid 20s. I would say Amulet of Vigor would have more room to grow at only $3.50ish.
The first cards that will spike are the ones that are out there but not being sold. Cards like Amulet.
This is what was thinking. I was surprised to see the other day that FOIL Amulets were only $7 each. I guess Amulet players don't foil out their decks much. It's crazy to see a FOIL staple of the deck less than half the price of Sylvan Scrying, Expedition Map, and other non rares from Tron.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Just because foiling out a deck isn't wise, doesn't mean people won't do it. I recently foiled out all 75 cards of RG Breach and even though I started with a good 80% of the deck, it still cost a bunch. I love the deck and don't regret it yet (even if the 2 best matchups are gone).
Azusa, Lost but Seeking is a card that "spiked" to nearly $10, from $3.50 because of Commander. However, it was Mathias Hunt's Amulet deck that top 8ed a Grand Prix (or was on a deck tech and Day 2ed; I can't remember exactly) that spiked the card to around $23. The card was on the decline since then until getting pretty close to its spike price of $23. I would say the card is worth a solid $23 right now.
How do I know this?
I followed the card and the deck. When the Azusas went up to $10, I noticed 2 in a bulk pile that I had gotten for free. I was tempted to sell them, but was too lazy. When I saw Mathias' list and the spike to $23, I realized that I now wanted 2 more to play the deck. I traded for both here on MTGS, including a FOIL Birthing Pod for an Azusa, which was a gimme by me to him at the time. I never ended up playing the deck in tournament play, despite much testing, because I never felt that I could draw as well as our resident Bloom Titan player at my LGS. I've followed this card for quite a while...
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Foiling out a deck that is on the rise (which may lead to it being top tier) and capable of breaking the turn 3 rule is probably unwise, just saying. Although I completely agree with Amulets and Azusa skyrocketing if Amulet combo takes off. Currently, Azusa is high mainly because of EDH/Commander, if she becomes a staple in a top deck in Modern as well she'll easy increase.
It doesn't necessarily break the turn 3 rule, as it can't consistently do a turn 2-3 kill. Sure, it can sometimes, but so can Storm.
I think foiling out a Modern deck is pretty dangerous and unwise. Considering that if said deck was the winningest deck from the last 3 GPs, one should be very afraid.
Yea I don't think Azusa could go much higher than +$5... If anything it's the amulets and perhaps Primeval Titan. I would wager the lands will be pretty expensive as well.
The plus side is that it's a tough deck to pilot. It takes alot of practise to play it fast and efficiently. It's unlike Delver/Burn where you can sleeve up and enter a GP.
I haven't gotten the chance to play Bloom, but the way it's sounding, it's Moderns version of Spiral Tide? I've always heard that the deck is extremely powerful, but super difficult to play, so no a lot of people even try to pick it up. That would be pretty sweet for modern to have.
I could see the Titans going up, but I have a hard time believing that amulet could rise very high, are there any legacy, or even EDH decks that abuse it? If it's only home is in modern, and as a fringe deck, I don't see it going much higher that 7 (my local store has a playset at 5, so that is what I'm basing my pricing off of)
If Noble Hierarch is going to be reprinted in MM2. What kind of price impact should I expect for the current non-judge foil version? (and non foil version for that matter).
I haven't gotten the chance to play Bloom, but the way it's sounding, it's Moderns version of Spiral Tide? I've always heard that the deck is extremely powerful, but super difficult to play, so no a lot of people even try to pick it up. That would be pretty sweet for modern to have.
I could see the Titans going up, but I have a hard time believing that amulet could rise very high, are there any legacy, or even EDH decks that abuse it? If it's only home is in modern, and as a fringe deck, I don't see it going much higher that 7 (my local store has a playset at 5, so that is what I'm basing my pricing off of)
Careful now, thats what they use to say about pod decks...
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Modern GB Rock U Flooding Merfolk RUG Delver Midrange WU Monks UW Tempo Geist GW Bogle GW Liege UR Tron B Vampires
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Fish
Goblins
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Dredge
Affinity EDH W Akroma GBW Ghave BRU Thrax GR Ruric I advocate for the elimination of the combo archetype in Modern. I believe it is degenerate and unfun by its very nature and will always limit design space and cause unnecessary bans.
I think foiling out a Modern deck is pretty dangerous and unwise. Considering that if said deck was the winningest deck from the last 3 GPs, one should be very afraid.
Damn but I hate this logic. Consider the context. It's very unlikely that your deck will go from viable to unplayable. Foiling out a Modern deck is way more viable than Standard, though not as much as Legacy.
I could see the Titans going up, but I have a hard time believing that amulet could rise very high, are there any legacy, or even EDH decks that abuse it? If it's only home is in modern, and as a fringe deck, I don't see it going much higher that 7 (my local store has a playset at 5, so that is what I'm basing my pricing off of)
This is odd. My LGS bought 3 Primeval Titans for $8 each cash, just a month ago. A card like Primeval Titan could go up at any time since it was in fact, $35 at one point a long time ago. The only thing really that keeps it from spiking is that it was also in M12 (as well as a Grand Prix Promo). The card is also pretty niche in Modern and not comparable to a card like Birthing Pod was.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
The problem with foiling is twofold. One, as mentioned already. Two, is that decks run the risk of screwing themselves up if it's not fully foiled. I know of "smart people" who gets only foil "properties" (AKA lands) but pros have known or told anyone concerned that one is likely to draw either more foils than nonfoils after shuffling. They also run the risk of being checked and called by players and judges. The risk is not worth it.
Which means IF YOU DO foil your modern deck, it's gonna be all or nothing.
@ Deadkitten & MrMondy: Yea IKR. Foiling standard deck is just either plain stupidity or plain rich. But we all know the price gap of Modern foils compared to Standard ones is very significant.
Modern foils are definitely worth more, it's true. They can be nice, though. I was watching a guy at my Modern tournament last night playing a fully foiled out Bloom Titan deck (ironically enough). The deck was sexy as hell.
Also, wouldn't you be able to play a semi foiled deck if you double sleeved everything? That should ensure that they're forced to be flat.
Circling back to my question: Should I wait before buying foil hierarchs? Or will the price change be minimal if she is reprinted in MM2?
You should wait. If she's reprinted at mythic, the price will probably stay about the same. If MM2 sees a parallel uptick in Modern popularity like we saw after MM, then we would actually expect Hierarch to go up in price. But there are reasons to suspect this won't happen, which suggests a mythic Hierarch would cause prices to stay the same or only drop a little. Either way, a mythic Hierarch would put you roughly where you are now.
But if she's reprinted at rare then the price will utterly collapse and you will lose a lot of money.
Makes sense. I guess patience is a virtue in this case. Thanks!
Although if you want the judge ones with the old border. It's probably advisable to just bite the bullet and buy them now. Something like that will only ever go up and is extremely unlikely to go down.
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Legacy: WDeath N TaxesW CEldrazi C
If you couldn't tell I hate greedy blue decks.
Again, so dont play the deck that requires the expensive cards. I make a relatively high salary, and yet I still refuse to play decks requiring cards like Goyf. So I play other decks in the tier 1 or 2 range.
Why cant we make the same argument for Legacy, then? If Im playing blue, I need Force of Will. Yet I see none of you making any arguments to lower its cost (and its cost keeps going up).
a) This isn't even true. Not all blue decks play FoW, and I'm not referring to budget lists.
b) Force of Will is like half the price of Tarmogoyf which would make this is a weird argument even if (a) were wrong.
c) Legacy and Modern are different formats with different views of reprints which would invalidate your argument even if (a) and (b) were wrong.
There's this argument I keep seeing of "if you can't afford it, don't play it." But that doesn't really provide a reason that you shouldn't be able to afford it. People make crazy comparisons to things like yachts and fancy cars - you know, things that actually are expensive to produce and not pieces of cardboard that have a marginal cost of less than a cent to produce. You may think Tarmogoyf "should" cost >$200, but at the end of the day, you're saying it should be kept expensive for the sake of being expensive. I think that is stupid. This is a game and I would rather people be able to play with the cards that they want to play with.
*braces self for incoming slippery slope fallacies*
P.S. I own four Tarmogoyfs.
Something (anything) is only worth as much as people are willing to pay for it. Im not for keeping goyf expensive. Im also not for Wizards doing something to make it cheaper. Let the market handle it. And if you dont want to hear about slippery slope fallacies, then dont make does type of arguments. "This is a game and I would rather people be able to play with the cards that they want to play with." You're in the wrong game if you want this sentence to be absolutely true. Go play cockatrice if you want to play any card you want.
The market for goyf is monopolistic. Monopolistic markets don't regulate themselves very well because new suppliers cannot enter the market to bring the price down. When new suppliers do enter the market for goyf it is illegal.
Would you make the same argument if the electric company just decided that they could make the price of your electric bill arbitrarily high? What if they decided that electricity isn't for everybody? Would you be OK with letting the market handle it then?
To be fair if Goyf were more affordable we would probably see a larger number of Goyf decks running around. I can't think of anyone I have met who plays Modern and doesn't own Goyfs who wouldn't be extatic to own a set.
I think it should be cheaper but not as easy to get as something like Snapcaster Mage or even Bob. The hundred dollar range is a good asking point.
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Again, so dont play the deck that requires the expensive cards. I make a relatively high salary, and yet I still refuse to play decks requiring cards like Goyf. So I play other decks in the tier 1 or 2 range.
Why cant we make the same argument for Legacy, then? If Im playing blue, I need Force of Will. Yet I see none of you making any arguments to lower its cost (and its cost keeps going up).
a) This isn't even true. Not all blue decks play FoW, and I'm not referring to budget lists.
b) Force of Will is like half the price of Tarmogoyf which would make this is a weird argument even if (a) were wrong.
c) Legacy and Modern are different formats with different views of reprints which would invalidate your argument even if (a) and (b) were wrong.
There's this argument I keep seeing of "if you can't afford it, don't play it." But that doesn't really provide a reason that you shouldn't be able to afford it. People make crazy comparisons to things like yachts and fancy cars - you know, things that actually are expensive to produce and not pieces of cardboard that have a marginal cost of less than a cent to produce. You may think Tarmogoyf "should" cost >$200, but at the end of the day, you're saying it should be kept expensive for the sake of being expensive. I think that is stupid. This is a game and I would rather people be able to play with the cards that they want to play with.
*braces self for incoming slippery slope fallacies*
P.S. I own four Tarmogoyfs.
Something (anything) is only worth as much as people are willing to pay for it. Im not for keeping goyf expensive. Im also not for Wizards doing something to make it cheaper. Let the market handle it. And if you dont want to hear about slippery slope fallacies, then dont make does type of arguments. "This is a game and I would rather people be able to play with the cards that they want to play with." You're in the wrong game if you want this sentence to be absolutely true. Go play cockatrice if you want to play any card you want.
The market for goyf is monopolistic. Monopolistic markets don't regulate themselves very well because new suppliers cannot enter the market to bring the price down. When new suppliers do enter the market for goyf it is illegal.
Would you make the same argument if the electric company just decided that they could make the price of your electric bill arbitrarily high? What if they decided that electricity isn't for everybody? Would you be OK with letting the market handle it then?
You're right, as soon as you buy a set of goyfs you get an invite to the illumanati, an organization created to drive prices on goyfs up. We're all in leagues together to make sure budget and/or casual players can't get their hands on them, but for what end....?
Again, so dont play the deck that requires the expensive cards. I make a relatively high salary, and yet I still refuse to play decks requiring cards like Goyf. So I play other decks in the tier 1 or 2 range.
Why cant we make the same argument for Legacy, then? If Im playing blue, I need Force of Will. Yet I see none of you making any arguments to lower its cost (and its cost keeps going up).
a) This isn't even true. Not all blue decks play FoW, and I'm not referring to budget lists.
b) Force of Will is like half the price of Tarmogoyf which would make this is a weird argument even if (a) were wrong.
c) Legacy and Modern are different formats with different views of reprints which would invalidate your argument even if (a) and (b) were wrong.
There's this argument I keep seeing of "if you can't afford it, don't play it." But that doesn't really provide a reason that you shouldn't be able to afford it. People make crazy comparisons to things like yachts and fancy cars - you know, things that actually are expensive to produce and not pieces of cardboard that have a marginal cost of less than a cent to produce. You may think Tarmogoyf "should" cost >$200, but at the end of the day, you're saying it should be kept expensive for the sake of being expensive. I think that is stupid. This is a game and I would rather people be able to play with the cards that they want to play with.
*braces self for incoming slippery slope fallacies*
P.S. I own four Tarmogoyfs.
Something (anything) is only worth as much as people are willing to pay for it. Im not for keeping goyf expensive. Im also not for Wizards doing something to make it cheaper. Let the market handle it. And if you dont want to hear about slippery slope fallacies, then dont make does type of arguments. "This is a game and I would rather people be able to play with the cards that they want to play with." You're in the wrong game if you want this sentence to be absolutely true. Go play cockatrice if you want to play any card you want.
The market for goyf is monopolistic. Monopolistic markets don't regulate themselves very well because new suppliers cannot enter the market to bring the price down. When new suppliers do enter the market for goyf it is illegal.
Would you make the same argument if the electric company just decided that they could make the price of your electric bill arbitrarily high? What if they decided that electricity isn't for everybody? Would you be OK with letting the market handle it then?
Electric company is a bad example. Wizards does not set Goyf prices. The market does. The electric company is selling a comodity that only it can sell, and no one else can resell. Oh, and electricity is a publi utility. Magic is not.
The opinion that goyf is too expensive is just that, an opinion. Its an arbitrary labeling of a card as expensive based on some player's budgets. You might say its the majority, but people are still buying these cards. Just like people are still buying $6000 lotuses (or $30,0000 ones). Which is why the price is not budging much. Supply is not the only determining factor of price.
Azusa is already mid 20s. I would say Amulet of Vigor would have more room to grow at only $3.50ish.
The first cards that will spike are the ones that are out there but not being sold. Cards like Amulet.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Azusa, Lost but Seeking is a card that "spiked" to nearly $10, from $3.50 because of Commander. However, it was Mathias Hunt's Amulet deck that top 8ed a Grand Prix (or was on a deck tech and Day 2ed; I can't remember exactly) that spiked the card to around $23. The card was on the decline since then until getting pretty close to its spike price of $23. I would say the card is worth a solid $23 right now.
How do I know this?
I found the Pro Tour where he played it after the Grand Prix where it debuted.
http://archive.wizards.com/magic/magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/eventcoverage/ptbng14/video3
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)It doesn't necessarily break the turn 3 rule, as it can't consistently do a turn 2-3 kill. Sure, it can sometimes, but so can Storm.
URW Control
WBG Abzan
GRW Burn
EDH
GR Rosheen Meanderer
Yea I don't think Azusa could go much higher than +$5... If anything it's the amulets and perhaps Primeval Titan. I would wager the lands will be pretty expensive as well.
The plus side is that it's a tough deck to pilot. It takes alot of practise to play it fast and efficiently. It's unlike Delver/Burn where you can sleeve up and enter a GP.
UR Melek, Izzet ParagonUR, B Shirei, Shizo's CaretakerB, R Jaya Ballard, Task MageR,RW Tajic, Blade of the LegionRW, UB Lazav, Dimir MastermindUB, UB Circu, Dimir LobotomistUB, RWU Zedruu the GreatheartedRWU, GUBThe MimeoplasmGUB, UGExperiment Kraj UG, WDarien, King of KjeldorW, BMarrow-GnawerB, WBGKarador, Ghost ChieftainWBG, UTeferi, Temporal ArchmageU, GWUDerevi, Empyrial TacticianGWU, RDaretti, Scrap SavantR, UTalrand, Sky SummonerU, GEzuri, Renegade LeaderG, WUBRGReaper KingWUBRG, RGXenagos, God of RevelsRG, CKozilek, Butcher of TruthC, WUBRGGeneral TazriWUBRG, GTitania, Protector of ArgothG
I could see the Titans going up, but I have a hard time believing that amulet could rise very high, are there any legacy, or even EDH decks that abuse it? If it's only home is in modern, and as a fringe deck, I don't see it going much higher that 7 (my local store has a playset at 5, so that is what I'm basing my pricing off of)
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Better than foiling out a Standard deck. Just saying.
Careful now, thats what they use to say about pod decks...
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GW Bogle
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I advocate for the elimination of the combo archetype in Modern. I believe it is degenerate and unfun by its very nature and will always limit design space and cause unnecessary bans.
Damn but I hate this logic. Consider the context. It's very unlikely that your deck will go from viable to unplayable. Foiling out a Modern deck is way more viable than Standard, though not as much as Legacy.
URW Control
WBG Abzan
GRW Burn
EDH
GR Rosheen Meanderer
This is odd. My LGS bought 3 Primeval Titans for $8 each cash, just a month ago. A card like Primeval Titan could go up at any time since it was in fact, $35 at one point a long time ago. The only thing really that keeps it from spiking is that it was also in M12 (as well as a Grand Prix Promo). The card is also pretty niche in Modern and not comparable to a card like Birthing Pod was.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Which means IF YOU DO foil your modern deck, it's gonna be all or nothing.
@ Deadkitten & MrMondy: Yea IKR. Foiling standard deck is just either plain stupidity or plain rich. But we all know the price gap of Modern foils compared to Standard ones is very significant.
UR Melek, Izzet ParagonUR, B Shirei, Shizo's CaretakerB, R Jaya Ballard, Task MageR,RW Tajic, Blade of the LegionRW, UB Lazav, Dimir MastermindUB, UB Circu, Dimir LobotomistUB, RWU Zedruu the GreatheartedRWU, GUBThe MimeoplasmGUB, UGExperiment Kraj UG, WDarien, King of KjeldorW, BMarrow-GnawerB, WBGKarador, Ghost ChieftainWBG, UTeferi, Temporal ArchmageU, GWUDerevi, Empyrial TacticianGWU, RDaretti, Scrap SavantR, UTalrand, Sky SummonerU, GEzuri, Renegade LeaderG, WUBRGReaper KingWUBRG, RGXenagos, God of RevelsRG, CKozilek, Butcher of TruthC, WUBRGGeneral TazriWUBRG, GTitania, Protector of ArgothG
Also, wouldn't you be able to play a semi foiled deck if you double sleeved everything? That should ensure that they're forced to be flat.
URW Control
WBG Abzan
GRW Burn
EDH
GR Rosheen Meanderer
RUG Temur Deprive Delver
BUG Sultai Deprive Delver
Grixis Death's Shadow, Jund, UW Tron, Jeskai Control, Storm, Counters Company, Eldrazi Tron, Affinity, Living End, Infect, Merfolk, Dredge, Ad Nauseam, Amulet, Bogles, Eldrazi Tron, Mono U Tron, Lantern, Mardu Pyromancer
RUG Temur Deprive Delver
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You should wait. If she's reprinted at mythic, the price will probably stay about the same. If MM2 sees a parallel uptick in Modern popularity like we saw after MM, then we would actually expect Hierarch to go up in price. But there are reasons to suspect this won't happen, which suggests a mythic Hierarch would cause prices to stay the same or only drop a little. Either way, a mythic Hierarch would put you roughly where you are now.
But if she's reprinted at rare then the price will utterly collapse and you will lose a lot of money.
RUG Temur Deprive Delver
BUG Sultai Deprive Delver
Although if you want the judge ones with the old border. It's probably advisable to just bite the bullet and buy them now. Something like that will only ever go up and is extremely unlikely to go down.
Modern:
UWUW TronUW
Legacy:
WDeath N TaxesW
CEldrazi C
If you couldn't tell I hate greedy blue decks.
Vintage
WWhite Trash
The market for goyf is monopolistic. Monopolistic markets don't regulate themselves very well because new suppliers cannot enter the market to bring the price down. When new suppliers do enter the market for goyf it is illegal.
Would you make the same argument if the electric company just decided that they could make the price of your electric bill arbitrarily high? What if they decided that electricity isn't for everybody? Would you be OK with letting the market handle it then?
I think it should be cheaper but not as easy to get as something like Snapcaster Mage or even Bob. The hundred dollar range is a good asking point.
U Tron
GW Bogles
RG Loam
UR Blue Breach
RBU Grixis Goryo
BRU Grixis Delver
GBR Jund
GBW Junk
Active Legacy Decks
BR Reanimator
You're right, as soon as you buy a set of goyfs you get an invite to the illumanati, an organization created to drive prices on goyfs up. We're all in leagues together to make sure budget and/or casual players can't get their hands on them, but for what end....?
'78 CB750F, '09 CBR600RR
Electric company is a bad example. Wizards does not set Goyf prices. The market does. The electric company is selling a comodity that only it can sell, and no one else can resell. Oh, and electricity is a publi utility. Magic is not.
The opinion that goyf is too expensive is just that, an opinion. Its an arbitrary labeling of a card as expensive based on some player's budgets. You might say its the majority, but people are still buying these cards. Just like people are still buying $6000 lotuses (or $30,0000 ones). Which is why the price is not budging much. Supply is not the only determining factor of price.
RUG Temur Deprive Delver
BUG Sultai Deprive Delver
RUG Temur Deprive Delver
BUG Sultai Deprive Delver