MTG Salvation

Quote from thatmarkguy »

Per mtgtop8, Mire is actually the most used land in modern right now (Tarn is second). If their supply was equal Mire would quite likely be above Tarn in price tag.

You also have to recognize that tarn is also widely played in legacy and is the most played fetch in Vintage. While wide-scale reprints would likely bring Tarn's price down, I still would guess that it'd still be more pricey than Bloodstained Mire.

Quote from CrypticCommander »

Quote from thatmarkguy »

Per mtgtop8, Mire is actually the most used land in modern right now (Tarn is second). If their supply was equal Mire would quite likely be above Tarn in price tag.

You also have to recognize that tarn is also widely played in legacy and is the most played fetch in Vintage. While wide-scale reprints would likely bring Tarn's price down, I still would guess that it'd still be more pricey than Bloodstained Mire.

I don't have the numbers, but I can't imagine that the number of people playing paper Legacy comes close to the number of people playing paper Modern. Sure, Tarn is big in older formats, but if Modern has 10x more players (not sure of actual numbers, but wouldn't be surprised) then Legacy's impact on the price is so much less, let alone Vintage, a format that almost solely exists on MTGO.

If a new format comes, some cards of new sets will hard spike like shoklands.. They will be the new fetchlands, so it is good to buy cards of new sets more now, bevore spiking. What you think about my opinion?

Quote from 13055 »

Quote from CrypticCommander »

Quote from thatmarkguy »

Per mtgtop8, Mire is actually the most used land in modern right now (Tarn is second). If their supply was equal Mire would quite likely be above Tarn in price tag.

You also have to recognize that tarn is also widely played in legacy and is the most played fetch in Vintage. While wide-scale reprints would likely bring Tarn's price down, I still would guess that it'd still be more pricey than Bloodstained Mire.

I don't have the numbers, but I can't imagine that the number of people playing paper Legacy comes close to the number of people playing paper Modern. Sure, Tarn is big in older formats, but if Modern has 10x more players (not sure of actual numbers, but wouldn't be surprised) then Legacy's impact on the price is so much less, let alone Vintage, a format that almost solely exists on MTGO.

This is a great point. There's no doubt that paper legacy has some sort of effect on the price of cards that see play in both formats, but I would have to agree that the influence is far less than what its made out to be. My LGS is the "go to" store for regional players seeking competition and/or PPTQs; FNMS typically fire with a combined average 70-80 players between Modern/Standard, variable 20-40 players for Saturday Modern, and 10-12 for Legacy (held once a month). Now this is purely anecdotal, but I mention it as I believe the store has a solid representation of players who participate in a variety of formats; I know there are certain stores known for their excellent Legacy player bases, but I also know there are many more who don't/can't support it at all.

IMO, Legacy's effect on the paper prices of something like enemy fetches is rooted less in actual play and more so in "street cred". That is to say, prices of Modern staples with the qualifier, "Sees play in Legacy", are often perceived to hold more inherent value regardless of how many copies actually exist in decks of Legacy players. I don't know how one would go about compiling data to show the true impact of paper Legacy on the market, but it'd certainly be interesting to see how it actually breaks down. I've always just compared it to the concept of price memory regarding reprints and how consumers perceive value. .
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if I found out there were more copies of Tarn currently among all EDH decks than that of all Legacy decks.

For those who remember what the market looked like when KTK was about to rotate out of Standard, think about which ally fetches were most expensive at the time and which ones folks considered to be the "best investments": Polluted Delta & Flooded Strand. The reasoning for this always circled back to blue being the most played color in Legacy; that perceived value skewed market prices such that Delta & Strand had an inflated premium while the other three (until the Windswept Heath Clash Pack debacle) remained stable throughout their time in Standard up until KTK stopped production and the market adjusted to reflect actual demand. So much regret looking at all those months when Mires were like eight bucks lol.

imo there is something other than pure demand that has kept up tarn prices. yeah its played in legacy, but just go look at most lists, for the most part blue fetches are interchangeable and actively preferable in the face of certain interactions (pithing needle, surgical effects, etc). very few decks/lists play tarn because they care about being able to fetch both a basic island or a mountain, with non-blue duals usually absent entirely.

imo there is something other than pure demand that has kept up tarn prices.

perhaps it's also partly because of price memory during the twin era?

from what I remember, tarn is the fetchland who blew up in price the most. I remember when twin was legal, someone was already offering to buy 2 from me at 80 dollars each.

Quote from The Fluff »

imo there is something other than pure demand that has kept up tarn prices.

perhaps it's also partly because of price memory during the twin era?

from what I remember, tarn is the fetchland who blew up in price the most. I remember when twin was legal, someone was already offering to buy 2 from me at 80 dollars each.

I don't know about that, they took a considerable drop both after the ban and the reprint. It's a combination of super high demand across multiple formats (especially now, thanks to UR Phoenix), while only ever being printed in an old set and a Masters set.

That being said, they were available all day for $40-50 on eBay shortly after the MM17 reprint. The drops were so hard, that I was able to pick up foil MM17 tarns for less than regular tarns are going for now!

Right now, I'm loving how everyone is jumping on fetches and pumping prices on the high end while the prices on "just good stuff" building block cards like Maelstrom Pulse, Creeping Tar pit, and other stuff that got printed in Ultimate masters are hitting rock bottom. The top stuff will never really drop that low to be comfortable to buy thanks to how the company prints cards, so the best thing to do is to take advantage of WoTCs mistakes and snap up anything on the lower end.

Oath of Teferi and Call the Gatewatch are suddenly both out of stock at SCG. Possible buyout, or SCG simply removed them and will be put back on shelves at a higher price when the new walker cards are here.

yeah there is going to be some serious speculating going on regarding anything planeswalker related.

Quote from Colt47 »

Right now, I'm loving how everyone is jumping on fetches and pumping prices on the high end while the prices on "just good stuff" building block cards like Maelstrom Pulse, Creeping Tar pit, and other stuff that got printed in Ultimate masters are hitting rock bottom. The top stuff will never really drop that low to be comfortable to buy thanks to how the company prints cards, so the best thing to do is to take advantage of WoTCs mistakes and snap up anything on the lower end.

yeah tar pits were the first thing i picked up after the horizons announcement. its a criminally underplayed land for how good it is, and its hard to believe that UBx won't get any toys. if the commonly theorized inclusion of baleful strix ends up happening, the powerful manland will become that much more desirable.

Not just that, but I doubt the format is going to keep being dominated by all the decks we are seeing right now. A lot of people are complaining about Faithless Looting so I'm hedging my bets that things will head more towards a mid-range environment assuming a ban happens. Technically, this is just financial speculating at this point, but I wouldn't put it ahead of Wizards to do so if they think that the format wont correct itself. Also, anything planeswalker related from Oath of the Gatewatch is going to get speculated on since the entire war of the spark thing is loaded with crappy planeswalkers. I mean good planeswalkers. For some reason I think this upcoming set is going to be like a massive planeswalker deck set that just has a ton of limited only planeswalkers in it.

Quote from tronix »

yeah there is going to be some serious speculating going on regarding anything planeswalker related.

Even cards like oath of ajani are suddenly "out of stock" at SCG. I think they're gonna reprice everything once the new walkers are out.

As an LGS manager, I'm seeing a ton of speculators picking up all of our PW-related cards.

Quote from Crimson Lancer »

As an LGS manager, I'm seeing a ton of speculators picking up all of our PW-related cards.

Sell everything off that you can right now for modern related to the Walker gold rush. You'll be making off really well. Also sell any baleful strix and sell the zen fetches for sure. I haven't gone down the list yet, but doubling season should spike soon as well.

Modern Horizons is poised to be the commander set for modern and is likely going to change everything we know about the modern format if wizards does it justice. As for myself I've completely backed out of targeting any staple over 10 dollars in until after the dust settles with horizons sometime in August.

I agree that the bubble for PW-centric cards will likely burst, but there's still a good 1-2 months left for those values to inflate. Strix can be re-printed (for the 7th time) in MH, so I'd definitely suggest ditching your copies while folks are still willing to pay $10 a pop. However, Zen fetches will not be in MH or any set within the foreseeable future, so selling now would be extremely premature IMO. Tarn may have hit/come close to it's all time high, but the others have just started making their way up to new highs. Even in the most conservative scenario where one thinks MH might introduce a land cycle that somehow makes fetches less desirable, I wouldn't begin to think about offloading them until the week or so before spoilers are set to debut.

Quote from Joban8 »

I agree that the bubble for PW-centric cards will likely burst, but there's still a good 1-2 months left for those values to inflate. Strix can be re-printed (for the 7th time) in MH, so I'd definitely suggest ditching your copies while folks are still willing to pay $10 a pop. However, Zen fetches will not be in MH or any set within the foreseeable future, so selling now would be extremely premature IMO. Tarn may have hit/come close to it's all time high, but the others have just started making their way up to new highs. Even in the most conservative scenario where one thinks MH might introduce a land cycle that somehow makes fetches less desirable, I wouldn't begin to think about offloading them until the week or so before spoilers are set to debut.

It's best to set a threshold for the price point to sell, rather than waiting for the peak to come. The only way to know the peak is hit is to see the price start to fall, and at that point it is too late. Someone might lose out on a few extra dollars short term, but the long term is what is important.

Ordered 8 oath of teferi from SCG today. A playset for use and a set for selling. Just in case a good deck does show up.

Call the Gatewatch has increased a little in price as well.

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On another thing. I'm wondering why Mox Amber is still almost 20$??

A good Standard deck is using it?

I'm guessing Mox Amber is strictly because it has the name "Mox" and also EDH.

Mox amber is from Planeswalker hype.

I'm kind of curious what exactly is going to get printed into modern legality in terms of lands. I doubt that we're getting a new land cycle, so maybe they are bringing Rishadan Port and a few other legacy lands into modern legality? I doubt we would get Ancient Tomb, but the potential implications sound absolutely juicy to me. I think fast mana is off the tables for a post horizons modern, but if they bring things in to give UBx or other strategies a boost it could drastically shift the market in favor of cards that haven't seen play in ages.

Quote from Colt47 »

Quote from Joban8 »

I agree that the bubble for PW-centric cards will likely burst, but there's still a good 1-2 months left for those values to inflate. Strix can be re-printed (for the 7th time) in MH, so I'd definitely suggest ditching your copies while folks are still willing to pay $10 a pop. However, Zen fetches will not be in MH or any set within the foreseeable future, so selling now would be extremely premature IMO. Tarn may have hit/come close to it's all time high, but the others have just started making their way up to new highs. Even in the most conservative scenario where one thinks MH might introduce a land cycle that somehow makes fetches less desirable, I wouldn't begin to think about offloading them until the week or so before spoilers are set to debut.

It's best to set a threshold for the price point to sell, rather than waiting for the peak to come. The only way to know the peak is hit is to see the price start to fall, and at that point it is too late. Someone might lose out on a few extra dollars short term, but the long term is what is important.

Agreed, but that same logic works both ways; sell too early and you're just leaving money on the table. In regards to zen fetches, it's just common sense. What're the odds they'll be reprinted between now and MH spoiler season? Nearly 0%. Is there reason to believe demand will cease between now and then? Negative. Based on the all-time highs for each card, excluding Tarn, the average growth needed just to approach those all-time highs is about 36%; since we know what people have been willing to pay in the past, we're not blindly watching their value increase with no reasonable expectations for a ceiling value. Therefore, if you wanted to sell your zen fetches while both maximizing profit and minimizing risk, the week before MH spoilers is a logical time to do so. That's just being conservative; there's a good chance that MH will only push demand further post-release and we could see prices climb well throughout the Summer into Fall.

Quote from Joban8 »

Quote from Colt47 »

Quote from Joban8 »

I agree that the bubble for PW-centric cards will likely burst, but there's still a good 1-2 months left for those values to inflate. Strix can be re-printed (for the 7th time) in MH, so I'd definitely suggest ditching your copies while folks are still willing to pay $10 a pop. However, Zen fetches will not be in MH or any set within the foreseeable future, so selling now would be extremely premature IMO. Tarn may have hit/come close to it's all time high, but the others have just started making their way up to new highs. Even in the most conservative scenario where one thinks MH might introduce a land cycle that somehow makes fetches less desirable, I wouldn't begin to think about offloading them until the week or so before spoilers are set to debut.

It's best to set a threshold for the price point to sell, rather than waiting for the peak to come. The only way to know the peak is hit is to see the price start to fall, and at that point it is too late. Someone might lose out on a few extra dollars short term, but the long term is what is important.

....
That's just being conservative; there's a good chance that MH will only push demand further post-release and we could see prices climb well throughout the Summer into Fall.

You shut your dirty mouth!

But no, you're probably spot-on.

Quote from Colt47 »

I'm kind of curious what exactly is going to get printed into modern legality in terms of lands. I doubt that we're getting a new land cycle, so maybe they are bringing Rishadan Port and a few other legacy lands into modern legality? I doubt we would get Ancient Tomb, but the potential implications sound absolutely juicy to me. I think fast mana is off the tables for a post horizons modern, but if they bring things in to give UBx or other strategies a boost it could drastically shift the market in favor of cards that haven't seen play in ages.

dust bowl is more a card to modern

Quote from GPash »

I'm guessing Mox Amber is strictly because it has the name "Mox" and also EDH.

Yeah, the "mox" in the name is one factor. People in my area are still speculating it may become another mox opal someday. So they're hoarding it.

Quote from cfusionpm »

Mox amber is from Planeswalker hype.

Ah, I see that's possible too. Did not realize it also produced mana when walkers are around.

Mox amber is a good spec simply due to commander appeal. Legendary creatures are pretty common in that format, so it has some value as another piece of the mana rock pile.