Until Fetches are printed at the same rate as basics, demand will always be greater than the supply. The question is simply, "Where does WotC feel like making money, once every half a decade, or spread out on an annual basis?" One of these is great for the format and the player-base, and one of them is good for Whales and financiers. The answer here seems obvious to me.
the rumor mill is churning, and it sounds like modern horizons is being sold to distributors for 165/box.
with no msrp, multiple big online stores, and print-to-demand; it is going to be interesting to see where pack price ends up. if i had to guess, the eventual race to the bottom should get box prices around 220-240; which fits into the 6-7 per pack ballpark.
]Well, answer me this: do garbage men (or teachers) "deserve" to own sports cars?
I think that people who provide essential services to the community should be able to expect a certain level of discretionary income, yes. And while my teacher's salary is never going to buy me a new Ferrari (Vintage deck), I ought to be able to buy a used Porsche (Modern deck) with good money habits.
Basically, I think once Modern decks break out of the $500-$1000 range, they ought to get reeled back in a little bit. It's not too bad right now, by this metric: yeah, Tarns and Opals are expensive, but the days of the $2000 Jund or Jeskai decks are gone for good, I think. But it's taken some serious work to get there. All I want is a reprint schedule that mirrors the Khans - MM2017 era, where deck prices generally went down quite a bit. In there, you've got the fetches in Khans and MM17 and plenty of the big deal reprints like Karn, Goyf, and Hierarch in the various Masters sets. That window of reprints allowed me to build a 400 card cube with everything but power and duals, a few EDH decks, and two Modern decks. It took some doing because I'm a teacher and a young father, but once people who make less than $30-40k out of formats they want to play, I think you've got a problem.
I purposefully used his own vague language to ask a rhetorical question. I am not actually interested in making this a discussion about morals, which will get us about as far away from whatever Wizards is thinking as possible. Fixed version which also accounts for idSurge's presumed intent: does [person with no money] "deserve" to own sports cars?
No matter your belief system, I fail to see how your response to this question relates to Wizards' goals as a company, and therefore how a given individual's financial plights---which, according to the data which indicates that Modern is booming, do not accurately represent the financial situation of the company's target audience for their product---pose an "issue" that would be on Wizards' radar to "address." This was my initial question and still has yet to be answered.
the card itself really isn't worth the card board its printed on...does it serve a purpose? Sure its a blue 1 drop that might not be a 1/1. I would not put it in a list and expect to win a PTQ or GP though.
If demand was greater than supply, I couldnt buy 8 off of any number of sites, right now, of Tarns.
I can however.
No, you can buy them from other Magic players who own shops and are willing to sell them. SCG is out of them, CFB barely has any in stock; one of the few places you can buy them is TCGPlayer, which connects to shops like mine, and yeah, there are maybe a hundred Scalding Tarns available. Compare that to almost any other card in Modern, and I'd say that demand is heavily outpacing the supply.
this conversation is derailing. the point is that we know and wizards knows that reprints should happen at some point because its mutually beneficial. the masters line was the premier method of accomplishing this, and wizards has expressed plans to do a higher, but more evenly distributed, spread of reprints across products. horizons seemed like a decent place to include some, but wizards seems to have gone out of their way to forego that opportunity.
its still early in the year, and the product announcement timelines have changed. people get worried, but the best we can do for the moment is to wait and see how they handle the situation/issue/whatever you want to call it.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
the rumor mill is churning, and it sounds like modern horizons is being sold to distributors for 165/box.
with no msrp, multiple big online stores, and print-to-demand; it is going to be interesting to see where pack price ends up. if i had to guess, the eventual race to the bottom should get box prices around 220-240; which fits into the 6-7 per pack ballpark.
pretty ambitious from wotc if you ask me.
This means any new card that becomes a needed staple is going to be exorbitantly expensive, since this will literally be the only place to get it. This is extremely worrying.
this conversation is derailing. the point is that we know and wizards knows that reprints should happen at some point because its mutually beneficial. the masters line was the premier method of accomplishing this, and wizards has expressed plans to do a higher, but more evenly distributed, spread of reprints across products. horizons seemed like a decent place to include some, but wizards seems to have gone out of their way to forego that opportunity.
its still early in the year, and the product announcement timelines have changed. people get worried, but the best we can do for the moment is to wait and see how they handle the situation/issue/whatever you want to call it.
Derailing? "Modern Prices" are literally what this thread is about. "High price bad" is something parroted constantly here and I'd like to at last figure out how its parroters justify such a mentality to themselves when the rest of the world (Wizards included) seems to operate in the opposite way.
the card itself really isn't worth the card board its printed on...does it serve a purpose? Sure its a blue 1 drop that might not be a 1/1. I would not put it in a list and expect to win a PTQ or GP though.
the rumor mill is churning, and it sounds like modern horizons is being sold to distributors for 165/box.
with no msrp, multiple big online stores, and print-to-demand; it is going to be interesting to see where pack price ends up. if i had to guess, the eventual race to the bottom should get box prices around 220-240; which fits into the 6-7 per pack ballpark.
pretty ambitious from wotc if you ask me.
This means any new card that becomes a needed staple is going to be exorbitantly expensive, since this will literally be the only place to get it. This is extremely worrying.
yeah i dont really know how its gonna pan out since this is pretty new territory. its supposed to be print-to-demand, but that can be pretty vague in regards to scope or scale. i have a feeling that wizards is going to overshoot rather than under; both because they want to get the cards into circulation and because hasbro is in a position where they need immediate success rather than artificially inflating secondary market prices for some yet to be designed/released product down the road.
its why i called it ambitious. unless the non-legal reprints are brimming with value to prop up box EV (some of this will undoubtedly be included), they are relying on their newly designed cards to do heavy lifting in making the product attractive enough to justify a slightly (relative) higher price point. this includes the limited environment being well made. there is even going to be a bonafide prerelease for it, which i believe is a first for any non-standard set.
its also the first real opportunity to see the impact of the removal of MSRP. afaik challenger decks come out before horizons, but standard precons are more of a known quantity at this point.
there is just too much we dont know. its certainly aggravating getting drip fed that initial taste of details and then stone nothing for months lol.
for example its plausible there will be direct sales from some outlet like ebay, amazon, or even a hopefully working hasbro store. how might that play into things? /shrug
If demand was greater than supply, I couldnt buy 8 off of any number of sites, right now, of Tarns.
I can however.
No, you can buy them from other Magic players who own shops and are willing to sell them. SCG is out of them, CFB barely has any in stock; one of the few places you can buy them is TCGPlayer, which connects to shops like mine, and yeah, there are maybe a hundred Scalding Tarns available. Compare that to almost any other card in Modern, and I'd say that demand is heavily outpacing the supply.
Card Kingdom and Face to Face. If you hurry, you can pick up 20 of them right now. I will admit, they appear to be low however.
Big box retailers almost never release their full inventories. In fact, many will specifically list fewer available than they have, in order to drive up demand and then miraculously get more in. This is not unique to Magic whatsoever, and big box places like CFB, CK, SCG, etc should most certainly *not* be used as a barometer for supply.
SCG has said "Out of Stock" for a bunch of the most expensive Modern cards for a few months now. I know a lot of people lean on the equity argument when it comes to regular reprint discussions, but it really feels like WotC is just leaving money on the table when the market gets like this, and there's no relief in sight.
SCG has said "Out of Stock" for a bunch of the most expensive Modern cards for a few months now.
Which cards specifically? And of those cards, how many have listings on TCG Player and eBay?
For example, Scalding Tarn currently has 36 MM17, 29 ZEN, and 30 EXP copies on TCG Player, and about 75 copies of mixed versions on eBay.
while ChannelFireball lists 0 copies of any printing for Scalding Tarn in stock. StarCity Games lists a single foil MM17 copy, and 0 of anything else. Card Kingdom lists 28 copies between MM17 (9), ZEN (8), and EXP (11).
The cards are available, and for less than the listings on CFB/SCG. People are just not buying them. Who knows why those places are choosing not to list items in stock.
If I had to make an educated guess, I'd put my money on this year's batch of Commander Pre-Cons including something like two duals a piece. It couldn't be just one each as whichever deck got Tarn would be scooped up en-mass. A second guess would be something akin to the Jace's Spellbook crap except for fetches/misc other lands. However, I think the former would be much more likely to occur than the latter. Aside from being a sensical vessel for fetches, this year's Commander decks should end up being home runs to compensate for the mixed feelings they left players with in the last iteration.
I agreed with everything you wrote except this. It's highly unlikely that Wizards will feel the need to goose sales of a $40 product with $90 reprints. The previous year's sets' failings had nothing to do with a lack of fetchlands, and Wizards is certainly not obligated to include them as some sort of apology or compensation. They can release a product with greater sales with good card design, cohesive decklists, and a slew of medium-value reprints. High-end reprints such as the Zendikar fetches end up as prizes in lottery booster products more often than not nowadays, and the end of Masters products certainly doesn't mark the end of that. Even if they do use a preconstructed deck to distribute expensive modern reprints, it won't be commander, lest they end up with the buyouts that plagued the first wave of commander precons.
I suppose we'll agree to disagree. The bottom line is that enemy fetches will continue to climb until reprinted in a set/supplemental product that allows a sizable number of copies to enter the market. Reprinting fetches again as lotto cards would do literally nothing for the regular copies. If they're not going to be in a standard/print to demand set, then they'll have to be in another product that will assure enough copies enter the market. This is where Commander makes sense as a reprint outlet. Sure, it could be viewed as "apology", but the main purpose would be to reprint enough copies of fetches in a product that will sell well and enough to where it won't be an issue for another 2-3 years.
The first wave of Commander decks ran into problems for a variety of reasons; the problem of buyouts/logistics shouldn't be a worry for a 2019 COmmander set including fetches. WotC knows that would sell a ***** ton of decks and thus they would print a ***** ton of decks. The price-point is irrelevant; it costs the same to print fetches as it does basic lands; the reprint equity theory only holds up if WotC has a product in mind in which to include those reprints. Aside from regular block sets, Commander is arguably the strongest selling product they have and thus the next best vehicle for reprinting fetches, assuming the goal is to increase supply. Windswept Heath got a reprint in that random Clash Pack that flew off the shelves, so there's a precedent for shoehorning fetches into supplemental products. However, rather than dumping them into some ***** product nobody would buy otherwise, reprinting them in commander would boost sales of an already desirable product and actually makes sense from a flavor perspective. Like I said, I could be wrong, but without them being in Horizons, I don't see an option that would be a better alternative, save for another Standard reprinting.
I live in a small market, my local shop wont even buy some of the singles I still have, as they know they are too expensive for them to shift in any reasonable amount of time.
You're on the island? If you ever want to trek over to the mainland, I could do transport to get you to Magic Stronghold or the like if you really want to sell stuff in person eh.
Meanwhile, I'm all aboard that prices are silly on fetches right now. Arid-flipping-Mesa for over $60CAD? Absurd.
I live in a small market, my local shop wont even buy some of the singles I still have, as they know they are too expensive for them to shift in any reasonable amount of time.
You're on the island? If you ever want to trek over to the mainland, I could do transport to get you to Magic Stronghold or the like if you really want to sell stuff in person eh.
Meanwhile, I'm all aboard that prices are silly on fetches right now. Arid-flipping-Mesa for over $60CAD? Absurd.
I got my wife's grandmother over here last summer, so dont have many reasons to head over. I'll keep it in mind though. :]
No matter your belief system, I fail to see how your response to this question relates to Wizards' goals as a company, and therefore how a given individual's financial plights---which, according to the data which indicates that Modern is booming, do not accurately represent the financial situation of the company's target audience for their product---pose an "issue" that would be on Wizards' radar to "address." This was my initial question and still has yet to be answered.
I said and believe that I think Modern is not in too bad a place as far as costs are concerned right now. But it was in 2015. You're right that Modern is booming, and I think that's largely because the cost barrier to entry has lowered. You can play a few decks for $600, and most of the format opens up at $1000 or a little more. I think that's fine, and Wizards must think somewhere around there is fine, too, because they keep reprinting the expensive cards -- minus exactly fetchlands -- to keep the price hovering there. So I agree that Modern is booming, but I think it's due in no small part to things like Goyf getting reprinted into the ground. And now the only truly outrageous cards that haven't seen a reprint in a while are the fetchlands, and maybe Surgical, but it's pretty finite compared to before MM2015 or so, which is when I'd bet the format really started to expand.
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I can't say I'm pleased to see you and must warn you I may have to do something about it.
EDH: UGEdric
Pauper: URDelver
Modern: UGRDelver
Draft my cube: Eric's 390 Unpowered
I suppose we'll agree to disagree. The bottom line is that enemy fetches will continue to climb until reprinted in a set/supplemental product that allows a sizable number of copies to enter the market. Reprinting fetches again as lotto cards would do literally nothing for the regular copies. If they're not going to be in a standard/print to demand set, then they'll have to be in another product that will assure enough copies enter the market. This is where Commander makes sense as a reprint outlet. Sure, it could be viewed as "apology", but the main purpose would be to reprint enough copies of fetches in a product that will sell well and enough to where it won't be an issue for another 2-3 years.
The first wave of Commander decks ran into problems for a variety of reasons; the problem of buyouts/logistics shouldn't be a worry for a 2019 COmmander set including fetches. WotC knows that would sell a ***** ton of decks and thus they would print a ***** ton of decks. The price-point is irrelevant; it costs the same to print fetches as it does basic lands; the reprint equity theory only holds up if WotC has a product in mind in which to include those reprints. Aside from regular block sets, Commander is arguably the strongest selling product they have and thus the next best vehicle for reprinting fetches, assuming the goal is to increase supply. Windswept Heath got a reprint in that random Clash Pack that flew off the shelves, so there's a precedent for shoehorning fetches into supplemental products. However, rather than dumping them into some ***** product nobody would buy otherwise, reprinting them in commander would boost sales of an already desirable product and actually makes sense from a flavor perspective. Like I said, I could be wrong, but without them being in Horizons, I don't see an option that would be a better alternative, save for another Standard reprinting.
Agree to disagree? What is this, an exchange of opinion? You're talking about what you want to happen, what you think should happen. I'm not challenging you there. What I'm talking about is what we can expect, based off of past actions taken by Wizards. I ran into the same asymmetrical discussion back when some folks hyped themselves up over the idea of Zendikar fetches showing up in Amonkhet. I talked about realistic expectations, they prattled on about how much they wanted or needed enemy fetches to be reprinted in a $3.99 product. Well, wanting and needing isn't going to get you over the bottom line. Every non-reserve list card with demand is going to be reprinted sooner or later, but the TCG business model is the enemy of accessibility. I'm not saying that putting fetchlands in commander products is a bad idea. I'm saying it's a bad bet.
I suppose we'll agree to disagree. The bottom line is that enemy fetches will continue to climb until reprinted in a set/supplemental product that allows a sizable number of copies to enter the market. Reprinting fetches again as lotto cards would do literally nothing for the regular copies. If they're not going to be in a standard/print to demand set, then they'll have to be in another product that will assure enough copies enter the market. This is where Commander makes sense as a reprint outlet. Sure, it could be viewed as "apology", but the main purpose would be to reprint enough copies of fetches in a product that will sell well and enough to where it won't be an issue for another 2-3 years.
as i understand it, and this is gleamed from that interview with gavin verhey, the barrier that ( wizards believes exists to some extent) is that they would prefer people were buying format centric products with the intent of actually using them for that format. so like they want the commander decks to be attractive (and importantly available without getting gouged) for commander players. afaik fetchlands are important to edh players so maybe its plausible.
Like I said, I could be wrong, but without them being in Horizons, I don't see an option that would be a better alternative, save for another Standard reprinting.
this is really the sentiment that started this discussion. we know wizards wants to do reprints because its profitable, and players want reprints because it means prices drop. however based on the premise i mentioned above wizards is hoping to find where reprints 'fit' so that they align with the appropriate target base, but there will be more of them per product to offset the void that the masters line left.
atm we have very little information on what types of products will be released this year, let alone when; however the glaring absence of modern reprints in a modern focused set has a whole lotta people wondering 'so if they arent here...where the hell are they gonna be?'. however this conundrum or puzzle or whatever is solved is a complete unknown, and we just gotta wait.
we know they canned 2 additional masters sets in the works on short notice in Q4 of 2018, but at the same time the inception of modern horizons supposedly happened some time in 2017 if not earlier. its very likely the set was being designed/developed with the assumption that masters would still be around.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
the TCG business model is the enemy of accessibility. I'm not saying that putting fetchlands in commander products is a bad idea. I'm saying it's a bad bet.
i agree with this for the most part. however as i mentioned like a page or two ago, it isnt all or nothing. wizards still wants to maintain growth, and rising prices can be a sign of that. however wizards still wants to modulate the economy at a point that strings the largest number of players along (for the longest period of time). there may not be some arbitrary point where prices are 'too high', but it only makes sense that at some point it becomes a detriment to growth and long term profitability. where that point is mostly only known by wizards/hasbro, determined by whatever market research theyre doing; however this push and pull has been going on long enough that players get a sense of it.
enemy fetches seems to be salient example, but its a lot of cards. just look at manamorphose, or previously with mishra's bauble. these cards ballooned in price specifically because there were so few in circulation. so TCGs/wotc may be the enemy of accessibility, but paying over a hundred dollars for a play set of commons/uncommons just isnt gonna fly.
they should want to reprint these cards because it sells. the problem is that there is no reasonable outlet in sight that can do them in the appropriate quantities. frankly im not sure if commander decks inject enough supply to even make a (meaningful) dent on fetch lands or any of the other cards within that top tier price point.
[quote from="Joban8 »" url="/forums/the-game/modern/554992-modern-prices-discussion?comment=14669"]
Agree to disagree? What is this, an exchange of opinion? You're talking about what you want to happen, what you think should happen. I'm not challenging you there. What I'm talking about is what we can expect, based off of past actions taken by Wizards. I ran into the same asymmetrical discussion back when some folks hyped themselves up over the idea of Zendikar fetches showing up in Amonkhet. I talked about realistic expectations, they prattled on about how much they wanted or needed enemy fetches to be reprinted in a $3.99 product. Well, wanting and needing isn't going to get you over the bottom line. Every non-reserve list card with demand is going to be reprinted sooner or later, but the TCG business model is the enemy of accessibility. I'm not saying that putting fetchlands in commander products is a bad idea. I'm saying it's a bad bet.
OK, so what can we expect? Because thus far you've just been saying why things won't happen instead of reasoning a realistic alternative. I neither want nor think any of what I suggested should happen; hence why I reasoned it would make sense based on the information we have. If we're talking wants, I want Modern Masters 2019. But that's not happening, so we must look at plausible alternatives aaaaand now we've come full circle.
In other news, it appears that enemy fetches have been the only ones to move post-MH announcement. Aside from Bloodstained Mire, every ally fetch can still be had for under $20 USD. Thanks to Shocks getting their third reprint, anyone needing fetches for a modern build can still get away with using allied fetches exclusively, save for the handful of corner cases where consistency makes a considerable difference.
Hopefully, the enemy fetches would be reprinted soon. Sometimes, a deck really needs them. Currently building Mardu Pyro... marsh flats are still better than polluted delta... because delta cannot fetch the single basic plains in the deck. The last reprint was 2017, makes me wonder if they are waiting for all enemy fetches to be scalding tarn price before doing any reprint?
Hmm, and surprised that Blodstained Mire has increased.
Per mtgtop8, Mire is actually the most used land in modern right now (Tarn is second). If their supply was equal Mire would quite likely be above Tarn in price tag.
OK, so what can we expect? Because thus far you've just been saying why things won't happen instead of reasoning a realistic alternative. I neither want nor think any of what I suggested should happen; hence why I reasoned it would make sense based on the information we have. If we're talking wants, I want Modern Masters 2019. But that's not happening, so we must look at plausible alternatives aaaaand now we've come full circle.
In other news, it appears that enemy fetches have been the only ones to move post-MH announcement. Aside from Bloodstained Mire, every ally fetch can still be had for under $20 USD. Thanks to Shocks getting their third reprint, anyone needing fetches for a modern build can still get away with using allied fetches exclusively, save for the handful of corner cases where consistency makes a considerable difference.
I've already mentioned likely alternatives to your fixation on Commander products. For one, a booster product that replaces Modern Masters is quite likely, preferably in a more consumer-friendly manner that frees it from some of the baggage that brought down the Masters series. I explicitly mentioned the idea of a new, modern-focused line of preconstructed decks in one of my responses to you. You brought up the idea of something along the lines of Signature Spellbook directed at Modern, which would be an excellent way to go about targeted, themed, narrow-scoped reprints of needed cards.
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If demand was greater than supply, I couldnt buy 8 off of any number of sites, right now, of Tarns.
I can however.
Spirits
with no msrp, multiple big online stores, and print-to-demand; it is going to be interesting to see where pack price ends up. if i had to guess, the eventual race to the bottom should get box prices around 220-240; which fits into the 6-7 per pack ballpark.
pretty ambitious from wotc if you ask me.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)No matter your belief system, I fail to see how your response to this question relates to Wizards' goals as a company, and therefore how a given individual's financial plights---which, according to the data which indicates that Modern is booming, do not accurately represent the financial situation of the company's target audience for their product---pose an "issue" that would be on Wizards' radar to "address." This was my initial question and still has yet to be answered.
Counter-Cat
Colorless Eldrazi Stompy
No, you can buy them from other Magic players who own shops and are willing to sell them. SCG is out of them, CFB barely has any in stock; one of the few places you can buy them is TCGPlayer, which connects to shops like mine, and yeah, there are maybe a hundred Scalding Tarns available. Compare that to almost any other card in Modern, and I'd say that demand is heavily outpacing the supply.
its still early in the year, and the product announcement timelines have changed. people get worried, but the best we can do for the moment is to wait and see how they handle the situation/issue/whatever you want to call it.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)As someone in the industry, this is a hell of an understatement, uggghhh.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Counter-Cat
Colorless Eldrazi Stompy
yeah i dont really know how its gonna pan out since this is pretty new territory. its supposed to be print-to-demand, but that can be pretty vague in regards to scope or scale. i have a feeling that wizards is going to overshoot rather than under; both because they want to get the cards into circulation and because hasbro is in a position where they need immediate success rather than artificially inflating secondary market prices for some yet to be designed/released product down the road.
its why i called it ambitious. unless the non-legal reprints are brimming with value to prop up box EV (some of this will undoubtedly be included), they are relying on their newly designed cards to do heavy lifting in making the product attractive enough to justify a slightly (relative) higher price point. this includes the limited environment being well made. there is even going to be a bonafide prerelease for it, which i believe is a first for any non-standard set.
its also the first real opportunity to see the impact of the removal of MSRP. afaik challenger decks come out before horizons, but standard precons are more of a known quantity at this point.
there is just too much we dont know. its certainly aggravating getting drip fed that initial taste of details and then stone nothing for months lol.
for example its plausible there will be direct sales from some outlet like ebay, amazon, or even a hopefully working hasbro store. how might that play into things? /shrug
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Card Kingdom and Face to Face. If you hurry, you can pick up 20 of them right now. I will admit, they appear to be low however.
Certainly time for a reprint.
Spirits
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Which cards specifically? And of those cards, how many have listings on TCG Player and eBay?
For example, Scalding Tarn currently has 36 MM17, 29 ZEN, and 30 EXP copies on TCG Player, and about 75 copies of mixed versions on eBay.
while ChannelFireball lists 0 copies of any printing for Scalding Tarn in stock. StarCity Games lists a single foil MM17 copy, and 0 of anything else. Card Kingdom lists 28 copies between MM17 (9), ZEN (8), and EXP (11).
The cards are available, and for less than the listings on CFB/SCG. People are just not buying them. Who knows why those places are choosing not to list items in stock.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
I suppose we'll agree to disagree. The bottom line is that enemy fetches will continue to climb until reprinted in a set/supplemental product that allows a sizable number of copies to enter the market. Reprinting fetches again as lotto cards would do literally nothing for the regular copies. If they're not going to be in a standard/print to demand set, then they'll have to be in another product that will assure enough copies enter the market. This is where Commander makes sense as a reprint outlet. Sure, it could be viewed as "apology", but the main purpose would be to reprint enough copies of fetches in a product that will sell well and enough to where it won't be an issue for another 2-3 years.
The first wave of Commander decks ran into problems for a variety of reasons; the problem of buyouts/logistics shouldn't be a worry for a 2019 COmmander set including fetches. WotC knows that would sell a ***** ton of decks and thus they would print a ***** ton of decks. The price-point is irrelevant; it costs the same to print fetches as it does basic lands; the reprint equity theory only holds up if WotC has a product in mind in which to include those reprints. Aside from regular block sets, Commander is arguably the strongest selling product they have and thus the next best vehicle for reprinting fetches, assuming the goal is to increase supply. Windswept Heath got a reprint in that random Clash Pack that flew off the shelves, so there's a precedent for shoehorning fetches into supplemental products. However, rather than dumping them into some ***** product nobody would buy otherwise, reprinting them in commander would boost sales of an already desirable product and actually makes sense from a flavor perspective. Like I said, I could be wrong, but without them being in Horizons, I don't see an option that would be a better alternative, save for another Standard reprinting.
Link to Discord server where anybody from MTGS can keep up with thread topics while everything is being sorted out with the new site.
You're on the island? If you ever want to trek over to the mainland, I could do transport to get you to Magic Stronghold or the like if you really want to sell stuff in person eh.
Meanwhile, I'm all aboard that prices are silly on fetches right now. Arid-flipping-Mesa for over $60CAD? Absurd.
Modern: Storm
Legacy: ANT
I got my wife's grandmother over here last summer, so dont have many reasons to head over. I'll keep it in mind though. :]
Spirits
I said and believe that I think Modern is not in too bad a place as far as costs are concerned right now. But it was in 2015. You're right that Modern is booming, and I think that's largely because the cost barrier to entry has lowered. You can play a few decks for $600, and most of the format opens up at $1000 or a little more. I think that's fine, and Wizards must think somewhere around there is fine, too, because they keep reprinting the expensive cards -- minus exactly fetchlands -- to keep the price hovering there. So I agree that Modern is booming, but I think it's due in no small part to things like Goyf getting reprinted into the ground. And now the only truly outrageous cards that haven't seen a reprint in a while are the fetchlands, and maybe Surgical, but it's pretty finite compared to before MM2015 or so, which is when I'd bet the format really started to expand.
EDH: UGEdric
Pauper: UR Delver
Modern: UGR Delver
Draft my cube: Eric's 390 Unpowered
Agree to disagree? What is this, an exchange of opinion? You're talking about what you want to happen, what you think should happen. I'm not challenging you there. What I'm talking about is what we can expect, based off of past actions taken by Wizards. I ran into the same asymmetrical discussion back when some folks hyped themselves up over the idea of Zendikar fetches showing up in Amonkhet. I talked about realistic expectations, they prattled on about how much they wanted or needed enemy fetches to be reprinted in a $3.99 product. Well, wanting and needing isn't going to get you over the bottom line. Every non-reserve list card with demand is going to be reprinted sooner or later, but the TCG business model is the enemy of accessibility. I'm not saying that putting fetchlands in commander products is a bad idea. I'm saying it's a bad bet.
this is really the sentiment that started this discussion. we know wizards wants to do reprints because its profitable, and players want reprints because it means prices drop. however based on the premise i mentioned above wizards is hoping to find where reprints 'fit' so that they align with the appropriate target base, but there will be more of them per product to offset the void that the masters line left.
atm we have very little information on what types of products will be released this year, let alone when; however the glaring absence of modern reprints in a modern focused set has a whole lotta people wondering 'so if they arent here...where the hell are they gonna be?'. however this conundrum or puzzle or whatever is solved is a complete unknown, and we just gotta wait.
we know they canned 2 additional masters sets in the works on short notice in Q4 of 2018, but at the same time the inception of modern horizons supposedly happened some time in 2017 if not earlier. its very likely the set was being designed/developed with the assumption that masters would still be around.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)i agree with this for the most part. however as i mentioned like a page or two ago, it isnt all or nothing. wizards still wants to maintain growth, and rising prices can be a sign of that. however wizards still wants to modulate the economy at a point that strings the largest number of players along (for the longest period of time). there may not be some arbitrary point where prices are 'too high', but it only makes sense that at some point it becomes a detriment to growth and long term profitability. where that point is mostly only known by wizards/hasbro, determined by whatever market research theyre doing; however this push and pull has been going on long enough that players get a sense of it.
enemy fetches seems to be salient example, but its a lot of cards. just look at manamorphose, or previously with mishra's bauble. these cards ballooned in price specifically because there were so few in circulation. so TCGs/wotc may be the enemy of accessibility, but paying over a hundred dollars for a play set of commons/uncommons just isnt gonna fly.
they should want to reprint these cards because it sells. the problem is that there is no reasonable outlet in sight that can do them in the appropriate quantities. frankly im not sure if commander decks inject enough supply to even make a (meaningful) dent on fetch lands or any of the other cards within that top tier price point.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)OK, so what can we expect? Because thus far you've just been saying why things won't happen instead of reasoning a realistic alternative. I neither want nor think any of what I suggested should happen; hence why I reasoned it would make sense based on the information we have. If we're talking wants, I want Modern Masters 2019. But that's not happening, so we must look at plausible alternatives aaaaand now we've come full circle.
In other news, it appears that enemy fetches have been the only ones to move post-MH announcement. Aside from Bloodstained Mire, every ally fetch can still be had for under $20 USD. Thanks to Shocks getting their third reprint, anyone needing fetches for a modern build can still get away with using allied fetches exclusively, save for the handful of corner cases where consistency makes a considerable difference.
Link to Discord server where anybody from MTGS can keep up with thread topics while everything is being sorted out with the new site.
Hmm, and surprised that Blodstained Mire has increased.
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Want to play a UW control deck in modern, but don't have jace or snaps?
Please come visit us at the Emeria Titan control thread
I've already mentioned likely alternatives to your fixation on Commander products. For one, a booster product that replaces Modern Masters is quite likely, preferably in a more consumer-friendly manner that frees it from some of the baggage that brought down the Masters series. I explicitly mentioned the idea of a new, modern-focused line of preconstructed decks in one of my responses to you. You brought up the idea of something along the lines of Signature Spellbook directed at Modern, which would be an excellent way to go about targeted, themed, narrow-scoped reprints of needed cards.