Ritual Gifts put up a number of results (all in: 1 GP top 8, 1 GP top 16, control: too many to count on local scene and a couple solid records at PTQs). Hive Mind made some ptq top 8s I believe. I can't speak to AIR and Dragonstorm, however. And at the risk of getting off-topic, even if a ban only kills decks that aren't putting up any results, it still hurts the people playing them, which represents a very real harm to the overall diversity of the format, which has to be outwieghed by the benefits of the ban.
Also, a brief aside: In the Alara/Zendikar season, in between Worldwake and Rise, UW control managed precisely 0 top 8s until the very last week of the season (where it won 3 major tournaments in a row, in the last week before Rise came out). However, a rigorous statistical analysis of online win rates by archetype on TCGPlayer (see William Spaniel's Power Rankings articles at the time) found that UW Control managed a win percentage of over 70% at first, eventually falling to 59% at the end of the season. This made it by far the best deck by win percentage in the format (Jund hovered around 53% the entire time). The only decks even close to it at any point were Naya and White Weenie, neither of which ever managed to pass it. It was demonstrably the best deck in the format, by the only metric that matters: match wins. Why is that relevant? Because it shows that putting up results, especially if you only count top 8s or god forbid only count wins at GPs, pro tours, and even if you include SCG Opens (not relevant here) and PTQs, is a TERRIBLE way to determine if a deck is good. The sample size is minuscule, the amount of randomness involved is immense, and it's strongly influenced by the choices the pros make, since their playskill and team testing gives them a better chance of a top 8 even if they choose a weaker deck. Statistical analysis of match win rates, assuming a large enough randomized sample of games, is infinitely better. If there isn't a good enough sample available, you can divide top 8 presence by overall presence in the field, or day 2 presence by day 1 presence. That needs a decent sample as well, but a much smaller one, and it's still more accurate that just raw results.
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Blue Moon will still be a deck after this. Countering spells, disrupting mana bases and making a million 1/0s with Master is good enough. An amazing meta call and one that will probably still be around.
I talk about zoo and this metas impact in the zoo thread if anyone cares to read about it... but heres my over all thoughts on this meta, even before the top 8.
Zoo was hated out, partly because of hate, partly because fast zoo lost to big zoo, big zoo cant race combo. Vicious Cycle.
That being said, Zoo is still a tier 1 deck, that everyone had to over prepare for to keep it at bay. Its far from dead, just waiting til hate balances out
Combo did so well because it could beat zoo, which was most of the field. Combo did warp itself to be better against zoo though, meaning that it loses to more all in combos
The fact combo is back in force means Control has a deck to beat. Hell fae has decks to fight, which is good news for them. Control is going to get a better footing on the meta now. COmbo beats aggro, control beats combo, Aggro beats a control that geared to beat combo.
Jund showed it isnt dead, just a lot of people assumed it was and it lost attendance. Now we have that corsair, pyro version, you'll find it show up again. And since fast combo is everywhere... and jund beats those decks easy... It has a deck to pray on, meaning it as a place in the meta.
We now have a deck that punishes greed. It loses to nongreedy decks. Thats how legacy lock decks work. Modern has matured a little. This is healthy for the format. More checks and balances. it wont go away, but will be played for a while, then lose popularity.
Over all, this meta is a bit skewed. But thats good. We've seen some decks, and what new decks should look like. MTGO will take those lists and prefect them. Soon well have the diverse meta up and running again. what really maters is the next protour, the one in like 2 weeks. Thats where people are going to take the hard work the "Pros" did and put it to use.
What the pro tour shows is that the meta is basically going to be 2 steps ahead of what the Online meta is. If zoo is the best online deck in the dark(still is) people will play the deck that beats the anti zoo deck(big zoo or pod in this case). Pod Happens to fold pretty hard to blood moon as times as well, so the deck just hit all the right spots. Fact is any of the tier 1/2 decks can top 8 with the help of a good 5-1 or 6-0 draft, but when it comes to head to head i feel Twin probably has the most good matchups.
Im curious what its UWR matchup is. Does turning off colonnades really destroy UWR? What do you guys think? If it has an even UWR matchup i could see this deck becoming a more permanent thing. If it can't beat UWR it probably will fall off the radar quite a bit.
What the pro tour shows is that the meta is basically going to be 2 steps ahead of what the Online meta is. If zoo is the best online deck in the dark(still is) people will play the deck that beats the anti zoo deck. Pod Happens to fold pretty hard to blood moon as times as well, so the deck just hit all the right spots.
Im curious what its UWR matchup is. Does turning off colonnades really destroy UWR? What do you guys think? If it has an even UWR matchup i could see this deck becoming a more permanent thing. If it can't beat UWR it probably will fall off the radar quite a bit.
It seems at least even against WUR. It has a similar amount of counterspells, its creatures are out of the bolt range, and it can end the game faster than WUR Control.
Let's just assume that if a deck is working towards turn 4 Cryptic and it's either more than 2 colors or doesn't have purely on-color fetches, it's going to have to make sure Blood Moon never resolves.
Jund showed it isnt dead, just a lot of people assumed it was and it lost attendance. Now we have that corsair, pyro version, you'll find it show up again. And since fast combo is everywhere... and jund beats those decks easy... It has a deck to pray on, meaning it as a place in the meta.
Personaly, i think that Jund is dead. Zoo, storm, living end are not very good MU.
The OP has all the information you could ever want. 2 working stream links, all the coverage and access to event information, as well as a time table going over when the streams start, by day, by major time zone.
The OP has all the information you could ever want. 2 working stream links, all the coverage and access to event information, as well as a time table going over when the streams start, by day, by major time zone.
Thank you both. Any idea if the youtube streaming will be up and where I could find it (the official streaming and twitch streaming haven't been working on my computer)?
So with Storm getting a Top 8 and 2 Top 16's this PT does that bump it up to proven?
I think that it might need one more top 16, but I'm not sure (I'm confident that it will get another top 16 by the time the forum is reorganized again). Either way, it won't get moved until the next banned list update.
So, when do the quarterfinals start? Also, will the streaming on youtube be working again?
Can't answer you about the stream (it was iffy for me all day) but quarterfinals start at 4 AM eastern time tomorrow morning.
Glad to hear a Merfolk deck top 16'd (if true). People have been writing the deck off all weekend and I don't see why. With the exception of affinity, I can't think of any particularly bad matchups amongst the most popular decks. And Blue Moon seems like an essential bye for Merfolk. Counterspells and non-basic land hate are dead against Merfolk and that's all Blue Moon is.
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Did you come here for the sake of the Dharma? Or did you come here for the sake of a chair?
Incidentally, I want to motion for the deck to be renamed to Red Tide.
Also, a brief aside: In the Alara/Zendikar season, in between Worldwake and Rise, UW control managed precisely 0 top 8s until the very last week of the season (where it won 3 major tournaments in a row, in the last week before Rise came out). However, a rigorous statistical analysis of online win rates by archetype on TCGPlayer (see William Spaniel's Power Rankings articles at the time) found that UW Control managed a win percentage of over 70% at first, eventually falling to 59% at the end of the season. This made it by far the best deck by win percentage in the format (Jund hovered around 53% the entire time). The only decks even close to it at any point were Naya and White Weenie, neither of which ever managed to pass it. It was demonstrably the best deck in the format, by the only metric that matters: match wins. Why is that relevant? Because it shows that putting up results, especially if you only count top 8s or god forbid only count wins at GPs, pro tours, and even if you include SCG Opens (not relevant here) and PTQs, is a TERRIBLE way to determine if a deck is good. The sample size is minuscule, the amount of randomness involved is immense, and it's strongly influenced by the choices the pros make, since their playskill and team testing gives them a better chance of a top 8 even if they choose a weaker deck. Statistical analysis of match win rates, assuming a large enough randomized sample of games, is infinitely better. If there isn't a good enough sample available, you can divide top 8 presence by overall presence in the field, or day 2 presence by day 1 presence. That needs a decent sample as well, but a much smaller one, and it's still more accurate that just raw results.
You may also know me as the guy in the art of Dark Confidant. No, not Bob Maher, the OTHER one.
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Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
Over all, this meta is a bit skewed. But thats good. We've seen some decks, and what new decks should look like. MTGO will take those lists and prefect them. Soon well have the diverse meta up and running again. what really maters is the next protour, the one in like 2 weeks. Thats where people are going to take the hard work the "Pros" did and put it to use.
Im curious what its UWR matchup is. Does turning off colonnades really destroy UWR? What do you guys think? If it has an even UWR matchup i could see this deck becoming a more permanent thing. If it can't beat UWR it probably will fall off the radar quite a bit.
It seems at least even against WUR. It has a similar amount of counterspells, its creatures are out of the bolt range, and it can end the game faster than WUR Control.
When do the quarter finals start?
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
affinity
pod
UWr
UW
zoo
splinter twin
living end
a bunch of other combo decks like adnauseum and amulet
storm
scapeshift
jund
blue moon
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
Jund managed to make it into the top 16.
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
I'm just going by what Izzetmage said.
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
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Thank you both. Any idea if the youtube streaming will be up and where I could find it (the official streaming and twitch streaming haven't been working on my computer)?
I think that it might need one more top 16, but I'm not sure (I'm confident that it will get another top 16 by the time the forum is reorganized again). Either way, it won't get moved until the next banned list update.
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
Can't answer you about the stream (it was iffy for me all day) but quarterfinals start at 4 AM eastern time tomorrow morning.
Glad to hear a Merfolk deck top 16'd (if true). People have been writing the deck off all weekend and I don't see why. With the exception of affinity, I can't think of any particularly bad matchups amongst the most popular decks. And Blue Moon seems like an essential bye for Merfolk. Counterspells and non-basic land hate are dead against Merfolk and that's all Blue Moon is.
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
While this is true, it does have a high amount of counterspells.
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.