None of these have been posted here in a while, but I calculated it so I thought I'd share in case people are still interested.
This is for physical English USA-printed product. There is generally also English Belgium-printed product (e.g. distributed in the U.K.) that doesn't follow this pattern. This is from only about 3 boxes, so there may be a few transpositions I haven't detected yet.
Healer’s Hawk
Wishcoin Crab
Sure Strike
Collar the Culprit
Dazzling Lights
Fire Urchin
Ledev Guardian
Disdainful Stroke
Barging Sergeant
Tenth District Guard
Leapfrog
Fearless Halberdier
Sworn Companions
Maximize Altitude
Torch Courier
Hunted Witness
Unexplained Disappearance
Cosmotronic Wave
Intrusive Packbeast
Radical Idea
Goblin Locksmith
Loxodon Restorer
Wishcoin Crab
Sure Strike
Righteous Blow
Vedalken Mesmerist
Ornery Goblin
Skyline Scout
Wall of Mist
Wojek Bodyguard
Take Heart
Dimir Informant
Rubblebelt Boar
Collar the Culprit
Passwall Adept
Maximize Velocity
Healer’s Hawk
Dazzling Lights
Fire Urchin
Intrusive Packbeast
Maximize Altitude
Barging Sergeant
Tenth District Guard
Disdainful Stroke
Torch Courier
Hunted Witness
Vedalken Mesmerist
Fearless Halberdier
Righteous Blow
Leapfrog
Goblin Locksmith
Ledev Guardian
Unexplained Disappearance
Cosmotronic Wave
Sworn Companions
Wall of Mist
Wojek Bodyguard
Take Heart
Radical Idea
Ornery Goblin
Loxodon Restorer
Dimir Informant
Rubblebelt Boar
Skyline Scout
Passwall Adept
Maximize Velocity
Crushing Canopy
Barrier of Bones
Generous Stray
Bartizan Bats
Devkarin Dissident
Vicious Rumors
Vigorspore Wurm
Severed Strands
Wild Ceratok
Child of Night
Urban Utopia
Burglar Rat
Wary Okapi
Moodmark Painter
Hitchclaw Recluse
Douser of Lights
Pack’s Favor
Veiled Shade
Kraul Foragers
Bartizan Bats
Portcullis Vine
Never Happened
Crushing Canopy
Barrier of Bones
Devkarin Dissident
Vicious Rumors
Generous Stray
Severed Strands
Wild Ceratok
Spinal Centipede
Vigorspore Wurm
Burglar Rat
Pack’s Favor
Child of Night
Urban Utopia
Bartizan Bats
Portcullis Vine
Douser of Lights
Kraul Foragers
Moodmark Painter
Wary Okapi
Veiled Shade
Vigorspore Wurm
Never Happened
Hitchclaw Recluse
Barrier of Bones
Devkarin Dissident
Vicious Rumors
Crushing Canopy
Severed Strands
Generous Stray
Spinal Centipede
Wild Ceratok
Child of Night
Wary Okapi
Douser of Lights
Urban Utopia
Moodmark Painter
Pack’s Favor
Veiled Shade
Kraul Foragers
Burglar Rat
Portcullis Vine
Never Happened
Hitchclaw Recluse
Spinal Centipede
Gravitic Punch
Dimir Locket
Centaur Peacemaker
Darkblade Agent
Devious Cover-Up
Erstwhile Trooper
Skyknight Legionnaire
Whisper Agent
Candlelight Vigil
Sonic Assault
Rhizome Lurcher
Fresh-Faced Recruit
Mephitic Vapors
Blade Instructor
Command the Storm
Capture Sphere
Golgari Locket
Maniacal Rage
Hired Poisoner
Vernadi Shieldmate
Hypothesizzle
Prey Upon
Hammer Dropper
Dimir Locket
Luminous Bonds
Candlelight Vigil
Piston-Fist Cyclops
Pitiless Gorgon
Fresh-Faced Recruit
Artful Takedown
Sumala Woodshaper
Devious Cover-Up
Rhizome Lurcher
Skyknight Legionnaire
Darkblade Agent
Centaur Peacemaker
Whisper Agent
Capture Sphere
Erstwhile Trooper
Maniacal Rage
Hired Poisoner
Blade Instructor
Sonic Assault
Golgari Locket
Command the Storm
Mephitic Vapors
Luminous Bonds
Vernadi Shieldmate
Piston-Fist Cyclops
Pitiless Gorgon
Hammer Dropper
Artful Takedown
Sumala Woodshaper
Hypothesizzle
Prey Upon
Gravitic Punch
Watcher in the Mist
Pause for Reflection
Rosemane Centaur
Izzet Locket
Deadly Visit
Ironshell Beetle
Parhelion Patrol
Garrison Sergeant
Muse Drake
Selesnya Locket
Dead Weight
Undercity Uprising
Direct Current
Gateway Plaza
Goblin Electromancer
Siege Wurm
Boros Locket
Notion Rain
Pause for Reflection
Watcher in the Mist
Selesnya Locket
Direct Current
Izzet Locket
Deadly Visit
Ironshell Beetle
Rosemane Centaur
Garrison Sergeant
Muse Drake
Gateway Plaza
Dead Weight
Undercity Uprising
Parhelion Patrol
Boros Locket
Siege Wurm
Goblin Electromancer
Notion Rain
Selesnya Locket
Watcher in the Mist
Pause for Reflection
Rosemane Centaur
Garrison Sergeant
Deadly Visit
Izzet Locket
Direct Current
Ironshell Beetle
Muse Drake
Gateway Plaza
Dead Weight
Undercity Uprising
Parhelion Patrol
Boros Locket
Siege Wurm
Goblin Electromancer
Notion Rain
The 5/6 short-print is Gravitic Punch.
For people new to collation, here's an overview. (Note, this is mostly the same for all large sets since Shards of Alara.) Basically, half of packs contains A, B, and C1, and the other half contain A, B, and C2. C1 packs generally have 2-3 cards from A, then 2 cards B, then 5-6 cards from C1. C2 packs generally have 4 cards from A, 2 cards from B (but occasionally 3 or 4), and 2-4 cards from C2. If there is a foil, one of the runs will be shorter (although I've never seen A go down to 1 card).
In this set, A contains White, Blue and Red cards and B contains Green and Black cards. The colors follow a repeating pattern. C1 and C2 contain multi-colored cards, colorless cards, and the remainder of the mono-colored commons. Generally, the stronger limited commons tend to be in C1 and C2, but exceptions can apply.
The way the sheet math works is that there are two 11 by 11 sheets. The first sheet contains run A (66 cards) and run C1 (55 cards). Run A consists of 33 distinct cards each appearing twice, and C1 consists of 27 distinct cards each appearing twice plus one card appearing once. The second sheet contains Run B (66 cards) and run C2 (55 cards). Run B consists of 22 distinct cards each appearing three times, and C2 consists of 18 distinct cards each appearing three times plus another copy of the singleton from C1. The sheets are printed in a 3:2 ratio, so between 3 copies of the first sheet and 2 copies of the second sheet, each common appears 6 times except for the singleton shared between C1 and C2 which only appears 5 times. This is the 5/6 short-print. It is slightly less common than the other commons in the set.
Sometimes packs deviate slightly from the print-runs. The most common deviation is that two adjacent cards can be swapped. (This can also occur between the last card in a run for one pack and the first first card in the same run for the following pack.) This generally seems to happen between the first two cards in a row on the sheet, or, more rarely, between the second and third card in a row. When possible, I've marked runs as "aligned" meaning that the first card I write is (probably) the first card in a row. This means in an aligned sequence, swaps will tend to happen between 1 and 2, 12 and 13, 23 and 24, etc, or more rarely between 2 and 3, 13 and 14, etc.
The next most common error is that sometimes a single card might be skipped. This seems to happen to the last card in a row, so if the run is aligned, it may happen to card 11, 22, 33, etc.
(Info on these errors is pretty new, so I probably don't understand it perfectly yet.)
Thanks to Medussa and Nima for their previous work on collation. I mostly just did grunt work.
Empirical GRN data is taken mostly Bad Boy Gaming and Magic4ever on YouTube.
I actually don't play limited that competitively myself, I just think it's interesting, so please take my suggestions with a grain of salt. (And if anyone has other ideas, feel free to share!)
It looks like some of the most valuable commons in the set are Artful Takedown, Dead Weight, Deadly Visit, Luminous Bonds, and Watcher in the Mist, so I'll focus on those. Of course, it will be important to have a good idea of what cards people are actually likely to first-pick. Especially this can come into play when analyzing false-positives that can occur if someone took another card near your "marker" card (and if the card you were expecting wasn't in the pack to begin with anyway).
Artful Takedown always appears before Sumala Woodshaper in C1. That means if a pack has Sumala Woodshaper, it will also have Artful Takedown about 81% of the time. (This number means that the chance of a false negative -- someone taking Artful Taking but you don't notice because Sumala Woodshaper wasn't in the pack -- is the complement, around 19%. There will be more false negatives for C2 cards because C1 runs in packs are longer.) Also, you can check if there are any other cards first-pickable that occur in a 6-card run with Sumala Woodshaper. These cards could be false positives (meaning that you see Sumala Woodshaper and guess that Artful Takedown was taken, but actually something else was taken). (Maybe Skyknight Legionnaire if anything?) But remember, for a false positive, not only does someone have to pick another card, but also there also can't be an Artful Takedown in the pack which is already somewhat unlikely. There could also be a false positive if someone took a card from A or B, but you can check for yourself and see if there are any cards there that seem first-pickable (and this can be noticed in other ways sometimes like A or B having the wrong number of cards or the wrong color sequence). Also, if the pack is still in order and you see another C2 card before Sumala Woodshaper, then you can be extra sure that Artful Takedown was taken. You don't necessarily have to remember the specific cards to do this. My experience is that just paying attention while opening lots of packs, you can pretty quickly get a good feeling for what cards are in A and B (especially remembering that A is all mono-red/mono-white/mono-blue and B is all mono-green/mono-black). But even if you haven't memorized A and B, just knowing that B is green/black is good enough here since the other cards preceeding Sumala Woodshaper are not mono-green/mono-black.
Dead Weight always appears before Undercity Uprising in C2. Since this is C2, the correlation is a little bit weaker, maybe around 75%. None of the other noted cards are near enough Undercity Uprising to be in the same pack. As before, if Dead Weight is missing, and the other card before Undercity Uprising isn't mono-green/mono-black it is C2, so almost surely Dead Weight is taken.
Deadly Visit appears always next to Izzet Locket in C2, but it can be on either side. Also, note that Watcher in the Mist can also appear in the same pack as Izzet Locket, although it is not as likely. This could cause confusion.
Luminous Bonds doesn't have a consistent neighbor. It does always appear two cards before Piston-Fist Cyclops as you noted. However, this means the correlation is weaker (down to around 63%). Artful Takedown can also appear with Piston-Fist Cyclops, but afterwards. So, if you do see with two C1 cards before it but not Luminous Bonds, then that's pretty sure. But note, one of these cards could be Mephitic Vapors, a mono-black C1 card, so don't confuse it with B. (It can still be obvious for other reasons like if there are non mono-green or mono-black cards between Mephitic Vapors and the rest of the B sequence, or if Mephitic Vapors is the seoncd black card in a row since B usually alternates, or if the supposed B sequence is too long -- it should be 2 B cards with C1, or maybe 1 if there's a foil, although most foils are in C2 packs).
Watcher in the Mist is always next to Pause for Reflection in C2, although it can be on either side. But, note that Pause for Reflection can also appear with Deadly Visit, even without Izzet Locket.
Hopefully this gives a good idea what kind of things to look for. Of course, the more you can keep in your head (even beyond what I've outlined), the more sure you could be of the picks. If someone could memorized the whole sequences, it would be possible to frequently narrow down the possibilities to a single card (barring collation irregularities), and if not a single cards, then no more than maybe 4-6 in the worst case. (And most of those are probably not likely picks.) I guess you can decide for yourself how much you think it helps, and how much is worth trying to remember. Note that much of what I've written isn't stuff you need to remember necessarily rather than justification of why it would be useful. It's important to know that false positives and false negatives can happen, but some of the more detailed info probably isn't useful in the moment.
Also, you can try checking out Nima's videos on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/user/fooz2916). He hasn't done a video for Guilds of Ravnica (yet?) but his other videos could still give you some idea what kind of things are helpful to look for.
This is for physical English USA-printed product. There is generally also English Belgium-printed product (e.g. distributed in the U.K.) that doesn't follow this pattern. This is from only about 3 boxes, so there may be a few transpositions I haven't detected yet.
The 5/6 short-print is Gravitic Punch.
For people new to collation, here's an overview. (Note, this is mostly the same for all large sets since Shards of Alara.) Basically, half of packs contains A, B, and C1, and the other half contain A, B, and C2. C1 packs generally have 2-3 cards from A, then 2 cards B, then 5-6 cards from C1. C2 packs generally have 4 cards from A, 2 cards from B (but occasionally 3 or 4), and 2-4 cards from C2. If there is a foil, one of the runs will be shorter (although I've never seen A go down to 1 card).
In this set, A contains White, Blue and Red cards and B contains Green and Black cards. The colors follow a repeating pattern. C1 and C2 contain multi-colored cards, colorless cards, and the remainder of the mono-colored commons. Generally, the stronger limited commons tend to be in C1 and C2, but exceptions can apply.
The way the sheet math works is that there are two 11 by 11 sheets. The first sheet contains run A (66 cards) and run C1 (55 cards). Run A consists of 33 distinct cards each appearing twice, and C1 consists of 27 distinct cards each appearing twice plus one card appearing once. The second sheet contains Run B (66 cards) and run C2 (55 cards). Run B consists of 22 distinct cards each appearing three times, and C2 consists of 18 distinct cards each appearing three times plus another copy of the singleton from C1. The sheets are printed in a 3:2 ratio, so between 3 copies of the first sheet and 2 copies of the second sheet, each common appears 6 times except for the singleton shared between C1 and C2 which only appears 5 times. This is the 5/6 short-print. It is slightly less common than the other commons in the set.
Sometimes packs deviate slightly from the print-runs. The most common deviation is that two adjacent cards can be swapped. (This can also occur between the last card in a run for one pack and the first first card in the same run for the following pack.) This generally seems to happen between the first two cards in a row on the sheet, or, more rarely, between the second and third card in a row. When possible, I've marked runs as "aligned" meaning that the first card I write is (probably) the first card in a row. This means in an aligned sequence, swaps will tend to happen between 1 and 2, 12 and 13, 23 and 24, etc, or more rarely between 2 and 3, 13 and 14, etc.
The next most common error is that sometimes a single card might be skipped. This seems to happen to the last card in a row, so if the run is aligned, it may happen to card 11, 22, 33, etc.
(Info on these errors is pretty new, so I probably don't understand it perfectly yet.)
Thanks to Medussa and Nima for their previous work on collation. I mostly just did grunt work.
Empirical GRN data is taken mostly Bad Boy Gaming and Magic4ever on YouTube.
That said, are there rules of thumb that we can use with this information to make our drafting better?
Such as, if a common is missing and there is a piston-fist cyclops then you can be confident that a luminous bonds was taken.
I actually don't play limited that competitively myself, I just think it's interesting, so please take my suggestions with a grain of salt. (And if anyone has other ideas, feel free to share!)
It looks like some of the most valuable commons in the set are Artful Takedown, Dead Weight, Deadly Visit, Luminous Bonds, and Watcher in the Mist, so I'll focus on those. Of course, it will be important to have a good idea of what cards people are actually likely to first-pick. Especially this can come into play when analyzing false-positives that can occur if someone took another card near your "marker" card (and if the card you were expecting wasn't in the pack to begin with anyway).
Artful Takedown always appears before Sumala Woodshaper in C1. That means if a pack has Sumala Woodshaper, it will also have Artful Takedown about 81% of the time. (This number means that the chance of a false negative -- someone taking Artful Taking but you don't notice because Sumala Woodshaper wasn't in the pack -- is the complement, around 19%. There will be more false negatives for C2 cards because C1 runs in packs are longer.) Also, you can check if there are any other cards first-pickable that occur in a 6-card run with Sumala Woodshaper. These cards could be false positives (meaning that you see Sumala Woodshaper and guess that Artful Takedown was taken, but actually something else was taken). (Maybe Skyknight Legionnaire if anything?) But remember, for a false positive, not only does someone have to pick another card, but also there also can't be an Artful Takedown in the pack which is already somewhat unlikely. There could also be a false positive if someone took a card from A or B, but you can check for yourself and see if there are any cards there that seem first-pickable (and this can be noticed in other ways sometimes like A or B having the wrong number of cards or the wrong color sequence). Also, if the pack is still in order and you see another C2 card before Sumala Woodshaper, then you can be extra sure that Artful Takedown was taken. You don't necessarily have to remember the specific cards to do this. My experience is that just paying attention while opening lots of packs, you can pretty quickly get a good feeling for what cards are in A and B (especially remembering that A is all mono-red/mono-white/mono-blue and B is all mono-green/mono-black). But even if you haven't memorized A and B, just knowing that B is green/black is good enough here since the other cards preceeding Sumala Woodshaper are not mono-green/mono-black.
Dead Weight always appears before Undercity Uprising in C2. Since this is C2, the correlation is a little bit weaker, maybe around 75%. None of the other noted cards are near enough Undercity Uprising to be in the same pack. As before, if Dead Weight is missing, and the other card before Undercity Uprising isn't mono-green/mono-black it is C2, so almost surely Dead Weight is taken.
Deadly Visit appears always next to Izzet Locket in C2, but it can be on either side. Also, note that Watcher in the Mist can also appear in the same pack as Izzet Locket, although it is not as likely. This could cause confusion.
Luminous Bonds doesn't have a consistent neighbor. It does always appear two cards before Piston-Fist Cyclops as you noted. However, this means the correlation is weaker (down to around 63%). Artful Takedown can also appear with Piston-Fist Cyclops, but afterwards. So, if you do see with two C1 cards before it but not Luminous Bonds, then that's pretty sure. But note, one of these cards could be Mephitic Vapors, a mono-black C1 card, so don't confuse it with B. (It can still be obvious for other reasons like if there are non mono-green or mono-black cards between Mephitic Vapors and the rest of the B sequence, or if Mephitic Vapors is the seoncd black card in a row since B usually alternates, or if the supposed B sequence is too long -- it should be 2 B cards with C1, or maybe 1 if there's a foil, although most foils are in C2 packs).
Watcher in the Mist is always next to Pause for Reflection in C2, although it can be on either side. But, note that Pause for Reflection can also appear with Deadly Visit, even without Izzet Locket.
Hopefully this gives a good idea what kind of things to look for. Of course, the more you can keep in your head (even beyond what I've outlined), the more sure you could be of the picks. If someone could memorized the whole sequences, it would be possible to frequently narrow down the possibilities to a single card (barring collation irregularities), and if not a single cards, then no more than maybe 4-6 in the worst case. (And most of those are probably not likely picks.) I guess you can decide for yourself how much you think it helps, and how much is worth trying to remember. Note that much of what I've written isn't stuff you need to remember necessarily rather than justification of why it would be useful. It's important to know that false positives and false negatives can happen, but some of the more detailed info probably isn't useful in the moment.
Also, you can try checking out Nima's videos on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/user/fooz2916). He hasn't done a video for Guilds of Ravnica (yet?) but his other videos could still give you some idea what kind of things are helpful to look for.