With Searing Blood above Fall. (I think in practice I probably end up taking Conflagration above Bolt most P1P1s as well, but I think conceptually I agree with you.)
Fated conflagration vs bolt of keranos? How does fall of hammer fit in with the other burn spells as P1s?
That's a good one. I'd take Fall of the Hammer over either of them pretty easily. I *think* I'd take Conflagration over Bolt - 5 damage to a creature is almost always relevant so I don't have to cast it on turn 4 or anything.
Well, what else have I taken? If I've taken a powerful card of either color, I'm going to take the appropriately-colored spell, as the gap in power between the cards isn't high enough to warrant branching into a new color. If I've taken only cards of a single other color (or this is P1P1), I'm taking the Asphyxiate, which is the more powerful spell (and there are no good black commons in BNG anyway, so I can't be passing anything else relevant). Same applies if I've already taken powerful red and black spells, unless I went Forgestoker Dragon into 2 other copies of Asphyxiate, in which case I might diversify and hedge a bit with the Bolt.
I had the Fated Conflagration vs Bolt of Keranos pick a couple weeks ago. My instincts were that Bolt was better but I wanted to try out the rare so I went with Fated and ended up regretting it. There were several times during the draft it was stuck in my hand without enough red to cast it, and I was even running a 12/5 split in favor of mountains. The fact that it can't go to the dome is significant, too.
If it's midway through the pack I would probably base it off what color I was more solidly in at the time. Color considerations aside I would probably go with Asphyxiate. The ability to kill anything outweighs the smaller window for usage in my opinion.
This has happened to me and to another person, and both of us went with the removal. Frank Karsten's draft order suggests we go with the flier, and some people I've asked think so too.
I just can't justify picking most things over 4cc unconditional removal that ramps you...
I actually posited that exact pick on the last page. It's one of the few interesting picks I've had all format long. I took Ornitharch, and I more or less stand behind it, though I understand taking Gild.
This has happened to me and to another person, and both of us went with the removal. Frank Karsten's draft order suggests we go with the flier, and some people I've asked think so too.
I just can't justify picking most things over 4cc unconditional removal that ramps you...
I"ve faced the same pick myself and went with gild. Not sure if that's correct.
Spiteful Returned and I don't think it's close. Things quickly grow too big for Drown to stop (if they weren't already too big naturally). Spite on the other hand is a fairly cheap bestow who pumps damage by quite a bit and alot of that damage is very hard to stop.
Searing Blood isn't very good in this set for similar reasons that Drown is ho-hum. Often Blood just sits in your hand (occasionally you can't play it based on RR). Fated C. on the other hand has played out very well for me in the two drafts I was passed it in. Got me past Nessian Asp (basically ending the game) twice. Killed a Elspeth I could have never hoped to beat and I once used it on a 1/2 creature to push through a lethal attack.
1. Fated C. 2. Fall of the Hammer 3. Bolt 4. S. Blood
True, but your opponent getting to choose the mode makes it a bit worse than all that.. BNG printed a few sweepers for the birds, and even a Coastline Chimera can throw a wrench in the works. I do think it's close (hence the posting,) but Arbiter's CA engine and reliability put it slightly ahead.
Yes, we know that Tribute makes a card slightly worse than either of its forms. The odds of that actually impacting a game with Ornitharch aren't even remotely high, unlike other tribute cards that can just straight up miss or are big vanilla guys.
I'd take Glimpse, too, unless I was already building a slow control deck (which you likely won't even know if you have that option).
Fall is the best of the red removal spells, I think, and I'd take Bolt over Fated, probably. Not going to the face is a massive flaw in a burn spell and the one turn wait might make the difference against a fast creature deck.
Huh, I would say Drown in Sorrow over Spiteful Returned myself, and I actually wouldn't even think about it much. I like Spiteful Returned, but it is a blank often enough that I don't think of it as a windmill slam or anything. Small sample size and all, but I don't think I've ever been sorry to draw a drown in sorrow. In my experience its always done something, and sometimes it does a *lot*. Specifically it can really wreck a R/W aggressive deck off to a fast start with a lot of smaller threats, which is something that black controllish decks can often have a lot of trouble with (deathtouchers, bounce if paired w/blue, and sip usually give them ways to deal with the voltrons).
Yes, we know that Tribute makes a card slightly worse than either of its forms. The odds of that actually impacting a game with Ornitharch aren't even remotely high, unlike other tribute cards that can just straight up miss or are big vanilla guys.
This is classic hyperbole. The odds against your opponent being able to maneuver Ornitharch into an average-at-best play are not negligible.
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Yes, we know that Tribute makes a card slightly worse than either of its forms. The odds of that actually impacting a game with Ornitharch aren't even remotely high, unlike other tribute cards that can just straight up miss or are big vanilla guys.
This is classic hyperbole. The odds against your opponent being able to maneuver Ornitharch into an average-at-best play are not negligible.
Except they are, particularly given the card choice we were presented with. What ways do you maneuver it to be an average play? When you have removal, sure, but that affects Arbiter and basically every other bomb creature, too and is hardly relevant to this discussion. Besides that, the only time the option actually really matters is when they have some number of small fliers/reach guys that can deal with the 1/1s and 3/3s, but not the 5/5 - which actually is fairly negligible. You understand that even at its absolute worst, you can't argue that it's not a 3/3 flier for 5 with at least slight upside much of the time. Since when is a 3/3 flier for 5 with upside an average play? It is quite literally never a below average play.
(Clearly a choice between Chorus of the Tides and Elite Skirmisher, but when I typed that out I had to prove to myself again there was really nothing else worth taking.)
Quote from Jermo48 »
It is quite literally never a below average play.
You need to ease up on your liberal use of the word "literally."
Besides that, the only time the option actually really matters is when they have some number of small fliers/reach guys that can deal with the 1/1s and 3/3s, but not the 5/5 - which actually is fairly negligible. You understand that even at its absolute worst, you can't argue that it's not a 3/3 flier for 5 with at least slight upside much of the time. Since when is a 3/3 flier for 5 with upside an average play? It is quite literally never a below average play.
There are tons of 3 power (or better) fliers/reach in the set as well as quite a few toughness 4 or better fliers/reach (even at common, whether we're talking Nessian Asp, Prescient Chimera, or even just a Coastline Chimera. And that's not even getting into bestow/heroic). Either of those can handle an 3/3 Ornitharch.
(Clearly a choice between Chorus of the Tides and Elite Skirmisher, but when I typed that out I had to prove to myself again there was really nothing else worth taking.)
Quote from Jermo48 »
It is quite literally never a below average play.
You need to ease up on your liberal use of the word "literally."
When is it a below average play? They could have a torpor orb and it'd still be an average play (a 3/3 flyer with no upside for 5 is a fine play in limited). Literally has uses, even if some people misuse it. Unless you think it's misused because you're imagining some absurd scenario where having a better creature is actually a worse play.
As for your question, I'd take Chorus. I'd much rather start moving in on BU control than an aggressive BW deck if that's the way the packs come.<p class="merged-comment"><i>3/24/2014 9:53:05 PM</i><br/>
Besides that, the only time the option actually really matters is when they have some number of small fliers/reach guys that can deal with the 1/1s and 3/3s, but not the 5/5 - which actually is fairly negligible. You understand that even at its absolute worst, you can't argue that it's not a 3/3 flier for 5 with at least slight upside much of the time. Since when is a 3/3 flier for 5 with upside an average play? It is quite literally never a below average play.
There are tons of 3 power (or better) fliers/reach in the set as well as quite a few toughness 4 or better fliers/reach (even at common, whether we're talking Nessian Asp, Prescient Chimera, or even just a Coastline Chimera. And that's not even getting into bestow/heroic). Either of those can handle an 3/3 Ornitharch.
Excuse me, but did I say Ornitharch was unbeatable? There's a massive chasm between "average-at-best" and "unbeatable." I'm also not sure what point you're even trying to make. Go watch a few BTT draft games on CFB. You're going to see two things. 1) that Ornitharch wins games he's played at least as much as any other uncommon/common and far more than some rares. 2) that there are far, far more board states where the opponent has no reach/flier that can stop a 3/3 (even ignoring the value of still having 5 power of fliers on defense and three chump blockers for one card) than there are where they do.</p>
Even if I were willing to concede that there were "literally" no situations where a 5/5 flier is a below-average play, I fail to see how that's an argument for taking it over Gild.
Out of the pack mentioned on the previous page, I'll take Elite Skirmisher over Chorus and Snake. Nothing in that pack sends a signal or is anything more than "just playable", so I'd go for the card that leaves me in the best spot if more of that color comes around.
Oh Daisy: yuck. The reasonable picks seem to be Snake, Chorus, and Excoriate. I've found that Excoriate has generally overperformed for me and BW control seems to be a thing now, so I'd probably go with that. I certainly wouldn't fault the other two, or even the Skirmisher, though since white heroic cards are so overdrafted jumping into white for just a so-so one is something I usually try to avoid (the BW control deck tends to want other cards - not that I'd avoid a Wingsteed Rider but I don't need one for that deck to work). Worth noting that 3 of the next 5 or 6 picks are likely to be blue (but don't put too much weight on it as none of them are necessarily going to put anyone in that color).
Even if I were willing to concede that there were "literally" no situations where a 5/5 flier is a below-average play, I fail to see how that's an argument for taking it over Gild.
I don't think he is, necessarily... this has become a bit jumbled, since we're all discussing a bunch of picks willy-nilly, but I think the recent Ornitharch debate was Jermo taking umbrage when I suggested that Arbiter vs. Ornitharch was more complex than a ratio of evasive power to mana cost.
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Even if I were willing to concede that there were "literally" no situations where a 5/5 flier is a below-average play, I fail to see how that's an argument for taking it over Gild.
I wasn't talking about the Ornitharch versus Gild debate. I'd love to hear when a 5/5 flier for 5 is a below-average limited play, though. In cube?
Well, if your opponent has an Elspeth out, that's one. Or Vanquish the Foul in their deck. Uncommon scenarios, true, but that's why we don't use the word "literally."
The larger point is that, yes, Ornitharch is a very good card, and no one is arguing otherwise. Five evasive power for five mana is, by definition, an above average card. However, it's not a slam pick over everything in the set, and it's frequent enough that an opponent can handle one of the modes that it becomes a little deeper than "dies to removal." A 3/3 flier for five mana is nice to have on the board, but that sort of thing wheels.
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I didn't know I was supposed to be ranking Blood as well. In that case my list would be the same as Voynich's.
That's a good one. I'd take Fall of the Hammer over either of them pretty easily. I *think* I'd take Conflagration over Bolt - 5 damage to a creature is almost always relevant so I don't have to cast it on turn 4 or anything.
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If it's midway through the pack I would probably base it off what color I was more solidly in at the time. Color considerations aside I would probably go with Asphyxiate. The ability to kill anything outweighs the smaller window for usage in my opinion.
This has happened to me and to another person, and both of us went with the removal. Frank Karsten's draft order suggests we go with the flier, and some people I've asked think so too.
I just can't justify picking most things over 4cc unconditional removal that ramps you...
Born of the Gods has been a real dud, huh?
I"ve faced the same pick myself and went with gild. Not sure if that's correct.
1. Fated C. 2. Fall of the Hammer 3. Bolt 4. S. Blood
Yes, we know that Tribute makes a card slightly worse than either of its forms. The odds of that actually impacting a game with Ornitharch aren't even remotely high, unlike other tribute cards that can just straight up miss or are big vanilla guys.
I'd take Glimpse, too, unless I was already building a slow control deck (which you likely won't even know if you have that option).
Fall is the best of the red removal spells, I think, and I'd take Bolt over Fated, probably. Not going to the face is a massive flaw in a burn spell and the one turn wait might make the difference against a fast creature deck.
This is classic hyperbole. The odds against your opponent being able to maneuver Ornitharch into an average-at-best play are not negligible.
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Except they are, particularly given the card choice we were presented with. What ways do you maneuver it to be an average play? When you have removal, sure, but that affects Arbiter and basically every other bomb creature, too and is hardly relevant to this discussion. Besides that, the only time the option actually really matters is when they have some number of small fliers/reach guys that can deal with the 1/1s and 3/3s, but not the 5/5 - which actually is fairly negligible. You understand that even at its absolute worst, you can't argue that it's not a 3/3 flier for 5 with at least slight upside much of the time. Since when is a 3/3 flier for 5 with upside an average play? It is quite literally never a below average play.
What do you take out of this second pack?
Setessan Starbreaker
Forsaken Drifters
Excoriate
Heroes' Podium (FOIL)
Chorus of the Tides
Felhide Brawler
Reckless Reveler
Grisly Transformation
Snake of the Golden Grove
Elite Skirmisher
Kraken of the Straits
Eternity Snare
Satyr Firedancer
You need to ease up on your liberal use of the word "literally."
There are tons of 3 power (or better) fliers/reach in the set as well as quite a few toughness 4 or better fliers/reach (even at common, whether we're talking Nessian Asp, Prescient Chimera, or even just a Coastline Chimera. And that's not even getting into bestow/heroic). Either of those can handle an 3/3 Ornitharch.
When is it a below average play? They could have a torpor orb and it'd still be an average play (a 3/3 flyer with no upside for 5 is a fine play in limited). Literally has uses, even if some people misuse it. Unless you think it's misused because you're imagining some absurd scenario where having a better creature is actually a worse play.
As for your question, I'd take Chorus. I'd much rather start moving in on BU control than an aggressive BW deck if that's the way the packs come.<p class="merged-comment"><i>3/24/2014 9:53:05 PM</i><br/>
Excuse me, but did I say Ornitharch was unbeatable? There's a massive chasm between "average-at-best" and "unbeatable." I'm also not sure what point you're even trying to make. Go watch a few BTT draft games on CFB. You're going to see two things. 1) that Ornitharch wins games he's played at least as much as any other uncommon/common and far more than some rares. 2) that there are far, far more board states where the opponent has no reach/flier that can stop a 3/3 (even ignoring the value of still having 5 power of fliers on defense and three chump blockers for one card) than there are where they do.</p>
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I don't think he is, necessarily... this has become a bit jumbled, since we're all discussing a bunch of picks willy-nilly, but I think the recent Ornitharch debate was Jermo taking umbrage when I suggested that Arbiter vs. Ornitharch was more complex than a ratio of evasive power to mana cost.
My Decks:
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I wasn't talking about the Ornitharch versus Gild debate. I'd love to hear when a 5/5 flier for 5 is a below-average limited play, though. In cube?
The larger point is that, yes, Ornitharch is a very good card, and no one is arguing otherwise. Five evasive power for five mana is, by definition, an above average card. However, it's not a slam pick over everything in the set, and it's frequent enough that an opponent can handle one of the modes that it becomes a little deeper than "dies to removal." A 3/3 flier for five mana is nice to have on the board, but that sort of thing wheels.
My Decks:
EDH: Sygg, River Cutthroat , Road to Scion
Grimgrin, Corpseborn
Modern: Polytokes
IRL: Progenitus Polymorph , Goblins
Just a friendly reminder that I will drive this car off a bridge