In belcher's defense however, it did get 10th in Las Vegas!
It still gets decent results... sometimes!
7-15 SCG St. Louis: 2nd place
7-22 SCG Las Vegas: 8th place
8-26 SCG Denver: 2nd place
10-21 SCG Indianapolis: 10th place
10-28 SCG New Orleans: 5th place
11-11 SCG Dallas: 11th place
11-11 SCG Dallas: 19th place
11-11 SCG Dallas: 22nd place
12-16 SCG Los Angeles: 17th place
It also got around 16th-22nd place in both the Magic Online Championships and GP Ghent a few months back.
It's definitely not a tier 1 deck, and like you said, it does struggle against blue. Miracles, BUG, and Esper Stoneblade are all very well positioned right now. Someone has to carry the torch though! We carry the element of surprise.
I don't blame you for setting aside the deck. It's my primary deck, but I as well am working on other decks because it depends where I go. My usual spot is hot for combo and aggro, but other stores in the area are all about Daze, Spell Pierce, and FOW.
I have a handful of friends who are going to GP Denver. I decided to opt out; I decided I'm going to use my time and money towards the Modern PTQ season instead (a format I feel more confident in). Is anyone else going? I might lend my Belcher deck to a friend who needs a deck if they can't finish theirs.
3 Burning Wish
3 Empty the Warrens
4 Goblin Charbelcher
Sideboard:
4 Autumn's Veil
4 Carpet of Flowers
1 Forest
1 Mirri's Guile
1 Sylvan Library
Wishboard:
1 Empty the Warrens
1 Grapeshot
1 Infernal Tutor
1 Tendrils of Agony
---
Here's a quick summary of what I faced and how I fared
Round 1 - Merfolk - (Won 2-0)
Round 2 - U/W Helm/RIP Combo - (Won 2-1)
Round 3 - Omniscience - (Won 2-1)
Round 4 - BUG (Lost 0-2)
Round 5 - Death and Taxes (Won 2-1)
Round 6 - B/R/W Zombies (Won 2-1)
Round 7 - Sneak/Show (Won 2-1)
Round 8 - Aggro Loam (Lost 0-2)
Round 9 - Deadguy Ale (ID to assure mutual top 32)
After 7 rounds I was 6-1-0 in matches and looking for my win-and-in. In Round 8 I was paired up against my friend Tony DeVeyra, playing aggro loam. We discussed an ID and I decided I wanted to play it out, since Belcher is favored in the match. Tony won the die roll and I took a mulligan to 6 (no win conditions in my opening 7). He leads with T1 Deathrite Shaman, pass. I go LG -> Taiga, Chrome Mox imprinting SSG, Chrome Mox imprinting ESG, Lotus Petal, play Charbelcher. Seems good, right? Tony responds on his turn by Wastelanding my Taiga, getting a mana from it with the shaman, and blowing up both of my Chrome Moxes with an EE for 0. Seems bad, right? Next turn he pulses my Belcher and I'm too far behind to recover. Game 2 I punted by holding back a Chrome Mox when I was storming for Goblins. I anticipated him blowing up my Goblins, so I wanted the Chrome Mox for a future attack, but his Deathrite Shamans seriously swung the match in his favor - block a goblin and gain 2 life negates 3 attacking goblins each turn, and if I had played out the Chrome Mox (with nothing to imprint upon it) I would have done exactly the 4 extra damage needed to kill him. I learned the hard way just how good that shaman is.
I'm very disappointed that I missed out on the Top 8, but at least I lost to a friend who knows and plays his deck well and not to some scrub sporting the RUG/BUG Delver flavor-of-the-week garbage that these events are rife with. My other loss was to Jack Fogle in Round 4, who ended up winning the whole event.
Some other memorable plays of the day:
Round 2 vs. U/W RIP/Helm combo - Game 3 I make a bunch of Goblins and she Detention Spheres them after taking a bunch of damage. I have Forest, Taiga in play, and my next two topdecks are Carpet of Flowers followed by Belcher. Better to be lucky than good!
Round 3 vs. Omniscience - Game 2 I lose to triple thoughtseize with force of will backup. Game 3 I decide to keep a hand with no win conditions because, well, they're just gonna get thoughtseized anyway. Slow rolled him with ESG/SSG beats and win off a late ETW for 6.
---
Some comments about the direction this thread has taken, and my sideboard choices:
- Joe, thank you for writing that article on Belcher. My first experience playing this deck was at a Knight Ware event that I showed up to hungover and deckless. I borrowed Ben Perry's and had a blast. I hadn't thought too much about changing the maindeck except for the addition of Probes (when NPH was printed) and a brief stint with Reforge the Soul last summer (which by the way, is total garbage; even as a Wish target, Diminishing Returns is better). Your article is thought-provoking and convinced me to drop one win condition from the standard 11 in the wish build; as you can see my maindeck above is -1 Burning Wish and +1 Pyretic Ritual. In my experience yesterday, there was no point at which I wished the Pyretic Ritual was a Burning Wish, and I didn't see any triple-win-condition auto-mulligan hands like I sometimes do with 11 in the deck.
- I disagree strongly about cutting Chrome Moxes; if you're gonna cut any at all, play no less than 3. The deck absolutely needs permanent mana sources to beat blue decks in games 2 and 3, and Chrome Mox is one of our best (i.e. it doesn't die to Wasteland).
- By the way, I implore all of you playing a Taiga or Bayou or whatever other duals you're playing in the board to switch to a basic forest. It is invincible (i.e. un-wastelandable) and has won me more games than any sideboard card besides the 4th ETW.
- 3 or 4 is the correct number of Carpet of Flowers to play in the board, depending on the matchups you expect. I wouldn't bring more than 3 in against Show and Tell decks or Canadian Thresh, because they operate on so few Islands and you need to beat them fast. Yesterday I never brought in all 4, but I would definitely want all 4 against U/W Miracles.
- Veil is disgustingly good but I have yet to board in all 4, so maybe one could be cut to free up a sideboard slot.
- Sylvan Library is also awesome and helps you recover from getting Thoughtseized on T1 or Hymned on T2. A lot of the time, Belcher can lose to B/X discard decks on the basis of the die roll, and Library gives you some serious recovery power. I was going to play two in the board but Jacob Kory convinced me to switch one to a Mirri's Guile at the last second. Guile was also good, and the difference in mana cost is relevant. I might try cutting a Veil to get the second Sylvan Library back in the board, because nothing matches it in terms of raw card drawing power within our colors.
- About the man-plan: it seems interesting, but none of the creatures people run in the sideboard impress me all that much. How exactly are we supposed to take advantage of Demigod's CIP ability if we can't reliably get all the Demigods in the graveyard? T1 Seething Song out Demigod is pretty weak, when you could just be winning the game on T1. One card that interests me for a man-plan is Hidden Gibbons. Anybody thought about that?
That's all for now folks, thanks for reading.
Quoted from a post on TheSource.
It only took 3-4 years for Belcher players to catch on to Carpet of Flowers tech at an SCG. I'd actually prefer the 2nd library to Guile. Guile is better if you want to play Reforge the Soul since you rearrange the cards in the upkeep while Library works out of the draw phase. Forest is definitely a strong SB choice I can get behind. If you want to cast Carpet, Veil, ie. your entire sideboard, you need that basic forest in there to ensure you the perp.
I'd probably replace Tendrils/IT with something like Shatterstorm/Reverent Silence. Tendrils/IT rarely get used.
The list looks good though. I can agree on 10 vs. 11 win conditions being a good configuration.
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This is my current build. After extensive testing, I like having the redundancy monolith provides, the ability to drop belcher turn 1 alongside monolith is great, unlike other rituals. Also, in topdeck mode against control, it gives LED some extra reach by being able to untap the monolith so we can cast belchers off of it. Mulligans are so much easier when you dont need to rely on cantrips.
I've just recently rebuilt belcher and while I know my build is far from optimal (just kinda threw it together from some stuff I had around) I was wondering how many kill spells you guys recommend, right now I have 7 should I up that with burning wishes to 11 or is 7 good?
I've just recently rebuilt belcher and while I know my build is far from optimal (just kinda threw it together from some stuff I had around) I was wondering how many kill spells you guys recommend, right now I have 7 should I up that with burning wishes to 11 or is 7 good?
The minimum I would run is 8. There are 2 builds (not including the old r/g/b build), those that run burning wish and those that don't. Burning wish builds run 10-11 wincons, where the "all-in" version runs 8 with 12 cantrip abilities.
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Standard: Fog Maze
Modern: WUBRG Infect
Legacy: WUBRG Belcher
5 Color control, aggro and combo. Taste the Rainbow!
ok I'll switch over to the burning wish build, thanks. As for the anti-blue board is 6 REB effects enough or do I need the swarms? and last What tricks or sideboard stuff do you guys use to play through discard? I'm playing this in a control heavy meta as one of my side decks so it's far from the best place to play it but I want to give it a fighting chance.
Personally 6 is plenty. Carpet of flowers is an mvp versus blue. Against black, I would wishboard past in flames, possibly trash for treasure and/or reclaim. Sylvan library is an mvp here.
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Standard: Fog Maze
Modern: WUBRG Infect
Legacy: WUBRG Belcher
5 Color control, aggro and combo. Taste the Rainbow!
I run 8 protection cards, mostly for a little flexibility, 2x Carpet of Flowers, 2x Pyroblast, and 4x Xantid Swarm. Generally I'm only siding in 4-6 of them at any one time depending on the matchup.
Right now the things I play are (in this order) Delver(RUG/RU), GB control, Goblins, Dredge, Burn, Esper blade, & Mircales. From what I'm guessing I can race Dredge all day every day so am I right to guess I don't need any GY hate? Next for Goblins do I need the pyroclasm? I should be able to race them since their control hits creatures and lands neither of which really bother me. If I do need it then should I go pyroclasm or cave-in. Any other suggestions? I'm not going to lie I kind of want to be a jerk and have 4 vizzerdrix in my sideboard just for the comedy of it, but that's only if I'm going to have SB slots that will never be used.
Definitely include a Goblin War Strike in your wishboard, it's saved me multiple times when an opponent can lock me up with a random card, or when I need to punch a few damage through and can't.
Tendrils of Agony/Infernal Tutor are my least used SB cards, but they've each had a game or two where they've done exactly what I needed.
Okay, I have been testing the crap out of this deck and there is no doubt in my mind that it needs more draw power. I can't tell you how many games I have mana up the ying-yang but can't dig enough to pull a Wish, Belcher or EtW. Morphose and Probe are not enough.
I realize that Serum and Sleight, being in blue, makes it tough to cast them unless we also have a petal out (Mox isn't reliable enough because we don't have enough cards of that color) but something has to be done to make this deck more consistent.
You literally almost have to mull until you have at least 1 win con in your opening hand. Sometimes that takes you down quite a ways and this deck can't afford to be at card disadvantage and still have much chance of going off.
What do you guys think? Does Belcher need a restructure because I don't think this deck cuts it as it is now.
Okay, I have been testing the crap out of this deck and there is no doubt in my mind that it needs more draw power. I can't tell you how many games I have mana up the ying-yang but can't dig enough to pull a Wish, Belcher or EtW. Morphose and Probe are not enough.
I realize that Serum and Sleight, being in blue, makes it tough to cast them unless we also have a petal out (Mox isn't reliable enough because we don't have enough cards of that color) but something has to be done to make this deck more consistent.
You literally almost have to mull until you have at least 1 win con in your opening hand. Sometimes that takes you down quite a ways and this deck can't afford to be at card disadvantage and still have much chance of going off.
What do you guys think? Does Belcher need a restructure because I don't think this deck cuts it as it is now.
I remember way back when in Time spiral block we played Street wraith for the extra cycle, won't boost storm count but it does help sift through your deck. I'm running one right now as probe #5 and it hasn't been terrible.
I may be the only person to play zero cantrips. Everyone I have discussed this deck with in person are surprised and question it, yet after playtesting they understand the merit behind it.
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Standard: Fog Maze
Modern: WUBRG Infect
Legacy: WUBRG Belcher
5 Color control, aggro and combo. Taste the Rainbow!
Okay, I have been testing the crap out of this deck and there is no doubt in my mind that it needs more draw power. I can't tell you how many games I have mana up the ying-yang but can't dig enough to pull a Wish, Belcher or EtW. Morphose and Probe are not enough.
Are you keeping hands without a win condition? That's the only way I can see how you would have problems. Otherwise, the only way the deck really has problems is if you're playing against counterspells. We keep hands with one of our kill spells (usually there's 11 for most lists - 4 Belcher, 4 Wish, 3 Empty the Warrens) and X mana/ramp/get there - it curves out so well I don't see how you're having problems. Unless you keep drawing hands with too much ramp and no win-cons, or too many win-cons and not enough ramp???
You literally almost have to mull until you have at least 1 win con in your opening hand. Sometimes that takes you down quite a ways and this deck can't afford to be at card disadvantage and still have much chance of going off.
I have no problems mulling though. Maybe out of 4 rounds one night I have that awkward 4 or 5 card hand, but that rarely happens. Just bad luck on your part? It's a 60 card deck, and usually we pack 4 Belcher, 4 Wish, and 3 Empty the Warrens. We just have to hit one of those and X cards. We can take slow hands against Burn, Goblin, and aggro decks in general if we need a few free draws.
What do you guys think? Does Belcher need a restructure because I don't think this deck cuts it as it is now.
The deck doesn't cut it right now because at large events blue control decks (Esper Stoneblade, BUG, Miracles) is really strong. Playing Belcher in a meta where aggro and other combo decks is a good meta call. I honestly think the deck is fine and I love shuffling it up. It takes a rough mulligan once or twice a night, but that's just rotten luck. It happens to every deck. The sheer amount of how many times we can kill on turns 1 or 2 is just insane.
Are you keeping hands without a win condition? That's the only way I can see how you would have problems. Otherwise, the only way the deck really has problems is if you're playing against counterspells. We keep hands with one of our kill spells (usually there's 11 for most lists - 4 Belcher, 4 Wish, 3 Empty the Warrens) and X mana/ramp/get there - it curves out so well I don't see how you're having problems. Unless you keep drawing hands with too much ramp and no win-cons, or too many win-cons and not enough ramp???
I have no problems mulling though. Maybe out of 4 rounds one night I have that awkward 4 or 5 card hand, but that rarely happens. Just bad luck on your part? It's a 60 card deck, and usually we pack 4 Belcher, 4 Wish, and 3 Empty the Warrens. We just have to hit one of those and X cards. We can take slow hands against Burn, Goblin, and aggro decks in general if we need a few free draws.
The deck doesn't cut it right now because at large events blue control decks (Esper Stoneblade, BUG, Miracles) is really strong. Playing Belcher in a meta where aggro and other combo decks is a good meta call. I honestly think the deck is fine and I love shuffling it up. It takes a rough mulligan once or twice a night, but that's just rotten luck. It happens to every deck. The sheer amount of how many times we can kill on turns 1 or 2 is just insane.
I agree. When I get even just 1 win con, the deck practically plays out in 1 or 2 turns. It's just nuts. I am running 4 Belcher, 4 Wish and 3 EtW, but I just have the worst luck with opening hands and mulling.
Otherwise, I love the deck. You're right, in an aggro meta this thing just destroys everything. Control is rough. No question about it.
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It still gets decent results... sometimes!
7-15 SCG St. Louis: 2nd place
7-22 SCG Las Vegas: 8th place
8-26 SCG Denver: 2nd place
10-21 SCG Indianapolis: 10th place
10-28 SCG New Orleans: 5th place
11-11 SCG Dallas: 11th place
11-11 SCG Dallas: 19th place
11-11 SCG Dallas: 22nd place
12-16 SCG Los Angeles: 17th place
It also got around 16th-22nd place in both the Magic Online Championships and GP Ghent a few months back.
It's definitely not a tier 1 deck, and like you said, it does struggle against blue. Miracles, BUG, and Esper Stoneblade are all very well positioned right now. Someone has to carry the torch though! We carry the element of surprise.
I don't blame you for setting aside the deck. It's my primary deck, but I as well am working on other decks because it depends where I go. My usual spot is hot for combo and aggro, but other stores in the area are all about Daze, Spell Pierce, and FOW.
I have a handful of friends who are going to GP Denver. I decided to opt out; I decided I'm going to use my time and money towards the Modern PTQ season instead (a format I feel more confident in). Is anyone else going? I might lend my Belcher deck to a friend who needs a deck if they can't finish theirs.
ex-Moderator
Legacy love.
It only took 3-4 years for Belcher players to catch on to Carpet of Flowers tech at an SCG. I'd actually prefer the 2nd library to Guile. Guile is better if you want to play Reforge the Soul since you rearrange the cards in the upkeep while Library works out of the draw phase. Forest is definitely a strong SB choice I can get behind. If you want to cast Carpet, Veil, ie. your entire sideboard, you need that basic forest in there to ensure you the perp.
I'd probably replace Tendrils/IT with something like Shatterstorm/Reverent Silence. Tendrils/IT rarely get used.
The list looks good though. I can agree on 10 vs. 11 win conditions being a good configuration.
U Solidarity U
Luck is a residue of design.
I'm an aspiring Psychedelic Trance musician. Please feel free to enjoy my sense of life:
http://soundcloud.com/vacrix
Modern: WUBRG Infect
Legacy: WUBRG Belcher
5 Color control, aggro and combo. Taste the Rainbow!
Modern: WUBRG Infect
Legacy: WUBRG Belcher
5 Color control, aggro and combo. Taste the Rainbow!
However, its good in the U-combo mirror w/ FoW, ie. Spiral Tide, SnT, Dream Halls, Hive Mind, etc.
And its great against Merfolk.
U Solidarity U
Luck is a residue of design.
I'm an aspiring Psychedelic Trance musician. Please feel free to enjoy my sense of life:
http://soundcloud.com/vacrix
Modern: WUBRG Infect
Legacy: WUBRG Belcher
5 Color control, aggro and combo. Taste the Rainbow!
Modern: WUBRG Infect
Legacy: WUBRG Belcher
5 Color control, aggro and combo. Taste the Rainbow!
4x Chrome Mox
4x Goblin Charbelcher
4x Grim Monolith
4x Lion's Eye Diamond
4x Lotus Petal
Creatures: 12
4x Elvish Spirit Guide
4x Simian Spirit Guide
4x Tinder Wall
4x Desperate Ritual
4x Pyretic Ritual
4x Seething Song
Land: 1
1x Taiga
Sorceries: 15
4x Burning Wish
3x Empty the Warrens
4x Land Grant
4x Rite of Flame
4x Carpet of Flowers
1x Empty the Warrens
4x Guttural Response
2x Pyroblast
1x Pyroclasm
1x Reverent Silence
1x Shattering Spree
1x Taiga
Modern: WUBRG Infect
Legacy: WUBRG Belcher
5 Color control, aggro and combo. Taste the Rainbow!
Legacy:
RGWBUDredgeUBWGR
:symrg:Belcher:symrg:
WD&TW
Affinity
WGriffinsW (pauper)
U/thopter comboU/ (peasant)
:symbg:Moosebite:symbg: (peasant)
RGobo tokensR (peasant)
R slide R (peasant)
:symur:pingers:symur:
The minimum I would run is 8. There are 2 builds (not including the old r/g/b build), those that run burning wish and those that don't. Burning wish builds run 10-11 wincons, where the "all-in" version runs 8 with 12 cantrip abilities.
Modern: WUBRG Infect
Legacy: WUBRG Belcher
5 Color control, aggro and combo. Taste the Rainbow!
Legacy:
RGWBUDredgeUBWGR
:symrg:Belcher:symrg:
WD&TW
Affinity
WGriffinsW (pauper)
U/thopter comboU/ (peasant)
:symbg:Moosebite:symbg: (peasant)
RGobo tokensR (peasant)
R slide R (peasant)
:symur:pingers:symur:
Modern: WUBRG Infect
Legacy: WUBRG Belcher
5 Color control, aggro and combo. Taste the Rainbow!
My wishboard:
Infernal Tutor
Tendrils of Agony
Hull Breach
Past in Flames
Goblin War Strike
Empty the Warrens
Pyroclasm
I've toyed with running Regrowth or something similar, but this has served me pretty well in general.
Right now the things I play are (in this order) Delver(RUG/RU), GB control, Goblins, Dredge, Burn, Esper blade, & Mircales. From what I'm guessing I can race Dredge all day every day so am I right to guess I don't need any GY hate? Next for Goblins do I need the pyroclasm? I should be able to race them since their control hits creatures and lands neither of which really bother me. If I do need it then should I go pyroclasm or cave-in. Any other suggestions? I'm not going to lie I kind of want to be a jerk and have 4 vizzerdrix in my sideboard just for the comedy of it, but that's only if I'm going to have SB slots that will never be used.
Legacy:
RGWBUDredgeUBWGR
:symrg:Belcher:symrg:
WD&TW
Affinity
WGriffinsW (pauper)
U/thopter comboU/ (peasant)
:symbg:Moosebite:symbg: (peasant)
RGobo tokensR (peasant)
R slide R (peasant)
:symur:pingers:symur:
Pyroclasm/Cave-In is always a desperation move, but sometimes it's what you need.
I would have something to deal with artifacts and enchantments, Hull Breach, Shattering Spree, and Reverent Silence are all good choices.
Graveyard hate has never been an issue for me.
Definitely include a Goblin War Strike in your wishboard, it's saved me multiple times when an opponent can lock me up with a random card, or when I need to punch a few damage through and can't.
Tendrils of Agony/Infernal Tutor are my least used SB cards, but they've each had a game or two where they've done exactly what I needed.
Modern: WUBRG Infect
Legacy: WUBRG Belcher
5 Color control, aggro and combo. Taste the Rainbow!
I realize that Serum and Sleight, being in blue, makes it tough to cast them unless we also have a petal out (Mox isn't reliable enough because we don't have enough cards of that color) but something has to be done to make this deck more consistent.
You literally almost have to mull until you have at least 1 win con in your opening hand. Sometimes that takes you down quite a ways and this deck can't afford to be at card disadvantage and still have much chance of going off.
What do you guys think? Does Belcher need a restructure because I don't think this deck cuts it as it is now.
Modern: WUBRG Infect
Legacy: WUBRG Belcher
5 Color control, aggro and combo. Taste the Rainbow!
Modern: WUBRG Infect
Legacy: WUBRG Belcher
5 Color control, aggro and combo. Taste the Rainbow!
I remember way back when in Time spiral block we played Street wraith for the extra cycle, won't boost storm count but it does help sift through your deck. I'm running one right now as probe #5 and it hasn't been terrible.
Legacy:
RGWBUDredgeUBWGR
:symrg:Belcher:symrg:
WD&TW
Affinity
WGriffinsW (pauper)
U/thopter comboU/ (peasant)
:symbg:Moosebite:symbg: (peasant)
RGobo tokensR (peasant)
R slide R (peasant)
:symur:pingers:symur:
Modern: WUBRG Infect
Legacy: WUBRG Belcher
5 Color control, aggro and combo. Taste the Rainbow!
Legacy:
RGWBUDredgeUBWGR
:symrg:Belcher:symrg:
WD&TW
Affinity
WGriffinsW (pauper)
U/thopter comboU/ (peasant)
:symbg:Moosebite:symbg: (peasant)
RGobo tokensR (peasant)
R slide R (peasant)
:symur:pingers:symur:
Modern: WUBRG Infect
Legacy: WUBRG Belcher
5 Color control, aggro and combo. Taste the Rainbow!
Are you keeping hands without a win condition? That's the only way I can see how you would have problems. Otherwise, the only way the deck really has problems is if you're playing against counterspells. We keep hands with one of our kill spells (usually there's 11 for most lists - 4 Belcher, 4 Wish, 3 Empty the Warrens) and X mana/ramp/get there - it curves out so well I don't see how you're having problems. Unless you keep drawing hands with too much ramp and no win-cons, or too many win-cons and not enough ramp???
I have no problems mulling though. Maybe out of 4 rounds one night I have that awkward 4 or 5 card hand, but that rarely happens. Just bad luck on your part? It's a 60 card deck, and usually we pack 4 Belcher, 4 Wish, and 3 Empty the Warrens. We just have to hit one of those and X cards. We can take slow hands against Burn, Goblin, and aggro decks in general if we need a few free draws.
The deck doesn't cut it right now because at large events blue control decks (Esper Stoneblade, BUG, Miracles) is really strong. Playing Belcher in a meta where aggro and other combo decks is a good meta call. I honestly think the deck is fine and I love shuffling it up. It takes a rough mulligan once or twice a night, but that's just rotten luck. It happens to every deck. The sheer amount of how many times we can kill on turns 1 or 2 is just insane.
ex-Moderator
Legacy love.
I agree. When I get even just 1 win con, the deck practically plays out in 1 or 2 turns. It's just nuts. I am running 4 Belcher, 4 Wish and 3 EtW, but I just have the worst luck with opening hands and mulling.
Otherwise, I love the deck. You're right, in an aggro meta this thing just destroys everything. Control is rough. No question about it.